Friday A/V Club: A Soviet Filmmaker Adapts a Post-Apocalyptic Ray Bradbury Story

Forget The Day After. The great nuclear-war movie of
the early ’80s is this 10-minute take on Ray Bradbury’s “There
Will Come Soft Rains
“:

The film was made by Nazim Tulyakhodzayev—a Soviet director—in
1984, giving the picture a foothold on both sides of the Cold
War.

Bonus link: That time the FBI
thought Bradbury might be a Communist
.

(For past editions of the Friday A/V Club, go here.)

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What If The Easy Money Is Now On The Bear Side?

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

Complacent melt-ups aren't just boring–they're not very profitable.

File this under Devil's Advocate: what if the easy money in the stock market is no longer the "guaranteed" Bull melt-up but the Bearish bet on a sudden air pocket? Just as a thought experiment, put yourself in the shoes of the money managers who have the leverage to move the markets.
 

You probably know the drill: program your trading bots to recognize every technical trading scheme's key support and resistance levels, and then unleash huge futures/options buys after hours or pre-open so the market jumps in the direction that makes you the most money.

Unleashing a tsunami of buy orders forces Bears to cover their bets on a decline (shorts), goosing the market higher. The melt-up depends not just on trading bots hammering the market in the desired direction with massive buy orders–it depends on a supply of nervous Bears to cover their shorts by buying stocks. This buying triggers others' trading bots to buy into the rally.
 
Short-covering is an essential source of the self-reinforcing buying that has kept the U.S. market melting up for years without any gyrations down of more than a few percentage points.
 
Buy the dips has entered the Pavlovian realm of automatic response because the managed tsunamis of futures/options force those betting on a decline to cover their shorts by buying, pumping the rally up with steroid-like buying.
 
The problem with this guaranteed melt-up is the unceasing advance and immediate buy the dip response has decimated the ranks of Bears willing to bet against the melt-up. This has removed one of the primary fuel sources of the melt-up.
 
In other words, the managers' great success with forcing Bears to seek cover has drained a key reservoir of buying power. Eradicating the Bears has all been jolly good sport, but it has also reduced the shorts who can be forced to cover, which means the market is left with only the managers' manipulations and the other institutional trading bots that follow trends.
 
Consider this chart of the Rydex ratio of Bear/Bull assets, from John Hampson:
 
If Market Bears were tallied, they'd be on the list of Endangered Species. There is some confusion about the true number of Bears left, as prudent money managers may buy puts (bets on a market decline) to hedge their portfolios. As a result, a mass of put buying may reflect hedging, not Bearish bets.
 
The net result of eradicating the Bears is the gains from the melt-up are now limited. If you're a serious manager of serious money, squeezing out a couple of points from the melt-up is not only boring–it's detrimental to your career, because you need to beat the index melt-up to keep your big-bucks job and skim your payoff.
 
Which leads to the notion that the really big money waiting to be skimmed from the unwary is not more melt-up but a sudden "unexpected" meltdown that catches everyone who isn't short off-guard. The most profitable trade would be to stealthily build a short position while telling everyone else how the melt-up was guaranteed essentially forever ("the Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan have your back," etc.).
 
To make sure nobody strayed from the long side of the boat, you'd unleash the usual frenzy of buy orders at every dip, because the last thing you'd want is to give anyone else an easy entry to the Bearish short side.
 
The ideal situation is a boat heavily tilted to one side with complacent Bulls confident in the continuation of the never-ending melt-up, and only yourself and a few insider cronies on the short side.
 
Then, when all the Bulls are happily swapping stories about how the yen carry trade guarantees capital flows into U.S. equities and other Bull stories–
 
BANG! You unleash a tsunami of sell orders that triggers all the trend-following trading bots to sell. When the buy the dip crowd confidently enters their buy orders, you crush them with a load of futures and options orders that reverse the uptick. This triggers another wave of bot selling.
 
Since there are no Bears left except you and your cronies, the buy the dip retraces have no legs: they quickly peter out because no Bears are left to spark short-covering buying.
 
Since there are no Bears left, there's only the trading bots programmed to follow trends: and with your leverage and bag of tricks, that trend can go down faster than complacent Bulls thought possible.
 
Then, when the Bulls are stampeding in panic selling, you cover your Bear bets and start buying from the panic-stricken Bulls. The Hobby Bears who went short near the bottom are forced to cover as your buying turns the tide, and the market is soon in full recovery mode.
 

This is such an obvious (and immensely profitable) play, I'm surprised we haven't seen it more often. Complacent melt-ups aren't just boring – they're not very profitable.




