iftttwall

A U.S. jury ordered Uber on Thursday to pay $8.5 million to a woman who said she was sexually assaulted by a driver, a verdict that could shape the course of thousands of similar lawsuits pending against the ride-hailing company.

The case, brought by Jaylynn Dean, was the first bellwether trial among more than 3,000 claims consolidated in federal court. Bellwether trials are designed to test legal theories and help both sides assess potential settlement values. Jurors sitting in Phoenix found that the driver acted as an agent of Uber, holding the company responsible for his conduct. They awarded $8.5 million in compensatory damages but declined to impose punitive damages. Dean’s attorneys had sought more than $140 million.

Dean, an Oklahoma resident, sued in 2023, one month after the alleged assault in Arizona. Her complaint argued that Uber knew of a pattern of sexual assaults by drivers but failed to take basic steps to improve rider safety—claims that have followed the company for years and drawn congressional scrutiny.

During closing arguments, Dean’s attorney Alexandra Walsh said Uber had marketed itself as a safe option for women traveling at night, particularly after drinking. “Women know it’s a dangerous world. We know about the risk of sexual assault,” Walsh told jurors. “They made us believe that this was a place that was safe from that.”

Uber has long argued it shouldn’t be held liable for criminal acts committed by drivers using its platform. The company maintains that drivers are independent contractors and that, regardless of classification, it cannot be responsible for actions outside the scope of their duties. “He had no criminal history. None,” Uber attorney Kim Bueno said of the driver during closing arguments, noting that he had completed about 10,000 trips with a near-perfect rating. “Was this foreseeable to Uber? And the answer to that has to be no.”

According to the lawsuit, Dean was intoxicated when she requested a ride from her boyfriend’s home to her hotel. The driver allegedly asked harassing questions during the trip, then stopped the car and raped her.

The trial was overseen by U.S. District Judge Charles Breyer, who is managing the federal cases centralized in San Francisco. Uber also faces more than 500 similar suits in California state court. In the only one of those cases to reach trial so far, a jury last September sided with the company, finding that while Uber had been negligent in its safety measures, that negligence wasn’t a substantial factor in causing the plaintiff’s harm.

The broader financial impact of Thursday’s verdict remains uncertain. Mark Giarelli, an analyst at Morningstar, said the ruling nonetheless highlights the importance of screening measures on app-based platforms. “This underscores the importance of robust background checks on convenience applications such as Uber, Lyft and DoorDash where there is interaction between customers and the supply side—drivers and delivery agents,” he said.

Uber shares fell 1.5% in after-hours trading. Shares of rival Lyft, which faces similar claims, declined 1.8%.

In a statement, an Uber spokesperson said the company would appeal, adding that the jury rejected other claims that Uber was negligent or that its safety systems were defective. “This verdict affirms that Uber acted responsibly and has invested meaningfully in rider safety,” the spokesperson said.

Sarah London, another attorney for Dean, called the decision a validation for plaintiffs across the country. The verdict, she said, “validates the thousands of survivors who have come forward at great personal risk to demand accountability against Uber for its focus on profit over passenger safety.”

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

In the dystopian novel 1984,  George Orwell wrote, “The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”

The true meaning of that line was never more clear than watching the truly bizarre photo op of California governor Gavin Newsom heralding the success of the greatest boondoggle in history: his high-speed train to nowhere.

Without laying a single yard of track after burning $12 billion, Newsom showed a diesel freight train on a conventional track to create the appearance of a working railroad.

I have been writing about this boondoggle for years. Newsom promised years ago that the project would be transformative. It was, but not as he promised.

Voters approved a $9.95 billion bond issue in 2008 after absurdly low estimates of the projected cost. Influential figures and companies stood to make a fortune, and the key was to secure a “buy-in” worth billions, so that it would become increasingly difficult to abandon the project as overruns and delays sent costs soaring.

Now the official estimate of future ridership has dropped by 25% , and it demands billions more to complete a project delayed by decades. Remember that this entire project was meant to create a rail line of only 171 miles. It is projected to exceed $128 billion and could ultimately cost a billion dollars per mile. There are still uncompleted environmental assessments and challenging rail lines through the mountains.

There is still no train and not a yard of track almost 20 years later.

The inspector general, Benjamin Belnap, issued a scathing report on the first phase of the still uncompleted project.  That is only the stretch from Merced to Bakersfield which was supposed to be completed by 2033. Belnap wrote:

“With a smaller remaining schedule envelope and the potential for significant uncertainty and risk during subsequent phases of the project, staying within the 2033 schedule envelope is unlikely. In fact, uncertainty about some parts of the project has increased as the authority has recently made decisions that deviated from the procurement and funding strategies that were part of its plans for staying on schedule.”

Rather than deliver on the promise of high-speed rail from Los Angeles to San Francisco, the Merced-Bakersfield line would now cost $35.3 billion, exceeding the 2008 projection for a complete system.

Merced and Bakersfield have a combined population of roughly 500,000. That works out to roughly $22,000 per person, based on state ridership estimates.

However, Newsom still wants to be president even as citizens are fleeing his state in record numbers.  The “train to nowhere” is a problem. Even the New York Times is writing editorials on whether Newsom will be the next mistake of the Democratic Party.

Newsom’s response is to arrange for gushing columns like Maya Singer’s embarrassing piece in Vogue:

Let’s get this out of the way: He is embarrassingly handsome, his hair seasoned with silver, at ease with his own eminence as he delivers his final State of the State address…

Newsom’s lanky frame was folded onto a sofa a bit too low-slung for him. This made him lean back—away from me. Or it could be that his body language had nothing to do with ergonomics and is a function of Newsom’s quality of being at once gregarious and aloof.”

It is the type of teenybopper heartthrob coverage that Newsom is counting on from the media. It is not the billions burned on a non-existent railway but his glorious hair and “eminence.”

However, others beyond Vogue readers may be interested in his actual record. Hence, the need to release this absurd photo op that would make a propagandist blush:

“All of the hard work behind us. Now we’re going to see the fruits of that. We’re going to start seeing precisely what you see here. Real tracks, real progress.”

