The War On Workers, Phase II – Truth Has Become A Liability

Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com,

It’s been a long row to hoe for most workers during the first 17 years of the new millennium.  The soil’s been hard and rocky.  The rewards for one’s toils have been bleak.

For many, laboriously dragging a push plow’s dull blade across the land has hardly scratched enough of a rut in the ground to plant a pitiful row of string beans.  What’s more, any bean sprouts that broke through the stony earth were quickly strangled out by seasonal weeds.  Those ‘green shoots’ that persisted bore pods that dried out on the vine before maturity.

This has been the common experience of the typical 21st century American worker, thus far. Countless, stories of labors with no fruits have been shared at bowling alleys across the Bible Belt.  There are also hard numbers that backup these woeful tales.

Just this week, for example, Sentier Research released a new report showing that after scratching and clawing the earth day after day, median household income has finally surpassed a level last seen in January 2000.  In other words, living standards for the typical family are now a smidge higher than they were at the turn of the century.  Rick Newman offers several details:

“Sentier calculates a monthly index representing median household income, based on Census Bureau data, starting at 100 in January of 2000.  Since it’s an index, it’s adjusted for inflation and represents the real earning power of a typical family.  The index drifted slightly above 100 a few times leading up to the 2008 financial meltdown, but mostly went sideways during the George W. Bush administration.  Then it plunged beginning in 2009, with a long recovery beginning in 2011.

 

“The latest reading in the Sentier index is 100.9, the first time it’s been above 100 since 2008. That number matches the previous high, from 2002, which means family income will hit a new high if it rises in May.”

Rip Van Winkle

Good grief.  What took so darn long?

A lot has changed while the typical worker was running in place for the last decade and a half.  In fact, Rip Van Winkle would hardly recognize the world that remains after these lost years.  Good manners, good ethics, and good people have mostly gone the way of the dodo bird.

For one, politics at home has gone stark raving mad.  Debbie Wasserman Shultz.  Jim Comey.  Barry Obama.  Susan Rice.  John Podesta.  Hillary Clinton.  Anthony Weiner.  Barney Frank.  John Burton.  Harry Reid.  Chuck Schumer.  Ted Kennedy’s ghost.  And on and on.  And so on and so forth.

Years ago, when upright character was an expectation, these malevolent dingle berries would have been painted with tar and rolled in a dirty chicken coop full of feathers, among other things.  Nowadays, they get extended lordship, pensions, and countless hours of paid vacation.

What to make of it?

The federal government – and many state and local governments – appear to be self-destructing in grand fashion.  Federal agencies and politicians are stabbing each other and the President in the back at a clip last witnessed in Moscow during the twilight of the Soviet Union.

At the same time, the truth has become a liability.  Specifically, sharing the dirty truth has become hazardous to one’s life expectancy.  For the ruling class has become desperate to keep the world tilted in its favor.  They’ll go to any length to keep money and power flowing towards them.

The Attack on Workers, Phase II

No doubt, President Trump’s a ghastly fellow.  But he’s not nearly as ghastly as the headlines make him out to be.  There are much worse haircuts out there.  Plus he’s facing an unwinnable battle.

All of Congress wants Trump to fail and are doing everything they can to ensure this happens.  Even his most partial efforts to redirect some of the failing social programs that are bankrupting the country are greeted with a disjointed and frenetic mass hysteria.  Rational contemplation and pragmatic decision making has given way to foaming mouths and erratic neck convulsions.

Should we be surprised?  Maybe this is the way things always were; only now they’ve been ratcheted up several notches.  For instance, two generations ago Nixon era Treasury Secretary William Simon let the cat out of the bag:

“One of the things I learned during my tenure in Washington is that the civic book picture of government in operation is completely inaccurate.  The idea that our elected officials take part in a careful decision-making process—monitoring events, reviewing options, responsibly selecting policies—has almost no connection with reality.

 

“A more accurate image would be that of a runaway train with the throttle stuck wide open—while the passengers and crew are living it up in the dining car.”

