Ron Paul Blasts “After 100 Years Of Failure, It’s Time To End The Fed”

Submitted by Ron Paul via The Free Foundation blog,

This week the Federal Reserve System will celebrate the 100th anniversary of its founding. Resulting from secret negotiations between bankers and politicians at Jekyll Island, the Fed’s creation established a banking cartel and a board of government overseers that has grown ever stronger through the years. One would think this anniversary would elicit some sort of public recognition of the Fed’s growth from a quasi-agent of the Treasury Department intended to provide an elastic currency, to a de facto independent institution that has taken complete control of the economy through its central monetary planning. But just like the Fed’s creation, its 100th anniversary may come and go with only a few passing mentions.

Like many other horrible and unconstitutional pieces of legislation, the bill which created the Fed, the Federal Reserve Act, was passed under great pressure on December 23, 1913, in the waning moments before Congress recessed for Christmas with many Members already absent from those final votes. This underhanded method of pressuring Congress with such a deadline to pass the Federal Reserve Act would provide a foreshadowing of the Fed’s insidious effects on the US economy—with actions performed without transparency.

Ostensibly formed with the goal of preventing financial crises such as the Panic of 1907, the Fed has become increasingly powerful over the years. Rather than preventing financial crises, however, the Fed has constantly caused new ones. Barely a few years after its inception, the Fed’s inflationary monetary policy to help fund World War I led to the Depression of 1920. After the economy bounced back from that episode, a further injection of easy money and credit by the Fed led to the Roaring Twenties and to the Great Depression, the worst economic crisis in American history.

But even though the Fed continued to make the same mistakes over and over again, no one in Washington ever questioned the wisdom of having a central bank. Instead, after each episode the Fed was given more and more power over the economy. Even though the Fed had brought about the stagflation of the 1970s, Congress decided to formally task the Federal Reserve in 1978 with maintaining full employment and stable prices, combined with constantly adding horrendously harmful regulations. Talk about putting the inmates in charge of the asylum!

Now we are reaping the noxious effects of a century of loose monetary policy, as our economy remains mired in mediocrity and utterly dependent on a stream of easy money from the central bank. A century ago, politicians failed to understand that the financial panics of the 19th century were caused by collusion between government and the banking sector. The government’s growing monopoly on money creation, high barriers to entry into banking to protect politically favored incumbents, and favored treatment for government debt combined to create a rickety, panic-prone banking system. Had legislators known then what we know now, we could hope that they never would have established the Federal Reserve System.

Today, however, we do know better. We know that the Federal Reserve continues to strengthen the collusion between banks and politicians. We know that the Fed’s inflationary monetary policy continues to reap profits for Wall Street while impoverishing Main Street. And we know that the current monetary regime is teetering on a precipice. One hundred years is long enough. End the Fed.


    



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The Twist-er Tantrum: Bernanke Unleashes 5-Sigma Curve Flattening

Despite the absolute assurances (by your friendly local asset gatherer) that a taper would unleash hell in the bond markets, a decidedly one-sided market has seen a tremendous squeeze in the last 2 days. Echoing Operation Twist’s effort, the term structure of Treasury yields has collapsed by 5 standard deviations to 3-month flats.

 

 

Our suspicion is that traders were positioned for a taper and weakness (steepening) in bonds  and when that did not materialize in size, exits were hit in a hurry… either that or macroeconomic growth and reflation hopes and dreams are dashed in the reality of bond premia.


    



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Obama Prepares To Address Nation And… Healthcare.gov Crashes (Again)

With 75 minutes until the President’s news conference – that we suspect would have been chock full of positivity over the ‘progress’ the Obamacare website has made – Healthcare.gov is down.

As WaPo first observed, “The home page is still present, but when one tries to apply for a health plan, the site says the “system is down.” A message on the screen says it is part of “scheduled maintenance.” The deadline for people to obtain coverage for the New Year is Dec. 23 — which means the site could see in spike in visits in the coming days.”

The result of all the Obamacare “fixes” is screen captured below:

 


    



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Gold Buying On Shanghai Gold Exchange Surges Again On Sub $1,200 Gold

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,195.00, EUR 875.33 and GBP 731.69 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,205.25, EUR 881.16 and GBP 736.35 per ounce.

Gold dropped $27 or 2.22% yesterday, closing at $1,191.50/oz. Silver slid $0.58 or 2.93% closing at $19.21/oz. Platinum dropped $14.76, or 1.1%, to $1,316.24/oz and palladium edged down $2.53 or 0.4%, to $692.97/oz.


