iftttwall

With the WTI-Brent spread at 8-month wides, RINs having collapsed, and US investors buoyed by gas prices at the pump near recent lows, the surge in crude oil prices today – by their most since October 2nd – may take some of the ‘tax-cut’ punch from the party (remember gas prices are still 11.4% above recent seasonal norms). The 2% jump in WTI (and 1.85% rise in Brent over the last 2 days) may have only pushed it back to one-week highs but breaks a trend of lower prices that many have hoped would persist. Desk chatter is that much of this move is a re-up of middle-east premia as Iran’s nuclear negotiator says no deal today.

 

 

Bear in mind that despite the euphoria over lower gas prices, they are still 11.4% above seasonal norms of the last 5 years…

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/26aylzOQv6c/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Frustrated by constant republican opposition to pass Obama candidate nominations, Harry Reid may finally invoke the “nuclear option” and end the GOP’s ability to filibuster nominees. Politico reports that this may take place as soon as today. Politico reports: “Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid may move toward a historic change in the Senate rules to eliminate the filibuster on most nominations as soon as Thursday, according to senior Democratic aides. Reid is strongly considering calling up one in a group of blocked nominees to the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals for another round of votes, furious that Republicans have thwarted the nominations of Robert Wilkins, Nina Pillard and Patricia Millette. If a second go-round fails on that judicial pick, Reid would likely unilaterally move to change the rules of the Senate by a majority vote — the “nuclear option,” Senate sources said.” This is not the first time Reid has threatened to go nuclear: “Privately, Senate Democratic leaders insist they prefer confirmation of Obama’s nominees rather than a rules change. And lawmakers have been at this point before.” However, it appears that this time he means business.

Bloomberg adds some additional quotes from the Nevada Senator for color:

• REID SAYS `AMERICAN PEOPLE BELIEVE CONGRESS IS BROKEN’
• REID SAYS HE AGREES THAT SENATE IS BROKEN
• REID SAYS OBSTRUCTION OF NOMINEES `UNPRECEDENTED’
• REID SAYS CONFIRMATION OF NOMINEES IS `UNWORKABLE’

What happens next:

The rules change being discussed among top Democrats would eliminate filibusters on all executive nominees as well as all judicial nominees, except those to the Supreme Court. Such a rules change would pave the path toward smoother confirmation for two more key Obama nominees: Janet Yellen to lead the Federal Reserve and Jeh Johnson to helm the Department of Homeland Security.

Still, Reid’s strategy may backfire if and when the republicans regain majority of the Senate:

Republicans are publicly warning that the change would simply be a path to eliminating the filibuster on everything, even on legislation — which would mean when the GOP takes the majority, Democrats will regret pushing the nuke button.

 

“You always have to take it seriously. I just think it would be incredibly short-sighted,” said Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, the Republican whip. “It just seems to be something they keep coming back to when [Democrats] don’t get their way.”

Then again, since Congress long lost control of a nation whose entire future hangs in the balance of the daily S&P closing print, what Reid or his peers do, is largely irrelevant, especially since Mr. Chairwoman just got the green light to get to work and make Congress even more irrelevant.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/ct5lk0W22jQ/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Frustrated by constant republican opposition to pass Obama candidate nominations, Harry Reid may finally invoke the “nuclear option” and end the GOP’s ability to filibuster nominees. Politico reports that this may take place as soon as today. Politico reports: “Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid may move toward a historic change in the Senate rules to eliminate the filibuster on most nominations as soon as Thursday, according to senior Democratic aides. Reid is strongly considering calling up one in a group of blocked nominees to the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals for another round of votes, furious that Republicans have thwarted the nominations of Robert Wilkins, Nina Pillard and Patricia Millette. If a second go-round fails on that judicial pick, Reid would likely unilaterally move to change the rules of the Senate by a majority vote — the “nuclear option,” Senate sources said.” This is not the first time Reid has threatened to go nuclear: “Privately, Senate Democratic leaders insist they prefer confirmation of Obama’s nominees rather than a rules change. And lawmakers have been at this point before.” However, it appears that this time he means business.

