Vietnam Says China Backing Down In Oil Rig Dispute

Submitted by Andy Tully via OilPrice.com,

A leading Vietnamese military officer said July 16 that China’s decision to remove a huge oil rig from waters claimed by both countries shows that it is backing down in a dispute that has raged since May.

Maj. Gen. Le Ma Luong told PetroTimes, a Vietnamese news outlet, that China was moving the rig because of Vietnam’s “strong reactions” to its presence in the South China Sea near the Paracel Islands. The region is near the Vietnamese coast but Beijing considers it Chinese territory.

In the interview, Luong dismissed a suggestion by the Voice of Vietnam, a state run news agency, that the rig was being moved to protect it from the approaching Typhoon Rammasun. The general called that “just an excuse.”

The China National Petroleum Corp. said the operation was ending now that the rig had found “signs of oil and gas.” It said the company would assess the findings before deciding on its next steps.

Meanwhile, it said, the rig was being moved to undisputed waters near the Qiongdongnan basin.
In Beijing, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said moving the rig should not be interpreted as a retreat from inclement weather or from Vietnam, but simply that it had completed its work of exploring for oil in the area. It also reiterated the assertion that the Paracel Islands are Chinese territory.

Still, China may be motivated by a desire to improve relations with neighboring Vietnam, according to Bonnie Glaser, who specializes in Asian affairs at the Center for Strategic and International Affairs, a Washington think tank. “It could be a face-saving way to end the over two-month-long standoff with Vietnam,” she said.

Beijing set up the oil rig, the $1 billion Haiyang Shiyou 981, on May 1 in the disputed waters, triggering violent and often deadly demonstrations in Vietnam. There also were daily confrontations at sea between Vietnamese boats that tried to approach the rig and Chinese coast guard vessels sent to protect it.

Regardless of why China withdrew the rig, the move is likely to ease fears harbored by arge majorities of Asians that Beijing’s overall territorial claims could lead to war, according to a survey by the Pew Research Center in Washington.

The poll was conducted in 11 Asian countries from March – even before China moved the oil rig off Vietnam’s coast – to June. In the Philippines, 93 percent of respondents feared war, 85 percent in Japan shared that concern, and 84 percent in Vietnam felt the same.

Fully 83 percent of those surveyed in South Korea, which enjoys warm commercial relations with China, expressed concern for peace in the region, and that worry was shared by 62 percent of respondents in China itself.

All told, Pew reports, majorities in nine of the 11 countries feared military conflict.




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Spot The China Liquidity Crisis

Presented with little comment aside to ask, if everything’s so hunky-dory over in China then why, on the first day in a while that the PBOC decides not to conduct repo operations (i.e. inject a bucketload of cheap money), does the 7-day repo rate (the cost of borrowing money) spike to 6-month highs? (Hint: it’s a rhetorical question)

 

 

Simply put – you can kiss goodbye any hopes of China ceasing its exuberant credit creation… (especially now that the CCFD ponzi scheme has been exposed via Qingdao -and drastically reduced that channel). Reforms are all talk and the bubble will just grow bigger with fewer and fewer attractive outlets for that hot money (now that the US real estate transmission channel has been identified and likely closed)… cue real inflation.




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Citi: “Asset Markets Are Ill-Prepared For Any Risk-Negative Shock”

This is a tricky period for asset markets, warns Citi’s Steven Englander. Positioning still reflects a risk-on view but the risk-on enthusiasm is in EM, equities and Asia rather than peripheral Europe. Investors are still long risk, despite the geopolitical tensions and Fed Chair Yellen’s modest nod to the risk of faster than expected tightening, Englander cautions, concluding that investors continue to anticipate a soft landing despite all the discussion to the contrary.

 

Via Citi’s Steven Englander,

This is a tricky period for asset markets. Positioning still reflects a risk-on view but the risk-on enthusiasm is in EM, equities and Asia rather than peripheral Europe. There has been some buying back of USD against G10 but investors are long Asia Pacific versus USD in its place. Geopolitical developments in Russia/Ukraine and the MidEast are having localized impacts, if that. Investors took note of a somewhat changes Yellen tone, but are treating the Fed as an outer-orbit risk rather than as an asteroid taking dead aim.

