Could Iran Be Trading Oil With Russia For Nuclear Support?

Submitted by Joe Parson via OilPrice.com,

With the help of a few former Soviet neighbors, Iran is set to revitalize their crude oil exports after the profound effect of past sanctions.

Not only has Russia offered to provide goods and services in return for Iranian oil, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have proposed reinstating oil swap deals. Oil swaps in general are not new, as they are often used to optimize logistical obstacles. In Iran’s case, it is the supply of crude oil to their refineries in the north from countries closer than Iran’s own oil fields in the south. An oil-for-goods arrangement has also occurred in the past, notably with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq trading oil for food under the auspices of the United Nations.

However, the sanctions against Iran by American and European countries do not make allowances for any such humanitarian trade. Therefore, coordinated efforts by Russia, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan could potentially bring more Iranian oil into the global oil market. Iran has offered nearly 500,000 barrels a day to Russia to export from their southern ports in exchange for food and electricity generation expertise. An excess of more than 500,000 barrels a day from Iran, most likely directed at India and China, will notably alter regional oil demand requirements.

Sanctions Inhibiting Iran’s Energy Sector

It wasn’t until 2006 that much of the developed world joined in sanctioning Iran, and finally, in 2011 and 2012, they had a notable effect on Iran’s ability to export crude oil and other petroleum products. With limited access to international finance, oil, and insurance markets, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State William Burns said, “Iran may be losing as much as $50 billion to $60 billion overall in potential energy investments [annually].”

These sanctions come after prolonged failure of UN nuclear negotiation talks with Iran. Russia, an active member of those talks, often tries to capitalize on its role to proffer access to RosAtom into the Iranian nuclear industry. Originally under the guise of preventing the weaponization of spent Iranian fuel cells, Russia now seeks to offer their services in return for Iranian oil.

Oil Swaps and Modern Bartering

In 2010, Iran stopped more than a decade of oil swaps with Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan. Iran, which benefited from the logistical simplicity, was ultimately making only $1 per barrel swapped, yet OPEC was counting the oil swaps against Iran’s quota. As Iran saw continued surges in oil prices, the $1 per barrel no longer made long term financial sense; talks had mentioned increasing the price to $5, but ultimately failed.

However, Iran’s now struggling crude production and export levels may benefit from these oil swap deals by providing a production incentive. Iran’s ability to keep domestic refineries supplied is key to its ability to optimize transportation cost and increase productivity to pay for Russian goods and services. Although Russia is currently stifled by American and European investment restrictions, they still have supply contracts to satisfy. Unfortunately, there are limited other near-term solutions to meet those contracts without American and European investment in greenfield activities in the Arctic or shale oil basins.

Iran, which agrees to provide up to 500,000 barrels a day for the exchange, is only purchasing what amounts to nearly 14,000 barrels a day of grain. The remainder has likely been allocated towards Russian goods and expertise for the “Electricity Generation Sector.” Accordingly, on Sept. 12, Russian experts presented their plan for the new Bushehr-2 Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). It is likely that the Iranian side intends on paying for these services with crude oil export out of their southern ports. This provides additional utility for Russia to satisfy export contracts with India and China without increasing domestic productivity.

Iran is thus also able to reallocate funding originally intended for goods and services now provided by Russia. This is likely to go towards mitigating sanctions that have caused a decline in new field developments, precipitating a decline in overall production.

In the event that Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are able to increase their oil production capacity, oil swaps with Iran may become an increasingly common feature to cut costs to supply distant markets. Through bartering, Russia may be able to undercut threats of an American shale oil export boom by offering reduced oil prices to Northeast Asia. Geopolitically, Russia’s support to Iran will place them in a key position to mediate potential future conflicts. However, once Russia is able to supply large quantities of oil via pipeline, Iran’s influence will likely decrease and Russia may force rapprochement to garner international goodwill.




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1BhPqnP Tyler Durden

What Comes Next?

Some investors are clearly getting out of the Fed-generated “herd” trades of recent years… where next?

 

 

This year has seen various uber-leveraged hot-money trades unwind… the commodities trade ended in Q1 (and rotated to US equities), EM debt/equity trade ended in Q2 (and rotated to US equities), and HY Credit ended in July (and rotated to US equities)… so now that we are on the cusp of the End of QE, is the US equity market “there is no alternative” trade the last man standing to be unwound?




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1DE4Jes Tyler Durden

When LEVERAGE FAILS and HOPE turns to FEAR

 

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September 26, 2014

 

When LEVERAGE FAILS and HOPE turns to FEAR

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In today’s TedBits we will be outlining a lot of smoke signals.  They signal fires burning and about to break out.  As everyone is aware, the Federal Reserve has been tightening monetary policy for almost a year now and has been joined by the Chinese central bank.   The Federal Reserve has been reducing its balance sheet expansion from $85 billion a month (85,000 million) to zero in mid-November.  While the fed does not characterize it as a tightening, it is one.  Numerous studies have put the amount of interest rate reduction to -3 % when QE3 was at full bore.  Now that the reduction is approaching zero negative interest rates are ending, they have raised rates by about 3% in real terms.  We are Austrians at TedBits and believe in all of the core truths from Ludwig Von Mises:
 
“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”
 

– Ludwig von Mises          

This is the state of the world today.  The financial system and governments would collapse if credit could not expand and steal from the future.  It is their lifeblood.  They have created a world where they always can borrow, but have made no provision for the repayment.  It is a Ponzi scheme.  The math can no longer work anywhere you look.  Since the math can’t be made to work it is obvious that covert techniques of money printing are fully engaged and no one within the system dares yell, “Fire!” and call them out on their betrayals.   Since Bretton Woods II in August 1971 when our leaders betrayed us by substituting IOUs for money, our world has become one big credit expansion, everywhere and always, REAL growth has INCREASINGLY ceased.  If there wasn’t lending for consumption called growth, the world’s economies would rightly be called in a depression.  It truly is INFLATE or DIE.  Without it, our Ponzi economies and welfare states would collapse in the insolvency they inhabit.  It is why our economies have become financialized to extract every penny in one way or another that they can from the public and transfer it to the government and the financial systems which control them (central banks and the their shareholders).  We are debt slaves and serfs to global socialist elites, which are morally and fiscally bankrupt.
 
