Russia’s Trap: Luring Sunnis Into War

Submitted by Burak Bekdil via The Gatestone Institute,

  • Washington should think more than twice about allowing Turkey and Saudi Arabia, its Sunni allies, militarily to engage their Shiite enemies in Syria. Allowing Sunni supremacists into a deeper sectarian war is not a rational way to block Russian expansion in the eastern Mediterranean. And it certainly will not serve America's interests.

  • Turkey and Saudi Arabia are too weak militarily to damage Russia's interests. It is a Russian trap — and precisely what the Russians are hoping their enemies will fall into.

After Russia's increasingly bold military engagement in war-torn Syria in favor of President Bashar al-Assad and the Shiite bloc, the regional Sunni powers — Turkey and its ally, Saudi Arabia — have felt nervous and incapable of influencing the civil war in favor of the many Islamist groups fighting Assad's forces.

Most recently, the Turks and Saudis, after weeks of negotiations, decided to flex their muscles and join forces to engage a higher-intensity war in the Syrian theater. This is dangerous for the West. It risks provoking further Russian and Iranian involvement in Syria, and sparking a NATO-Russia confrontation.

After Turkey, citing violation of its airspace, shot down a Russian Su-24 military jet on Nov. 24, Russia has used the incident as a pretext to reinforce its military deployments in Syria and bomb the "moderate Islamists." Those are the Islamists who fight Assad's forces and are supported by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The Russian move included installing the advanced S-400 long-range air and anti-missile defense systems.

Fearing that the new player in the game could vitally damage their plans to install a Sunni regime in Damascus, Turkey and Saudi Arabia now say they are ready to challenge the bloc consisting of Assad's forces, Russia, and Shiite militants from Iran and Lebanon.

As always, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu spoke in a way that forcefully reminded Turkey-watchers of the well-known phrase: Turkey's bark is worse than its bite. "No one," he said on Feb. 9, "should forget how the Soviet forces, which were a mighty, super force during the Cold War and entered Afghanistan, then left Afghanistan in a servile situation. Those who entered Syria today will also leave Syria in a servile way." In other words, Davutoglu was telling the Russians: Get out of Syria; we are coming in. The Russians did not even reply. They just kept on bombing.

Will direct military involvement in Syria by Turkey and Saudi Arabia spark a NATO-Russia confrontation? Pictured: Russian President Vladimir Putin with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (then prime minister), meeting in Istanbul on December 3, 2012. (Image source:kremlin.ru)

Turkey keeps threatening to increase its military role in Syria. Deputy Prime Minister Yalcin Akdogan pledged that Turkey will no longer be in a "defensive position" over maintaining its national security interests amid developments in Syria. "Can any team," he said, "play defensively at all times but still win a match? … You can win nothing by playing defensively and you can lose whatever you have. There is a very dynamic situation in the region and one has to read this situation properly. One should end up withdrawn because of concerns and fears."

Is NATO member Turkey going to war in order to fulfill its Sunni sectarian objectives? And are its Saudi allies joining in? If the Sunni allies are not bluffing, they are already giving signals of what may eventually turn into a new bloody chapter in the sectarian proxy war in Syria.

First, Saudi Arabia announced that it was sending fighter jets to the Incirlik air base in southern Turkey, where U.S. and other allied aircraft have been hitting Islamic State strongholds inside Syria. Saudi military officials said that their warplanes would intensify aerial operations in Syria.

Second, and more worryingly, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that Turkey and Saudi Arabia could engage in ground operations inside Syria. He also said that the two countries had long been weighing a cross-border operation into Syria — with the pretext of fighting Islamic State, but in fact hoping to bolster the Sunni groups fighting against the Shiite bloc — but they have not yet made a decision.

In contrast, Saudi officials look more certain about a military intervention. A Saudi brigadier-general said that a joint Turkish-Saudi ground operation in Syria was being planned. He even said that Turkish and Saudi military experts would meet in the coming days to finalize "the details, the task force and the role to be played by each country."

In Damascus, the Syrian regime said that any ground operation inside Syria's sovereign borders would "amount to aggression that must be resisted."

It should be alarming for the West if Turkey and Saudi Arabia, two important U.S. allies, have decided to fight a strange cocktail of enemies on Syrian territory, including Syrian forces, radical jihadists, various Shiite forces and, most critically, Russia — all in order to support "moderate" Islamists. That may be the opening of a worse disaster in Syria, possibly spanning over the next 10 to 15 years.

The new Sunni adventurism will likely force Iran to augment its military engagement in Syria. It will create new tensions between Turkey-Saudi Arabia and Iraq's Shiite-dominated government. It may also spread and destabilize other Middle Eastern theaters, where the Sunni bloc, consisting of Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, may have to engage in new proxy wars with the Shiite bloc plus Russia.

Washington should think more than twice about allowing its Sunni allies militarily to engage their Shiite enemies. This may be a war with no winners but plenty of casualties and collateral damage. Allowing Sunni supremacists into a deeper sectarian war is not a rational way to block Russian expansion in the eastern Mediterranean. And it certainly will not serve America's interests.

Turkey with Saudi Arabia are too weak militarily to damage Russia's interests. It is a Russian trap — and precisely what the Russians are hoping their enemies will fall into.


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1XwPOeM Tyler Durden

Visualizing America’s Shocking Defense Spending

Wouldn’t it be a strange world to live in if 50% of military spending was paid for by just 5% of the population? Sometimes truth is stranger than fiction.

