Tag: finance

At Sprout Money we have been advocates of gold for as long as we can remember. In our opinion, every portfolio should have some exposure to the yellow precious metal regardless of the profile of the investor.

It is one of our favorite investment themes and it will remain to be so for a long time…

The reason for that is simple: the gold price has been in a secular bull market since the year 2000. We stick to that view despite the fact that in 2011 gold fell into a cyclical bear market and started crumbling just short of 2,000 dollar per ounce.

Different elements were at the source of gold’s decline:

• First and foremost competition came from the stock market, which has been in a cyclical bull market since 2009 on the back of the financial crisis.
• Secondly, the dollar has been gaining momentum again and makes gold look like a less attractive investment.
• The overall sentiment is a third element that cannot be underestimated, however, and is related to psychological factors and the media.

A majority of participants of the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey indicated that they expect the gold price to decrease, for example. In their opinion, gold will have a tough time dealing with the improving macroeconomic landscape in the US and the looming interest rate increase.

As Kitco states: “Out of 37 participants, 24 responded this week. Of those, five see higher prices, 18 see lower prices and one sees prices trading sideways. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.”

That is all nicely visualized on the infographic below.

It is important to know that most of the participants in these kinds of polls are gold bugs, which makes the result even more clear as a reference to the sentiment surrounding gold.

And then there are the classic ‘short sellers’ in gold, of which one can wonder what their hidden agenda is. Goldman Sachs, for example, stated on CNBC just last week that they are sticking to their original 1,050 USD per ounce price target for the end of the year.

Their commodity specialist gave his usual speech about the fact that safe haven buying because of the crisis in Iraq and Ukraine and the recent quantitative easing in Europe and Japan have supported the gold price a little bit.

According to this analyst the Fed is playing the part of the bad guy here, which is why he advises to short gold. The appetite for short selling is quite noticeable actually, judging by the open interest on the gold markets.

From a contrarian standpoint, that is more a symptom of a market that appears to be bottoming out than of an imminent crash, however. Meanwhile demand from retail investors seems to be stabilizing as well, as demand for gold coins like the Krugerrand or the American Eagle is slowly picking up.

And without anyone taking the time to write about it, physical gold deliveries in Shanghai doubled over the last two months. As with many things: if no one writes about it, you will find the truth at Sprout Money ;-).

The stronger demand for physical gold has the effect, moreover, of increasing the gearing of the shorts on the paper gold market.

Nevertheless, it seems like short sellers have tightened their grip on this market; open interest in gold increased which, in combination with a lower price, confirms that futures are being driven by an increase in short positions. The chart below makes that clear, especially from the 27th of August when the decline started.

This is another indication of the fact that the gold market is bottoming out.

The last thing you want to do now is state that a stronger dollar automatically leads to lower gold prices, because the recent momentum in the dollar has mostly been the consequence of weakness in other currencies; think of the strong decline in the yen as a result of the weaker Japanese economy. The ECB lowered interest rates to practically zero, and the British pound is sweating because of Scotland’s independence campaign.

A more plausible analysis is that the investment community is still not worried about systemic risks in the financial system. The stock and bond markets are still doing very well, although volatility has picked up a bit. The perceived risk has declined.

But in the longer term there are plenty of risks left in the system and demand from growth markets will remain strong as well. Many countries in the Middle East and the Far East are still net buyers of gold; the demand from the central banks of China, Russia, etc. remains strong.

The chart below makes that quite clear!

Russian gold reserves 2011 – 2014 (per ton)

Decreasing exposure to gold in your portfolio therefore does not seem like a smart move at the moment. It would be like cancelling your Florida hurricane insurance in June. Keep gold in your portfolio and profit from this temporary weakness in the yellow precious metal’s price and the sentiment on the market.

Those investors who like to time their purchases probably know already that September is the best month to buy gold as well, as evidenced by the following chart.