Easy money creation out of thin air has allowed politicians to cover up poor policy decisions and buy votes for decades, and the accumulated poison is now overwhelming the ability of the global economies to grow.  Clearing out those DECADES of bad policies choices will be almost impossible.  To do so has turned what would have been a roadside bomb of POLICY adjustment into a NUCLEAR BOMB of systemic changes.  The governments that have put these anti-growth policies in place now have no memory of the policies required to create growth. Freedom and free markets, Capitalism (more for less) sound money and private property rights have all gone the way of the DODO bird: EXTINCT.  Thus, the restoration of these things is INCONCEIVABLE to them.  Nothing less will avoid the demise Von Mises speaks of.  Debt cannot compound relentlessly without the economic growth to service it.  It is called debt spirals and imminent leverage failures and it is everywhere.  We will show you several today.
 
Janet Yellen has been on a honeymoon since becoming fed chairperson and that situation is about to change in my opinion.  If you look back at the history of new fed chairmen they have always faced a challenge and Janet’s challenge is coming to the plate.  It will be Bigger than 2000 and 2008 I believe.  Keep in mind one of Ben Bernanke’s recent comments that he believes interest rates will not rise again in his lifetime.  Why? You ask?  Because the leverage in the system will collapse the very financial assets and governments which underpin the global financial systems.  It is INFLATE or DIE and it provides the additional benefit of feeding insolvent welfare states and the socialist politicians to feed their Useful Idiot supporters.  Today’s missive will put some meaning into that observation. 
 
First, let’s look at some parts of the global banking systems as a percentage of GDP in their respective economies:
 

 
Notice the average in the Eurozone is a GIGANTIC 349% of GDP in 2013 (600% in the Swiss banking giants).  If those assets declined in value by a mere 10% (hardly a correction), the average checks those governments would have to write is 35% of a year’s GDP.  Where would that money come from as these countries have surrendered the printing press to the ECB (a political exercise to gather power).  Their financial systems would collapse instantly.  Since those same banks also have gorged on Eurozone debt, their toxic assets would be quite a bit larger.  Although, keep in mind the Eurozone has passed laws calling sovereign debt risk free so it wouldn’t cause them to have to raise reserves.  But the falling prices of everything outside will.  In reality, I believe some of that decline has already occurred and a regulatory approved cover up is underway.
 
Since Bretton Wood II removed the shackles of semi-sound money redeemable in gold, growth has become a function of credit expansion as illustrated by this chart of all credit market debt from the St Louis Federal Reserve:
 

 
That brief downturn, which began in 2008, almost destroyed the global financial system, but those losses remain embedded in the system and RISKS have grown as the world has created another $30 Trillion dollars of debt according the Bank of international settlements. Yes, that is $57.5 trillion dollars ($57.5 million million) of debt (US only), spread equally among the US it is $183,300 per person.  If the average interest rate on that debt is just 4% (I believe it is much higher) then the USA needs to generate $2.301 trillion just to pay the interest on it, not including principal payment.   Debt creation for GDP expansion is dying as it now it prohibitively expensive and has reached the point of diminishing returns:
 

 
Now for every dollar of new debt the US gets 8 cents of GDP!
 
The reported GDP of the USA is now approaching $16 Trillion ($16 million million).
 
 
 
If you subtract phantom GDP, which is about 17% of this number you are looking at $13.3 trillion.  (Phantom GDP is economic activity in which no money is exchanged, for example if you own your house free and clear but could rent it out for $2500 they call that GDP, or a free checking account which they may estimate would cost $200 dollars a year, unfunded pensions called paid wages, etc.) To service the debt using the previous calculation of interest due, that $13.3 trillion must generate 17.3% just to service the debt before any wealth can be created.  That 17.3% is being paid into the financial systems (banksters) and the lenders to the government.
 
Next let’s look at the stock market – in my opinion a levitation completely spawned by the feds balance sheet expansion, friendly HFT, leveraging corporate balance sheets with buybacks, and the plunge protection team at the Federal Reserve’s headquarters on Liberty Street in New York.  All working hand in hand to foster confidence in the private sector, which has not benefited from the expansion for the most part as the spoils have gone to the big banks and pension funds for the most part.   Here is look from Lance Roberts and streetalklive.com:
 

 
When you subtract the balance sheet expansion from stock prices, the bull market in stocks since 2009 would DISAPPEAR!  It is an illusion provided by unsound money and debasement, stocks repricing to reflect the lower purchasing power of what they are denominated in.  Look at the mountain of stocks bought back at the highs with LEVERAGE: 

CORPORATIONS are more LEVERAGED than EVER, foolish CEOs and bitten the poison fruit and at previous lows they will be in negative equity. Think IBM!

Earnings growth and stock markets on all time high are a MAIN STREAM MEDIA and WALL STREET MIRAGE.  This leverage boosts earnings when revenues don’t grow and reduces taxes as the interest is DEDUCTIBLE. FINANCIAL ENGINEERING to fool the fools among us.  The stock market is out on a limb, once again of leverage.    This chart from www.dshort.com lays out the tremendous amount of leverage underpinning the stock market:
 

 
Stocks are AFLOAT on a SEA of LEVERAGE never before seen in HISTORY.  I thought we had the final spike high last spring, but those highs in price were confirmed by many things such as advance decline lines, rsi and other internals.  The most recent highs are all with bearish divergences across the board.   This next chart is Tobin’s Q ratio and it is also is at all-time highs excluding the mania high tech bubble in 2000:
 

 
Notice how previous highs preceded every major crash since 1900?    When speaking of PRICE to sales ratios levels are at all-time highs and nosebleed levels!

