Bill Ackman's "Seven Hallmarks Of A Pyramid Scheme" Herbalife Takedown

We are used to hedge fund managers blindly making up “facts” to hide the reality that nothing else matters (most definitely not fundamentals) except the Fed’s balance sheet (in order to defend his 2-and-20 sapping performance). So it is ironic that Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman has added to his previous 342-slide PowerPoint presentation with the following 61 pages of his reality in the hope that market technicals (i.e. the weight of activist longs and shrinking float) and momentum will give way to his view that ‘these’ Herbalife’s fundamentals will eventually win. Good luck with that…

 

Here are his 7 Hallmarks of a Pyramid Scheme and the full Herbalife’s “Robin Hood In Reverse” presentation is found here:


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/5AEN-oaluaU/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Glutathione: Boost Your Health and Help Protect Yourself From Radiation

Glutathione is your body’s “master antioxidant”.

Every cell of your body contains glutathione. And glutathione makes any other antioxidant which you ingest more effective.

Low glutathione levels are associated with serious diseases such as cancer, Aids and diabetes.

As we age, our glutathione levels decline. Indeed, low glutathione levels may be associated with aging quickly:

Glutathione is also central to many other basic mechanisms in our body, such as immune response, blood transport and protein synthesis:

Numerous studies have shown that glutathione can help protect cells against radiation damage, including studies published in the following journals:

This is not entirely surprising, given that it’s well-documented that all antioxidants help to protect against damage from radiation.   Specifically, one of the main ways in which low-level ionizing radiation damages our bodies is by the creation of free radicals. (This 2-minute BBC video shows how damaging free radicals can be to your health.)

Columbia University explains the damaging effects of low-level radiation through free radical creation:

Some radiation experts argue that the creation of a lot of free radical creation is the most dangerous mechanism of low level ionizing radiation:

During exposure to low-level doses (LLD) of ionizing radiation (IR), the most of harmful effects are produced indirectly, through radiolysis of water and formation of reactive oxygen species (ROS). The antioxidant enzymes – superoxide dismutase (SOD): manganese SOD (MnSOD) and copper-zinc SOD (CuZnSOD), as well as glutathione (GSH), are the most important intracellular antioxidants in the metabolism of ROS. Overproduction of ROS challenges antioxidant enzymes.

We’ve previously told you how to get past the hype to find the foods that are highest in antioxidants.

But glutathione – as the “master antioxidant”, which is in every cell of your body – is probably the most important one to focus on.

Dr. Jimmy Gutman – a practicing physician, former Undergraduate Director and Residency Training Director of Emergency Medicine at McGill University in Montreal, Quebec, who has served on the Board of Directors of the Canadian Association of Emergency Physicians – claims:

Raising glutathione levels protects cells from damage from the most dangerous of free radicals, the hydroxyl-radical, is released when ionizing radiation hits us.

Note also that exposure to radiation depletes glutathione in your body.   You basically use up glutathione neutralizing the free radicals created by radiation. So it is important to keep your glutathione levels up when you are exposed to radiation.

How Can We Boost Glutathione Levels?

Despite the hype from the supplement industry, glutathione supplements don’t do anything.  Specifically, our stomach acid destroys glutathione … so you’ll be throwing money away if you buy supplemenets.

But you can eat foods that are high in the precursors to glutathione … and your body will use them to make more glutathione.

Specifically, 3 amino acides – cysteine, glycine and glutamate – are the precursors to glutathione production.

Protein-rich foods tends to be high in all 3. But heating or pasteurizing them destroys many of the glutathione-producing pro
perties.

For example, raw eggs and raw meat are high in cysteine, but cooking destroys the cysteine.   Most industrially-raised meat is of poor quality, and large-scale egg producers have been riddled with salmonella and other problems in recent years.

If you raise your own animals for meat or egg-laying hens, then you’ll know they’re safe.  Otherwise, it may be a little risky eating raw eggs or meat.

Raw milk is apparently very high in glutathione precursors.   But the USDA says that raw milk can be dangerous … and the police may go to some length to shut down raw milk producers.

Raw cruciferous vegetables (brocolli, cauliflower, brussel sprouts, cabbage, cress, and bok choy) are also a good source of cysteine.  But you would have to eat a lot of them … which would cause stomach distress in many people.

So what’s the answer?

Exercise boosts glutatione (and see this).  Lack of sleep can deplete glutathione.  So exercise and get enough rest.