Gold has gained 3% on average in the month of September over the last 20 years, far ahead of November (1.8%) in second place.

The interesting part is that this usually is the result of a comeback from weaker circumstances, which is exactly the situation where in right now. Especially the weakness in the price is remarkable.

The coming months are definitely looking up for gold based on seasonal factors in countries like India and China, moreover, and it is most probable that the gold mining sector will capitalize on the revival.

In short, the current weakness in the gold price will once again be considered as a unique buying opportunity in hindsight. Unfortunately not many investors make use of these kinds of opportunities.

>>> Want to Know Where the Gold Price is Headed Long Term?

Sprout Money offers a fresh look at investing. We analyze long lastingcycles, coupled with a collection of strategic investments and concrete tips for different types of assets. The methods and strategies from Sprout Money are transformed into the Gold & Silver Report and the Technology Report.

Follow us on Twitter @SproutMoney

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/YIyIlC Sprout Money

Submitted by Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform

Kohl’s And The Rest Of The Retailers Are In Deep Doo Doo

“Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable.” ? Mark Twain

I never believe government manufactured numbers. They will always be adjusted, massaged, and manipulated to achieve a happy ending for the propagandists attempting to control and fleece the sheep. Yesterday, the government produced retail sales numbers for August that were weak and the corporate MSM propaganda machine immediately threw up bold headlines declaring how strong these numbers were. Positive stories were published on the interwebs and Wall Street hack economists were rolled out on CNBC, where the bubble headed bimbos and prostitutes for the status quo like Jim Cramer and Steve Liesman declared the recovery gaining strength. Woo Hoo.

If everyone else is whipping out that credit card, why aren’t you? Credit card debt has reached a new post recession high. They tell me consumer confidence is soaring. Forget about the 92 million working age Americans supposedly not in the labor force. Forget about real household income hovering at 1999 levels. Forget about median household net worth still 30% lower than 2007. Forget about what you see with your own two eyes in malls, strip centers and office parks as you motor around our suburban sprawl empire of debt. Those Store Closing, Space Available, and For Lease signs mean nothing.

I didn’t get a chance to peruse the commerce department drivel until this morning. They put out unadjusted data and adjusted data. Shockingly, the adjusted data is always rosier than the unadjusted data. I wonder why? I can understand the rationale for adjusting month to month data due to holidays and calendar events. But I still don’t trust the adjustments. There should not be a major difference when comparing year over year data. The adjusted data should reflect the same relationship to the unadjusted data on a year over year basis. Well guess what? It appears our friendly government drones may be pumping the current data to give the appearance of recovery. Here are my observations after taking a look at the government propaganda report:

• The unadjusted retail sales were only 3.2% higher than last August. Considering government reported inflation of 2%, that is a pretty shitty result. But have no fear. The “ADJUSTED” retail sales for August were 5.0% higher than last August. WTF? Guess which number gets reported to the sheep?
• Hysterically, your government drones consider lending deadbeats $40,000 for seven years with no money down to drive away with a GM deathtrap SUV as a retail sale. The billions in subprime auto loans led to an 8.8% YoY surge in “ADJUSTED” auto sales. It seems the unadjusted number only went up 5.3%.
• When you back out the Federal Reserve/Wall Street pumped auto sales, which will ultimately result in billions of written off bad debt (you’ll pick up the tab), unadjusted retail sales were only 2.7% higher than last August. With real inflation of 5% or more, real retail sales are negative on a year over year basis.
• Despite financing deals of 4 years with no interest, furniture and electronics retail sales were flat versus last August. If there really is a housing recovery and 2.1 million more Americans are employed versus last August how could these discretionary sales be flat, and negative on an inflation adjusted basis?
• Grocery store sales were up only 2.1% over last year. Even the government is reporting 2.7% food inflation in the last year. We all know it is closer to 10%, so people are actually reducing the amount of food they are buying. That is a sure sign of an economic recovery.
• Clothing store sales were flat and department store sales were negative versus last August. So much for the back to school storyline. I do believe August is back to school time. The Sears and JC Penney Bataan Death March trudges toward bankruptcy.
• What did surge was sales at restaurants and bars. They soared by 6.8% versus last August. We already know Darden, Yum Brands and McDonalds have reported dreadful results, so either the government is lying, soaring food prices are being passed on to customers, or people are so depressed by this awesome economic recovery they are drinking themselves into a stupor.

