Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Like Being Completely Out Of Touch With Reality

On January 29, 1845, the New York Evening Mirror published a poem that would go on to be one of the most celebrated narrative poems ever penned. It depicted a tragic romantic’s desperate descent into madness over the loss of his love; and it made its author, Edgar Allan Poe, one of the most feted poets of his time.

The poem was entitled “The Raven,” and its star was an ominous black bird that visits an unnamed narrator who is lamenting the loss of his true love

So, with the vision firmly planted in your mind’s eye of a man completely out of touch with reality, seeking wisdom from a mysterious talking bird — knowing that there is only one response, no matter the question — Dear Reader, allow me to present to you a chart. It is one I have used before, but its importance is enormous, and it will form the foundation of this week’s discussion (alongside a few others that break it down into its constituent parts).

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you (drumroll please) total outstanding credit versus GDP in the United States from 1929 to 2012:

This one chart shows exactly WHY we are where we are, folks.

From the moment Richard Nixon toppled the US dollar from its golden foundation and ushered in the era of pure fiat money (oxymoron though that may be) on August 15, 1971, there has been a ubiquitous and dangerous synonym for “growth”: credit.

The world embarked upon a multi-decade credit-fueled binge and claimed the results as growth.

Fanciful.

Floated ever higher on a cushion of credit that has expanded exponentially, as you can see. (The expansion of true growth would have been largely linear — though one can only speculate as to the trajectory of that GDP line had so much credit NOT been extended.) The world has congratulated itself on its “outperformance,” when the truth is that bills have been run up relentlessly, with only the occasional hiccup along the way (each of which has manifested itself as a violent reaction to the over-extension of cheap money).

 

Folks, rates WILL have to go up again. They cannot stay at zero forever. We all know that. When they DO, because of all the additional debt that has been ladled atop the existing pile, the whole thing will come tumbling down.

All of it.

There is simply no way out, I am afraid. But that is clearly a problem for another day. Right now, everything is fine, so we can all go on pretending it will continue that way.

Evermore.

So now, if you’ll indulge me in a little poetic license (not to mention there being not one but four mysterious strangers in my offering), I give you, “The Maven” (abridged version):

Once upon a midnight dreary, while I pondered, weak and weary,
Over many a quaint and curious volume of financial lore
While I nodded, nearly napping, suddenly there came a tapping,
As of some one gently rapping, rapping at my chamber door.
“‘Tis some visiter,” I muttered, “tapping at my chamber door
Only this and nothing more.”

Ah, distinctly I remember it was in the bleak December;
And each separate dying ember wrought its ghost upon the floor.
Eagerly I wished the morrow; — for the world had sought to borrow
From both friend and foe and neighbour — borrow, borrow, borrow more
For the cheap and easy money which the bankers forth did pour
Shall be paid back nevermore.

Deep into that darkness peering, long I stood there wondering, fearing,
Doubting, dreaming dreams no mortal ever dared to dream before;
But the silence was unbroken, and the stillness gave no token,
And the only word there spoken was the whispered words, “Some More?”
This I whispered, and an echo murmured back the words, “Some More”
Merely this and nothing more.

Open here I flung the shutter, when, with many a flirt and flutter,
In there stepped four stately Mavens from the Central Banks of yore;
Not the least obeisance made they; not a minute stopped or stayed they;
But, with air of lord or lady, stood inside my chamber door —
Standing by a mug from Dallas just inside my chamber door —
Stood, and stared, and nothing more.

Then these tired-looking men beguiling my sad fancy into smiling,
By the grave and stern decorum of the countenance they wore,
“Though thy faces look unshaven, thou,” I said, “art sure enslaven’d,
Ghastly grim and ancient Mavens wandering from the Nightly shore —
To free money ever after lest the markets pitch and yaw.”
Quoth the Mavens, “Evermore.”

