Ron Paul's Long, Continuing March Through the Nevada GOP

Betsy Woodruff at National Review last week revisited

how Ron Paul people are continuing to shape
the Republican
Party, focused on Nevada.

The article is largely based on the perspective of one Nevada
activist, former party state vice chair James Smack, but worth a
read. After summing up how Party apparatchiks pissed off Paul
people by prematurely shutting down the state convention in 2008,
here’s the nub:

what [Smack] describes as “a conservative alliance” came
together. It was about 30 people, most of whom had been 2008
state-convention delegates. They didn’t all love Ron Paul, but they
all wanted more conservative candidates at the state and national
levels. Some came and went; some entered the group only after its
initial establishment. If one member found a project to work on, he
or she would call a meeting to rally the others.

It was like a conservative steering committee, adds Smack.
People pushed for the passage of resolutions and the election of
state party officers. After a couple of years, members of the group
had spread throughout party leadership in the state. The Nevada
Republican central committee started to skew conservative. Smack
himself rose to vice chairman of the state party and national
committeeman. Jim Wheeler, another member, won a spot as a state
assemblyman, and members of the group have grabbed county
chairmanships and the chairmanship of the state budget committee.
Diana Orrock, a Ron Paul supporter, became the national
committeewoman. And at the Republican National Committee’s winter
meeting last month, she introduced the anti-NSA resolution that
made national headlines as asignificant
change
 for the GOP.

The state central committee and the Nevada party are leaning
much more libertarian these days, she tells NRO. But she doesn’t
feel that’s the case for the party’s national officials. So there’s
an appetite for the kinds of primary challenges that make national
party leaders cringe.

And there’s not a lot of love among the new Nevada Republican
leadership for some of the GOP’s brightest stars.

The Nevada GOP will welcome “any and all presidential
candidates,” Smack says. But it will lean toward folks such as
Senators Rand Paul, Mike Lee, and Ted Cruz and Congressman Justin
Amash. “It’ll be a little bit cooler reception for, say, Governor
Chris Christie or somebody of that nature.”

Past blogging by me on Paulites in Nevada,
from January 2013
and July
2013
.

For the beginnings of this zany saga, see my book
Ron Paul’s Revolution: The Man and the Movement He
Inspired
.

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via IFTTT

Ron Paul’s Long, Continuing March Through the Nevada GOP

Betsy Woodruff at National Review last week revisited

how Ron Paul people are continuing to shape
the Republican
Party, focused on Nevada.

The article is largely based on the perspective of one Nevada
activist, former party state vice chair James Smack, but worth a
read. After summing up how Party apparatchiks pissed off Paul
people by prematurely shutting down the state convention in 2008,
here’s the nub:

what [Smack] describes as “a conservative alliance” came
together. It was about 30 people, most of whom had been 2008
state-convention delegates. They didn’t all love Ron Paul, but they
all wanted more conservative candidates at the state and national
levels. Some came and went; some entered the group only after its
initial establishment. If one member found a project to work on, he
or she would call a meeting to rally the others.

It was like a conservative steering committee, adds Smack.
People pushed for the passage of resolutions and the election of
state party officers. After a couple of years, members of the group
had spread throughout party leadership in the state. The Nevada
Republican central committee started to skew conservative. Smack
himself rose to vice chairman of the state party and national
committeeman. Jim Wheeler, another member, won a spot as a state
assemblyman, and members of the group have grabbed county
chairmanships and the chairmanship of the state budget committee.
Diana Orrock, a Ron Paul supporter, became the national
committeewoman. And at the Republican National Committee’s winter
meeting last month, she introduced the anti-NSA resolution that
made national headlines as asignificant
change
 for the GOP.

The state central committee and the Nevada party are leaning
much more libertarian these days, she tells NRO. But she doesn’t
feel that’s the case for the party’s national officials. So there’s
an appetite for the kinds of primary challenges that make national
party leaders cringe.

And there’s not a lot of love among the new Nevada Republican
leadership for some of the GOP’s brightest stars.

The Nevada GOP will welcome “any and all presidential
candidates,” Smack says. But it will lean toward folks such as
Senators Rand Paul, Mike Lee, and Ted Cruz and Congressman Justin
Amash. “It’ll be a little bit cooler reception for, say, Governor
Chris Christie or somebody of that nature.”