These days, however, the runaway train is one ridge turn from jumping the tracks.  Alas, a stock market crash, depression, and world war will likely accompany it.  After that the attack on worker begins in earnest.

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Silicon Valley Billionaire Unveils “Air Yacht” To Deliver Food, Supplies To Desperate People In “Remote Locations”

In a development that’s emblematic of the massive wealth inequality in Silicon Valley, the Guardian on Friday revealed new details about the "secret" airship that Google co-founder Sergey Brin is building at an old Nasa airbase in Santa Clara County.

According to the report, which cited anonymous sources who couldn’t speak on the record because of non-disclosure agreements, Brin intends to use the airship to deliver food and supplies to desperate people in “remote locations”– a task that’s uniquely suited for an airship because airships don’t require airports – or any infrastructure, really – to travel from point A to point B.

Of course, when the luxurious “air yacht” isn’t being used for these humanitarian purpose, it will serve as a leisure vessel for Brin’s families and friends.

Here are a few more details about the airship reported by The Guardian:The airship’s 200-meter size would make it the largest airship in the modern age, though It would stil be smaller than the Hindenburg Zeppelins of the 1930s and the American navy airship USS Macon, which was once based in the very same hangars where Brin’s aircraft is now being built.

  • Brin’s airship will rely on a system of internal gas bladders to create the ballast necessary to keep the ship anchored to the ground while heavy loads are being offloaded.
  • In November 2014, a Google-controlled company called Planetary Ventures signed a 60-year lease for more than 1,000 acres of Moffett Field at Nasa’s Ames airbase, where construction on the airship could safely begin. The leased area, which is located near Google’s headquarters in Mountain View, Calif., includes the base’s three largest airship hangers.
  • Brin’s airship was originally intended to use hydrogen as a lifting gas instead of helium because hydrogen is much cheaper and provides 10% more lift. But the Federal Aviation Administration requires all airships to use non-flammable lifting gases, which rules out highly volatile hydrogen. The gas notoriously caused the 1937 crash of the Hindenburg over New Jersey, which killed 36.
  • In early 2015, Brin asked aerospace engineer Alan Weston to build a one-tenth scale model of a variable buoyancy airship to test its air worthiness. Those flight tests apparently went well.

Bloomberg reported back in April that construction on the airship had begun, again citing anonymous sources.

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Global Pension Underfunding Will Grow To $400 Trillion Over Next 30 Years: World Economic Forum

Earlier this week we highlighted “Six Terrifying Graphs That Summarize America’s Public Pension Crisis” which ranked state, county and city-level public pensions in the United States by which are screwed the most.  To summarize, the study concluded that public pensions in the U.S. alone are currently underfunded by nearly $4 trillion and that taxpayers in Illinois, California and New Jersey should probably be looking to move before getting drowned in their state’s coming pension-induced tax hike tsunami.

Of course, as we’ve argued before, the current pension underfunding levels are sure to only get worse over the coming decades as the world will have to contend with a wave of retiring Baby Boomers and a period of lackluster, volatile returns.  So how bad could the global funding gap get?  Unfortunately, the World Economic Forum (WEF) recently set out to solve that impossible math equation and it turns out the answer is about $400 trillion…give or take a couple trillion.

 

Not surprisingly, the WEF attributed their terrifying conclusion to an ageing population, lack of savings, low expected growth rates and financially illiterate citizens.

Long-term, low-growth environment: Over the past 10 years, long-term investment returns have been significantly lower than historic averages. Equities have performed 3%-5% below historic averages and bond returns have typically been 1%-3% lower. Low rates have grown future liabilities, and at the same time investment returns have been lower than expected and unable to make up the growing pension shortfall.

 

Inadequate savings rates: To support a reasonable level of income in retirement, 10%-15% of an average annual salary needs to be saved. Today, individual savings rates in most countries are far lower. This is already presenting challenges where traditionally defined benefit structures would have provided a guaranteed pension benefit. Now, as workers look at their defined contribution retirement balances, with no guaranteed benefits, they are realizing that the retirement income their savings will provide will be much lower than expected.