The two big risk events are the US CPI and next week’s FOMC. We already saw equities  come off a little today, short and medium term note yields move up, and 10yr Treasury yields fall in line with equities. We suspect that investors will hedge a small part of long risk positions in coming days, but only languidly. They have begun to discount non-press conference meetings as being like the ECB’s non-forecast meetings, unlikely to generate much waves.

Despite the backing up of US two year yields, sideways moves in equities and some strengthening of USD within G10, investors are not really prepared for any sort of fixed income unfriendly event. So we are likely to see modest upside risk-positive response to low inflation or dovish surprises and significant position cutting if expectations of Fed normalizing were brought forward.
 
Consider Figure 1. Below which shows d/d, w/w and MTD currency moves against the USD.  What is surprising, as indicated by the little red arrows, is that all G10 currencies are down versus USD on a MTD basis and generally on a d/d and w/w basis as well. The impression of USD weakness comes because most major EM currencies are stronger, despite geo-political concerns and it is more common for EM to be a high-beta version of G10 than to have the opposite sign.  When we get  high yielders outperforming this way,  we are not in a market afraid of a liquidity squeeze.

Within G10 continental Europe is doing worse than the commodity currencies or UK.

 

The correct interpretation is that investors are still long risk, despite the geopolitical tensions and Fed Chair Yellen’s modest nod to the risk of faster than expected tightening. However they have shifted away from European risk towards even higher beta risk, but risk that is less exposed to economic weakness in the euro zone and fallout from the Russia/Ukraine crisis.

Some of this we can directly measure. Our CitiFX flows show a lot of buying of Asian currencies in recent months, but pace of buying has diminished sharply over the last month.

Figure 2a, 2b: Real money and leveraged have bought a lot of Asian currencies

 

Similarly CitiFX Access shows a that the long Asia position increased sharply in Q2.

 

…and looking the correlation of HFR’s daily macro return index with asset prices the strongest correlation by far remains with equity prices, although there may be some recent hedging of these positions by shorting Treasury notes.
 
Bottom line is that we continue to see investors anticipating a soft landing despite all the discussion to the contrary.




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Possible Epidemic? The Chikungunya Virus Is Starting To Spread In America

Submitted by Michael Snyder of The American Dream blog,

Cases of the chikungunya virus are appearing in the United States at a level that is far higher than anything health officials have seen in recent years, and now there are two confirmed cases of people that have not even traveled out of the country getting the virus.  That means that the chikungunya virus is starting to spread in America, and once it starts spreading it is really hard to stop.  Instead of spreading human to human, this virus actually spreads “person-tomosquito-to-person”.  If you live in an area of the country where there are a lot of mosquitos, you should pay close attention to this article.  You do not want to get the chikungunya virus.  According to Slate, the name of this virus “comes from a Makonde word meaning ‘that which bends up,’ referring to the contortions sufferers put themselves through due to intense joint pain.”  That does not sound fun at all.

Fortunately, the U.S. has not really been affected by this disease in recent years, but an epidemic has already been declared in Puerto Rico, and some experts are now saying that it is only a matter of time before we see one in the United States.

From 2006 to 2013, the largest number of cases of the chikungunya virus in the U.S. in a single year was just 65.

But by July 15th of this year there were already 357 reported cases, and health officials are bracing for the worst.

Of course of biggest concern is what just happened in Florida.  For the first time, health officials have isolated cases of the chikungunya virus that they know were transmitted locally

U.S. health officials on Thursday confirmed two locally acquired cases of chikungunya in Florida. In Puerto Rico, the government has declared an epidemic of the mosquito-borne virus, with reports of more than 200 diagnosed cases since June 25 in San Juan and surrounding areas.

 

On Thursday, the CDC confirmed a 50-year-old male in Palm Beach, Fla. was diagnosed with the virus, and had not recently traveled outside the country. Florida state health officials are also reporting a 41-year-old woman in Miami Dade Country has been diagnosed with locally transmitted chikungunya. The CDC has not yet provided confirmation on the second case. Local transmission occurs when the insect bites a person with the infection and then transmits the virus by biting others.