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Cruz Booed, Palin Brawls, Cat Enthusiast Seeks Greatest Yearbook Picture Ever: A.M. Links

  • Draven RodriguezRepublican Sen. Ted Cruz
    offended the crowd at an event he attended, “In Defense of
    Christans.” Cruz told attendees that persecuted Christians had no
    greater friend than Israel,
    which prompted boos
    .
  • Ohio authorities apprehended escaped
    convict
    T.J. Lane. Lane, 19, had been serving three life
    sentences for murdering three classmates at his high school. At his
    trial, he showed no remorse, taunted his victims’ families, and
    laughed when the verdict was read. He escaped with two other
    inmates but was caught early Friday morning.
  • Apparently the Palin family got into
    some sort of fight with the locals
    at an Alaskan snowmobile
    race. Someone told Bristol Palin that she couldn’t just do whatever
    she wanted because,”This isn’t some Hillbilly reality show.”
  • A sixth grade teacher in the Washington, D.C., area
    apologized for giving her students
    a homework assignment that
    required them to make a Venn diagram comparing President George W.
    Bush to Adolph Hitler.
  • New York public school student Draven Rodriguez has a dream: He
    wants a weird picture of hin and his cat to make it into the
    yearbook.
    Fight the good fight
    , kid. (The picture is the greatest thing
    ever.)

Follow Reason and Reason 24/7 on
Twitter, and like us on Facebook. You
can also get the top stories mailed to you—sign up
here
.

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Kurt Loder Reviews The Skeleton Twins and The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby (Them)

In The Skeleton
Twins
, Kristen Wiig and Bill Hader draw on their many years of
professional togetherness – seven seasons ofSaturday Night Live,
five previous films – to set up the familial rhythms of a pair of
troubled siblings. The movie isn’t a straight comedy – the title
characters are sunk in despair, and only steps away from suicide.
But Wiig and Hader use their comic timing to create an easy
intimacy, even in scenes in which nothing funny is going on. Kurt
Loder writes that it’s unusual to check in with actors we’ve
watched for so long and find them doing something fresh – in fact,
giving breakthrough performances. But that’s what’s happening
here.

View this article.

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War/Not War?: Is John Kerry as Stupid as He Sounds? You Be the Judge

Via
Instapundit
comes a link to this stunning report from The
Hill:

Secretary of State John Kerry wants you to know that whatever it
is you call it when you drop bombs on people you want to kill, send
troops and advisers to foreign lands to kill and train people, it
isn’t war.

“What we are doing is engaging in a very significant
counterterrorism operation,” Kerry
said
. “It’s going to go on for some period of time. If somebody
wants to think about it as being a war with ISIL, they can do so,
but the fact is it’s a major counterterrorism operation that will
have many different moving parts.”

In a separate interview with CBS News, Kerry also rejected the
word “war” to describe the U.S. effort and encouraged the public
not to “get into war fever” over the conflict.

“We’re engaged in a major counterterrorism operation, and it’s
going to be a long-term counterterrorism operation. I think war is
the wrong terminology and analogy but the fact is that we are
engaged in a very significant global effort to curb terrorist
activity,” Kerry
told the network
.

“War is the wrong terminology and
analogy?”

That’s beyond sad—it’s insulting to the intelligence of us
all.

And, more important, it’s the sort of doublespeak whose
obfuscations pave the way to greater and greater involvement while
pretending the exact opposite.

If what Obama says we’re about to do in Iraq and Syria to ISIS
isn’t war, then why not send “boots on the ground,” as former CIA
and NSA director
Michael Hayden
and a growing chorus of
elected officials
are calling for?
Why did Obama argue
last year that he needed congressional
authorization to do the same thing to Syria?

Instapundit suggests that Kerry
doesn’t want to call it a war because we might lose it. I actually
think it’s because the administration is delusional and mistakes
its ability to rename things via clever word games for material
reality. Which is far more troubling than simple cowardice or
deceit. Certainly nothing Kerry has said in his new gig argues that
he has a robust sense of reality testing.

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Cops Tackle 70-Pound High Schooler…. And Guess What Her ‘Crime’ Was

Ixel PerezAnswer: She was using a cell phone when she
wasn’t supposed to.

According to KHOU, 70-pound high school sophomore Ixel Perez was
kicked out of her Houston, Texas, classroom for talking on her
phone. Perez claims she was concerned for her mother’s health and
was trying to talk to her using the phone. Next, an assistant
principal tried to confiscate the phone; when Perez refused, the
adminstrator called the police.