It is like paying for a meal at a restaurant and the Chef charging you ten times what was on the menu, not producing the meal for hours, and then showing you a picture of a different dish as a sign of his progress.

The difference is that Newsom has taken almost two decades to deliver and cut the original dish to a fraction of its original size while increasing the price exponentially.

Californians are now captives on a train to nowhere. The state must continue to burn billions because too much is invested economically and politically. They must ride the train with Gavin Newsom to the very end.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”

Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

“If you depreciate the money, it makes everything look like it’s going up.” – Ray Dalio

“People don’t realize how hard it is to speak the truth to a world full of people who don’t realize they’re living a lie” – Edward Snowden

My government overlords and their legacy media propaganda outlets tell me the economy is booming because GDP is between 4% and 5%, the stock market is near all-time highs, inflation is declining, unemployment is low, and AI is going to transform our world for the better. According to their narrative, All is Well. Meanwhile, all hell is breaking loose in every facet of our everyday lives. We are seeing 6 sigma (once in 500 million) events in multiple markets (gold, silver, JPY bonds) within one week. Well functioning non-manipulated markets based on price discovery do not crash by 40% in one day, like silver did last week.

Government shutdowns, ICE shootings, massive welfare program fraud, passing more bloated spending bills, fake staged shutdowns, violent upheaval in Democrat run urban shitholes, uncovering and ignoring the 2020 election fraud, Democrats (with RINO support) desperately trying to stop the SAVE Act voter ID bill to continue their election fraud scheme, and Trump tariffing and threatening every country on earth if they don’t do what he says, makes every day seem like an exhausting slog towards perdition.

And now we know for a fact the world is run by Satan worshiping, vile, child molesting pedophiles, powerful sadistic billionaires, who use politicians, bankers, and their propaganda media whores to coverup their crimes against humanity. The information which has seen the light of day is revolting, disgusting, criminal, and makes any normal person physically ill. Imagine the material they haven’t released or have already destroyed. The evilness, degeneracy, and immorality of their acts is incomprehensible to the average person trying to live a moral life, earn a living and raise a family.

What is really stupefying to me is no one other than Epstein and Maxwell have been arrested. And it is pretty clear the Trump DOJ has absolutely no plans to arrest anyone for the most heinous crimes ever documented. Meanwhile, Trump rages against Thomas Massie, who was solely responsible for forcing the release of these incriminating documents, while being completely silent regarding the evil men who committed these despicable depraved acts upon children.

More revealing is the complete blackout on all the legacy media outlets of the Epstein file release. Nothing. Nada. Zilch. It’s almost as if they have been instructed to circle the wagons and pretend the Epstein files don’t exist. Remember the videos of dozens of news anchors mouthing the exact same propaganda slogans during the covid scamdemic? Our government and media are completely controlled by evil men wielding undue influence and power over every aspect of our lives. Without Twitter and some dedicated alt-media websites, the truth about the true nature of how our world actually runs would be completely silenced.

Our overlords use the CIA, Mossad, NSA, FBI and other means to control the narrative and lead the ignorant masses to their demise. It is absolutely true the MSM being silent about the Epstein files means at least 80% of the population has absolutely no idea they were even released. And even if they know, after decades of government school indoctrination, they are incurious and incapable of critical thought, just as the pedophile psychopaths planned. Aldous Huxley was right about so many things, especially how our masters deal with the truth.

“Great is truth, but still greater, from a practical point of view, is silence about truth” – Aldous Huxley

Silence about the truth is their plan and they continue to implement it with deceptive gusto, while manipulating the propaganda levers of mind control through the media, Wall Street, the DC swamp, billionaire funded NGOs creating chaos across the land, and bought off social media influencers pushing whatever narrative they are instructed to spew by Israel and their child sacrificing co-conspirators throughout the government, finance, media, and entertainment industries. The narrative is ALL IS WELL, when anyone capable of examining the facts knows all is not well. In fact, our current situation is awful and deteriorating by the minute. I will briefly examine whether things are well in the markets, the economy, personal finances, politics, and global relations.

The standard response by those promoting the ALL IS WELL narrative is the stock market being within 2% of an all-time high. Scott Bessent and his band of hedge fund acolytes know they can manipulate the market upward whenever Trump does or says something astoundingly stupid. It can work in the short term because daily moves are based on emotion and momentum trading, but over the long term, earnings, valuations and reality will always win the day. The stock market valuation is currently 3 standard deviations above the long-term average and 45% above the Dotcom bubble valuation. We appear to be in a bubble seeking a pin.

There is nothing like having the most overvalued market in history with margin debt at an all-time high as Wall Street has lured the suckers in at the top. Smart money exiting and selling to the noobs who have leveraged themselves in this “can’t miss opportunity of a lifetime”, is par for the course this century, as we pop our 4th bubble in 25 years. The engineered take down of gold and silver last week was violent and rapid, with no escape for the leveraged. The bloodbath when the margin calls begin to cascade during the coming stock market collapse will be a sight to see. It will be blood in the streets once again. Some people never learn.

Charts become out of date pretty quickly when markets move as crazily as they have over the last month. Despite the USD only falling by about 1% since Powell’s August 21 speech confirming more rate cuts and the initiation of QE to infinity when markets were at record highs and the economy was supposedly booming, gold and silver took notice by soaring by 46% and 120% respectively. And this is after last week’s crash. When gold and silver act like meme stocks, all is not well beneath the surface of this economic system. Something is broken, on par with September 2019.

When you hear the bubble headed bimbos on CNBC cackle like Kamala about the all-time high in the S&P 500, you might want to keep the chart below in mind. The stock market measured in gold is at a 12 year low and is exactly where it was during the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. Those vacuous nitwits will never tell you gold has been the investment of the 21st century, going up by a factor of 17.5 versus a factor of 5 for the S&P 500. Gold isn’t really going up, the value of your perpetually printed fiat is going down.