But the whole rally since 2009 has been on plummeting volume:
 

 
The cyclical bull market since March 2009 has occurred on declining volume.  In true bull markets, volume accompanies price.  Since this is purely a bull market that has been financial engineered by the powers that be, price is higher and volume has crashed.  This says it all.  To make this DOUBLY Dangerous, HFT (high frequency trading) has become 60 to 80% of all the trading during this period.  In 2008-9 it was less than 25%.  Thus the REAL trading (HFT trade last seconds, not minutes, hours or days, it is a ghost of real trading and the volume is an illusion) that is occurring is probably down 80% from the highs.  The HFT industry says they are bringing liquidity but during a crash and disorderly markets you can expect them to TURN OFF until orderly markets resume.  They won’t show up when needed… I promise!
 
Don’t miss the next issue of TedBits, the economic and financial no spin zone and our weekly wraps on breaking events through the Austrian lens: subscriptions are free at CLICK HERE.  Check out our new blog at www.TedBits.com  it has thousands of the hottest posts on the net.
 
The next chart is courtesy of Bob Hoye and his institutional advisors (I subscribe and urge you to do the same) and it is giving a Hindenburg Omen signal similar in magnitude to that last seen in March 2000.
 

 

  • http://ift.tt/1gGYaQe);”>50 day moving average for the NYSE must be rising.
  • http://ift.tt/1gGYaQe);”>The number of new 52 week lows must be at least 2.2% of issues that traded and changed in value. 4.2%
  • http://ift.tt/1gGYaQe);”>The new 52 week highs must also be at least 2.2% of issues that traded and changed in value. 8.5%
  • http://ift.tt/1gGYaQe);”>McClellan Oscillator (NYMO) must be negative on the day.  -28

 
Quoting Bob: “These are hard facts based what happened previously based on two and a half decades of pure Hindenburg Omen history.”

  • http://ift.tt/1gGYaQe);”>Major Crash – 27% probability. (In the last 27 years there has never been a crash without a preceding Hindenburg).
  • http://ift.tt/1gGYaQe);”>Selling panic of at least 10-15% – 39% probability
  • http://ift.tt/1gGYaQe);”>Sharp decline of at least 8-10% – 54% probability
  • http://ift.tt/1gGYaQe);”>Meaningful decline of at least 5-8% – 77% probability
  • http://ift.tt/1gGYaQe);”>Mild decline of at least 2-5% – 92% probability
  • http://ift.tt/1gGYaQe);”>The HO signal is an outright miss – 7.7% probability (one out of 13 times)

He goes on to state that the last time he saw these levels were February 29th to March 7th, 2000.  Do you remember what happened then?  Are we at the next episode of credit contraction? 
 
Now let’s look at one last stock market chart that is set up at an extreme not seen since just before the CRASH of 1987:
 

 
Moral hazard is at superhuman levels courtesy of the Feds actions since 2008, levels rarely seen in history.  This chart was self-explanatory, BEARISH sentiment is at multi decade lows… can you say be contrarian?
 
The markets are in a WOLF wave similar to the 1970s but to a much BIGGER degree (thank you Garrett Jones) and should soon plummet below the 2009 lows at it heads into the 2016 elections as the economy crumbles under the damage wrought by District of corruption in Washington and the chosen one since 2008:
 

 
US rates are the highest in the developed world by a considerable margin, take a gander at this yield chart which is now 90 days old:
 

 
Most of those countries are quite a bit lower at this time but the US is virtually unchanged, the rotation into US treasury debt is ROARING.  In many EU countries 2 year yield are at ZERO while 2 years in the US yield over 50 basis points.  Can you say dollar friendly?  As the bond bull off the 2000 lows has exploded in supply, Dodd frank has destroyed market liquidity:
 

 
Meanwhile, Interest rates on non-government debts are TURNING higher, led by the JNK (junk).  Lets look at an excerpt from the most recent Myrmikan update by Dan Oliver (I urge you to subscribe):
 

 
And the maturity wall that will have to be met into a rising interest environment courtesy of the Fed:
 

 
And let’s underline it with some recent headlines/storys from www.zerohedge.com :
 
High-Yield Credit Crashes To 6-Month Lows As Outflows Continue
 
High-Yield Bonds "Extremely Overvalued" For Longest Period Ever
 
High Yield Credit Market Flashing Red As Outflows Surge
 
The Smart Money is getting out while the getting is good as they can read the TEA LEAVES!  Would you want to be long at all-time highs heading into an ill-conceived tightening and maturity wall of that magnitude?  The academics at the fed are about to learn a lesson: credit expansion IS NOT economic growth.  Look no further that the aforementioned ETF of the JNK bonds, the duration mismatch of daily liquidity combined with the illiquidity of the bonds themselves at trading desks will be a debacle in my opinion.  ETFs in general suffer from this malady and could be a big catalyst for market crashes when liquidity disappears but RETAIL sellers are anxious to exit!  That is a prediction.


Author’s Note:  In my opinion the greatest manmade disaster and OPPORTUNITY in history is unfolding in every corner of the world.  Are you diversified or operating with EYES WIDE SHUT?  Are you prepared to turn it into opportunity by properly diversifying your portfolio?  Adding absolute return investments which are designed with the potential to thrive (up and down markets) regardless of what unfolds economically or politically?  This is what I do for investors; help them diversify into investments which are created to potentially thrive in the storm.  For a personal consultation with me CLICK HERE!


Now let’s look at a MONTHLY Continues commodity index chart and what these issues are doing there going back to January 2004:
 

THIS IS A BIG CHALLENGE!  Look at that HUGE Head and Shoulder top: under construction for 8 years!!!!  And it became active THIS MONTH.  Falling through the right shoulder and support is a BIG DEAL and signals DEFLATION.  Those are 5 year lows with momentum, which does not symbolize a recovery in the GLOBAL economy, in fact just the OPPOSITE.  This is not a chart signaling economic growth and recovery, it is just the opposite.  Look when the deflation began again: when they started the TAPER!   The rising trend line is the trend line since the 2000-2002 lows, so the secular bull is alive but the cyclical bear is going to put it to the test.  If Yellen allows the rising trend line to be punctured, things could get out of hand very quickly!
 