So if you live in south Florida, you should really be trying to avoid mosquitos right about now.

But Florida is not the only state that is on high alert at this point.

Over in Texas, there have been five confirmed cases of the chikungunya virus so far.  The following is an excerpt about one that was just discovered in Montgomery County

The Montgomery County Public Health District is confirming their first case of the Chikungunya virus.

 

“The individual is a male teenager of Montgomery County who has recently traveled outside of the United States,” said Jennifer Nichols-Contella, Public Information Officer for the Montgomery County Public Health District.

And health officials in Kentucky were quite alarmed when they recently found a confirmed case in their state

“We have been testing our first potential cases of Chikungunya virus in Kentucky residents who recently traveled to areas where the disease is present, and have received confirmation of one positive result so far,” said Dr. Kraig Humbaugh, state epidemiologist and DPH deputy commissioner.

Overall, there are now 30 states that have confirmed cases.  In every case but the two in Florida mentioned above, it involved someone that had traveled internationally and came back…

The Center for Disease Control and state health departments are monitoring cases of Chikungunya, a virus that causes high fever, joint and muscle pain and headaches.

 

The virus has been reported in 153 cases linked to international travel, said Kristen Norlund, CDC spokeswoman, “meaning someone went to a place where the virus was circulating, got infected and then came back.”

 

Louisiana is one of 30 states with confirmed cases in residents who traveled internationally.

With so many cases already, it is going to be really difficult to keep a lid on this outbreak.  All it is going to take is a few well-timed mosquito bites and we could be off to the races.

Fortunately, the chikungunya virus is usually not fatal.  But if you do get it, you will probably remember the experience for the rest of your life

With illness onset, the person develops high fever, chills, and joint pain, followed in some by a rash on the trunk, limbs and face lasting 3-4 days. Muscle and joint pain last about one week. Joint pain is often severe and in some people lasts longer, up to several months.

And just because it is usually not fatal does not mean that there would not be a lot of deaths during a full-blown epidemic.  The following analysis is from an article about the virus by Jeff Danner

The current epidemic in the Dominican Republic may provide some insight.  Since chikungunya struck the Dominican Republic in early April, there have been almost 200,000 cases, an incidence rate of 20 per thousand for this nation of 10 million people.  If the Southeast, with a population approximately 80 million, had the same incidence rate as the Dominican Republic, we would expect 1.5 million cases in the first 100 days of an epidemic.  However, due to widespread availability of insect repellent here and our stay-inside-the-air-conditioned-space lifestyles, our incidence rate is likely to be lower.  For the sake of argument, let’s assume our incidence rate will be 1/3 that of the Dominican Republic.  This would translate to a half a million cases in the first hundred days, and we would then project approximately 10 million cases in the first year.  With chikungunya’s fatality rate of 0.4%, an epidemic of this scale would kill 40,000, with fatalities being disproportionately among the very old and very young.

And the chikungunya virus is not the only virus carried by mosquitos that health officials are alarmed about this summer.

In Massachusetts, officials have confirmed a case of eastern equine encephalitis, which is fatal about a third of the time

The Massachusetts Department of Health just confirmed that a July 15th laboratory test in Plymouth County has tested positive for EEE, a dangerous virus that can cause inflammation of the brain and in one third of cases, death.

 

Even though the only reported case of EEE in Massachusetts was more than 80 miles to our east, our chances in western Massachusetts of getting it just went up. But it probably wouldn’t be the mosquitoes bringing it here.

 

Birds are typically the long range carrier of triple E, taking the disease over many miles. Mosquitoes then bite the birds and become the local source for infection when they bite a human.

For decades, Americans really haven’t had to be concerned about the deadly diseases that are carried by mosquitos that cause so much problems in much of the rest of the world.

But now things are changing.

We are seeing very unusual disease outbreaks all over the planet, and the next great pandemic could be just around the corner.

Over in Africa, one of the worst outbreaks of the ebola virus ever recorded has already killed more than 600 people in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.

If that virus ends up traveling over to the United States, it will make the chikungunya virus look like a Sunday picnic.

It has been a really long time since the U.S. has had to deal with a full-blown health crisis.

