At Least 5 Dead After Massive Explosion In Turkish Capital, Military Dormitory Targeted

With Turkey on the brink of going to war with Russia and, implicitly, Iran, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is looking for an excuse to invade Syria. 

The rebels Turkey and Saudi Arabia back are staging what amounts to a last stand at Aleppo and the Kurdish YPG is moving to cut the Azaz corridor, which would effectively mean that Turkey has no way of resupplying the insurgency.

For the past five days, Ankara has been shelling the YPG in a futile attempt to stop their advance. 

The only thing that can save the rebellion against Bashar al-Assad is an outright ground operation by the rebels’ Sunni benefactors, including Turkey. 

All Erdogan needs is a pretext and he may have just gotten one as reports indicate there’s been a huge explosion in Ankara near parliament and at least 5 people are dead.

Early indications are that military barracks were targeted. A “large number of casulaties” are rumored. Expect this to be pinned on either ISIS or the PKK. If it’s the latter, Ankara will once again claim that the group is working in concert with the YPG and that will be all the evidence Erdogan needs to march across the border.

  • EXPLOSION REPORTED IN TURKISH CAPITAL ANKARA, AHABER SAYS
  • ANKARA EXPLOSION OCCURRED NEAR MILITARY RESIDENCES: OFFICIAL
  • 5 PEOPLE KILLED IN ANKARA BLAST: T24 CITES ANKARA GOVERNOR
  • ANKARA BLAST WAS SUSPECTED CAR BOMB: CNN-TURK CITES GOVERNOR


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1XxSnND Tyler Durden

“Highly Dangerous” Radioactive Material Stolen In Iraq, “Could Be Used For ISIS Dirty Bomb”

Just when it seemed that the Syria’s proxy war would remain confined within the “comfortable” realm of conventional weaponry, moments ago Reuters gave the first hint of a potential, and radioactive escalation, when it reported that Iraq is searching for “highly dangerous” radioactive material stolen last year, according to an environment ministry document and seven security, environmental and provincial officials. The loss is significant because in already setting the next steps of the narrative, Reuters reports that the same officials “fear it could be used as a weapon if acquired by Islamic State.“

It is unclear why a “highly dangerous” radioactive substance was located in Iraq, but as Reuters adds, the material, stored in a protective case the size of a laptop computer, went missing in November from a storage facility near the southern city of Basra belonging to U.S. oilfield services company Weatherford, the document obtained by Reuters showed and officials confirmed (incidentally this is the same Weatherford which two weeks ago fired 15% of its employees after warning of “lower for longer” oil prices).

Reuters attempts to probe further were promptly contained: a spokesman for Iraq’s environment ministry said he could not discuss the issue, citing national security concerns. A Weatherford spokesman in Iraq declined to comment, and the company’s Houston headquarters did not respond to repeated requests for comment.

More details on the theft from Reuters:

The material, which uses gamma rays to test flaws in materials used for oil and gas pipelines in a process called industrial gamma radiography, is owned by Istanbul-based SGS Turkey, according to the document and officials.

 

An SGS official in Iraq declined to comment and referred Reuters to its Turkish headquarters, which did not respond to phone calls.

 

The document, dated Nov. 30 and addressed to the ministry’s Centre for Prevention of Radiation, describes “the theft of a highly dangerous radioactive source of Ir-192 with highly radioactive activity belonging to SGS from a depot belonging to Weatherford in the Rafidhia area of Basra province“.

 

A senior environment ministry official based in Basra, who declined to be named as he is not authorized to speak publicly, told Reuters the device contained up to 10 grams (0.35 ounces) of Ir-192 “capsules”, a radioactive isotope of iridium also used to treat cancer.

 

The material is classed as a Category 2 radioactive source by the International Atomic Energy Agency, meaning if not managed properly it could cause permanent injury to a person in close proximity to it for minutes or hours, and could be fatal to someone exposed for a period of hours to days.

Reuters adds that the ministry document said it posed a risk of bodily and environmental harm as well as a national security threat.

And with this highly radioactive substance stolen, concerns arise that it may have fallen in the hands of ISIS, from where it could promptly be used to make a dirty bomb.

According to Reuters, large quantities of Ir-192 have gone missing before in the United States, Britain and other countries, stoking fears among security officials that it could be used to make a dirty bomb.

“We are afraid the radioactive element will fall into the hands of Daesh,” Reuters cited a senior security official with knowledge of the theft, using an Arabic acronym for Islamic State.

 

“They could simply attach it to explosives to make a dirty bomb,” said the official, who works at the interior ministry and spoke on condition of anonymity as he is also not authorized to speak publicly.