To affirm this picture look no further than the US dollar since 2004, a huge MULTI YEAR bottom looks to be in place in my opinion:
 

 
The dollar is on a monthly buy signal and based on the chart should RUMBLE HIGHER!  This is a picture of an unfolding disaster for the world economies; it is a freight train full of looming disasters pulling out of the station with lots of momentum yet to emerge.  Every bit of debt issued outside the US, which is dollar denominated, is BECOMING a lot less SERVICABLE as the debtors must convert their local currencies into dollars to make payments to lenders.  The higher it goes, the more they must pay!  Dollar denominated debt is actually a short position equal to the size of the borrowing.  An example is the Ukraine whose debt is over a quarter of a trillion dollars and whose currency is off 50% since January, thus their external debt in local currency terms is up 50% to $375 billion.  Or Russia, with $650 billion in external debt and their currency is off 30% pushing their obligation near a trillion.  Would you rather be the lender or the borrower?  The lender is holding the bag, think banking systems and fools who believe bombs are RISK free.  They are not risk free in a debt spiral world with no growth.
 
As the next phase of the crisis unfolds, and Yellen tightens (rush for yield in a yield less world) investor’s worldwide will behave like Pavlov’s dog and rush to the dollar for safety.  This rush has already begun. With the dollar rallying those metrics is NOW playing itself out around the world.  The principle export of the US for DECADES is and has been DOLLARS and many of the people off shore are short of them because of dollar denominated DEBT.  That is why many markets crash when the dollar rises.  They must liquidate other investments to SERVICE the debt, a margin call to levered economies.  They are in a huge short squeeze globally.  A rising dollar is ECONOMIC and FISCAL poison to a dollar debt denominated world.   Can you hear the printing presses?
 
In closing:  It’s still Inflate or Die and it is now more imperative than ever.  Everything is set to trigger a number of concurrent setbacks for investors caught in the matrix of misinformation and the mainstream media.  I have been looking for the CREDIT expansion since 2009 to end this year as I have outlined since January when the taper really started to BITE.  The FED can never remove the liquidity, ever.  The ability to do so ended in 2008 when interest rates went to ZERO, the financial system died (now on life support known as QE) and have remained there.  Tops are a process and look to be completing now as you
can see.  My latest missive on Bombs er bonds, debacle on the doorstep was done in May.  The fed and Chinese tightening will not be a ENGINEERED soft landing it is hoped it will be, I believe an economic and market crash is imminent. The Alibaba IPO was a bell ringer for stocks; a close look at the corporate structures, and valuations spells recklessness rarely seen, and let’s put a  few cherries on top as the Russell 2000 just had a death cross and approximately 40% of all Nasdaq stocks are in bear markets.  DING DING DING! 
 
I have said many times that they can never end QE as it covers the negative cash flows of so many including Insolvent governments and have done a lot to move toxic assets to central bank balance sheets where they can die a quiet death.  The fingerprints of the next contraction in the credit and global economic crash are all front and center.  I have not touched on Europe but the TRAGEDY is in full bloom from Italy to France and many places in between. 
 
The next crisis is clearly in front of us and it is much larger than the 2008 version.  The elites have only expanded the economy by issuing DEBT; remember the boom brought on by credit expansion.  Yellen will fail her tapering and ignite the next leg down in global economies; the markets are telling us so in macro!  The world is at the edge of a knife and the tightening and dollar bottom is the trigger for the next contraction.  Stock and bombs er bonds are on their highs, gold is on its lows, and reversals are at hand in my opinion. 
 
The policies to revive the economy are inconceivable to those who control the World’s economies as they are socialists.  Capitalism, free markets and sound money (which they don’t know the meaning of) is the boogeyman to be stopped at all costs.  That is what their policies are designed to do, killing all three.  It is the only solution to the world’s problems, and the politicians are killing it. Those policies of PRIVATE sector growth where implemented by their grandfathers and they missed the history lessons.  As I outlined in my last series Useful Idiots and the Something for Nothing Society, this is a societal suicide that all empires have gone through and there is no way to dodge the bullet as it is sociopaths and psychopaths leading us to our doom.  The system is now made to create failure and create money out of thin air to cover it up.  This will end.  It is the greatest opportunity in the world as the greatest transfer of wealth in history looms from those that hold it in paper to those that don’t.   Von Mises quote looms dead ahead.  May God Bless you all.


Author’s Note:  In my opinion the greatest manmade disaster and OPPORTUNITY in history is unfolding in every corner of the world.  Are you diversified or operating with EYES WIDE SHUT?  Are you prepared to turn it into opportunity by properly diversifying your portfolio?  Adding absolute return investments which are designed with the potential to thrive (up and down markets) regardless of what unfolds economically or politically?  This is what I do for investors; help them diversify into investments which are created to potentially thrive in the storm.  For a personal consultation with me CLICK HERE!
 
Don’t miss the next issue of TedBits, the economic and financial no spin zone and our weekly wraps on breaking events through the Austrian lens: subscriptions are free at CLICK HERE.   Or check out our new blog at www.TedBits.com  it has thousands of the hottest posts on the net.

 
DISCLAIMER AND TERMS OF USE: While TedBits strives to present accurate and useful information, we make no guarantee of accuracy or completeness. All information and opinion expressed herein is subject to change without notice. Opinions and recommendations contained herein should not be construed as investment advice. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or commodities. Do not assume that any recommendations, insights, charts, theories or philosophies will ensure profitable investment. The information contained herein is for personal use only. Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited.

Gold and silver backed means that various commodity options strategies in gold and/or silver may be used. When buying options, you may lose all of the money paid for the option. When selling options, you may lose more than the funds received for selling the option. Strategies using combinations of positions, such as spreads or straddles, may be as risky as taking a simple long or short position. A high degree of leverage is used to buy or sell a sufficient quantity of options and/or underlying futures contracts equal to the value of the entire portfolio. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you and lead to large losses as well as large gains. Absolute-return is not meant to imply that a positive return can or will be achieved. Absolute-return describes investment strategies which are designed to have the potential to succeed in rising, market-neutral and falling market conditions. Gold and silver backed and absolute return investments do not mean the investor will take actual physical possessions of any precious metal. Nor should any promise or guarantee be implied that such investments will perform better than any other investment in any possible future scenario described herein nor that such investments can or will preserve or protect in such possible future scenarios.

