iftttwall

The next five days will feature an unusual pairing of major US data releases: the January employment report on Wednesday and the January CPI report on Friday, two reports which usually never appear in the same week. Ahead of those, markets will digest December retail sales and the Q4 employment cost index tomorrow, alongside a heavy schedule of Fed speakers, many of them current voters. Global inflation updates from China (Wednesday) and several European economies will add to the momentum, while the UK’s Q4 GDP (Thursday) will also be released. Corporate earnings remain in full swing, even if six of the Mag-7 have now reported, thus reducing some potential volatility until Nvidia report on February 25th.

For the employment report (which we will preview fully tomorrow), DB economists expect headline and private payrolls to rise by 75k (consensus at +69k and +75k respectively), a modest improvement relative to recent trend rates. If this holds, they anticipate the unemployment rate staying at 4.4%. They also expect average hourly earnings to increase 0.3%, with hours worked unchanged at 34.2, leaving the year over year growth rate of our payroll based nominal compensation proxy drifting up to 4.5% from 4.3%.

This month’s release will include the usual benchmark revisions to the establishment survey, though the population control adjustment to the household survey has been postponed to next month. The preliminary benchmark revision of roughly 0.6% to March 2025 employment was already unusually large, and the BLS is also introducing more frequent updates to the birth death model. While it’s impossible to know exactly how these higher frequency adjustments will influence recent data, even small changes could matter given that January typically shows the largest non seasonally adjusted job losses of the year. The final benchmark revision may also shift again, as it often deviates from the preliminary estimate once updated QCEW data are incorporated. All of this raises the uncertainty around Wednesday’s figures.

Turning to inflation (which we will also preview fully later this week), DB economists expect headline CPI to increase 0.26%, held down by an expected 2.4% drop in motor fuel prices, while core CPI should rise 0.35%. On this basis, headline CPI would slow to 2.46% year over year (from 2.68%), and core to roughly 2.55% (still rounding to 2.6%). The January release will include updated relative importances and new seasonal factors, which could affect individual components and possibly lead to firmer readings when last year’s data are re-examined. This could prompt some Fed officials to reassess the near term path of inflation.

Elsewhere in the data flow, tomorrow’s retail sales report should mirror evidence of solid holiday demand. Economists expect headline sales to rise 0.4%, with ex autos and retail control up 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively. That would leave Q4 retail control growing at a 4.5% annualized pace for the seventh straight quarter above 4%, supporting a firm consumption contribution in the Q4 GDP report due later this month. They also expect a 0.8% rise in the Q4 ECI, bringing the year over year pace down to 3.5%, still above its pre-pandemic average. Thursday’s jobless claims should ease back toward 226k after last week’s weather related spike.

Fed communication will be constant throughout the week. Governor Waller, Governor Miran, and Atlanta’s Bostic speak today, followed by Cleveland’s Hammack and Dallas’s Logan tomorrow. Vice Chair of Supervision Bowman speaks Wednesday, where regulatory topics and the balance sheet outlook may surface. Discussions around balance sheet strategy are gaining attention amid the nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair, given his previously stated preference for a smaller balance sheet. Logan, Miran, and Kansas City’s Schmid will offer additional views later in the week, including first reactions to the jobs report.

In Europe, economic indicators due include Q4 GDP in the UK on Thursday as well as CPI prints in Denmark, Norway (both tomorrow) and Switzerland (Friday). In geopolitics there will be notable focus on the Munich Security conference to be held Friday through Sunday.  Remember that last year’s summit was home to the extraordinary speech by JD Vance which was partly credited as responsible for the huge rearmament drive in Europe.

In Asia, we also have the January inflation reports in China due Wednesday. Our economists forecast producer prices to further rebound to -1.6% YoY from -1.9% in December 2025. In contrast, CPI inflation will likely slow to 0.4% YoY from 0.8% (see more here). Japanese PPI is out on Thursday.

Rounding out with earnings, this week’s lineup features tech names including Cisco, Applied Materials and Shopify as well as US consumer firms Coca-Cola and McDonald’s.

A busy week for European large caps includes results from AstraZeneca, Hermes, Siemens and L’Oreal. Other highlights feature energy firms TotalEnergies and BP as well as Unilever, AB InBev and Ferrari among consumer stocks.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday February 9

• Data: US January NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, Japan January Economy Watchers survey, M2, M3, bank lending, December BoP trade balance and current account balance, labour cash earnings, Norway Q4 GDP
• Central banks: Fed’s Waller and Bostic speak, ECB’s Lagarde, Nagel and Lane speak, BoE’s Mann speaks
• Earnings: UniCredit, DBS, Apollo, ON Semiconductor

Tuesday February 10

• Data: US January NFIB small business optimism, Q4 employment cost index, December retail sales, import price index, export price index, November business inventories, Japan January machine tool orders, Denmark January CPI, Norway January CPI
• Central banks: Fed’s Hammack and Logan speak
• Earnings: Coca-Cola, AstraZeneca, Gilead Sciences, S&P Global, Welltower, Spotify, BP, CVS Health, Barclays, Marriott International, Williams, Robinhood, Cloudflare, Ferrari, Ford, Datadog, Kering, Fiserv
• Auctions: US 3-yr Notes ($58bn)

Wednesday February 11

• Data: US January jobs report, federal budget balance, China January CPI, PPI, Japan January PPI, Italy December industrial production, Canada December building permits
• Central banks: ECB’s Cipollone and Schnabel speak, BoC Summary of Deliberations
• Earnings: Cisco, McDonald’s, T-Mobile US, Shopify, AppLovin, TotalEnergies, Siemens Energy, EssilorLuxottica, NetEase, Equinix, Vertiv, Heineken, Deutsche Boerse, Commerzbank, Dassault Systemes, Kraft Heinz, Humana, Albemarle
• Auctions: US 10-yr Notes ($42bn)

