No, The Plunge In Home Sales Was "Not" Due To Cold Weather

This morning's utter collapse in pending home sales – a 6-sigma miss by 'economists' unaware that it was cold in December – has been ushered away on the back of "weather" reasoning. However, a glance at the chart below confirms this is total bullshit. As Goldman Sachs admits "broad-based declines by region suggest that colder-than-average weather was likely not the primary driver."
 

(h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer )

Via Goldman Sachs,

Pending home sales dropped 8.7% in December (vs. consensus -0.3%), the largest decline since the expiration of the first-time homebuyer tax credit in 2010. Sales declined in the Northeast (-10.3%), West (-9.8%), South (-8.8%), and Midwest (-6.8%).

 

The broad-based declines by region suggest that colder-than-average weather was likely not the primary driver, given slightly warmer-than-average temperatures on the Pacific coast in December.

 

Although a noisy series, the December weakness in pending home sales is an unfavorable indicator for near-term existing home sales, and follows disappointing new home sales already released for the month.

So, if it wasn't the weather… could it be that fast-money has left the bubble and what is left of the real-money mortgage-paying homebuyers are all that remains?


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1fqBSia Tyler Durden

No, The Plunge In Home Sales Was “Not” Due To Cold Weather

This morning's utter collapse in pending home sales – a 6-sigma miss by 'economists' unaware that it was cold in December – has been ushered away on the back of "weather" reasoning. However, a glance at the chart below confirms this is total bullshit. As Goldman Sachs admits "broad-based declines by region suggest that colder-than-average weather was likely not the primary driver."
 

(h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer )

Via Goldman Sachs,

Pending home sales dropped 8.7% in December (vs. consensus -0.3%), the largest decline since the expiration of the first-time homebuyer tax credit in 2010. Sales declined in the Northeast (-10.3%), West (-9.8%), South (-8.8%), and Midwest (-6.8%).

 

The broad-based declines by region suggest that colder-than-average weather was likely not the primary driver, given slightly warmer-than-average temperatures on the Pacific coast in December.

 

Although a noisy series, the December weakness in pending home sales is an unfavorable indicator for near-term existing home sales, and follows disappointing new home sales already released for the month.

So, if it wasn't the weather… could it be that fast-money has left the bubble and what is left of the real-money mortgage-paying homebuyers are all that remains?


    



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Euroskeptic UKIP the UK's Favorite Party

According to a poll conducted by ComRes and
published in the U.K.-based
The Independent on Sunday
, the euroskeptic United
Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) is the U.K.’s favorite political
party and its leader, Nigel Farage, is the second most popular
leader of a major British political party (he follows Prime
Minister David Cameron, the leader of the Conservative Party).

Ed Miliband, the less than awe-inspiring leader of the Labour
Party, and Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg, who has had to deal
with a lot of unfair criticism from ungrateful members of his own
party, are the least favorable political leaders.

Breakdown of the poll results below:


What’s interesting about the popularity of UKIP is that it
could deny the two largest parties (the Conservatives and
Labour) a majority at the next general election, leaving the U.K.
with its second hung parliament in a row. In this May’s European
elections UKIP could do very well by taking advantage of
euroskepticism in the U.K
.

While UKIP may be enjoying some popularity, it is important for
British classical liberals to remember that the party is not,
despite what its constitution says,
a libertarian party. UKIP’s hostility to to free trade and
capitalism was highlighted last year by Farage’s
rhetoric
surrounding
Bulgarian and Romanian immigration
.  

I have written before about how UKIP
is not
a libertarian party, but it is
especially worth highlighting months away from European elections.
The European Union is an institution that is worthy of the mockery
and anger that Farage is known for (see clips below):

However, the hostility Farage and his UKIP colleagues have
towards the undemocratic and regulation-obsessed European Union is
not reason enough for those who calls themselves libertarians to
support UKIP.