As a side note on the accuracy of this government data, in a previous role at IKEA, when I was a much younger man, I was responsible for filling out the monthly government retail surveys for the Census Bureau. The government drones collecting this data do not check it. They do not require proof that it is right. It is self reported by retailers across the country. Filling out this crap for the government was about as low on my priority list as whale shit. If I was really busy, I’d make the numbers up, scribble them on the form and put it in the mail. The numbers the government are accumulating are crap. And then they massage the crap. And then they publish the crap as if it means something. It’s nothing but crap.

When you see the headlines touting strong retail sales, you need to consider what you are actually seeing in the real world. RadioShack will be filing for bankruptcy within months. Wet Seal will follow. Sears is about two years from a bankruptcy filing. JC Penney’s turnaround is a sham. They continue to lose hundreds of millions every quarter and will be filing for bankruptcy within the next couple years. Target and Wal-Mart continue to post awful sales results and have stopped expanding. And as you drive around in your leased BMW, you see more Space Available signs than operating outlets in every strip center in America.

My anecdotal proof of this relentless slow motion retail trainwreck is twofold. We received our second 30% off discount coupon from Kohl’s in the last three weeks. We are so indifferent to these constant offers that we didn’t even use the first one. I have to wear dress clothes to work every day, so I went over to Kohl’s this morning when they opened at 8:00 am to get some dress shirts and pants.

The parking lot was an oasis of empty spots and there were maybe 5 customers in the entire store. I went to the mens’ section and was shocked to see about two dozen 60% to 80% off racks. There are usually two or three racks. The store was overflowing with summer merchandise. Summer is over. The store should have been overflowing with Fall merchandise. They are clearly in the midst of an inventory disaster. I found excellent dress shirts on the 70% off rack. Everything I bought was at least 50% off, even before my 30% coupon and another $10 menswear coupon.

I live in a relatively upscale suburban area and still this Kohl’s is an absolute disaster. Their gross margin is going to be hammered. Profits are going to implode. Kohl’s has always been a favorite retailer of the middle class. Decent quality at reasonable prices. Their comp store sales were between positive 5% and 15% for years, until the 2008 financial collapse. Their struggles since then coincide with the decline of middle class incomes and the fake jobs recovery. The fact that they are spiraling downward flies in the face of the propaganda being spewed by the government and media.There is no recovery for the average American.

My second data point happened on Thursday. An accident on the Turnpike forced me to take Lincoln Drive and Germantown Pike home from work (1 hour and 55 minutes of agony). I hadn’t taken this route in about six months. Germantown Pike winds through the Chestnut Hill section of Philly. This is an artsy fartsy area with boutique retail, chic outlets, and fancy restaurants. The upper middle class frequents the area. The retail stores were always open, occupied and busy.

Not anymore. I saw
dozens of empty storefronts, Space Available, and For Lease signs. The open stores had no customers. The trendy eating establishments had few patrons. Even the yuppie latte drinking areas are beginning to crumble. Every office park I passed had Space Available signs in front. The amount of vacant retail and office space in this country is too vast to comprehend and is being under-reported by the real estate whores whose job it is to rent space. Ignoring the facts and the truth doesn’t change the facts and the truth.

Do you believe the government and the corporate media, or do you believe your own two eyes?

