Banks: You Can Bank on It!

 

We all knew that cultures were different and that we all had a unique way of doing things that run our daily lives. In Europe they tell the banks that they will die if they are weak (apparently, after the statement issued by Danièle Nouy, overseer of the Singe Supervisory Mechanism). In the US, it’s only the cost of lawsuits and legal expenses that stopped the banks from making all-time record highs in 2013 and still there is hardly a line written about the money that is being raked in. In the UK, they intend to sack 12, 000 people and say thank you very much by dishing out the biggest bonuses this-side of the Atlantic (for the top dogs, not the redundant low-life). Yay! If your kids are looking for something to do when they grow up, they need to become a high-flying banker. Even better, one of the fat cats that gets the cream, does the dozing and slips off with the sandman. Even better than better: Mr. Sandman could always throw the sand into the eyes of those that are losing their jobs, being made redundant and into the eyes of the public so that they don’t get to see it.

EU

Danièle Nouy says that banks that are weak will have to say goodbye to the high life and die. But, please, this is Europe, she is French and there has to be a certain panache about this death. Even death has to be original, confident and accompanied by reckless courage and flamboyant acts. Let’s watch them go out with a glass of champagne. Remember, she wants them to die ‘in an orderly fashion’. Does that mean there won’t be any ‘crime passionnel’? The only crime of passion that will be committed may indeed be on Nouy herself when the people discover that she will have whittled down the banks to a handful that hold the purse strings even tighter. How very fitting that the one part of the male anatomy that she will have us all held by is also the very same word for ‘purse’ (‘bourse’) where she comes from.

USA

The USA is doing pretty well with the six biggest banks in the country (JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley). How have they been treated since being the main instigators of the financial crash which has put us in the predicament that we are in now? They have been treated very well indeed. Those six paid out $18.7 billion to settle lawsuits against them last year for financial misdemeanor and violations of the Banking Secrecy Act as well as misrepresentation of mortgage-backed securities. The list could go on. Even so, those six still made more profit than they had made before the financial crash (all we have to do is go back to 2006 to see figures higher than these ones).

Net income for the six rose by 21% and reached $74.1 billion. That was all thanks to the rise in the stock market, due to false hopes from the Federal Reserve and virtual booming of the economy. All of that looks today as if it may actually continue since Janet Yellen is announcing that it’s not time to pull the plug completely and the economy is still not out of danger. In 2006, when the housing bubble was raking in more money than ever before (right at the peak before it burst), those six earned $84.6 billion. JPMorgan Chase, for example, is expected to make $23 billion in profit alone this year. Wells Fargo is expected to see an increase in profit for the fifth year in a row, hitting $21 billion.

UK

In the UK, things are marginally worse (if that is at all possible). Take Barclays Bank, for example. Not only have they leaked 27, 000 files related to customer data accidentally, but they have also just announced that they will be incurring a 32% fall in profits, making 12, 000 employees redundant and at the same time (in one fell swoop) they have decided to give investment bankers £1.6 billion in bonuses. Is this one of the weaker banks of the ilk spoken about by the French lady espousing the passions of crime? Total bonuses in fact stand at £2.4 billion (up by £0.2 billion from last year). Profits have fallen from £7 billion to £5.2 billion. So the bank is not weak, it’s just ‘misguided’, ‘mismanaged’…? Antony Jenkins, who was promoted to head Barclays after the £290-million Libor scandal defends the decision to make thousands of employees redundant. He shall have slightly more trouble rendering it more acceptable to swallow the bitter pill of losing the data (and subsequently not contacting any more than 300 customers) as well as handing out the bonuses. Barclays says they are ‘Fluent in Finance’. We obviously no longer speak the same language.

The Sandman has sent us all to sleep over the years while the banks are making more money today than they ever were in the past. Continually, it seems, we are still going round in circles. Once upon a time, the banks sacked the employees and paid the shareholders and gave the top financiers hefty bonuses. Now, even the shareholders are not getting as much as they used to. How long will it go on for until the financiers get lynched?