Thursday February 12

• Data: US January existing home sales, initial jobless claims, UK Q4 GDP, January RICS house price balance, Germany December current account balance
• Central banks: ECB’s Radev, Lane, Stournaras, Nagel and Cipollone speak, BoC’s Rogers speaks
• Earnings: Applied Materials, Hermes, Siemens, L’Oreal, Arista Networks, SoftBank, Unilever, Anheuser-Busch InBev, British American Tobacco, Vertex, Agnico Eagle Mines, Howmet Aerospace, Airbnb, Vale, Mercedes-Benz, RELX, Zoetis, Adyen, Legrand, Expedia, PG&E, DSM-Firmenich
• Auctions: US 30-yr Bonds ($25bn)

Friday February 13

• Data: US January CPI, China January home prices, Q4 BoP current account balance, Germany January wholesale price index, Eurozone December trade balance, Q4 employment, Switzerland January CPI
• Central banks: Fed’s Miran and Logan speak, BoJ’s Tamura speaks, BoE’s Pill speaks
• Earnings: Safran, NatWest, Cameco, Capgemini, Norsk Hydro, Moderna
• Other: Munich Security Conference (through January 15)

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the retail sales report on Tuesday, the employment report on Wednesday, and the CPI report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including events with Fed Governors Waller and Miran on Monday and the Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman on Wednesday. 

Monday, February 9 

• No major data releases are scheduled. 
• 01:30 PM Fed Governor Waller Speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will speak on digital assets at an event organized by the Global Independence Center. Q&A is expected. On January 30, Waller said, “I dissented at the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) after concluding that cutting the policy rate by 25 basis points was the appropriate stance of policy.” He added that the reasons for his dissent are that “the labor market remains weak” and “though inflation is elevated from tariff effects, appropriate monetary policy is to look through these effects as long as inflation expectations are anchored, which they are.”
• 02:30 PM Fed Governor Miran Speaks: Fed Governor Stephen Miran will participate in a moderated conversation at Boston University. Q&A is expected. On January 5, Miran said, “I’m looking for about a point and a half of cuts [in 2026]” because “underlying inflation is running within noise of our target, and that’s a good indication of where overall inflation is going to be in the medium term.”
• 03:15 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) Speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will participate in a moderated conversation with Bill Watts, editor of Pro Farmer. Q&A is expected. On February 2, Bostic said, “We are still too high in inflation, so I think we need to be somewhat restrictive.” He added that “I do feel the downside risk—that a catastrophe is going to happen in employment—is much further away from us than it was even a month ago, and that gives me some confidence we can be patient.”
• 05:00 PM Fed Governor Miran Speaks: Fed Governor Stephen Miran will be interviewed on WBUR Podcast in Boston. Q&A is expected.

Tuesday, February 10 

• 08:30 AM Import price index, December (consensus +0.1%, last flat); Export price index, December (consensus +0.1%, last flat) 
• 08:30 AM Retail sales, December (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.4%, last flat); Retail sales ex-auto, December (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.4%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, December (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.5%); Core retail sales, December (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.8%): We estimate core retail sales increased 0.3% in December (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials; month-over-month SA), reflecting solid alternative data but a headwind from potential residual seasonality. We estimate headline retail sales increased 0.4%, reflecting an increase in auto sales but lower gasoline prices.
• 12:00 PM Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC voter) Speaks: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will speak on the banking and economic outlook at the 2026 Ohio Bankers League Economic Summit. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On December 12, Hammack said, “I see rates as right around a neutral level, [and] I would prefer to be on a slightly more restrictive stance to help put more pressure on inflation that remains too high.”
• 01:00 PM Dallas Fed President Logan (FOMC voter) Speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will deliver remarks and participate in moderated Q&A at the 2026 Asset Management Derivatives Forum in Austin, Texas. Speech text is expected.

Wednesday, February 11 

• 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, January (GS +45k, consensus +69k, last +50k); Private payroll employment, January (GS +45k, consensus +75k, last +37k); Average hourly earnings (MoM), January (GS +0.35%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); Unemployment rate, January (GS 4.4%, consensus 4.4%, last 4.4%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 45k in January. On the negative side, we estimate that the birth-death model—which will be updated with this report, more details below—could contribute 30-50k fewer jobs to payroll growth (on a seasonally adjusted basis) than in recent months and big data indicators suggested a modest pace of private sector job growth. Additionally, we expect unchanged government payrolls—reflecting a 10k decline in federal government payrolls that is offset by a 10k increase in state and local government payrolls. On the positive side, the pace of layoffs—a particularly important determinant of net job growth in January—remained subdued. However, the seasonal factors have evolved to expect smaller declines in employment in recent Januarys, limiting the potential boost from this channel. We do not expect a drag from winter Storm Fern, which formed about a week after the reference week. 
  • We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.4% in January, but we see the risks as skewed to a decline: the bar for rounding down to 4.3% is not high from an unrounded 4.38% in December and the January unemployment rate appears to suffer from modestly negative residual seasonality (the unrounded unemployment rate has declined in each of the last three Januarys). We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.35% month-over-month in January, reflecting positive calendar effects.
  • This month’s report will be accompanied by the annual benchmark revision to the establishment survey and a methodological update to the birth-death model. The BLS’s preliminary estimate of the benchmark payrolls revision indicated that cumulative payroll growth between April 2024 and March 2025 would be revised 911k lower. We estimate that the final downward revision will likely be somewhat smaller—in the range of 750-900k—as job growth in the QCEW, which informs the revision, has been revised up since the BLS issued the preliminary estimate. The BLS will also update the net birth-death forecasts in the post-benchmark period (April 2025-December 2025) to incorporate information from the QCEW and the monthly payrolls survey. A downward revision to the post-benchmark period appears likely, reflecting the continued slowdown in the QCEW and weak private payroll growth during the post-benchmark period. Starting with this month’s report, the birth-death model will incorporate current sample information each month. 
• 10:00 AM Kansas City Fed President Schmid (FOMC non-voter) Speaks: Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid will speak at the Economic Forum of Albuquerque in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On January 15, Schmid said, “I believe that there is a risk that lowering rates could do more harm to the inflation side of our mandate than benefit on the employment side.” He added that “I see little reason at this point to further lower the policy rate, though of course, I will be watching the data closely for signs that growth is losing momentum or that the labor market is weakening more substantially.”
• 10:15 AM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman Speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will participate in a virtual moderated conversation at Keefe, Bruyette & Wood 33rd Annual Winter Financial Services Conference. Q&A is expected. On January 16, Bowman said, “Absent a clear and sustained improvement in labor market conditions, we should remain ready to adjust policy to bring it closer to neutral.” She added that while monetary policy is not on a preset course, “we should also avoid signaling that we will pause without identifying that conditions have changed.”
• 04:00 PM Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC voter) Speaks: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will participate in a leadership dialogue at Ohio State University. Q&A is expected.