Hopefully the chikungunya virus will not turn into one.

But as the globe continues to become a smaller and more interconnected place, experts warn that it is only a matter of time before the next great pandemic hits us.




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MSFT/IBM Boomerang’d As Russia Retaliates, Prepares To Cease Imports Of US IT

With the German economy already suffering (and AMD cutting its outlook), it appears Putin's promise to ensure Obama's action will see retaliation are starting to weigh as much on the rest of the world as Western media suggest US sanctions are weighing on Russia. This time, after blocking foreign cars and Intel/AMD chips, Bloomberg reports the State Duma, Russia’s lower house of parliament, is drafting a bill to require government agencies and state-run enterprises to give preference to local providers of software and hardware. For some context, IBM, Microsoft, HP, Cisco, Oracle, and Germany’s SAP SE had combined revenue of 285 billion rubles ($8.1 billion) from Russia (with 77% coming from government and SOEs). “This all has to do with sanctions,” warned one Russian politician.

 

As Bloomberg reports,

Russia’s parliament is preparing new regulations to reduce its reliance on foreign technology suppliers after the U.S. imposed sanctions against some of its largest companies, a move that could hurt sales at vendors such as Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) and International Business Machines Corp. (IBM)

 

The State Duma, Russia’s lower house of parliament, is drafting a bill to require government agencies and state-run enterprises to give preference to local providers of software and hardware, according to a document from the commission for strategic information systems obtained by Bloomberg News. The paper addresses criteria for tender processes such as favoring products that don’t have imported, licensed components.

 

 

IBM, Microsoft, Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ), Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO), Oracle Corp. (ORCL) and Germany’s SAP SE had combined revenue of 285 billion rubles ($8.1 billion) from Russia last year, according to estimates by the Russian Academy of Sciences included in the commission document. About 77 percent of the sales were contracts from the government and state-controlled companies, it said.

 

With the lack of regulation in post-Soviet Russia that governs the award of technology contracts, foreign vendors account for 67 percent of software used in the country and about 90 percent of hardware, according to the commission. Foreign software may have hidden capabilities such as “bugs” and “backdoors,” giving suppliers access to confidential data, Chernogorov said.

 

“This all has to do with sanctions,” said Andrey Chernogorov, executive secretary of the commission, said in a phone interview. “Given the current international tensions, substituting imports with local software and hardware becomes the key to ensuring self sufficiency.”

*  *  *

As Putin recently opined, the boomerangs are coming home…

“The US is certainly one of the world’s leaders. At some point it seemed that it was the only leader and a uni-polar system was in place. Today it appears that is not the case. Everything in the world is interdependent and once you try to punish someone, in the end you will cut off your nose to spite your face,” he said.




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Tonight on The Independents: MH-17, Israel-Hamas, Immigration Kids, Ending the Fed, Cigarette Chokeholds, Net Roots Comedy, Nanny-State Shopping Carts, John Bolton, Aftershow and More!

Civil. |||Tonight’s live episode of
The
Independents
(Fox Business Network, 9 p.m. ET, 6 p.m. PT,
with re-airs three hours later) features yours truly in the hosting
chair (Mary /Katharine
Ham
will fill in for Kennedy), so this blog post will be
bullet-pointy.

* Michael
Weiss
of The Interpreter will talk all things
MH-17.

* Patrick Byrne of Overstock.com will trash the Federal
Reserve.

* Former U.S.
ambassador
to the United Nations
John Bolton
will assess U.S. diplomatic efforts in the
Israel-Hamas fight.

* The co-hosts will talk about the role that cigarette taxation
had in the police choking-death of Eric Garner.

* Party Panelists Jimmy Failla (comedian) and
Noelle Nikpour
(columnist/GOP strategist) will talk about the immigration crisis,
lefty humor, and nanny state shopping carts.

Follow The Independents on Facebook at http://ift.tt/QYHXdB,
follow on Twitter @ independentsFBN, and
please tweet at us during the show. You can click on this page
for more video of past segments.

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MH17 Will Usher In A Completely New Kind Of War – One The US Cannot Win

Submitted by Simon Black of Sovereign Man blog,

Russians aren’t exactly known for having a great sense of humor. But the language is full of bizarre, often hilarious expressions like “perebrasyvanie kakashkami”.

