Take a Grain of Salt With Those "Long" Connecticut Gun Registration Lines

AR-15Connecticut news outlets report long lines as the
deadline looms for state residents to undergo the registration
process that will magically render their firearms and
standard-capacity magazines legal, in contrast to those evil,
forbidden, yet identical, guns and mags that remain unregistered
after the turn of the year. Thousands of registrations have been
recorded, yet whether that counts as substantial compliance with
the law depends on something that’s unknowable: how many objects
subject to the law are in the state. As I’ve written before,
however, defiance of such laws is the historical norm.

According to
NBC Connecticut
:

Long lines extended again from Connecticut State Police
headquarters in Middletown Tuesday morning as gun owners raced to
comply with new gun laws that go into effect on Jan. 1.

New gun laws were enacted after the tragic shooting at Sandy
Hook Elementary School in Newtown in December 2012 that took the
lives of 20 first graders and six staff members. Tuesday is the
year-end deadline for gun owners to register certain assault
weapons as well as high-capacity magazines. …

As of Christmas, 25,000 people had registered assault weapons
and 17,000 registered high-capacity magazines, Malloy said Monday.
That number is sure to rise after hundreds of people waited in line
on the final two days of 2013, rushing to meet the deadline.

25,000 registered “assault weapons” with hundreds more to go?
But Governor Andrew Cuomo in (much larger) neighboring New York
estimates the number of similar weapons in his state at
one million
, while a widely ignored 1991 ban in New Jersey on
the arbitrarily defined category of weapons was estimated to apply
to
100,000-300,000 such guns
, before the
politics-fueled buying frenzies
of the last two
decades
.

I’m willing to bet that 25,000 registered assault weapons
represents a minority of the firearms that are legally required to
be registered under the law. Considering that the vast majority of
“assault weapons” use magazines restricted under the new law, and
that most people purchase multiple magazines for their rifles,
17,000 registrations in that category should be seen as wildly
underwhelming.

That shouldn’t be surprising at all, since
defiance of registration laws, let alone confiscations, is the
historical norm
in the United States, Australia, Canada,
France, Germany … Politicians made that particular bed by being
repeatedly untrustworthy,
abusing registration records
to seize recorded weapons, or
otherwise letting even tolerable governments degenerate into the
sort of regimes that make you wish you had a gun.

In a white paper on the results of gun control efforts around
the world,
Gun Control and the Reduction of the Number of Arms
,
Franz Csaszar, a professor of criminology at the University of
Vienna, Austria, wrote, “non-compliance with harsher gun laws is a
common event.” He estimated that Germans registered 3.2 million of
17-20 million affected weapons when registration was implemented in
that country in 1972. Austrians, he says, registered perhaps a
quarter to a third of weapons subject to a similar law in 1996.

When California imposed “assault weapon” registration in 1990,
The New York Times
reported
“only about 7,000 weapons of an estimated 300,000 in
private hands in the state have been registered” at the time the
grace period came to a close.

So take those “long lines” in Connecticut with a grain of salt.
Government officials are capable of turning a dinner party into an
extended, bureaucratic ordeal. But they can’t make compliance with
intrusive and repressive laws seem like a goood idea.

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2013/12/31/take-a-grain-of-salt-with-those-long-con
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The Trends To Watch For In 2014

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith via Peak Prosperity,

At the beginning of this year (2013), I identified eight key dynamics that will play out over the next two to three years (2013-2015):

Trend #1: Central Planning intervention in stock and bond markets will continue, despite diminishing returns on Central State/Bank intervention

 

Trend #2:  The omnipotence of the Federal Reserve will suffer a fatal erosion of confidence as recession voids Fed policy and pronouncements of “recovery"

 

Trend #3: The Mainstream Media (MSM) will continue to lose credibility as it parrots Central Planners’ perception management

 

Trend #4:  The failure of what is effectively the “State religion,” Keynesianism, will leave policy makers in the Central State and Bank bereft of policy alternatives

 

Trend #5: Economic Stagnation will fuel the rise of Permanent Adolescence

 

Trend #6: Income, the foundation of real economic growth and wealth-distribution stability, will continue to stagnate

 

Trend #7: Small business—the engine of growth—will continue to decline for structural reasons

 

Trend #8: Territorial disputes will continue to be invoked to distract domestic audiences from domestic instability and inequality

I know it may strike some as “cheating” that my forecast is for these trends to be consequential within a three-year window rather than by a specific date, but note these are trends, not events, and trends tend not to matter until suddenly they do. This is the nature of Pareto Distributions, in which trends are inconsequential until they reach a critical-mass of 4% of the populace, at which point the “vital few” exert outsized influence on 64% of the populace.

