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Bloomberg has been kind enough to summarize the epic confusion gripping the sellside on the topic of the Taper, which once again everyone thought would not take place until 2014, and now there is palpable panic may hit as soon as next week. Kudos to the Fed on its “transparent” communication strategy.

Below is Bloomberg’s recap of the main viewpoints on when FOMC will start to Taper, with estimates ranging from FOMC’s Dec. 17-18 meeting in Washington to Jan. or March, based on published research.

Barclays

• Fed will wait until March to taper

BMO

• Do not expect “Yuletide Taper”

BNP

• QE to end by early 2015

BoT-Mitsubishi

• Fed should take immediate action on QE taper
• Fed officials dragging feet on QE exit

Capital Economics

• Jobs data points to tapering this month
  
• QE tapering this month “very close call”

Citi

• Expectations for Fed tapering in Dec. increase in poll
• Fed to discuss tapering in “concrete” way

 

CRT

• Fed “apprehensive” about impact of tapering

DB

• USD to benefit as jobs data seals Dec. taper

GMP

• Payrolls “not good enough” for Dec. taper

GS

• Jobs data strong, still expect March taper

HFE

• Payroll gain points to taper as soon as next month

ING

• Jobs data suggests tapering is closer

JPMorgan

• Nov. jobs report “smells a little like tapering”
• Fed cut to IOER rate would complicate communications

Miller Tabak

• Drop in jobless rate signals Dec. QE taper

Mizuho

• Economy not yet ripe for tapering

Morgan Stanley

• Fed to taper in March, cut UR threshold to 6%

MUFJ

• Aug.-Nov. labor market data supports Dec. taper

Natixis

• U.S. economy’s fragility urges Fed caution

Newedge

• Fed could go beyond tapering next week

Nomura

• 37% See Fed tapering next week
• Expect no Dec. tapering

Pimco’s Gross

• Odds of Fed tapering are 50% in Dec., clear that Fed wants out of QE

Renaissance

• Fed will wait to taper in 1Q instead of Dec.

Sunrise

• Taper-tightening link looks stronger on payrolls

TD

• Fed’s tapering-isn’t-tightening message begins to resonate
• Odds of Jan. tapering now above 50%

* * *

Good luck.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/YH5VRDzLKyk/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Bloomberg has been kind enough to summarize the epic confusion gripping the sellside on the topic of the Taper, which once again everyone thought would not take place until 2014, and now there is palpable panic may hit as soon as next week. Kudos to the Fed on its “transparent” communication strategy.

Below is Bloomberg’s recap of the main viewpoints on when FOMC will start to Taper, with estimates ranging from FOMC’s Dec. 17-18 meeting in Washington to Jan. or March, based on published research.

Barclays

• Fed will wait until March to taper

BMO

• Do not expect “Yuletide Taper”

BNP

• QE to end by early 2015

BoT-Mitsubishi

• Fed should take immediate action on QE taper
• Fed officials dragging feet on QE exit

Capital Economics

• Jobs data points to tapering this month
  
• QE tapering this month “very close call”

Citi

• Expectations for Fed tapering in Dec. increase in poll
• Fed to discuss tapering in “concrete” way

 

CRT

• Fed “apprehensive” about impact of tapering

DB

• USD to benefit as jobs data seals Dec. taper

GMP

• Payrolls “not good enough” for Dec. taper

GS

• Jobs data strong, still expect March taper

HFE

• Payroll gain points to taper as soon as next month

ING

• Jobs data suggests tapering is closer

JPMorgan

• Nov. jobs report “smells a little like tapering”
• Fed cut to IOER rate would complicate communications

Miller Tabak

• Drop in jobless rate signals Dec. QE taper

Mizuho

• Economy not yet ripe for tapering

Morgan Stanley

• Fed to taper in March, cut UR threshold to 6%

MUFJ

• Aug.-Nov. labor market data supports Dec. taper

Natixis

• U.S. economy’s fragility urges Fed caution

Newedge

• Fed could go beyond tapering next week

Nomura

• 37% See Fed tapering next week
• Expect no Dec. tapering

Pimco’s Gross

• Odds of Fed tapering are 50% in Dec., clear that Fed wants out of QE

Renaissance

• Fed will wait to taper in 1Q instead of Dec.

