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Submitted by Michael Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

Now this is interesting. Investors looking at real estate should be aware of two main things at the moment. Those two things relate to what is really driving this centrally planned, manufactured rebound in U.S. real estate. It’s really a tale of two distinct trends. In formerly hurting markets such as Arizona, Nevada and Florida, private equity investors have flooded into what is a now gigantically crowded to “buy-to-rent” trade. Meanwhile, in the prime markets such as New York City and San Francisco, we have seen the “money laundering trade,” where rich oligarchs move their often ill-gotten gains into trophy real estate assets abroad.

We have seen many signs all year that the first key pillar to the manufactured rise in housing was becoming strained, as rents continued to rise while incomes continued to fall. It doesn’t take a genius to realize that this can only last so long, and many of the early investors in “buy-to-rent” have already gotten out or are trying to.

As far as the second pillar, well at some point the oligarchs will have purchased enough homes in London and Manhattan and then what? Interestingly, the seemingly unstoppable rental market in Manhattan is showing signs of cracking. What this ultimately means is unknown, but it’s an interesting data point nonetheless.

From Bloomberg:

Manhattan apartment rents fell for a third month in November and the vacancy rate reached the highest in at least seven years, signs the market is weakening amid a spike in homebuying and the lure of leasing in Brooklyn.

 

The median monthly rent in Manhattan dropped 3 percent from a year earlier to $3,100, according to a report today by appraiserMiller Samuel Inc. and brokerageDouglas Elliman Real Estate. The vacancy rate climbed to 2.8 percent, the highest since the firms began tracking the data in August 2006.

 

“With the scare about rising mortgage rates, it poached a lot of demand from the rental market,”Jonathan Miller, president of New York-based Miller Samuel, said in an interview. “On top of that, what else is poaching demand from the Manhattan rental market is Brooklyn.”

 

Manhattan landlords agreed to offer concessions, such as a month’s free rent, on 7.2 percent of all new leases in November, up from 4.2 percent a year earlier.

 

The number of new agreements dropped 34 percent, the biggest decline since September 2011, suggesting that landlords opted to forgo large rent increases to entice existing tenants to stay put, Miller said.

 

Leasing costs for luxury apartments, the top 10 percent of the market by price, climbed 1.2 percent to a median of $8,500.

Well, at least the oligarchs are still flush.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/JNm1ftR91v0/story01.htm Tyler Durden

We warned last week of the rising nationalism and concerns about Abe’s intentions and this evening the escalating tensions in the East China Sea are clear once again. In an effort to “normalize” an officially ‘pacifist’ policy, a hawkish Abe announced that Japan has tonight increased its military budget notably to buy drones, amphibious vehicles, submarines, and vertical take-off aircraft to boost defenses around the remote Senkaku islands. It seems the farce is getting more surreal as Japan also considers obtaining the means to counter ballistic missiles the point of launch. Why go to war and risk it all by printing and deficit spending your country into oblivion for a ‘purpose’ when you can do it without spilling a drop of blood? 

 

Via AFP,

Japan said Tuesday it intends to boost military spending by five percent over the next five years, with a hardware splurge intended to beef up defence of far-flung territories amid a corrosive row with China.

 

The cabinet of hawkish Prime Minister Shinzo Abe agreed 24.7 trillion yen ($240 billion) would be spent between 2014 and 2019, including on drones, submarines, fighter jets and amphibious vehicles, in a strategic shift towards the south and west.

 

The shopping list is part of efforts by Abe to normalise the military in Japan, which has been officially pacifist since defeat in World War II. Its well-equipped and highly professional services are limited to a narrowly defined self-defensive role.

 

…

 

New defence guidelines approved by the cabinet on Tuesday said Tokyo will introduce a “dynamic joint defence force,” intended to help air, land and sea forces work together more effectively in the face of danger.

 

“China … is taking dangerous action that can draw unexpected contingencies,” said the guidelines.

Via Bloomberg,

…

 

The government will also consider obtaining the means to counter ballistic missiles at the point of launch, according to new security plans which set a total five-year budget of 24.67 trillion yen ($239 billion), up about 1 trillion yen on the previous five-year plan.

 

Japan will set up a marines-style force to deal with any island incursions, equipping it with 17 tiltrotor aircraft and 52 amphibious vehicles, as well as three surveillance drones, according to documents given to reporters in advance.

Of course, the populism garnered by such a move is worrisome as these two powers engage in a bigger and bigger pissing match; but it seems, as we warned here, that no matter the cost, there may be war.

We are sure the world (and the BoJ) will be more than happy to fund this latest Keynesian black hole.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/dLJi1zVfU6g/story01.htm Tyler Durden

We warned last week of the rising nationalism and concerns about Abe’s intentions and this evening the escalating tensions in the East China Sea are clear once again. In an effort to “normalize” an officially ‘pacifist’ policy, a hawkish Abe announced that Japan has tonight increased its military budget notably to buy drones, amphibious vehicles, submarines, and vertical take-off aircraft to boost defenses around the remote Senkaku islands. It seems the farce is getting more surreal as Japan also considers obtaining the means to counter ballistic missiles the point of launch. Why go to war and risk it all by printing and deficit spending your country into oblivion for a ‘purpose’ when you can do it without spilling a drop of blood? 

 

Via AFP,

Japan said Tuesday it intends to boost military spending by five percent over the next five years, with a hardware splurge intended to beef up defence of far-flung territories amid a corrosive row with China.

 

The cabinet of hawkish Prime Minister Shinzo Abe agreed 24.7 trillion yen ($240 billion) would be spent between 2014 and 2019, including on drones, submarines, fighter jets and amphibious vehicles, in a strategic shift towards the south and west.