If you want to know the real reason gold and silver have soared and inflation numbers have begun to go higher, look no further than Powell and his Fed cronies firing up the old fiat printer by printing like we are in a financial crisis. Why would the Fed need to rapidly expand the money supply, cut rates by 175 basis points, and begin new QE bond purchases if ALL WAS WELL? Because all is unwell. This Potemkin economy is nothing but kabuki theater smoke and mirrors, with the average person struggling to survive, seeing utility, food, rent, insurance, taxes, tolls, and all daily living expenses continuing to outpace their income.

While Trump, his minions, and the banking cabal pretend the USD is solid as a rock, the rest of the world (mostly China) is in the midst of de-dollarizing their holdings. The tide has turned as the tsunami of inflation unleashed in 1913 has already wiped out 97% of the purchasing power of the USD. This flailing empire of debt is completely dependent upon the USD being the world’s reserve currency and will do anything (including war and kidnapping other world leaders) to maintain that supremacy. But, $2 trillion annual deficits, a $38.6 trillion national debt, over $200 trillion in unfunded welfare liabilities, and trying to provoke World War 3 should make the final 3% depreciation of the USD a real extravaganza of wealth destruction, bloody war, and societal collapse.

If ALL IS WELL, why has Trump used every possible means to bully Powell into cutting interest rates drastically, even demanding 1% rates again? If the economy is as fantastic as he says and the stock market is at all-time highs, why would we need much lower rates? The Fed began cutting in September of 2024, reducing rates by 1.75%. The 10 Year Treasury was at 3.65% when Powell began cutting. Today it is at 4.27%. For the math challenged, that is a .62% INCREASE since the Fed started cutting. The cuts have done nothing to make housing more affordable, while drastically reducing the interest income senior citizens and conservative savers were earning on their money market accounts.

The real reason Powell has cut rates and Trump wants them cut more is because they are both beholden and controlled by the banking cabal and billionaire financiers. The titans of finance are sitting on hundreds of billions of unrealized losses due to their purchase of government bonds when interest rates were 0%. In a financial crisis, those unrealized losses would become realized losses due to forced selling. Trump, Powell and Warsh know what is coming and will do anything to protect their billionaire brethren, while throwing grandma and you under the bus.

The selection of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chairman is a bit of a head scratcher, because he has spent years criticizing Yellen and Powell about keeping interest rates too low and implementing QE to infinity in response to the Fed/Wall Street created financial debt disaster in 2008. He is supposedly a hawk, when Trump wants an ultra-dove who will slash rates. Trump has also done a 180 on home prices, as he declared during his campaign he wanted them 30% lower to help young people, and now he wants them higher to keep Boomers rich and his Wall Street pals richer.

We currently have the most overvalued home prices in history, 60% higher than the 2005 bubble, and Trump wants the bubble to get bigger. After the last bubble, prices fell 30% over the next seven years, until the Fed, their Wall Street owners, and the government colluded to drive prices up by having hedge funds buy up the excess inventory, initiating the current bubble. I don’t know what will prick this bubble, but it is clearly unsustainable, as the average person can no longer afford to buy a home. A 50% decline over several years would be a best case scenario, but I believe the coming financial crisis will ignite a contagion that can’t be stopped.

The housing market is currently frozen, as sellers refuse to reduce prices and buyers can’t afford the current prices. This is why Trump desperately wants 3% mortgage rates again. Ain’t happening. The devastating inflation created by the Fed’s ZIRP has not been unwound. Inflation helps the banking cabal and billionaires, but destroys the standard of living for the average American. The curious selection of Warsh seems like a setup for when they “pull it”. Does Trump want a fall guy for when it all goes to hell, or is this all part of the Great Taking/CBDC plan to subjugate the masses in poverty, while the satanic demon child sacrificers reap the riches and increase their power and control over the world?

While financial and housing markets are simultaneously the most overvalued in world history, the average person trying to just live their life, raise a family, maintain a decent standard of living, and go on a modest annual vacation to the beach or mountains, is more financially stressed than they have ever been. The people who are not stressed are the 0.1% who rule the world (aka Epstein friends and family). They control over 14% of the country’s net worth, up from less than 9% in 2003. This has happened under the rule of both parties. The ruling class has engineered the financial system in way that siphons the riches to them, while steadily depleting the wealth of the masses.

Klaus Schwab’s Great Reset vision is materializing before our very eyes. The bottom 80% own nothing, have less and less to spend, but they aren’t very happy. When 80% of the population is seeing their standard of living decline rapidly, while observing the wealthy getting wealthier, and the evil elite normalizing pedophilia, child mutilation, and degeneracy as a lifestyle, the groundwork for violent revolution should be underway, with guillotines and gallows being constructed across the land.

The average person has depleted their savings and now lives month to month on their credit card, paying 20% interest to the Wall Street cabal. This is the way our overlords want it. The plebs are so busy trying to survive, while AI replaces their jobs, they have no time or hope, keeping them from ever revolting. The proles will never revolt because they don’t even know they are oppressed.

“The masses never revolt of their own accord, and they never revolt merely because they are oppressed. Indeed, so long as they are not permitted to have standards of comparison, they never even become aware that they are oppressed” – Orwell’s 1984

No matter how hard the propaganda machine insists the economy is great, the average person knows they are being screwed over by the ruling class and lied to by their president and his government apparatchiks. Consumer confidence is at a 12 year low, and falling, because consumers are out of money. When, even using the massively manipulated CPI promulgated by your government overlords, your dollar purchases 26% less than it did in 2019, while your income rose 15%, your confidence might be eroding. In reality, we all know prices are up at least 50%, no matter what Big Brother declares with certitude.