Literally translated this means “throwing shit”. And it applies right about now—when a bunch of people is standing around blaming one another for something that has gone heinously wrong.

“Heinously wrong” is somewhat of an understatement.

The MH17 disaster is so bad that it’s made people forget about the roving army of fanatics that has taken over half of Iraq and parts of Syria in their quest to build a global caliphate.

This is much bigger. And there’s so much pent up tension between rising powers right now, there’s serious risk of it turning into a much greater conflict.

It seems ironic that the world was in a similar situation exactly a hundred years ago.

After the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo, Austria-Hungary issued a series of ultimatums to the Kingdom of Serbia, and ultimately declared war on July 28, 1914.

Tensions in Europe and around the world were at boiling point. The primacy of the British and other European colonial powers was waning, as recently formed unitary states of Germany and Italy were on the rise.

With so many rising powers, it was inevitable that conflict would ultimately ensue. Even if Franz Ferdinand’s assassination wouldn’t have happened, some other tinder would have lit the fire.

Similar conditions exist today.

Just like a century ago when waning British power invited a power struggle among rising nations, waning US power is creating conflict with Russia, China, etc.

A century ago, they settled it on the battlefield. Everyone knew war would eventually come to Europe. But the great miscalculation was they presumed it would be just another 19th century limited war.

It was anything but.

The great war brought brutal mass killings, bombings, heavy artillery, gassing, etc. And it changed warfare forever.

This time around, the way we conduct war is different. Similarly, leaders are miscalculating, thinking that they can scare their opponents with warships and fighter jets.

But modern warfare isn’t fought with boots on the ground. In 2014, cyberwar and economic war looms.

And this type of war is something that will affect literally every person who is plugged in to the global financial system.

I invite you to explore more with me on this critically important topic in today’s podcast. You can give it a listen here:




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How RenTec Made More Than $34 Billion In Profits Since 1998: “Fictional Derivatives”

Ten days ago Bloomberg reported that as a result of various tax dodges, one of the fastest-trading hedge funds in the US, Jim Simmons’ Renaissance Technologies, had managed to avoid paying ordinary income tax on billions in profits, by classifying trades that often times had a holding period of minutes if not seconds, as a long-term capital gain. As part of this finding, it was reported that there would be a hearing chaired by none other than Carl “Shitty Deal” Levin scheduled for tomorrow morning when yet another tax loophole abused by not only RenTec but all of its high churn and HFT peers (because the “friends and family” Medallion is at its core the original HFT fund) would be exposed for all to see. Moments ago, in advance of tomorrow’s 9:30 am hearing, the permanent subcommittee on investigations released a 93 page report on just how it was that RenTec engaged in the “improper use of this structured financial product, known as basket options.

As the preamble to the report notes:

The report outlines how Deutsche Bank AG and Barclays Bank PLC, over the course of more than a decade, sold financial products known as basket options to more than a dozen hedge funds. From 1998 to 2013, the banks sold 199 basket options to hedge funds which used them to conduct more than $100 billion in trades. The subcommittee focused on options involving two of the largest basket option users, Renaissance Technology Corp. LLC (“RenTec”) and George Weiss Associates.

 

The hedge funds often exercised the options shortly after the one-year mark and claimed the trading profits were eligible for the lower income tax rate that applies to long-term capital gains on assets held for at least a year. RenTec claimed it could treat the trading profits as long term gains, even though it executed an average of 26 to 39 million trades per year and held many positions for mere seconds.

 

Data provided by the participants indicates that basket options produced about $34 billion in trading profits for RenTec alone, and more than $1 billion in financing and trading fees for the two banks.

And considering the topic of tax-evasion and loophole abuse is a rather sensitive and politically-charged one nowadays, to say the least, one can be certain that tomorrow’s hearing, full of sound and fury targeting America’s wealthiest tax evaders, will be quite a spectacle.