Numerous scientific studies show that “undenatured whey protein” raises glutathione levels.  See this, this, this, this, this, and this.  (Whey protein is derived from milk or cheese, and “undenatured” just means that it is heated enough to kill bacteria … but not high enough to destroy the glutathione precursors.) You can buy it at most health food stores.

If you are a vegan – eating neither meat or dairy products – then you may want to make sure you get enough brown rice protein (because it’s high in the glutathione precursor cysteine).

Supplements available in health food stores – such as Alpha lipoic acid (and here), N-acetylcysteine, S-adenosyl-L-methionine, and the herb milk thistle (and see this) – have also been shown to boost glutathione levels.

For more information on glutathione from physicians – including additional tips for boosting glutathione levels – see this, this and this.

Postscript: Many companies are trying to sell various glutathione boosters. Some work, some don’t … and some do more harm than good. We don’t endorse any specific product.

Read this for more information on how to protect yourself from radiation.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/sBntFNffqHA/story01.htm George Washington

Guest Post: Madness… And Sanity

Submitted by Tim Price via Sovereign Man blog,

“In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable.” — Robert Arnott

Valuations still matter.

Assuming that one is ‘investing’ as opposed to ‘speculating’, initial valuation (i.e. the price you pay for the investment) remains the single most important characteristic of whatever one elects to buy.

And at the risk of sounding like a broken record, “initial valuation” in the US stock market is at a level consistent with very disappointing subsequent returns, if the history of the last 130 years is any guide.

Without fail, every time the US market has traded on a cyclically-adjusted P/E (CAPE) ratio of 24 or higher over the past 130 years, it has been followed by a roughly 20 year bear market.

The evidence for the prosecution is clear, especially for the peak years 1901, 1929, 1966 and 2000. And 2013? The CAPE ratio is more than 25 today.

But there is the stock market, and then there are individual stocks. We have no interest in the former, but plenty of interest in the opportunity set of the latter.

We’re just not that interested in the US market, given general valuation concerns, and the malign role of Fed policy in distorting the prices of everything. As purists and unashamed value investors, we have plenty of other fish to fry.

Probably the biggest of those fish is that giant part of the world economy known as Asia. The chart below shows the anticipated growth in numbers of the middle class throughout the world over the next two decades.

AsiaGrowth Madness, and sanity

The solid green circle is the current middle class population (or as at 2009 to be precise); the wider blue-fringed circle represents the forecast size of this population in 20 years’ time.

The OECD definition of middle class is those households with daily per capita expenditures of between $10 and $100 in purchasing power parity terms.

Note that in the US and Europe, the size of the middle class is barely expected to change over the next two decades. The stand-out area is obvious: the emerging middle class in Asia is forecast to explode, from roughly 500 million to some 3 billion people.

In equity investing, the combination of a compelling secular growth story and compellingly attractive valuations is a very rare thing, the sort of investment opportunity that one might only see once or twice in a generation, if that.

But it exists, here in Asia, today. Once again, however, we have to abandon conventional financial thinking in order to exploit it.

Asian personal consumption between 2007 and 2012 – while the West was suffering from a little localised financial crisis – grew by 5% to 10% per annum. Industries likely to benefit from sustained growth in domestic consumption include food and beverages, clothes, cars, and insurance.

But the index composition of Asian equity index benchmarks leaves much to be desired.

Of the 10 largest companies in the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index, three are low margin exporters in Korea and Taiwan, one is a low margin Chinese telecoms business, three are state-run Chinese banks, one is an inefficient Chinese oil and gas producer, and one is an expensive Chinese internet business.

That doesn’t leave much for value investors to go on.

Asian equity funds more generally, tending to be index-trackers, are heavy in Chinese stocks of indeterminate value and clunky ‘old Asia’ exporters with far too much research coverage.

Or one can ignore index composition (‘yesterday’s winners’) entirely and focus instead on ‘best in breed’ businesses throughout the region on an unconstrained basis– especially those with favorable returns on equity, strong balance sheets, and low valuations.

As Greg Fisher of Adepa Asset Management wrote, amid a world of worries, “keeping the discipline of holding lowly valued, under-owned and unleveraged companies is likely to continue to protect our capital and earn us both income and capital appreciation over the longer term.”

Or to put it more plainly, and in the words of Warren Buffett, “price is what you pay; value is what you get.”

US stocks may be expensive, but you can get better economic fundamentals and cheaper valuations selectively throughout Asia.

