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Someone must have had an odd sense of humor to name a conference in which the most prominent US hedge funds appear, after Robin Hood – it seems in the New Normal the prince of thieves takes from the Middle Class and gives… to himself. Snyde remarks aside, yesterday was Day 1 of the Robin Hood investor conference, with such speakers as David Einhorn and Dan Loeb putting on their best book-talking face and pitching their currently marketable ideas (which they have put on long ago and are likely selling into strength). Below is a summary of the top recommendations from Bloomberg.

• Greenlight’s Einhorn – long Micron (MU)
• Third Point’s Loeb – long Softbank (9984 JT)- owns $1b position
• Eagle’s Witmer – long Wyndham (WYN)
• Chilton’s Chilton – long WR Grace (GRA)
• Lakewood’s Bozza – short Opko Health (OPK)
• Pine River’s Kuhn – short Progressive (PGR)
• North Tide’s Laughlin – long Amedisys (AMED)
• Axel’s Nikolayevsky – long SolarCity (SCTY)
• HG Vora’s Vora – long Pinnacle (PNK)
• Maverick’s Ainslie – short Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)

But that was just an appetized for today when the big guns come out, including: Bill Ackman, Tiger’s Julian Robertson, Duquesne’s Stanley Druckenmiller, Tudor’s Paul Tudor Jones, Glenview’s Larry Robbins, JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon and… Whitney Tilson pitching African real estate?

Those interested can watch the Bloomberg TV intervews at the following times:

• Barry Sternlicht 9:40am
• Ackman 10am
• Max Levchin 11:15am
• Druckenmiller 2pm

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/XaDpIIdwo9M/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Someone must have had an odd sense of humor to name a conference in which the most prominent US hedge funds appear, after Robin Hood – it seems in the New Normal the prince of thieves takes from the Middle Class and gives… to himself. Snyde remarks aside, yesterday was Day 1 of the Robin Hood investor conference, with such speakers as David Einhorn and Dan Loeb putting on their best book-talking face and pitching their currently marketable ideas (which they have put on long ago and are likely selling into strength). Below is a summary of the top recommendations from Bloomberg.

• Greenlight’s Einhorn – long Micron (MU)
• Third Point’s Loeb – long Softbank (9984 JT)- owns $1b position
• Eagle’s Witmer – long Wyndham (WYN)
• Chilton’s Chilton – long WR Grace (GRA)
• Lakewood’s Bozza – short Opko Health (OPK)
• Pine River’s Kuhn – short Progressive (PGR)
• North Tide’s Laughlin – long Amedisys (AMED)
• Axel’s Nikolayevsky – long SolarCity (SCTY)
• HG Vora’s Vora – long Pinnacle (PNK)
• Maverick’s Ainslie – short Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)

But that was just an appetized for today when the big guns come out, including: Bill Ackman, Tiger’s Julian Robertson, Duquesne’s Stanley Druckenmiller, Tudor’s Paul Tudor Jones, Glenview’s Larry Robbins, JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon and… Whitney Tilson pitching African real estate?

Those interested can watch the Bloomberg TV intervews at the following times:

• Barry Sternlicht 9:40am
• Ackman 10am
• Max Levchin 11:15am
• Druckenmiller 2pm

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/XaDpIIdwo9M/story01.htm Tyler Durden

• Wonder why: JPMorgan plans to keep pay roughly flat from last year (Reuters) – maybe this: Charles Schwab Warns “We Are In A Manipulated Market”
• Democrats overturn filibuster rule, increasing Obama’s power (FT)
• Day JFK Died We Traded Through Tears as NYSE Shut (BBG)
• When even dictators snub Obama – Afghanistan rejects U.S. call for quick security deal (Reuters)
• Obama Plunges in Investor Poll as Stocks Make New Highs (BBG)
• Iran, six powers struggle to overcome snags in nuclear talks (Reuters)
• Derision for China’s ‘rejuvenation index’ (FT)
• Bottom is in: Paulson Said to Inform Clients He Won’t Add More to Gold (BBG)
• German business sentiment rebounds strongly (WSJ)
• WTO on verge of global trade pact (FT)
• And confirming that: Gold Analysts Most Bearish Since June on Fed Taper (BBG)
• Indonesia, Australia spy claim tension spreads to corporate world (Reuters)
• Blame Rich, Overeducated Elites as Our Society Frays (BBG)
• Bank of America Staff Quizzed as Coroner Probes Intern Death (BBG)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

* A bitterly divided Senate voted Thursday to eliminate filibusters for most presidential nominees, a momentous and politically risky step that limits the ability of Republicans to block President Obama’s choices for executive-branch and most judicial posts.

* Sales of convertible bonds are booming, as investors seeking to benefit from the roaring U.S. stock rally rush to purchase debt that can convert into shares.

* Charter Communications is nearing an agreement with banks to borrow money for a bid for Time Warner Cable , according to people familiar with the situation.

* The Dow industrials vaulted past another milestone as stocks closed above 16,000 for the first time, extending a record run fueled by optimism for a recovering global economy and continuing low interest rates.

* The U.S. plans to sell its remaining shares in General Motors by year-end, completing the final piece of the government’s controversial bailout of the nation’s largest auto maker.