When it comes to consumers, especially the young, does the following chart seem to support the ALL IS WELL narrative? The Biden student loan “pause” is over and 3.6 million young adults who were lured into believing a degree in Transgender African Lesbian Studies would get them a high paying job FAFO. This is just student loan debt. Charts showing auto loan debt, credit card debt, and mortgage debt are all showing delinquency rates at the highest rates in over a decade. Yes, the richest of the rich are doing fabulously well as their stock portfolios soar and their AI scam continues to rake in more fools, but the average working stiff knows they have been abandoned by the people they elected, like always. Satanic Pedophiles rule!!!!

I believe the only thing keeping this shitshow from crashing down immediately is the no hire – no fire jobs market which has been in effect for the last year. If you still have some sort of job and can make the minimum payment on your credit card and your monthly rent payment, financial Armageddon is temporarily delayed. It is defaults on debts that begin the banquet of consequences for the economy, corporations, politicians, and bankers. We are essentially in an extend and pretend phase which is transitioning into another debt debacle crisis. Job cuts will be the spark that ignites the powder-keg of debt. Job cuts in January were 35% higher than last January and double the number in December. Not supportive of the ALL IS WELL narrative.

Meanwhile, on an annual basis the Challenger, Gray & Christmas job cut announcements in 2025 were 58% higher than 2024, and the highest in a decade, excluding the Covid scam year of 2020. The trend is not Trump’s friend.

The number of recently announced job cuts by major employers does not bode well for 2026:

• US Government: 307,000 employees
• UPS: 78,000 employees
• Amazon: 30,000 employees
• Intel: 25,000 employees
• Nissan: 20,000 employees
• Nestle: 16,000 employees
• Microsoft: 15,000 employees
• Bosch: 13,000 employees
• Dell: 12,000 employees
• Verizon: 13,000 employees
• Accenture: 11,000 employees
• Ford: 11,000 employees
• Novo Nordisk: 9,000 employees

The consumer confidence of AI and robots is probably at all-time highs, if they measured such stuff.

Based on the facts, not narratives, ALL IS NOT WELL and it will never be well again. So what does this mean for you and me? The mid-term elections are in ten months. Based on history, the president’s party loses seats 90% of the time. Based upon this do nothing GOP congress accomplishing nothing beneficial to the average person, Trump will surely lose the 6 seat majority House by at least 25 seats and at least a couple Senate seats. The GOP will not even pass the SAVE Act to secure honest elections. The Uni-party doesn’t seem to want honest elections. Trump’s approval rating continues to plummet and his daily unhinged posts on Truth Social are not helping. I expect Trump to act in an even more authoritarian manner as the elections approach. The MAGA NPCs will approve.

The real question in my mind is whether they “pull it” before or after the mid-terms. Based on Trumps actions, totally contrary to what he campaigned on and promised his voters, I have begun to believe he was installed to usher in another global financial collapse, with his “solution” being totalitarian government control of everything and everyone. The First and Second Amendment will be discarded. When the financial system enters collapse mode, they will bail-in (take) your 40lks, investment accounts and bank accounts in order to “Save the System”. All good patriots will go along, just like they did during the Covid plandemic. Your beloved overlords will dole out a certain amount of CBDC tokens to replace the money they stole from you.

Trump is one of them, as revealed by the Epstein files. When your government redacts the names of the pedophiles who raped children rather than the victims, you know your government does not represent you. The release of these monstrously despicable documents, with no effort to prosecute or arrest anyone, is meant to make us feel helpless and powerless to hold these fiends accountable. We are ruled by demonic, child sacrificing, satanists and we are not voting our way out of this. They seem to want violent upheaval, war, and chaos across the globe because they think it will benefit them. No one is coming to rescue us, because they are all in on it. After listening to Putin’s assessment of the West, you know why they are trying to destroy Russia.

“The West is being run by satanic pedophiles. They want to normalize pedophilia. They got accustomed for centuries to filling their bellies with humans flesh and their pockets with money. But the vampire ball is coming to an end.” – Vladimir Putin

We are truly in an existential battle between good and evil. The sinister  psychopaths and their fiendish acolytes wield their power and wealth like a cudgel against the common man. They take joy in the misery and suffering of others. This is nothing but a game to them, and we are all expendable pieces on their board. Time is growing short and trust in any and all politicians, bankers, academics, and media personalities has dissolved. Our future as a country and a people will depend on the individual choices of millions of good people over the next few years. We outnumber these Satan worshiping deviants by millions. The law does not matter, because they wrote the law. They need to pay for their crimes by any means necessary. Buy more guns and ammo. Prepare for the ultimate battle.

“The greedy elite would rather be extremely rich in a suffering nation than modestly rich in a successful nation. The greater the misery, the greater their power, since power is the difference in wealth and influence between one person and another.” –Jesse,  September 2012

Update (Saturday):

The official Hims & Hers Health X account, “Hims & Hers Comms,” revealed in the early afternoon (a very convenient time to drop news) that its newly launched $49 a month copycat GLP-1 pill, positioned against Novo Nordisk’s $149 a month Wegovy pill, will no longer be offered.

*HIMS & HERS TO STOP OFFERING WEIGHT LOSS PILL https://t.co/tiQoqBHf0K

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 7, 2026

“Since launching the compounded semaglutide pill on our platform, we’ve had constructive conversations with stakeholders across the industry,” HIMS wrote on X.

It continued, “As a result, we have decided to stop offering access to this treatment. We remain committed to the millions of Americans who depend on us for access to safe, affordable, and personalized care.”

Since launching the compounded semaglutide pill on our platform, we’ve had constructive conversations with stakeholders across the industry. As a result, we have decided to stop offering access to this treatment. We remain committed to the millions of Americans who depend on us…

— Hims & Hers Comms (@HimsHersComms) February 7, 2026

HIMS’ decision to pull the $49 a month copycat GLP-1 pill comes about two days after FDA Commissioner Marty Makary warned against companies “mass-marketing illegal copycat drugs, claiming they are similar to FDA-approved products.”

Makary’s statement was directly pointed at HIMS.

FDA will take swift action against companies mass-marketing illegal copycat drugs, claiming they are similar to FDA-approved products.

The FDA cannot verify the quality, safety, or effectiveness of non-approved drugs.