And as insurance against the sort of disorderly currency moves that seem to be almost inevitable courtesy of so many central banks behaving badly, we still maintain you can’t do better over the medium term than gold.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/gJqCaZfs9j8/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Returning 2706% In The Past 40 Years, The Best Performing “Yellow” Asset Is…

Monopolistic supply? Thriving wealth-effect-driven demand?

 

As we noted previously,

Medallions – essentially the right to operate a for-hail taxi in New York City – now trade for as much as $1.3 million, an all-time record.   

 

Part of this dynamic is fixed supply – there are just 13,336 medallions available for a city of 8.3 million people.  There is also a macroeconomic point, with a stronger NYC economy for those inhabitants who can afford the service.  The more surprising observation, however, is that new technology in the form of in-car credit card machines and more recently smartphone hailing apps both materially increase the value of owning a medallion.  In a world where every technology is deemed “Disruptive”, here’s a case where the status quo has actually reaped much of the reward.

 

Via ConvergEx's Nick Colas,

Here’s a news flash for everyone who thinks Elon Musk Is the preeminent automotive visionary of our generation: New York City was running electric taxicabs in the 1890s, a decade before Henry Ford’s Model T ever turned a wheel on America’s roads.  A financial crisis in 1907 put a predictable dent in consumer demand for NYC cars-for-hire, and the rise of the internal combustion engine in the 1910s and 1920s eventually did away with the battery-powered cab in Gotham.  By the 1930s the city actually had a glut of taxis, by some accounts as many as 30,000 plying the streets for fares in a Depression-era New York.

To clean up the oversupply of increasingly poorly maintained cabs with drivers desperate to make ends meet in a lousy economy, Mayor Fiorello La Guardia signed something called the Haas Act, which limited the number of taxis to 16,900.  Over the years this cap dwindled to 11,787, even as the city’s population grew.  The basic rules behind this permit, called a “Medallion”, remain largely unchanged from La Guardia’s day, and include:

  • The license to own and operate a taxicab.
  • The ownership of the medallion may be sold or pledged as collateral for a loan.
  • The exclusive right to accept street hails.
  • Fares regulated and authorized by the NYC Taxi and Limousine Commission.
  • Owners of medallions must be US citizens or permanent residents
  • Independent medallion owners must operate their cab 210 nine-hour shifts a year
  • Corporate owners must operate their cabs 24/7
  • Inspections of the vehicle occur every 4 months
  • Medallions sales are subject to a 5% transfer tax

As the number of medallions available is controlled by this process – there are only 13,336 on the streets today – they are quite valuable.  Since both individual and corporate owners can sell their medallions at will, there is a ready market for these licenses.  We’ve included several charts and tables with historical price information immediately after this note, but here are the highlights:

 
 

Owning a medallion has been a winning trade that even the NY hedge fund managers who likely take several cab trips a day would covet.  At the beginning of the Financial Crisis in January 2007, an “Individual” medallion went for $414,000 and a “Corporate” version for $522,000.  Now, the numbers are $1.05 million (July 2013 “Individual”) and $1.32 million (last trade for a “Corporate” medallion, May 2013).  That is an average return of 153% over the last six and a half years. 

 

The longer term track record for medallions is equally impressive – they went for just $140,000 or so in 1993 – but teasing out the actual reasons for these eye-popping returns takes some work.  Remember that the pricing economics of taxi cab operation – and therefore the value of owning a medallion – is controlled by regulation.  You can only charge so much per mile and for wait time.

 

We went back to 1948 to see if these statutory fares explained the increasing value of a medallion.  In that year, for example, a typical cab ride of 1.5 miles with 5 minutes of waiting time at lights would cost $0.63 and the cost of a medallion was $2,500.   It would therefore have taken the average medallion owner about 4,000 trips to pay for his license.  Fast forward to 1964, and this number rose to almost 30,000 trips because fare increases did not keep pace with medallion inflation.

 

 

The good news for the medallion owner of the 1960s-1990s was that this 30,000 trip breakeven declined to about 15,000 during the difficult period of the 1970s in the city and did not breach the 30,000 mark again until 1997.  Fare increases, in other words, offset the ever rising costs of a medallion.  Gas prices also play a role in taxi cab profitability, of course, but it is worth noting (and is clear from our data) that medallion prices did not decline as oil prices rose from 1973 to the present day.

 

Taxi medallion economics have seen a breakout since the early 2000s, as evidenced by our breakeven analysis based on current fare schedules.  It now takes almost 83,000 “Typical” 1.5 mile trips for an “Individual” medallion owner to break even, up from 42,700 in 2004.  For the corporate owner, those numbers rise to 115,600 – up from 48,600 nine years ago.