 

Originally posted: Banks: You Can Bank on It!

 You might also enjoy:China: What Happened to the Gold Data?

Stiglitz: “Sick”! | Hyperinflation – 10 Worst Cases | Death of the Dollar | You’re Miserable USA! | Emerging Markets: Lock, Stock and Barrel | End of the Financial World 2014 |  Kristallnacht on Wall Street? Bull! | China’s Credit Crunch | Working for the Few | USA:The Land of the Not-So-Free  

 


    



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Greed + Cartels = U.S. Sickcare/ObamaCare

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

Sickcare/ObamaCare is fundamentally broken at every level.

The incremental nature of change makes it difficult for us to notice how systems that once worked well with modest costs have transmogrified into broken systems that cost a fortune. Exhibit # 1 is higher education: 40 years ago, four-year public universities were affordable and two-year community colleges were almost free. Now students have to borrow $1 trillion to pay for the exorbitant privilege of higher education.

And no, the difference isn't that states don't provide the same funding–the difference is costs have soared while the yield on the investment has plummeted. Please read:

The Mafia State of Mind

Our Two Most Onerous Taxes: College Tuition and Healthcare Insurance

Our Middleman-Skimming Economy

America's Make-Work Sectors (Healthcare and Higher Education) Have Run Out of Oxygen

Longtime correspondent Ishabaka (an M.D. with 30+ years experience in primary care and as an emergency room physician) responded to this article with an insider's account of what happens when greed and cartels take over healthcare. After reading What's wrong with American hospitals?, a scathing deconstruction of for-profit healthcare, Ishabaka submitted this commentary:

I could have told you what was wrong with our hospital system by 1989 – nobody would listen to me back then.

Up til the '70's, almost all hospitals in the United States were not for profit COMMUNITY HOSPITALS. They were LOCAL. The Board of Directors was made up of some senior doctors, maybe the head nurse, and various other prominent local businessmen and professionals. Others (mostly Catholic), were run as non-profits by religious orders. A very few, mostly very small hospitals were for profit, usually owned by a group of doctors, or even one doctor.

The mission of these community hospitals was to provide for the LOCAL COMMUNITY – one and all. Payment was various – private insurance, Medicare, Medicaid, self pay – and the idea was to collect just enough money to keep the hospital going, and provide care for the poor who had no money to pay. If your grandma got bad care – you could go – in person – to the local, say, banker, on the Board of Directors, and tell him – and he would CARE.

THIS SYSTEM WORKED, and kept costs DOWN. Remember, the hospital just needed enough money to stay in the black. Often local wealthy people would will money to the hospital in which they had been cared for.

In the '80's – there was the arrival of the for-profit cartels – and I use the world cartels specifically – these were run by people with the sociopathic Goldman Sachs type mentality – their sole goal was to acquire huge sums of money for themselves, their hospital directors, and their SHAREHOLDERS. They used a typical sneaky technique – they'd come into town, and tell the locals they could run the hospital much cheaper, because of their economy of scale. People believed this, and the cartels bought out most of the community hospitals.

I worked at one such for-profit hospital and had a 21-year old indigent man come in who'd been struck by a car while walking, and was rapidly bleeding to death. The hospital administrator refused to open the operating room, even though I had a surgeon right there, willing and able to operate for free to save this young man's life. The surgeon threw a fit, and he was a big wheel at the hospital and the administrator backed down – otherwise I firmly believe the young man would have died. This was LEGAL back then, before the EMTLA law was passed because similar abuses were rampant NATIONWIDE.

Around this time, the administrators of the remaining community hospitals found out the administrators of the for-profit hospitals were making tens of times their salaries – and bonuses based on profits – and started demanding similar salaries and bonuses based on PROFITS – a contradiction of the old concept of community hospitals (the article does touch on this).