Thursday, February 12 

• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended January 31 (GS 220k, consensus 224k, last 231k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended January 24 (consensus 1,850k, last 1,844k)
• 10:00 AM Existing home sales, January (GS -2.5%, consensus -3.2%, last +5.1%)
• 07:00 PM Dallas Fed President Logan (FOMC voter) Speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will give opening and closing remarks at an event with Governor Stephen Miran. Speech text is expected.
• 07:05 PM Fed Governor Miran Speaks: Fed Governor Stephen Miran will participate in a moderated discussion at the Dallas Fed. Q&A is expected.

Friday, February 13 

• 08:30 AM CPI (MoM), January (GS +0.24%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.1%); Core CPI (MoM), January (GS +0.33%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); CPI (YoY), January (GS +2.44%, consensus +2.5%, last +2.7%); Core CPI (YoY), January (GS +2.52%, consensus +2.5%, last +2.6%): We estimate a 0.33% increase in January core CPI (month-over-month SA), which would lower the year-over-year rate by 0.1pp to 2.5% on a rounded basis. Our forecast reflects upward pressure from seasonal distortions on the communications (GS forecast: +0.4%) and private transportation (+1.5%) categories. We expect a modest boost from start of the year price resets in categories like medical care commodities (GS forecast: +0.7%), and upward pressure from tariffs on categories that are particularly exposed (such as recreation) worth +0.07pp. We expect firm travel services inflation (airfares: +2%; hotels: +1%), reflecting signals from alternative price data. We expect softer autos inflation, reflecting a 1.5% decline in used car prices, unchanged new car prices, and a moderate increase in the car insurance category (+0.4%). We forecast a slight slowdown in the shelter categories (rent: +0.24%, OER: +0.25%), reflecting a continued slowdown in their underlying trend. We expect unchanged medical services prices, reflecting a continued decline in medical insurance prices (-0.7%) but increases in other medical care services categories. We estimate a 0.24% rise in headline CPI, reflecting higher food prices (+0.4%) but lower energy prices (-1.3%).
  • In this month’s report, the BLS will release recalculated seasonal factors that reflect the price movements of 2025—which could reduce the impact of seasonal distortions that explained some of the month-to-month variation in core inflation last year—as well as updated weights. The annual seasonal factor revisions tend to cause monthly inflation readings to be revised toward the annual average. In other words, higher inflation readings for the year tend to be revised lower and lower readings tend to be revised higher. On average over the last decade, about 20% of the relative strength of a month’s initial core inflation vintage has been revised away in its first annual revision. Last year, monthly core CPI inflation was particularly elevated in January (23bp above the 2024 average) and particularly low in March-May (8bp below).

Source: Goldman, DB

US forces conducted live-fire military drills in the Persian Gulf at a moment of ongoing Washington threats to attack Iran over its nuclear program as well as ballistic missile arsenal. 

“Last week, Navy Sailors from USS Santa Barbara participated in the exercise Killer Tomato, a live-fire maritime gunnery exercise conducted in the Central Command’s area of responsibility and supported by an Air Force A-10 Thunderbolt II aircraft,” US Central Command (CENTCOM) posted on X Sunday.

It continued, “The exercise provided realistic training to improve surface gunnery proficiency while reinforcing joint air-maritime integration, combat readiness, and deterrence across the region.”

It’s unclear why the US military only chose to reveal it Sunday, and not in real-time while the drills were actually being conducted. This was perhaps a security measure, to ensure no incidents or run-ins with Iranian forces, after previously an Iranian drone was shot down as it was said to be headed toward US warships.

As for use of the A-10 Thunderbolt, this long in service aircraft would assist in thwarting any small vessel threat or attack against American ships, as it is able to fly very low and take out craft with its powerful machine guns. It conducted low strafing runs as part of these latest Persian Gulf drills.

The futuristic-looking vessel featured in the US Navy’s photos is the USS Santa Barbara, described by a defense journal as follows:

The vessel is one of the U.S. Navy’s high-speed, modular Independence-class littoral combat ships, designed for operations in contested coastal waters. USS Santa Barbara is capable of speeds exceeding 40 knots and has a range of around 4,300 nautical miles at cruising speed, allowing it to conduct extended patrols and rapid response missions across the region. It displaces more than 3,100 tonnes at full load and is powered by a combined diesel and gas turbine propulsion system driving four waterjets. It carries a core crew of around 40 personnel, with capacity for additional mission specialists depending on the role assigned.

Central Command’s photo set from the war drills…

Last week, @USNavy Sailors from USS Santa Barbara (LCS 32) participated in the @USAFCENT-led exercise Killer Tomato, a live-fire maritime gunnery exercise conducted in the @CENTCOM area or responsibility and supported by @usairforce A-10 Thunderbolt II aircraft. The exercise… pic.twitter.com/esO5BtCMKT

— U.S. Naval Forces Central Command/U.S. 5th Fleet (@US5thFleet) February 8, 2026

Since late January, American and Iranian forces have been holding dueling drills and war games in the region, in an effort to signal military readiness amid a tense showdown.