Bloomberg adds some additional quotes from the Nevada Senator for color:

• REID SAYS `AMERICAN PEOPLE BELIEVE CONGRESS IS BROKEN’
• REID SAYS HE AGREES THAT SENATE IS BROKEN
• REID SAYS OBSTRUCTION OF NOMINEES `UNPRECEDENTED’
• REID SAYS CONFIRMATION OF NOMINEES IS `UNWORKABLE’

What happens next:

The rules change being discussed among top Democrats would eliminate filibusters on all executive nominees as well as all judicial nominees, except those to the Supreme Court. Such a rules change would pave the path toward smoother confirmation for two more key Obama nominees: Janet Yellen to lead the Federal Reserve and Jeh Johnson to helm the Department of Homeland Security.

Still, Reid’s strategy may backfire if and when the republicans regain majority of the Senate:

Republicans are publicly warning that the change would simply be a path to eliminating the filibuster on everything, even on legislation — which would mean when the GOP takes the majority, Democrats will regret pushing the nuke button.

 

“You always have to take it seriously. I just think it would be incredibly short-sighted,” said Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, the Republican whip. “It just seems to be something they keep coming back to when [Democrats] don’t get their way.”

Then again, since Congress long lost control of a nation whose entire future hangs in the balance of the daily S&P closing print, what Reid or his peers do, is largely irrelevant, especially since Mr. Chairwoman just got the green light to get to work and make Congress even more irrelevant.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/ct5lk0W22jQ/story01.htm Tyler Durden

While the world of mainstream media stock pundits would like investors to believe that there is a wall of money on the sidelines waiting anxiously to go all-in on stocks (bear in mind there’s a seller for every buyer and where does the cash on the sidelines go when it is handed over to the seller in return for his stock?), as none other than Charles Schwab notes in this brief Bloomberg TV clip, “investors are less rattled” than most believe, “and have stayed invested” in large part. “There hasn’t been a wholesale movement away from stocks,” he goes on, busting myths asunder, adding that “investors want to see market-driven conditions, not Fed manipulated ones.”

So perhaps – just perhaps – Schwab is right, if the Fed stepped away and let markets be markets once again, maybe real capital would flow once again?

Schwab goes on to discuss how the Fed’s policy has hurt the older generation – “it has been a terrible thing”

Beginning at around 50 seconds, Schwab calmly dismisses one of the biggest market myths and raises a few red flags – “we see the market go up or down depending on which Fed member is speaking…”

 

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/715XVNqZnek/story01.htm Tyler Durden

While the world of mainstream media stock pundits would like investors to believe that there is a wall of money on the sidelines waiting anxiously to go all-in on stocks (bear in mind there’s a seller for every buyer and where does the cash on the sidelines go when it is handed over to the seller in return for his stock?), as none other than Charles Schwab notes in this brief Bloomberg TV clip, “investors are less rattled” than most believe, “and have stayed invested” in large part. “There hasn’t been a wholesale movement away from stocks,” he goes on, busting myths asunder, adding that “investors want to see market-driven conditions, not Fed manipulated ones.”

So perhaps – just perhaps – Schwab is right, if the Fed stepped away and let markets be markets once again, maybe real capital would flow once again?

Schwab goes on to discuss how the Fed’s policy has hurt the older generation – “it has been a terrible thing”

Beginning at around 50 seconds, Schwab calmly dismisses one of the biggest market myths and raises a few red flags – “we see the market go up or down depending on which Fed member is speaking…”

 

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/715XVNqZnek/story01.htm Tyler Durden

With the market not sure what bad news would send it soaring higher today, here comes the Philly Fed to save the day by tumbling from October’s 19.8 to a paltry 6.5, slamming through expectations of 15.0 – the biggest miss since February – and assuring that ahead of today’s POMO there is enough ammunition for a stock ramp to end the three days of declines.

But while the leading indicators of New Orders, Shipments and Unfilled Orders all plunged (from 27.5 to 11.9; from 20.4 to 5.6 and from 9.1 to -4.2, respectively), it was the jobs number that showed just how bad things really are with the Number of Employees and Average Employee Workweek both sliding from 15.4 to 1.1, and from 8.5 to -8.6. This is what the report said: “Labor market indicators showed little improvement this month. The current employment index fell 14 points from its reading in October (which was at a two?year high), to 1.1. Nearly 13 percent of the firms reported increases in employment, which is lower than the 23 percent that reported increased employment last month. Firms, on balance, reported lower work hours, with the average workweek index falling from 8.5 to ?8.6 this month.” Thank you Obamacare for making even more people into part-timers.

And broken down by components:

And now, since the economy is once again sliding on every possible banana peel, we can calmly go back to the “market” ramp.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/B66FOuoDiKg/story01.htm Tyler Durden