 

Low levels of financial literacy:  Levels of financial literacy are very low worldwide. This represents a threat to pension systems which are more selfdirected and which rely more on private savings in addition to employer- or government-provided savings.

Of course, ignoring that minor ~20 year increase in life expectancy over the past 60 years without raising retirement ages can take a toll on those present value calculations of future liabilities.

 

Oh, and turns out that politicians creating massive ponzi schemes to promise citizens that their government would take care of their financial needs in perpetuity, while never really bothering to explain the true costs of such programs, was probably a bad idea.

 

But luckily these politicians are exempt from being prosecuted for their financial crimes…so taxpayers will just have to deal with picking up the $400 trillion tab.

 

The full WEF study can be viewed here:

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Hillary Clinton: “The Right Is Afraid Of Me Because I Don’t Die”

After recovering from another coughing fit

Hillary Clinton's so-called commencement speech turned into a political rant as she lobbed implicit impeachment jabs at President Trump over his Comey dismissal

However, in an interview with New York magazine later in the day, election-loser Clinton went to town ripping President Trump for firing FBI Director James Comey, calling it "an effort to derail and bury" the federal investigation into possible ties between the Trump campaign and Russia, and asking (and answering) "why is The Right so afraid of me?"

As The Hill reports, former Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton is pledging not to drop out of the political fight, despite what she calls efforts by some conservatives to silence her.

“You know, these guys on the other side are not just interested in my losing, they want to keep coming after me. I mean, think about that for a minute,” Clinton said.

 

“What are they so afraid of? Me, to some extent. Because I don’t die, despite their best efforts. But what [really drives them] is what I represent."

Which is supremely ironic given the media's incessant attacks on Trump since he 'won' the election. However Clinton was not done.

Then she ripped President Trump for firing FBI Director James Comey, calling it “an effort to derail and bury” the federal investigation into possible ties between the Trump campaign and Russia.

"I am less surprised than I am worried,” Clinton said in an interview with New York magazine published Friday. “Not that he shouldn’t have been disciplined. And certainly the Trump campaign relished everything that was done to me in July and then particularly in October.”

 

“Having said that, I think what’s going on now is an effort to derail and bury the Russia inquiry, and I think that’s terrible for our country,” she said in the interview, which took place a day after Comey's firing.

Finally The Hill notes that the former secretary of State is in the process of writing a book, in which she reflects on her election loss. Clinton says the process is “excruciating.”

An extremely ironic word to use given how so many feel hearing from her every day since the lost election…

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Egyptian Warplanes Bomb Terrorist Camps In Libya After Attack On Coptic Christians

Hours after gunmen opened fire on a convoy of vehicles carrying Coptic Christian worshippers to a desert monastery in Egypt, killing 28, the Egyptian warplanes carried out six bombing strikes targeting camps near Derna in Libya where Cairo believes militants responsible for the deadly attack were trained, Egyptian military sources said quoted by Reuters.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said directed strikes against what he called terrorist camps, declaring in a televised address that states that sponsored terrorism would be punished. He also vowed to continue striking bases used to train militants and who carry out terrorist attacks in his country, whether those camps were inside or outside the country.

“The terrorist incident that took place today will not pass unnoticed,” Sisi said. “We are currently targeting the camps where the terrorists are trained.”

“Egypt will not hesitate in striking any camps that harbor or train terrorist elements whether inside Egypt or outside Egypt,” the al-Ahram news agency quoted Sisi as saying.

The strikes took place around sundown, hours after the deadly attack. Christians, who account for about 10% of Egypt’s population of 80 million, have become the victims of an intensifying campaign of bombings and shootings masterminded by ISIS, which is trying to expand its footprint in Egypt. In April, at least 37 people were killed and more than 100 injured in two separate bombings at Christian Coptic churches packed with worshippers in northern Egypt one week before Coptic Easter.