Now, if you’ve ever had the chance to meet a medallion owner, you know that these are very tough people when it comes to making money.  They know their numbers cold and aren’t shy about expressing their point of view.  In short, they make the typical Wall Streeter look like slightly pouty 8 year old.   Add to this fact the realization that NYC plans to auction off 2,000 new medallions this year AND introduce a new cheap ($1,500) livery license for the outer boroughs and northern Manhattan, and the fundamentals look pretty bewildering.

Here are a few thoughts on the “Mystery of the Million Dollar Medallion”:

 
 

Pricing for a cab ride may be regulated, but nothing says New Yorkers have to take the trip.  One interpretation of the breakout in medallion prices is that New York’s affluent classes have had their own step-up in income and/or wealth and are more often taking cabs than even in the 1990s.  A wrinkle on this explanation would be that as more of Manhattan and parts of Brooklyn go through gentrification, the total population of potential cab customers increases.  This further helps keep the 13,336 medallions busy through the day.  A survey from the mid 2000s showed that most cab rides occurred during the morning commute and were generally to midtown Manhattan from the Upper East and West Side.  As the areas where affluent New Yorker live and work expand, so does their usage of yellow cabs.

 

The increase in medallion prices to nose-bleed levels is, therefore, a sign that the New York economy is extremely strong at least among the top 20% of the population by income.  Remember that if 14,000 wealthy New Yorkers all stuck their hands up at the same time on their corner, over 500 of them would have to grab a MetroCard to get to work.  And the city has 8.3 million total inhabitants.

 

The introduction of in-car credit card processing has been a boon to cab drivers tips.  According to one analysis done in 2009, cash-only tips used to run 10% of the fare.  Since the credit card options for driver tips only offer choices of 20% or more, the introduction of these machines over the last few years has meant higher per-trip revenues for the driver.  And since part of the value of a medallion is essentially the right to collect these tips, it makes sense that drivers would pay medallion owners more over time.

 

Perhaps the most interesting wild card for the value of a NYC taxi medallion is the burgeoning technology of smartphone taxi applications like Hailo, Uber, Lyft and others.  These do pretty much what you’d expect – find you a nearby cab based with information from your geolocated phone.  This could easily improve cab utilization in New York quite dramatically, justifying higher medallion prices.  The first usage data from such apps has just come out in the past few weeks, and the results are lukewarm at best.  It is, however, early days. 

What I find most interesting about this exercise is the fact that technology – credit cards and smartphone apps – has served to enhance the value of established status quo rather than its customary role of “Disruptor”.  To understand why, remember who owns the right to issue a medallion: the New York City government.  The current plans to issue 2,000 more medallions could net the still cash-strapped city something like $2 billion over the next few years.  And they control the laws about who can – and can’t – pick up a fare in New York.  Think they are going to let a “Disruptive technology” alter their existing and highly lucrative model?

If so, I have a bridge in Brooklyn I would like to sell you.  All we need to do is find a taxi to take us there. 


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/WTAKNA0xHGs/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Returning 2706% In The Past 40 Years, The Best Performing "Yellow" Asset Is…

Monopolistic supply? Thriving wealth-effect-driven demand?

 

As we noted previously,

Medallions – essentially the right to operate a for-hail taxi in New York City – now trade for as much as $1.3 million, an all-time record.   

 

Part of this dynamic is fixed supply – there are just 13,336 medallions available for a city of 8.3 million people.  There is also a macroeconomic point, with a stronger NYC economy for those inhabitants who can afford the service.  The more surprising observation, however, is that new technology in the form of in-car credit card machines and more recently smartphone hailing apps both materially increase the value of owning a medallion.  In a world where every technology is deemed “Disruptive”, here’s a case where the status quo has actually reaped much of the reward.

 

Via ConvergEx's Nick Colas,

Here’s a news flash for everyone who thinks Elon Musk Is the preeminent automotive visionary of our generation: New York City was running electric taxicabs in the 1890s, a decade before Henry Ford’s Model T ever turned a wheel on America’s roads.  A financial crisis in 1907 put a predictable dent in consumer demand for NYC cars-for-hire, and the rise of the internal combustion engine in the 1910s and 1920s eventually did away with the battery-powered cab in Gotham.  By the 1930s the city actually had a glut of taxis, by some accounts as many as 30,000 plying the streets for fares in a Depression-era New York.