 

Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

 

Every year, the United States government spends the equivalent of $3,300 for each working citizen on its military budget. In aggregate, this grand total of $610 billion in defense spending amounts to about half of the dollars globally spent on the military.

With $216 billion spent per year, China has the next largest budget by far. But, to get to a number even close to U.S. spending, the military budgets of China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, India, Japan, United Kingdom, and France would have to be added together.

From another perspective, the amount of annual defense spending per working person in the U.S. is higher than the income per capita of 70 countries, including places such as Morocco, Nigeria, Nicaragua, India, and Ukraine.

This means that if somehow the people of Nicaragua were taxed 100% with all money going to defense, it would only amount to a budget 1.8% of the size of America’s.

Source: Visual Capitalist


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1U6SqQS Tyler Durden

The Mainstream Media Wants Marco Rubio To Be Your Next President

Submitted by Neal Gabler via TheAntiMedia.org,

So here is how you play the media like an accordion.

First, you deliver a debate performance so notably bad, so mechanical and unthinking, that you have everyone buzzing about it, even those in the media who gush over you. Then you take responsibility for being awful because, after all, you don’t want to give the impression that you might not really be responsible for uttering the words you uttered – four times.

 

Then you invite a bunch of reporters on your campaign plane to show what a personable fellow Marco Rubio is, how unrehearsed and natural, and they take the bait, basically writing mash notes about how unrehearsed and natural you are. Note Sean Sullivan of The Washington Post: “His hour-long charter flight interview also did not begin with an emphasis on his ‘new American century’ theme, as is often the case. Instead, it started with Twix bars: Rubio wanted to demonstrate how cold and hard they were after explaining at breakfast that he had cracked a molar biting into one.” What a normal, unrobotic guy!

 

And then the piece de resistance. You don’t repeat yourself mindlessly at the next debate. You give exactly the same kind of debate performance you gave before Gov. Chris Christie called you out, sounding like a polished kid in a high school debate club. And guess what? Surprise of surprises, the media declare you the winner because you didn’t make the same idiotic mistake you made the last time out. Chris Cillizza of the Post found him “thoughtful, nuanced and convincing.” (Whatever else one might say about them, nuanced is about the last thing any of these Republicans is.) The reliable Republican booster, Jennifer Rubin, in the same paper called his performance a “strong comeback.” CNN: “Rubio turned in a notably better performance than he did the last time.” Charles Krauthammer: “I think he was number one, Rubio.” And, best of all, from the Washington Examiner: “The narrative coming out of this debate will be about Rubio redeeming himself.”

Exactly. The narrative the press comes away with – the narrative they just happen to be writing — is that Rubio is back. But, let’s face it. He isn’t back because he was so brilliant last Saturday night, wielding some sort of rapier wit or intellectual superiority or a plethora of ideas. The New York Times, which hasn’t had much of a Rubio crush, save for a small post-Iowa lapse, found him lackluster. No. He’s back because the media desperately need him to come back to save the Republic from Trump and Cruz. The media, who are usually just content to stir up some trouble so that they can cover it, have got a horse in this race, and they are going to keep whipping him to the finish line, even after he stumbles.

It’s enough to give you whiplash. Two weeks ago, the media cheered Marco Rubio’s third-place finish in the Iowa caucuses – yes, third place – as a stunning victory. On Tuesday, NBC Nightly News declared “Rubio Rising.” Before the Iowa vote, The New York Times reported, “A Resurgent Marco Rubio Sprints to the Finish in Iowa” and then, after the vote, bannered, “Marco Rubio Sees Bounce in Latest New Hampshire Poll.”

Two days later it ran an idolatrous piece (that aforementioned lapse) which would turn into a major goof considering what was to come: “Once Cautious in Campaign, Rubio Shows More of His Personal Side.” The AP also gushed: “Rubio Could See Fortunes Rise From Iowa Finish.” “Rubio Soars,” wrote Washington Post columnist Jennifer Rubin. CNN’s Alex Conant explained, “Why Marco Rubio is the Real Winner.” Bill O’Reilly declared “Rubio a big winner.” Did I mention he finished third with 23% of the vote?

Then came New Hampshire, where Rubio finished fifth behind even the political zombie Jeb Bush, prompting Nick Baumann of The Huffington Post to crack sarcastically: “Marco Rubio Was the Real Winner of the New Hampshire Primary.” And now? He’s baaaack

Before we get to the debate debacle in which New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie eviscerated Rubio and derailed his candidacy (at least temporarily), you have to understand why the media seem to love Rubio, and why they were willing to elevate him to frontrunner status when he was barely registering in the polls they so worship, not only because it helps explain Rubio but also because it helps explain the media.

It was back in February 2013 that TIME magazine ran its now-famous cover of Rubio, staring confidently into the camera, with “The Republican Savior” slathered over him in big yellow letters. Here is how Michael Grunwald’s article began:

“Oriales Garcia Rubio knows how it feels to want more. When she was a girl in central Cuba in the 1930s, her family of nine lived in a one-room house with a dirt floor. Her dolls were Coke bottles dressed in rags. She dreamed of becoming an actress. Instead she married a security guard, moved with him to the U.S. and found work as a hotel maid. Her husband got a job as a bartender while starting a series of failed businesses – a vegetable stand, a dry cleaner, a grocery. They never had much. But their house had a real floor. Their daughters had real dolls. They sent all four of their children to college to chase their own dreams.”