You can ignore the government reported happy talk. When retailers and restaurants report their actual sales and profits, the truth shall be revealed. It will set you free.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/XhxNr7 Tyler Durden

Submitted by Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform

Kohl’s And The Rest Of The Retailers Are In Deep Doo Doo

“Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable.” ? Mark Twain

I never believe government manufactured numbers. They will always be adjusted, massaged, and manipulated to achieve a happy ending for the propagandists attempting to control and fleece the sheep. Yesterday, the government produced retail sales numbers for August that were weak and the corporate MSM propaganda machine immediately threw up bold headlines declaring how strong these numbers were. Positive stories were published on the interwebs and Wall Street hack economists were rolled out on CNBC, where the bubble headed bimbos and prostitutes for the status quo like Jim Cramer and Steve Liesman declared the recovery gaining strength. Woo Hoo.

If everyone else is whipping out that credit card, why aren’t you? Credit card debt has reached a new post recession high. They tell me consumer confidence is soaring. Forget about the 92 million working age Americans supposedly not in the labor force. Forget about real household income hovering at 1999 levels. Forget about median household net worth still 30% lower than 2007. Forget about what you see with your own two eyes in malls, strip centers and office parks as you motor around our suburban sprawl empire of debt. Those Store Closing, Space Available, and For Lease signs mean nothing.

I didn’t get a chance to peruse the commerce department drivel until this morning. They put out unadjusted data and adjusted data. Shockingly, the adjusted data is always rosier than the unadjusted data. I wonder why? I can understand the rationale for adjusting month to month data due to holidays and calendar events. But I still don’t trust the adjustments. There should not be a major difference when comparing year over year data. The adjusted data should reflect the same relationship to the unadjusted data on a year over year basis. Well guess what? It appears our friendly government drones may be pumping the current data to give the appearance of recovery. Here are my observations after taking a look at the government propaganda report:

• The unadjusted retail sales were only 3.2% higher than last August. Considering government reported inflation of 2%, that is a pretty shitty result. But have no fear. The “ADJUSTED” retail sales for August were 5.0% higher than last August. WTF? Guess which number gets reported to the sheep?
• Hysterically, your government drones consider lending deadbeats $40,000 for seven years with no money down to drive away with a GM deathtrap SUV as a retail sale. The billions in subprime auto loans led to an 8.8% YoY surge in “ADJUSTED” auto sales. It seems the unadjusted number only went up 5.3%.
• When you back out the Federal Reserve/Wall Street pumped auto sales, which will ultimately result in billions of written off bad debt (you’ll pick up the tab), unadjusted retail sales were only 2.7% higher than last August. With real inflation of 5% or more, real retail sales are negative on a year over year basis.
• Despite financing deals of 4 years with no interest, furniture and electronics retail sales were flat versus last August. If there really is a housing recovery and 2.1 million more Americans are employed versus last August how could these discretionary sales be flat, and negative on an inflation adjusted basis?
• Grocery store sales were up only 2.1% over last year. Even the government is reporting 2.7% food inflation in the last year. We all know it is closer to 10%, so people are actually reducing the amount of food they are buying. That is a sure sign of an economic recovery.
• Clothing store sales were flat and department store sales were negative versus last August. So much for the back to school storyline. I do believe August is back to school time. The Sears and JC Penney Bataan Death March trudges toward bankruptcy.
• What did surge was sales at restaurants and bars. They soared by 6.8% versus last August. We already know Darden, Yum Brands and McDonalds have reported dreadful results, so either the government is lying, soaring food prices are being passed on to customers, or people are so depressed by this awesome economic recovery they are drinking themselves into a stupor.

As a side note on the accuracy of this government data, in a previous role at IKEA, when I was a much younger man, I was responsible for filling out the monthly government retail surveys for the Census Bureau. The government drones collecting this data do not check it. They do not require proof that it is right. It is self reported by retailers across the country. Filling out this crap for the government was about as low on my priority list as whale shit. If I was really busy, I’d make the numbers up, scribble them on the form and put it in the mail. The numbers the government are accumulating are crap. And then they massage the crap. And then they publish the crap as if it means something. It’s nothing but crap.