* The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority is highlighting a fast-track program it began earlier this year to go after what it calls “high-risk brokers.”

* Janet Yellen’s confirmation as the next Federal Reserve chief became a virtual lock Thursday when a Senate committee approved her nomination and Senate Democrats eased the confirmation process for most presidential nominees.

* After 15 months of appeals and an eight-day retrial, a dispute between Apple Inc and Samsung Electronics Ltd over smartphone patents has come nearly full circle.

* UBS AG has reached an immunity deal with European Union antitrust authorities that will spare the giant Swiss bank from further fines for manipulation of benchmark interest rates, according to people familiar with the matter.

 

FT

Several big banks including Barclays, Citigroup and Royal Bank of Scotland have banned traders from some online chat rooms in response to investigations into alleged collusion between dealers over key financial market benchmark rates.

Goldman Sachs said on Thursday it did not suffer a loss in its currencies business in the third quarter, in an attempt to reassure investors after reports that it had suffered more than $1 billion in trading losses.

Activist investor Dan Loeb, who is pushing for change at Sony, has revealed another $1 billion plus position in Japan’s SoftBank.

The World Trade Organisation is poised to seal the first global trade deal for more than a decade, in a rare victory for the body, whose struggle to secure an international pact has increasingly undermined its relevance.

Spotify has raised about $250 million in a new funding round valuing the Swedish digital music service at more than $4 billion.

The U.S. Federal Communications Commission said it was considering plans to do away with the ‘outdated’ ban on using cell phones during flights.

 

NYT

* The Federal Communications Commission said on Thursday that it would consider changing its rules to permit the use of cellphones and other wireless-data devices during airline flights. If approved, the change is certain to delight some passengers but frustrate many others.

* Nearly 80,000 people have enrolled in health plans through California’s online marketplace, at a rate of several thousand a day in November – a sizable increase over a month ago.

* A jury on Thursday said that Samsung Electronics would have to pay Apple $290 million more in damages for violating patents, putting an end to one chapter in the long-running patent struggle between the two tech companies.

* The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell sharply last week and a gauge of factory activity hit an eight-month high in early November, hinting at some strength in the economy.

* Officials say many predatory lenders have steadily found ways around the Military Lending Act, a law that was meant to stop them.

* Janet Yellen on Thursday moved closer toward becoming the first woman to lead the Federal Reserve Board when the Senate Banking Committee sent her nomination to the full Senate with a 14-8 vote.

* Fashion retailer Vince Holding priced its stock sale at $20 a share, a dollar above its expected range. At that price, investors valued the clothing store chain at $726 million.

* A tax proposal released on Thursday by the chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, Max Baucus, addresses a topic that tends to make my students’ eyes glaze over: cost recovery.

* SAC’s chief financial officer said that portfolio managers were rewarded special “Cohen tag bonuses” for ideas that translated into windfall gains.

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

* Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper is denying any knowledge of a one-time plan for the Conservative Party to repay Mike Duffy’s expense claims, even though police documents suggest the Prime Minister gave some sort of approval for arrangements with Duffy at the time t
he party payment was being negotiated.

* The U.S. government plans to sell its remaining General Motors Co shares by the end of the year, an announcement that helped the two Canadian provincial governments that joined Washington in bailing out GM move closer to breaking even on their investment.

Reports in the business section:

* Canada is giving U.S. discounter Target Corp the cold shoulder, and the snub is dragging down the retailer’s overall results.

* Saudi Prince al-Waleed bin Talal, who was in Toronto last week to meet with hotel executives, is pressing Four Seasons Hotels Inc and the parent company of Fairmont Hotels & Resorts Inc to look at options such as merging or going public.

NATIONAL POST

* Just three days after having his mayoral powers sharply restricted, a frustrated Rob Ford suggested to his budget chief that he thinks the “gravy train” is rolling back into Toronto city hall.

* A police investigation that four years ago saw allegations that key players in the Ontario justice system were conspiring to obstruct justice has fizzled out with admissions that the police investigators themselves were routinely breaking the law.

FINANCIAL POST

* When Cliffs Natural Resources suspended the Ring of Fire project that had promised to bring jobs and prosperity to the city of Thunder Bay, it proved what local authorities already know: Economic growth in the mining industry is hard to predict and even harder to plan for.

* The dramatic restructuring underway at Canadian Pacific has been a boon for investors but appears to be ruffling the feathers of some of the railway’s customers.

 

China

 

CHINA SECURITIES JOURNAL

– The reform of
capital market should stick to the direction of marketisation and
internationalisation, said Xiao Gang, chairman of China Securities
Regulatory Commission. It is a priority to enhance the competitiveness
of the financial institutions, he added.

– The property market
will be regulated through the development of comprehensive data systems
in the future, said Wang Juelin, a fellow of the policy research centre
under the ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the China.

CHINA DAILY

–
The rate of industrial capacity utilisation in China in the first half
of 2013 stood at 78 percent on average, the lowest since the fourth
quarter of 2009, the National Bureau of Statistics said. Analysts
believe the rate will continue to dip if the government does not
intervene to cut overcapacity.