What happened next was recorded by another student using a cell
phone. The cops wrestled Perez to the ground and pinned her. One of
the officers put his knee on her head and held her against the hard
floor as she screamed.

Now Perez wants an apology—and her phone back—according
to KHOU
:

Perez was detained. Her mom says she was turned away when she
rushed to the school to make sure her daughter was OK. And as of
Wednesday morning Perez said school officials had not returned her
cell phone, in lieu of a $15 fee she would need to pay.

“We all know it was wrong,” said Perez’ brother Chris Cardenas.
“It doesn’t take three cops to take down one teenage girl,
especially a 70-pound teenage girl!”

A spokesperson for HISD would only respond with a brief written
statement:

“The safety of our students at Sam Houston High School and of all
our schools is always our absolute top priority. The HISD police
department and the school’s administration are continuing their
investigations of what led to the detainment of a female student
yesterday. ”

Meanwhile Perez and her family says she will not return to Sam
Houston High School. They will attempt to get her transferred to
another school.

It sounds like Perez behaved badly: It’s not okay to talk on a
phone during class, and if she was truly concerned about her mother
she should have asked permission to leave the classroom and make a
call from the office.

But that does not excuse the administrator who called the cops
for no good reason, nor does it justify how the cops handled the
situation. Treating students who break school rules like violent
criminals is unacceptable and outrageous.


Hat tip
: Eric Owens / The Daily Caller

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Retail Sales “Ex-Autos” Growth Slowest Since January

Retail Sales rose 0.6% in August –  as expected – with July revised from 0.0% to +0.3% but Ex-Autos the +0.3% growth is the slowest since January. The ‘control group’ (ex food, auto dealers, and building materials) missed expectations at +0.4% vs +0.5% exp slipping to its slowest growth in 3 months. Under the surface it appears the gains in sales are driven mostly by a 1.5% rise in auto sales – as more subprime credit is loaded onto the US consumer.

 

Ex-Autos, sales slipped to its slowest since January…

 

As the headline growth was driven largely by Auto Sales…

 

Sustainable?




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As Turkey Refuses To Join “Anti-ISIS” Coalition, John Kerry Comes Begging

It appears the ‘broad coalition’ that President Obama so confidently described just two days ago is crumbling faster than the Iraqi army. First UK and Germany deny support for airstrikes in Syria and now Turkey refuses to allow a U.S.-led coalition to attack jihadists in neighboring Iraq and Syria from its air bases, nor will it take part in combat operations against militants, a government official. US Secretary of State John Kerry arrived in Ankara this morning to ‘build the coalition’ but, as AFP reports, Turkish officials have already made their position clear, “Turkey will not be involved in any armed operation but will entirely concentrate on humanitarian operations.” Their ‘excuse’: “our hands and arms are tied because of the hostages,” but follows PM Erdogan’s recent shunning of Obama.

 

As AFP reports,

US Secretary of State John Kerry arrived in Ankara Friday for talks aimed at building a coalition against Islamic State jihadists, a visit that comes after Turkey said it would not allow its air bases to be used for strikes on the extremists.

 

The top US diplomat, touring the Middle East to establish a coalition of more than 40 countries, is to meet with Turkey’s leaders including President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for talks on measures to defeat the militants in Iraq and Syria.

 

Turkey, a NATO member and Washington’s key ally in the region, is reluctant to take part in combat operations against Islamic State militants, or allow a US-led coalition to attack jihadists from its territory.

 

On the eve of the visit, a Turkish official told AFP: “Our hands and arms are tied because of the hostages.”

 

The official added that Turkey will “not be involved in any armed operation but will entirely concentrate on humanitarian operations.”

 

IS militants hold 49 Turks hostage, including diplomats and children, abducted from the Turkish consulate in Mosul in Iraq in June.

Turkey is the only Muslim country in a coalition of 10 countries who agreed to fight ISIS at the NATO summit in Newport.

Turkey can open Incirlik Air Base in the south for logistical and humanitarian operations in any U.S.-led operation, according to the official who stressed that the base would not be used for lethal air strikes.

 

“Turkey will not take part in any combat mission, nor supply weapons,” he said.

*  *  *

This is not an entire surprise given Erdogan’s shunning of Obama and the decision echoes the country’s refusal to allow the U.S. to station 60,000 troops in Turkey in 2003 to invade Iraq from the north, which triggered a crisis between the two allies.