Let’s see how the trends developed in 2013:

Trend #1:  Intervention yielded outstanding returns on corporate profits and stocks, but diminishing returns on employment, household incomes for the bottom 80% and growth, all of which are historically subpar.

Trend #2: The Fed’s members are still regarded as heroic demigods who benignly manage the Earth’s economy. When (not if) the stock market rolls over in 2014-15, Fed omnipotence will suffer.

Trend #3: This one is difficult to track but anecdotal evidence (declining circulation of many mainstream print media, declining viewership in some cable news channels, etc.) may reflect rising disenchantment with the media’s coverage of key issues.

Trend #4:  I think it is quite clear that the Fed and its posse of experts have no alternatives to ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) and QE (quantitative easing).

Trend #5:  This one is difficult to monitor. If we use the percentage of young people still living at home and the rise of “selfies” (photos taken of oneself), then perhaps a case can be made that this trend is already visible.

Trend #6:  Median household income has edged up, but I suspect this is the result of higher incomes for the top 10% rather than widely distributed gains. Since the top 10% collect 51% of all income, it stands to reason that increases flowing to the top will boost median income even if the bottom 90% saw declines in income.

Trend #7: The unintended consequences of the Affordable Care Act have yet to fully play out.

Trend #8: China’s recent invocation of a “defense zone” that includes the Senkaku Islands suggests this trend is definitely in play.

I also listed eight outcomes:

Outcome #1:  The counterfeiting of risk-free assets will continue to be a primary policy of the Status Quo

 

Outcome #2:  Risk will continue to be transferred en masse to the public

 

Outcome #3: Democracy in America is officially dysfunctional

 

Outcome #4:  Incentives will continue to be structurally perverse, and the rule of law will continue to be bent by individuals, enterprises, and the government

 

Outcome #5:  Healthcare (a.k.a. sickcare) will continue to be an enormous drag on the economy as diminishing returns, fraud, complexity, and defensive medicine add costs without equivalent improvements in health

 

Outcome #6:  The costs of complying with Obamacare will act as an inflection point in the decline of small business

 

Outcome #7:  The trend of the Status Quo “solving” perceived problems by adding layers of immense complexity to systems already suffering from marginal returns will continue

 

Outcome #8:  The informal cash economy will continue expanding, as those who choose to opt out of the Status Quo and those who must opt out as a survival mechanism do so

Without going into detail, I think a self-evident case can be made that each of these outcomes is already visible at the end of 2013.

Additional Trends to Watch in 2014

Since the trends listed above are still operant, these eight are additional rather than replacement trends:

Trend #1: The Number One growth industry in the private sector will increasingly be lobbying the government for favors.  When the State selects the winners and losers throughout the economy, then companies are essentially forced to make their case for special dispensations via campaign contributions and unrelenting lobbying. Elected officials benefit from their centralized powers, as the line of corporations anxiously pressing campaign cash on them lengthens in direct proportion to the expansion of State power.

This is the essence of what some call the Corporatocracy that effectively governs the U.S.A., and what I call the Neofeudal Cartel/State system, as the State and its chosen cartels dominate the economy and society in a fashion that can only be described as neofeudal.

Since organic growth from increases in wages and purchasing power are limited to the top 10%, the only sectors that can possibly gain growth from rising sales are Porsche dealerships and other luxury outlets that cater to the to
p 10%.  But since the number of households adding income is a thin 10 million out of 121 million households, moving more luxury goods offers little growth opportunities for the rest of the economy, which is stagnant at best.

As a result, lobbying the central State for favors is the default “growth industry.”

Trend #2:  The difference between anemic growth and recession will increasingly be semantic. This is another “how many angels can dance on the head of a pin?” debates in which Ivory Tower/State economists parse juiced or manipulated data to conclude the economy is “growing slowly” or slipping into negative growth, i.e. recession.

Experientially, if purchasing power and discretionary income (what’s left after paying taxes, rent, mortgages, food, utilities, etc.) are both declining for 90% of households, the “growth” in inventories, exports and other factors that feed into gross domestic product (GDP) are not reflecting the economy we actually inhabit.