– A number of large state-owned
enterprises (SOEs) facing heavy losses are rushing to sell assets to
make up for their deficits and avoid getting delisted from the stock
market. However, analysts said the moves may not be enough to reverse
the long-term downturn faced by SOEs in sunset industries.

SHANGHAI DAILY

–
China will encourage spending via online channels and targets a
transaction volume of 18 trillion yuan ($2.95 trillion) by 2015 as the
country focuses on moving toward a consumption-powered economy from an
investment-driven one.

 

 

Fly On The Wall 7:00 AM Market Snapshot

ANALYST RESEARCH

Upgrades

Aruba Networks (ARUN) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Needham
Bon-Ton Stores (BONT) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse
Dollar Tree (DLTR) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays
ECA Marcellus (ECT) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James
GameStop (GME) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Needham
Insulet (PODD) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James
PartnerRe (PRE) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS
United Continental (UAL) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman
United Financial (UBNK) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Sterne Agee
VeriFone (PAY) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies
Yum! Brands (YUM) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank

Downgrades

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo
Everest Re (RE) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS
Gogo (GOGO) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan
Liquidity Services (LQDT) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Janney Capital
Nucor (NUE) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo
Sappi Ltd. (SPP) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse
Take-Two (TTWO) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Cowen
Target (TGT) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
U.S. Steel (X) downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo
Violin Memory (VMEM) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank
Violin Memory (VMEM) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan

Initiations

AMC Networks (AMCX) initiated with a Buy at Goldman
Bonanza Creek (BCEI) initiated with a Hold at MLV & Co.
Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO) initiated with a Buy at MLV & Co.
Covanta (CVA) initiated with an In-Line at Imperial Capital
EPL Oil & Gas (EPL) initiated with a Hold at MLV & Co.
Energy XXI (EXXI) initiated with a Buy at MLV & Co.
Gaming and Leisure Properties (GLPI) initiated with an Outperform at RBC Capital
Gulfport Energy (GPOR) initiated with a Hold at MLV & Co.
Halcon Resources (HK) initiated with a Hold at MLV & Co.
Midstates Petroleum (MPO) initiated with a Buy at MLV & Co.
PDC Energy (PDCE) initiated with a Buy at MLV & Co.
QIWI (QIWI) initiated with a Buy at Goldman
Rackspace (RAX) initiated with a Neutral at DA Davidson
Sanchez Energy (SN) initiated with a Buy at MLV & Co.
Silicon Graphics (SGI) initiated with a Neutral at DA Davidson
Silicon Motion (SIMO) initiated with a Buy at BofA/Merrill
Stone Energy (SGY) initiated with a Buy at MLV & Co.
Stonegate Mortgage (SGM) initiated with an Overweight at Barclays
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) initiated with a Buy at DA Davidson
Teleflex (TFX) initiated with a Buy at Brean Capital
Tribune Co. (TRBAA) initiated with an Outperform at Oppenheimer
Virtus Investment Partners (VRTS) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman
ZELTIQ Aesthetics (ZLTQ) initiated with a Buy at Cantor

HOT STOCKS

Volkswagen (VLKAY) to invest EUR 84.2B in automotive unit over five years
Wal-Mart (WMT) lowered free shipping minimum for holidays, matches Amazon (AMZN)
Intel (INTC) sees PC group FY14 revenue down in mid-single digits, Bloomberg reports
Novartis (NVS) announced $5B share repurchase program
Gap (GPS) announced $1B share repurchase authorization, sees Q4 results negatively impacted from foreign currency headwinds
Kaman (KAMN) announced new agreement with Boeing (BA)
UPS (UPS) to raise rates an average net of 4.9% for 2104
Williams (WMB) expects to increase dividend in FY14, FY15 by 20%
Boyd Gaming (BYD) to begin online gaming testing in New Jersey

EARNINGS

Companies that beat consensus earnings expectations last night and today include:
Berry Plastics (BERY), Mentor Graphics (MENT), Aruba Networks (ARUN), Marvell (MRVL), Splunk (SPLK), Haynes (HAYN), Autodesk (ADSK), Intuit (INTU), Gap (GPS)

Companies that missed consensus earnings expectations include:
The Fresh Market (TFM), Textura (TXTR), Violin Memory (VMEM)

Companies that matched consensus earnings expectations include:
Geospace (GEOS), Natural Grocers (NGVC), Ross Stores (ROST), Pandora (P)

NEWSPAPERS/WEBSITES

• Under pressure from Washington to crack down on rogue stockbrokers, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority is highlighting a fast-track pr
  ogram it began earlier this year to go after what it calls “high-risk brokers,” the Wall Street Journal reports
• Federal investigators are probing a subsidiary of Caterpillar (CAT) to determine whether it was dumping train parts into the ocean near the Port of Long Beach, CA, as part of a possible scheme to bill railroad companies for unneeded repairs, sources say, the Wall Street Journal reports
• Many prominent managers at the Reuters 2014 Global Investment Outlook Summit believe the record-setting run-up in U.S. stocks is due for a reckoning but acknowledge that ample liquidity could push equities higher regardless of fears, Reuters reports
• Delta Air Lines (DAL) said it would not allow cellphone use even if the FCC approves it, citing an “overwhelming sentiment” in customer feedback against voice calls in flight. United Continental (UAL) and Southwest Airlines (LUV) also said their customers have expressed concerns, Reuters reports
• JPMorgan Chase’s (JPM) record $13B deal to end mortgage bond probes has terms that undermine U.S. efforts to reduce taxpayer support of the market, according to BlackRock (BLK), Bloomberg reports
• Banks should avoid large acquisitions “until the dust settles” from deals done during the financial crisis, U.S. Bancorp (USB) CEO Richard Davis said, citing costs that can come years later, Bloomberg reports