While I marvelled this ungainly bearded man explained so plainly,
Though his answer little meaning — little relevancy bore;
For he cannot help a-printing, brand new currency a-minting
Ever yet was blessed with seeing nothing wrong in doing more
Mortgage bonds upon his balance sheet he’ll place, then markets jaw
With the promise “Evermore.”

“You there” said I, “standing muted — what is there to do aboot it?”
In a heavy accent quoth he — that by God he was quite sure
That more money being printed and, new measures being hinted
At would quell all fear of meltdown and the markets all would soar
Would this mean the printing presses would forever roar?
Quoth the Maven, “Evermore.”

Lastly to the fore there strode a small and bookish man, Kuroda,
Who with glint of eye did warn that he was happy to explore
Measures once thought so outrageous as to never mark the pages
In the history of finance — but those times were days of yore
Drastic printing was required, this was tantamount to war
Quoth the Maven, “Evermore.”

And the Mavens, never blinking, only sitting, only thinking
By the Cowboys mug from Dallas just inside my chamber door;
Really do believe their action has created decent traction,
And that freshly printed money can spew forth for evermore;
But the truth about the ending shall be seen when markets, bending
Shall be lifted — nevermore!

The full must-read Grant Williams letter is below:

Ttmygh Dec 09 2013


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/7L3XWWDOLU0/story01.htm Tyler Durden

JPY Dumps And Nikkei Explodes As Japan’s (32nd Month In A Row) Adjusted Trade Deficit Hits Record High

Just because we thought it worthwhile to keep track of how out of control things are getting in Japan, a quick summary of this evening’s data. The Japanese trade balance (adjusted) shows a deficit for the 32nd month in a row and has surged to its largest (worst) level on record. It has missed expectations in 5 of the last 6 months. Imports rose more than expected again with a 10.2% MoM gain in imports from the US (and 35% YoY). This massive deficit is before the military spending unveiled last night has hit though one thing is certain, Goldman Sachs will be out with a report any second proclaiming the mythical J-curve about to arrive any moment… The reaction – JPY dumps and NKY explodes higher as bad news is good news in QQE land.

 

32nd and record monthly trade deficit…

 

as imports from the US explode…

 

The reaction


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/4LNms-SvW2o/story01.htm Tyler Durden

JPY Dumps And Nikkei Explodes As Japan's (32nd Month In A Row) Adjusted Trade Deficit Hits Record High

Just because we thought it worthwhile to keep track of how out of control things are getting in Japan, a quick summary of this evening’s data. The Japanese trade balance (adjusted) shows a deficit for the 32nd month in a row and has surged to its largest (worst) level on record. It has missed expectations in 5 of the last 6 months. Imports rose more than expected again with a 10.2% MoM gain in imports from the US (and 35% YoY). This massive deficit is before the military spending unveiled last night has hit though one thing is certain, Goldman Sachs will be out with a report any second proclaiming the mythical J-curve about to arrive any moment… The reaction – JPY dumps and NKY explodes higher as bad news is good news in QQE land.

 

32nd and record monthly trade deficit…

 

as imports from the US explode…

 

The reaction


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/4LNms-SvW2o/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Obama Least Popular President In 4 Decades

A new Washington Post/ABC poll released today shows that Obama is the least popular president in 39 years:

The president’s overall approval rating stands at 43 percent, while disapproval is at 55 percent.

 

***

 

Obama ends his fifth year in office with lower approval ratings than almost all other recent two-term presidents. At this point in 2005, for example, former president George W. Bush was at 47 percent positive, 52 percent negative. All other post-World War II presidents were at or above 50 percent at this point in their second terms, except Richard M. Nixon, whose fifth year ended in 1973 with an approval rating of 29 percent because of the Watergate scandal that later brought impeachment and his resignation.

Why is Obama so unpopular?

Because – as horrible as Bush was – Obama is worse than Bush in favoring the super-elite, bailing out the big banks, protecting financial criminals, targeting whistleblowers, keeping government secrets, trampling our liberties and starting military conflicts in new countries.

