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Well that escalated quickly. Having broken above $900 yesterday to new record highs (and a 100% gain in a week), the crypto currency is not looking back now. On what is higher than average volume this morning, Bitcoin just broke above the magic $1000 level for the first time (at $1025). Meanwhile, the BTC China “arb’d” rate is around $950 for those playing at home; and Litecoin has just topped $26 (from $4 a week ago!).

 

Bitcoin…

 

 

Litecoin…

 

 

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/kzA-bORRB4c/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Those who were looking at the JPY monkeyhammering at 9:42 spotted the exact moment the November Chicago PMI number was released early to MarketNews subscribers, and also knew precisely that the number would be a beat. Sure enough, at 9:45 when the number was released for broad distribution, this was confirmed because while the headline number dropped from last month’s epic 65.9 to 63.0, it was still a sizable beat of expectations of 63.0, with the Employment number rising from 57.7 to 60.9 the highest since October 2011. However, one look at the internals shows that not all was well. In fact, with New Orders dropping from 74.3 to 68.8, production sliding from 71 to 64.3 and backlogs down from 61.0 to 59.8, the forward looking metrics all dipped so it was all up to that old faithful channel stuffer – Inventories – to fill the gap. And fill the gap it did, by soaring from 48.0 to a whopping 61.1, the highest number since September 2006!

Just as the Durable Goods goods number suggested, the inventory buildup is the only thing that is keeping manufacturers busy. Selling said inventory at a profit (especially with Prices Paid surging from 56.7 to 63.7), or investing in future production capacity, not so much.

 

And the disconnect between forward indicators and the inventory surge:

The full report:

The November Chicago Business Barometer softened to 63.0 after October’s sharp rise to a 31-month high of 65.9. November’s slight correction came amid mild declines in New Orders, Production and Order Backlogs after double digit gains in the prior month.

 

Despite November’s weakening, the Barometer remained well above 60 for the second month, pushing the three month moving average to the highest level since November 2011.

 

Chicago area purchasers continued to report healthy expansion in New Orders and Order Backlogs, albeit at a slower rate, as well as a lengthening in Supplier Delivery Times.

 

Employment was up for the second consecutive month, reaching the highest level since October 2011, and the first time above 60 since February 2012.

 

Inventories exploded 13.1 points to 61.1, moving out of contraction for the first time since February and posting the highest reading since September 2006. With expectations for higher demand, firms underwent a major stock rebuild.

 

Commenting on the MNI Chicago Report, Philip Uglow, Chief Economist at MNI Indicators said, “The Barometer might be down in November, but this was another impressive month with companies reporting firm growth”.

 

“Having kept inventories lean for so long, a pick-up in demand has led to a sharp rise in stock building among the companies in our panel. And to handle the latest production and new orders boost, companies are hiring at the fastest pace for two years,” he added.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/MIanuBL3tQw/story01.htm Tyler Durden

While shoppers will perceive the discounts on Black Friday as ‘saving’ them fortunes, the cost of the 2013 Thanksgiving Day dinner may be the most expensive ever. As the gorging commences, despite an entirely benign inflation in the eyes of the Federal Reserve, the prices of everything from chocolate chip cookies to ice cream are on the rise. But it is the centerpiece of the meal that is weighing on pocket-books. As Bloomberg’s Michael McDonough notes, Americans are paying the most for whole frozen turkeys since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began publishing data on the series in 1980.

 

 

The U.S. city average price per pound for frozen turkeys climbed to $1.819 in September, up from $1.433 at the end of last year and $1.621 a year prior. September’s price implies an average 15 pound Thanksgiving turkey will cost Americans $27.29 this year, compared to less than $25 dollars last year.

Frozen turkey prices have risen substantially during the past decade, probably due to rising input costs. Turkey prices averaged just $1.071 per pound between 2000 and 2004, compared to $1.579 per pound since 2010. This price increase is nearly double the rise in overall inflation during the same period. Corn prices, a major source of turkey feed, rose by nearly 200 percent during the same period helping boost the cost of the final product.

There is a silver linig though – potentially…

It may come as some relief for turkey farmers that as prices continue rising, corn prices have plummeted about 50 percent since September 2012.

Source: Bloomberg’s Michael McDonough (@MMcDonough)

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/kpVasvdjY0s/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,250.75, EUR 919.80 and GBP 767.99 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,250.75, EUR 923.88 and GBP 773.69 per ounce.