Gold in U.S. Dollars, 1 Year – (Bloomberg)

Gold fell below support at $1,200/oz yesterday and is vulnerable to a further test of the June 28th low of $1,180.50/oz. A close below $1,180.50/oz could lead to prices falling to $1,100/oz and the next level of support is $1,000/oz.

Gold rallied from its worst closing price in almost three years after the Fed’s decision to marginally reduce its debt monetisation programme. Gold is on track to suffer its first decline since 2000 or first decline in 13 years.

The taper is not as bearish as some suggest as debt monetisation will continue at the whopping $900 billion per annum – down from over $1 trillion per annum and the Fed will maintain near zero percent interest rates for the foreseeable future.

Chinese demand may once again stem the decline in gold prices. Chinese buyers eagerly scooped up gold at bargain prices overnight after the 4% price fall this week and 29% fall this year.

Gold volumes for the benchmark cash contract on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), China’s biggest spot bullion market, climbed to a 10 week high as lower prices led to increased buying.

The volume for bullion of 99.99% purity climbed to 19,775 kilograms yesterday, the biggest since October 8, from 13,673 kilograms the previous day, according to exchange data compiled by Bloomberg. Prices fell on the SGE overnight for a third day, losing 2.1% to 235.85 yuan a gram ($1,208 an ounce), the lowest since February 2010.


Gold in Renminbi – Shanghai Gold Exchange – 5 Years

The surge underscores robust demand in the nation set to overtake India as the largest buyer of gold. When gold entered a bear market in April, demand for jewelry and gold bars surged in Asia, even as more speculative investors cut holdings in ETF products at a record pace.
China’s shipments from Hong Kong rose to the second highest on record in October, with the amount in the first 10 months in 2013 alone more than doubling to 955.9 tons. This does not include shipments directly into China that do not go through Hong Kong.

Chinese demand for gold has surged again this year and the World Gold Council’s estimate of demand reaching 1,000 metric tons, is increasingly being seen as very conservative. Chinese demand may be much, much higher with some analysts saying that demand may be close to the 2,000 tonne mark.


Gold Fixes/Rates/Vols – (Bloomberg)

The Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), now the world’s biggest exchange for physical gold, plans to offer storage accounts to investors in China and internationally. This could lead to even greater flows of gold into China in 2015.

The SGE plans to  launch an international board in the pilot free trade zone to attract offshore yuan capital to invest in the Chinese mainland’s gold market, a senior official said earlier this month.

“We want to tap the opportunity from Shanghai’s pilot free trade zone and launch an international board to attract offshore yuan to invest in the mainland,” Xu Luode, chairman of the bourse, said at a precious metals forum in Shanghai December 6th.

The Shanghai exchange will establish a system that publishes daily rates at which selected market participants are willing to lend gold in the mainland interbank market, which is similar to the Gold Forward Offered Rates by the London Bullion Market Association, according to Xu.

Gold’s sell off this week was again primarily due to paper gold selling by traders and speculators on the COMEX as there was little selling of coins and bars by bullion buyers. Indeed, we have again seen more buyers than sellers this week and there has been a slight increase in demand.

Bullion premiums in western markets are flat again this week. Gold bars  (1 oz) are trading at $1,249.89/oz or premiums of between 3.75% and 4.5%, and larger gold bars (1 kilo)  are trading at $39,800/oz or premiums of between 3% and 3.5%.

Arguably, the Fed’s small taper and statement is bullish for gold as the Fed confirmed that ultra loose monetary policies and the unprecedented zero percent interest policies are set to continue. Also, the  Federal Reserve’s balance sheet continues to deteriorate which should support gold in 2014.

Download Protecting your Savings From Bail-Ins and Deposit Confiscation (11 pages)

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Israeli Generals Preparing For "Short, Sharp" War Against Hezbollah

While a military campaign against Syria (and Iran) on the usual grounds has been postponed indefinitely, two nations in the Middle East have been seething: Saudi Arabia and, of course, Israel. Yet while Saudi Arabia rarely if ever gets its own hands dirty, instead executing its geopolitcal strategy through puppet states in need of its oil, Israel has never had a problem with engaging in offensive wars. And now that the threat of an imminent war, one which would have been largely carried out on the back of the US military, is gone Israel is preparing to do just that.