The highlights from the report:

For the last decade, the U.S. Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations has presented case histories showing how financial institutions, law firms,  accountants, and others have designed and implemented complex financial structures to take advantage of and, at times, abuse or violate U.S. tax statutes, securities regulations, and accounting rules. This investigation offers yet another detailed case study of how two financial institutions – Deutsche Bank AG and Barclays Bank PLC – developed structured financial products called MAPS and COLT, two types of basket options, and sold them to one or more hedge funds, including Renaissance Technologies LLC and George Weiss Associates, that used them to avoid federal taxes and leverage limits on buying securities with borrowed funds. While that type of option product was identified as abusive in a public memorandum by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) in 2010, taxes have yet to be collected on many of the basket option transactions and its use to circumvent federal leverage limits has yet to be analyzed or halted.

 

The basket option contracts examined by the Subcommittee investigation were used by at least 13 hedge funds to conduct over $100 billion in securities trades, most of which were short-term transactions and some of which lasted only seconds. Yet the resulting short-term profits were frequently cast as long-term capital gains subject to a 20% tax rate (previously 15%) rather than the ordinary income tax rate (currently as high as 39%) that would otherwise apply to investors in hedge funds engaged in daily trading. While the banks styled the trading arrangement as an “option” under which profits from short-term trades would be treated as long term capital gains, in essence, the banks loaned the hedge funds money to finance their trading and allowed them to trade for themselves in highly leveraged positions in the banks’ proprietary accounts and reap the resulting profits. The banks offering the “options” benefited from the financing, trading, and other fees charged to the hedge funds initiating the trades. In the end, the trading conducted by the hedge funds using the basket option accounts was virtually indistinguishable from the trading conducted by hedge funds using their own brokerage accounts, and provided no justification for treating the resulting short-term trading profits as long-term capital gains.

Note that the term “illegal” is not used once in the entire 93-page doc, for the simple reason that this latest tax-evading loophole wasn’t. Instead hedge funds, having the sources to do so, merely scoured the tax code and sitting down with a couple of less than “moral” banks found yet another tax evasion maneuver, as well as a way to implement it, that was available to everyone who could afford to spend millions on the appropriate tax and legal advice. Call it “capital investment” for the New Normal.

Back to the filing, we find what will surely be Carl Levin’s punchline to be used and abused tomorrow: “fictional derivatives.”

The facts indicate that the basket option structures examined in this investigation were devised by sophisticated financial firms to allow clients to circumvent federal taxes and leverage limits. The structures rested on two fictions. The first was that the bank, rather than the hedge fund, owned the assets being traded in the designated option accounts, even though the hedge fund bought and sold the assets, was exposed to all significant risks and rewards, and profited from the trading, with little input from the bank serving as the nominal owner of the assets. In effect, the structure purported to enable the hedge fund to purchase an “option” on its own trading activity, an arrangement that makes no economic sense outside of an effort to bypass federal taxes and leverage limits. The second fiction was that the profits from the trades controlled by the hedge fund could be treated as long-term capital gains, even for trades lasting seconds. That fiction depended upon the hedge fund claiming that the profits came from exercising the “option” rather than from executing the underlying trades. In fact, the “option” functioned as little more than a fictional derivative, permitting the hedge fund to cast short-term capital gains as long-term gains and authorizing financing at levels otherwise legally barred for a customer’s U.S. brokerage account.

And, lo and behold, one of the two main enabling banks of this tax dodge is none other than Barclays, which somehow has managed to get itself involved in virtually every possible financial scandal in the past five years.

The basket options sold by Deutsche Bank AG starting in 1998, and by Barclays Bank PLC since 2002, produced a total of more than $35 billion in trading profits, of which at least $34 billion came from options exercised after more than one year. Most of those profits came from assets which were held for less than one year but which were treated by the hedge funds holding the options as having produced long-term capital gains taxable at the lower long-term capital gains rate. The options were also used by the participating hedge funds to trade on borrowed funds using a leverage ratio of as much as 20:1, versus the much lower federal leverage limit of 2:1 that normally applies to brokerage accounts held by U.S. broker-dealers for their clients. These financially engineered products – which relied on high volume trading, leveraged funds, and artificially lowered tax rates to produce their profits – warrant greater attention from federal tax, securities, and banking regulators to prevent their continued misuse.

Some details on the actual trading strategy, with pictures.