— Dr. Marty Makary (@DrMakaryFDA) February 5, 2026

For HIMS bulls, brace for Monday, shaping up to be one of those gap-down mornings…

* * * 

Hims & Hers Health’s $49-a-month copycat GLP-1 pill, priced far below Novo Nordisk’s $149-a-month Wegovy pill, can be seen as part of a “GLP-1 price war” between the telehealth company and Big Pharma giant.

It appears that HIMS’ strategy has been an access-and-pricing arbitrage play: mass-market a copycat GLP-1 first, then address any regulatory fallout later.

In pure ‘FAFO’ fashion, HIMS is finding out very fast: hours after Thursday’s press release touting its new GLP-1 pill for $49 per month to take on Wegovy, FDA Commissioner Marty Makary wrote on X that his agency will take “swift action against companies mass-marketing illegal copycat drugs, claiming they are similar to FDA-approved products.”

Makary noted, “The FDA cannot verify the quality, safety, or effectiveness of non-approved drugs.”

FDA will take swift action against companies mass-marketing illegal copycat drugs, claiming they are similar to FDA-approved products.

The FDA cannot verify the quality, safety, or effectiveness of non-approved drugs.

— Dr. Marty Makary (@DrMakaryFDA) February 5, 2026

For context, last June, Novo terminated its partnership, citing the telehealth company’s “illegal mass compounding and deceptive marketing.”

On Tuesday, Novo reported a disappointing full-year outlook, warning of a tough year in the GLP-1 market. Besides HIMS, the company faces competition from Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, gaining ever-larger market share in the U.S.

Makary’s comments on X sent HIMS shares down about 7.5% in premarket trading in New York. Shares of Novo in Europe are up about 4.5%.

HIMS bubble unwinds…

We must also note that Makary’s swift comments about copycat GLP-1 drugs were likely a nudge from Novo, as shares have been obliterated this week.

Goldman’s Novo superbull James Quigley stated earlier this week, “FY26 is a reset year with respect to the pricing aspect of the GLP-1 market.”

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Feb. 6 that the United States has given both Ukraine and Russia a June deadline to reach an agreement to end the nearly four-year war, adding that Washington is likely to increase pressure on both sides if fighting continues beyond that point.

Speaking to reporters in Kyiv, Zelenskyy said U.S. officials have outlined a timeline aimed at securing an end to hostilities by early summer, as the Trump administration steps up diplomatic efforts to halt Europe’s largest conflict since World War II.

“The Americans are proposing the parties end the war by the beginning of this summer,” Zelenskyy said, according to remarks embargoed until Feb. 7. He added that Washington wants “a clear schedule of all events” and would likely apply pressure “precisely according to this schedule” if progress stalls.

Zelenskyy said U.S. officials have made clear they intend to “do everything” to bring the war to an end by June. He did not specify what form pressure might take or whether it would apply equally to Kyiv and Moscow.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment or confirmation.

US-Brokered Talks Continue

Zelenskyy’s comments came after the latest round of U.S.-brokered trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi involving representatives from the United States, Ukraine, and Russia. All sides described the discussions as constructive, and a Russia–Ukraine prisoner swap was announced, but no cease-fire or political agreement was reached.

U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters on Feb. 6 aboard Air Force One that “we had very, very good talks today, having to do with Russia, Ukraine,” adding that “something could be happening.”

Trump did not provide details on the discussions or address whether a formal deadline had been communicated to the warring parties.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said the Feb. 4–5 talks focused on creating conditions for a lasting peace and included discussions on cease-fire implementation and monitoring mechanisms.

“Ukraine expresses its gratitude to [President] Donald Trump for his leadership in advancing efforts aimed at ending the war,” Umerov said.

Russian presidential representative and Russian Direct Investment Fund chief Kirill Dmitriev, who was present at the talks, reported that there was “good, positive movement forward” in the negotiations.

“As you know, we are actively working with the Trump administration to restore Russia–U.S. economic relations, including through the Russian-American Economic Cooperation Group,” he said, according to Russian state-owned news agency TASS.

The delegations agreed to a mutual exchange of 157 prisoners of war each—the first such exchange in five months—and said further talks would continue in the coming weeks.

Zelenskyy said Feb. 6 he had received an initial report from Ukraine’s negotiating team and was expecting a full in-person briefing in Kyiv.

“Further meetings are planned in the near future, likely in the United States,” he said, adding that Ukraine remains open to “all workable formats” that could bring peace closer.

He said that any settlement must ensure Russia “has no appetite to continue the war” and receives “no reward for its aggression.”

Despite renewed diplomacy, Moscow and Kyiv remain far apart on core issues.

Russia has insisted that Ukraine withdraw from the eastern industrial region of Donbas, where fighting remains intense. The Kremlin has described full control of the region as a key condition for any peace agreement.

Ukraine still controls about 20 percent of the Donetsk region and has repeatedly rejected Russian demands to cede the territory.

The diplomatic push comes as Russia continues to intensify attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

Overnight into Feb. 7, Russia launched a large-scale air assault involving more than 400 drones and around 40 missiles, Zelenskyy said. The strikes targeted power generation facilities and electricity distribution substations across several regions.

“Every day, Russia could choose real diplomacy, but it chooses new strikes,” Zelenskyy said in a post on X, accusing Moscow of using winter conditions as leverage.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX is apparently reorienting its near-term space roadmap, pushing back a planned 2026 uncrewed Mars mission and focusing efforts on NASA’s Artemis program, with Starship’s uncrewed moon mission targeted for early next year.

According to Wall Street Journal sources, the rocket company told investors this week that Musk will prioritize a moon mission, with a Mars mission to follow. The lunar landing with a Starship rocket is slated for March 2027. The person noted that the moon mission will be uncrewed and will not include humanoid or wheeled ground-based robots.

The space pivot comes after SpaceX acquired Musk’s AI company, xAI, earlier this week, combining his rocket and satellite business with his artificial intelligence startup to accelerate plans for a fleet of low-Earth-orbit data centers.