SYNDICATE

Agree Realty (ADC) files to sell 1.65M shares of common stock
Cache (CACH) files to sell 3.56M common shares for holders
Hi-Crush Partners (HCLP) files to sell 708k shares of common units
Ideal Power (IPWR) 3M share IPO priced at $5.00
Luxoft (LXFT) 2.8M share Secondary priced at $34.00
NTELOS (NTLS) files to sell 1.5M shares of common stock for holders
National Health Investors (NHI) 4.5M share Secondary priced at $57.00
Nielsen (NLSN) files to sell 30M shares of common stock for holders
Nordic American Tanker (NAT) files to sell $65M in common stock
RiT Technologies (RITT) 3M share Secondary priced at $2.00
Sungy Mobile (GOMO) 7M share IPO priced at $11.22

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/OhJWfkGDEbo/story01.htm Tyler Durden

There were two events of note in the overnight session: first was the return of the Japanese jawboning, because now that the Nikkei has upward momentum – nearly hitting 15600 in early trading only to close unchanged – and the Yen has downward momentum, the Abe, Kuroda, Amari trio will do everything to talk Mrs. Watanabe to accelerate the momentum. In this case BoJ Governor Kuroda said he does not think JPY is at abnormally low levels and consumer inflation likely to hit 2% by fiscal year to March 2016. Kuroda also said he does not think JPY is excessively weak or in a bubble now and JPY has corrected from excessive strength after Lehman. This also means look forward to the daily bevy of Japanese speaker headlines in overnight trading to push the USDJPY and EURJPY higher on an ad hoc basis. The other notable event was the German IFO Business climate which jumped from 107.4 to 109.3, beating expectations of 107.7 and in the process pushing the EUR notably higher, and particularly the EURJPY which moved from 136.30 to nearly 137 or a fresh four year high. At this point European exporters must be tearing their hair out, as must the ECB whose every effort to talk the Euro lower has been met with relentless export-crushing buying.

Elsewhere in Asia, the Chinese bank regulator is said to require banks to report detailed wealth management product holdings and transaction information from 2014 sources. According to sources citing an unidentified PBOC official who has an involvement in monetary policy but not decision making said that the PBOC is to continue to force banks to deleverage and will mainly use higher money market interest rates to push banks to reduce leverage. China’s financial regulators are preparing new rules to crack down on explosive growth in complex interbank transactions used to evade lending restrictions according to sources. China president to promote allies in sweeping reshuffle, according to sources. The reshuffle would allow Xi who is also party and military chief, to deepen his power base and counter opposition to the bold reforms unveiled this month at the third plenum of the party’s leaders.

The US event docket is quiet with Fed speakers George and Tarullo set to appear later, while the JOLTS survey will confirm or deny recent trends in the BLS report. Mario Draghi will also speak at the 23rd European Banking Congress.

US event calendar:

• US: Fed speakers – George (8:40), Tarullo (12:15)

Market Recap from RanSquawk

Stocks traded mixed in Europe, with health care outperforming after SMI listed Novartis announced that it is  starting a USD 5bln share buyback program. In spite of the somewhat lacklustre performance by equity markets this morning, Bunds traded lower, underpinned by the release of much better than expected German IFO survey, which also encouraged broad based EUR supportive flows. Consequent EUR strength saw the major pair reclaim the 1.3500 level, while EUR/JPY advanced towards the 137.00 level, touted option barrier level. At the same time, in spite of a weaker USD, AUD remained under pressure, as market participants continued to fret over potential intervention by the RBA and also digested source comments citing an unidentified PBOC official who has an involvement in monetary policy but not decision making, stating that the PBOC is to continue to force banks to deleverage and will mainly use higher money market interest rates to push banks to reduce leverage, which resulted in the Australian 10y yield surging to its highest level since November 2011 during the overnight session. Going forward, market participants will get to digest the release of the latest Canadian CPI and Retail Sales reports.