Ultimately it is Israel that is most alarmed by Iran’s missile program, given Tel Aviv was on the direct receiving end during the June war – also said to involve hypersonic missiles sent.

US bases within range of Iranian ballistic missiles.

AFP Infographic with a map showing the range of Iran’s main intermediate-range ballistic missiles and the location of major US bases and infrastructure housing American personnel in the Middle East. Ranges are approximate as… pic.twitter.com/ilewg6e2lp

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) February 9, 2026

CENTCOM has recently said that while Iran’s military has a “right” to operation professionally in international waters, it must avoid any provocative or harassing behavior involving American vessels or forces. The two enemy sides are one small ‘live fire’ incident away from potentially sparking major conflict.

Last week, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries sent a letter to Republican leadership calling for sweeping reforms at the Department of Homeland Security before funding expires on Feb. 13. The letter outlined ten “guardrails” for DHS, including the demand that ICE agents wear body cameras when interacting with the public. 

While most of the demands on Schumer’s and Jeffries’ list were never going to be agreed to, the use of body cameras by ICE agents has bipartisan support. Even President Donald has voiced support for body cameras, pointing out that they “generally tend to be good for law enforcement because people can’t lie about what’s happening.”

.@POTUS on body cams: “They generally tend to be good for law enforcement because people can’t lie about what’s happening.” https://t.co/LbAeV4YXdL pic.twitter.com/Hy7wBg8dFp

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) February 2, 2026

Days later, Democrats reversed course after left-wing privacy advocates raised “concerns” about body cameras becoming a mass surveillance tool. Democrats now fear the technology could feed video of protesters into facial recognition systems, allowing ICE to identify and track demonstrators. 

“Obviously, we want them to be wearing body cameras, but we would want restrictions placed on what that information could be used for,” Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) said. “We want to make sure that we have the accountability for how these officers conduct themselves on the streets of our country, but we don’t want it in turn to be used as a way of coming back and suppressing free speech.”

Lawmakers and activists have accused ICE of using various cameras to surveil protesters by running images through license plate readers and facial recognition systems, and Democrats are now claiming they believe body cameras could serve the same purpose. DHS said its body cameras are not equipped with facial recognition. Democrats fear the images could be downloaded and later run through facial recognition.

Republicans had already agreed to provide more funding for ICE body cameras before Democrats began pushing for limits on how the images are used. The homeland security bill that passed the House last week included $20 million for equipping immigration enforcement personnel with body cameras. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem announced on Feb. 3 that all federal agents deployed to Minneapolis would immediately be equipped with body cameras. She said the program would expand nationwide as funding becomes available.

The reversal raises questions about whether Democrats are genuinely concerned about protester privacy or worried that body camera footage will protect ICE agents from false accusations. 

Lora Ries, director of the Border Security and Immigration Center at The Heritage Foundation, explained how wearing body cameras could shield agents from misconduct claims. “Defund ICE is the same movement and has the same funders and organizers as the ‘defund the police’ movement,” Ries told The Daily Signal. “Just as bodycams have helped police defend against false claims made by rent-a-rioters, so too will bodycams help ICE defend against false claims made to obstruct ICE and prevent deportations to protect the Left’s political power.”

Video recorded by an ICE agent on his phone when he fatally shot Renee Nicole Good in Minneapolis not only showed Good striking the agent with her car before she was shot, but also gave critical context of the events before the shooting that debunked several left-wing narratives about what happened. Democrats claimed that Good was just a scared mom who accidentally ended up in the middle of an ICE operation and was merely trying to leave the scene. The footage proved she was there to obstruct the operation. The agent’s phone footage also showed Good’s wife yelling at her to drive her car before striking the agent.

Democrats went from demanding body cameras for accountability and transparency to proposing legislation that would limit their use within days. The shift suggests Democrats may have realized that body camera footage could work in favor of ICE agents rather than against them. Video evidence from encounters like the Good shooting has already shown that footage can exonerate officers and contradict activist narratives. 

If body cameras protect agents from false claims, as Ries suggested, the technology undermines the broader effort to obstruct immigration enforcement operations. That possibility may explain why Democrats are suddenly claiming concern about surveillance and privacy, concerns that were notably absent when they first demanded the cameras.

S&P futures are unchanged, erasing all overnight losses, extending last week’s choppy price action focused on AI repercussions; Nasdaq 100 futures underperform slightly ahead of an important week that has both the January jobs and CPI report on deck (at least the firehose of earnings is slowing down). As of 8:15am ET, S&P futures are unchanged, and Nasdaq futures dip 0.2% with tech the biggest laggard as Semis come back under pressure and Mag7 names are all weaker.  The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose three basis points to 4.24% after BBG reported that China tells state and local banks to limit/reduce Treasury exposure (does not affect Federal holdings) which according to JPM may raise risk of a “Sell America” trade esp with Japan / APAC poised to rip in the near-term. The dollar dipped 0.3%, supporting gold and silver. Bitcoin slipped below $69,000. Commodities are big with precious metals and gasoline the upside standouts. Today’s macro data focus is on the NY Fed’s inflation expectations release.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Microsoft +0.6%, Amazon +0.03%, Meta -0.1%, Tesla -0.1%, Alphabet -0.3%, Apple -0.1%, Nvidia -0.9%)

• Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) falls 3% after fourth-quarter adjusted Ebitda from the steel company missed the average analyst estimate.
• Eli Lilly (LLY) rises 1% after agreeing to buy US biotech Orna Therapeutics Inc. for up to $2.4 billion in cash.
• Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) tumbles 20% after the telehealth company said it will stop selling its recently launched copycat version of the new Wegovy weight-loss pill.
• Kroger Co. (KR) is up 5% as the supermarket chain named Greg Foran as its chief executive officer. Foran led Walmart US for six years
• Kyndryl Holdings (KD) sinks 40% after the information-technology services company spun off from IBM reported adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Li Auto’s ADRs (LI) fall 3% after JPMorgan downgraded the stock to underweight on a view that new EV models from five other carmakers are likely to pressure the Chinese auto firm’s sales this year.
• Monday.com (MNDY) slumps 14% after the software company forecast revenue for the first quarter; the guidance missed the average analyst estimate.
• SoFi Technologies (SOFI) gains 3% as Citizens upgrades the online personal finance company to market outperform.
• Tegna Inc. (TGNA) rises 9% after President Donald Trump backed television broadcaster Nexstar Media Group’s proposed $3.5 billion acquisition of the company.