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Latest Scotland Poll Closes Gap Further: 49% Would Vote For Independence, 51% Against; Cable Wobbles

Yesterday’s YouGov poll, which saw the “No” camp regain the lead with 52% of the vote, was said by some to be the end of the “Yes” momentum observed last weekend when the Yes posted its first majority since polling began, Then moments ago, the momentum in the momentum changed once again, with the Guardian releasing the latest Scottish referendum poll by ICM which took place between September 9-11 polling a “a representative sample of 1,000 people”, and where the vote was said to be “too close to call“, as the margin collapsed once again, this time shifting the momentum in favor of the Yes vote, which received 49% of the vote, and No getting 51%, however 17% of the voters are “yet to make up their minds.”

From the Guardian:

Despite a week of intense political campaigning by pro-union politicians and repeated warnings from business about the dangers of independence, the poll finds support for no on 51% and yes on 49% once don’t knows were excluded.

 

The Guardian/ICM poll is based on telephone interviews conducted between Tuesday and Thursday, the first such survey ICM has conducted during the campaign. Previous polls suggesting that the race for Scotland could go to a photo-finish have been based on internet-based surveys.

 

The period of the survey not only witnessed the three UK party leaders absenting themselves from prime minister’s questions to campaign in Scotland, but also a growing rumble of news stories about the economic risks of independence: Mark Carney of the Bank of England gave new warnings over the currency, some financial institutions such as RBS signalled readiness to move their headquarters out of Edinburgh, and there have been warnings about a mortgage drought.

 

Despite all of this, and the most recent suggestions that supermarket prices could have to rise, everything remains to play for in the final days of the campaign, because 17% of voters in the overall sample say they have yet to make up their mind. Including them in mix, the rounded figures leave yes on 40%, and no on 42%.

 

The unprecedented political engagement generated by the campaign shines through in the poll, which finds 87% of respondents describing themselves as “absolutely certain to vote”, far more than the 55% who said the same thing about the next Westminster election in the most recent UK-wide Guardian/ICM poll.

And some curious breakdown by age group:

  • young people are almost as engaged as their elders, with 82% of 16- to 24-year-olds and 87% of 25-34s insisting that they are 10 out of 10 sure that they will cast a vote; many will have already done so through postal voting.
  • The 25-34s in particular are heavily inclined to back independence – leaning yes, by 57% to 43%.
  • Respondents aged 65+ are staunch unionists, being inclined to vote no by 61% to 39%.

Commenting on the age contrast, Martin Boon, director of ICM explains – “the generational divide a crucial dividing line in Scottish politics right now: each campaign’s success in motivating the particular cohorts that favour them looks crucial to the outcome”.

And then there is gender:

  • Scottish women remain loyal to the UK, by 55% to 45%, while Scottish men by contrast are, by 52% to 48%, in favour of independence.

Some final observations:

Friday’s poll also interrogates what is motivating supporters of the two camps – asking respondents to choose the two or three issues that incline them to vote as they intend. Among no supporters, feelings towards the UK are the single most important factor – named by 53%, followed by 37% who suggest that continuation of the union would be better for Scottish pensions and public services. Economic fears of separation, the principal focus of Better Together campaign over most of the course of the year, rank as less important, nominated by just 33% of nos.

 

On the yes side, the single most important factor are feelings about Westminster’s politics, which is named by 51%, while 40% express the hopes that independence would deliver a more prosperous future. Despite a recent emphasis on the risks of English-inspired NHS privatisation, among yes supporters feelings about public services and pensions are less important – identified as especially important in determining their decision by just 24%.

 

Asked “how risky” they think independence is, little more than a quarter of Scots (26%) say it represents “a huge risk”, considerably more than the mere 13% who believe that it is “no risk at all”, but less than 56% who rank the dangers as somewhere in between the two. Sticking with the UK is, not surprisingly, seen as a safer option – only 19% regard that as “a huge risk”, as against 32% who rate it as “no risk at all”. The difference between the two propositions as measured by the average scores on the five point riskiness scale (where 5 represents a huge risk) is substantial, but not perhaps as large as might be expected. The mean score for sticking within the union is 2.7, compared with 3.2 for going it alone.