To clean up the oversupply of increasingly poorly maintained cabs with drivers desperate to make ends meet in a lousy economy, Mayor Fiorello La Guardia signed something called the Haas Act, which limited the number of taxis to 16,900.  Over the years this cap dwindled to 11,787, even as the city’s population grew.  The basic rules behind this permit, called a “Medallion”, remain largely unchanged from La Guardia’s day, and include:

  • The license to own and operate a taxicab.
  • The ownership of the medallion may be sold or pledged as collateral for a loan.
  • The exclusive right to accept street hails.
  • Fares regulated and authorized by the NYC Taxi and Limousine Commission.
  • Owners of medallions must be US citizens or permanent residents
  • Independent medallion owners must operate their cab 210 nine-hour shifts a year
  • Corporate owners must operate their cabs 24/7
  • Inspections of the vehicle occur every 4 months
  • Medallions sales are subject to a 5% transfer tax

As the number of medallions available is controlled by this process – there are only 13,336 on the streets today – they are quite valuable.  Since both individual and corporate owners can sell their medallions at will, there is a ready market for these licenses.  We’ve included several charts and tables with historical price information immediately after this note, but here are the highlights:

 
 

Owning a medallion has been a winning trade that even the NY hedge fund managers who likely take several cab trips a day would covet.  At the beginning of the Financial Crisis in January 2007, an “Individual” medallion went for $414,000 and a “Corporate” version for $522,000.  Now, the numbers are $1.05 million (July 2013 “Individual”) and $1.32 million (last trade for a “Corporate” medallion, May 2013).  That is an average return of 153% over the last six and a half years. 

 

The longer term track record for medallions is equally impressive – they went for just $140,000 or so in 1993 – but teasing out the actual reasons for these eye-popping returns takes some work.  Remember that the pricing economics of taxi cab operation – and therefore the value of owning a medallion – is controlled by regulation.  You can only charge so much per mile and for wait time.

 

We went back to 1948 to see if these statutory fares explained the increasing value of a medallion.  In that year, for example, a typical cab ride of 1.5 miles with 5 minutes of waiting time at lights would cost $0.63 and the cost of a medallion was $2,500.   It would therefore have taken the average medallion owner about 4,000 trips to pay for his license.  Fast forward to 1964, and this number rose to almost 30,000 trips because fare increases did not keep pace with medallion inflation.

 

 

The good news for the medallion owner of the 1960s-1990s was that this 30,000 trip breakeven declined to about 15,000 during the difficult period of the 1970s in the city and did not breach the 30,000 mark again until 1997.  Fare increases, in other words, offset the ever rising costs of a medallion.  Gas prices also play a role in taxi cab profitability, of course, but it is worth noting (and is clear from our data) that medallion prices did not decline as oil prices rose from 1973 to the present day.

 

Taxi medallion economics have seen a breakout since the early 2000s, as evidenced by our breakeven analysis based on current fare schedules.  It now takes almost 83,000 “Typical” 1.5 mile trips for an “Individual” medallion owner to break even, up from 42,700 in 2004.  For the corporate owner, those numbers rise to 115,600 – up from 48,600 nine years ago.

Now, if you’ve ever had the chance to meet a medallion owner, you know that these are very tough people when it comes to making money.  They know their numbers cold and aren’t shy about expressing their point of view.  In short, they make the typical Wall Streeter look like slightly pouty 8 year old.   Add to this fact the realization that NYC plans to auction off 2,000 new medallions this year AND introduce a new cheap ($1,500) livery license for the outer boroughs and northern Manhattan, and the fundamentals look pretty bewildering.

Here are a few thoughts on the “Mystery of the Million Dollar Medallion”:

 
 

Pricing for a cab ride may be regulated, but nothing says New Yorkers have to take the trip.  One interpretation of the breakout in medallion prices is that New York’s affluent classes have had their own step-up in income and/or wealth and are more often taking cabs than even in the 1990s.  A wrinkle on this explanation would be that as more of
Manhattan and parts of Brooklyn go through gentrification, the total population of potential cab customers increases.  This further helps keep the 13,336 medallions busy through the day.  A survey from the mid 2000s showed that most cab rides occurred during the morning commute and were generally to midtown Manhattan from the Upper East and West Side.  As the areas where affluent New Yorker live and work expand, so does their usage of yellow cabs.

 

The increase in medallion prices to nose-bleed levels is, therefore, a sign that the New York economy is extremely strong at least among the top 20% of the population by income.  Remember that if 14,000 wealthy New Yorkers all stuck their hands up at the same time on their corner, over 500 of them would have to grab a MetroCard to get to work.  And the city has 8.3 million total inhabitants.