In corporate news, Nvidia-backed Firmus Technologies secured a $10-billion loan from a group including Blackstone-led funds to boost its data center rollout. 

Stock futures are jittery after last week’s nosebleeding volatility while Treasuries fell after Chinese regulators urged banks to limit their holdings. It’s a big week for eco data, with delayed January releases for payrolls on Wednesday and CPI due Friday. Stocks will remain choppy, according to Goldman Sachs’ trading desk, with systematic strategies expected to be net sellers. A renewed decline could trigger about $33 billion of selling this week, they said, although that will likely be more than offset by a huge short squeeze after last week saw record short selling of single stocks.

“These moves also make people say, ‘Let me be a little bit more cautious than I had been” and wait for a better opportunity,” said Keith Lerner, chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services.

The AI debate continues, with Deutsche Bank strategists noting significant rotation out of tech, while Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson sees opportunity in enablers and adopters.  Tech stocks had been caught up in a rout due to worries over the billions of dollars being spent on AI. The release of a new automation tool from Anthropic PBC added to the pressure, as investors ditched stocks seen as vulnerable to AI disruption. 

“Expect swings to continue until we have clearer visibility on the AI monetization, as well as the Fed’s rate path,” said Desmond Tjiang, chief investment officer for equities and multi-asset investment at BEA Union Investment. 

The employment report this week is predicted to show payrolls rose 69k in January, which would be the best in four months. The report will also include an annual revision to the jobs count, which is expected to reveal a notable markdown to payrolls growth in the year through March 2025. CPI may be lukewarm due to prices of cars and medical commodities offsetting a spike in other core goods.

While the US is winning the AI race, “its markets are footing the bill,” write Bloomberg Intelligence strategists Gillian Wolff and Michael Casper. After recent volatility, US tech valuation premiums have narrowed to around 23% versus China and Taiwan tech. After a challenging week for stocks, with rising performance dispersion and single-stock volatility, global equity markets look primed for short-term consolidation, according to strategists at Citi.

In geopolitics, Iran’s President described US nuclear talks as a “step forward.” Bessent cited Chinese traders as a reason behind last week’s wild swings in the gold market. Japanese equities surged to fresh record highs on Monday after PM Sanae Takaichi’s party achieved a landslide victory.

Apollo, Becton Dickinson and Waters are among companies scheduled to report before the market open. Apollo’s AUM are likely to expand 25%, the most since 1Q 2021, helped by continued inflows growth. Earnings from Arch Capital and ON Semi are due later in the day.

The Stoxx 600 is up 0.2% as European stocks rise on Monday, lifted by Novo Nordisk A/S shares after a US competitor scrapped a copycat Wegovy weight-loss pill. Travel and leisure as well as banking shares outperform, while the personal care and retail sectors lag. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday: 

• InPost shares jump as much as 14% after Advent, FedEx, A&R and PPF announced plans for a €15.60 share buyout.
• Novo Nordisk shares surge as much as 8.6%, reversing some of last week’s plunge, after Hims & Hers Health Inc. pulled a copycat version of the new Wegovy weight-loss pill.
• STMicro shares rise as much as 7% after Amazon deepened its ties with the Franco-Italian chipmaker to secure semiconductor technologies for its data centers.
• Plus500 shares rise as much as 7.1% to a record high as the trading platform says its performance in FY26 is likely to be better than the market expects.
• UniCredit shares gain as much as 6.5% after the Italian lender reported fourth-quarter net income that beat estimates, and said it plans to return about €50b to investors in next five years.
• Coor Service Management shares rise as much as 14% in Stockholm, the steepest gain since December 2015, after newspaper Dagens Industri reports that six new owners have simultaneously built up almost identical holdings in the Swedish company.
• DSM-Firmenich shares fall as much as 5.7% after the firm agreed to sell its animal nutrition and health business to CVC Capital Partners at a lower valuation than some analysts expected.
• NatWest shares fall as much as 5.6% as the UK lender says no further buybacks are likely before 1H 2027 results after it agrees to buy wealth manager Evelyn Partners for an enterprise value of £2.7 billion.
• Greggs shares drop as much as 6% after Jefferies downgraded the bakery chain to hold, noting that the uptake of weight-loss drugs was a headwind to the earnings outlook.
• Ayvens shares fall as much as 3.7% after Oddo BHF cuts the French vehicle rental firm to neutral from outperform over a reset of used car sales results.
• Eramet shares fell as much as 6.3% after the Financial Times reported that the French company suspended CFO Abel Martins-Alexandre last week, days after the board announced it had terminated the mandate of CEO Paulo Castellari.

Earier in the session, Asian stocks gained, as Japanese stocks rallied to a record and South Korea led a wider surge in technology shares.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 2.5% to a fresh high, with Japanese stocks leading gains after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s ruling party achieved the biggest post-war victory for a single party in a general election. Korean stocks also surged by more than 4% following report that Samsung Electronics will start mass production of HBM4 chips after the Lunar New Year holiday. Stocks also traded higher in Taiwan, China and Hong Kong. The renewed optimism comes as a relief after Asia’s benchmark index posted its first weekly loss in seven. Meanwhile in Japan, Takaichi’s win is expected to benefit sectors including AI, semiconductors and defense on her expansionary fiscal policies. The yen strengthened away from levels seen as a danger zone for intervention. In Thailand, stocks surged as much as 4% to the highest levels since December 2024 after an election win by the ruling party paved the way for more policy clarity. Stocks also gained in India, Indonesia and Malaysia.