No, that’s not a Rubio press release. That was actually written by a journalist. But you can see the appeal. It is a stirring if somewhat stale narrative, and the media are narratively driven. It panders to American exceptionalism, and the media are, after all, in the pandering business. And it turns Rubio into a star, and the media are into the star making.

None of this would matter, of course, if Rubio didn’t also have the aesthetic desiderata the media adore. Despite the saying that politics is show business for ugly people, the media recognize the role of aesthetics. Mitt Romney based his entire political career on them. Rubio was young, which meant he was new – an iPhone 6 in an iPhone 5 business. He had “boyish good looks” according to Grunwald. He knew how to give a good speech – “a compelling speaker,” said Grunwald. He was Hispanic in a party that had pretty much disdained Hispanics even though that demographic was expanding. And he had seemed to strike a balance between idealism and pragmatism – between the aspirational, as pundits like to call it, and the political.

In short, he was a designer candidate – practically hand-tooled to fill the holes in the Republican demographic, which is why he was allowed to jump the line to get to the presidency.

And then there was the symmetry. Rubio is often called the GOP’s Barack Obama, given their ages and the fact that both were first-term senators at the time of their candidacies. They each have minority status, they delivered well-received keynote speeches at their party conventions, and they were ambitious enough not to wait their turn. (Of course the dissimilarities are far more striking.)

The mainstream media love this sort of symmetry – Rubio is Obama, Sanders is Trump, the Clintons are the Bushes — presumably because it allows them to appear balanced and thus defend themselves from the bias flak they invariably take. It is the Newton’s Law of political coverage that for every action in one party, there is an equal and opposite reaction in the other, though these are usually false equivalencies that have served to make the Republican Party seem more rational than it really is. Denial of climate change? Well, Democrats want to stop coal-burning plants. So there!

For Rubio, symmetry had another advantage besides making him seem less extremist. It made him the youthful idealist of the party, its unifier, and blessed him with a sense of Obama-like inevitability.

And  that was before the 2016 race began to unfold. No one suspected in the early going that Donald Trump, a kind of novelty candidate, would actually gain traction, much less become a serious contender. And though the media knew that Cruz would have a formidable advantage in his evangelical base, no one took him seriously as the actual nominee for the simple reason that just about everyone in the party except the extremist rank and file hated him.

Rubio’s only real competitor for what pundits call the “moderate lane” way back in the fall was Jeb Bush, and he was a tired one at that. Once the race began, however, and Trump and Cruz attracted their constituencies, while Jeb foundered, the Florida senator became not only the Chosen One but also the Great Hispanic Hope who, we are told endlessly, is the candidate who can and must stop Trump and Cruz from getting the nomination. Among party stalwarts, Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight has him with a commanding lead in the endorsement poll.

It is certainly no coincidence that the media, who loathed Trump and didn’t like Cruz much either, saw Rubio as their kind of candidate, too. That is precisely the argument New York Times’ columnist Ross Douthat made back in October when he predicted Rubio would be the GOP nominee. The party had no choice, he wrote, since it couldn’t possibly nominate Trump (or Carson back then) and Cruz had that likeability problem. And don’t forget this when you consider why Rubio is such a media favorite: whereas Trump and Cruz don’t need the media, Rubio needs them desperately. With his thin resume, they give him credibility. The media enjoy that power. They like being kingmakers, or even savior-makers.

The new narrative of the campaign season, then, was that Trump might pull in the “angries” and Cruz the “crazies,” but that one establishment candidate would emerge to stop them and that Rubio was the most likely to do so, which is why he got such an outpouring of media attention after Iowa. Not incidentally, this also plays into one of the few demonstrable media biases. The mainstream press likes moderates, or at least those they perceive to be moderates, much better than it likes extremists or alleged extremists. Presumably it fits the press’s self-image both as objective observers and as national stewards, gently guiding the country away from the fringes. Rubio is not a moderate by any means. In fact, he brags that he is the most conservative candidate in the race, and he might not be far off. But in this field, the media have apparently decided he is one because, again, they may feel they have no other choice.

So there it was – Trump bloviating toward a New Hampshire victory, Cruz lazing his way through the state on his way to Super Tuesday and the South, and Rubio, the fair-haired boy, needing only a second or third-place finish to set the media hearts aflutter. What happened last Saturday night at the Republican debate, with Chris Christie’s perfectly timed attack on Rubio’s authenticity, suddenly changed all that.

We know now that Rubio committed a huge gaffe by repeating verbatim four times a little speech about Obama deliberately changing America, just as Christie was accusing him of repeating the same rote speeches again and again and again. (It is worth mentioning, since no one seems to have done so, that the substance of Rubio’s charge of Obama being the first president to change the country, which should have been the object of obloquy, is both idiotic and just plain wrong.) But the problem really wasn’t that Rubio was on autopilot. He had been on autopilot throughout the entire campaign. Indeed, Rubio had often been praised by the media for the very thing Christie called him out on. Rubio had “got his message locked down,” according to one reporter. He was “well-spoken” and “articulate” – a “great debater.” In debate after debate, in which he recited his talking points mechanically without any hesitation or evident ratiocination, the pundits declared him a winner.