According to UPI, “Israeli generals are preparing for a decisive — and probably brief — war against Hezbollah, one of Israel’s most implacable foes, with plans to smash the Iranian-backed Lebanese movement’s military power, a study says. The Israelis’ primary objective will be to eradicate Hezbollah’s reputedly massive arsenal of missiles and rockets “for years to come,” the report by the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies in Tel Aviv said.”

In other words, Syrian script, rinse repeat – spook with stories of massive weapon arsenals, propose a permanent resolution that involves invading – “briefly” although it never really works out that way – and then leak a few false flag videos “proving” just how evil the nation that is about to be invaded is.

Full story from UPI

Israel gets ready for ‘short, sharp war’ against Hezbollah

Israeli military intelligence estimates Hezbollah has 80,000 missiles and rockets of all calibers, ranging from ballistic missiles with warheads packing 700 pounds of high explosives, to short-range rockets, many of them aimed at cities including Tel Aviv. Some estimates go as high as 100,000.

The weapons that give Israelis nightmares are the long-range missiles with which Hezbollah can pound the Jewish state’s population centers and strategic installations without let-up for at least a month.

Israel’s military, which failed to crush Hezbollah in a 34-day war in 2006, “has prepared for a combined air and large-scale ground operation, driven by new intelligence and precision-firepower capabilities, to deliver a knockout blow and eliminate Hezbollah as a fighting force for years to come,” observed the report’s author, Yaakov Lappin, the Jerusalem Post’s military analyst.

Knocking out Hezbollah’s missile storage bunkers and launch sites will be the air force’s main mission, as it was in 2006, when Hezbollah only had about 20,000 missiles, 4,000 of which hit northern Israel.

Lappin said Israel will use “unprecedented capabilities” and a combat fleet that could destroy hundreds of targets a day.

In the last year, Israelis have been bombarded with government warnings to brace themselves for weeks of unprecedented missile bombardment if war comes — although the media have sought to reassure the public the armed forces will protect them with new weapons, tactics and all manner of electronic wizardry.

A key protection system will be the much-vaunted, four-tier missile defense shield known as Homa, The Wall in Hebrew. This includes the long-range Arrow 3 system, designed to destroy Iranian ballistic missiles outside Earth’s atmosphere, down to the Iron Dome, which has by official count shot down 84.6 percent of the short-range Palestinian rockets it has engaged in the last two years.

Even so, whatever the dimensions and capabilities of the generals’ plan, another report poured cold water on Israeli expectations of survival in the next war, which will — for the first time since the state was founded in 1948, a half dozen wars ago — target the home front.

Nathan Faber of the Faculty of Aerospace Engineering at the Technion, Israel’s Institute of Technology, warned in an article on the website of the Magen Laoref, or Homefront Shield, foundation, that the Homa could crumble due to technological, operational and financial reasons in a multifront war with Hezbollah, Iran and others.

Faber, formerly chief scientist in the military’s missile division, said at least one-third of all missiles fired at Israel will in all probability get through.

He calculates Israel could be threatened by 800 Iranian Shehab-3b and more advanced Sejjil-2 ballistic missiles, and 400 Soviet-era Scud ballistic missiles held by Syria, some of which may be used in its 33-month-old civil war.

There will also be 500-1,000 medium-range tactical missiles — like Iran’s Fajr or Fateh weapons, which Hezbollah already has — and more than 100,000 short-range rockets held by Syria, Hezbollah and the Palestinian Hamas group in Gaza.

Faber reckons about one-third of the missiles fired at Israel will be intercepted by the air force, another third will malfunction and one third will get through defensive screens, including about 400 of the 1,200 ballistic systems.

Regarding tactical missiles, Faber noted that “since these are very precise missiles the great majority of them will hit their target” after evading the anti-missile defenses.

He calculates Iron Dome — which he assesses has a kill rate of only 66 percent — will have to deal with 30,000 rockets.

The cost will be awesome — and possibly prohibitive.

By Faber’s tally, Iron Dome operations will cost $6 billion, countering 400 ballistic missiles another $3 billion, while mid-range interceptions will total as much as $2 billion.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/EUmgcKR2CJ0/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Israeli Generals Preparing For “Short, Sharp” War Against Hezbollah

While a military campaign against Syria (and Iran) on the usual grounds has been postponed indefinitely, two nations in the Middle East have been seething: Saudi Arabia and, of course, Israel. Yet while Saudi Arabia rarely if ever gets its own hands dirty, instead executing its geopolitcal strategy through puppet states in need of its oil, Israel has never had a problem with engaging in offensive wars. And now that the threat of an imminent war, one which would have been largely carried out on the back of the US military, is gone Israel is preparing to do just that.