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s “historic victory gives Prime Minister Takaichi a stable majority, reducing coalition constraints and enabling decisive action on fiscal stimulus, AI, semiconductors, energy security, and strategic reforms,” said Marc Jocum, senior investment strategist at Global X Management. “Markets now have a clear fiscal policy runway through 2028 until the next election.”

In FX, the yen is gaining against the greenback in the wake of Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi’s election victory. Expect this kneejerk reversal, which may have had some help from local authorities to unwind soon. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot index is down 0.2%. While the pound has picked up, it remains near the bottom of the G-10 pile amid a UK political risk premium. This is also being seen in other UK assets with gilts down 35 ticks versus losses of 13 ticks for bunds.

In rates, treasuries are mixed, tracking a curve-steepening gilt selloff following the resignation of a second senior aide to Prime Minister Keir Starmer.US long-end yields are 2bp-3bp higher on the day with shorter maturities little changed, widening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by about 2bp, triggered by a Bloomberg report noting that China directed banks to limit holdings of US Treasuries. The bond market is also trying to figure out what a Warsh-led Fed will mean, particularly his call for a new accord with the Treasury Department. UK long-end tenors are about 3bp cheaper on the day, steepening its 2s10s curve by 3bp. The delayed January jobs report is ahead on Wednesday and quarterly new-issue auctions start Tuesday.  Treasury coupon auctions resume Tuesday with 3-year notes, followed by 10- and 30-year new issues, totaling $125 billion.

“There is no credible alternative as a global reserve asset at present,” said Geoff Yu, senior macro strategist at BNY. “Our holdings data indicates 72% of global sovereign bond allocations are in US Treasuries, with the euro zone at 11%. There is no comparison.”

Meanwhile, the Treasury is due to offer a combined $125 billion in three-, five- and 10-year debt.
 

“At least two cuts this year, maybe three cuts. Given the easing that we’ve already seen, I think the US economy probably will accelerate this year,” Paul Jackson, global market strategist at Invesco, told Bloomberg TV.

In commodities, precious metals are higher but off best levels with gold and silver showing respective gains of 0.9% and 2.7%. WTI crude futures have picked up throughout the European session, gaining 0.3%. Bitcoin is down 2.5% with selling picking up after slipping below the $70,000 level.  

US economic calendar includes January New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations at 11am. Ahead this week are December retail sales and January employment and CPI.Fed speaker slate includes Waller (1:30pm), Miran (2:30pm, 5pm) and Bostic (3:15pm)

Market Snapshot 

• S&P 500 mini -0.1%,
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.2%,
• Russell 2000 mini -0.1%
• Stoxx Europe 600 little changed,
• DAX little changed, CAC 40 -0.1%
• 10-year Treasury yield +3 basis points at 4.24%
• VIX +0.8 points at 18.52
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.1% at 1189.33
• euro +0.3% at $1.1856
• WTI crude little changed at $63.56/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Democrats won’t pass the remaining DHS funding unless their demands to reform ICE are met, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told CNN. BBG
• Kevin Warsh’s call for a new Fed-Treasury accord has stirred debate in the $30 trillion bond market, raising concerns over central bank independence and potential market volatility. BBG
• Chinese regulators have advised financial institutions to rein in their holdings of US Treasuries, citing concerns over concentration risks and market volatility. BBG
• Japanese stocks swept to all-time peaks while super-long bonds quickly reversed early weakness in an apparent vote of confidence in Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s “responsible, proactive” fiscal policy. BBG
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cited Chinese traders as a reason behind last week’s wild swings in the gold market. He said “They’re having to tighten margin requirements. So gold looks to me kind of like a classical, speculative blowoff.” Bessent expects the Federal Reserve to move cautiously in any effort to trim its balance sheet, and to take at least a year to decide what to do. RTRS
• Thailand’s ruling party clinched a surprise election win over the pro-democracy People’s Party. PM Anutin Charnvirakul’s victory marks the first this century for a party aligned with the royalist establishment. Thai stocks and currency rose. BBG
• UK PM Keir Starmer is battling to save his premiership after the dramatic resignation on Sunday of his most trusted aide Morgan McSweeney, as Labour MPs and officials warn that his job is still in grave peril. FT
• The ECB’s Gediminas Simkus said there’s an equal chance that policymakers’ next move will be to raise or lower borrowing costs. BBG
• Big Tech’s AI push and data center building being financed by some of the world’s biggest companies in the AI boom is becoming one of the most momentous capital efforts in US history (as a percentage of GDP). It’s bigger than the railroad expansion of the 1850s, the Apollo space program that put astronauts on the moon in the 1960s and the decadeslong build-out of the U.S. interstate highway system that ended in the 1970s. WSJ
• Trump posted “Record Stock Market, and National Security, driven by our Great TARIFFS. I am predicting 100,000 on the DOW by the end of my Term. REMEMBER, TRUMP WAS RIGHT ABOUT EVERYTHING! I hope the United States Supreme Court is watching”.

Trade/Tariffs

• Indian imports of Russian oil could nearly halve following the White House order, Bloomberg reported citing sources. Within the order, it stated that India has committed to stop directly or indirectly importing Russian oil or import tariffs will be raised.
• South Korea’s legislature approves creation of special US investment committee.
• Australia has imposed 10% tariffs on China’s steel ceiling frames, following an investigation by the nation’s Anti-Dumping Commission, according to Bloomberg.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks began the week higher after last Friday’s rally on Wall St, where the DJIA topped the 50k level for the first time, while the Nikkei 225 also hit a fresh record high after PM Takaichi’s landslide election victory and supermajority. ASX 200 rallied with all sectors in the green and the advances being led by broad strength in tech, real estate, miners, materials and resources. Nikkei 225 rose to fresh record highs above the 57,000 level after the Japanese PM Takaichi’s LDP won a supermajority in the lower house election, which would allow it to override the upper house in legislation, while the decisive win paves the way for the government to proc eed with further stimulus and a sales tax cut. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the widespread upbeat mood across the region, while it was also reported late last week that China’s Cabinet studied measures to promote effective investment and pledged to boost support for private investment.