What voters didn’t seem to know, and what they certainly weren’t told by the media, is that whenever Rubio appeared, he was regurgitating what he had memorized. If you do a Lexis-Nexis search of the terms “Rubio” and “robot” in major newspapers from January 1 through February 6, here is what you will find: Not once was the term “robot” or “robotic” applied to him.

Political reporter Jason Zengerle of GQ explained why. “Want to know a dirty little secret about political journalists?” he wrote on his blog after the debate. “A lot of the time, we don’t pay attention to the speeches of the politicians we cover.”

Yes, they all heard Rubio saying the same things over and over. The father/bartender story, the mother/K-Mart story, the American Dream stuff, etc. etc., etc. – all canned. And, Zengerle goes on: “Even Rubio’s jokes are canned. And Rubio doesn’t merely confine these lines to his stump speech. They unerringly show up in debates and his answers to voters’ questions, as well. In fact, when The New York Times recently published a story about Rubio’s supposedly ‘intimate—and increasingly improvised—glimpses’ into his life in response to voters’ questions [the story cited earlier], at least two of the examples buttressing this dubious claim were well-worn passages from his stump speech.”

So, many in the press knew. They knew what Christie knew. They knew Rubio wouldn’t, couldn’t, deviate from the script. Why didn’t they tell us? Because they didn’t much care, even if Rubio continuously crossed the line from repetitive to rehearsed to robotic. What’s more, they didn’t think the voters would care either.

Again, Zengerle of Christie’s criticisms: “It was hard to imagine them striking a chord with voters.” Even after Rubio’s Teddy Ruxpin performance, Byron York of the Washington Examiner wrote that the press coverage of Rubio’s debate flub “showed again how the concerns of the media commentators are sometimes far from the minds of the actual voters.” And, York didn’t seem to realize, sometimes they aren’t. The press couldn’t imagine that voters might actually want candidates who were thoughtful and authentic and intellectually nimble.

What the MSM did not think worthy of reporting, however, the blogosphere did report. (In fairness, one local New Hampshire reporter, Erik Eisele of The Conway Daily Sun, wrote on December 23, after spending twenty minutes with Rubio for an editorial interview, that “it was like someone wound him up, pointed him towards the doors, and pushed play.”) Go back into the Twitter-sphere – way back to last year – and you’ll find hundreds if not thousands of tweets talking specifically about Rubio’s repetitions, about his canned speeches, about his avoiding answering press questions, about his obsession with his talking points. The tweeters knew, many of them, because they had seen him doing it during the debates – the very same debate performances the media lauded. And when Christie, who may very well have been following the lead of the Twitter-sphere, lunged, Twitter erupted. (An argument actually ensued over whether Marcobot was a better moniker for Rubio than Rubiobot.) It took Christie to do the work the media should have been doing. But it probably took the blogosphere and social media to poke Christie.

And then, and only then, the media pounced, not because they observed something they hadn’t previously seen, but because, I guess, they didn’t want to be left behind by the social media. (It is hard to keep a tally of how many YouTube views of the Rubio repetitions there have been; I lost count at about two million.) Thus did Rubio’s standard operating procedure become his Howard Dean Scream or his Rick Perry Brain Freeze.

But there were differences between his gaffe and theirs, not the least being that Rubio’s was not an aberration; it was his campaign. The media didn’t need any prompting to humiliate and ultimately destroy Dean and Perry because the media didn’t particularly like them. Dean’s media narrative was that he was a lucky, somewhat daffy, beneficiary of a leftish tilt in the Democratic Party after the Iraq War, and Perry’s was that he was a dunce. Their actions only confirmed the pre-existing narratives, and the media were only too happy to amplify their missteps in print and on the air. (When you come right down to it, Dean’s exuberance, which turned out to be a mic problem not a candidate problem, or Perry’s forgetfulness really weren’t much of anything, except for confirming the media narrative.)

On the other hand, the media liked Rubio. They were the ones who had helped propel him. They didn’t want to pile on. But when Christie underlined Rubio’s mindless parroting, he not only struck at one of the struts of Rubio’s alleged strength – that well-spokenness – and made him look foolish, he made the media look foolish, too. Rubio turned out to be a confirmation of exactly what Christie had said he was – a “student council president,” an empty suit, a face-man. As Ross Douthat, who had predicted Rubio’s eventual victory, tweeted that debate night: “I’ve watched Rubio for a long time, always thought that critiques of him as a talking points robot were way overblown. But oh dear.”

You might have thought Rubio would be finished. And If Marcobot had become a meme, like the Scream or the Brain Freeze, he would indeed have become political toast. Now we know that is not going to happen. The only story the media like better than burying a candidate is resurrecting one, and Rubio had already been anointed the savior. What’s more, the GOP establishment and the media still need their unifier, the hero to oppose the villains Trump and Cruz, and there aren’t too many candidates left from whom to choose, only Rubio, Bush and Kasich. And Rubio, for his part, has a Dracula candidacy. You get the feeling you’ll have to put a stake through its heart to stop it.

Trying to save himself, Rubio was contrite on election night in New Hampshire. He said he accepted responsibility for what had happened and promised he wouldn’t do it again, though exactly what that meant was hard to parse. Of course, he was responsible. Who else could be? And what wouldn’t he do again? Repeat himself word for word four times while he was being told he kept repeating himself? But no sooner had Rubio issued his mea culpa than Van Jones, one of CNN’s talking heads, pronounced himself impressed, and said it “took a lot of character” for Rubio to do what he had done. Later that week, on the PBS NewsHour, Mark Shields said the same thing. He actually praised Rubio for taking responsibility.