Following the Libyan incursion, Egyptian armed forces released a short video which was aired on state television following the president’s speech. The voiceover in the army video said its air force carried out strikes on targets in Libya “after confirming their involvement in planning and committing the terrorist attack in Minya governorate on Friday.” Egypt’s military said that the air strikes are ongoing, local media reports.

Egyptian security forces have destroyed some 300 vehicles over the past two months which attempted to cross the border from Libya in order to bring in “evil,” according to Sisi, who emphasized the huge efforts his country has undertaken to battle terrorism.

The Egyptian president also directly addressed Donald Trump to take the lead in fighting terrorism. “I direct my appeal to President Trump: I trust you, your word and your ability to make fighting global terror your primary task,” he said. 

On Friday President Trump condemned the attacks on Egypt’s Coptic Christians, denouncing the “thuggish ideology” and “evil organizations of terror.” The White House issued the following statement earlier in the day:

Terrorists are engaged in a war against civilization, and it is up to all who value life to confront and defeat this evil. This merciless slaughter of Christians in Egypt tears at our hearts and grieves our souls. Wherever innocent blood is spilled, a wound is inflicted upon humanity. But this attack also steels our resolve to bring nations together for the righteous purpose of crushing the evil organizations of terror, and exposing their depraved, twisted, and thuggish ideology.

 

America also makes clear to its friends, allies, and partners that the treasured and historic Christian Communities of the Middle East must be defended and protected. The bloodletting of Christians must end, and all who aid their killers must be punished.

 

America stands with President Al Sisi and all the Egyptian people today, and always, as we fight to defeat this common enemy.

 

Civilization is at a precipice—and whether we climb or fall will be decided by our ability to join together to protect all faiths, all religions, and all innocent life. No matter what, America will do what it must to protect its people.

No militant group has yet claimed responsibility for the deadly attack on the bus.

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Weekend Reading: Correction Over As “Trump Hope” Remains

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Over the last couple of months, I have repeatedly discussed what has been possibly the most “boring” market ever. That was until the previous Wednesday when the market deciding to take a quick “road trip” to the 50-dma. 

It didn’t last long.

The market promptly went back to sleep in a light volume flotation (note decline in volume during advance) back to old highs. Yesterday, after multiple attempts, the market was finally able to muster a breakout above 2400 as “hopes and dreams” of “Trump tax cuts” once again took the lead over worries of “impeachment.” 

While on a short-term basis, the bullish bias continues, which keeps portfolios invested, for now, the intermediate-term (weekly) trends also remain within the confines of the bullish trend from the lows of 2016. However, the “alert” signal still remains from a very high level as markets push back into extreme overbought terrain. This suggests that upside is somewhat limited as there has not been enough of a correction to alleviate more extreme conditions.

Importantly, as noted on Tuesday, bonds aren’t buying the breakout:

“Lastly, despite stocks pushing near all-time highs, the bond market continues to flirt with levels close to 2%. The continued move to “risk off” holdings, despite a rising stock market, suggests that ultimately either stocks OR bonds will be wrong. Historically, bonds have tended to be right more often than not.”

Economic data is not buying it either, as data continues to come in softer than expected from new and existing home sales, to autos, to inventories.

Either the stock market is right and everything is going to play “catch up,” or it’s not.

While we remain long-biased in equities currently, we continue to remain wary of the underlying deterioration in both market and economic data.

Yes, anything is certainly possible. It just usually isn’t. 

In the meantime, here is what I am reading this weekend.


Politics/Fed/Economy


Markets


Research / Interesting Reads


“Anybody who plays the stock market, not as an insider, is like a man buying cows in the moonlight.” – Daniel Drew

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G7 Leaders Fail To Persuade Trump To Back Climate Deal After “Controversial” Debate

The Group of Seven world leaders, or rather Six excluding Trump, tried to tame the US president… and failed. Which means on Saturday the group will sign off on a substantially “pared-down” statement at the close of their meeting in Sicily – an indication of deep divisions on climate change and trade between Trump and the rest of the developed world. Pushing hard to persuade Trump to back the landmark Paris climate accord deal, after hours of talks that were described by Angela Merkel as “controversial”, the G-7 leaders failed to get Trump’s endorsement.