Gold fell $6.70 or 0.54% yesterday, closing at $1,242.10/oz. Silver slid $0.17 or 0.85% closing at $19.85/oz. Platinum fell $16.94 or 1.2% to $1,367.30/oz, while palladium dropped $3.25 or 0.5% to $715.47/oz.

Gold is higher today in London. There is speculation that lower prices, which fell to a four-month low, will lead to increased physical demand. Prices fell to $1,225.55/oz on Monday after another massive sell order led to trading being suspended for 20 seconds for the third time in less than a week. $1,225.55/oz was the lowest since July 8.

S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Home Price Index Not Seasonally Adjusted

The German regulator has joined the British Financial Regulator and is opening up an examination of the gold and silver price ‘setting’ at banks.

The German financial markets regulator is scrutinizing gold and silver price setting operations at individual banks alongside other benchmark processes including Libor and Euribor, Bafin spokesman Ben Fischer told media. Bafin declined to elaborate on the status of the investigation or the banks involved.

Despite the very poor sentiment after recent price falls, gold’s fundamentals are actually quite sound.

Global physical demand is set to be very high again this year and may even reach a new record, despite the 25% price fall.

This is especially the case, as Chinese demand is set to be a new record this year despite the recent slight decline in demand. China’s net imports of gold from Hong Kong alone in October reached the second-highest level on record last month. This does not include direct imports from Australia, Africa, Vietnam and other countries.

Indeed, Chinese demand this year looks set to be a new record for the highest gold demand from one country in one year ever. It is important to look at the aggregate annual demand figures rather than the ebb and flows of weekly and monthly data which can mislead.

Momentum and technical traders are dominant at the moment and with the short term trend down, gold may incur further losses in the short term.

However, the smart money is gradually accumulating on the dips. Dollar cost averaging remains prudent for investors who wish to get exposure to bullion but are concerned about further price falls.

Gold in US Dollars – 5 Year

U.S. borrowers are increasingly missing payments on home equity lines of credit they took out during the housing bubble, a trend that could deal another blow to the country’s biggest banks according to Reuters Insight.

It would likely also deal another blow to the U.S. property market and the fragile U.S. economy.

Bank of America, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo appear to be the most exposed – meaning that either taxpayers will again be asked to bail out banks or more likely the new bail-in regime will confiscate cash from depositors.

From Reuters:
The loans are a problem now because an increasing number are hitting their 10-year anniversary, at which point borrowers usually must start paying down the principal on the loans as well as the interest they had been paying all along.

More than $221 billion of these loans at the largest banks will hit this mark over the next four years, about 40 percent of the home equity lines of credit now outstanding.

For a typical consumer, that shift can translate to their monthly payment more than tripling, a particular burden for the subprime borrowers that often took out these loans. And payments will rise further when the Federal Reserve starts to hike rates, because the loans usually carry floating interest rates.

At a conference last month in Washington, DC, Amy Crews Cutts, the chief economist at consumer credit agency Equifax, told mortgage bankers that an increase in tens of thousands of homeowners’ monthly payments on these home equity lines is a pending “wave of disaster”.
In terms of loan losses, “What we’ve seen so far is the tip of the iceberg. It’s relatively low in relation to what’s coming,” Equifax’s Crews Cuts said.

UK Nationwide House Price Index – 1971 – Today

There are concerns about Britain’s property market too and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) warned of a UK property bubble last week.

The Paris-based group said, in its semi-annual Economic Outlook, that it was urgent to continue to relax the barriers to housing supply to prevent overheating in the property market. It ignored the fact that the nascent new bubble is in a large part due to near zero percent interest rates leading to renewed property speculation by buy to let investors.

The UK government’s Help to Buy program that aids buyers with smaller deposits has been criticized by the International Monetary Fund and politicians for potentially stoking a property bubble as it boosts demand.

Given the very fragile recovery, despite near zero percent interest rates in the UK and the U.S. and the uncertain international backdrop, property prices in both countries look vulnerable.

Click Gold News For This Week’s Breaking Gold And Silver News
Click Gold and Silver Commentary For This Week’s Leading Gold, Silver Opinion
Like Our YouTube Page For The Latest Insights, Documentaries and Interviews
Like Our Facebook Page For Interesting Insights, Blogs, Prizes and Special Offers 

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/OZXJNhnQ98k/story01.htm GoldCore

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,250.75, EUR 919.80 and GBP 767.99 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,250.75, EUR 923.88 and GBP 773.69 per ounce.