Cable has wobbled on the news, although it is largely unchanged from before last night’s YouGov poll was released:




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Frontrunning: September 12

  • Russia faces new U.S., EU sanctions over Ukraine crisis (Reuters)
  • Glasgow pulls no punches in welcome to ‘Save the Union Express’ (Guardian)
  • Pound Seen Tumbling Up to 10% on Scottish Yes Vote (BBG)
  • Moscow stifles dissent as soldiers return in coffins (Reuters)
  • Ukraine’s leader sees no military solution of crisis, eyes reforms (Reuters)
  • Venezuela Threatens Harvard Professor for Default Comment (BBG)
  • Australia Raises Terror Alert to Highest Level in a Decade (BBG)
  • Activist Investors Build Up Their War Chests (WSJ)
  • Russians Skip Riviera Jaunt as Sanctions Ground Private Jets (BBG)
  • Yahoo Faced Big U.S. Fines Over User Data (BBG)
  • Why Musk Is Building Batteries in a Desert When No One Is Buying (BBG)
  • Madoff Son Andrew Leaves More Than $15 Million in Will (BBG)
  • Allies Pledge to Help U.S. Fight Islamic State (WSJ)
  • Sanctions Over Ukraine Put Exxon at Risk (WSJ)
  • Wall Street watchdog to pick insider as arbitration head – source (Reuters)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

* Washington’s international allies didn’t make clear how far they would go to join military operations even as they pledged their support. (http://on.wsj.com/X0Z7ts)

* Sanctions against Russia put Exxon in the middle of U.S. foreign policy and threaten to hurt one of the company’s best chances to find significant, and much needed, amounts of crude oil. (http://on.wsj.com/1rYORjN)

* The Treasury Department is monitoring U.S. banks that are shifting some trading operations overseas to avoid tough U.S. swaps rules, according to a department official. (http://on.wsj.com/YBNsTz)

* A number of the largest activists are raising billions of dollars, in an effort to take advantage of their increasing clout in boardrooms and above-average hedge-fund returns. (http://on.wsj.com/1qOCbbr)

* Starboard Value said it would take a number of steps to boost the value of Darden Restaurants, owner of Olive Garden, if the activist hedge fund wins control of the entire board. (http://on.wsj.com/1sxfDxL)

* Americans living abroad are being cut off by banks and brokerages as financial institutions seek to steer clear of a U.S. crackdown on money laundering and tax evasion. (http://on.wsj.com/1rQVPRV)

* Verizon Communications Inc could launch a digital video service over the Internet by the middle of next year, Chief Executive Lowell McAdam said at an investor conference on Thursday. (http://on.wsj.com/1uqrXAp)

 

FT

Savings and insurance firm Engage Mutual said it plans to merge with Family Investments, provider of child trust funds. The combined business is expected to have 2 million customers and 6 billion stg ($9.74 billion) of assets.

Banco Espirito Santo SA secretly loaned money to its 25 percent shareholder, Espirito Santo International, through ES Bank Panama for two years.

Air France KLM SA’s chief executive threatened to stop the development of the Franco-Dutch airline group’s budget carrier in France and its expansion in Europe, if Transavia France does not reach an agreement with the French pilots, before the strike next week.

German taxi drivers hired a driver from Uber, the app-enabled car service, as a part of the sting operation, to serve an injunction backed by threat of six month jail sentence or a fine of 25000 euros.

Manufacturing company Weir Group PLC said it would consider relocating its headquarters in the event of a “yes” vote in the Scotland independence referendum next week.

 

NYT

* The U.S. government was so determined to collect the Internet communications of foreign Yahoo customers in 2008 that it threatened the company with fines of $250,000 a day if it did not immediately comply with a secret court order to turn over the data. The threat, which was made public Thursday as part of about 1,500 pages of previously classified documents that were unsealed by a federal court, adds new details to the public history of a fight that unfolded in secret at the time. (http://nyti.ms/WQtemY)

* RadioShack Corp, the struggling electronics retailer that is quickly running out of cash, said on Thursday that it might have to file for bankruptcy protection, or even liquidate, if it cannot arrange a lifeline. (http://nyti.ms/1uyuqbo)

* Chinese regulators fined Volkswagen AG and Fiat’s Chrysler for violating antitrust laws, announcing on Thursday the first monetary penalties against large multinational carmakers swept up in a broad investigation. The fines, which totaled $46 million, were the latest in a series of tough measures by China against what it considers monopolistic practices. (http://nyti.ms/1tOxwdm)

* Subprime lenders have surprised everyone in recent years by churning out billions of dollars in loans that have not led to a pileup of bad debts. But this month, some signs have appeared that suggest subprime lenders are pushing this spree to the limit. The problems are occurring when they extend credit to particularly risky borrowers or make loans that are harder to repay. (http://nyti.ms/YC2o40)