According to UPI, “Israeli generals are preparing for a decisive — and probably brief — war against Hezbollah, one of Israel’s most implacable foes, with plans to smash the Iranian-backed Lebanese movement’s military power, a study says. The Israelis’ primary objective will be to eradicate Hezbollah’s reputedly massive arsenal of missiles and rockets “for years to come,” the report by the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies in Tel Aviv said.”

In other words, Syrian script, rinse repeat – spook with stories of massive weapon arsenals, propose a permanent resolution that involves invading – “briefly” although it never really works out that way – and then leak a few false flag videos “proving” just how evil the nation that is about to be invaded is.

Full story from UPI

Israel gets ready for ‘short, sharp war’ against Hezbollah

Israeli military intelligence estimates Hezbollah has 80,000 missiles and rockets of all calibers, ranging from ballistic missiles with warheads packing 700 pounds of high explosives, to short-range rockets, many of them aimed at cities including Tel Aviv. Some estimates go as high as 100,000.

The weapons that give Israelis nightmares are the long-range missiles with which Hezbollah can pound the Jewish state’s population centers and strategic installations without let-up for at least a month.

Israel’s military, which failed to crush Hezbollah in a 34-day war in 2006, “has prepared for a combined air and large-scale ground operation, driven by new intelligence and precision-firepower capabilities, to deliver a knockout blow and eliminate Hezbollah as a fighting force for years to come,” observed the report’s author, Yaakov Lappin, the Jerusalem Post’s military analyst.

Knocking out Hezbollah’s missile storage bunkers and launch sites will be the air force’s main mission, as it was in 2006, when Hezbollah only had about 20,000 missiles, 4,000 of which hit northern Israel.

Lappin said Israel will use “unprecedented capabilities” and a combat fleet that could destroy hundreds of targets a day.

In the last year, Israelis have been bombarded with government warnings to brace themselves for weeks of unprecedented missile bombardment if war comes — although the media have sought to reassure the public the armed forces will protect them with new weapons, tactics and all manner of electronic wizardry.

A key protection system will be the much-vaunted, four-tier missile defense shield known as Homa, The Wall in Hebrew. This includes the long-range Arrow 3 system, designed to destroy Iranian ballistic missiles outside Earth’s atmosphere, down to the Iron Dome, which has by official count shot down 84.6 percent of the short-range Palestinian rockets it has engaged in the last two years.

Even so, whatever the dimensions and capabilities of the generals’ plan, another report poured cold water on Israeli expectations of survival in the next war, which will — for the first time since the state was founded in 1948, a half dozen wars ago — target the home front.

Nathan Faber of the Faculty of Aerospace Engineering at the Technion, Israel’s Institute of Technology, warned in an article on the website of the Magen Laoref, or Homefront Shield, foundation, that the Homa could crumble due to technological, operational and financial reasons in a multifront war with Hezbollah, Iran and others.

Faber, formerly chief scientist in the military’s missile division, said at least one-third of all missiles fired at Israel will in all probability get through.

He calculates Israel could be threatened by 800 Iranian Shehab-3b and more advanced Sejjil-2 ballistic missiles, and 400 Soviet-era Scud ballistic missiles held by Syria, some of which may be used in its 33-month-old civil war.

There will also be 500-1,000 medium-range tactical missiles — like Iran’s Fajr or Fateh weapons, which Hezbollah already has — and more than 100,000 short-range rockets held by Syria, Hezbollah and the Palestinian Hamas group in Gaza.

Faber reckons about one-third of the missiles fired at Israel will be intercepted by the air force, another third will malfunction and one third will get through defensive screens, including about 400 of the 1,200 ballistic systems.

Regarding tactical missiles, Faber noted that “since these are very precise missiles the great majority of them will hit their target” after evading the anti-missile defenses.

He calculates Iron Dome — which he assesses has a kill rate of only 66 percent — will have to deal with 30,000 rockets.

The cost will be awesome — and possibly prohibitive.

By Faber’s tally, Iron Dome operations will cost $6 billion, countering 400 ballistic missiles another $3 billion, while mid-range interceptions will total as much as $2 billion.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/EUmgcKR2CJ0/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Giant US Retailer to Accept Bitcoin

Overstock.com – the American internet retailer with over a billion dollars per year in sales – will accept Bitcoin starting in 2014.