Past blogging by me on Paulites in Nevada,
from January 2013
and July
2013
.

For the beginnings of this zany saga, see my book
Ron Paul’s Revolution: The Man and the Movement He
Inspired
.

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/1bT62t1
via IFTTT

Our Middleman-Skimming Economy

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

The Internet is enabling sellers and buyers to bypass the predatory State and the parasitic middlemen the State enforces.

Why do we read commentaries and analyses? To understand why the Status Quo is dying and to have a hand in shaping the new way of living that will replace it. Longtime correspondent Zeus Y. recently encapsulated the core dynamic of our era:

"Here's the deal between the two worlds right now: the Status Quo is dying but trying to take everything with it and the other is trying to hold the old world up enough to avoid complete collapse, buy time, and construct the airplane of the new world, all while flying."

Humans avoid changing current arrangements until there is no choice left but to change them–usually when the arrangement collapses in a heap. Greece is an interesting example of just this dynamic: the political parties left, right and center are desperate to keep the corrupt Status Quo intact, while those whose slice of the swag has vanished have already moved on to new arrangements that no longer depend on Central State swag or the many layers of middlemen that skimmed off most of the wealth for various monopolies, cartels and Elites: 

After Crisis, Greeks Work to Promote ‘Social’ Economy.

Here's the Status Quo arrangement: the Elites trying to take everything they can before their vast skimming arrangement finally collapses:

Corruption in the EU and Greece (Acting Man)

Greek official bribed 'more times than he can remember'

At the time, Mr. Kantas, a wiry former military officer, did not actually have the authority to decide much of anything on his own. But corruption was so rampant inside the Greek equivalent of the Pentagon that even a man of his relatively modest rank, he testified recently, was able to amass nearly $19 million in just five years on the job.

Corruption across EU 'breathtaking' (BBC)

It's instructive to study the key strategy in Greece's social/community economy: get rid of the middleman.

There's a couple of things we need to understand about middlemen before we can grasp the revolutionary nature of a social/community economy.

A middleman adds value to both supplier and buyer by making transactions faster, easier and cheaper. A bank, for example, clears payments made with checks, and takes depositors' savings and loans the money out at interest to borrowers. Both of these transactions are fraught with various risks and complications, and the bank charges a fee for taking on the management of the transactions.

A wholesaler adds value by providing a market for both sellers and buyers that enables a transfer of risks and transaction costs to the wholesaler in exchange for lower prices to the seller and higher prices to the buyer.

The keys to this middleman economy are transparency, voluntary choices and the competition that arises in transparent voluntary markets. Middleman economies function for both sellers and buyers only as long as all transactions are voluntary and the costs and risks of using middlemen are transparent to all participants.

The problem, as Marx foresaw, is that profits are always at risk in such a competitive marketplace. Middlemen who raise their prices enough to skim big profits are soon abandoned by sellers and buyers who can get lower transaction costs elsewhere.

The ideal system for middlemen is the exact opposite of an open competitive market: low-risk fat profits flow to monopolies or cartels that obscure costs, and turn sellers and buyers into involuntary participants who have no other choice but to give money to the middlemen.

This is the middleman-skimming economy, in which middlemen are free to skim enormous profits from participants who've been left no other choice. The classic skimming middleman is of course the State (government), which holds a monopoly on violence and other forms of coercion (for example, threats from the F.B.I.: Green is the new red: Will Potter on the problem of treating environmentalists like terrorists).

Everyone who thinks the State is a warm and fuzzy uncle here to help the disadvantaged should study these paragraphs closely:
 

At the Tribune, I was covering breaking news, shootings, murders and local government, and it was all horribly depressing. It was not the type of thing I went into journalism to do. I had a background in college in environmental activism, and protesting the World Trade Organization and the economic sanctions on Iraq, and I wanted to be involved in something positive like that again. So I went out leafletting with a group of people. We just passed out pieces of paper in a residential neighborhood about animal testing. I thought that was the most I could do as a working journalist — something so benign. And of course, since I have the worst luck ever, we were all arrested and charged. It was the only time I’ve been arrested. Those charges were later thrown out, of course. It was a frivolous arrest. And it’s still lawful to pass out handbills.