So the rehabilitation had begun almost as soon as the New Hampshire debate ended, and it was pre-ordained that as soon as the South Carolina debate ended, the media would announce that Rubio is back on the ascent — a self-fulfilling prophecy, if ever there was one. After all, the media were the ones writing the script. It is going to take a lot more than self-inflicted wounds to fell this candidacy. It is going to take an objective media. Good luck with that.


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/20YkzyR Tyler Durden

50% Of Canadians Say They Are Within $200/Month Of Being Unable To Pay Their Bills

It was just last month when we profiled Canada’s “other problem”: record high household debt.

Canada is struggling to cope with falling crude prices which have put enormous amounts of pressure on some parts of the country, most notably Alberta, where suicide rates are on the rise, as is property crime and foodbank usage.

Amid the malaise, households are also being pressured by persistent CAD weakness – which is of course a symptom of falling crude. The currency’s decline has driven up prices for things like fresh fruits and vegetables, 75% of which Canada imports. That puts an extra burden on households that are already laboring under record debt.

As we showed three weeks ago, household debt relative to disposable income is sitting at 171% in Canada meaning that for every $100 in disposable income, households have debt obligations of $171. That’s the highest figure for any G7 country.

That’s disconcerting for any number of reasons. As we wrote, “this would be bad enough in a favorable economic environment with a benign outlook for rates, but it’s a veritable nightmare when the economy is sliding headlong into recession and central planners are hell bent on trying to normalize policy some time in the next five or so years.”

In other words, the outlook for Canada’s economy isn’t good, and that means joblessness is likely to rise going forward…

But interest rates have virtually nowhere to go but up – at least in the medium to long-term. Sure Stephen Poloz may cut rates one or two more times to try and help the oil patch avert certain insolvency, but at 50 bps, there’s only so much lower Canada can go unless the BoC intends to experiment with NIRP. 

This means that households could face the disastrous prospect of rising rates in an unfavorable economic environment. Think a monetary policy mistake like hiking into a recession can’t happen? Just look at what the Fed did in December. Throw in the fact that many families are overburdened thanks to the astronomical cost of housing in places like Vancouver and Toronto and one is inclined to think that some Canadian households may find themselves in quite a bit of trouble going forward. 

But don’t take our word for it, just ask Canadians, half of whom said in response to a new Ipsos Reid survey that they are within $200 per month of not being able to pay their bills and make their debt payments.

“Ipsos Reid conducted the poll about a week after the Parliamentary Budget Office issued a report on Jan. 19 that said Canada has seen the largest increase in household debt relative to income of any G7 country since 2000,” The Calgary Herald writes, adding that “31 per cent of respondents said any increase in interest rates could move them towards bankruptcy“.

The survey also found that 25% of Canadians are already unable to cover their bills and service their debt.

So what do you do if you’re the BoC? Cut rates to boost the economy and rescue the oil patch at the risk of driving the cost of imported goods through the roof, thus pressuring consumer spending and thereby creating another headwind for the economy? Or hike to bolster the loonie at the risk of tanking not only the oil patch but also the 31% of the country that say they’ll slip into bankruptcy it rates rise?

Your guess is as good as ours.


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1R7cQqd Tyler Durden

“We’re Voting With Our Middle Finger”: South Carolina Explains Why It Will Pick Trump

Earlier today, we noted that going into the South Carolina primary, Donald Trump is sitting on a commanding lead not just in the state, where he’s up 17 points, but nationally, where his lead over Ted Cruz is an even larger 20 points.

Perhaps most disconcerting for Cruz, Trump has a nine point national edge among white evangelicals, a voter base the Texas senator should by all rights dominate. Trump is also only 3 points behind Cruz among voters who identify as “very conservative.”

In short, the Teflon Don is living up to the hype and while everyone was laughing last summer when Trump declared his candidacy, the only one who is laughing now is Trump himself.

Some were surprised that the latest GOP debate – which appeared at times as though it might devolve into a fist fight – didn’t dent Trump’s numbers. We’re not sure why the shock.

Quite a bit of what Trump said at the debate was true. America shouldn’t have gone to Iraq. There were no weapons of mass destruction. Jeb Bush’s brother didn’t prevent 9/11. All of those statements – which drew boos from a crowd Trump claimed was stacked with Bush supporters – pale in comparison to virtually everything else the bellicose billionaire has said on the campaign trail. We’re talking about a candidate that called immigrants rapists, says he will demand that Mexico pay for a wall on the border, said John McCain isn’t a war hero, and called for a ban on Muslims. And people are somehow surprised that a few slightly controversial comments about foreign policy didn’t sink him in the polls? The most amusing thing about the debate – well, besides how utterly absurd it was – was that Trump at times appeared to have a better grip on foreign policy than anyone else on the stage.

In any event, The LA Times is out with a new piece that explores why South Carolina voters are overwhelmingly coming out in support of Trump. Excerpts are presented below, but John Baldwin, a used-car dealer from Greenville summed up the mood quite succinctly: “We’re voting with our middle finger,” he declares. We imagine Bernie Sanders’ supporters would say the exact same thing, if asked. A message to Washington’s entrenched political aristocracy: Americans have just given you the finger. Literally.