For now, there has been no indication the material had come into the possession of Islamic State, which seized territory in Iraq and Syria in 2014 but does not control areas near Basra. However, in case of a dirty bomb going off somewhere on the Syria-Turkey border, in close proximity to a battalion of Russian solders, well…

Attempts to contain a potential panic appears somewhat muted: the security official, based in Baghdad, told Reuters there were no immediate suspects for the theft. But the official said the initial investigation suggested the perpetrators had specific knowledge of the material and the facility: “No broken locks, no smashed doors and no evidence of forced entry,” he said.

Almost as if it wasn’t actually “stolen.”

Meanwhile, everyone is searing for the deadly substance: “a spokesman for Basra operations command, responsible for security in Basra province, said army, police and intelligence forces were working “day and night” to locate the material. The army and police have responsibility for security in the country’s south, where Iranian-backed Shi’ite militias and criminal gangs also operate.”

Reuters also notes that ISIS does not actually have to make a dirty bomb with the material: besides the risk of a dirty bomb, the radioactive material could cause harm simply by being left exposed in a public place for several days, said David Albright, a physicist and president of the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security.

The senior environmental official said authorities were worried that whoever stole the material would mishandle it, leading to radioactive pollution of “catastrophic proportions”.

A second senior environment ministry official, also based in Basra, said counter-radiation teams had begun inspecting oil sites, scrap yards and border crossings to locate the device after an emergency task force raised the alarm on Nov. 13.

Two Basra provincial government officials said they were directed on Nov. 25 to coordinate with local hospitals. “We instructed hospitals in Basra to be alert to any burn cases caused by radioactivity and inform security forces immediately,” said one.

Something tells us any burn cases will not afflict local Iraqis; however if we were Russian soliders in Syria or Iraq’s vicinity, we would be concerned.

The final word belongs to the abovementioned David Albright who said that “if they left it in some crowded place, that would be more of the risk. If they kept it together but without shielding,” he said. “Certainly it’s not insignificant. You could cause some panic with this. They would want to get this back.“

Unless causing some panic, and a panicked counterresponse, is precisely the intention.


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1mHBFOx Tyler Durden

WTI Crude Soars To $31 – Erases All “Production Freeze” Disappointment Losses

So let’s get this straight. Russia and OPEC ‘agree’ to consider (not actually act upon) “freezing” production levels (at current record high levels) and the market plunges amid disappointment over no cuts. And today WTI spikes and erases all those losses as Iran supports the “freeze” plan but will not cut its own production plans…

As Reuters reports,

Iran said on Wednesday it would resist any plan to restrain its oil output as fellow OPEC ministers tried to persuade the country to join the first global oil pact in 15 years.

 

Talks in Tehran between Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh and his counterparts from Iraq, Qatar and Venezuela lasted for nearly three hours. Visiting ministers left without making comment.

 

“Asking Iran to freeze its oil production level is illogical … when Iran was under sanctions, some countries raised their output and they caused the drop in oil prices.” Iran’s OPEC envoy, Mehdi Asali, was quoted as saying by the Shargh daily newspaper on Wednesday.

“How can they expect Iran to cooperate now and pay the price?” he said. “We have repeatedly said that Iran will increase its crude output until reaching the pre-sanctions production level.”

And so – Crude rallies??!!

 

What is really diving all this craziness is that it is OPEX in Crude futures today and there are major pins around $31, $30, and $28.



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/20ZluPD Tyler Durden

How The Pros Do It: Tepper Added 75% To Longs After Saying “Now A Good Time To Take Money Off The Table”

Tepper did it again.

Recall that exactly one year ago, we wrote about David Tepper’s latest TV appearance on BBG TV, when we reported that “David Tepper Dumps 40% Of US Equity Exposure Despite Claiming “Stocks Inexpensive” in which we said the following:

At the start of Q4 2014, Appaloosa’s David Tepper made a series of statements – dismissing Bill Gross as irrelevant (nope – turmoil caused by PIMCO unwinds roiled credit markets), calling the end of the bond bull market (nope – yields went on make lower and lower lows), and finally proclaiming that stocks were inexpensive and multiples not high. So, one wonders, if stocks were inexpensive and multiples not high, why did Appaloosa dump 40% of its US equity exposure in that quarter (only to end the quarter with even more exuberance proclaiming that stocks could rise another 10% in 2015)? It appears that when David Tepper says “buy”, he means “buy… from me.”

Fast forward several months when just after the August market crash which sent the S&P to its first date with 1,812, Tepper was again on CNBC and made a series of bearish prognostication:

“I have problems with earnings growth [and] problems with multiples,” he said. “So I can’t really call myself a bull [near-term].”

 

Acknowledging he was not as definitive as usual, he said he’s “not loving it,” but if stocks were to fall 20 percent or so he’d be a buyer. He added that he still believes the market will go higher in the long term.