* For the banks and credit card networks, Apple Pay could threaten some revenue streams, as the technology giant looks to assume a more central role in the financial universe. But the eager participation of banks and card companies suggests both Apple Inc’s clout, and the recognition among financial institutions that they face broader challenges from upstart technology ventures, many of which are not as eager or willing as Apple to work with the incumbent financial industry. (http://nyti.ms/1AEL8Xt)

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** World oil prices sank to their lowest intraday level in more than two years on Thursday after the West’s energy security watchdog cut its forecast for demand growth, threatening the earnings momentum that had returned to the Canadian oil patch. The International Energy Agency said in its September oil market report that economic weakness in Europe and China prompted it to temper its outlook for global oil demand in 2014 and 2015. (http://bit.ly/1nPUidE)

** It could be as long as a week before Toronto Mayor Rob Ford has a diagnosis for the tumor in his abdomen and a course of treatment is determined, news that continues to leave his political future in question. Zane Cohen, a colorectal surgeon and director of the Zane Cohen Centre for Digestive Diseases at Toronto’s Mount Sinai Hospital, said Ford had a mass in his lower abdomen and would continue to undergo tests Friday. (http://bit.ly/1qMm9Pn)

** The roughly 70 special forces soldiers Canada is deploying to Iraq have yet to start their mission, but these elite troops would be able to teach Kurdish fighters everything from marking targets for air strikes to operating high-tech communications gear. Stephen Harper has committed Canadian soldiers to Iraq for a 30-day assignment, although it is widely believed Ottawa will ultimately extend what the government insists is not a combat mission. (http://bit.ly/1uqPwt2)

NATIONAL POST

** If there are worries about falling oil prices, Canadian companies aren’t showing it. At a panel discussion about the oil sands at an energy conference this week in Toronto, companies seemed more concerned about pipeline shortages and acquiring ‘social licenses’ than the weakening price of a barrel of crude. “Commodity price remains the largest risk overall, but we are generally mostly bullish on the price of oil given the growth and demand outside of North America,” Ivor Ruste, chief financial officer at Cenovus Energy Inc, said in an interview. (http://bit.ly/1qMyYdY)

** The Canadian government proposes to slash public servants’ paid sick leave to five days a year and introduce an unpaid seven-day waiting period before they qualify for new short-term disability benefits. Treasury Board negotiators presented the government’s long-awaited bargaining position on a new sick-leave regime late Wednesday at closed-door talks with the giant Public Service Alliance of Canada. (http://bit.ly/1xQh5jb)

** At 4 a.m. Tuesday, a ring of police officers roused Antonio Coluccio from slumber inside a house in Siderno, a village on Italy’s picturesque coast that has stubbornly remained a stronghold for the Mafia, arresting him – again – and putting another dent in his hope of returning to his home and family in Canada. Coluccio, 44, lived in Richmond Hill, north of Toronto, until he was pressured to leave in 2010 by Canada’s immigration authorities who said he was involved in organized crime, accusations he denied. (http://bit.ly/1syxrIR)

 

China

CHINA SECURITIES JOURNAL

– The combined daily transaction volume at the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges increased to 431.4 billion yuan ($70.38 billion) on Thursday, the highest level in nearly four years, on the back of a running rally.

SHANGHAI SECURITIES NEWS

– CNOOC Ltd is trying to offload its 50 percent stake in AEGON-CNOOC Life Insurance Co Ltd for auction to potential buyer Tsinghua Tongfang Co Ltd. AEGON-CNOOC posted a net loss of 92.5 million yuan ($15.09 million) in 2013.

CHINA DAILY

– President Xi Jinping said China and Russia should begin early work on a natural gas pipeline project and increase bilateral energy cooperation when he met his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on Thursday.

– More than 100 internet companies in Beijing signed a pledge to identify and prevent the transmission of illegal and improper information online.

SHANGHAI DAILY

– China’s bank-card consumer confidence index hit the lowest level since the beginning of 2013 in August amid the country’s sluggish macro-economic situation, China UnionPay Co said in a report on Thursday.

PEOPLE’S DAILY

– President Xi Jinping proposed to build an economic corridor linking China, Mongolia and Russia during a meeting of the three heads of state on the sidelines of the 14th summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Thursday.