Overnight news bulletin from Bloomberg and Ransquawk

• BoJ Governor Kuroda said he does not think JPY is at abnormally low levels and consumer inflation likely to hit 2% by fiscal year to March 2016.
• German business confidence rose to 109.3 in November (est. 107.7) from 107.4 in October, the highest since April 2012
• BOE chief economist Spencer Dale said the central bank will raise interest rates when it’s seen a “sustained recovery and the economy is strong enough to stand it. The message we’ve been giving to businesses is that we don’t think that’s anytime soon”
• CME cuts initial margins for crude oil, gold futures.
• Treasuries 5Y and longer headed for weekly loss while 2Y and 3Y posting gains as expectations for strengthened forward guidance and QE tapering as early as next month spur curve steepening.
• The ECB said it would suspend early repayment of 3-yr LTROs for the year-end period; last repay will be settled Dec. 23, those scheduled for Dec. 30 and Jan. 8 won’t occur, will resume on Jan. 15
• RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said that while the central bank has been unconvinced about the effectiveness of trying to drive down AUD, he remains “open-minded” on currency intervention
• BOJ’s Kuroda, speaking in Parliament, said he does not think the yen is “excessively weak”
• Europe’s biggest banks, led by Lloyds Banking Group Plc and Deutsche Bank AG, have racked up more than $77b in legal costs since the financial crisis, five times their combined profit last year
• Global investors’ confidence in Obama plunged during the past two months after the government shutdown, a new poll shows, even as stocks traded at record highs and bond yields remained near historic lows
• Talks aimed at resolving the dispute over Iran’s nuclear program resumed today with EU chief diplomat Catherine Ashton seeking to win backing from the six powers attending for an interim deal
• Sovereign yields mostly higher, EU peripheral spreads narrow. Asian stocks mixed, European stocks fall, U.S. equity-index futures mostly lower. WTI crude lower, copper little changed, gold higher

 

Asian Headlines

BoJ Governor Kuroda said he does not think JPY is at abnormally low levels and consumer inflation likely to hit 2% by fiscal year to March 2016. Kuroda also said he does not think JPY is excessively weak or in a bubble now and JPY has corrected from excessive strength after Lehman.

China bank regulator to require banks to report detailed wealth management product holdings and transaction information from 2014 sources.

– According to sources citing an unidentified PBOC official who has an involvement in monetary policy but not decision making said that the PBOC is to continue to force banks to deleverage and will mainly use higher money market interest rates to push banks to reduce leverage.

– China’s financial regulators are preparing new rules to crack down on explosive growth in complex interbank transactions used to evade lending restrictions according to sources.

China president to promote allies in sweeping reshuffle, according to sources. The reshuffle would allow Xi who is also party and military chief, to deepen his power base and counter opposition to the bold reforms unveiled this month at the third plenum of the party’s leaders.

EU & UK Headlines

German IFO Business Climate (Nov) M/M 109.3 vs Exp. 107.7 (Prev. 107.4)
– German IFO Current Assessment (Nov) M/M 112.2 vs Exp. 111.5 (Prev. 111.3)
– IFO Expectations (Nov) M/M 106.3 vs Exp. 104.0 (Prev. 103.6)

Goldman raises 2014 euro zone growth forecast to 1.1% from 0.9%.

ECB suspends early repayments of 3-year LTROs during year-end holiday, adding that the fact that LTRO repayment suspension is also due to concentration of other operations. As such, the last 2013 LTRO repayment to settle Dec 23.

– Analysts at BNP Paribas note that large ECB LTRO repayment may be seen on Dec-23rd before year-end suspension could result in volatility in EONIA fixing and also short-end of the curve

Of note, the 3-month Euribor Interest rate fixed at
0.223% vs. Prev. 0.217%, as market participants were forced to reprice probability of the ECB introducing negative deposit rates after Draghi downplayed such a move when he spoke yesterday.

As a guide, Sueddeutsche Zeitung reported that Greek PM Samaras is expected to ask for a lightening of his country’s huge debt when he meets German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin on today.

Barclays month-end extensions: Euro Aggr (+0.04y)

Barclays month-end extensions: Sterling Aggr (+0.06y)

US Headlines

A bitterly divided Senate voted yesterday to eliminate filibusters for most presidential nominees, step that limits the ability of Republicans to block President Obama’s choices for executive-branch and most judicial posts. Barclays month-end extensions: Treasuries (+0.10) – Of note, although the avg. is around 0.06y, larger than avg. increase had been expected given the 3y, 10y and 30y refunding auctions last week.

Equities

Stocks failed to benefit from the release of better than expected German IFO report, as market participants were seen booking profits after the Dow Jones closed above the key 16,000 points mark for first time ever yesterday. As a result, stocks traded mixed, with health care outperforming after SMI listed Novartis announced that it is starting a USD 5bln share buyback program.

FX

EUR gained ground across the board following the release of much better than expected German IFO report. Consequent trigger of buy stops on the break of 1.3500 level, as well as option related flow linked to touted barrier in EUR/JPY at 137.00, ensured that the pair was able to hold onto gains even as risk on sentiment subsided.

In spite of a weaker USD, AUD remained under pressure, as market participants continued to fret over potential intervention by the RBA and also digested source comments citing an unidentified PBOC official who has an involvement in monetary policy but not decision making, stating that the PBOC is to continue to force banks to deleverage and will mainly use higher money market interest rates to push banks to reduce leverage.

NZD is also seen weaker, after RBNZ’s McDermott said NZD is overvalued and little monetary policy can do about FX rate.

McDermott said would like to see lower exchange rate, but added that intervention unlikely to sustainable lower NZD.