The deal gives SpaceX a valuation of $1 trillion, and xAI a value of $250 billion. The combined company’s valuation of $1.25 trillion was announced to employees in a memo on Monday, with an IPO slated for later this year that could raise as much as $50 billion.

Kardashev II civilization or bust.

Starship will get us to the Moon and Mars. pic.twitter.com/L9vhMOdDPK

— Tesla Owners Silicon Valley (@teslaownersSV) February 7, 2026

Even though Musk previously dismissed the moon as a “distraction” and argued for Mars first, it appears NASA may have nudged him, especially as Jeff Bezos’s rocket company, Blue Origin, has paused space tourism launches to focus on the moon.

In a memo earlier this week, Musk told employees that the pivot will pave the way for the U.S. to construct a permanent base on the moon.

“The capabilities we unlock by making space-based data centers a reality will fund and enable self-growing bases on the moon, an entire civilization on Mars, and ultimately expansion to the universe,” he said.

Last month, Musk told a podcaster that getting to Mars this year is becoming a “lower probability” and “somewhat of a distraction.”

Also, this week has been busy for NASA’s Artemis lunar program, as the Artemis II crewed mission around the moon has experienced several setbacks, and the next launch date could be early March.

All this upcoming launch activity and the return to the moon will certainly drive a new space investing theme once the SpaceX IPO debuts. We have outlined multiple ways to profit from the buildout of the space industry from low Earth orbit to lunar operations and beyond (read here, here, and here).

Authored by James Rickards via the Daily Reckoning,

Our specialty is forecasting. We use multiple branches of science in our predictive analytic models including complexity theory, behavioral psychology, Bayes Theorem, neural networks (a form of artificial intelligence or AI), inference, subject matter expertise and good old-fashioned intuition to arrive at the market and geopolitical predictions we offer our readers.

Our track record speaks for itself. We predicted Brexit when polls gave it only a 25% chance. We predicted Trump’s 2016 victory when polls gave it only a 5% chance. We were the only publication in the world to predict the exact number of Trump’s electoral votes in the 2024 election (312 votes; no one else predicted he would win all seven swing states). There are many other examples. Our forecasts on gold and silver prices are followed all over the world.

But science and applied mathematics are not the only ways to do forecasting. There’s ample room for imagination and creative fiction. In fact, all forms of forecasting are fiction because the events predicted haven’t happened yet. They only become “true” when the forecast plays out.

In this genre, you can think of Jules Verne, who wrote about Captain Nemo and the Nautilus in Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Sea (1869), decades before systems such as electric propulsion, long-duration submersion and life-support systems were used in submarines.

Another great science fiction writer is Arthur C. Clarke whose 2001: A Space Odyssey (1968) described adventures in space that still have not been achieved but are being actively pursued by Elon Musk and others. The pseudonymous author Big Serge is a current master of this genre as it applies to military affairs and geopolitics.

Unlikely Scenarios (For Now)

With this as background, let’s jump into the creative end of the pool and offer some scenarios that are definitely fictional (as of now) and not hard forecasts (that’s for another time), but rather scenarios that if not likely are at least possible and worth your consideration. In some ways, the more unlikely the scenario the greater the impact on your portfolio if it does come to pass.

Trump has backed away from his threat to take Greenland by force if a deal could not be worked out with Denmark, which controls the territory today. But Trump is famously volatile and could reverse his views in a minute if the newly proposed framework for transferring Greenland to the U.S. on some basis yet to be announced falls through.

What if NATO members such as the UK, Denmark, France and Germany send their armed forces to defend Greenland? None of those powers are particularly strong and it’s unlikely they could muster more than two brigades for this purpose (about 5,000 troops in total).

Under the direction of U.S. NorthCom, with a U.S. aircraft carrier battle group, cyber warfare, drones and elite airborne troops trained in Arctic warfare, the U.S. could put those NATO troops into full retreat with substantial casualties on their side in a day or two at the most.

The U.S. would gain Greenland, but the armed confrontation would be the end of NATO. That’s not necessarily a bad thing from the U.S. perspective. NATO members have not been paying anywhere near their share of the costs of military preparedness.

The War in Ukraine has shown that most NATO weapons, including Patriot anti-missile batteries, Abrams and Challenger tanks, HIMARS precision-guided artillery, Bradley fighting vehicles and cruise missiles are obsolete when up against Russian hypersonic missiles, drones, anti-missile defenses and GPS jamming techniques. NATO is probably falling apart anyway, but a debacle in Greenland would accelerate that ending.

The Great Powers Would Rule

Without NATO, the Baltic Republics could be rapidly invaded and annexed by Russia. They already have large Russian-speaking populations and were part of the former Soviet Union from 1945 to 1991. This annexation would be a tragedy for some but a homecoming for others.

The major NATO powers might form a new military alliance centered around France and its nuclear weapons. Yet, the U.S. would still have allies in Europe including Italy, Hungary, Romania, Slovenia, the Slovak Republic, Poland and Greece.

These countries form a kind of wall between Russia and Western Europe. Europe could find itself cut off from Russian natural gas because of Ukraine and also cut off from U.S. natural gas because of the battle for Greenland.

With the U.S. controlling its own oil and that of Venezuela and Guyana, and Arab countries siding with the U.S., Western Europe could find itself with almost no energy supplies apart from its pathetic patchwork of windmills and solar farms and French nuclear reactors. Western European manufacturing would quickly grind to a halt.

With the U.S. grabbing Venezuela and Greenland and Russia helping itself to the Baltic Republics, China could decide that the time was ripe to seize Taiwan. The U.S. might allow this to happen on a view that its sphere of influence is the Western Hemisphere through the Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine.

Of course, the U.S. would destroy Taiwan’s semiconductor fabrication and research facilities on its way out the door. The U.S. would rapidly expand its indigenous semiconductor manufacturing while mining the Western states of the U.S. and Greenland for rare earths.