Top Asian News

• Japan’s PM Takaichi said that she has received strong mandate for her policies, following the election. Confirms a swift restart of of parliamentary session. Discussions on refundable tax credit will commence. Will not resort to debt to fund the suspension of food sales tax. Will summit bill to establish national information and committee on foreign investment in the next parliament. Want to pursue a coalition expansion with the DPP if they are keen to do so. Want to lay out interim finding at cross-party meeting on food sales tax suspension by around summer this year. Closely watching market moves, including FX.
• Japanese PM Takaichi said the potential of our alliance with the US is limitless and she is sincerely grateful to US President Trump for his warm words.
• US President Trump congratulates Japanese PM Takaichi and her coalition on a landslide election victory.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said will not comment on FX levels, but noted that recent yen moves are somewhat rapid and one-sided.
• Hong Kong court sentences media tycoon Jimmy Lai to 20 years in jail.
• Japan’s top currency diplomat Mimura said closely watching FX moves with a high urgency.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) are firmer across the board, as strength across APAC equities filters through into Europe. European sectors hold a positive bias. Travel & Leisure leads, followed closely by Healthcare and Banks whilst Optimised Personal Care and Retail lags. Healthcare is buoyed by gains in Novo Nordisk (+8.3%), which benefits after Hims & Hers said it will stop selling a copycat version of Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy weight-loss pill two days after launch.

Top European News

• Norwegian GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q4) Y/Y 2.2% (Prev. 2.1%).
• Norwegian PPI YoY (Jan) Y/Y -7.8% (Prev. -11.4%).
• Norwegian GDP Growth Mainland QoQ (Q4) Q/Q 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.1%).
• Norwegian GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q4) Q/Q -0.3% (Prev. 1.1%).

FX

• DXY is on the backfoot and trades at the bottom end of a 97.33-97.76 range; further pressure could see a test of last week’s trough at 97.00. Much of the pressure this morning can be associated with JPY strength (post-election, discussed below) and following a Bloomberg report which noted that China is urging banks to curb US Treasuries exposure amid market risk – whilst this piece pertains to USTs, it renews fears of a “sell America” theme. US data is lacking for the remainder of the day, so focus will be on Fed speak via Waller, Miran and Bostic. Note: Waller is to discuss “digital assets”, markets know what they expect from arch-dove Miran, and Bostic is set to retire. The docket picks up later in the week, where markets will await US NFP (Wed) and then CPI (Fri); as a reminder, recent jobs metrics have been pointing towards a weakening of the labour market.
• JPY is amongst the outperformers this morning. USD/JPY initially gapped higher at the open (157.47), edged lower a few moments later, before reversing back to highs of 157.65. Since, the JPY has been strengthening vs the USD, potentially on a) high expectations of an LDP victory, b) higher JGB yields, c) jaw-boning via Finance Minister Katayama, d) political stability, e) odds of a BoJ hike in April rising to circa. 60% (prev. 54%). For the latter, analysts at Barclays believe that LDP’s landslide victory may allow the BoJ to proceed with normalisation “somewhat” faster. As such, the bank brought forward its expectations of a 25bps hike to April (prev. saw July), and increased its terminal forecast to 1.5% (prev. 1.25%). This morning, PM Takaichi has provided commentary, has reiterated her vows of fiscal stability, noting that she “will not resort to debt to fund the suspension of food sales tax” – another factor which is likely helping the strength in the JPY this morning. [More details can be found on the Newsquawk headline feed at 07:40GMT/02:40ET]
• G10s are broadly stronger against the USD, with JPY, AUD, EUR, and CHF all firmer by around 0.5%. GBP is the laggard this morning, as domestic political woes remain for the PM. On Sunday, Chief of Staff McSweeney resigned from his role following the Mandelson scandal. Irrespective of this, risks remain, as members of the Cabinet are potentially set to call for the PM to resign, and if he doesn’t, they will possibly step down themselves.

Fixed Income

• JGBs gapped lower by 30 ticks from 131.42 to 131.12 at the open, and then continued to trundle lower to a 131.10 trough; there was then a brief bounce overnight, before gradually declining back to the APAC low. Action today can be characterised by concern around potential increased spending and fiscal instability fears, but overall, the response to Takaichi’s LDP securing a super majority has been within recent levels – see the 07:40GMT post for more details and next steps.
• USTs are lower, given the above initially. More recently, pressure is a function of a Bloomberg report that China has urged banks to diversify exposure to US Treasuries amid heightened market risk, guidance that reportedly does not apply to state holdings. A report that pushed USTs to a 111-26 low. Fed speak ahead, though the individuals scheduled are, on face value, not particularly interesting. Reminder, the week ahead has NFP on Wednesday and CPI on Friday.
• Bunds followed the above. Interestingly, while they were initially hit by the Bloomberg report, the benchmark bounced off a 128.03 trough in short order. As the report is, potentially, a net-positive for EGBs long-term, as Chinese banks have to reposition their holdings.
• Gilts hit on the ongoing Mandelson/McSweeney fallout. In brief, while McSweeney has resigned, the pressure around Starmer hasn’t abated. Action that saw Gilts gap lower by 42 ticks before slipping another two to a 90.21 base. Since, the benchmark has rebounded by around 30 ticks, but remains in the red by some 10 ticks. The Spectator highlights that some ministers are concerned that Starmer could stand down at any moment. More likely, we could see Cabinet Ministers, privately initially and then possibly publicly, call for the PM to resign, and then they themselves may resign from Starmer’s cabinet if he does not comply.
• China is reportedly urging banks to curb US Treasuries exposure amid market risk, Bloomberg reported citing sources; guidance does not apply to China’s state holdings of US Treasuries.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent gapped lower but then traded with an upward bias as the morning progressed, to currently trade flat; Brent now trading around USD 68.20/bbl, with a recent bid higher led reports that Qatar is pushing the start of its LNG expansion to the end of 2026. US-Iran meetings last week lacked a material outcome, with the pair agreeing to further talks. For the next meeting, the Trump administration has told Iran to arrive with meaningful substance, following the “good meeting” on Friday.
• Precious metals have continued Friday’s rebound, with spot gold regaining the USD 5k/oz handle. Over the weekend, the PBoC announced its 15th straight month of gold buying, which reinforces the key structural driver of major central bank buying of the gold bullion. The dollar has also weakened at the start of the European session, weighed on by the Bloomberg report that China is urging banks to limit USTs exposure. Silver has gradually bid higher as European trade continues, returning back above USD 80/oz and briefly topping above USD 82/oz.
• 3M LME Copper gapped higher but trades muted in a USD 13.02k-13.14k/t band, heading into the Chinese New Year celebrations.
• US Energy Secretary Wright intends to visit Venezuela soon to discuss the future of PDVSA, Politico reported; focussed on improving the management of the Co. Expects Venezuela to hold elections in 18-24 months.
• Vitol Group forecasts peak oil demand to be pushed back to the mid-2030s, with peak demand reaching around 112mln bpd.
• New Zealand energy minister said has shortlisted proposals related to building a first LNG import plant and facility could be operational by 2027 or early 2028.
• Qatar reportedly pushes the start of its LNG expansion to the end of 2026.