Sunrise

• Taper-tightening link looks stronger on payrolls

TD

• Fed’s tapering-isn’t-tightening message begins to resonate
• Odds of Jan. tapering now above 50%

* * *

Good luck.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/YH5VRDzLKyk/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Submitted by Scott Belinksi of OilPrice.com,

If one was to believe the picture that most Western media outlets are painting, Ukraine has been lost to Russia. Though the country fought valiantly to sign an Association Agreement with the European Union in Vilnius, Lithuania last month, President Viktor Yanukovych suspended negotiations with the EU at the last possible moment, betraying Ukrainians everywhere. Two recent energy deals that Ukraine has reportedly made, one with Russia and the other with Slovakia, however, show that the reality of the situation is slightly more complex.

Claiming that Yanukovych had always wanted negotiations with the EU to fail would arguably be giving him and his advisors too little credit as political strategists. In terms of public opinion, signing the Association Agreement would have all but secured Yanukovych’s re-election in 2015, whereas his step down from the deal has visibly shaken his legitimacy as President to its core. Rather, too little attention is given to the very real economic pressure Russia has placed on Ukraine and the EU’s reluctance or inability to offset Putin’s ‘trade war’. Furthermore, while Yanukovych did not sign the Association Agreement in Vilnius, he did not commit his country to Putin’s rival ‘Eurasian Union’ either.

Prior to the Vilnius Summit in November, the Ukrainian government found itself between a rock and a hard place. On one hand, Russia was imposing exorbitant gas prices and devastating economic sanctions on Ukraine’s already fragile economy. By October 10th, 2013, trade between the two countries had fallen by 25% and prices for Russian gas, on which Ukraine remains dependent, stood at $420/1000 m3, $50 more than the European average. On the other hand, EU leaders refused to hold tripartite negotiations with Russia and Ukraine, instead using all their leverage to insist that jailed former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, convicted of abuse of office and embezzlement in 2011, be freed.

All of this comes on top of Ukraine’s dire situation. The country faces $10 billion in principal and interest payments next year and has the third-highest default probability in the world. In an address following his decision to suspend negotiations with the EU, Yanukovych stated, "I would have been wrong if I hadn't done everything necessary for people not to lose their jobs, receive salaries, pensions and scholarships.” While many Ukrainians and outside observers may not take the President’s words at face value, it is no lie that, had Ukraine signed the agreement, economic disaster would have been imminent.

Two energy deals

As there was little the EU could/would offer to offset the immediate Russian reprisals on Ukraine’s economy, the government renounced signing the Association Agreement. However, two gas deals currently in the works show that, far from being sucked forever into Russia’s orbit, Ukraine will continue to flirt with both East and West and, most of all, move towards energy independence.

While the exact details of the deal Yanukovych has hammered out with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi last Saturday remain unknown, Edward Lucas, the international editor of The Economist claims that gas prices for Ukraine will be brought down to $200/1000m3 with a $5 billion cherry payment on top. Lucas also claims that Yanukovych has promised that Ukraine will join Russia’s customs union as part of the deal, though this has been virulently denied by the Russian administration. At the same time, payments for Russian gas transferred from Gazprom to Naftogaz between October and December 2013 have been deferred until the Spring of 2014, all of which gives Ukraine some much-needed breathing room.

On the Western front, however, Ukraine agreed on the conditions for a gas deal with Slovakia for importing European Union gas through Slovak pipelines. These new flows, including gas from Poland and Hungary, could exceed 10 billion cubic meters annually, enough to meet Ukraine’s entire import needs. The move, which has long been heralded as a strategy to curb Ukraine’s energy dependence on Russia, comes less than two weeks after negotiations with the EU broke down, questioning the dominant narrative that the Ukrainian government is content to sign itself away to Moscow.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/QZzAkPnxGzw/story01.htm Tyler Durden

The 10 Year may so far be contained below its multi-year high of 3.00% hit in September just before Bernanke’s “no taper” announcement, but the ultra long end, or the 30 Year, keeps dropping. Sure enough, moments ago the latest 30 Year reopening of 29 Year-11 Month CUSIP RD2 priced at a high yield of 3.900%. This may have been half a bp through the 3.905% When Issued, it still was the highest pricing yield on the 30 Year since July 2011, right before the US downgrade and the 20% S&P plunge resulting from the near debt ceiling breach. The Bid To Cover of 2.35 was modestly higher than last month’s 2.16 but had a ways to go to catch up to the TTM average of 2.48. In terms of allotment, Indirects got the bulk of the auction, with 46% or the highest take down since April 2011. Directs were allotted 12.5%, or the lowest since June, which meant Dealers would have to “sell” back to the Fed 41.4% of the auction. So while not as immediately stirring as yesterday’s very weak 10 Year, the sentiment toward the long end continues to deteriorate.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/-F1mIpPNZ1E/story01.htm Tyler Durden