He added that “it might be a good time to take money off the table.”

That’s what he said. What did he do?

According to his latest 13F as the market was surging in the last quarter of 2015, Tepper was busy buying. So busy in fact, that he took his total long notional exposure as disclosed in Appaloosa’s 13-F from a modest $2.9BN as of September, to $5 billion as of the end of the year, an increase of 75%, in the process adding 40% to his longs.  Needless to say, stocks were not “dropping 20%”, in fact quite the opposite – they were surging into the year end Santa Rally.

 

To be sure, we don’t know what Tepper was doing with the short side of his book, as well as his credit/CDS exposure, but one thing is clear: when it comes to his longs, as Tepper was urging CNBC’s viewers to take money of the table, he was waving much of it in.

As a reminder, this is a man whose one bullish (or bearish) word on financial TV could “dramatically alter market sentiment.”

And that’s why David Tepper is a billionaire.


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1Q1y8qb Tyler Durden

If Zero Interest Rates Fixed What’s Broken, We’d Be In Paradise

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

Rather than fix what's broken with the real economy, ZIRP/NIRP has added problems that only collapse can solve.

The fundamental premise of global central bank policy is simple: whatever's broken in the economy can be fixed with zero interest rates (ZIRP). And the linear extension of this premise is equally simple: if ZIRP hasn't fixed what's broken, then negative interest rates (NIRP) will.

Unfortunately, this simplistic policy has run aground on the shoals of reality: if zero or negative interest rates actually fixed what's broken in the economy, we'd all be living in Paradise after seven years of zero interest rates.

The truth that cannot be spoken is that zero interest rates (ZIRP) and negative interest rates (NIRP) cannot fix what's broken–rather, they have added monumental quantities of risk that have dragged the global financial system down to crush depth:

Crush depth, officially called collapse depth, is the submerged depth at which a submarine's hull will collapse due to pressure. This is normally calculated; however, it is not always accurate.

Indeed, the risk that has been generated by ZIRP and NIRP cannot be calculated with any accuracy. The sources of risk arising from NIRP are well-known:

1. Zero interest rates force investors and money managers to chase yield, i.e. seek a positive return on their capital. In a world dominated by central bank ZIRP/NIRP, this requires taking on higher risk, as higher yields are a direct consequence of higher risk.

The problem is that the risk and the higher yield are asymmetric: to earn a 4% return, investors could be taking on risks an order of magnitude higher than the yield.

2. To generate fees in a ZIRP/NIRP world, lenders must loan vast sums to marginal borrowers–borrowers who would not qualify for loans in more prudent times.

This forces lenders to either forego income from lending or take on enormous risks in lending to marginal borrowers.

3. The income once earned by conventional savers has been completely destroyed by ZIRP/NIRP, depriving the economy of a key income stream.

Please consider this chart of the Fed Funds Rate and tell me precisely what's been fixed by seven years of zero interest rates:

Bank credit soared. If our only problem was a dearth of new bank lending, we'd be in Paradise now. Alas, we're not:

The reality is that zero interest rates have only brought debt-based consumption forward, expanded lending to marginal/high-risk borrowers and forced capital into dark caverns of risk from which there is no orderly escape.

What's the crush depth of all this impaired debt and risky credit? Nobody knows. Rather than fix what's broken with the real economy, ZIRP/NIRP has added problems that only collapse can solve.

If zero or negative interest rates actually fixed what's broken in the economy, we'd all be in Paradise now. Instead, we're in a sinking submarine awaiting the implosion of predatory excesses. In other words, a financial Hell.


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1R8gvE6 Tyler Durden

The Gold Spoofer Is Back

Overnight action saw gold jerked lower as Europe opened and Asia closed. Thanks to Nanex, we now see 'how' this occurred as the "gold spoofer" has returned. Once the spoofer disappeared, gold has rallied back up to the overnight highs… rigged?

75 gold futures contracts used to "spoof" prices lower…

Via Nanex

And once the spoofer left the building…

 

It seems $1200 is the line in the sand once again.


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1R8gvnv Tyler Durden

Sheriff Wonders Whether Beyonce’s Super Bowl Show Inspired Violence Against Police

Someone fired several shots at the home of a sheriff in Tennessee Monday night. Rutherford County Sheriff Robert Arnold held a press conference Tuesday morning, and openly wondered whether Beyonce’s Super Bowl halftime show might have had something to do with it.

“We all know, as soon as you put your uniform on, you’re a target,” Arnold said, according to The Daily News Journal. “You make people mad when you’re just doing your job.”

According to The Daily News Journal, Arnold said at the press conference he wondered whether the shots were inspired by the Super Bowl half-time show. “You know, Beyonce’s video.”