Trumpeting what amounts to signal noise as “steady growth” is adept perception management (i.e. propaganda), but if it doesn’t include increases in purchasing power and discretionary income for the bottom 90%, it’s a propaganda embarrassment, like the Fed official hyping the declining cost of tablet computers while someone in the audience shouts, “I can’t eat an iPad.”

Trend #3: The decline in local government services will accelerate as rising pension/healthcare costs squeeze budgets.  Local governments (city, county, state) have avoided the politically combustible collision of rising pension/ healthcare costs and angry taxpayers tired of service cuts by accounting trickery and jacking up fees and taxes. Crunch-time has also been put off by rising home values that pushed property tax revenues higher.

These solutions are running out of rope: property values have topped out and accounting trickery hasn’t solved the fiscal impossibility of maintaining services and meeting pension obligations in a stagnant economy. When push comes to shove, services must be cut, either by bankruptcy or negotiation. Since the likelihood that taxes will drop is zero, taxpayers will get fewer services for their taxes.

Trend #4:  Middle class income, purchasing power and discretionary income will all continue to stagnate.  Unless you define “middle class” as those households earning $150,000 and up (9.1% of households)—and if you define the top 9% as middle class, your definition has lost all meaning—what’s left of the middle class will see real and discretionary income continue to stagnate. The causes of this decline in labor’s share of the economy are structural and cannot be remedied by lowering interest rates to zero or jacking up the stock market: zero-interest rates have deprived households of income and few in the bottom 90% own enough stock to affect their wealth. (Source: The Distribution of Household Income and the Middle Class)

Trend #5: Junk fees will continue to replace legitimate taxes.  Fearful of blowback from ever-rising taxes, local governments have turned to junk fees as the preferred method of “revenue enhancement.”  These include sharply higher fees for recreation, parking tickets, permits, etc., and a multitude of add-ons to property taxes and other existing tax structures. Local authorities are counting on the taxpayers to sigh but do nothing as long as the fee increases are small enough to avoid triggering political resistance.

In our small California town, the city has raised the fees for trash pickup by more than 100% in recent years—ironically, their reason is that recycling (which they encourage) has reduced the amount of trash being collected.  This sort of nonsensical rationalization for radically higher fees will join the usual justifications, i.e. “we can no longer fill potholes and pave streets unless we raise your taxes.”

How did they manage to perform these basic services 10 or 20 years ago with much smaller budgets? The answer: see Trend #3: skyrocketing pension and healthcare costs.

Trend #6:  The African oil exporting nations will move from the back-burner to the front ranks of geopolitical flash-points, joining the South China Sea, the Mideast and North Korea. I recently discussed The Scramble for Africa's Oil and the “resource curse” that is fueling the potential for conflict over Africa’s untapped oil wealth. 

Trend #7:  Americans will continue to passively accept the rise of the Police/National Security State. This may eventually change, but for the next few years the existing motivations for passive acceptance of increasing centralization of power will continue to hold sway.

The first is complicity: the 49% of all Americans—156 million out of 317 million—who receive direct transfers/benefits from the Federal government see little reason to rock the boat or put their cash from the government at risk.  (Source)

The second reason is a rational fear of State power: fear of getting tear-gassed and arrested should you join a protest, for example, and a generalized fear of putting whatever you still have at risk by confronting a government given to secrecy and retribution against whistleblowers, protesters, etc.

Trend #8:  The Federal government will quietly absorb the rising losses from defaulting student loans rather than reveal the bankruptcy of the entire Higher Education/Student Loan Cartel.  There are myriad ways to quash the recognition that the Higher Education/Student Loan Cartel is failing to provide useful education while it burdens younger generations with $1+ trillion in high-interest debt: quietly forgive some defaulted loans, stop enforcing collection of defaulted loans, etc.  The Federal government doesn’t want to call attention to its management of this powder keg, as widespread recognition that the system is broken will unleash calls for a general debt amnesty that will blow the big-debt-for-worthless-degrees system wide apart.

In Part II: Outcomes to Bet On in 2014, we’ll forecast the most likely consequences of these trends. With such understanding comes the opportunity to position ourselves in front of them for protection and/or profit.

Click here to access Part II of this report (free executive summary; enrollment required for full access).