Obama is even worse than Bush in redistributing wealth from the American people to a handful of fatcats and trampling civil liberties.

Americans now realize that Obama is not following the will of the people.

Moreover, having a sell-out president Obama after a sell-out president Bush has shown the people that neither mainstream parties represents them.

Indeed, both the mainstream Republican and Democratic parties are virtually identical regarding core issues including:

Any apparent difference is just a scripted show.

Under both Republican and Democratic politicians, both the rule of law and free market capitalism have been trashed.

In reality, we no longer have free market capitalism. Instead, we have socialism for the rich and sink-or-swim capitalism for everyone else.   Conservatives see the socialism half of this equation, and liberals see the laissez faire free market half. Both liberals and conservatives hate crony capitalism. Look here, here, here.

Please have lost faith in the 2 party system.

Note: The poll numbers for Congress are even worse.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/ogrrCYVuelk/story01.htm George Washington

Tonight on The Independents: Obama Meets Tech CEOs, Trolls Russia; Plus Gubmint Waste, 9/11 Censorship, Lottery Morality, E-Cigarettes, and the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame!

Before we get into tonight’s lineup for The
Independents
, your very favorite new cable news
program
, let’s run a clip from last night’s episode, featuring
Reason Senior Editor Jacob Sullum breaking down Judge Richard
Leon’s
historic ruling
yesterday that the National Security Agency’s
metadata-collection program is maybe-probably unconstitutional:

Tonight features more discussion about the NSA, vis-a-vis
President Barack Obama’s
meeting today
with the nation’s top technology CEOs, who are

p-i-s-s-e-d
about how the federal government conscripts them
into the surveillance state. Also to be chewed on by
paneistsl Jehmu Greene
and Todd
Starnes
 is the annual “Wastebook” list
of ridiculous government spending compiled by Sen. Tom Coburn
(R-Oklahoma).  

Other topics: Former Sen. Bob Graham (D-Florida) will explain
why he’s trying to declassify 28 (presumably Saudi-implicating)
pages of the 9/11 Commission report. Also, people all over the damn
country are buying Mega Millions lottery tickets, hoping to win

a half-billion dollars
; can we blame government? And:
Obama totally trolls the Russian government by
declining a presidential or vice-presidential visit
to the
Sochi Winter Olympics opening ceremony, and sending in his
stead Billie
Jean effing King
. There will also be talk about New York’s

proposed ban on e-cigarettes
, the new class of
Rock & Roll Hall of Fame inductees
, and more.

That’s tonight live at 9 pm ET on Fox Business Network, with
your host Kennedy, plus
co-hosts Matt
Welch
 and Kmele Foster. Tweet
at @IndependentsFBN
(#independents), and/or comment right here!

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2013/12/17/tonight-on-the-independents-911-censorsh
via IFTTT

Tonight on The Independents: Obama Meets Tech CEOs, Trolls Russia; Plus Gubmint Waste, 9/11 Censorship, Lottery Morality, E-Cigarettes, and the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame!

Before we get into tonight’s lineup for The
Independents
, your very favorite new cable news
program
, let’s run a clip from last night’s episode, featuring
Reason Senior Editor Jacob Sullum breaking down Judge Richard
Leon’s
historic ruling
yesterday that the National Security Agency’s
metadata-collection program is maybe-probably unconstitutional:

Tonight features more discussion about the NSA, vis-a-vis
President Barack Obama’s
meeting today
with the nation’s top technology CEOs, who are

p-i-s-s-e-d
about how the federal government conscripts them
into the surveillance state. Also to be chewed on by
paneistsl Jehmu Greene
and Todd
Starnes
 is the annual “Wastebook” list
of ridiculous government spending compiled by Sen. Tom Coburn
(R-Oklahoma).  