 

The introduction of in-car credit card processing has been a boon to cab drivers tips.  According to one analysis done in 2009, cash-only tips used to run 10% of the fare.  Since the credit card options for driver tips only offer choices of 20% or more, the introduction of these machines over the last few years has meant higher per-trip revenues for the driver.  And since part of the value of a medallion is essentially the right to collect these tips, it makes sense that drivers would pay medallion owners more over time.

 

Perhaps the most interesting wild card for the value of a NYC taxi medallion is the burgeoning technology of smartphone taxi applications like Hailo, Uber, Lyft and others.  These do pretty much what you’d expect – find you a nearby cab based with information from your geolocated phone.  This could easily improve cab utilization in New York quite dramatically, justifying higher medallion prices.  The first usage data from such apps has just come out in the past few weeks, and the results are lukewarm at best.  It is, however, early days. 

What I find most interesting about this exercise is the fact that technology – credit cards and smartphone apps – has served to enhance the value of established status quo rather than its customary role of “Disruptor”.  To understand why, remember who owns the right to issue a medallion: the New York City government.  The current plans to issue 2,000 more medallions could net the still cash-strapped city something like $2 billion over the next few years.  And they control the laws about who can – and can’t – pick up a fare in New York.  Think they are going to let a “Disruptive technology” alter their existing and highly lucrative model?

If so, I have a bridge in Brooklyn I would like to sell you.  All we need to do is find a taxi to take us there. 


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/WTAKNA0xHGs/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Senators Still Pushing Iran Sanctions Even With an Actual Deal on the Table, Reluctant Warmongers Want War

head strong, dead wrong?Negotiators from Iran and Germany, France, and
England (the E3), and later also the US, Russia, and China (the
E3+3, or P5+1) have been working on-and-off for more than seven
years on a deal about Iran’s nuclear program, which the West
insists is actually about acquiring nuclear weapons. After a deal
appeared just out of reach in a round of negotiations earlier this
month, some US senators, most notably Bob Menendez, the Democrat
chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, pushed for more
sanctions, to show the Iranians the US was not as interested as
they were in reaching a deal,
a silly argument
of which Secretary of State John Kerry was
nevertheless
unable to disabuse
senators interested in a more hostile policy
toward Iran.

This weekend, the latest round of talks actually produced a
deal, with Iran agreeing within the first six months to stop
enriching uranium beyond 5 percent, and to downgrade or eliminate
its uranium stockpile that’s at near 20 percent enrichment. In
exchange, the Western powers agree to a limited lifting of
sanctions. As the White House explains, “the overwhelming majority
of the sanctions regime, including the key oil, banking, and
financial sanctions architecture, remains in place.” That’s not
enough for Senate hawks, Democrat and Republican, who are
starting to push
, again, for more sanctions. This time,
Menendez wants to work on sanctions legislation that somewhat
incorporates the recently reached deal—it would “provide for a six
month window to reach a final agreement before imposing new
sanctions on Iran, but will at the same time be immediately
available should the talks falter or Iran fail to implement or
breach the interim agreement.” Armchair (dais?) tough guy to the
last.

Republicans, even more eager to show voters they’re tougher than
the president on Iran. Marco Rubio,
for example
, sees an “even more urgent need for Congress to
increase sanctions until Iran completely abandons its enrichment
and reprocessing capabilities.” Establishment Republicans aren’t
just interested in showing their more headstrong than President
Obama, they may also be
trying to isolate non-interventionists in their own party
, most
notably Kentucky senator and likely future presidential candidate
Rand Paul.

It’s a bizarre move by establishment Republicans, and Democrats.
As recently as late September, 75 percent of Americans
favored
direct negotiations with Iran over the nuclear issue
(even as Obama’s poll numbers have plummeted). That number included
a full 68 percent of Republicans. The argument that direct
negotiations need sanctions to work is specious, as I made the case

earlier this month
. Attempts by senators to jump the gun on
sanctions now, as talks are moving forward, destroy the good faith
 it was so difficult for negotiators on all sides to build.
Americans, too, are weary of war, something the White House has not
shied away from
pointing out
would be the direction increased sanctions and
failed talks would push US policy toward.