 

Britain

The Times

NORTH KOREA COMES OUT FOR SCOTLAND’S SALMOND

The Yes campaign in Scotland received an unlikely ally yesterday when it emerged that North Korea was quietly backing the independence movement. The country often described as the hermit kingdom is allegedly keen to increase trade with an independent Scotland, according to officials of the Pyongyang regime. (thetim.es/Ziqcty)

NEW RUSSIA SANCTIONS SET TO HIT BP AND EXXONMOBIL

BP and ExxonMobil could be caught up in the escalating trade war between Russia and the West today when a fresh round of economic sanctions are announced. (thetim.es/1pUeZ7S)

The Guardian

‘POISON PILL’ PRIVATISATION CONTRACTS COULD COST 300 MLN STG-400 MLN STG TO CANCEL

Taxpayers will face a 300 million stg ($487.56 million) to 400 million stg penalty if controversial probation privatisation contracts are cancelled after next May’s general election under an “unprecedented” clause that guarantees bidders their expected profits over the 10-year life of the contract. (bit.ly/1sv6SUP)

INDEPENDENT SCOTLAND ‘FACES DOUBLING OF BBC LICENCE FEE

The BBC is under political pressure to reveal details of a highly charged internal study which found that viewers in an independent Scotland would have to pay almost double their current licence fee if they wanted to continue watching and listening to the same BBC shows. (bit.ly/YBmtHH)

The Telegraph

JUDGE THOKOZILE MASIPA RIPS APART PROSECUTION CASE AGAINST OSCAR PISTORIUS FOR MURDER OF REEVA STEENKAMP

Judge Thokozile Masipa, who tried the Oscar Pistorius case without a jury, said prosecutors had failed to prove beyond reasonable doubt that Pistorius intended to kill his girlfriend at his Pretoria home on Valentine’s Day last year. (bit.ly/1tO5xu8)

SCOTLAND’S ALEX SALMOND GOES TO WAR WITH BBC OVER RBS ‘LEAK’

An irate Alex Salmond today declared war on the BBC after the Corporation disclosed Royal Bank of Scotland Group’s decision to move its headquarters to England if there is a Yes vote. (bit.ly/X3ePEr)

Sky News

NEW POLL GIVES ‘NO’ SMALL LEAD IN SCOTLAND VOTE

The Better Together campaign in Scotland is retaining a marginal lead, according to a new poll that puts No on 52 percent and Yes on 48 percent. The YouGov poll of 1,300 people on the issue of Scottish independence for The Sun and The Times was taken over Tuesday to Thursday. (bit.ly/1tDOlnz)

AMAZON TO CREATE THOUSANDS OF JOBS IN LONDON

Amazon has announced plans to open a new London office with the potential for more than 3,000 extra jobs. The online retailer, which already employs 1,700 people in its existing UK offices, said its main corporate office would switch to a building in Shoreditch in 2017. (bit.ly/WZhlLT)

The Independent

SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE: PRICES WILL RISE WITH YES VOTE, JOHN LEWIS BOSS WARNS

Prices in Scottish branches of John Lewis, Waitrose and Next are likely to be higher than in the rest of the UK if the country votes to become independent next week. (ind.pn/1pUs29f)

SPORTS DIRECT TO BE SUED BY ZERO-HOUR WORKERS AFTER THEY MISS OUT ON A £160M BONUS

Workers at the Sports Direct chain of stores who were left out of a 160 million stg bonus scheme because they are on zero-hour contracts are preparing to take legal action. (ind.pn/1paomAl)

 

 

Fly On The Wall Pre-market Buzz

ECONOMIC REPORTS

Domestic economic reports scheduled for today include:
Retail sales for August at 8:30–consensus up 0.6%
Import prices for August at 8:30–consensus down 0.9%
University of Michigan consumer confidence for September–consensus 83.3
Business inventories for July at 10:00–consensus up 0.4%

ANALYST RESEARCH

Upgrades

Cedar Realty Trust (CDR) upgraded to Buy from Hold at KeyBanc
Genuine Parts (GPC) upgraded to Buy from Hold at BB&T
Inland Real Estate (IRC) upgraded to Buy from Hold at KeyBanc
Littelfuse (LFUS) upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer
Netflix (NFLX) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays
Noranda Aluminum (NOR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman
OCI Partners (OCIP) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup
Ramco-Gershenson (RPT) upgraded to Buy from Hold at KeyBanc
Sprint (S) upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Cowen
The Advisory Board (ABCO) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo

Downgrades

Annie’s (BNNY) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital
DDR Corp. (DDR) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS
Investors Real Estate (IRET) downgraded to Underperform at RBC Capital
OCI Resources (OCIR) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
PMFG (PMFG) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at William Blair