TedBits may include information obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made to ensure its accuracy or completeness. Many of the statements and views made are the opinions of the au
thor. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report is not a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of futures contracts or options on futures. There is a substantial risk of loss associated with trading futures, foreign exchange and options on futures. This letter is not intended as investment advice, and its use in any respect is entirely the responsibility of the user. Past performance in never a guarantee of future results.

 
 

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via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1DE4IXZ tedbits

ISIS Comes To America? Oklahoma Man Beheads Woman After Being Fired

A man who had been fired from a food processing plant in an Oklahoma City suburb beheaded a woman with a knife and was attacking another worker when he was shot and wounded by a company official, police said Friday. As AP reports, while questioning the suspect’s co-workers, investigators learned he had recently started trying to convert several employees to Islam. As the director of news and information for the Islamic Society of Greater Oklahoma City stated, “they have this ISIS thing on their minds and now this guy has brought it to America.”

 

 

As AP reports,

A man who had been fired from a food processing plant in an Oklahoma City suburb beheaded a woman with a knife and was attacking another worker when he was shot and wounded by a company official, police said Friday.

 

The 30-year-old man, who has not been charged, stabbed Colleen Hufford, 54, severing her head in Thursday’s attack at Vaughan Foods, Moore Police Sgt. Jeremy Lewis said.

 

“Yes, she was beheaded,” Lewis told The Associated Press before a Friday news conference.

 

Lewis said the man then stabbed Traci Johnson, 43, a number of times before being shot by Mark Vaughan, a reserve sheriff’s deputy and the company’s chief operating officer.

 

While questioning the suspect’s co-workers, investigators learned he had recently started trying to convert several employees to Islam, Lewis said. Moore police have asked the FBI to aid in the investigation and look into the man’s background because of the nature of the attack, Lewis said.

 

Johnson and the suspect were hospitalized and in stable condition Friday, Lewis said.

 

Lewis said he does not yet know what charges will be filed, adding that police are waiting until the man is conscious to arrest him.

 

Oklahoma Department of Corrections records show the suspect, whom The Associated Press is not naming because he has not been charged, has multiple religious tattoos, including one in Arabic that means “peace be with you.”

 

Lewis said the suspect had been fired in a building that houses the company’s human resources office, then immediately drove to the entrance of the business. Lewis said he didn’t know why the man was fired.

 

“This was not going to stop if he didn’t stop it. It could have gotten a lot worse,” Lewis said.

 

A Vaughan spokeswoman said the company was “shocked and deeply saddened” by the attack.

*  *  *

The alleged suspect, Alton Nolen, 30, was recently fired from Vaughan Foods in Moore prior to Thursday’s attack.

*  *  *

Whether this is related to ISIS remains a matter of speculation.

But as News OK adds,

Saad Mohammad, director of news and information for the Islamic Society of Greater Oklahoma City, said leaders of the society’s mosque in northwest Oklahoma City are on alert and taking security precautions to protect the Muslims who gather there from any violence that someone might try to attempt in retaliation for the Moore incident. He said the anti-Muslim sentiments people may have could be heightened due to the beheadings and violence being perpetrated by the Islamic extremist group ISIS overseas.

“They have this ISIS thing on their minds and now this guy has brought it to America,” Mohammad said.




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1syJ3hh Tyler Durden

Protecting Power & Privilege Has Doomed Regimes Throughout History

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

The incestuous embrace of privilege and power by entrenched, socially isolated Elites characterizes failed states and brittle, doomed regimes throughout history.

Every system is optimized to serve a specific purpose. As noted in my recent essay What Metric Are We Optimizing For?, what the system optimizes is rarely explicitly stated.

Sometimes this results from not understanding the metric that the system is designed to optimize; but in other cases, explicitly describing what the system optimizes would trigger social instability.

The Status Quo around the world–from France to China to the U.S.–is optimized to protect its Elites and the sprawling Upper-Caste of academics, managers, think-tank toadies, technocrats, apparatchiks, functionaries, factotums, lackeys and apologists who serve the Elites, and are well-paid for enforcing the Status Quo on the disenfranchized castes below.

Demographer Joel Kotkin, author of the new book The New Class Conflict, has coined the word Clerisy to describe what I have been calling the Upper Caste:America's new class system.

Oligarchs are assisted in their control by what Kotkin calls the "clerisy" class — an amalgam of academics, media and government employees who play the role that medieval clergy once played in legitimizing the powerful, and in implementing their policies while quelling resistance from the masses. The clerisy isn't as rich as the oligarchs, but it does pretty well for itself and is compensated in part by status, its positions allowing even its lower-paid members to feel superior to the hoi polloi.

Because it doesn't have to work in competitive industries, the clerisy favors regulations, land-use rules and environmental restrictions that make things worse for businesses — especially the small "yeoman" businesses that traditionally sustained much of the middle class — thus further hollowing out the middle of the income distribution. But the lower classes, sustained by government handouts and by rhetoric from the clerisy, provide enough votes to keep the machine running, at least for a while.

This describes the Savior State perfectly: a centrally planned and controlled government that enforces its absolute control via force, legal regulations and the blandishments of complicity: there's billions of dollars in free money social welfare to buy the loyalty (or at least the passivity) of the disenfranchised and marginalized.

I have often written about the stagnation of social mobility and the rise of a neofeudal arrangement of social-economic strata:

America's Nine Classes: The New Class Hierarchy (April 29, 2014)
The Three-and-a-Half Class Society (October 22, 2012)
The New American Divide (January 25, 2012)
Why Reform Won't Work (February 7, 2013)
When Belief in the System Fades (March 12, 2008)

The political, corporate/financial and National Security State Elites represent a vanishingly thin layer of the American economy and society. America today is the nightmare scenario feared by James Madison and other Federalists: a covertly created monarchical (what I term neofeudal) empire much like the Roman Empire–a republic in name but in reality a highly centralized Empire operated for the benefit of tiny Elites who buy complicity of the masses with free bread and circuses.