this closeBill
Kristol takes issue with this, calling it a “smear” to identify
politicians pushing policies that would lead to war as “reckless
warmongers.”  He follows this, in typical embellished fashion
(the battle of Gettysburg makes an appearance), by noting Israeli
prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu would have the “burden of
history” hanging over him as he decides whether to launch military
action to “thwart” Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Polling last year

showed
fewer than 20 percent of Israelis supporting a
unilateral strike. As negotiations have begun to show progress, and
Netanyahu has continued to push the argument that the US is wrong
to negotiate with Iran in the fashion it has, those numbers have
reversed. One poll earlier this month
showed
52 percent of Israelis now supporting a solo strike now,
with 65 percent
opposing
the ongoing talks with Iran. Israeli columnist Shlomi
Eldar questions the depth of Israeli support for war with Iran.
“Israelis should be asked if they are for or against an attack in
Iran that could develop into a war with hundreds of casualties,” he

writes in Al Monitor
. “Would 65% of Israelis still vote in
favor? I doubt it.” The argument of pro-war supporters in Israel,
the US, and everywhere in between hinges on how close Iran is to
developing a nuclear weapon (Years! Months!), even though
intelligence analysts have been predicting Iran being close to the
development of a nuclear weapon
since at least the late 1990s
. Instead of the burdens of
history, self-professed reluctant warmongers should consider the
burdens of proof.

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2013/11/25/senators-still-pushing-sanctions-even-wi
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Bid To Cover Jumps In Strong 2 Year Bond Auction

If one of the biggest concerns in early 2013 was the progressively declining Bids To Cover in US Treasury auctions, the past few months have seen a halt in this trend, while today’s auction of $32 billion in 2 Year paper marked a substantial return to the high-flying  BTC day of yore when the just completed 2 Year auction not only priced strongly through the 0.303% high yield, pricing at 0.300, but more importantly, at a 3.54 Bid to Cover, a jump from October’s 3.09, and the second highest since February excluding only April’s 3.63. Curiously, the drop in the overall Bid To Cover (as can be sen on the chart below) correlates closely to the drop off in Direct take downs in the first half of the year. This too has reversed in recent months with Directs getting 27.28%, Indirects holding 22.47% and Dealers left holding just over half, or 50.25%. Over the next few days it will be revealed if the same rising BTC trend is sustained in the other near-term vintages, the 5 and 7 year auctions also due out later week.


    

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/H71sm14PUUs/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Black Power Republicans and Blackstone Rangers

A postscript to my
earlier item
about John McClaughry and the Republicans of the
1960s: I wasn’t kidding when I said the “moderate” wing of the GOP
contained multitudes. Check out this passage from Geoffrey
Kabaservice’s fascinating 2012 book
Rule and Ruin
, which comes after McClaughry and his
then-boss, Illinois Sen. Charles Percy, forged an alliance with
David R. Reed, a Chicago civil rights activist who led a group
called the
New Breed Committee
. Reed, who soon ran for Congress as a
Republican, supported local control of schools, opposed centralized
public housing plans, and wanted to replace traditional welfare
programs with something similar to Milton Friedman’s negative
income tax (in part because the Chicago Democratic machine “used
threats of welfare cutoffs to keep the poor in line”). He also put
Percy’s office in touch with some folks who wouldn’t usually turn
up in a Republican rolodex:

Young Republicanshe
introduced McClaughry and other Percy assistants to the
3,000-member Blackstone Rangers, Chicago’s most powerful and feared
black street gang. Reed’s work with young people brought him into
contact with some of the Rangers. Members of the New Breed
approached the gang to try to get them not to harm Reed’s workers
in the district, particularly white volunteers and people on loan
from the Pecy campaign. Some members of the New Breed believed that
the Rangers could provide access to voters in the housing projects,
while others hoped to channel the gang’s energies away from
violence and into political activism. Reed became a liason between
the gang and the Republicans working for his campaign, which led to
meetings with the gang’s charismatic kingpin, Jeff Fort, and
late-night basketball games with gang members. For a while,
McClaughry was optimistic about a possible Republican-Ranger
entente. “There is no doubt in my mind at all that Jeff [Fort] go
to City Council or even further, with his ability and magnetic
leadership,” he wrote to Reed. “If the Rangers get the message,
there could really be a revolution within people, as well
as within the district.” McClaughry later recalled that “The
Blackstone Rangers were at war with City Hall and the Democratic
power structure, and so were the Republicans, so there was some
interest in this group. The Republicans put out a tentative
feelers, because if these people actually voted, or if they
intimidated whole neighborhoods into voting, they could be a
powerful voting bloc. But this was risky business, since the
Rangers were criminals.”