I don’t understand the appeal of politics, but if British
libertarians do want to get involved in politics they should not
forget that there are classical liberal or classical
liberal-leaning politicians outside of UKIP. In the Conservative
Party Steve Baker MP,
Alan Duncan MP,
Douglas Carswell MP, and

Daniel Hannan MEP
each have libertarian sympathies. Even in the
Liberal Democrats, a party that is wrongly categorized by many in
the U.S. and the U.K. as being part of “the left,” politicians like
David Laws MP
and other so-called
Orange Bookers
 are sympathetic to competition and economic
liberalism. The exception to this description of the Orange Bookers
is Vince Cable MP, who contributed to The Orange Book but
is more of a social democrat than a Gladstonian liberal.

May is still a few months away
and
recent news

suggests
that the British economy is improving, which may help
the Conservatives and make some people more hesitant to support
UKIP, which includes many disillusioned Conservatives.

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Euroskeptic UKIP the UK’s Favorite Party

According to a poll conducted by ComRes and
published in the U.K.-based
The Independent on Sunday
, the euroskeptic United
Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) is the U.K.’s favorite political
party and its leader, Nigel Farage, is the second most popular
leader of a major British political party (he follows Prime
Minister David Cameron, the leader of the Conservative Party).

Ed Miliband, the less than awe-inspiring leader of the Labour
Party, and Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg, who has had to deal
with a lot of unfair criticism from ungrateful members of his own
party, are the least favorable political leaders.

Breakdown of the poll results below:


What’s interesting about the popularity of UKIP is that it
could deny the two largest parties (the Conservatives and
Labour) a majority at the next general election, leaving the U.K.
with its second hung parliament in a row. In this May’s European
elections UKIP could do very well by taking advantage of
euroskepticism in the U.K
.

While UKIP may be enjoying some popularity, it is important for
British classical liberals to remember that the party is not,
despite what its constitution says,
a libertarian party. UKIP’s hostility to to free trade and
capitalism was highlighted last year by Farage’s
rhetoric
surrounding
Bulgarian and Romanian immigration
.  

I have written before about how UKIP
is not
a libertarian party, but it is
especially worth highlighting months away from European elections.
The European Union is an institution that is worthy of the mockery
and anger that Farage is known for (see clips below):

However, the hostility Farage and his UKIP colleagues have
towards the undemocratic and regulation-obsessed European Union is
not reason enough for those who calls themselves libertarians to
support UKIP.

I don’t understand the appeal of politics, but if British
libertarians do want to get involved in politics they should not
forget that there are classical liberal or classical
liberal-leaning politicians outside of UKIP. In the Conservative
Party Steve Baker MP,
Alan Duncan MP,
Douglas Carswell MP, and

Daniel Hannan MEP
each have libertarian sympathies. Even in the
Liberal Democrats, a party that is wrongly categorized by many in
the U.S. and the U.K. as being part of “the left,” politicians like
David Laws MP
and other so-called
Orange Bookers
 are sympathetic to competition and economic
liberalism. The exception to this description of the Orange Bookers
is Vince Cable MP, who contributed to The Orange Book but
is more of a social democrat than a Gladstonian liberal.

May is still a few months away
and
recent news

suggests
that the British economy is improving, which may help
the Conservatives and make some people more hesitant to support
UKIP, which includes many disillusioned Conservatives.

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The MyRA Propaganda Begins: "A Start To A Secure Retirement" Promises Treasury Secretary

You didn’t think the US could at first slowly, and then all of a sudden, expropriate retirement accounts and invest them in the “no risk, guaranteed return” MyRA Ponzi scheme introduced by Obama during the State of the Union address without lots of behavior-modifying indoctrination in the “friendly press” first now did you? Sure enough, here is the first major propaganda salvo, coming from none other than the US Treasury Secretary, Jack Lew, which will be published tomorrow across the McClatchy media empire.