Have you heard of the Chagos Islands? They’re an archipelago of seven atolls including more than 60 islands lying 300 miles south of the Maldives in the Indian Ocean. The Chagos are controlled by the UK as the British Indian Ocean Territory.

Except for their natural beauty, they would be unremarkable but for the fact that the Chagos includes the island of Diego Garcia, which houses a U.S. Naval Support Facility. That facility has been used to launch B-52, B-1 and B-2 bomber attacks throughout the Middle East including the Gulf War, the Global War on Terror and the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan.

Keir Starmer, Prime Minister of the UK has agreed to cede the Chagos to the island nation of Mauritius, also in the Indian Ocean closer to Madagascar. The UK would take back a lease to Diego Garcia, but Mauritius would be sovereign. Trump has called the Chagos deal “stupid”. Would Trump take over the Chagos Islands to prevent the transfer to Mauritius? Possibly yes. That would be one more nail in the NATO coffin.

Japan sensing that its alliance with the U.S. might be on shaky ground could decide to build its own nuclear weapons to deter Chinese threats. Japan has long had this technology and engineering capability. Now it would decide that all bets are off and it needs to move as quickly as possible to become a nuclear military power.

In these scenarios, the Great Powers of Russia, China, the U.S. and possibly Japan would strike out on their own and seize as much adjacent territory as they could. The small powers like Greenland, Venezuela, the Baltic Republics and the Chagos Islands would be gobbled up. And the middle powers like the UK, France and Germany would watch helplessly as their assumptions about the shape of the world melted like ice cubes on a hot day.

Big Serge writes, “Our history is full of great wars which began in seemingly small places: the Lexington Common, Fort Sumter, an Archduke’s touring car in the back alleys of Sarajevo.” Could Greenland or Guyana or even the Chagos Islands be the next Sarajevo?

That may seem unlikely. But a look back at the last seven years that brought us COVID, twenty-million illegal immigrants, the War in Ukraine, a senile Biden, the War in Gaza, B-2 bombers over Iran, the seizure of Venezuela, two impeachments and the reelection of Donald Trump should teach us that the least likely scenarios happen with much greater frequency than conventional forecasts expect.

We will stick to our rigorous forecasting techniques. But we will also find a place for fictional scenarios of the kind described above. Fiction has a funny way of becoming fact.

Ukraine and Russia have just wrapped up a second round of US-mediated negotiations in Abu Dhabi, but overnight Ukrainian cities were hit with another massive aerial attack on the national power grid.

“Russia is carrying out another massive attack on the Ukrainian power grid facilities,” grid operator Ukrenergo said on Saturday. “Due to the damage caused by the enemy, emergency outages have been applied in most regions.”

Ukrenergo said in its Telegram statement, “Currently, the attack is still ongoing. Restoration work will begin as soon as the security situation allows.”

Dozens of missiles and hundreds of drones were unleashed, in what has become an almost nightly reality. Already rolling emergency blackouts have impacted towns and cities across Ukraine, but this fresh assault resulted in more blackouts.

According to some specifics in the NY Times:

The overnight strikes hit high-voltage transmission lines that are used to transmit electricity nationwide and that form the backbone of Ukraine’s power grid, as well as power plants and substations, said Denys Shmyhal, the country’s energy minister.

The damage prompted Kyiv to request emergency electricity assistance from Poland, Mr. Shmyhal said on social media. The strikes were the latest in a series of Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure during a winter freeze.

Mr. Shmyhal said the bombardment on Saturday had forced operators at nuclear power plants to “unload” reactor units, meaning that workers reduced power output or shut down reactors as a precautionary measure when external electricity supplies became unstable.

Supplies were already in a dire situation after the even larger Feb. 3rd Russian attack on the energy grid.

At this point the capital area is expected to receive only four to six hours of electricity per day in February. Some residents are without heat and water, amid dangerously frigid temperatures, which in recent days have plunged down to -25°C (-13°F).

The European Union and NATO have been scrambling to come up with ways to both keep the lights on in Ukraine and defend its cities and vital infrastructure from being devastated by Russia.

Kyiv calls for Polish aid after ‘massive’ Russian attack on Ukraine power grid
➡️ https://t.co/dI7XMPCOKg pic.twitter.com/NHQCazQhgA

— FRANCE 24 English (@France24_en) February 7, 2026

All of this is part of Moscow’s attrition strategy, knowing it can outlast, out-gun, and out-manpower Ukraine. This is also about inflicting broader pain and suffering among the population, in hopes of destabilizing the Zelensky government enough to replace him.

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmnentAdvice.com,

The market got off to a strong start in 2026, with investors chasing industrials, materials, and commodity-related stocks as the reflation narrative gained traction. The “reflation narrative” is the belief that a range of policies will boost the rate of economic growth in the U.S. without triggering inflation. As I discussed at our recent 2026 Investment Summit, the markets are banking on the effects of the passage of the OBBBA, tax cuts, and deregulation to fuel earnings and profit growth in 2026.

Furthermore, the markets are focused on the Federal Reserve with expectations of further rate cuts and easing of monetary policy. All of these actions aim to increase consumption, investment, and employment, which in turn will increase wages and corporate revenues.

Over the last few months, the reflation narrative has re-emerged. After years of tightening by global central banks to tame post-pandemic inflation, the focus has started to shift. Inflation has moderated in the U.S., and growth remains positive, albeit soft in some sectors. Policymakers and market participants are watching for signs that rate cuts could soon be back on the table, particularly as employment softens.

Wall Street strategists and economists are optimistic. They argue that the worst of the inflation fight is over and believe central banks will continue to ease as economic growth stabilizes while inflation edges closer to its targets. In turn, they expect this will feed into earnings growth and a further expansion of profit margins.

The bull case for reflation is rooted in falling inflation, positive real wage growth, continued fiscal support, and a resilient labor market. These factors suggest that consumer demand will remain stable or even improve if borrowing costs fall. The combination of lower interest rates and improving consumption sets the stage for rising corporate revenues and higher stock market valuations.