How do you increase hospital profits? Number one – avoid any care for the poor you can weasel out of. Number two – cut staff to the bone and beyond (one of hospital's biggest expenses). Most American hospitals now have UNSAFE nurse to patient ratios because of this.

As far as patient care goes, nurses are the most important people in hospitals. I know of one lady who DIED while in a monitored bed, and wasn't found dead until several hours later due to the criminally low nursing staff ratio in a hospital I worked in. I HAD complained about the dearth of nurses, and was threatened with the loss of my job. Another side effect of this is, nursing in hospitals has become unbearable for nurses who really cared about their patients – many good hospital nurses have left hospital work for other fields. The results are appalling.

I saved the life of a patient an unqualified, under-educated nurse gave the wrong medicine to – a medicine that IMMEDIATELY MAKES YOU STOP BREATHING, because it was cheaper for the hospital to hire her than a knowledgeable and experienced nurse. The medicine is pancuronium bromide, if you want to Google it. The nurse didn't know one of the effects was cessation of breathing – this is Pharmacology for Nurses 101, this drug is used all day long in every operating room in America (where doctors WANT patients under anesthesia to stop breathing, and put them on breathing machines during the surgery – which is very safe if done correctly).

I could go on and on. Simple things, like the instruments you use to suture cuts – community hospitals used to buy Swiss or German made ones that were of the finest quality, sterilize and re-use them over and over. This changed to disposable instruments that sometimes literally fell apart in my hands. Bandage tape that didn't stick, instead of quality Johnson and Johnson tape – anything to save a buck.

It is not getting better, it is getting worse. The nurses I know tell me hospitals are cutting staff even MORE now in preparation for Obamacare.

I will end with a story that illustrates the difference between Old School and New School hospital administrators.

I had the pleasure of working five years in a real community hospital. One of the senior administrators (R.I.P.) was a gentleman who'd made his fortune in the grocery business. In his late 80's, he would arrive at the emergency department entrance every morning between seven and eight am, and proceed to walk throughout the hospital. He would ask various and sundry staff how they were getting along – everyone from janitors to senior physicians. If something was amiss – HE RECTIFIED THE SITUATION. Tragically, this hospital was bought out, and is now part of a chain.

I had the displeasure of working in a "community" (really for-profit) hospital with a middle aged administrator who NEVER set foot outside his office or conference rooms – he NEVER appeared in the (very large and busy) emergency department once. This was in the early 90's, and one year it was revealed that his compensation was $600,000 – and a brand new Lexus as a "performance bonus". He was on the golf course by three pm every single day. That was the hospital where the woman who was being "monitored" (alarms and all that) was found very cold and dead after a delay of who knows how many hours.

Thank you, Ishabaka, for telling it like it really is. Needless to say, ObamaCare (the Orwellian-named Affordable Care Act–ACA) purposefully ignores everything that is fundamentally broken with U.S. sickcare and extends the soaring-cost cartel system, essentially promising to stripmine the taxpayers of however many trillions of dollars are needed to generate outsized profits for the cartels.

Only those with no exposure to the real costs of ObamaCare approve of the current sickcare system. Government employees who have no idea how much their coverage costs, well-paid shills and toadies like Paul Krugman, academics with tenure and lifetime healthcare coverage–all these people swallow the fraud whole and declare it delicious.

Only those of us who are paying the real, unsubsidized cost know how unsustainable the system is, and only those inside the machine know how broken it is at every level. Greed + cartels = Sickcare/ObamaCare. Love your servitude, baby–it's affordable, really, really, really it is.


    



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Obamacare Sign-Ups Beat January Enrollment Projections, But Total Enrollment Still Falls Short

Obamacare’s defenders seemed rather
pleased
with yesterday’s enrollment figures. More than 1.1
million people signed up for private plans in January, making it
the first month to
beat early enrollment projections
.