A couple weeks later, I was visited by two FBI agents at my home, who told me that unless I helped them by becoming an informant and investigating protest groups, they would put me on a domestic terrorist list. They also made some threats about making sure I wouldn’t receive a Fulbright I had applied for, and making sure my girlfriend at the time wouldn’t receive her PhD funding. I really want to think that I wouldn’t be affected by something like that, especially given my activist background, but it just scared the daylights out of me. It really did. That fear eventually turned into an obsession with finding out how this happened, how nonviolent protesters are being labeled as terrorists.

They knew everywhere I worked, they knew my editors at the Tribune, they knew different journalism awards I received — and their message was, “Help us or we’re going to put you on a different path.” And they kept saying, “Don’t throw all this away.” And so at one point, I just said, “What are you going to make go away? This is a class C misdemeanor for leafletting, there’s no way it’s going to hold up in court, and you’re talking about ruining my life.” I of course never became an informant, and never thought about doing anything like that, but — it changed the focus of my work, without a doubt.

There's your warm and fuzzy State in action. I can attest from personal experience that these are exactly the same tactics used to suppress, undermine and criminalize the anti-war movement in the late 1960s and early 70s.

Pimping the Empire, Conservative-Style
Pimping the Empire, Progressive-Style

Substitute middleman-skimming operation for empire and you get the basic idea.

The State is thus the ultimate skimming middleman: Every transactional fee is set by a monopoly seeking maximum profit and/or leverage from every transaction.

In our middleman-skimming economy, the State partners with various private cartels to fix prices, guaranteeing immense profits for the corporate cartels and the State functionaries who enforce the involuntary trade.

Would you like to see the "competitive" healthcare available in your area? It turns out all the insurance plans are ultimately operated by two companies in the cartel–ditto for the hospitals, Big Pharma medications, and so on.

How about our "competitive" national defense weapons industry? Oops, there's only a handful of suppliers–or in many cases, one supplier. Here's your $1,000 hammer–sorry about the high cost, but our overhead costs include very large bribes paid to politicos under the polite guise of "campaign donations." We're sure you understand (snicker).

Higher education is another middleman-skimming operation. Want a degree that may (or may not) still have a few shreds of "value" in the real economy? Pony up $100,000, buster, or better yet, make that $200,000. Here's the friendly Federal government which will issue you the loans to pay us. Oh, and these loans can't be discharged in bankruptcy–they're due and payable for the rest of your days (with rare exceptions that require a full-time legal team and many years of effort).

In a no-middleman system such as the one I propose in The Nearly Free University and The Emerging Economy: The Revolution in Higher Education, students (buyers) pay the lecturers, working professionals/mentors, adaptive learning providers, etc. directly, cutting out the middleman universities entirely because the system is based on the professional model of accredit the student, not the institution.

The same elimination of middleman-skimming is possible in a cash-barter only healthcare system: The "Impossible" Healthcare Solution: Go Back to Cash (July 29, 2009).

The Internet is enabling sellers and buyers to bypass the predatory State and the parasitic middlemen the State enforces. Banks–no longer needed. Sickcare cartels–no longer needed. Higher education cartel–no longer needed.

If you still think all these cartels are essential, please re-read the article on how people find new ways of living and interacting once the corrupt skimming operations of the State and cartels collapse.

After Crisis, Greeks Work to Promote ‘Social’ Economy.

Collapse of this system is akin to the collapse of debt-based serfdom. It's called freedom, and it's only a disaster for the middlemen-skimmers. For the rest of us, it's a new arrangement with many advantages over the long term.


    



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Obamacare, Work Killer

Obamacare isn’t a job killer, at least not
according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). But it is a
work killer.

That might sound like a meaningless distinction, but there is a
difference. Obamacare, according to the CBO, isn’t going to cause
employers to terminate millions of jobs. But it is projected to
cause millions of people—about 2 million in 2017, and 2.5 million
by 2024—to quit working, or work fewer hours than they otherwise
would have.

The White House has declard that this is a good thing. Thanks to
Obamacare, the administration said in a
statement
last week, “individuals will be empowered to make
choices about their own lives and livelihoods, like retiring on
time rather than working into their elderly years or choosing to
spend more time with their families.” People will “no longer be
trapped in a job” just to get coverage. Obamacare will allow people
to “pursue their dreams.”