 

The shopping list is part of efforts by Abe to normalise the military in Japan, which has been officially pacifist since defeat in World War II. Its well-equipped and highly professional services are limited to a narrowly defined self-defensive role.

 

…

 

New defence guidelines approved by the cabinet on Tuesday said Tokyo will introduce a “dynamic joint defence force,” intended to help air, land and sea forces work together more effectively in the face of danger.

 

“China … is taking dangerous action that can draw unexpected contingencies,” said the guidelines.

Via Bloomberg,

…

 

The government will also consider obtaining the means to counter ballistic missiles at the point of launch, according to new security plans which set a total five-year budget of 24.67 trillion yen ($239 billion), up about 1 trillion yen on the previous five-year plan.

 

Japan will set up a marines-style force to deal with any island incursions, equipping it with 17 tiltrotor aircraft and 52 amphibious vehicles, as well as three surveillance drones, according to documents given to reporters in advance.

Of course, the populism garnered by such a move is worrisome as these two powers engage in a bigger and bigger pissing match; but it seems, as we warned here, that no matter the cost, there may be war.

We are sure the world (and the BoJ) will be more than happy to fund this latest Keynesian black hole.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/dLJi1zVfU6g/story01.htm Tyler Durden

While Canada has had Bitcoin ATMs for over a month, bringing the virtual currency closer to mainstream acceptance; Bittiraha.fi reports that at one of the busiest spots in Helsinki, the Finns have opened the first permanent Bitcoin ATM installation in Europe. With the Chinese shunning the crypto-currency for now but the Swiss inching towards a broader acceptance, the appearance of ATMs (like this one at a well-known Finnish record store in the Helsinki railway station) will only serve to stoke the public interest.

 

Via Bittirahi.fi,

We've launched THE FIRST permanent installation of a Bitcoin ATM in Europe. It's right there, ready for use, at one of the busiest spots in Helsinki. Proof is in the pics.

200 000 people walk through the tunnels of the Helsinki Railway Station each day. It's one of the busiest places in the city.

Levykauppa Äx is a well known Finnish record store chain.

Life at "AsematunnelI".

People. People everywhere.

Enter Bitcoin.

Can you see it?

Ah, there it is.

There it is. And it works.

BItcoin ATM selfie?

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/yx6YLahU7WM/story01.htm Tyler Durden

While Canada has had Bitcoin ATMs for over a month, bringing the virtual currency closer to mainstream acceptance; Bittiraha.fi reports that at one of the busiest spots in Helsinki, the Finns have opened the first permanent Bitcoin ATM installation in Europe. With the Chinese shunning the crypto-currency for now but the Swiss inching towards a broader acceptance, the appearance of ATMs (like this one at a well-known Finnish record store in the Helsinki railway station) will only serve to stoke the public interest.

 

Via Bittirahi.fi,

We've launched THE FIRST permanent installation of a Bitcoin ATM in Europe. It's right there, ready for use, at one of the busiest spots in Helsinki. Proof is in the pics.

200 000 people walk through the tunnels of the Helsinki Railway Station each day. It's one of the busiest places in the city.

Levykauppa Äx is a well known Finnish record store chain.

Life at "AsematunnelI".

People. People everywhere.

Enter Bitcoin.

Can you see it?

Ah, there it is.

There it is. And it works.

BItcoin ATM selfie?

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/yx6YLahU7WM/story01.htm Tyler Durden

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/PtgDEczYqOQ/story01.htm williambanzai7

Submitted by Alasdair Macleod of GoldMoney.com,

For many commentators there are two distinct camps in the gold market: investors in bullion and speculators in the paper market. With the two markets pulling in different directions some dealers think it is only a matter of time before derivatives fail completely and the price of gold will rocket on physical demand.

That two ends of one market are in conflict and one will win over the other is a tempting conclusion, but this is unhelpful. The conflict is more about two different types of investor: there are those who buy or sell on grounds of value and momentum investors who deal on the trend. It is the market structure that tends to corral them into different camps. Value investors generally go for physical metal, while momentum investors go for derivatives.

Their motivations are different. Value investors include buyers of physical gold from all over the world, commonly seeking value or security compared with holding fiat currency. Speculators in the futures markets rarely evaluate the price of gold, assuming the current price is the only valid reference point that matters. This bifurcation between value and momentum is a common feature from time to time in nearly all capital markets. We saw it in equities during the dot-com boom, when value investors were embarrassed before momentum investors were eventually crushed. However, both classes of investor always fish in the same pool.

Futures are the principal channel for momentum-chasers in gold, with very few of them interested in questioning value; and with the rise of the hedge fund industry the amount of money and credit available to this class is substantial. It is hardly surprising that critics feel derivative markets are depressing the gold price, but they ignore the fact that the current price in any market is the point where supply and demand finds a balance.

There are above-ground stocks of gold amounting to about 160,000 tonnes, and new mine supply increases this at about 1.7% per annum. Theoretically, all this gold is available for sale at some price; equally these quantities are an indication of the scale of underlying interest. If momentum investors think there is a case for lower gold prices they should make it after taking this into account. Trying to make this judgement in such an opaque market is never going to be simple, which is why they rarely try to do so.

The answer is to identify so far as possible the location of all investment gold as a first step to understanding prospects for the market. We can only conclude there is very little of it in investment form in private hands in the West, the bulk of it having been bought up by Asian buyers. The amount of ETF liquidation has been wholly insufficient to satisfy this demand, so by deduction central banks must have been supplying the markets with large quantities, because there is no other source of supply.

Therefore the key to future gold prices comes down to the point in time at which central banks stop supplying the market; not some sudden crisis between value investors in the East and momentum chasers in the West. That is to confuse cause with effect.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/sEXo-deaShg/story01.htm Tyler Durden