Other topics: Former Sen. Bob Graham (D-Florida) will explain
why he’s trying to declassify 28 (presumably Saudi-implicating)
pages of the 9/11 Commission report. Also, people all over the damn
country are buying Mega Millions lottery tickets, hoping to win

a half-billion dollars
; can we blame government? And:
Obama totally trolls the Russian government by
declining a presidential or vice-presidential visit
to the
Sochi Winter Olympics opening ceremony, and sending in his
stead Billie
Jean effing King
. There will also be talk about New York’s

proposed ban on e-cigarettes
, the new class of
Rock & Roll Hall of Fame inductees
, and more.

That’s tonight live at 9 pm ET on Fox Business Network, with
your host Kennedy, plus
co-hosts Matt
Welch
 and Kmele Foster. Tweet
at @IndependentsFBN
(#independents), and/or comment right here!

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2013/12/17/tonight-on-the-independents-911-censorsh
via IFTTT

Taxpayers Pay $1.9 Million To Teach Senate Staff To Sleep, Spell, Listen

Just when one thought the government’s boondoggles couldn’t get any worse, along comes this…

Sometimes working in the Senate is stressful and means staying up all night to get your projects done.

Fortunately, overworked and under-slept staffers can take one of dozens of lifestyle coaching classes offered by the Senate to ensure they’re okay.

The Senate Office of Education and Training offers Senate employees a wide variety of free courses on everything from the “Benefits of a Good Night’s Sleep” to “Pressure Point Therapy Workshop,” in which students are taught “how to locate and relieve active pressure.” For its efforts, the office was provided $1.9 million in 2013 according to information provided by the office of the Senate Sergeant at Arms.

While the office is little known, even within the Senate, it made national headlines briefly in 2012 over a typo on the cover its course catalog.

After misspelling the word “training” by leaving out the first “N,” one staffer remarked, “Ooh! They’ve got an editing and proofreading class!”

According to its website, the Office “provides a variety of ways for you [a Senate staffer] to enhance your professional development and increase your performance and technical skills.” These include such offerings as, “Assert Yourself: Speak Up with Tact Rather than Suffer in Silence,” which will teach Senate employees the recognize the difference between assertive, aggressive, and passive behavior “without being a steamroller or a pushover.”

Other classes for the more reserved include, “Small Talk: Breaking the Ice in Social Situations” and “That’s Not What I Meant!,” a one hour class that “explore[s] the difference between your intention and the impact of your words and behavior on the other person.” It teaches the important lesson that “[c]ommunication is difficult and complex.”

In “Be Curious, Not Furious” students are taught how to examine a difficult work relationship, discuss the difference between labeling people and understanding them, and discuss five ways for understanding challenging behavior.

Should that fail to do the trick, the class on “Forgiveness,” defines the concept and explains the “[c]onsequences of holding a grudge.”

Some classes are there for Senate staff who slept through elementary, middle and high school such as “Making Subjects and Verbs Agree.”

Source: Wastebook 2013

* * *

And now, pay your taxes.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/s5Uo83V1QDI/story01.htm Tyler Durden

LA Sheriff’s Department Admits Hiring 80 Problem Officers; May Not Be Able to Fire Them

The Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department (LASD) has admitted
that they hired 80 officers in 2010 knowing that they had problems
in their past including 
misconduct at other law
enforcement agencies, solicitation of prostitutes, falsifying
police records and unlawfully discharging firearms. The department
is still figuring out what it will do with the officers, but

Assistant Sheriff Todd Rogers told the Los Angeles Times
that
they may not be able to fire these officers:

Rogers said sheriff’s officials are considering
terminating some but likely won’t be able to legally fire employees
for misconduct that sheriff’s officials knew about when they hired
them.
 What’s more realistic, he said, is moving
the problem hires to less sensitive positions, giving them more
training and putting them on administrative monitoring to limit
future misconduct.