As Overstock CEO Patrick Byrne told the Financial Times:

I think a healthy monetary system at the end of the day isn’t an upside down pyramid based on the whim of a government official, but is based on something that they can’t control.

 

If there’s going to be some part of the population which adopts it… I think that we’ll get that business. And the people who switch to it will respect that we started adopting it.

Europe has rolled out its first Bitcoin ATM. And a bitcoin ATM in Vancouver, Canada did $1 million dollars worth of transactions within the first 29 days.

Mobile gift card company Gyft – which allows users to purchase gift cards at more than 50,000 retail locations in the U.S., including Brookstone, Lowe’s, GAP, Sephora, Gamestop, American Eagle, Nike, Marriott, Burger King and Fandango – partnered with BitPay earlier this year to start accepting bitcoins within its app.

According to the Bank of England’s Chief of Financial Stability, this may be a big step towards breaking up the monopoly of the too big to fail banks.


    



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Meet the “Bandits’ Club” – The TBTF Wall Street Cartel Rigging the FX Market

Another day, another tale of how the “Too Big to Jail” Wall Street cartel manipulates a major global market with no repercussions whatsoever. Must be nice having essentially every Congressperson and regulator in your back pocket. Get caught? Pay a little fine and get on with it. Everyone wins!

Actually, everyone loses. Except for the handful of FX manipulators, rigging global currency markets from their Essex villages outside of London. These traders for major TBTF banks refer to themselves by various names in their now silenced Bloomberg chat rooms, from The Cartel,” “The Bandits’ Club,” “One Team, One Dream” and “The Mafia.” Very classy guys. Glad we bailed your asses out…

More from Bloomberg:

Now regulators from Bern to Washington are examining evidence first reported by Bloomberg News in June that a small group of senior traders at big banks had something else on their screens: details of each other’s client orders. Sharing that information may have helped dealers at firms, including JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc., UBS AG and Barclays Plc, manipulate prices to maximize their own profits, according to five people with knowledge of the probes.

“This is a market where there is no law and people have turned a blind eye,” said former Senator Ted Kaufman, a Delaware Democrat who sponsored legislation in 2010 to shrink the largest U.S. banks. “We’ve been talking about banks being too big to fail. What’s almost as big a problem is banks too big to manage.”

At the center of the inquiries are instant-message groups with names such as “The Cartel,” “The Bandits’ Club,” “One Team, One Dream” and “The Mafia,” in which dealers exchanged information on client orders and agreed how to trade at the fix, according to the people with knowledge of the investigations who asked not to be identified because the matter is pending. Some traders took part in multiple chat rooms, one of them said.

The currency investigations are taking place as authorities grapple with a widening list of scandals involving the manipulation by banks of benchmark financial rates, including the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, and ISDAfix, used to determine the value of interest-rate derivatives. The U.K. regulator also is reviewing how prices are set in the $20 trillion gold market, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

Don’t be ridiculous, everyone knows the gold market is the only market on earth that isn’t manipulated.

“Some of these problems developed over many years without anybody speaking up,” said Andrew Tyrie, chairman of Britain’s Commission on Banking Standards and Parliament’s Treasury Select Committee. “This is remarkable. It suggests something very wrong with the culture at these institutions.”

Blasphemy!

In addition to seeking evidence of collusion, the FCA is looking into whether traders cut deals for personal profit before completing customers’ orders, according to a person with knowledge of the probe. Bloomberg News reported in November, based on the accounts of two people who witnessed the transactions, that some dealers placed side bets for personal accounts or through friends in exchange for cash payments.

None of the traders or the banks they work for has been accused of wrongdoing.

Of course not. We wouldn’t want to hurt these poor babies’ feelings now would we? God’s work is very sophisticated and very important. You serfs wouldn’t understand.

Usher, Ramchandani and Gardiner, along with at least two other dealers over the years, would discuss their customers’ trades and agree on exactly when they planned to execute them to maximize their chances of moving the 4 p.m. fix, two of the people said. When exchange rates moved their way, they would send written slaps on the back for a job well done.

The conversations echo those uncovered by regulators about Libor, in which bankers promised bottles of Bollinger champagne or cash to counterparts at firms willing to help them rig the benchmark interest rates used to price $300 trillion of contracts from student loans to mortgages. More than six banks have been fined about $6 billion since June 2012, and regulators are investigating traders at half a dozen more firms.

The currency discussions were even more calculating, one of the people who reviewed the transcripts said.