According to administration figures, 1.14 million people signed
up for private health plans through the law’s exchanges last month,
a little more than the 1.059 million that had been projected.

But overall sign up totals for private insurance, which now
stand at 3.3 million nationwide, still lag behind early enrollment
projections by about 1 million.

Even with January’s above-target sign-up count, it’s still going
to be quite difficult for the administration to meet its initial
enrollment target of 7 million people by the end of open enrollment
in March. In order to hit that target, the administration would
need to get more people to enroll over the next two months than
signed up in the first four months.

Enrollment is already slowing dramatically from its December
peak. Even with the above-target sign ups last month, January
enrollment is
down by about 49 percent
from December. That pace probably
won’t pick up significantly in February, which means that whatever
enrollment surge we see in March (the final month for 2014
enrollment) will have to be quite large.

All this assumes that basically all of the “sign-ups” the
administration is reporting eventually convert into paid
enrollments. But that seems unlikely. Because most exchanges aren’t
handling or tracking premium payments themselves yet, it’s hard to
get a complete picture of how many people have paid their first
premium, which is necessary for enrollment. But insurance industry
officials and well-connected sources say that only about 70-80
percent of sign-ups have actually paid so far. And
in Washington state
, which is tracking payment rates, only
about half of sign-ups have resulted in payment so far.

The health law’s supporters have taken to arguing that total
enrollment matters less than the demographic mix. (Insurance pools
need a significant proportion of younger, healthier individuals to
balance out the higher health costs of older and sicker enrollees.)
But the administration’s early targets look increasingly difficult
to meet there as well. The goal had been for about 39 percent of
sign-ups to be between the ages of 18 to 34. The latest figures
show that just 25 percent of sign ups so far fall in that age
cohort.

The administration and insurers have marketing campaigns in the
works. But they seem to be about as well planned as the rest of
Obamacare’s rollout. Early plans for door-to-door outreach were

scrapped
, and Obamacare’s enrollment website is
scheduled to be down
on National Youth Enrollment Day.

Still, because of the geographic segmentation of the insurance
market, a simple binary success or failure metric doesn’t fully
capture the law’s results. There are 50 different states, with 50
different insurance markets, and it’s already clear that there’s
going to be a lot of variance. Philip Klein of The Washington
Examiner

compared
yesterday’s sign-up figures with projected enrollment
totals in each state, and found that 11 were beating their sign-up
estimates. But 12 states and the District of Columbia had come in
at less than 50 percent of their targets.

So at this point it looks like Obamacare will continue to limp
forward.
As Avik Roy argues at Forbes
, the sign-up numbers now
suggest that although it will likely be more expensive and less
successful than advertised, it won’t simply collapse. Obamacare
continues to prove not so much that it can work, but that it can
survive.

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Letta Resigns; Meet Italy's New Unelected Prime Minister

Matteo Renzi’s Democratic Party has voted to back his proposal fore a new government… and Prime Minister Letta has resigned. This will bring the 65th government in Italy since World War II and the 3rd consecutive government that would not have been elected (the last elected Prime Minister was Berlusconi in 2008).

 

Renzi’s speech in preparation for the vote was farcical and confused:

  • *RENZI SAYS ITALY CANNOT CONTINUE TO LIVE IN UNCERTAINTY
  • *RENZI SAYS ITALY NEEDS TO EXIT SWAMP, NEEDS CHANGE (but same coalition parties)
  • *RENZI SAYS NEW ELECTIONS WOULDN’T GUARANTEE CLEAR MAJORITY
  • *RENZI SAYS THIS IS TIME TO BE RESPONSIBLE, TAKE RISKS

While Letta had his “57-page plan” of reforms, Renzi does not differ greatly (and thus there will be no change) as the confrontation hinges on who is better placed to implement them. Markets are rallying on the news.

 


 

Via WSJ,

Mr. Renzi’s own proposals don’t contrast with those of Mr. Letta. The confrontation hinges on which of the two are better placed to implement their plans.