Central Banks

• ECB’s Kocher said that inflation expectations are fully anchored and FX movements are factored in; Europe must prepare for a greater financial safe haven role. Policy is appropriate and it would require a change in the environment to change current policy stance.
• ECB’s Simkus said there’s a 50/50 chance that their next move is a hike or cut; rates are at neutral level with growth near potential. Economic environment is fragile.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Indian imports of Russian oil could nearly halve following the White House order, Bloomberg reported citing sources. Within the order, it stated that India has committed to stop directly or indirectly importing Russian oil or import tariffs will be raised.
• Russia’s FSB said an attempted assassination of General Alexeyev was ordered by Ukraine with Poland’s participation, according to Interfax.
• US reportedly aims for a March peace deal in Ukraine, followed by quick elections, according to reported.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Iran’s advisor to Supreme Leader is to visit Oman on Tuesday, Tasnim reported.
• Iranian Parliament Speaker said they discussed defence and security in a secret session.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin is on the backfoot and trades around USD 69k, whilst Ethereum remains just above the USD 2k mark.

US Event Calendar

 

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

 

 

 

 

 

The GLP-1 feud between Hims & Hers Health and Novo Nordisk keeps accelerating by the day.

HIMS rejected again trying to make a criminal racket into a business model https://t.co/URBLu257l8

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 6, 2026

The latest is that Novo is now taking legal action against HIMS, alleging that the telehealth firm “unlawfully mass markets unapproved versions of Novo Nordisk’s FDA-approved semaglutide medicines, deceiving patients and putting their health at risk.”

In late January, Novo released a $149 per month Wegovy pill, with HIMS just days later releasing a GLP-1 copycat pill of Wegovy for $49 a month.

By late last week, FDA Commissioner Marty Makary warned against companies “mass-marketing illegal copycat drugs, claiming they are similar to FDA-approved products.”

FDA will take swift action against companies mass-marketing illegal copycat drugs, claiming they are similar to FDA-approved products.

The FDA cannot verify the quality, safety, or effectiveness of non-approved drugs.

— Dr. Marty Makary (@DrMakaryFDA) February 5, 2026

Then, on Saturday, not even a day after Makary’s comments, HIMS pulled the GLP-1 copycat pill …

*HIMS & HERS TO STOP OFFERING WEIGHT LOSS PILL https://t.co/tiQoqBHf0K

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 7, 2026

Back to Novo’s lawsuit.

Here are the three takeaways:

• Hims & Hers unlawfully mass markets unapproved versions of Novo Nordisk’s FDA-approved semaglutide medicines, deceiving patients and putting their health at risk

• Novo Nordisk takes decisive legal action to stop Hims’ illegal conduct, protect public health, and defend the scientific innovations that deliver better health outcomes to Americans living with serious chronic diseases like obesity and diabetes

• Novo Nordisk is asking the court to permanently ban Hims from selling unapproved, compounded drugs that infringe our patents, and is seeking to recover damages

“Hims & Hers is mass marketing unapproved knock-off versions of Wegovy and Ozempic that evade the FDA’s gold standard review process – that’s dangerous and deceptive to patients, and undermines the scientific innovation and regulatory rigor in place to ensure these treatments are safe and effective,” John F. Kuckelman, senior vice president, Group General Counsel, Global Legal, IP and Security, wrote in a statement.

Kuckelman noted, “We’ve taken legal action to protect the American public and our intellectual property and will continue to work with regulators, law enforcement, and other key stakeholders to ensure patients have access to FDA-approved safe and effective medicines.”

In markets, HIMS shares fell 20% in New York premarket trading after its GLP-1 copycat pill was pulled, with additional pressure from Novo’s lawsuit.

On the other hand, Novo Shares in Denmark moved up 7%. Shares were beaten down last week amid a dismal full-year earnings outlook and HIMS’ GLP-1 copycat pill.

Here’s our coverage on the HIMS-Novo feud:

• “Much-Needed Win”: Novo Shares Jump Most In Nearly Two Years After US Approval Of Wegovy Obesity Pill

• “Big Miss”: Wall Street Disappointed After Dismal Novo Nordisk GLP-1 Sales Outlook, Shares Plunge

• $49 Wegovy Copycat Pill Sparks Selloff In Novo Shares

• HIMS Halts Copycat GLP-1 Pill After FDA Warns Of “Swift Action”

Citi analyst Daniel Grosslight told clients that the FDA’s crackdown on HIMS’ “aggressive compounding practices” suggests there could be further downside if the FDA “completely eliminates or severely curtails” HIMS’ ability to compound GLP-1s. He rates the stock “Sell” and slashed his price target to $16.50 from $30.