What might that look like in practice? The bulk of the reduction
in the labor force isn’t expected to occur until 2017, but with the
help of Families USA, a health care advocacy group that supports
Obamacare, The Washington Post has already
found
 of two people who have quit working because the law:
a 56 year-old Indiana woman who left a payroll administration job
when her duties changed and now babysits her granddaughter full
time, and a 44 year-old Texas man who quit an $88,000 job in order
“to help his nephew, a cancer survivor, start a social media and
video-gaming site for other teens with the disease.” It’s an unpaid
position.

Does these examples make the case for Obamacare or against it?
Here are two people who, absent the existence of the law, would be
productive workers contributing to the economy. Thanks to
Obamacare, however, they are not. 

Something like that is expected on a larger scale, although the
impact won’t be distributed evenly across the income spectrum.

That’s because the effect is expected to be concentrated not
amongst the office-dwelling upper-middle class, but down the rungs
of the income ladder, within the cohort of relatively low-wage,
working-class Americans who are already less attached to the labor
force. (This is why the CBO projects that even though labor force
participation will be two points lower than it otherwise would have
been, total compensation will only be reduced by one point.)

The reason the effect is largest amongst the bottom of the
income spectrum is that the law’s insurance subsidies grow as one
makes less money. Sliding-scale subsidies reduce marginal returns
to work, because earning more money has the simultaneous effect of
reducing the value of the subsidy. (Medicaid, for those at the very
bottom of the income scale, has also been shown to discourage
work.) It’s basically a tax on work at the lower end of the income
spectrum.

As the CBO explains, “Subsidies that help lower-income people
purchase an expensive product like health insurance must be
relatively large to encourage a significant proportion of eligible
people to enroll. If those subsidies are phased out with rising
income in order to limit their total costs, the phaseout
effectively raises people’s marginal tax rates (the tax rates
applying to their last dollar of income), thus discouraging
work.”

The simplest way of saying it is that Obamacare makes it less
painful to not work, especially for those who already don’t make
much money. The result is that over the next decade, millions of
people will either work less or not at all. In economic terms, it’s
the same
effect as much of the transfer
spending contained in the big
fiscal stimulus package passed during President Obama’s first year
in office.

Supporters of Obamacare have pointed out that this is true of
all means-tested welfare programs, including some of the
conservative health reform proposals that tie financial assistance
to income levels.

That’s true, but it doesn’t mean that we should simply sigh and
move on. Government transfer programs can be revamped and remodeled
with work in mind. In 2006, when Bill Clinton revisited the welfare
reform he’d passed a as president decade earlier, he declared
it a success
because it encouraged more than a million
people to take up work, and to move beyond government
assistance.

And yet there is a real tension between work and welfare, a
balance between employment and aid. That balance has tipped toward
the latter in recent years, as various parts of the safety net have
expanded to catch those people harmed by the recession. In the
process, as high unemployment has persisted and millions have
dropped out of the market for work entirely, pushing the labor
force participation down to its lowest point since the 1970s, the
political conversation has naturally turned to the question of how
to create jobs. So far, we’ve found frustratingly few good answers.
Which suggests that policymakers concerned about joblessness might
want to consider looking more closely at finding ways to encourage
work—or at the very least, to minimize the ways in which discourage
it. 

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Shikha Dalmia Discusses Detroit and Immigration on Coffee & Markets

Reason Foundation Senior Analyst Shikha Dalmia sipped her cup of
Darjeeling tea and disussed the following questions with co-hosts
of Coffee & Markets Ben Domenech, publisher of The Federalist,
and Brad Jackson of Red State this morning:

Will Quicken Loans’ Dan Gilbert’s plan to save Detroit work? Or
will it drive the city into a bigger hole?

What can Detroit do to regain its former glory?

Why don’t Detroiters care about showering corporate welfare on
Big Business?

Can Republicans crackdown on businesses that hire immgrants and
still pretend to be a free market party?

Will Republicans ever wakeup to the damage their harsh border
policies are doing to their relationship with minorities?

If and when they do wakeup, what can they do to market their
party’s limited government ideas to immigrants?