The leaders did, however, issue a joint statement on fighting terrorism, admonishing internet service providers and social media companies to “substantially increase” their efforts to rein in extremist content. According to Italy’s Prime Minister and host, Paolo Gentiloni, the group was also inching closer to finding common language on trade, a controversial for Trump who has repeatedly pushed for an “America first” agenda.

But on the issue of climate, there was no breakthrough.

“There is one open question, which is the U.S. position on the Paris climate accords,” Gentiloni told reporters according to Reuters, referring to a 2015 deal on reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

 

“All others have confirmed their total agreement on the accord.” U.S. officials had signaled beforehand that Trump, who dismissed climate change as a “hoax” during his campaign, would not take a decision on the climate deal in Taormina, the cliff-top town overlooking the Mediterranean where G7 leaders met.

Other leaders, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel and new French President Emmanuel Macron, had hoped to sway the president at his first major international summit. 

They failed, despite what Merkel described as a “controversial” climate debate and added that there was a “very intensive” exchange of views. One can only imagine.

Speaking separately, Trump’s economic adviser Gary Cohn said Trump’s views on climate were “evolving” and that he would ultimately do what was best for the United States.

* * *

The tense summit, held at a luxury hotel that was once a Dominican monastery and base for the Nazi air force during World War Two, took place one day after Trump blasted NATO allies for spending too little on defense and described Germany’s trade surplus as “very bad” in a meeting with EU officials. As noted yesterday, Trump’s NATO speech shocked allies, who had been expecting him to reaffirm Washington’s commitment to Article 5, the part of the military alliance’s founding treaty which describes an attack on one member as an attack on all.

Italy chose to stage the summit in Sicily to draw attention to Africa, which is 140 miles (225 km) from the island at its closest point across the Mediterranean. More than half a million migrants, most from sub-Saharan Africa, have reached Italy by boat since 2014, taking advantage of the chaos in Libya to launch their perilous crossings.

In addition to trade and climate, drafts of the communique as of Friday were due to address topics such as migration and gender equality. The “ongoing large-scale movement” of migrants and refugees calls for “coordinated efforts,” according to a draft of the communique seen by Bloomberg News.

“We reaffirm the sovereign rights of states to control their own borders and set clear limits on net migration levels, as key elements of their national security and economic well-being,” according to the draft.

 

The nations are also set to say gender equality is fundamental for human rights. The leaders also issued a separate statement on counter-terrorism efforts that called on social media companies to do more in the fight against terrorism.

As the leaders attended a concert and gala dinner on Friday night, their aides worked to finalize the draft wording. “On the major theme of global trade, we are still working on the shape of the final communique, but it seems to me the direct discussions today have produced common positions that we can work on,” said Gentiloni.

The final G7 communique traditionally outlines the common positions
of the member states’ leaders on the economy and other global issues
requiring joint action by the world’s leading powers. This year’s
statement is on pace to be less than 10 pages, or less than a third the 32-page memo signed last year in Japan, according to Bloomberg. 

“You
can test this stuff empirically. A shorter communique tends to mean the
less they actually produce by way of commitments,” John Kirton, director of the University of Toronto’s G7 Research Group, told Bloomberg. He downplayed the relative scale of divisions:

“I don’t
think it’s more divided than it’s ever been before,” he said, citing
the 1982 summit as a failure where the issue of a Soviet gas pipeline,
opposed by Ronald Reagan, divided the countries. “So they patched over
some communique, but then they all ran off to their post-summit
briefings and said ’we don’t agree with it, we don’t agree with it.’ So
it made things worse. They kind of publicized their failure.”