*  *  *

From The LA Times

Robert Bowers, a 50-year-old debt collector, conceded that Donald Trump may have gone “overboard just a little bit” when he attacked President George W. Bush, saying he lied about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and failed to stop the Sept. 11 attacks.

But that did not stop Bowers, of Fountain Inn, S.C., from putting on a cap with Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan and walking through an icy cold parking lot so he could crowd into a raucous Trump rally Monday night.

“I hope he drops an F-bomb,” one fan said to another on the way into the rally.

During past controversies, Trump’s supporters have stuck with him, believing his unvarnished criticism of immigrants, Muslims, women and Sen. John McCain’s war record shows he is willing to take on establishment interests and unwilling to bend to what he calls political correctness.

“We’re voting with our middle finger,” said John Baldwin, a used-car dealer from Greenville.

Baldwin and his wife were passing out stickers and signs calling Trump’s supporters the “silent majority,” a phrase that dates to President Nixon and is used by Trump to assert that he is giving voice to beliefs that others are afraid to say out loud.

Betty Carter also didn’t like the way Trump went after former President Bush. But she’s still sticking with him.

“He needs to know where he is: He’s in Bush country,” she said waiting in a long line to see him Tuesday afternoon at Riverview Park in North Augusta, where she moved more than 15 years ago to care for her grandkids. “I didn’t like it, but I’m still voting for him.”

Monday night’s rally was typical of Trump’s performances, which feel like arena rock concerts as much as political events. Thousands packed into the TD Convention Center. Many stood along the sides of the cavernous convention hall when the seats ran out. Others were sent to an overflow room or turned away. Giant screens lit up Trump’s face; spotlights vacillated in front of the stage; Van Halen music blared.

“Didn’t you love this last debate?” Trump said to cheers. “They came at me from every angle.”

We shouldn’t have gone into Iraq. That was a big mistake because it destabilized the whole Middle East,” Trump said. “Some people say ‘Oh, don’t say that.’”

“Everything you see right now is an offshoot of that decision,” he added,

Saddam Hussein killed terrorists,” Trump said. “He didn’t do it politically correct. He found a terrorist, they were gone within five seconds, OK. With us, we find a terrorist, it’s going to be 25 years and a trial.”

*  *  *

We’re reasonbly sure Trump has no idea that Islamic State’s top ranks are almost entirely comprised of former Baathists.

But in this case we’ll forgive his ignorance because when he says that everything wrong in the Mid-East today is “an offshoot” of the decision to invade Iraq, he is 100% correct.


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1PPGLk1 Tyler Durden

Guest Post: Abolish The Supreme Court

Submitted by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

The current frenzy over the vacancy on the Supreme Court in the wake of Scalia’s death should be enough to make it clear to even the most naïve observer that the Supreme Court is a partisan and political institution, and nothing like the group of disinterested non-political sages that we are supposed to believe the court to be. As I wrote in “The Mythology of the Supreme Court,” the idea of the court as a group of jurisprudential deep thinkers is a tale for little school children:

This view of the court is of course hopelessly fanciful, and the truly political nature of the court is well documented. Its politics can take many forms. For an example of its role in political patronage, we need look no further than Earl Warren, a one-time candidate for president and governor of California, who was appointed to the court by Dwight Eisenhower. It is widely accepted that Warren’s appointment was payback for Warren’s non-opposition to Eisenhower’s nomination at the 1952 Republican convention. The proposition that Warren somehow transformed from politician to Deep Thinker after his appointment is unconvincing at best. Or we might point to the famous “switch in time that saved nine” in which Justice Owen Roberts completely reversed his legal position on the New Deal in response to political threats from the Franklin Roosevelt administration. Indeed, Supreme Court justices are politicians, who behave in the manner Public Choice theory tells us they should. They seek to preserve and expand their own power.

In practice, the Supreme Court is just another federal legislature, although this one decides matters of public policy based on the opinions of a mere five people, most of whom spend their time utterly divorced from the economic realities of ordinary people while cavorting with oligarchs and other elites.

The court’s legislative power is matched by its political power since every vacancy on the court is a gift to the dominant political parties. Every time a justice dies or retires, the event provides political parties with yet another opportunity to issue hysterical fundraising letters to the more monied supporters and demand unqualified support from the rank and file while claiming the SCOTUS-appointment process makes the next election “the most important ever.”

It seems to bother few, however, that we live in a political system where the most important political and economic matters of the day — or so we are told — are to be decided by a tiny handful of people, whether they be the chairman of the Federal Reserve, five Supreme Court justices, or a president with his “pen and phone.”  

Just as it is supremely dysfunctional for a major economy to hang on every word of a central bank chairman, so too should it be considered abnormal and unhealthy for a country of 320 million people to wait with bated breath for the latest prognostications of nine friends of presidents in black robes from their palatial offices in Washington, DC.

The Court Is Just a Group of Nine Politicians in Fancy Robes

We’re told by pundits and politicians from across the spectrum how indispensable, awe-inspiring, and absolutely essential the Supreme Court is. In truth, we should be looking for ways to undermine, cripple, and to generally force the Court into irrelevance.