Gold fell $6.70 or 0.54% yesterday, closing at $1,242.10/oz. Silver slid $0.17 or 0.85% closing at $19.85/oz. Platinum fell $16.94 or 1.2% to $1,367.30/oz, while palladium dropped $3.25 or 0.5% to $715.47/oz.

Gold is higher today in London. There is speculation that lower prices, which fell to a four-month low, will lead to increased physical demand. Prices fell to $1,225.55/oz on Monday after another massive sell order led to trading being suspended for 20 seconds for the third time in less than a week. $1,225.55/oz was the lowest since July 8.

S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Home Price Index Not Seasonally Adjusted

The German regulator has joined the British Financial Regulator and is opening up an examination of the gold and silver price ‘setting’ at banks.

The German financial markets regulator is scrutinizing gold and silver price setting operations at individual banks alongside other benchmark processes including Libor and Euribor, Bafin spokesman Ben Fischer told media. Bafin declined to elaborate on the status of the investigation or the banks involved.

Despite the very poor sentiment after recent price falls, gold’s fundamentals are actually quite sound.

Global physical demand is set to be very high again this year and may even reach a new record, despite the 25% price fall.

This is especially the case, as Chinese demand is set to be a new record this year despite the recent slight decline in demand. China’s net imports of gold from Hong Kong alone in October reached the second-highest level on record last month. This does not include direct imports from Australia, Africa, Vietnam and other countries.

Indeed, Chinese demand this year looks set to be a new record for the highest gold demand from one country in one year ever. It is important to look at the aggregate annual demand figures rather than the ebb and flows of weekly and monthly data which can mislead.

Momentum and technical traders are dominant at the moment and with the short term trend down, gold may incur further losses in the short term.

However, the smart money is gradually accumulating on the dips. Dollar cost averaging remains prudent for investors who wish to get exposure to bullion but are concerned about further price falls.

Gold in US Dollars – 5 Year

U.S. borrowers are increasingly missing payments on home equity lines of credit they took out during the housing bubble, a trend that could deal another blow to the country’s biggest banks according to Reuters Insight.

It would likely also deal another blow to the U.S. property market and the fragile U.S. economy.

Bank of America, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo appear to be the most exposed – meaning that either taxpayers will again be asked to bail out banks or more likely the new bail-in regime will confiscate cash from depositors.

From Reuters:
The loans are a problem now because an increasing number are hitting their 10-year anniversary, at which point borrowers usually must start paying down the principal on the loans as well as the interest they had been paying all along.

More than $221 billion of these loans at the largest banks will hit this mark over the next four years, about 40 percent of the home equity lines of credit now outstanding.

For a typical consumer, that shift can translate to their monthly payment more than tripling, a particular burden for the subprime borrowers that often took out these loans. And payments will rise further when the Federal Reserve starts to hike rates, because the loans usually carry floating interest rates.

At a conference last month in Washington, DC, Amy Crews Cutts, the chief economist at consumer credit agency Equifax, told mortgage bankers that an increase in tens of thousands of homeowners’ monthly payments on these home equity lines is a pending “wave of disaster”.
In terms of loan losses, “What we’ve seen so far is the tip of the iceberg. It’s relatively low in relation to what’s coming,” Equifax’s Crews Cuts said.

UK Nationwide House Price Index – 1971 – Today

There are concerns about Britain’s property market too and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) warned of a UK property bubble last week.

The Paris-based group said, in its semi-annual Economic Outlook, that it was urgent to continue to relax the barriers to housing supply to prevent overheating in the property market. It ignored the fact that the nascent new bubble is in a large part due to near zero percent interest rates leading to renewed property speculation by buy to let investors.

The UK government’s Help to Buy program that aids buyers with smaller deposits has been criticized by the International Monetary Fund and politicians for potentially stoking a property bubble as it boosts demand.

Given the very fragile recovery, despite near zero percent interest rates in the UK and the U.S. and the uncertain international backdrop, property prices in both countries look vulnerable.

Click Gold News For This Week’s Breaking Gold And Silver News
Click Gold and Silver Commentary For This Week’s Leading Gold, Silver Opinion
Like Our YouTube Page For The Latest Insights, Documentaries and Interviews
Like Our Facebook Page For Interesting Insights, Blogs, Prizes and Special Offers 

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/wAIZB5_3-uw/story01.htm GoldCore