* * *

There was one thing the group could agree on: a crackdown on the “internet abuse.”

“We will combat the misuse of the Internet by terrorists,” the statement said. The G-7 “calls for communication service providers and social media companies to substantially increase their efforts to address terrorist content.”

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Stocks Surge For 7th Straight Day As US Macro Data Hits 15-Month Lows

"Smells Like Victory" – Happy Memorial Weekend…

 

Let's start with this…

 

S&P at record highs as US macro data topples to 15-month lows…

 

Nasdaq hit record highs as Earnings Expectations slump to 2017 lows…

 

Small Caps remain underwater post-Trump-Dump… Nasdaq is now up 7 days in a row – longest streak since early Feb

NOTE – today was different – no big spike in stocks

 

Today saw S&P and Dow glued to the flatline…with a very chaotic end

 

Volume continues to collapse in this levitation off the Trump Dump…

 

As the cap-weighted S&P continues to dramatically outperform the equal-weighted S&P (i.e. the big tech names are driving)

 

S&P Equal weight remains below the March highs…Simply put, without FANG stocks, th emarket has gone nowhere in almost 3 months…

 

As Citi notes, a close today above 2,405 on the S&P 500 suggests we can rally towards 2,500+ in the coming weeks:

  • Even within trends, markets do not move in straight lines. Rather, market rallies are interspersed between sideways moving markets. In some cases, the majority of a rally is spent in consolidation with the big moves in the trend happening quickly. Such a dynamic is currently at play in the S&P 500.
  • Since the bullish break seen in July 2016, the S&P 500 rallied 14% over 46 weeks through today (this came after over a year of the S&P 500 consistently failing around the 2,100 area). However, most of that time has been spent with the equity market in consolidation/ranges. The actual gains have taken place over just 14 of those 46 weeks in the shape of quick market rallies.
  • We may now be on the verge of another such move. In the prior three rallies since July, a weekly close through the top of the prior range has signaled the start of a multi-week rally. Another break like this would be confirmed with a close today above 2,405.
  • If this is a bullish break, how high can we go? The average rally after the prior three breaks (from the break level) has been 4.2% and a similar move this time would suggest a move to 2,506 in the coming weeks.
  • Beyond that, we continue to view the overall global economic and market backdrop to be positive for Equities and continue to think a move towards 2,750 by year end can be seen

 

Finally, while AMZN dropped after testing towards $1000 agains today, it closed modestly green again (for the 7th straight day)

 

Here is a helpful chart in case you were wondering what was driving AMZN's success?

 

VIX is down 7 straight days and clsoed at the lowest weekly close since 1993…

 

Short-term VIX crashed a record low…

 

Treasuries ended the week marginally higher in yield…

 

But the yield curve (2s10s and 2s30s) have tumbled to cycle lows…

 

The Dollar index managed to close green on the week after bouncing off the post-Fed drop…

 

Cable was by far the weakest against the greenback and Yuan the strongest…

 

Despite dollar ended higher, gold and silver gained on the week…

 

WTI and RBOB both fell on the week after OPEC disappointed…

 

Gold and Silver had a great week (with the last now well above pre-fed rate hike lows)

 

Finally, Bitcoin was hitting the headlines every day this week and ended on a weak note (biggest drop since January) but still up over 10% on the week…

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US Plans First Ever ICBM Intercept Next Tuesday

Less than a month after the US Air Force successfully test fired two Minuteman ICBM missiles from California’s Vanderberg Air Force base, which hit a target approximately 4,200 miles away at Kwajalein Atoll in the Pacific Ocean, today Pentagon officials said that the US will try to shoot down an intercontinental-range missile for the first time in a test next week, in “preparation for North Korea’s growing threat.” According to AP, the stated goal is “to more closely simulate a North Korean ICBM aimed at the U.S. homeland.”

The Pentagon’s Missile Defense Agency on Tuesday will shoot an interceptor from the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system, a network meant to protect the country against a limited nuclear attack, at a custom-made missile meant to simulate an ICBM. 