For this and much more go
here
and listen to the podcast.

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/1lxshrp
via IFTTT

Shikha Dalmia Discusses Detroit and Immigration on Coffee & Markets

Reason Foundation Senior Analyst Shikha Dalmia sipped her cup of
Darjeeling tea and disussed the following questions with co-hosts
of Coffee & Markets Ben Domenech, publisher of The Federalist,
and Brad Jackson of Red State this morning:

Will Quicken Loans’ Dan Gilbert’s plan to save Detroit work? Or
will it drive the city into a bigger hole?

What can Detroit do to regain its former glory?

Why don’t Detroiters care about showering corporate welfare on
Big Business?

Can Republicans crackdown on businesses that hire immgrants and
still pretend to be a free market party?

Will Republicans ever wakeup to the damage their harsh border
policies are doing to their relationship with minorities?

If and when they do wakeup, what can they do to market their
party’s limited government ideas to immigrants?

For this and much more go
here
and listen to the podcast.

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/1lxshrp
via IFTTT

Which Hedge Fund Strategies Will Work In 2014: Deutsche Bank's Take

While January was a bad month for the market, it was certainly one which the majority of hedge funds would also rather forget as we showed yesterday. So with volatility, the lack of a clear daily ramp higher (with the exception of the last 4 days which are straight from the 2013 play book), and, worst of all, that Old Normal staple – risk – back in the picture. what is a collector of 2 and 20 to do (especially since in the post-Steve Cohen world, one must now make their money the old-fashioned way: without access to “expert networks”)? For everyone asking this question, here is Deutsche Bank with its take on which will be the best and worst performing strategies of 2014.

So without further ado, here is the Deutsche Bank Asset and Wealth Management’s forecast of hedge fund performance matrix:

Summary of key drivers for hedge fund returns

Below is a non-exhaustive list of market parameters that we believe drive hedge fund returns and our forecasts for these drivers.

What this means for a balanced hedge fund portfolio is set out below, with desired allocations in the penultimate column

We expect hedge funds will again outperform their historical average return in 2014.  Below, we set out our forecast for each strategy.

Equity long/short: Overweight

Our positive forecast for equity long/short is underpinned by our expectations of steady gains for equities and a helpful environment for stock-pickers, particularly as progress on tapering is priced into markets during the year. The latter will be a continuation of conditions in 2013, when correlations declined within equity markets and managers were rewarded for their research on individual company valuations.

In the US, we think equity markets will reflect company fortunes first and foremost, rather than macro and political influences – we do not expect a re-run of last year’s Congressional stalemate. Overall, the Federal Reserve’s reiteration of its low interest rate policy should support growth and equity valuations.

We have a similar outlook for Europe, where the tail risk of a eurozone unwind has diminished markedly, the German election results support the future of Europe as a single entity, and signs of economic recovery are increasing. In emerging markets, we see more selective opportunities driven by individual country risk.

Equity market neutral: Overweight

Both factor-driven and statistical arbitrage managers should receive tailwinds in 2014. Factor-driven approaches should benefit from the improved stock-picking environment, as well as an increased focus on style and valuation factors by investors in more stable markets. Further support should come from the re-opening of new markets to the strategy (including Japan), as well as reduced capital in the sector, which should expand the opportunities for the remaining universe of managers. Statistical arbitrage managers should also benefit from a relatively uncrowded operating environment, as well as likely intermittent rises in volatility.

Discretionary macro: Neutral/Overweight

For some time this sector has been battling headwinds in the form zero interest rates and compressed FX volatility. We expect these to abate, especially during the second half of 2014, at last allowing managers to expand their opportunity set into interest rate and FX markets. In particular, the timing and pace of tapering in the US should offer opportunities for fixed income curve trading.

The contrast in the use of central bank balance sheets in the US and Europe throughout 2013 – expansion for the Federal Reserve, contraction for the European Central Bank – should create relative fixed income trading opportunities and, by implication, FX opportunities in 2014. Any change in ECB policy, perhaps sparked by the spectre of deflation, will increase volatility and return potential.

In Japan the reflation theme should continue to provide trading opportunities, while in emerging markets weaker economies more reliant on international capital flows should witness higher volatility in their exchange rates.