* * *

Just out from the US Treasury Department, “In an op-ed to be published in the January 31, 2014 editions of McClatchy Newspapers, Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew discusses myRA –  a simple, safe and affordable starter savings account to help low and moderate-income Americans begin building towards a more secure financial future.”

myRA: A start to a secure retirement

Over the past five years, our country has accomplished a number of big things.  The economy has grown stronger after being shaken to the core by the worst recession in our lifetimes.  Our businesses have created more than 8 million jobs.  The financial system is more resilient, with better protections for consumers and investors.  And investments in domestic energy production have helped put the promise of American energy independence in sight. 

In the meantime, health care costs have grown at their slowest rates in years while millions of families now have access to affordable health care coverage so they are not one hospital visit away from falling into financial ruin.  Our auto industry is surging even as home values are rebounding.  And the federal deficit has been cut by more than half.

So we have made clear progress.  But we all understand that we are not where we want to be yet.  Too many Americans cannot find a job.  Too many Americans who do have a job are not getting paid enough to support their families and make ends meet.  And too many Americans do not have the skills they need to succeed in today’s economy. 

As President Barack Obama made clear in his State of the Union address, it is time to focus on restoring opportunity for all.  That means helping to make sure more Americans can take part in our growing economy and build some economic security for the long term.  To get that done, we are putting forward real, concrete solutions to our most pressing problems—from college affordability and job training to fair wages and a stable retirement. 

Now, when it comes to retirement, you would think that the vast majority of working Americans would be putting some money away for their future.  But the truth is, many are not.  For millions of working men and women, it is not easy to save for the long haul.  Many employers do not offer a retirement plan.  And setting up a retirement account and maintaining it can often be too difficult, expensive and time-consuming. 

The statistics paint a stark picture.  Only about half of all workers have access to an employer-based retirement plan, such as a 401(k).  And left on their own, few workers save.  It is estimated that fewer than one out of 10 eligible workers actually contribute to an IRA.

Still, every American deserves the chance to build a secure retirement.  That is why the Obama administration has designed a new way for working Americans to start saving for the future.  This program, which will begin later this year, is called myRA or My Retirement Account. 

This account is designed to help low- and middle-income workers, who are too often overlooked or ignored, begin saving for retirement.  We are talking about the waitress who is holding down two part-time jobs to support her kids; the recent graduate who landed a job but is grappling with student loans; the janitor who has never been given the chance to invest in a retirement account.

Here is how myRA, which is simple, safe and affordable, will work.

You will be able to start saving with an initial deposit of as little as $25 and contribute as little as $5 each payday.  If an employer chooses to participate, contributions are made through automatic payroll deductions, making them hassle-free. 

There are no fees—100% of any contribution goes into the account and is invested in a Treasury securityThat means it will be backed by the full faith and credit of the United States, will earn the same interest rate that is available to federal employees for their retirement savings, and the balance will never go down.

Finally, myRA is not tied to any one employer—it belongs to the worker, not the workplace.  In other words, the account is portable and can be easily rolled into a Roth IRA.  And if myRA savers ever need to, they can withdraw their contributions tax-free, at any time.

MyRA is a specific way in which we can help hardworking Americans save for the future.  But there are other things we can do.  In particular, the President has consistently called on Congress to help tens of millions of middle class Americans save for the future by opening up access to automatic IRAs in the workplace. 

And we will continue to look for ways to help increase economic security, strengthen the middle class, and provide more ladders of opportunity into the middle class.  That is how we will help make sure every American can take part in this recovery.  And that is how we will help usher in a stronger, more prosperous future for our country.

Jacob J. Lew is the secretary of the Treasury.


    



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The MyRA Propaganda Begins: “A Start To A Secure Retirement” Promises Treasury Secretary

You didn’t think the US could at first slowly, and then all of a sudden, expropriate retirement accounts and invest them in the “no risk, guaranteed return” MyRA Ponzi scheme introduced by Obama during the State of the Union address without lots of behavior-modifying indoctrination in the “friendly press” first now did you? Sure enough, here is the first major propaganda salvo, coming from none other than the US Treasury Secretary, Jack Lew, which will be published tomorrow across the McClatchy media empire.