Commodities

CME lowers crude oil futures NYMEX (CL) initial margins for specs by 9.1% to USD 3,740/Contract from USD 4,070.
– Lowers COMEX 100 gold futures (GC) initial margins for specs by 9.4% to USd 7,975/contract from USD 8,800.
– Lowers COMEX 5000 silver futures (SI) initial margins for specs by 11.1% to USD 11,000/contract from USD 12,375.
– Lowers COMEX copper futures (HG) initial margins for specs by 14.3% to USD 3,300/contract from USD 3,850.
– Lowers COMEX RBOB gasoline futures (RB) initial margins for specs by 5.6% to USD 4,675/contract from USD 4,950.

Iran expects its crude oil exports to China will stabilize despite political pressure from the US and a drop in shipments so far this year according to executive at Iran’s state oil company

Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif says enrichment will always remain part of a deal, considerable progress in talks made and sides will continue negotiating differences.

Germany cuts gold holdings by 3.421 tonnes to 3,387.247 tonnes in October according to IMF data. Data shows Turkey gold holdings up for fourth straight month.

China to start interbank gold swap trading on November 25th, gold swaps to trade on China Foreign Exchange Trade System, to Settle and deliver via Shanghai Gold Exchange.

SocGen summarizes the key macro developments

Only time will tell whether the market is over-reacting to the largely priced-in message of the Fomc minutes by pushing the UST 10y yield over 2.80% and EM currencies into a tailspin, but the contrast with the benign reaction to Yellen’s dovish signal a week ago could not be greater. The steepening of the US 2y/10y curve through the August high of 253bp leaves it only 25bp away from the 2009 high, a level that should be reached comfortably if strong incoming US data raise the suspense of earlier Fed tapering. It underlines the fact that the message of forward guidance has been understood by the market, but low rates for longer does not bring relief for currencies where correlation with the US 10y yield is strong. As USD/BRL gapped higher at the open, we cast our mind back to 2012 when similar price action propelled the pair 5.5% higher in subsequent weeks. From the current level, that implies a rally above 2.40. The pressure is on the BCB next week to deliver a rate hike.

In Europe, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is a step closer to forming a new government after accepting the Social Democratic Party’s (SPD) minimum wage demand. This has been the bone of contention between Merkel’s party and the SPD and the differences threatened a possibility of ‘fresh elections’ during the week. Merkel’s move comes as a positive for the EUR. The German IFO survey today is expected to be a mixed bag with business climate dropping slightly to 107.3. A positive surprise is not ruled however out after a gain in the manufacturing PMI to 52.5. This would help to support bullish momentum in EUR/AUD and EUR/JPY after ECB president Draghi yesterday advised investors not to infer negative deposit rates. Draghi is slated to speak again this morning at 09:30 CET.

We conclude the overnight recap with DB’s Jim Reid

Also getting more expensive are equities with the Dow closing above 16000 for the first time and the S&P 500 (+0.81%) closing just shy of 1800 at 1796. Indeed according to Bloomberg data, the Dow and S&P500 are trading at their highest P/Es in almost four years while the Dow Jones is trading at its lowest dividend yield in 6 years. Both the Dow and S&P500 have managed to erase their losses incurred over the first half of this week, including those caused by a  relatively hawkish set of FOMC minutes on Wednesday. This came despite a number of earnings and outlook downgrades from US retailers yesterday including Target (-3.5%) and Dollar Tree (-4.5%) – coming exactly one week before Black Friday that marks the traditional start of holiday season sales. The weakest Philly Fed survey since May (6.5 vs 19.8 prior and 15.0 expected) saw equities rally on the hope that it may reduce the chances of a 2013 Fed taper. This survey seemed to confirm a weaker patch for manufacturing following a similarly soft Empire Fed survey from earlier in the month. But it was slightly at odds with yesterday’s Markit PMI which rose to 54.3 in November from 51.8 in October. Initial jobless claims for the week of November 16, which correspond to the survey period for November payrolls, fell -21k to 323k (vs 335k expected) after the prior week was revised up +5k to 344k. Yesterday’s claims data leaves DB’s Joe Lavorgna positive on November’s payrolls which he expects will come in at +185k. October PPI was pretty much in line with consensus (+0.3% YoY).

The release of the Philly Fed survey provided some respite for treasuries where 10 year yields had reached an intraday high of 2.83%, the highest level for two months. Yields rallied to close about 1.5bp lower at 2.78% and outperformed relative to what was a weaker day for European government bonds. Indeed, European markets underperformed their American counterparts across equities, credit and rates yesterday as Europe reacted to a confluence of factors including the FOMC minutes from late Wednesday; a disappointing round of flash Euroarea PMIs and Draghi downplaying recent Bloomberg reports that the ECB is considering negative rates. Elsewhere the US Senate Banking Committee affirmed Janet Yellen’s nomination 14 votes to 8, as was largely expected, and there was talk that the final senate vote will be held on week of Dec 9
th.

Turning to Asia, Japanese equities were once again leading Asian bourses higher following the recent rise in USDJPY (+1.1% yesterday) but some of those gains have been pared. There are also some company-specific stories behind today’s rise. This includes Sharp Corp, which is up 7% on reports that it will begin producing smartphone panels for companies outside of Apple; and Softbank which is up 3% on reports that a well-known US activist investor has disclosed a $1bn stake. Other Asian equities are trading around 0.25% to 0.5% higher. In China, there are more reports of a squeeze in China’s funding markets including headlines suggesting that some Chinese banks will suspend mortgage approvals from November onwards and that the country’s financial regulators are preparing new rules to crack down on the growth in complex interbank transactions used to get around lending restrictions (Bloomberg). There are also reports that the PBoC will continue to request that banks deleverage into year end.