File that idea under Paths Not Taken: “In the end, the
Republicans decided the risks of working with the Rangers
outweighed the benefits.” But the gang didn’t leave politics
behind: They soon got
some grant money
from LBJ’s Office of Economic Opportunity.
Fort eventually found a new political patron, name of
Muammar Qaddafi
.

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2013/11/25/black-power-republicans-and-blackstone-r
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The Average American Ferrari Buyer Is 47 Years Old; In China – Only 32

In China, 9 out of 10 billionaires are self-made, the highest percentage of any country (and by self-made we are unsure whether BusinessWeek’s Christina Larson means via entrepreurial spirits or government connected handout) but there is another fact that makes the Chinese billionaire different from the rest of the average run-of-the-mill billionaires we discussed here. The average age of the country’s 157 billionaires is 53 years old – nine years younger than the world average. But perhaps the most shocking statistic among the luxury buyer is that the average Ferrari buyer in the U.S. is 47 years old; in China, he is 32.

 

Here’s how the wealth – among the families of Communist China’s “Eight Immortals” – has been grealt rotated and grown among them…

 

As Bloomberg BusinessWeek notes,

To be sure, self-made fortunes aren’t always made cleanly in China, as Bloomberg News documented in a 2012 investigative series on the extreme wealth of China’s leading political families, “Revolution to Riches.”

It’s no surprise, given the deep intertwinement of money and political power in China, that Beijing is home to the country’s highest number of billionaires, with 26. That’s followed by Shanghai, with 19 billionaires, and Shenzhen with 16. The UBS study calculates the combined net worth of China’s billionaires to be $384 billion, roughly equivalent to the entire annual gross domestic product of South Africa in 2012.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/B9PGzX5G6iM/story01.htm Tyler Durden

FDA Shuts Down 23andMe: Outrageously Banning Consumer Access to Personal Genome Information:

23andMeFor a couple of years, I have
been warning all my friends and colleagues to purchase $99 personal
genome testing from 23andMe before the Feds banned it. Well, now
the Food and Drug Administration has banned it sending the genome
testing company a
warning letter
:

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is sending you this
letter because you are marketing the 23andMe Saliva Collection Kit
and Personal Genome Service (PGS) without marketing clearance or
approval in violation of the Federal Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act
(the FD&C Act). 

This product is a device within the meaning of section 201(h) of
the FD&C Act, 21 U.S.C. 321(h), because it is intended for use
in the diagnosis of disease or other conditions or in the cure,
mitigation, treatment, or prevention of disease, or is intended to
affect the structure or function of the body. For example,
your company’s website at www.23andme.com/health (most recently
viewed on November 6, 2013) markets the PGS for providing “health
reports on 254 diseases and conditions,” including categories such
as “carrier status,” “health risks,” and “drug response,” and
specifically as a “first step in prevention” that enables users to
“take steps toward mitigating serious diseases” such as diabetes,
coronary heart disease, and breast cancer. Most of the
intended uses for PGS listed on your website, a list that has grown
over time, are medical device uses under section 201(h) of the
FD&C Act. Most of these uses have not been classified and
thus require premarket approval or de novo classification, as FDA
has explained to you on numerous occasions.

The FDA says it is concerned that consumers would misunderstand
genetic marker information and self treat. For example, the agency
cites the company for testing for versions of the BRCA gene that
confers higher risk of breast cancer worrying that women might get
a false positive test leading “a patient to undergo prophylactic
surgery, chemoprevention, intensive screening, or other
morbidity-inducing actions….”

What the test results would actually lead patients to do is to
get another test and to talk with their physicians. The FDA also
cites the genotype results that indicate the sensitivity of
patients to the blood-thinning medication warfarin. Again, such
results would be used by patients to talk with their doctors about
their treatment regimens should the time come that they need to
take the drug. In fact, in 2010 the FDA actually updated its rules
to recommend
genetic testing
to set the proper warfarin dosages for
patients.

It is notable that the FDA cites not one example of a patient
being harmed through the use of 23andMe’s genotype screening test.
Nevertheless the agency orders that…

…23andMe must immediately discontinue marketing the PGS
(Personal Genome Service) until such time as it receives FDA
marketing authorization for the device.

The FDA bureaucrats think that they know better than you how to
handle your genetic information. This is outrageous.

For more background, see my 2011 Reason article on my
own genetic testing experience
here
and go to SNPedia here for even
more information on my genetic flaws.

H/T Mike Riggs and Andrew Mayne.

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2013/11/25/fda-shuts-down-23andme-outrageously-bann
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