The "Monarchical Federalists" Madison and Jefferson feared have indeed established a neofeudal, neocolonialist Empire.

In this context, it is interesting to note that fully 20% of all entitlements (tax credits, Medicare, Social Security, etc.) flows to the top 10%, 58% goes to middle-income households and 32% goes to the bottom 20%. The swag of bread and circuses is remarkably well-distributed, buying off every sector of the populace.

Behind the PR facade of democracy and free-market capitalism, a parasitic Aristocracy extracts income and wealth from a financially indentured class of serfs. This Aristocracy is composed of several Elites which are served by the Upper Caste of technocrats. These Elites and the Upper Caste serve each others interests, a social heirarchy that Hilton Root characterized as a "society divided into closed, self-regarding groups." The slow trickle of the "best and brightest" into the Upper Caste via Ivy League university admission is also a propaganda facade, as Ron Unz ably and exhaustively proves in The Myth of American Meritocracy How corrupt are Ivy League admissions?

The trick is enable just enough meritocracy to support the PR facade. The Ivy League has mastered that balancing act.

These Elites have few if any links to the social layers below. Charles Murray spoke to some aspects of this trend of financial/social Elitist isolation from the debt-serfs and worker-bee class below in Coming Apart: The State of White America, 1960-2010, but the key dynamic that is outside Murray's sociological purview is the stark reality that the Elite class is devoid of any real feeling for or interest in the common good or public weal.

That is, not only have the key institutions of American governance and power lost the memory and mechanics of good governance, the Elites running the institutions have become an inbred neofeudal Aristocracy characterized by an unexamined (and thus deeply adolescent) sense of entitlement to the reins of power and control of the national income.

It's not just the institutions that have lost any conception of good governance– the Aristocracy ruling the nation has lost all interest or recognition of the common good. This is of course not unique to America; the same disregard for the common good is at the root of all developed-world and developing-world failed states.

The incestuous embrace of privilege and power by entrenched, socially isolated Elites characterizes failed states and brittle, doomed regimes throughout history.This is what the Status Quo everywhere is optimized for: protecting those who have secured the wealth, perquisites and power by strangling competition, democracy and social mobility.

If you want to pinpoint the one dynamic pushing the global economy into not just a prolonged recession but a parallel period of massive social instability, look no farther than the social and financial stagnation that results from optimizing the system to benefit the Elites and the entrenched incumbents who protect them from competition and the dispossessed debt-serf classes below.




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/Yktdsk Tyler Durden

Protecting Power & Privilege Has Doomed Regimes Throughout History

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

The incestuous embrace of privilege and power by entrenched, socially isolated Elites characterizes failed states and brittle, doomed regimes throughout history.

Every system is optimized to serve a specific purpose. As noted in my recent essay What Metric Are We Optimizing For?, what the system optimizes is rarely explicitly stated.

Sometimes this results from not understanding the metric that the system is designed to optimize; but in other cases, explicitly describing what the system optimizes would trigger social instability.

The Status Quo around the world–from France to China to the U.S.–is optimized to protect its Elites and the sprawling Upper-Caste of academics, managers, think-tank toadies, technocrats, apparatchiks, functionaries, factotums, lackeys and apologists who serve the Elites, and are well-paid for enforcing the Status Quo on the disenfranchized castes below.

Demographer Joel Kotkin, author of the new book The New Class Conflict, has coined the word Clerisy to describe what I have been calling the Upper Caste:America's new class system.

Oligarchs are assisted in their control by what Kotkin calls the "clerisy" class — an amalgam of academics, media and government employees who play the role that medieval clergy once played in legitimizing the powerful, and in implementing their policies while quelling resistance from the masses. The clerisy isn't as rich as the oligarchs, but it does pretty well for itself and is compensated in part by status, its positions allowing even its lower-paid members to feel superior to the hoi polloi.

Because it doesn't have to work in competitive industries, the clerisy favors regulations, land-use rules and environmental restrictions that make things worse for businesses — especially the small "yeoman" businesses that traditionally sustained much of the middle class — thus further hollowing out the middle of the income distribution. But the lower classes, sustained by government handouts and by rhetoric from the clerisy, provide enough votes to keep the machine running, at least for a while.

This describes the Savior State perfectly: a centrally planned and controlled government that enforces its absolute control via force, legal regulations and the blandishments of complicity: there's billions of dollars in free money social welfare to buy the loyalty (or at least the passivity) of the disenfranchised and marginalized.

I have often written about the stagnation of social mobility and the rise of a neofeudal arrangement of social-economic strata:

America's Nine Classes: The New Class Hierarchy (April 29, 2014)
The Three-and-a-Half Class Society (October 22, 2012)
The New American Divide (January 25, 2012)
Why Reform Won't Work (February 7, 2013)
When Belief in the System Fades (March 12, 2008)

The political, corporate/financial and National Security State Elites represent a vanishingly thin layer of the American economy and society. America today is the nightmare scenario feared by James Madison and other Federalists: a covertly created monarchical (what I term neofeudal) empire much like the Roman Empire–a republic in name but in reality a highly centralized Empire operated for the benefit of tiny Elites who buy complicity of the masses with free bread and circuses.

The "Monarchical Federalists" Madison and Jefferson feared have indeed established a neofeudal, neocolonialist Empire.

In this context, it is interesting to note that fully 20% of all entitlements (tax credits, Medicare, Social Security, etc.) flows to the top 10%, 58% goes to middle-income households and 32% goes to the bottom 20%. The swag of bread and circuses is remarkably well-distributed, buying off every sector of the populace.

Behind the PR facade of democracy and free-market capitalism, a parasitic Aristocracy extracts income and wealth from a financially indentured class of serfs. This Aristocracy is composed of several Elites which are served by the Upper Caste of technocrats. These Elites and the Upper Caste serve each others interests, a social heirarchy that Hilton Root characterized as a "society divided into closed, self-regarding groups." The slow trickle of the "best and brightest" into the Upper Caste via Ivy League university admission is also a propaganda facade, as Ron Unz ably and exhaustively proves in The Myth of American Meritocracy How corrupt are Ivy League admissions?