 

 

Ten months ago [Letta] gave his government—Italy’s first left-right coalition since the late 1940s—18 months to carry out an ambitious program including constitutional reform, a new electoral law and measures aimed at bolstering what has been the euro zone’s weakest economy since 2000. Progress has been slow and, as Mr. Letta lamented on Wednesday, many laws have been passed but their enactment decrees never promulgated.

 

 

We would regard a Renzi premiership as a positive development for Italy, possibly imparting a new drive to the reform agenda,” Citigroup C -0.90%  analysts said in a note.

 

On the other hand, he risks having to operate within the current parliament without a clear electoral mandate, which could compromise both his influence and his image as a novelty in Italian politics, said J.P. Morgan analyst Alex White.

 

 

Italy’s last elected prime minister was Silvio Berlusconi, who won an ample majority in the 2008 elections.

Meet the new unelected PM of Italy,

Matteo Renzi, the charismatic young mayor of Florence, was elected last December as leader of Italy’s most powerful political organisation, the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) – the dominant faction in the current coalition government.

Matteo Renzi is just 39 years old and has never been a member of parliament. Now he has called publicly for a new government, directly challenging Prime Minister and party rival Enrico Letta.

The young party leader is sometimes called Il Rottamatore (“The Scrapper”). The nickname refers to his call to scrap the entire Italian political establishment, which is widely regarded as discredited, tainted by corruption, and as having failed the nation decade after decade.

His rise has been seen as a sign of much-needed generational change, and he enjoys by far the highest approval rating of any politician in the country. He is in his own words “hugely ambitious”.

Mr Renzi presents himself as a break with the past in every way, BBC Rome correspondent Alan Johnston reports.

He exudes a restless energy. He likes to pace the stage in black jeans and attends meetings in shirt sleeves. He travels around either in a small car or on a bicycle.

He is relaxed and easy – fast and fluent as he speaks without notes, ranging across Italy’s many problems, and offering broad-brush solutions.

Restoring belief
He always seeks to instil a belief that politics can be done differently, that change is possible.

He once finished a televised debate by saying he would offer something very rare in Italy: “Hope.”

“People are weary and disillusioned,” he said. “They don’t believe anymore. I believe, and that’s why I do politics – because I still believe.”


    



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Letta Resigns; Meet Italy’s New Unelected Prime Minister

Matteo Renzi’s Democratic Party has voted to back his proposal fore a new government… and Prime Minister Letta has resigned. This will bring the 65th government in Italy since World War II and the 3rd consecutive government that would not have been elected (the last elected Prime Minister was Berlusconi in 2008).

 

Renzi’s speech in preparation for the vote was farcical and confused:

  • *RENZI SAYS ITALY CANNOT CONTINUE TO LIVE IN UNCERTAINTY
  • *RENZI SAYS ITALY NEEDS TO EXIT SWAMP, NEEDS CHANGE (but same coalition parties)
  • *RENZI SAYS NEW ELECTIONS WOULDN’T GUARANTEE CLEAR MAJORITY
  • *RENZI SAYS THIS IS TIME TO BE RESPONSIBLE, TAKE RISKS

While Letta had his “57-page plan” of reforms, Renzi does not differ greatly (and thus there will be no change) as the confrontation hinges on who is better placed to implement them. Markets are rallying on the news.

 


 

Via WSJ,

Mr. Renzi’s own proposals don’t contrast with those of Mr. Letta. The confrontation hinges on which of the two are better placed to implement their plans.

 

 

Ten months ago [Letta] gave his government—Italy’s first left-right coalition since the late 1940s—18 months to carry out an ambitious program including constitutional reform, a new electoral law and measures aimed at bolstering what has been the euro zone’s weakest economy since 2000. Progress has been slow and, as Mr. Letta lamented on Wednesday, many laws have been passed but their enactment decrees never promulgated.