CTAs: Neutral/Underweight

We are marginally negative on medium-term and long-term trend followers in a portfolio context. CTA strategies will offer more for investors only when trends pervade beyond long equities. For now, long-term trends are likely to be in short supply in an environment of gradually rising equity markets, where the balance of returns is driven by stock-picking.

The Federal Reserve and other central banks are making greater use of forward guidance to try to head off sharp moves in risk assets. That said, some short-term strategies may benefit from the intermittent volatility we expect to see across certain asset classes.

Credit strategies: Neutral/Overweight

Despite current tight spreads and the potential for rising interest rates, we are constructive on credit. These headwinds are tempered somewhat by opportunities in floating-rate paper and higher convertible bond issuance.

Long/short credit strategies should benefit from the improved conditions for fundamental approaches, even though spreads are likely to remain unchanged. In this sector astute research by managers will be required, because many bonds continue to trade above par, limiting the upside against call risk.

There are opportunities for longer-term strategies in structured credit. These are supported by an improving US housing market and the potential for rising interest rates, which would reduce pre-payments and thus support mortgage derivatives. Meanwhile, higher equity markets have spurred new issuance in the convertibles market, creating opportunities in secondary markets.

Event-driven: Overweight

Event-driven strategies should continue to perform well. Activist managers should be able to derive opportunities from the significant cash piles on company balance sheets. For merger specialists, the potential for consolidation in the telecoms and materials sectors especially should drive increased returns. Similarly, we expect better performance for risk arbitrage and merger arbitrage managers on higher deal flow driven by company management teams’ desire – or necessity – to increase return on capital.

Distressed: Underweight

The dearth of bankruptcies (both current and expected) will drag on returns for managers in this sector throughout 2014. Default rates are currently at a historically low level of 2.2% (compared to an average of 4.9%), and forecasts suggest they will remain muted throughout 2014. Debt maturities will not ramp up until late 2016.
Valuations remain full, with defaulting bonds and bank debt trading above long-term averages. The proportion of performing credit trading at either stressed or distressed levels is therefore also historically very low. As a result, there appear to be few opportunities – and significant money is chasing those that do exist, especially in Europe.

 

* * *

Which probably means that in retrospect Distressed – that most universally panned of all strats – will likely be the winner. But then again, this is the New Normal, where nothing makes sense, and where groupthink is generously rewarded…


  
  



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1m3ZYVi Tyler Durden

Which Hedge Fund Strategies Will Work In 2014: Deutsche Bank’s Take

While January was a bad month for the market, it was certainly one which the majority of hedge funds would also rather forget as we showed yesterday. So with volatility, the lack of a clear daily ramp higher (with the exception of the last 4 days which are straight from the 2013 play book), and, worst of all, that Old Normal staple – risk – back in the picture. what is a collector of 2 and 20 to do (especially since in the post-Steve Cohen world, one must now make their money the old-fashioned way: without access to “expert networks”)? For everyone asking this question, here is Deutsche Bank with its take on which will be the best and worst performing strategies of 2014.

So without further ado, here is the Deutsche Bank Asset and Wealth Management’s forecast of hedge fund performance matrix:

Summary of key drivers for hedge fund returns

Below is a non-exhaustive list of market parameters that we believe drive hedge fund returns and our forecasts for these drivers.

What this means for a balanced hedge fund portfolio is set out below, with desired allocations in the penultimate column

We expect hedge funds will again outperform their historical average return in 2014.  Below, we set out our forecast for each strategy.

Equity long/short: Overweight

Our positive forecast for equity long/short is underpinned by our expectations of steady gains for equities and a helpful environment for stock-pickers, particularly as progress on tapering is priced into markets during the year. The latter will be a continuation of conditions in 2013, when correlations declined within equity markets and managers were rewarded for their research on individual company valuations.

In the US, we think equity markets will reflect company fortunes first and foremost, rather than macro and political influences – we do not expect a re-run of last year’s Congressional stalemate. Overall, the Federal Reserve’s reiteration of its low interest rate policy should support growth and equity valuations.

We have a similar outlook for Europe, where the tail risk of a eurozone unwind has diminished markedly, the German election results support the future of Europe as a single entity, and signs of economic recovery are increasing. In emerging markets, we see more selective opportunities driven by individual country risk.