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/pz54lZSpRUY/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Scott Shackford on Five Ways 2013 Was America’s Gayest Year

Thousands of gay Americans will be
ringing in the new year as legally recognized married couples, part
of an irreversible, dynamic shift in growing cultural acceptance of
same-sex relationships. 2013 was a bellwether year for gays in the
United States, but it also brought to the forefront debate over the
difference between government-enforced discrimination and private
freedoms of association. Reason’s Scott Shackford looks at the
developments, victories, challenges, and what’s ahead in gay,
lesbian, bisexual, and transgender issues.

View this article.

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2013/12/31/scott-shackford-on-five-ways-2013-was-am
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World’s First Sale by a Government-Licensed Recreational Pot Shop Scheduled for 8 a.m.

The world’s very first sale by a
government-licensed recreational pot store is
scheduled
for 8 a.m. tomorrow at 3D Cannabis Center in Denver.
Somewhat confusingly, the buyer, designated by the leaders of
Colorado’s legalization campaign, will be someone who would
ordinarily be considered a medical user: Sean Azzariti, an Iraq war
veteran “who can now legally use marijuana to alleviate the
symptoms of post-traumatic disorder,” a condition that was not
covered by Colorado’s medical marijuana law. But recreational
consumers will be the main source of new business for outlets like
3D Cannabis Center, which is conveniently located at 4305 Brighton
Boulevard, on the way into town from the airport. (The “3D” refers
to the shop’s former designation: Denver’s Discreet Dispensary.)
When I interviewed 3D’s owner, Toni Fox, about a year ago, she said
she hoped her proximity to Interstates 25 and 70 would help attract
business. “I would think that I would be able to sell out of the
cannabis that I had every day,” she said, “because the demand is
going to be so great.”

Over the short term, Fox and other dispensary
owners expanding into the recreational market stand to benefit from
the shortage
that is expected to last at least until marijuana from the first
plants grown for general consumption is harvested this spring. “The
medical marijuana prices have been cut unfairly in the for-profit
market, because of the competition,” she said. “When recreational
opens up and there’s a limited supply, I don’t have a problem
resetting my prices to street value and hopefully making a profit
finally.” Under state law, dispensary owners have a three-month
head start in the licensing process. Denver, which is where most of
the pot shops will be located, has
banned
new competitors until February 1, 2016, so the existing
dispensaries have a lock on the market until then. So far 102
retailers in Denver have
received
state licenses.

Although the Justice Department has
indicated
that it will leave the pot shops alone as long as
they are strictly regulated, banks continue to worry about the
legal consequences of accepting deposits from cannabusinesses,
which could be viewed as money laundering. When she opened her
dispensary, Fox persuaded the bank she had used for her
construction business to serve her new venture, but most marijuana
retailers are not so lucky. Many are forced to deal exclusively in
cash. “I cannot help but be concerned about the safety and security
threats caused by outdated federal banking regulations,” Fox says
in a
press release
from the National Cannabis Industry Association
(NCIA). “The widespread perception that cannabis retailers hold
large amounts of cash, despite top-notch security and monitoring,
creates an inherent danger for businesses owners, employees, and
communities alike.”

Deputy Attorney General David Cole has said the
Justice Department is talking to officials at the Treasury
Departmentment’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network
(FinCEN) about how to address this problem, but so far no
solution has emerged. “Members of Congress, state regulators,
community leaders, cannabis business professionals, and even many
local banks are calling for reform to the absurd interpretations of
law that inhibit banking services for cannabis-related businesses,”

says
Betty Aldworth, the NCIA’s deputy director. “There is
absolutely no justifiable reason to allow this threat to public
safety to continue in those states where the regulated sale of
marijuana has been made legal. A lack of access to banking services
is, quite frankly, the single most dangerous thing about the legal
sale of marijuana for medical or social use. It is long past time
for FinCEN and the Justice Department to catch up with the American
public and answer the call for safe, regulated markets by allowing
banking services.”

Despite all the hardships involved in growing and selling a
product that the federal government continues to treat as
contraband, Fox is excited about Colorado’s pathbreaking
experiment. “I am so grateful to be a pioneer and to be able to
change people’s perceptions of this plant and change the world,”
she says. “We’re going to change the world by ending
prohibition.”

More on what to expect when the pot shops open here.

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2013/12/31/worlds-first-sale-by-a-government-licens
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World's First Sale by a Government-Licensed Recreational Pot Shop Scheduled for 8 a.m.