As ABC adds, an interceptor is to be launched from an underground silo at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California and soar toward the target, which will be fired from a test range on Kwajalein Atoll in the Pacific. If all goes as planned, the “kill vehicle” will slam into the ICBM-like target’s mock warhead high over the Pacific Ocean. The target will be a custom-made missile meant to simulate an ICBM, meaning it will fly faster than missiles used in previous intercept tests, according to Christopher Johnson, spokesman for the Missile Defense Agency. The target is not a mock-up of an actual North Korean ICBM, Johnson added.

The basic defensive idea is to fire a rocket into space upon warning of a hostile missile launch. The rocket releases a 5-foot-long device called a “kill vehicle” that uses internal guidance systems to steer into the path of the oncoming missile’s warhead, destroying it by force of impact. Officially known as the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system, the Pentagon likens it to hitting a bullet with a bullet.

 

The Pentagon’s Missile Defense Agency, which is responsible for developing and testing the system, has scheduled the intercept test for Tuesday.

“We conduct increasingly complex test scenarios as the program matures and advances,” Johnson told AP on Friday. “Testing against an ICBM-type threat is the next step in that process.”

While the Pentagon has a variety of missile defense systems, the one designed with a potential North Korean ICBM in mind is perhaps the most technologically challenging. Critics say it also is the least reliable. According to AP, the American interceptor has a spotty track record, succeeding in nine of 17 attempts since 1999. The most recent test, in June 2014, was a success, but that followed three straight failures. The system has evolved from the multibillion-dollar effort triggered by President Ronald Reagan’s 1983 push for a “Star Wars” solution to ballistic missile threats during the Cold War – when the Soviet Union was the only major worry…. which is probably why officials were quick to hedge that this is not a make-or-break test.

The interceptor system has been in place since 2004, but it has never been used in combat or fully tested. There currently are 32 interceptors in silos at Fort Greely in Alaska and four at Vandenberg, north of Los Angeles. The Pentagon says it will have eight more, for a total of 44, by the end of this year.

The test will follow a successful North Korean launch Sunday, during which the country fired a medium-range ballistic missile that landed in the Sea of Japan. Last Monday, AP reported Monday that North Korea is ready to begin the mass production of its new missile, which could reach Japan and major military bases.  Marine Corps Lt. Gen. Vincent Stewart, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said this week that “left unchecked,” a North Korean missile will eventually be able to reach the United States.

Some more details on the Pentagon’s strategy from AP:

According to the Pentagon, North Korea does not yet have the technology to reach the West Coast with a missile, but the military is preparing should it happen. The test will following a successful North Korean launch Sunday, during which the country fired a medium-range ballistic missile that landed in the Sea of Japan.

 

While it wasn’t scheduled with the expectation of an imminent North Korean missile threat, the military will closely watch whether it shows progress toward the stated goal of being able to reliably shoot down a small number of ICBMs targeting the United States. The Pentagon is thirsting for a success story amid growing fears about North Korea’s escalating capability.

 

“I can’t imagine what they’re going to say if it fails,” said Philip Coyle, senior science fellow at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation. He headed the Pentagon’s office of operational test and evaluation from 1994 to 2001 and has closely studied the missile defense system. “These tests are scripted for success, and what’s been astonishing to me is that so many of them have failed,” Coyle said.

The test comes at a sensitive time for the Petnagon: this week it presented Congress with its 2018 budget which proposed spending $7.9 billion on missile defense, including $821 million for more interceptors. Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) wants 28 additional interceptors in Alaska and California, increasing by more than 30 percent the number of interceptors currently in the United States.

The U.S. already has 36 interceptors, with four at Vandenberg Air Force Base along the California coast in Santa Barbara County and the rest at Alaska’s Fort Greely. The Obama administration also signed off on plans to add eight more to Alaska by the end of 2017. The plan also asks for $465 million for upgrades and testing for the Redesigned Kill Vehicle, part of the interceptor missile, and to replace old ground control systems. In addition, the budget requests $451 million, up from $95 million last year, for the Long-Range Stand-Off missile, a nuclear cruise missile that the Air Force can fire from the B-52, B-2 and the B-21 bomber.