 

 

We would regard a Renzi premiership as a positive development for Italy, possibly imparting a new drive to the reform agenda,” Citigroup C -0.90%  analysts said in a note.

 

On the other hand, he risks having to operate within the current parliament without a clear electoral mandate, which could compromise both his influence and his image as a novelty in Italian politics, said J.P. Morgan analyst Alex White.

 

 

Italy’s last elected prime minister was Silvio Berlusconi, who won an ample majority in the 2008 elections.

Meet the new unelected PM of Italy,

Matteo Renzi, the charismatic young mayor of Florence, was elected last December as leader of Italy’s most powerful political organisation, the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) – the dominant faction in the current coalition government.

Matteo Renzi is just 39 years old and has never been a member of parliament. Now he has called publicly for a new government, directly challenging Prime Minister and party rival Enrico Letta.

The young party leader is sometimes called Il Rottamatore (“The Scrapper”). The nickname refers to his call to scrap the entire Italian political establishment, which is widely regarded as discredited, tainted by corruption, and as having failed the nation decade after decade.

His rise has been seen as a sign of much-needed generational change, and he enjoys by far the highest approval rating of any politician in the country. He is in his own words “hugely ambitious”.

Mr Renzi presents himself as a break with the past in every way, BBC Rome correspondent Alan Johnston reports.

He exudes a restless energy. He likes to pace the stage in black jeans and attends meetings in shirt sleeves. He travels around either in a small car or on a bicycle.

He is relaxed and easy – fast and fluent as he speaks without notes, ranging across Italy’s many problems, and offering broad-brush solutions.

Restoring belief
He always seeks to instil a belief that politics can be done differently, that change is possible.

He once finished a televised debate by saying he would offer something very rare in Italy: “Hope.”

“People are weary and disillusioned,” he said. “They don’t believe anymore. I believe, and that’s why I do politics – because I still believe.”


    



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Gold Breaks Above $1,300

For the first time since in over 3 months, spot gold prices are back above $1,300 and continued to be the best performing asset since the December taper and the start of the year$1,304.70 is the crucial 200DMA that has not been tested since over a year ago.

Back above $1300 for first time since Nov 8th.

 

and is pressing the 200DMA for the first time in over a year (and retraced to 50% of the 2008-2011 swing).

 

Gold has been outperforming…


    



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… In Which We Find Joe LaVorgna Looking For "Some Impressive Weather-Related Snapback"

Word count of the word “weather” in Joe LaVorgna’s latest note explaining away today’s third consecutive miss in retail sales and initial claims: 8. The humor, however, is this punchline: “Eventually, though, we should see some impressive weather-related snapback in economic activity.” Wait, so the weather will deposit a few thousand dollars in all tapped-out US consumers’ bank accounts? You do learn something every day.

From DB’s Joe LaVorgna

Weather likely weighed on retail sales and jobless claims

 

January retail sales fell -0.4% after December and November sales were revised down three-tenths and one-tenth to -0.1% and +0.3%, respectively. There was broad-based weakness in the details, with motor vehicles (-2.1%) down the most, followed by department stores (-1.5%) and sporting goods sales (-1.4%). Conceivably, inclement weather hurt these highly discretionary categories. In fact, the only five subcomponents that rose in January, and four of these categories likely reflect weather-related spending, were building materials, food & beverage, grocery stores and gasoline. Spending on electronics was up a slight +0.4%, but this follows a massive -4.4% decline in December. Retail control, which excludes food services, autos, building materials and gasoline and which is a direct input into GDP, was down -0.3% in January after rising just +0.3% in December. Adding to the softness of the report was the fact that retail control was revised down in December (+0.3% versus an initially reported +0.7%) as well as November (-0.1% versus a previously reported +0.2%). Given the unusually frigid temperatures seen across much of the country over the past two months, electricity and natural gas usage likely soared. In turn, the bump in utilities spending could help offset some of the weather-related weakness in retail spending with respect to Q1 real GDP.