The world’s very first sale by a
government-licensed recreational pot store is
scheduled
for 8 a.m. tomorrow at 3D Cannabis Center in Denver.
Somewhat confusingly, the buyer, designated by the leaders of
Colorado’s legalization campaign, will be someone who would
ordinarily be considered a medical user: Sean Azzariti, an Iraq war
veteran “who can now legally use marijuana to alleviate the
symptoms of post-traumatic disorder,” a condition that was not
covered by Colorado’s medical marijuana law. But recreational
consumers will be the main source of new business for outlets like
3D Cannabis Center, which is conveniently located at 4305 Brighton
Boulevard, on the way into town from the airport. (The “3D” refers
to the shop’s former designation: Denver’s Discreet Dispensary.)
When I interviewed 3D’s owner, Toni Fox, about a year ago, she said
she hoped her proximity to Interstates 25 and 70 would help attract
business. “I would think that I would be able to sell out of the
cannabis that I had every day,” she said, “because the demand is
going to be so great.”

Over the short term, Fox and other dispensary
owners expanding into the recreational market stand to benefit from
the shortage
that is expected to last at least until marijuana from the first
plants grown for general consumption is harvested this spring. “The
medical marijuana prices have been cut unfairly in the for-profit
market, because of the competition,” she said. “When recreational
opens up and there’s a limited supply, I don’t have a problem
resetting my prices to street value and hopefully making a profit
finally.” Under state law, dispensary owners have a three-month
head start in the licensing process. Denver, which is where most of
the pot shops will be located, has
banned
new competitors until February 1, 2016, so the existing
dispensaries have a lock on the market until then. So far 102
retailers in Denver have
received
state licenses.

Although the Justice Department has
indicated
that it will leave the pot shops alone as long as
they are strictly regulated, banks continue to worry about the
legal consequences of accepting deposits from cannabusinesses,
which could be viewed as money laundering. When she opened her
dispensary, Fox persuaded the bank she had used for her
construction business to serve her new venture, but most marijuana
retailers are not so lucky. Many are forced to deal exclusively in
cash. “I cannot help but be concerned about the safety and security
threats caused by outdated federal banking regulations,” Fox says
in a
press release
from the National Cannabis Industry Association
(NCIA). “The widespread perception that cannabis retailers hold
large amounts of cash, despite top-notch security and monitoring,
creates an inherent danger for businesses owners, employees, and
communities alike.”

Deputy Attorney General David Cole has said the
Justice Department is talking to officials at the Treasury
Departmentment’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network
(FinCEN) about how to address this problem, but so far no
solution has emerged. “Members of Congress, state regulators,
community leaders, cannabis business professionals, and even many
local banks are calling for reform to the absurd interpretations of
law that inhibit banking services for cannabis-related businesses,”

says
Betty Aldworth, the NCIA’s deputy director. “There is
absolutely no justifiable reason to allow this threat to public
safety to continue in those states where the regulated sale of
marijuana has been made legal. A lack of access to banking services
is, quite frankly, the single most dangerous thing about the legal
sale of marijuana for medical or social use. It is long past time
for FinCEN and the Justice Department to catch up with the American
public and answer the call for safe, regulated markets by allowing
banking services.”

Despite all the hardships involved in growing and selling a
product that the federal government continues to treat as
contraband, Fox is excited about Colorado’s pathbreaking
experiment. “I am so grateful to be a pioneer and to be able to
change people’s perceptions of this plant and change the world,”
she says. “We’re going to change the world by ending
prohibition.”

More on what to expect when the pot shops open here.

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2013/12/31/worlds-first-sale-by-a-government-licens
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Apple Denies Ever Working With The NSA

Yesterday, we broke the story that during the 30th Chaos Communication Congress, it was revealed that according to the NSA (the slide in question) virtually every Apple product can be “backdoored”, and that the presenter of the discovery Jacob Applebaum openly asked Apple if it was just its “shitty software” that provided the NSA with this privacy invading loophole, or if it was Apple secretly working in collaboration with the NSA that permitted this betrayal of the iconic company’s customers.

Moments ago the WSJ reported that according to Apple, it was just the “shitty software”, as the company denied ever working with the NSA.

Somehow we doubt this will be the end of this particular story, especially since this is an implicit admission that Apple does, indeed, have “backdoors” in its products. Whether invited or not.

Perhaps as a follow up, Apple can also confirm that none of its products permit illegal backdoor access for the NSA or anyone else, especially now that the “implantation” mechanism has been made clear to the entire world?