President Donald Trump recently ordered the Pentagon to undertake a ballistic missile defense review. Some experts argue the current strategy for shooting down ICBM-range missiles, focused on the silo-based interceptors, is overly expensive and inadequate. They say a more fruitful approach would be to destroy or disable such missiles before they can be launched, possibly by cyberattack.

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And The Best Performing Stock Market In The World Is…

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

Pop quiz: What country has the world’s best performing stock market?

It’s not the United States. Or Canada. Or China.

The answer is Venezuela, whose primary stock market index over the last year is up nearly SEVEN FOLD, from 11,700 last summer to a record 72,700 today.

It’s amazing that a country where people are literally starving because there’s very little food available is seeing record stock market performance.

At face value it would seem that anyone who had invested in Venezuela stocks is an absolute genius and swimming in money right now.

But remember that Venezuelan stocks are denominated in local currency.

Officially the Bolivar’s exchange rate with the US dollar is around 10:1. But due to the country’s hyperinflation, the black market rate is closer to 6,000:1.

And that black market rate is also up nearly 7-fold over the last year.

So anyone who had purchased Venezuelan stocks last summer might be up hundreds of percent if you measure performance in bolivares.

But in US dollars you’d actually be down a bit.

This is one of the hallmarks of inflation; it’s not just retail prices that increase. Asset prices rise as well.

But it’s not real wealth.

Think about it– if the value of your home increases by 2% per year, and inflation is also 2% per year, you have zero gain in prosperity.

Or another example: if stock prices increase by 10%, you then have to pay state and federal tax on your capital gains.

Maybe you have 7% left over. Then take out 2% (or more) for inflation. You’ve lost half of your gain.

Ok, still, maybe not a bad sum. But compare that return against the risk that you’re taking: is 5% worth the risk?

This is one of the most insidious effects of inflation: we put up with rising prices because we think that we are becoming more prosperous over time, even though the opposite is usually true.

Inflation is like a cancer that slowly eats away at everything– the purchasing power of your savings, your income, and even your investment performance.

And the people who engineer it have been extremely clever.

Have you ever noticed that official inflation statistics are typically reported on a MONTHLY basis?

The most recent headline from the US Department of Labor’s Consumer Price Index, for example, reads “CPI for all items rises 0.2% in April. . .”

That’s pretty masterful.

I mean, who is going to bat an eyelash at 0.2%? It’s a rounding error. No one cares.

A more intellectually honest way of reporting would be, “Prices increased 10% over the last four years.”

That’s a lot more noticeable.

They also rarely present inflation data alongside wage and salary data.

For example, the inflation report doesn’t say “prices increased by 0.2%, while wages increased by only 0.1%.”

Or more succinctly, “the average worker became less prosperous last month.”

That would be terribly inconvenient for policymakers.

But perhaps their most masterful stroke has been making people terrified of falling prices.

In economics, the dreaded ‘deflation’ is regarded as an absolutely horrific outcome.

The theory is that if prices fall by even just 1%, no one will go out and spend money.

Instead they’ll just sit on their savings and wait for prices to continue falling, and this will send the economy into a tailspin.

Deflation the most absurd fairytale in economics. And that’s saying a lot.

So rather than wanting folks to enjoy a small discount and build up a pool of savings, they’ve managed to convince everyone that a little bit of inflation is healthy and normal.

Losing 10% of your savings every few years doesn’t seem healthy or normal to me.

Instead it feels like a lot like a wealth tax.

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Interestingly, in USD terms, while Venezuela looks like the best (this is based on the official FX rate, not the hyperinflating real dollar blue), but look at which nation is worst…

via http://ift.tt/2rH9iXO Tyler Durden