* * *

Just out from the US Treasury Department, “In an op-ed to be published in the January 31, 2014 editions of McClatchy Newspapers, Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew discusses myRA –  a simple, safe and affordable starter savings account to help low and moderate-income Americans begin building towards a more secure financial future.”

myRA: A start to a secure retirement

Over the past five years, our country has accomplished a number of big things.  The economy has grown stronger after being shaken to the core by the worst recession in our lifetimes.  Our businesses have created more than 8 million jobs.  The financial system is more resilient, with better protections for consumers and investors.  And investments in domestic energy production have helped put the promise of American energy independence in sight. 

In the meantime, health care costs have grown at their slowest rates in years while millions of families now have access to affordable health care coverage so they are not one hospital visit away from falling into financial ruin.  Our auto industry is surging even as home values are rebounding.  And the federal deficit has been cut by more than half.

So we have made clear progress.  But we all understand that we are not where we want to be yet.  Too many Americans cannot find a job.  Too many Americans who do have a job are not getting paid enough to support their families and make ends meet.  And too many Americans do not have the skills they need to succeed in today’s economy. 

As President Barack Obama made clear in his State of the Union address, it is time to focus on restoring opportunity for all.  That means helping to make sure more Americans can take part in our growing economy and build some economic security for the long term.  To get that done, we are putting forward real, concrete solutions to our most pressing problems—from college affordability and job training to fair wages and a stable retirement. 

Now, when it comes to retirement, you would think that the vast majority of working Americans would be putting some money away for their future.  But the truth is, many are not.  For millions of working men and women, it is not easy to save for the long haul.  Many employers do not offer a retirement plan.  And setting up a retirement account and maintaining it can often be too difficult, expensive and time-consuming. 

The statistics paint a stark picture.  Only about half of all workers have access to an employer-based retirement plan, such as a 401(k).  And left on their own, few workers save.  It is estimated that fewer than one out of 10 eligible workers actually contribute to an IRA.

Still, every American deserves the chance to build a secure retirement.  That is why the Obama administration has designed a new way for working Americans to start saving for the future.  This program, which will begin later this year, is called myRA or My Retirement Account. 

This account is designed to help low- and middle-income workers, who are too often overlooked or ignored, begin saving for retirement.  We are talking about the waitress who is holding down two part-time jobs to support her kids; the recent graduate who landed a job but is grappling with student loans; the janitor who has never been given the chance to invest in a retirement account.

Here is how myRA, which is simple, safe and affordable, will work.

You will be able to start saving with an initial deposit of as little as $25 and contribute as little as $5 each payday.  If an employer chooses to participate, contributions are made through automatic payroll deductions, making them hassle-free. 

There are no fees—100% of any contribution goes into the account and is invested in a Treasury securityThat means it will be backed by the full faith and credit of the United States, will earn the same interest rate that is available to federal employees for their retirement savings, and the balance will never go down.

Finally, myRA is not tied to any one employer—it belongs to the worker, not the workplace.  In other words, the account is portable and can be easily rolled into a Roth IRA.  And if myRA savers ever need to, they can withdraw their contributions tax-free, at any time.

MyRA is a specific way in which we can help hardworking Americans save for the future.  But there are other things we can do.  In particular, the President has consistently called on Congress to help tens of millions of middle class Americans save for the future by opening up access to automatic IRAs in the workplace. 

And we will continue to look for ways to help increase economic security, strengthen the middle class, and provide more ladders of opportunity into the middle class.  That is how we will help make sure every American can take part in this recovery.  And that is how we will help usher in a stronger, more prosperous future for our country.

Jacob J. Lew is the secretary of the Treasury.


    



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Why Believe Anything Director of National Intelligence Clapper Says?