The admission comes on the heels of a LA Times
investigation
, which reviewed taped interviews with LASD
applicants and hiring investigation files that were leaked to the
paper. The union that represents LASD
deputies 
tried
in September 2013 to stop the records from being
unveiled
 because the paper and reporter
possessed ”stolen property.”

On December 9, The U.S. Attorney’s Office charged 18
officers with civil
rights and corruption violations including conspiracy, obstruction
of justice and making false statements. From the
U.S. Attorney’s Office
:

LOS ANGELES – Five criminal cases that charge a
total of 18 current or one-time deputy sheriffs of various ranks
were unsealed today as part of ongoing and wide-ranging FBI
investigation into allegations of civil rights violations and
corruption involving members of the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s
Department. Four grand jury indictments and one criminal complaint
allege crimes that include unjustified beatings of jail inmates and
visitors at downtown Los Angeles jail facilities, unjustified
detentions and a conspiracy to obstruct a federal investigation
into misconduct at the Men’s Central Jail.

For more on the LASD and misconduct in the department,
read and watch LA
County Sheriff’s Hassle Photographer, Trample Constitution, Get
Lauded by Bosses
:


from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2013/12/17/la-sheriffs-department-admits-hiring-pro
via IFTTT

LA Sheriff's Department Admits Hiring 80 Problem Officers; May Not Be Able to Fire Them

The Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department (LASD) has admitted
that they hired 80 officers in 2010 knowing that they had problems
in their past including 
misconduct at other law
enforcement agencies, solicitation of prostitutes, falsifying
police records and unlawfully discharging firearms. The department
is still figuring out what it will do with the officers, but

Assistant Sheriff Todd Rogers told the Los Angeles Times
that
they may not be able to fire these officers:

Rogers said sheriff’s officials are considering
terminating some but likely won’t be able to legally fire employees
for misconduct that sheriff’s officials knew about when they hired
them.
 What’s more realistic, he said, is moving
the problem hires to less sensitive positions, giving them more
training and putting them on administrative monitoring to limit
future misconduct.

The admission comes on the heels of a LA Times
investigation
, which reviewed taped interviews with LASD
applicants and hiring investigation files that were leaked to the
paper. The union that represents LASD
deputies 
tried
in September 2013 to stop the records from being
unveiled
 because the paper and reporter
possessed ”stolen property.”

On December 9, The U.S. Attorney’s Office charged 18
officers with civil
rights and corruption violations including conspiracy, obstruction
of justice and making false statements. From the
U.S. Attorney’s Office
:

LOS ANGELES – Five criminal cases that charge a
total of 18 current or one-time deputy sheriffs of various ranks
were unsealed today as part of ongoing and wide-ranging FBI
investigation into allegations of civil rights violations and
corruption involving members of the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s
Department. Four grand jury indictments and one criminal complaint
allege crimes that include unjustified beatings of jail inmates and
visitors at downtown Los Angeles jail facilities, unjustified
detentions and a conspiracy to obstruct a federal investigation
into misconduct at the Men’s Central Jail.

For more on the LASD and misconduct in the department,
read and watch LA
County Sheriff’s Hassle Photographer, Trample Constitution, Get
Lauded by Bosses
:


from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2013/12/17/la-sheriffs-department-admits-hiring-pro
via IFTTT

Is ADHD a Pretext for Selling Speed?

New York Times
reporter Alan Schwarz, who for the last year or two has been

wondering
what’s up with all the speed kids are taking these
days, has a
long article
 in Sunday’s paper on “The Selling of
Attention Deficit Disorder.” Unfortunately, Schwarz barely mentions
the American Psychiatric Association (APA), the organization that
identified ADD, later relabeled “attention deficit hyperactivity
disorder” (ADHD), as a disease that can be treated with
prescription stimulants such as Adderall, Ritalin, and Vyvanse.
Instead he focuses on the companies that make those stimulants,
which he accuses of encouraging “overdiagnosis” to maximize
sales.