Several recent data points support the reflation view:

• U.S. headline inflation dropped from 9.1% in mid-2022 to 2.7% by the end of 2025.

• Real wage growth has turned positive lifting household purchasing power.

• The unemployment rate remained close to 4%, signaling continued labor market strength.

• Fiscal policy remains expansive, with the U.S. running deficits near 6% of GDP.

• The Fed has stopped hiking and begun cutting rates.

If these trends hold, the reflation narrative gains credibility. However, there is also a risk that a resurgence of economic growth leads to inflation and interest rates rising, which could undermine an already overvalued market. In this post, we will examine the bull and bear cases for the reflation narrative and discuss how to navigate them.

Bull Case for Reflation and Growth

As noted above, the reflation narrative rests on three key arguments: the OBBBA impact, deregulation and reform, and rate cuts.

The byproduct of those impacts is that corporate earnings should accelerate. Analyst forecasts for S&P 500 earnings in 2026 are expected to increase by double digits for the bottom 493 stocks, which follows negative to muted growth in 2023, 2024, and 2025.

Furthermore, the hope is that if inflation cools and input costs stabilize (i.e., reduced employment), companies may expand margins further, as noted above. Sectors such as technology, materials, industrials, and consumer discretionary should lead the way.

While the U.S. consumer remains resilient, credit card delinquencies are rising but still below historical peaks. Given that personal consumption accounts for nearly 70% of GDP, it is real disposable incomes that are the link to the growth story. The hope is that incomes will rise, even if employment declines, thanks to increases in productivity.

Lastly, fiscal spending continues at high levels. For now, deficit spending combined with private sector investment (i.e., data center buildout), supports the reflation narrative. In 2026

If these conditions persist, reflation becomes a self-reinforcing cycle.

Growth picks up => Earnings rise => Market valuations hold or expand.

In turn:

Investor sentiment improves => Asset prices rise => Wealth creation feeds consumption.

If the reflation narrative holds, leadership remains in cyclicals, industrials, financials, and materials. Technology can benefit too, especially from falling discount rates. As future cash flows are valued more attractively, growth stocks could continue to rally.

However, there is a fly in the ointment to be aware of.

Bear Case That Could Derail Reflation

If the reflation narrative comes to fruition, as expected, strong economic growth will require increased demand. That increased demand will be reflected in rising wages and higher commodity prices, which will translate into a rise in inflation. In other words, it is difficult to get “reflation” without also getting “inflation.”

For the markets, if inflation does not stay contained, the Fed may not ease as markets expect. In fact, rate cuts could be delayed or reversed, which would derail the reflation setup.

Key risks include:

• Services inflation remains sticky.

• Rent and shelter components lag and could re-accelerate.

• Oil prices rise on geopolitical shocks.

• Labor markets remain tight, which drives wage inflation.

If inflation expectations rise, bond yields would move higher. That would hurt valuations for both stocks and real estate. Higher long-term rates would tighten financial conditions and reduce the stimulus effect. For now, inflation expectations remain anchored to slower economic growth, but if that reverses, so should expectations.

Another major risk is global weakness. China’s economy remains fragile, characterized by low confidence and significant debt overhangs. Europe faces stagnant growth and energy insecurity. In the event of a global slowdown, which is a likely possibility, such a scenario would reduce demand for exports, lower corporate profits, and put pressure on U.S. manufacturing.

Furthermore, while the current debt and deficit levels are nowhere near a “crisis” level, they are at levels that reduce economic growth as non-productive debt diverts revenues from growth. As Stuart Sparks of Deutsche Bank noted previously:

“History teaches us that although investments in productive capacity can in principle raise potential growth and r* in such a way that the debt incurred to finance fiscal stimulus is paid down over time (r-g<0), it turns out that there is little evidence that it has ever been achieved in the past.

Rising federal debt as a percentage of GDP has historically been associated with declines in estimates of r* – the need to save to service debt depresses potential growth. The broad point is that aggressive spending is necessary, but not sufficient. Spending must be designed to raise productive capacity, potential growth, and r*. Absent true investment, public spending can lower r*, passively tightening for a fixed monetary stance.”

Of course, we would be remiss not to mention that stock market valuations remain elevated. The S&P 500 trades at a price-to-forward-earnings ratio of approximately 22x. At such levels, it is difficult not to question whether the reflation narrative has already been priced into the current market. If that is the case, and earnings disappoint, or rates remain high, a valuation correction could occur.

Given the bull and bear case for the reflation narrative, what should investors do?

Investor Tactics for an Uncertain Path

Our expectation is that we may see a mix of both scenarios in 2026. A bullish narrative in the first half, but disappointment during the second half. As such, investors should prepare for multiple scenarios. The key is to stay flexible and risk-aware. Tactical allocation can help manage through different macro regimes.

Recommended actions:

• Diversify across asset classes. Hold stocks, bonds, and cash.

• Within equities, favor companies with strong balance sheets and pricing power.

• Look at cyclical sectors for reflation exposure: financials, industrials, materials.

• Consider real assets as inflation hedges: REITs, infrastructure, and commodity funds.

• Use TIPS or inflation-protected bonds to guard against price spikes.

• Hold some short-term treasuries or high-quality bonds in case of slowdown.

Watch key data points:

• Inflation prints (CPI, PCE)

• Wage growth and employment trends

• Central bank communications

• Corporate earnings revisions

• Yield curve shape and credit spreads

Avoid over-concentration in momentum trades. If reflation falters, volatility will return quickly. Maintain liquidity to capitalize on market dislocations.

Conclusion

Reflation is a credible but fragile narrative. It depends on inflation falling, rates declining, and growth stabilizing. If these factors align, reflation can lift earnings and asset prices. But risks remain high. Inflation could return, geopolitics could worsen, or global demand could slip.

Investors must be cautious and prepared. Avoid betting on a single outcome. Manage risk, stay diversified, and follow the data. The path ahead is uncertain, but opportunities exist for those who stay alert and disciplined.