Looking at the day ahead, the European data docket will be highlighted by German IFO and Italian retail sales There’s a few central bank speakers including Draghi who speaks at the 23rd European Banking Congress. In the US, the Fed’s Bullard will be speaking and the JOLTs labour report is also scheduled today.

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Submitted by Brandon Smith of Alt-Market blog,

It is often said there only two kinds of people in this world: those who know, and those who don’t. I would expand on this and say that there are actually three kinds of people: those who know, those who don’t know, and those who don’t care to know. Members of the last group are the kind of people I would characterize as “sheeple.”

Sheeple are members of a culture or society who are not necessarily oblivious to the reality of their surroundings; they may have been exposed to valuable truths on numerous occasions. However, when confronted with facts contrary to their conditioned viewpoint, they become aggressive and antagonistic in their behavior, seeking to dismiss and attack the truth by attacking the messenger and denying reason.  Sheeple exist on both sides of America's false political paradigm, and they exist in all social "classes".  In fact, the "professional class" and the hierarchy of academia are rampant breeding grounds for sheeple; who I sometimes refer to as "intellectual idiots".  Doctors and lawyers, scientists and politicians are all just as prone to the sheeple plague as anyone else; the only difference is that they have a bureaucratic apparatus behind them which gives them a false sense of importance.  All they have to do is tow the establishment line, and promote the establishment view.

Of course the common argument made by sheeple is that EVERYONE thinks everyone else is blind to the truth, which in their minds, somehow vindicates their behavior.  However, the characteristic that absolutely defines a sheeple is not necessarily a lack of knowledge, but an unwillingness to consider or embrace obvious logic or truth in order to protect their egos and biases from harm.  A sheeple's mindset is driven by self centered motives.

So-called mainstream media outlets go out of their way to reinforce this aggressive mindset by establishing the illusion that sheeple are the “majority” and that the majority perception (which has been constructed by the MSM) is the only correct perception.

Many liberty movement activists have noted recently that there has been a surge in media propaganda aimed at painting the survival, preparedness and liberty cultures as “fringe,” “reactionary,” “extremist,” “conspiracy-minded,” etc. National Geographic’s television show “Doomsday Preppers” appears to have been designed specifically to seek out the worst possible representatives of the movement and parade their failings like a carnival sideshow. Rarely do they give focus to the logical arguments regarding why their subjects become preppers, nor do they normally choose subjects who can explain as much in a coherent manner. This is a very similar tactic used by the establishment media at large-scale protests; they generally attempt to interview the least-eloquent and easiest-to-ridicule person present and make that person a momentary mascot for the entire group and the philosophy they hold dear.

The goal is to give sheeple comfort that they are “normal” and that anyone who steps outside the bounds of the mainstream is “abnormal” and a welcome target for the collective.

It would appear that the life of a sheeple is a life of relative bliss. The whole of the establishment machine seems engineered to make them happy and the rest of us miserable. But is a sheeple’s existence the ideal? Are they actually happy in their ignorance? Are they truly safe within the confines of the system? Here a just a few reasons why you should feel sorry for them.

Sheeple Are Nothing Without The Collective

A sheeple gathers his entire identity from the group. He acts the way he believes the group wants him to act. He thinks the way he believes the group wants him to think. All of his “ideas” are notions pre-approved by the mainstream. All of his arguments and talking points are positions he heard from the media, or academia, and he has never formed an original opinion in his life. Without the group telling him what to do, the average sheeple is lost and disoriented. When cast into a crisis situation requiring individual initiative, he panics or becomes apathetic, waiting for the system to come and save him rather than taking care of himself. Sheeple are so dependent on others for every aspect of their personality and their survival that when faced with disaster, they are the most likely people to curl up and die.

Sheeple Crave Constant Approval From Others

Sheeple are not only reliant on the collective for their identity and their survival; they also need a steady supplement of approval from others in order to function day to day. When a sheeple leaves his home, he is worried about how his appearance is perceived, how his attitude is perceived, how his lifestyle is perceived and how his opinions are perceived. Everything he does from the moment his day begins revolves around ensuring that the collective approves of him. Even his acts of “rebellion” are often merely approved forms of superficial “individualism” reliant on style rather than substance. This approval becomes a kind of emotional drug to which the sheeple is addicted. He will never make waves among the herd or stand out against any aspect of the herd worldview, because their approval sustains and cements his very existence. To take collective approval away from him would be like cutting off a heroin junky’s supplier. To be shunned by the group would destroy him psychologically.

Sheeple Are Incapable Of Original Creativity

Because sheeple spend most of their waking moments trying to appease the collective, they rarely, if ever, have the energy or inclination to create something of their own. Sheeple do not make astonishing works of art. They do not achieve scientific discovery. They do not make history through philosophical or ideological innovation.  Instead, they regurgitate the words of others and hijack ideas from greater minds.  They remain constant spectators in life, watching change from the bleachers, caught in the tides of time and tossed about like congealed satellites of Pacific Ocean garbage from the after-wash of Fukushima. The destiny of the common sheeple is entirely determined by the outcome of wars and restorations waged by small groups of aware individuals — some of them good, some of them evil.