Schwarz surely is right that companies such as Shire, which
sells Adderall, and Ciba-Geigy, which makes Ritalin, have a
financial interest in pushing as broad a definition of ADHD as
possible. But none of this would be possible without the APA’s
blessing, and Schwarz pays scant attention to the problem of saying
whether someone does or does not have a disease for which there is
no objective test. Here is the sole reference to the APA in his
5,300-word story:

Like most psychiatric conditions, A.D.H.D. has no definitive
test, and most experts in the field agree that its symptoms are
open to interpretation by patients, parents and doctors.
The American Psychiatric Association, which receives
significant financing from drug companies, has gradually loosened
the official criteria for the disorder to include common childhood
behavior like “makes careless mistakes” or “often has difficulty
waiting his or her turn.”

ADHD, like every other condition listed in the APA’s
Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, is
whatever the current edition of the DSM says it is.
Since the official definition is broad and “open to
interpretation,” it is hard to know what Schwarz means by
“overdiagnosis.” Here is his best stab at explaining:

Few dispute that classic A.D.H.D., historically estimated to
affect 5 percent of children, is a legitimate disability that
impedes success at school, work and personal life. Medication often
assuages the severe impulsiveness and inability to concentrate,
allowing a person’s underlying drive and intelligence to
emerge.

But even some of the field’s longtime advocates say the zeal to
find and treat every A.D.H.D. child has led to too many people with
scant symptoms receiving the diagnosis and medication. 

Evidently Schwarz accepts the legitimacy of Classic ADHD while
turning up his nose at New ADHD. But since neither purported
disease can be objectively verified, it is not clear on what basis
Schwarz prefers the narrower definition. It seems to me that
Schwarz, who started his career as a sports reporter, is making a
moral judgment about when it is acceptable to use
performance-enhancing drugs: If you have a “legitimate disability,”
it’s OK, but not if you are merely
trying
to turn a B+ into an A. He dresses up this moral
judgment in the language of medical science, but it remains a moral
judgment, and a questionable one at that.

As Schwarz concedes, stimulants help many people, adults as well
as children, pay attention and perform better in school and at
work. The relevant question is not, as Schwarz seems to think,
whether all of these people “really” have ADHD (whatever that
means) but whether the benefits of stimulants outweigh their risks.
Schwarz tries mightily to magnify those risks:

Psychiatric breakdown and suicidal thoughts are the most rare
and extreme results of stimulant addiction, but those horror
stories are far outnumbered by people who, seeking to study or work
longer hours, cannot sleep for days, lose their appetite or
hallucinate. More can simply become habituated to the pills and
feel they cannot cope without them.

Notice how Schwarz mixes “rare and extreme…horror stories”
with a common, often welcome effect of stimulants, implying that
users experience suicidal thoughts, insomnia lasting for days, and
hallucinations (presumably due to the aforementioned sleep
deprivation) about as often as appetite suppression. His final
warning—that people may “become habituated to the pills and feel
they cannot cope without them”—is little more than negative spin on
a situation he elsewhere describes as taking a “medication” to
compensate for a “disability.” Schwarz’s most laughable attempt to
scare people away from stimulants is his grave warning that “these
drugs are classified by the government among the most
abusable substances in medicine.” Yes, and according to the
government, marijuana is
even more dangerous
.

I don’t mean to imply that prescription stimulants—or their
illegal counterparts, many of which, impurities aside, are
chemically very similar or identical (e.g., Desoxyn vs.
black-market meth)—carry no hazards at all. But the risks are the
same whether or not consumption of the drug has been blessed by a
doctor’s prescripton, and whether or not Alan Schwarz thinks that
prescription should have been written. People should be free to
weigh the risks for themselves, without having to obtain the
magical piece of paper that transforms crime into medicine.

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2013/12/17/is-adhd-a-pretext-for-selling-speed
via IFTTT