In the basket option contracts examined by the Subcommittee, the bank always appointed the general partner of the hedge fund client to act as the investment advisor for the trading account holding the referenced assets during the duration of the option. Once appointed, the investment adviser exercised complete control over the securities included in the option account, designing its own trading strategy and using the bank’s own facilities to execute the trades. In some cases reviewed by the Subcommittee, the investment advisor used algorithms to engage in a high volume of trading, executing more than a 100,000 transactions per day.

Oops, HFTs. Even assuming you can continue your spotless trading record now that your frontrunning gig has been shown to the entire world, there goes your tax-free lunch.

Many of those trading positions lasted minutes, and the overall composition of the securities basket changed on a second-to-second basis. One basket option account later reviewed by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was found to have experienced 129 million orders in a year. In other cases, the investment adviser purchased securities whose positions remained unchanged for weeks, but all of the basket option accounts reviewed by the Subcommittee were dominated by short-term trading involving assets held less than one year.

 

By acting as the investment adviser, the hedge fund – the option holder – became the party that actually controlled the trading strategy, the timing of trades, and what assets were selected for the referenced account. The hedge fund was also exposed to all significant rewards and risks associated with the trading. The banks claimed that the hedge funds did not bear 100% of the risk of loss, because the banks provided so-called “gap” protection in the event of a catastrophic market failure. That risk was so small, however, that despite, for example, hundreds of millions of trades that took place in the more than 60 basket options held by RenTec over a decade, including during the worst financial crisis in a generation, neither bank was ever required to satisfy a loss due to a market failure.

 

To further minimize the gap risk, the option contract contained several provisions designed to limit trading losses in the account to the 10% premium provided by the hedge fund. The key provision accomplished that objective by specifying a loss threshold – sometimes called a “barrier” or “knockout” amount – which if reached would cause the option to cease to exist, or “knockout,” and trigger the ability of the bank to liquidate the account assets.

 

During the period of the option, the securities transactions were executed in the name of the bank and the resulting securities were held in the bank’s proprietary trading account. The accompanying profits or losses also remained within the account until the option was exercised. The hedge fund chose when to exercise the option. Although the options reviewed by the Subcommittee often had three-year terms and the hedge funds claimed they wanted longer-term financing arrangements, the hedge funds often exercised the options shortly after 12 months. In all cases examined by the Subcommittee, the option accounts paid the profits to the hedge fund option holder.

 

Deutsche Bank developed its basket option product in 1998, naming it the Managed Account Product Structure (MAPS). Over the next 15 years, Deutsche Bank sold 156 MAPS options, of which 96 had terms greater than one year. At their peak, those 96 options had assets with a total initial notional value of about $60 billion. Deutsche Bank sold the MAPS options to 13 hedge funds, including 36 to RenTec. Of those 36 option contracts, the first 29 had terms greater than one year. The MAPS options sold to RenTec produced profits for that hedge fund totaling about $17 billion. The MAPS options sold to all 13 hedge funds produced revenues for Deutsche Bank totaling about $570 million.

 

 

The Barclays’ basket options product was developed in 2002, at the request of RenTec, and was named COLT. Barclays sold 43 COLT options to RenTec, of which 31 had terms greater than one year. At their peak, those 31 COLT options had assets with a total initial notional value of about $62 billion. The COLT options produced trading profits for RenTec totaling about $18.5 billion. They also produced revenues for Barclays totaling about $655 million.

And so on, with all the above complexity driven by a simple motive: to reclassify short-term capital gains into long-term profits, in the process saving about 25% of the absolute profit from any transaction.

What we hope to learn from tomorrow’s hearing is whether it will explain why, even as actual stock trading volumes have plunged in recent years, trading in derivatives has literally exploded. Surely everyone engaging in comparable “basket option” strategies would explain at least a part of it.

 

If nothing else, however, we now know why some of the biggest HFT-related hedge funds in the world: Citadel, Millennium, Balysany and DE Shaw have such an epic regulatory-to-net asset leverage as we showed before: the reason, one as old as time itself: to avoid paying tax. From the report:

In addition to avoiding taxes, the structure was used by the banks
and hedge funds to evade federal leverage limits designed to protect
against the risk of trading securities with borrowed money. Leverage
limits were enacted into law after the stock market crash of 1929, when
stock losses led to the collapse of not only the stock speculators, but
also the banks that lent them money and were unable to collect.