The trick is enable just enough meritocracy to support the PR facade. The Ivy League has mastered that balancing act.

These Elites have few if any links to the social layers below. Charles Murray spoke to some aspects of this trend of financial/social Elitist isolation from the debt-serfs and worker-bee class below in Coming Apart: The State of White America, 1960-2010, but the key dynamic that is outside Murray's sociological purview is the stark reality that the Elite class is devoid of any real feeling for or interest in the common good or public weal.

That is, not only have the key institutions of American governance and power lost the memory and mechanics of good governance, the Elites running the institutions have become an inbred neofeudal Aristocracy characterized by an unexamined (and thus deeply adolescent) sense of entitlement to the reins of power and control of the national income.

It's not just the institutions that have lost any conception of good governance– the Aristocracy ruling the nation has lost all interest or recognition of the common good. This is of course not unique to America; the same disregard for the common good is at the root of all developed-world and developing-world failed states.

The incestuous embrace of privilege and power by entrenched, socially isolated Elites characterizes failed states and brittle, doomed regimes throughout history.This is what the Status Quo everywhere is optimized for: protecting those who have secured the wealth, perquisites and power by strangling competition, democracy and social mobility.

If you want to pinpoint the one dynamic pushing the global economy into not just a prolonged recession but a parallel period of massive social instability, look no farther than the social and financial stagnation that results from optimizing the system to benefit the Elites and the entrenched incumbents who protect them from competition and the dispossessed debt-serf classes below.




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/Yktdsk Tyler Durden

Ukraine PM Cries "Russia Wants Us To Freeze" As Locals Prepare For A Long, Cold Winter

We would like to be able to commiserate with Ukraine’s US-muppet regime, we really would, but when Ukraine’s PM Argeny Yatseniuk, or Yats as he is known to Victoria Nuland, almost cried in an interview with Reuters yesterday when he pleaded that “[Russia] wants us to freeze… This is the aim and this is another trump card in Russian hands…. So, except military offense, except military operation against Ukraine, they have another trump card, which is energy”. we have just two things to say to him: i) he is absolutely correct, about Russia having the trump card that is – something obvious to everyone with half a brain from the start of the conflict, and ii) perhaps Ukraine should finally pay Gazprom not only for the gas they would like to use in the future, but also the gas they have already used and payment for which is overdue and which the IMF, i.e., the US taxpayer, gave Ukraine explicit money to pay for and instead was embezzled by the people in power.

More from Reuters on how Ukraine finally, with a year’s delay, figure out just what the endgame is:

“The ultimate goal of Russia is to organize, to orchestrate another frozen conflict in Ukraine.”

 

Russia’s state-controlled energy company Gazprom cut off gas supplies to Ukraine in June because of a row over Kiev’s unpaid gas bill, raising concerns that the country may not be able to cover the peak-demand winter season.

 

The European Commission is aiming to propose an interim solution to the gas quarrel between Russia and Ukraine at talks it is brokering in Berlin on Friday.

 

Yatseniuk said there were no official negotiations on it, though he said a plan to help Ukraine secure additional gas “would be helpful for us.”

But while we have absolutely zero compassion for Ukraine’s puppet regime, which was used and abused by their “western partners”, and is suddenly left out to dry, or rather freeze, with an imploding economy and an increasingly more angry population, where the cherry on top will be hyperinflation to follow a very vold winter, we are indeed sad for Ukraine’s ordinary people, who are merely the innocent victims in the ongoing political power struggle between Obama and Putin, and for whom the next few months will be a living hell.

Still, we are confident they will survive: here is how the Ukrainian locals are preparing, according to Bloomberg:

Since Kiev’s authorities started turning off communal hot water supplies last month to save natural gas, people with their own boilers have found unwashed friends on the doorstep armed with a towel and a bar of soap.

 

Yulia Mikulska, an accountant from the Ukrainian capital, had gone weeks without a hot shower before she visited her brother’s summer house, which is fitted with an electric water heater. “I finally got to wash myself like a human being!” the elegant 38-year-old said.

 

Ukrainians are resorting to “wash visits” along with school closures and DIY insulation as the nation of 45 million braces for a winter without enough gas. Authorities, already fighting an insurgency in the east, are scrambling to build stockpiles in a country where temperatures can drop to 20 below zero Celsius (negative 4 degrees Fahrenheit) after Russia, the main supplier, stopped shipments in June.

An early winter in Ukraine means the locals will literally have to warm themselves for the next two months:

Kievenergo, which provides heat for the capital, said it may delay supplying customers until the start of November, when average temperatures are near zero, and stop at the end of March. By providing heat for one month less than usual, it will save 5.5 million cubic meters of gas a day.

The Kiev power authority has a modest proposal to the locals: chill. Literally.

Homes will have to be kept cooler, with the thermostat set at 19 degrees Celsius, 5 degrees lower than usual, according to Naftogaz Chief Executive Officer Andriy Kobolyev. Authorities have also warned of power cuts.

Another side effect: students will be dumber, something the “Western alliance” will surely welcome:

In the western Ukrainian city of Lviv, schools will likely close during the coldest months because there’s not enough fuel to heat them. The city has introduced a 6-day week and canceled vacations in October and March to make up the time.

 

Oleksandr Poltoratskyi, director of an elementary school with 700 pupils in Kiev, decided to forgo a plan to buy laptops and spent the money on a boiler instead. “That way we’ll be sure to have hot water for the kids, even if there’s rationing,” he said.

the biggest irony is that in desperately seeking to avoid becoming part of the new USSR, the Ukraine energy company what few customers it has left to, well, revert to the practices from the old USSR:

Naftogaz’s Kobolyev advised households to revert to frugal practices from Soviet times. They should glue strips of paper to the inside of window frames to keep warm air in, he told weekly newspaper Dzerkalo Tyzhnya. Kharkiv’s city council has called on residents to volunteer to help insulate apartment buildings and pay for the repairs out of their own pockets.