Sheeple Have No Passion

If you draw all of your beliefs from what the collective deems acceptable, then it is difficult, if not impossible, to become legitimately passionate about them. Sheeple have little to no personal connection to their ideals or principles; so they become mutable, empty and uninspired. They tend to turn toward cynicism as a way to compensate, making fun of everything, especially those who ARE passionate about something. The only ideal that they will fight for is the collective itself, because who they are is so intertwined with the survival of the system. To threaten the concept of the collective is to threaten the sheeple’s existence by extension.

Sheeple Are Useless

The average sheeple does not learn how to be self-reliant because it is considered “abnormal” by the mainstream to be self-reliant. The collective and the state are the provider. They are mother and father. Sheeple have full faith that the system will protect them from any and all harm. When violence erupts, they cower and hide instead of defending themselves and others. When large-scale catastrophe strikes, they either sit idle waiting for the state to save them or they join yet another irrationa
l mob. They do not take proactive measures, because they never felt the need to learn how.

Consider this: Why do the mainstream and the people subject to it care if others prepare for disaster or end their dependency on the establishment? Why are they so desperate to attack those of us who find our own path? If the system is so effective and the collective so correct in its methodology, then individualists are hurting only themselves by walking away, right? But for the sheeple, successfully self-reliant individuals become a constant reminder of their own inadequacies. They feel that if they cannot survive without the system, NO ONE can survive without the system; and they will make sure that individualists never prove otherwise. “You didn’t build that” becomes the sheeple motto, as they scratch and scrape like spoiled children, trying to dismantle the momentum of independent movements and ventures in non-participation.

Sheeple Are Easily Forgotten

To live a life of endless acceptance is to live a life of meaningless obscurity. When one arrives at his deathbed, does he want to reflect on all of his regrets or all of his accomplishments? Most of us would rather find joy than sadness when looking back over our past. For sheeple, though, this will not be possible — for what have they ever done besides conform? What will they have left behind except a world worse off than when they were born? What will they have accomplished, but more pain and struggle for future generations? In the end, what have their lives really been worth?

I cannot imagine a torture more vicious and terrifying than to realize in the face of one’s final days that one wasted his entire life trying to please the plethora of idiots around him, instead of educating them and himself and molding tomorrow for the better. I cannot imagine a punishment more severe than to spend the majority of one’s years as a slave without even knowing it. I cannot imagine an existence more deserving of pity and remorse than that of the sheeple.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/SjFyS72QI4o/story01.htm Tyler Durden

It’s a great headline, and for sure, it should have you running to sidelines tomorrow.  But it is far from scary especially if you look at the data.  I do agree with the premise — when everyone is all in, there is no one left to buy, and oops!, air pockets are created.  More specifically, the chart I am referencing is the one of the Investor Intelligence data shown in this article.  Yes, the percentage of bears is low  — very low.  In fact, it is the lowest value since 1987 about 5 months before the “crash”.  But what does it really mean?  Is it really the scariest chart for stock bulls ever?  What does the data say?

So let’s define a simple study where we buy the SP500 when the Investor Intelligence data shows less than 15% bears from its respondents. In the first study, we will hold our position for 13 weeks, and then we will look at a 26 week holding period.

13 week holding period

To evaluate the efficiency of each study, we will look at the Maximum Favorable Excursion (MFE) graph. See figure 1 for this study’s MFE graph. MFE measures how much an individual trade gains in percentage terms before being closed out for a winning or losing trade. As an example, see the single trade inside the blue box in figure 1. This trade was initiated on November 5, 1976. It gained 6.59% (x-axis) before being closed out for a 1.05% (y-axis) winner 13 weeks later. We know it was a winning trade because the caret is green. This is not a particularly efficient way to make money — that is, to make nearly 7% and see it all evaporate into a 1% winner. But this isn’t our point here. What the MFE graph shows us is that there were 10 trades or instances over the past 40 years where the number of bears dropped below 15%. Utilizing the 13 week holding period resulted in 80% winners. 7 trades had a run-up greater than 5.5%; this would be those trades to the right of the blue vertical line. 4 trades gained over 9.5% during the 13 week holding period, and these are to right of the orange line. In data not shown, I can tell you that 80% of the trades had drawdowns less than 4%. The worst single trade drawdown was 7.2%.

Figure 1. MFE graph

26 week holding period

Now let’s change the holding period to 26 weeks. The MFE graph for this study is shown in figure 2. Extending the holding period produced 2 less trades. 6 out of 8 trades were winners with all 6 of those trades gaining more than 9% at some point over the 26 week holding period; these are the trades to right of the blue line. In data not shown, 7 out of 8 trades had drawdowns less than 4%. There was one trade that had a “mega” drawdown of 8.5%.

 

Figure 2. MFE graph

 

So what does the data show when there are an extreme low number of Investor Intelligence bears? Over 13 and 26 week time periods, I would say that it is pretty favorable for equities. No guarantees of course. But certainly no reason to run for the hills either.

 

VISIT TACTICAL-BETA

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