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/_wMgO_8I90U/story01.htm Tyler Durden

WTF Chart Of The Day: Fed Soaks Up Record $200 Billion In Year End Excess Liquidity

A week ago the Fed announced its latest expansion to its Fixed-Rate Reverse Repo facility, which boosted the maximum allotment per counterparty to a whopping $3 billion from $1 billion (initially this was “only” $500 million), to wit: “this week the Committee authorized the Desk to modify the terms of the exercise.  The maximum allotment cap will be increased to $3 billion per counterparty per day from its current level of $1 billion per counterparty per day, effective with the operation on Monday, December 23, 2013.” Some wondered why. Today we got the answer, when the Fed announced that an unprecedented $198 billion (that’s 20% of a trillion) among 102 entities was reverse repoed to it (an average of just under $2 billion per counterparty) in what can only be characterized as the most grotesque temporary open market operation conducted by the Fed in history.

 

We will leave it up to readers to decide what is more surreal: that the Fed is allowing banks to “window dress” to the tune of several times more than total Treasury holdings owned by the Primary Dealers as disclosed by the Fed, or that there is an unprecedented $200 billion in free liquidity floating out there.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/m9CA6fQq4MA/story01.htm Tyler Durden

The Best And Worst Hedge Funds Of 2013

In a year when everyone was a winner (thank you Fed and BOJ) if some were bigger winners than others yet when virtually everyone underperformed the S&P, the biggest irony was that the very aptly named Keynes Leveraged Quantitative Strategies Fund was actually down -6.88% YTD and one of the 20 worst performing funds of the year. As for everyone else, hopefully their LPs are forgiving and don’t expect that in exchange for 2 and 20 that their funds would outperform the S&P for the first time in 5 years.

Best and Worst hedge funds of 2013:

The performance of select brand name hedge funds through mid/late December versus the S&P500:

And the full breakdown via HSBC:


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/KQ3etzFSIpg/story01.htm Tyler Durden

From the New York Times: Another Tiresomely Misleading Bioethical Attack on Personalized Genetic Testing

genetictestingToday, the New York
Times
has published yet another article aiming to prove to
readers that genetic testing, especially direct to consumer
testing, is useless and perhaps even misleading. In her article,
I
Had My DNA Picture Taken, With Varying Results
,” by Kira
Peikoff, a bioethics graduate student at Columbia University, takes
genotype screening tests from three different companies is,
shocked, just shocked, to discover that the results do not
all agree.

This stunt has been pulled before, most notoriously by the
Government Accountability Office (GAO) back in 2010. In my article,
A
Genetic Testing Dupe?
,” reporting on the GAO’s study, I too
noted that I had received differing results from the two testing
companies I had used. Was I misled? Not at all.

I explained that the companies tested for different allele
variants related to disease risks, which they clearly explained in
their reports to customers. In my case the two companies I used
disagreed about my risks for colorectal cancer, melanoma, and heart
disease – all of which is explained by the way the companies select
research data for determing those variant alleles for which they
test.

Ms. Peikoff, to her credit, also explains this, but then
pretends that it is somehow confusing. She then goes to on explain
that environmental exposures also play a big role in future disease
risks. Please tell us something we don’t know.

As I reported in my article, I had already had a polyp removed,
suffered a second-degree sunburn as a child, and my parents died of
heart disease, so I would be taking those facts, as well as the
genetic information the companies supplied, into account as I
thought about my disease risks.  As I concluded:

The differential tests results do not bother me, and I would be
surprised if many gene testing pioneer customers find the
information they receive all that confusing. The results are
probabilistic calculations based on a selection of low risk
susceptibility alleles. The right way to think about the current
direct-to-consumer genotype screening tests is that they are a
preliminary technology. They offer supplementary, not dispositive
information about various health risks. The tests are not perfect,
but they are the beginning of the process through which consumers,
physicians, and purveyors will learn how to better interpret and
use genetic information over time.

We are in the Apple II era of genetic testing. It would have
been silly to ban the Apple
II
just because it was not as easy to use or immediately
comprehensible as the MacBook Air. Standardization
of test results will come as more information about the interaction
between genetic variants and environmental influences accumulates.
The current tests function as training wheels for curious consumers
who will be using the whole genome and epigenetic screening tests
that will be widely and cheaply available by the end of this
decade. As one of those curious consumers, I don’t want or need
federal regulators to protect me from my own test results.

That’s still the case, although that has unfortunately not
stopped the
Food and Drug Administration from banning
direct-to-consumer
genetic testing from
23andMe
.

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2013/12/31/another-tiresomely-misleading-bioethical
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