Mikulska, the accountant who showered at her brother’s place, said that installing a boiler is too expensive so she’s been heating up water in an electric tea kettle to wash herself and her 9-year-old daughter. She managed to color her hair using a kettle to rinse out the dye. If there’s a power cut, she says she won’t have any heat at all.

The bottom line:

“Imagine washing your child if there’s no heating,” she said. “Now that there’s some sun we can dry things, but later, if our heaters are cold, what are we going to do?”

Well, one thing you can do is go to the parliament, and protest, demanding a change in the government – one which actually prioritizes the best interests of its own people, not those of some burecrats a few thousand miles away. After all isn’t that what got Ukraine in this sorded situation in the first place?




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1syJ0SF Tyler Durden

Ukraine PM Cries “Russia Wants Us To Freeze” As Locals Prepare For A Long, Cold Winter

We would like to be able to commiserate with Ukraine’s US-muppet regime, we really would, but when Ukraine’s PM Argeny Yatseniuk, or Yats as he is known to Victoria Nuland, almost cried in an interview with Reuters yesterday when he pleaded that “[Russia] wants us to freeze… This is the aim and this is another trump card in Russian hands…. So, except military offense, except military operation against Ukraine, they have another trump card, which is energy”. we have just two things to say to him: i) he is absolutely correct, about Russia having the trump card that is – something obvious to everyone with half a brain from the start of the conflict, and ii) perhaps Ukraine should finally pay Gazprom not only for the gas they would like to use in the future, but also the gas they have already used and payment for which is overdue and which the IMF, i.e., the US taxpayer, gave Ukraine explicit money to pay for and instead was embezzled by the people in power.

More from Reuters on how Ukraine finally, with a year’s delay, figure out just what the endgame is:

“The ultimate goal of Russia is to organize, to orchestrate another frozen conflict in Ukraine.”

 

Russia’s state-controlled energy company Gazprom cut off gas supplies to Ukraine in June because of a row over Kiev’s unpaid gas bill, raising concerns that the country may not be able to cover the peak-demand winter season.

 

The European Commission is aiming to propose an interim solution to the gas quarrel between Russia and Ukraine at talks it is brokering in Berlin on Friday.

 

Yatseniuk said there were no official negotiations on it, though he said a plan to help Ukraine secure additional gas “would be helpful for us.”

But while we have absolutely zero compassion for Ukraine’s puppet regime, which was used and abused by their “western partners”, and is suddenly left out to dry, or rather freeze, with an imploding economy and an increasingly more angry population, where the cherry on top will be hyperinflation to follow a very vold winter, we are indeed sad for Ukraine’s ordinary people, who are merely the innocent victims in the ongoing political power struggle between Obama and Putin, and for whom the next few months will be a living hell.

Still, we are confident they will survive: here is how the Ukrainian locals are preparing, according to Bloomberg:

Since Kiev’s authorities started turning off communal hot water supplies last month to save natural gas, people with their own boilers have found unwashed friends on the doorstep armed with a towel and a bar of soap.

 

Yulia Mikulska, an accountant from the Ukrainian capital, had gone weeks without a hot shower before she visited her brother’s summer house, which is fitted with an electric water heater. “I finally got to wash myself like a human being!” the elegant 38-year-old said.

 

Ukrainians are resorting to “wash visits” along with school closures and DIY insulation as the nation of 45 million braces for a winter without enough gas. Authorities, already fighting an insurgency in the east, are scrambling to build stockpiles in a country where temperatures can drop to 20 below zero Celsius (negative 4 degrees Fahrenheit) after Russia, the main supplier, stopped shipments in June.

An early winter in Ukraine means the locals will literally have to warm themselves for the next two months:

Kievenergo, which provides heat for the capital, said it may delay supplying customers until the start of November, when average temperatures are near zero, and stop at the end of March. By providing heat for one month less than usual, it will save 5.5 million cubic meters of gas a day.

The Kiev power authority has a modest proposal to the locals: chill. Literally.

Homes will have to be kept cooler, with the thermostat set at 19 degrees Celsius, 5 degrees lower than usual, according to Naftogaz Chief Executive Officer Andriy Kobolyev. Authorities have also warned of power cuts.

Another side effect: students will be dumber, something the “Western alliance” will surely welcome:

In the western Ukrainian city of Lviv, schools will likely close during the coldest months because there’s not enough fuel to heat them. The city has introduced a 6-day week and canceled vacations in October and March to make up the time.

 

Oleksandr Poltoratskyi, director of an elementary school with 700 pupils in Kiev, decided to forgo a plan to buy laptops and spent the money on a boiler instead. “That way we’ll be sure to have hot water for the kids, even if there’s rationing,” he said.

the biggest irony is that in desperately seeking to avoid becoming part of the new USSR, the Ukraine energy company what few customers it has left to, well, revert to the practices from the old USSR:

Naftogaz’s Kobolyev advised households to revert to frugal practices from Soviet times. They should glue strips of paper to the inside of window frames to keep warm air in, he told weekly newspaper Dzerkalo Tyzhnya. Kharkiv’s city council has called on residents to volunteer to help insulate apartment buildings and pay for the repairs out of their own pockets.

Mikulska, the accountant who showered at her brother’s place, said that installing a boiler is too expensive so she’s been heating up water in an electric tea kettle to wash herself and her 9-year-old daughter. She managed to color her hair using a kettle to rinse out the dye. If there’s a power cut, she says she won’t have any heat at all.

The bottom line:

“Imagine washing your child if there’s no heating,” she said. “Now that there’s some sun we can dry things, but later, if our heaters are cold, what are we going to do?”

Well, one thing you can do is go to the parliament, and protest, demanding a change in the government – one which actually prioritizes the best interests of its own people, not those of some burecrats a few thousand miles away. After all isn’t that what got Ukraine in this sorded situation in the first place?




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1syJ0SF Tyler Durden