Spot currency trading is conducted in a small and close-knit community. Many of the more than a dozen traders and brokers interviewed for this story live near each other in villages dotting the Essex countryside, a short train ride from London’s financial district, and stay in touch over dinner, on weekend excursions or with regular rounds of golf at local clubs.

On one excursion to a private golf club in the so-called stockbroker belt beyond London’s M25 motorway, a dozen currency dealers from the biggest banks and several day traders, who bet on currency moves for their personal accounts, drained beers in a bar after a warm September day on the fairway. One of the day traders handed a white envelope stuffed with cash to a bank dealer in recognition of the information he had received, according to a person who witnessed the exchange.

Take the money, or you’ll be swimming with the fishes.

Full article here.

In Liberty,
Mike

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Meet the “Bandits’ Club” – The TBTF Wall Street Cartel Rigging the FX Market originally appeared on A Lightning War for Liberty on December 20, 2013.

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from A Lightning War for Liberty http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2013/12/20/meet-the-bandits-club-the-tbtf-wall-street-cartel-rigging-the-fx-market/
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Friday Humor: Barney Frank Joins CNBC

Presented with ‘shockingly’ no comment…

 

 

We are sure Frank’s arrival will fix this

 


    



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Citi Warns Of "Deja Vu All Over Again" For Treasury Bond Bears

The Fed's announcement Wednesday to begin the tapering of its bond buying program (to our surprise) has been followed by a spike in the US 10 year yield; however, Citi's FX Technical group cannot help but feel that we have seen this dynamic play out before.

Via Citi FX Technicals,

Previous endings of the Fed’s bond buying programs have seen a quick spike in yields that proves to be short-lived as the reality of a still weak global economic backdrop takes hold. If history is any indication, it would not surprise us to see the US 10 year yield top out over the next few days before turning lower towards 2.40%-2.47% and potentially continue declining towards 2.00%.

The pattern here is rather clear: introductions of unsterilized bond buying programs by the Fed lead to a sell-off in Treasuries (rally in yields) while the ends of these programs lead to a rally in Treasuries (decline in yields). (We exclude Operation Twist as it was a sterilized program which did not actually expand the Fed’s balance sheet).

It is clear to us that the introduction of QE leads investors to sell Treasuries (classic buy the rumour sell the fact) and rush into riskier assets on the back of the search for higher yield and the implicit market (Greenspan/Bernanke) put that promotes complacency and financial asset inflation.

Once that market put is removed, though, the economic backdrop becomes the bigger driver of investor sentiment. At the end of both QE1 and QE2, the US recovery was still very weak and the European sovereign crisis was taking hold.

While the current economic backdrop is certainly better than that seen during those periods, we still remain in an environment where:

– The US recovery remains weak by historical standards as unemployment is still elevated and the quality of jobs created is poor, core PCE is near historical lows, corporate earnings growth is based on margin compression rather than sales growth, the housing recovery is tepid at best and 30 year mortgage rates remain at the highest levels seen since mid-2011.

 

– While fears around the European sovereign crisis have been put on the back burner, the reality is that none of the structural issues which have affected Europe have actually been resolved.

 

– The recent spike in yields has shed light on the weakness of many emerging market countries that had previously been highly favored. In our view, going forward, emerging market investments will likely be done selectively and with more caution as investors adjust to the removal of the Bernanke put. This could put pressure on many of the fundamentally weaker countries which rely on foreign financing. In line with our views expressed earlier, this could lead to flows back into the USD and US Treasuries.

 

– Oil prices remain high and show no signs of declining in the near term. This (along with higher yields) can serve as a drag on the economy, the negative feedback loop of which would also suggest lower yields going forward.

On the back of all of this, we would not be surprised to see one last move higher in the US 10 year yield over the next few days, potentially as high as 2.95%-3.00%, the converging downward sloping trend line (see previous page) and the 2013 high. However, such a move would, in our view, likely be the medium-term top and if history is any indication, a move lower in yields from there would be likely, especially given our concerns with respect to the global economic backdrop.

While we do not necessarily expect a move similar in magnitude to that seen at the end of QE1 or QE2 given both the pace of tapering and the slightly better economic backdrop, a move towards 2.40%-2.47% seems likely (those levels are the converging 200 day and 200 week (not shown) moving averages, the October 2011 and 2013 highs and the October 2013 lows).

The 2.47% level also serves as the neckline of a potential double top and a break below there would confirm the pattern, which would then target just below 2.00%. As we have previously pointed out, The US 10 year yield has historically had a tendency to top out while posting a double top.


    



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