Equity market neutral: Overweight

Both factor-driven and statistical arbitrage managers should receive tailwinds in 2014. Factor-driven approaches should benefit from the improved stock-picking environment, as well as an increased focus on style and valuation factors by investors in more stable markets. Further support should come from the re-opening of new markets to the strategy (including Japan), as well as reduced capital in the sector, which should expand the opportunities for the remaining universe of managers. Statistical arbitrage managers should also benefit from a relatively uncrowded operating environment, as well as likely intermittent rises in volatility.

Discretionary macro: Neutral/Overweight

For some time this sector has been battling headwinds in the form zero interest rates and compressed FX volatility. We expect these to abate, especially during the second half of 2014, at last allowing managers to expand their opportunity set into interest rate and FX markets. In particular, the timing and pace of tapering in the US should offer opportunities for fixed income curve trading.

The contrast in the use of central bank balance sheets in the US and Europe throughout 2013 – expansion for the Federal Reserve, contraction for the European Central Bank – should create relative fixed income trading opportunities and, by implication, FX opportunities in 2014. Any change in ECB policy, perhaps sparked by the spectre of deflation, will increase volatility and return potential.

In Japan the reflation theme should continue to provide trading opportunities, while in emerging markets weaker economies more reliant on international capital flows should witness higher volatility in their exchange rates.

CTAs: Neutral/Underweight

We are marginally negative on medium-term and long-term trend followers in a portfolio context. CTA strategies will offer more for investors only when trends pervade beyond long equities. For now, long-term trends are likely to be in short supply in an environment of gradually rising equity markets, where the balance of returns is driven by stock-picking.

The Federal Reserve and other central banks are making greater use of forward guidance to try to head off sharp moves in risk assets. That said, some short-term strategies may benefit from the intermittent volatility we expect to see across certain asset classes.

Credit strategies: Neutral/Overweight

Despite current tight spreads and the potential for rising interest rates, we are constructive on credit. These headwinds are tempered somewhat by opportunities in floating-rate paper and higher convertible bond issuance.

Long/short credit strategies should benefit from the improved conditions for fundamental approaches, even though spreads are likely to remain unchanged. In this sector astute research by managers will be required, because many bonds continue to trade above par, limiting the upside against call risk.

There are opportunities for longer-term strategies in structured credit. These are supported by an improving US housing market and the potential for rising interest rates, which would reduce pre-payments and thus support mortgage derivatives. Meanwhile, higher equity markets have spurred new issuance in the convertibles market, creating opportunities in secondary markets.

Event-driven: Overweight

Event-driven strategies should continue to perform well. Activist managers should be able to derive opportunities from the significant cash piles on company balance sheets. For merger specialists, the potential for consolidation in the telecoms and materials sectors especially should drive increased returns. Similarly, we expect better performance for risk arbitrage and merger arbitrage managers on higher deal flow driven by company management teams’ desire – or necessity – to increase return on capital.

Distressed: Underweight

The dearth of bankruptcies (both current and expected) will drag on returns for managers in this sector throughout 2014. Default rates are currently at a historically low level of 2.2% (compared to an average of 4.9%), and forecasts suggest they will remain muted throughout 2014. Debt maturities will not ramp up until late 2016.
Valuations remain full, with defaulting bonds and bank debt trading above long-term averages. The proportion of performing credit trading at either stressed or distressed levels is therefore also historically very low. As a result, there appear to be few opportunities – and significant money is chasing those that do exist, especially in Europe.

 

* * *

Which probably means that in retrospect Distressed – that most universally panned of all strats – will likely be the winner. But then again, this is the New Normal, where nothing makes sense, and where groupthink is generously rewarded…


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1m3ZYVi Tyler Durden

Viola Marwitz Rooks of Fayetteville

On February 7th, 2014, just shy of her 90th birthday and minutes after the birth of her second great-great granddaughter, Viola Marwitz Rooks “…slipped the surly bonds of earth…” and joined our Heavenly Father with her beloved husband Jack, Mama and Papa, brothers Carl, Alvin and Norman, sister Eldora and their spouses, and baby nephew little Lester Marwitz.

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via The Citizen http://ift.tt/1jtR4yA