 

Had the hedge funds made their trades in a normal brokerage account,
they would have been subject to a 2-to-1 leverage limit – that is, for
every $2 in total holdings in the account, $1 could be borrowed from the
broker.
But because the option accounts were in the name of the bank,
the option structure created the fiction that the bank was transferring
its own money into its own proprietary trading accounts instead of
lending to its hedge-fund clients.

 

Using this structure, hedge funds piled on exponentially more debt than leverage limits allow, in one case permitting a leverage ratio of 20-to-1. The banks pretended that the money placed into the accounts were not loans to its customers, even though the hedge funds paid financing fees for use of the money. While the two banks have stopped selling basket options as a way for clients to claim long-term capital gains, they continue to use the structures to avoid federal leverage limits.

And as we showed previously:

 

And while we understand the Congressional the fascination with RenTec, created by Jim Simons, the 64th richest man in the world with a $15.5 billion net worth, we wonder why the NY Fed’s (and the PPT’s) very own favorite Spoo-buying counterparty, Citadel, which has a gross leverage of over 9x(!) is not mentioned even once.

Source: Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations




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Gaza Right Now: In Pictures

The death toll among Palestinians from the Israeli offensive in the Gaza Strip reached over 500 on Monday, Gaza health officials said, as the two sides counted their dead following the bloodiest day of fighting so far in the two-week campaign. CBS reports the officials said some 3,150 Palestinians had been wounded. The IDF just announced 7 Israeli soldiers were killed today, raising the Israeli death toll to 25 (including 2 civilians). A glance at the stunning images below beggars belief that world equity markets (and Israel’s) are shrugging at this escalating violence. We assume they ‘believe’ in the power of John Kerry.

 

 

 

And The IDF defends its actions…

 

And then there’s this… an Israeli sniper killing a wounded gaza civilian…

It appears John Kerry’s work is not yet complete…




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Malaysian Airlines In Hot Water Again, This Time For Flying Above War-Torn Syria

Fool me once, shame on you; fly civilains over a war-zone twice, shame on Malaysian Airlines. In what is perhaps the most incredulous news of today (aside from Kerry’s belief that he will make a difference in Gaza) is, as BNO reports, a Malaysia Airlines passenger plane flying from Kuala Lumpur to London flew over Syria on Sunday… The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and other organizations have warned airlines for more than a year to avoid the entire country. “Information from the International Civil Aviation Organization and open source reports of surface-to-air missile firings,” the FAA said in a notice last year, describing the risk to civilian flights as “significant.”

 

Source: FlightRadar24

 

Via BNO,

The log details published by flight tracking website Flightradar24 showed the flight path of Malaysia Airlines flight MH4, an Airbus A380 which departed Kuala Lumpur on early Sunday. The log showed the aircraft flying over Syria, which is in the midst of a raging civil war, from about 1:20 p.m. local time, flying close to the city of Homs.

 

Reports about Flight MH4 flying over Syria garnered the responses of thousands of people on the social networking website Twitter, where the vast majority described the airline’s route as irresponsible. It appeared Flight MH4 was routed over Syria after airspace over eastern Ukraine was closed following the shootdown of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 last week.

 

No airspace restrictions are in place over much of Syria, but the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and other organizations have warned airlines for more than a year to avoid the entire country. “Information from the International Civil Aviation Organization and open source reports of surface-to-air missile firings,” the FAA said in a notice last year, describing the risk to civilian flights as “significant.”

 

There are some local flights going over to Iraq and Lebanon and Jordan, but they are not big airlines or transcontinental flights,” said Flightradar24 co-founder Mikael Robertsson.

 

“So Malaysia Airlines was the first flight I’ve seen going over there for like a year… I know that Iraqi Airways and Syria Air are flying over Syria sometimes. No big airlines.”

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Of course, avoiding the world’s ever-increasing warring nations is not
easy – perhaps it is time to consider trans-polar travel…

But with oil prices so high…

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On the bright side…




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