James Clapper Yesterday, Director of National
Intelligence James Clapper testified before the Senate Intelligence
Committee about the foreign threats that menace the peace of the
United States. I have no doubt that such threats exist, but why
anyone would trust the way that Clapper would interpret (and
strategically withhold) intelligence about those threats is beyond
me. As all the world knows, Clapper lied last
March in sworn testimony to Congress about the extent of National
Security Agency spying on American citizens.

During the hearing yesterday, NSA critic Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.)
began his questioning by stating that Clapper and the NSA had
previously made “misleading
and deceptive statements
” in their testimony. Wyden then
added: 

Let me start by saying that the men and women of America’s
intelligence agencies are overwhelmingly dedicated professionals,
and they deserve to have leadership that is trusted by the American
people. Unfortunately, that trust has been seriously undermined by
senior officials’ reckless reliance on secret interpretations of
the law and battered by years of misleading and deceptive
statements that senior officials made to the American people. These
statements did not protect sources and methods that were useful in
fighting terror. Instead, they hid bad policy choices and violation
of the liberties of the American people.

For example, the director of the NSA said publicly that the NSA
doesn’t hold data on U.S. citizens. That was obviously untrue.

Justice Department officials testified that Section 215 of the
Patriot Act is analogous to grand jury subpoena authority, and that
deceptive statement was made on multiple occasions.

Officials also suggested that the NSA doesn’t have the authority
to read Americans’ e-mails without a warrant. But the FISA Court
opinions declassified last August showed that wasn’t true,
either.

Earlier in the week, Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.)
sent a letter
signed by five other congressmen – both
Republican and Democratic – to President Obama asking him to fire
Clapper. The letter read:

The continued role of James Clapper as Director of National
Intelligence is incompatible with the goal of restoring trust in
our security programs and ensuring the highest level of
transparency. Director Clapper continues to hold his position
despite lying to Congress, under oath, about the existence of bulk
data collection programs in March 2013. Asking Director Clapper,
and other federal intelligence officials who misrepresented
programs to Congress and the courts, to report to you on needed
reforms and the future role of government surveillance is not a
credible solution.”

Unfortunately, in a
reply
to the letter a spokesperson for President Obama
stated:

The president has full faith in Director Clapper’s leadership of
the intelligence community. The director has provided an
explanation for his answers to Sen. Wyden and made clear that he
did not intend to mislead the Congress.

Not intend to mislead the Congress? That is what happens when
you start lying, you have to keep lying. 

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Senate Judiciary Committee Approves Major Sentencing Reforms

Today the Senate Judiciary Committee
approved
 what the Drug Policy Alliance (DPA) calls “the
biggest overhaul in federal drug sentencing in decades.” The
Smarter
Sentencing Act
, introduced by Sens. Richard Durbin (D-Ill.)
and Mike Lee (R-Utah) last July, would cut mandatory minimum
sentences in half for some drug offenses, make the reduced crack
penalties enacted in 2010 retroactive, and expand the category of
defendants eligible for sentencing below the mandatory minimums.
“The Smarter Sentencing Act is the most significant piece of
criminal justice reform to make it to the Senate floor in several
years,”
says
Laura W. Murphy, director of the American Civil Liberties
Union’s Washington Legislative Office.

The Durbin-Lee bill does not go as far as the Justice
Safety Valve Act
, introduced last March by Sens. Rand Paul
(R-Ky.) and Pat Leahy (who chairs the Senate Judiciary Committee),
which would have made mandatory minimums
effectively optional
by alllowing judges to depart from them in
the interest of justice. It is neverthless a big improvement. The
crack provision alone could help thousands of prisoners serving
sentences that almost everyone now concedes are excessively long.
It would dramatically reduce the penalties for certain nonviolent
drug offenses, changing 20-year, 10-year, and five-year mandatory
minimums to 10 years, five years, and two years, respectively. It
allows more nonviolent offenders to escape mandatory minimums
entirely by loosening the criteria for the “safety valve,” allowing
two criminal background points instead of just one.