 

Initial jobless claims for the week of February 8 increased +9k to 339k which had the effect of bumping up the four-week moving average +4k to 337k. In other details of the report, continuing claims fell -18k to 2953k and this caused the four-week moving average to decline -17k to 2970k. The insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.3%. It is important to keep in mind that adverse weather and seasonal factors can add to the volatility in the claims data around this time of the year. Hence, we are not overly concerned with this morning’s moderate rise in the headline and would instead focus more on the four-week average. Since the four-week moving average on initial jobless claims first fell below 340k last August, nonfarm payroll growth has averaged +177k per month which is close to its underlying trend. This gives us modest confidence that the labor market remains stable despite the recent weakness in the December and January reports which were likely impacted by adverse weather. Next week’s data correspond to the survey period for February payrolls and given the impact of winter storm Pax on the eastern seaboard, we could be setting up for another weather-dampened report. Eventually, though, we should see some impressive weather-related snapback in economic activity.


    



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… In Which We Find Joe LaVorgna Looking For “Some Impressive Weather-Related Snapback”

Word count of the word “weather” in Joe LaVorgna’s latest note explaining away today’s third consecutive miss in retail sales and initial claims: 8. The humor, however, is this punchline: “Eventually, though, we should see some impressive weather-related snapback in economic activity.” Wait, so the weather will deposit a few thousand dollars in all tapped-out US consumers’ bank accounts? You do learn something every day.

From DB’s Joe LaVorgna

Weather likely weighed on retail sales and jobless claims

 

January retail sales fell -0.4% after December and November sales were revised down three-tenths and one-tenth to -0.1% and +0.3%, respectively. There was broad-based weakness in the details, with motor vehicles (-2.1%) down the most, followed by department stores (-1.5%) and sporting goods sales (-1.4%). Conceivably, inclement weather hurt these highly discretionary categories. In fact, the only five subcomponents that rose in January, and four of these categories likely reflect weather-related spending, were building materials, food & beverage, grocery stores and gasoline. Spending on electronics was up a slight +0.4%, but this follows a massive -4.4% decline in December. Retail control, which excludes food services, autos, building materials and gasoline and which is a direct input into GDP, was down -0.3% in January after rising just +0.3% in December. Adding to the softness of the report was the fact that retail control was revised down in December (+0.3% versus an initially reported +0.7%) as well as November (-0.1% versus a previously reported +0.2%). Given the unusually frigid temperatures seen across much of the country over the past two months, electricity and natural gas usage likely soared. In turn, the bump in utilities spending could help offset some of the weather-related weakness in retail spending with respect to Q1 real GDP.

 

Initial jobless claims for the week of February 8 increased +9k to 339k which had the effect of bumping up the four-week moving average +4k to 337k. In other details of the report, continuing claims fell -18k to 2953k and this caused the four-week moving average to decline -17k to 2970k. The insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.3%. It is important to keep in mind that adverse weather and seasonal factors can add to the volatility in the claims data around this time of the year. Hence, we are not overly concerned with this morning’s moderate rise in the headline and would instead focus more on the four-week average. Since the four-week moving average on initial jobless claims first fell below 340k last August, nonfarm payroll growth has averaged +177k per month which is close to its underlying trend. This gives us modest confidence that the labor market remains stable despite the recent weakness in the December and January reports which were likely impacted by adverse weather. Next week’s data correspond to the survey period for February payrolls and given the impact of winter storm Pax on the eastern seaboard, we could be setting up for another weather-dampened report. Eventually, though, we should see some impressive weather-related snapback in economic activity.