By yesterday afternoon, the sheriff was seeking to clarify his comments, releasing a statement that referred to the string of shootings of police officers in the week and a half since the Super Bowl. “My comments are an observation of the violence that has occurred but in no way is meant to offend anyone.”

Beyonce’s Super Bowl halftime show featured a performance of the song “Formation” and included tributes to the Black Panthers, an organization founded in the Bay Area (where the Super Bowl was held this year) 50 years ago, Malcolm X, and Black Lives Matter.

A similar string of shootings last summer led to renewed hysteria about a “war on cops.” One of those shootings ended up being a suicide. A large-scale manhunt was launched after the death of Joseph Gliniewicz, who committed suicide in a way as to make it appear to be a killing. 2015 ended up being one of the safest years on records for cops. There’s not enough of a sample yet this year to assume anything different. The highest number of police killings in recent years came in 2007—there was no police reform movement to blame for the uptick back then.

As Jack Hunter wrote at Rare, much of the white dread over Beyonce’s Super Bowl performance (and later Lamar Kendrick’s Grammy performance) comes from a lack of understanding that black people might have a distinct American experience.

“These are African American artists who share the same history we all do, but also their own distinct history as black Americans—including their own heroes, tragedies and complex experience that won’t always mirror everyone else’s,” Hunter wrote. “There’s nothing wrong with that.”

There is something wrong with blaming violent acts on speech, whether it comes from the left or the right, from civilian politicians or police officials.

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/1SSzu9e
via IFTTT

Crude Confused – WTI Rallies As Iran ‘Supports’ OPEC Freeze But Won’t Cut Production

The algos are happy. Headlines proclaim Iran “supports” the Doha proposal to “freeze” oil production levels (at record levels) and oil spikes. However, what they failed to grasp was Iran’s lack of commitment to actual production levels… i.e. Iran fully supports production cuts for everyone else… but will not freeze its own production.

 



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1Q1sO6a Tyler Durden

China Puts Missiles On Disputed Islands, Says West Should Ignore Them, Focus On Lighthouses

China may not have troops or planes in Syria but that doesn’t mean it won’t be a part of World War III.

Even as the eyes of the world are now trained squarely on the Mid-East where the Russian and Iranian assault on Aleppo is set to draw the Saudis and the Turks into a ground war, the dispute over a tiny chain of islands in the South China Sea is still simmering.

Beijing has built some 3,000 acres of new sovereign territory atop reefs in the Spratlys, in what is now a long-running effort to expand the country’s maritime capabilities in waters China claims as its own.

The world began to take notice early last year and before you knew it, Washington’s regional allies were exceptionally upset with China’s “sandcastle” construction, which some view as an illegitimate attempt to militarize the island chain at the expense of peace and stability.

For its part, China says it has every right to do as it pleases in the Spratlys and in fact, at least one Chinese official has said that the PLA would be well within its rights to forcibly expel any country who seeks to occupy islands China doesn’t control.

Tensions escalated in May when China threatened a Poseidon spy plane with a CNN crew aboard and the situation was exacerbated further in October when the US finally “went there” and sent a warship to the islands in what the US dubbed a “freedom of navigation” exercise.

Through it all, China has indicated that it may establish what amounts to a no-fly zone over the islands and now, it appears the PLA is ready to make good on that threat because as Fox News first reported (yes, that’s right, Fox News somehow managed to get an exclusive) last night, China has deployed surface-to-air missile system on Woody Island.

“The imagery from ImageSat International (ISI) shows two batteries of eight surface-to-air missile launchers as well as a radar system on Woody Island, part of the Paracel Island chain in the South China Sea,” Fox said, adding that “the missiles arrived over the past week [as] the beach on the island was empty on Feb. 3, but the missiles were visible by Feb. 14.”

“A U.S. official confirmed the accuracy of the photos,” Fox goes on to claim. “The official said the imagery viewed appears to show the HQ-9 air defense system, which closely resembles Russia’s S-300 missile system [and] has a range of 125 miles.”

Here are the images:

“Asked about the missiles at a briefing in Beijing, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that limited self-defense facilities on Woody Island are consistent with China’s self-protection policies and international law,” Bloomberg reports. “He described the report as Western media hype.” He also said the West should focus more on the lighthouses China has built on the islands which should help to protect the $5 trillion in shipping that moves through the region each year.

Right. It’s all “Western media hype.” This is just the PLA putting air defense systems in place on islands that China is definitely not militarizing. Nothing to see here, move along…

“This calls into direct question the seriousness of President Xi’s statement [that China doesn’t seek to militarize The South China Sea],” U.S. Pacific Command chief Harry Harris said. 

Yes, it most certainly does and now that the HQ-9s are in place, you can expect to see more incidents like the one recorded below. 


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1QlPLNh Tyler Durden