With the expected eulogies for Scalia among his supporters, we’re being berated with the idea that Scalia was an “originalist” who stuck doggedly to the clear text of the Constitution as imagined by its authors. In truth, Scalia was no originalist, since, if he had been one, he would have rejected the whole notion of judicial review, which is itself a total innovation and fabrication dreamed up by Chief Justice John Marshall. Absolutely nowhere does Article III of the Constitution (the part that deals with the court, and is half a page long) give the court the power to decide on what can be legal or not in every state, town, village or business of the United States. Moreover, as Jeff Deist notes today, the Court’s powers we so blithely accept as fait accompli are mostly made up:

  • The concept of judicial review is a fabrication by the Court, with no basis in Article III. 
  • Constitutional jurisprudence is not constitutional law.
  • The Supreme Court is supreme only over lower federal courts: it is not supreme over other branches of government.
  • Congress plainly has constitutional authority to define and restrict the jurisdiction of federal courts.

A Tool of Centralization of Power

But don’t look for many in Washington to admit this any time soon. The Supreme Court serves a very important function in centralizing federal power in DC and in the hands of a small number of senior federal personnel. And how convenient it is for members of the ruling classes to influence and access these guardians of the federal government's intellectual respectability: the members of the court, presidents, and senators are all generally all members of the same socio-economic class, send their children to the same elite schools, and work and live together in the same small social circles. At the same time, this closed social and professional circle also helps to diminish the influence of those outside the Washington, DC bubble. 

The Court in Its Present Form Could be Abolished Overnight

If it wished to, Congress could overhaul the Court this afternoon. Nothing more than simple legislation would be necessary to radically change or completely abolish the lower federal courts.  Congress could decide what topics fall under the lower courts' jurisdiction, and thereby limit the Supreme Court’s jurisdiction as well. Congress could also decide that the Supreme court is made up of one justice or 100 justices.

Indeed, since the Supreme Court is nothing more than a legislature, why not make it one? Why not make SCOTUS a body of 50 “judges,” with the understanding that the Senate will not ratify any appointment which does not hold to the rule that each state gets a judge on the Court? Politics and ideology prevent this, but no Constitutional provision does. 

“But the court would just declare all those reforms to be unconstitutional,” some might say. That is true, although to that, we need only paraphrase the (possibly apocryphal) words of Andrew Jackson: “the Court has made its decision. Now let them enforce it.”

The Court need not worry, though, since its can nearly always count on the support of the President and the Congress precisely because the Court serves an essential role in augmenting the power of the other branches of the federal government.

The Solution: Mock the Court and Seek to Undermine It

Far too often we’re told to revere the Court simply because it is enshrined in the Constitution. Slavery is enshrined in the Constitution too. Need we revere that?

Even if the Supreme Court’s current form were actually Constitutional (which, again, it is not) it would still be a obsolete relic of a distant age. The idea that the Supreme Court could somehow address all the legal issues arising in a vast confederation was absurd from the outset, but all the more so now.Recognizing this, the authors of the Constitution created the Court as a body designed to address only conflicts between states, or between individuals of different states. In other words, it was supposed to head off conflicts that could lead to crises between state governments; it was designed to prevent wars between states. Whether or not your local confectioner should bake a cake for gay couples wasn’t exactly at the top of the agenda.

Even in the late 18th century though, the Court's status as a tiny elite club required the creation of the myth that the court was somehow "apolitical" which was buttressed by the creation of lifelong tenure for judges, no matter how senile or out of touch. Otherwise, prevailing ideas of representation in government at the time would have never allowed for a political institution like the Court to gain acceptance. This can be illustrated by the fact that in 1790, Congress was far more "democratic" than it is now, in the sense that there were far more representatives per person than today. Elections in many state governments were annual affairs, and legislative districts very small by today's standards, ensuring that your elected officials lived in close proximity to you and were physically accessible. 

In contrast to this, in 1790, there was one Supreme Court judge for every 600,000 Americans.  Today, there is one Supreme Court judge for every 35 million Americans. Not even the Soviet politburo managed that level of non-representation. 

On the other hand, there is no reason why a council of state governments could not be employed to address issues of conflicts between states, and the states (or even small portions thereof) — not nine political appointees — should perform the function of judicial review. This isn't the 18th century.  Having delegates from a variety of diverse and geographically varied states remain in constant contact and regularly meet is by no means a logistical impossibility. 

Even worse, many of the justices haven't had a real job in decades and have no idea how reality actually works. It's unlikely that the older members of the Court could even use Google to find a phone number on the internet, let alone understand the complexities of  how modern people run their businesses, raise their families, or function in every day life. The Court is largely the domain of geriatrics who are paid generously to make complex judgments about a world they rarely engage and can scarcely understand.

If Americans want a government that's more likely to leave them in peace, they should ignore the pleas to elect another politician who will just appoint another donor or political ally to the court. Instead, state and local governments should seek at every turn to ignore, nullify, and generally disregard the rulings of the Court when they run counter to local law and local institutions where — quite unlike the Supreme Court — average citizens have some actual influence over the political institutions that affect their lives.

 


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Yuan Extends Slide As China Weakens Fix By Most In 5 Weeks

It appears last night’s terrible trade data has reawoken the beats of Chinese devaluation. Amid offshore Yuan’s slide since China came back from vacation, PBOC fixed the Yuan 107 pips weaker against the USD – the biggest ‘devaluation’ since the first week of January. Chinese stocks are opening modestly lower (despite exuberant panic-buying in Japan at the open which spiked Nikkei 200 points).

The biggest Fix weakening since the first week of January…

 

as Offshore Yuan extends its post-holiday decline…

 

This has pushed CNH “cheap” once again to CNY as outflows rise and shorts rebuild positions.