“Extreme, one-size-fits-all sentencing has caused our federal
prison population to balloon out of control, and it’s time to
change these laws that destroy lives and waste taxpayer dollars,”
Murphy says. DPA notes that the Smarter Sentencing Act is supported
by “a strange bedfellows group of senators,” including Durbin, Lee,
Paul, Leahy, Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Carl Levin
(D-Mich.) and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.). “The tide has turned
against punitive drug policies that destroy lives and tear families
apart,” says Bill Piper, DPA’s director of national affairs. “From
liberal stalwarts to Tea Party favorites there’s now consensus that
our country incarcerates too many people, for too much time, at too
much expense to taxpayers.” 

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Sharon Presley Has the Last Word on Freedom Feminism

Feminist demonstrationChristina
Hoff Sommers claims that her freedom feminism is “libertarian.”
That’s odd, writes Sharon Presley. Nowhere in her book does she say
that. All she talks about are conservatives, including, in very
approving terms, Phyllis Schlafly, who is about as anti-feminist as
you can get and still be female. Sommers wants libertarians to
align with conservative “feminists,” including the ones that are
busy trying to destroy reproductive freedom. Any so-called “freedom
feminism” that includes Schlafly and the anti-choice wing of the
conservative movement is not any “feminism” Presley wants to be
part of.

View this article.

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The IMF's Emerging Confusion On Emerging Markets

The IMF’s woeful forecasting record, chronicled extensively before, has just taken yet another hit, following the latest flip flop on emerging markets. Try to spot the common theme of these assessments by the IMF.

IMF Chief economist Olivier Blanchard, April 11, 2011 (source):

In emerging market economies, by contrast, the crisis left no lasting wounds. Their initial fiscal and financial positions were typically stronger, and the adverse effects of the crisis were more muted. High underlying growth and low interest rates are making fiscal adjustment much easier. Exports have recovered, and whatever shortfall in external demand they experienced has typically been made up through increases in domestic demand. Capital outflows have turned into capital inflows, due to both better growth prospects and higher interest rates than in the advanced economies. The challenge for most emerging market economies is thus quite different from that of the advanced economies—namely, how to avoid overheating in the face of closing output gaps and higher capital flows.”

IMF Chief economist Olivier Blanchard, July 9, 2013 (source):

“If you look country by country it seems to be specific . . . so in China it looks like unproductive investment, in Brazil it looks like low investment and in India it looks like policy and administrative uncertainty. But you wonder whether there is not something behind. I think behind this is a slowdown in underlying growth – not the cyclical component but just the average rate. It’s clear that these countries are not going to grow as fast as they did before the crisis.”

IMF Chief economist Olivier Blanchard, January 23, 2014 (source)

“Finally, we forecast that both emerging market and developing economies will sustain strong growth

A few days later, EMs around the globe crashed, and central banks virtually everywhere had to step in to bail out their crashing currencies, and hit the tape with even more impressive verbal intervention every several hours.

Finally, today we get IMF economist Alejandro Werner, January 30, 2014 (source)

“Conditions in global financial markets will stay tighter than they were before the U.S. central bank’s “taper talk” in the first half of 2013, translating into higher international borrowing costs, particularly with the recent volatility in emerging markets…. sustained turbulence in emerging markets could tighten global financial conditions further…. Rebuilding fiscal buffers, and using monetary policy and flexible exchange rates to absorb shocks where possible, remains the order of the day.

In other words, going from a forecast of “high underlying growth”, to “not going to grow as fast as they did”, to “sustain strong growth”, to violent EM crash, to “turbulence”, “volatility”, and urging EMs to “using monetary policy to absorb shocks”, what is clear is that nobody knows what is going on, nobody has any handle on the future of Emerging Markets, but let’s all just pretend that the MIT central-planners in control, are in control, and all shall be well.


    



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