    



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Bill de Blasio Keeps NYC Schools Open, Teachers Union, Parents Upset, But No One’s Forcing Anyone to School Are They?

has big plans for new york, still figuring out how to deal with snowNew York City decided last
night to keep public schools open today despite a snowstorm
forecast
, a decision now being
criticized
by the teachers union, whose president insisted
safety trumps the desire to keep schools open.  The mayor
defended the decision, saying “so many families depend on their
schools as a place for their kids to be during the day, a safe
place, a place where they’re not only taught but get nutrition and
they are safe from the elements.”

Yet De Blasio also
issued
a winter storm travel warning for today last night,
advising residents to stay off the roads.  For New Yorkers who
expect kings of their mayors, the decision to keep schools open
seems in contradiction to the travel warning, and
many of them are pissed
. But de Blasio is not the boss of New
Yorkers. Attendance may not have hit 50 percent the last time
schools remained open during a snowstorm,
in January
. You should actually be able to see an attendance
estimate from the NYC Department of Education sometime this
afternoon here. WNYC
noted numbers for teachers attendance wasn’t as publicly available,
but reported that in the January storm absenteeism appeared far
higher than usual. New York City schools, like most districts, have
a system for teachers to call out and substitutes to be deployed.
Given that “perk,” it’s unfair for the teachers union to argue that
all schools should have been closed for safety. Their contract lets
them take a day off, more easily than a lot of other workers in New
York City. New York City parents, meanwhile, should know that the
decision to send their child to school rests with them alone. The
mayor’s decision to keep schools open fulfills one of their
theoretical functions, to serve as a place for children to go when
their parents are at work. The ultimate decision, even for New York
residents accustomed to having their government choose for them,
lies with New Yorkers, not de Blasio

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Bureau of Indian Affairs Commonly Blows Money on Illegal Leases, Says Inspector General

OfficeThe Bureau of Indian Affairs,
it seems, has trouble following the rules when leasing, to the
extent that it blows tens of millions of dollars on property that
it doesn’t need, or that was acquired in violation of one or more
rules. The problem is so widespread that the Department of the
Interior found problems with every single lease examined in a
recent Inspector General’s report. That report was only a sample of
the BIA’s activity, so the problem just may be a bit more
widespread.

The BIA’s taste for blowing rental agreements was first noted by
the General Services Administration, which is sort of the federal
goverment’s office manager. The GSA referred the problem to the
Department of the Interior’s Office of the Inspector General, with
much astonishment to ensue.

From the
Inspector General
:

OIG sampled 14 BIA leases identified in the GSA report and found
issues with all of them. These issues resulted from noncompliance
with GSA guidelines to insufficient BIA guidance and inadequate
training. We found leases extended without GSA approval, leases
exceeding GSA square footage limits, leases established by
individuals without qualifications to do so, and contracting
officers who did not follow guidelines. BIA’s inability to
accurately report all lease data back to GSA also made it
impossible for GSA to analyze post-lease performance data for the
BIA leases we reviewed. BIA expended more than $32 million for
leases that exceeded GSA space limits and leasing requirements.

Yes, $32 million is barely walking-around money for a government
that turns wealth into ashes in billion-dollar lots. But
every lease the OIG scrutinized in its sample had somehow
been screwed up.

Two of the problematic properties were rented by a BIA
superintendent in Montana who had no authority to sign contracts
and who never reported the deal to the BIA’s central office, so the
Bureau had no idea these facilities existed, even as it paid for
them. In other cases, the BIA spent well beyond what it was allowed
without specific congressional authorization.

In slap-on-the-wrist fashion, the Inspector General recommended
the BIA:

  1. Develop and implement policies and procedures that ensure
    compliance with GSA guidance.
  2. Develop a database accurately reflecting the status of leases
    in BIAs inventory and,
  3. Ensure BIA contracting officers receive appropriate training in
    lease administration and management.

That’s right, almost two centures after its founding,
the Bureau of Indian Affars still hasn’t got a handle on
acquiring property the right way. Then again, it doesn’t just take
it any more; it overpays instead. Which is something of an
improvement.

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