Initiations

Acuity Brands (AYI) initiated with an Outperform at Cowen
Aerohive Networks (HIVE) initiated with an Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley
Alibaba (BABA) initiated with an Outperform at Wedbush
Allison Transmission (ALSN) initiated with a Positive at Susquehanna
AmSurg (AMSG) initiated with a Buy at KeyBanc
Aruba Networks (ARUN) initiated with an Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley
Aviv REIT (AVIV) initiated with a Buy at Stifel
CareTrust REIT (CTRE) initiated with a Hold at Stifel
Chart Industries (GTLS) initiated with a Market Perform at Cowen
Community Health (CYH) initiated with an Outperform at Leerink
Cree (CREE) initiated with a Market Perform at Cowen
Dollar General (DG) initiated with a Buy at UBS
Dollar Tree (DLTR) initiated with a Buy at UBS
Epizyme (EPZM) initiated with a Buy at Mizuho
Family Dollar (FDO) initiated with a Neutral at UBS
HCA Holdings (HCA) initiated with an Outperform at Leerink
Hanesbrands (HBI) initiated with a Buy at Wunderlich
Itron (ITRI) initiated with a Market Perform at Cowen
L Brands (LB) initiated with a Buy at Wunderlich
LifePoint Hospitals (LPNT) initiated with a Market Perform at Leerink
Maxwell (MXWL) initiated with an Outperform at Cowen
Methanex (MEOH) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup
NewLink Genetics (NLNK) initiated with a Buy at Mizuho
PVH Corp. (PVH) initiated with a Buy at Wunderlich
Pacific Ethanol (PEIX) initiated with an Outperform at Cowen
Performance Sports Group (PSG) initiated with an Outperform at Imperial Capital
Perry Ellis (PERY) initiated with a Buy at Wunderlich
Polypore (PPO) initiated with an Outperform at Cowen
Ruckus Wireless (RKUS) initiated with an Underweight at Morgan Stanley
Salix (SLXP) initiated with an Underperform at Credit Suisse
Silver Spring Network (SSNI) initiated with an Outperform at Cowen
Streamline Health (STRM) initiated with a Market Perform at Cowen
Synchrony Financial (SYF) initiated with a Neutral at UBS
Tenet (THC) initiated with a Market Perform at Leerink
Ubiquiti Networks (UBNT) initiated with an Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley
Universal Health (UHS) initiated with an Outperform at Leerink
Vitesse (VTSS) initiated with a Buy at Ascendiant
Volaris (VLRS) initiated with an Equal Weight at Barclays

COMPANY NEWS

Hertz (HTZ) reached an agreement-in-principle with Carl Icahn to add three directors to its board
Alliance Data (ADS) to acquire Conversant (CNVR) for $35 per share, or $2.3B
Starboard releases detailed transformation plan for Darden (DRI), which includes a company-wide operational improvements designed to generate more than $300M in EBITDA improvements; a turnaround plan for Olive Garden; a value enhancing strategy for Darden’s real estate assets; a separation of concepts into the most logical groupings; and a new franchising program believes transformation plan can unlock $19-$38 per share in value
U.S. had threatened Yahoo (YHOO) with $250,000/day fine over not providing user data
Barclays (BCS) said John McFarlane to succeed David Walker as chairman
Lexicon’s (LXRX) publication of Phase 2b study showed LX4211 provides a meaningful benefit for patients with type 2 diabetes

EARNINGS

Companies that beat consensus earnings expectations last night and today include:
Sportsman’s Warehouse (SPWH), Ulta Salon (ULTA)

Companies that missed consensus earnings expectations include:
Intrawest Resorts (SNOW)

Companies that matched consensus earnings expectations include:
Green Bancorp (GNBC)

NEWSPAPERS/WEBSITES

Dollar General (DG) waiting on FTC feedback for Family Dollar (FDO) deal, NY Post reports (DLTR)
Verizon (VZ) could launch digital video service by mid-2015, WSJ reports
Applied Materials (AMAT)/Tokyo Electron filing doesn’t satisfy MofCom, Bloomberg says
General Motors (GM) issues ‘stop delivery’ order for new Corvettes, WSJ reports
Citi’s (C) Diners Club attracts attention of banks in Japan, Bloomberg reports
Apple’s (AAPL) website crashes as users look to pre-order iPhone 6, BI reports
Sprint (S) CEO says looking for partnerships to broaden scale, Reuters reports
Sell lululemon (LULU) during rally, Barron’s says

SYNDICATE

HD Supply (HDS) announces sale of 20M shares by holders
Health Care REIT (HCN) files to sell 15.5M shares of common stock
Inventure Foods (SNAK) 3.59M share Secondary priced at $12.85
TriNet (TNET) 12M share Secondary priced at $25.50




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1qraTKt Tyler Durden