 

Charts: Bloomberg


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“Venezuela’s CDS Is Now At The Same Level As Greece’s Three Months Before Its Default”

In addition to being a hyperinflating, socialist banana republic with a devastated economy Venezuela has another problem: debt,  of which it has some $70 billion with $9.5 billion due this year. It also has $15.4 billion in foreign reserves, of which two-thirds or around $10 billion, are held in gold bars, which as we said last week, “limits President Nicolas Maduro’s government’s ability to quickly mobilize hard currency for imports or debt service.”

Furthermore, with Venezuela oil prices in the low $20s, it is unclear if PDVSA can even cover its costs, let alone save up cash for debt repayment.

And while Venezuela recently enacted another gold swap this time with Deutsche Bank to allow it to monetize its gold, it remains to be seen if the local population which has so far taken all the punishments unleashed by the Maduro reign stoically, will stand idly by as the ruling regime quietly liquidates its last remaining assets.

But while Venezuela’s upcoming default is not exactly news to anyone, the question remains “when” will it happen. Yes, the time is drawing close, but how close?

Today we show one attempt at an answer, coming morbidly enough, from the very bank which will be holding Venezuela’s gold as part of the country’s gold swap – Deutsche Bank.

This is what DB said:

Keep an eye on EM credit: Venezuela’s CDS spread has risen above 9,500bps, like Greece’s in 2011 and our EM economists worry that a “Venezuela bond default has moved closer”. Venezuela has only about $70bn of external debt, according to the BIS, but a default would increase pressure on other commodity exporters, further adding to the general market stress

The bottom line: “Venezuela’s CDS spread is now at the same level as Greece’s three months before its default” which is the strongest hint yet on how long the troubled socialist paradise has left.

Visually:

 

So is the reason why Deutsche Bank rushed to do Venezuela’s gold swap, something which would lead to the German bank almost certainly ending up in possession of its physical gold in case of a sovereign bankruptcy, the result of this prediction for a T-minus 90 days before Venezuela’s default? Find out some time in mid May.

As for another important tangent, if Venezuela indeed defaults, the question then becomes: what will happen to its oil production – will the successor (military) regime pump more or less. That is a question the oil bulls (and bears) better answer quick.


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Foreign Officials Sell A Record $48 Billion In U.S. Treasurys In December

There has been much speculation whether foreign official institutions (central banks, SWFs, reserve managers and so on) are selling Treasurys or equities, or both as part of the Quantitative Tightening phenomenon.

Moments ago, courtesy of the latest TIC data we have an answer: based on the monthly flow report breaking down Treasury transactions between foreign official and private entities, in December the far more important, former, group sold $48.1 billion in US Treasurys: the highest single monthly outflow on record.

 

This was partially offset by a $12.2 billion purchase by Private buyers, however as the chart below shows, on an LTM basis, December saw a total of $20.3 billion in selling, and was the third consecutive month of net selling by foreigners. This was the first such occurrence in 15 years.

 

Finally, for all those curious what China is doing with its US Treasury holdings, using the TIC’s stock data, we find that between China and its offshore trading proxy “Belgium”, China dumped another $41 billion in TSYs, a move which continues to track the decline in its official reserve holdings almost TIC for TIC, pardon the pun.


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Known Drunk Driver-Hating Officer Who Blatantly Shot a Drunk Driver for No Apparent Reason Loses Job

I reported last year about the curious case of Officer Patrick Feaster, a California policeman with a loud public record of being really peeved with drunk drivers, who came upon and casually shot Andrew Thomas after Thomas flipped his truck in a drunk driving incident that killed Thomas’ wife.

Thomas was struggling to crawl out the window of his truck vertically when Feaster shot him. Feaster neglected to report to dispatch that anyone had been shot, merely referring to a man who (Feater had just shot, and thus., but he didn’t mention any of that) “refuses to get out” of the truck.

As I reported then, Feaster was at first found not worthy of charges in the incident by Butte County District Attorney Mike Ramsey on the curious grounds that, as I summed it up, the:

shooting seemed to [Ramsey] maybe not intentional and thus not criminally negligent. (It seemed pretty intentional to me, but those judging police see with eyes suffused with a soft gelscreen of bitter, bitter mercy.) Because [Feaster] didn’t shoot him twice, according to Ramsey, that proves merely that Feaster is the kind of officer who pulls out his weapon, finger on the trigger, aims it at someone who represents no conceivable threat to himself or anyone else, and shoots him without meaning to, and that apparently is just fine and deserves no criminal punishment.

Why didn’t he tell anyone he’d shot him? He was in shock and not even actually sure he’d shot him!

So, reckless to the point of possible actual insanity. That’s fine in a cop. Certainly not worthy of charges.

Thomas died of his injuries shortly after my initial post.

Last week Paradise Post reported that Feaster has finally been relieved of his job, although Paradise Police Chief Gabriela Tazzari-Dineen “could not disclose why Feaster is no longer with the department.” 

After Thomas died, D.A. Ramsey reconsidered his initial decision not to prosecute at all, and that investigation, Ramsey now tells the Paradise Post:

 hinges on Thomas’ autopsy report. One of the things Ramsey wanted an opinion on was whether immediate medical attention could have saved Thomas’ life. Feaster did not acknowledge to superior officers that he had shot Thomas until 11 minutes after the shooting.

The video of the incident, highly disturbing, can be found at this Action News Now story.

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