When you see the headlines touting strong retail sales, you need to consider what you are actually seeing in the real world. RadioShack will be filing for bankruptcy within months. Wet Seal will follow. Sears is about two years from a bankruptcy filing. JC Penney’s turnaround is a sham. They continue to lose hundreds of millions every quarter and will be filing for bankruptcy within the next couple years. Target and Wal-Mart continue to post awful sales results and have stopped expanding. And as you drive around in your leased BMW, you see more Space Available signs than operating outlets in every strip center in America.

My anecdotal proof of this relentless slow motion retail trainwreck is twofold. We received our second 30% off discount coupon from Kohl’s in the last three weeks. We are so indifferent to these constant offers that we didn’t even use the first one. I have to wear dress clothes to work every day, so I went over to Kohl’s this morning when they opened at 8:00 am to get some dress shirts and pants.

The parking lot was an oasis of empty spots and there were maybe 5 customers in the entire store. I went to the mens’ section and was shocked to see about two dozen 60% to 80% off racks. There are usually two or three racks. The store was overflowing with summer merchandise. Summer is over. The store should have been overflowing with Fall merchandise. They are clearly in the midst of an inventory disaster. I found excellent dress shirts on the 70% off rack. Everything I bought was at least 50% off, even before my 30% coupon and another $10 menswear coupon.

I live in a relatively upscale suburban area and still this Kohl’s is an absolute disaster. Their gross margin is going to be hammered. Profits are going to implode. Kohl’s has always been a favorite retailer of the middle class. Decent quality at reasonable prices. Their comp store sales were between positive 5% and 15% for years, until the 2008 financial collapse. Their struggles since then coincide with the decline of middle class incomes and the fake jobs recovery. The fact that they are spiraling downward flies in the face of the propaganda being spewed by the government and media.There is no recovery for the average American.

My second data point happened on Thursday. An accident on the Turnpike forced me to take Lincoln Drive and Germantown Pike home from work (1 hour and 55 minutes of agony). I hadn’t taken this route in about six months. Germantown Pike winds through the Chestnut Hill section of Philly. This is an artsy fartsy area with boutique retail, chic outlets, and fancy restaurants. The upper middle class frequents the area. The retail stores were always open, occupied and busy.

Not anymore. I saw dozens of empty storefronts, Space Available, and For Lease signs. The open stores had no customers. The trendy eating establishments had few patrons. Even the yuppie latte drinking areas are beginning to crumble. Every office park I passed had Space Available signs in front. The amount of vacant retail and office space in this country is too vast to comprehend and is being under-reported by the real estate whores whose job it is to rent space. Ignoring the facts and the truth doesn’t change the facts and the truth.

Do you believe the government and the corporate media, or do you believe your own two eyes?

You can ignore the government reported happy talk. When retailers and restaurants report their actual sales and profits, the truth shall be revealed. It will set you free.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/XhxNr7 Tyler Durden

While Uber faces lawsuits and blockades around the world, it appears Toronto just took the Taxi 2.0 experience to a whole new level. Deadmau5, the famous Canadian DJ, is the latest to become an Uber X driver, and as Jalopnik shows below, he turns up in his brand new Mclaren 650S to pick up a few fares…

 

in toronto? need a lift? I’m working for @uber tonight, downtown toronto. get lucky.

— deadmau5 (@deadmau5) September 11, 2014

 

BEHOLD! The meowclaren! @McLarenAuto @Sekanskin http://ift.tt/WX6QZI

— deadmau5 (@deadmau5) September 9, 2014

 

Deadmau5 Drives for UberX

 

Picking up a fare…

 

And some images…

 

Thanks to my @Uber_TOR driver @deadmau5 for the awesome cab ride in Toronto tonight! The McLaren was puurrrrfect! 🙂 http://ift.tt/1nPi75x

— Ciara Mc Donnell (@ciara_mc_d) September 11, 2014

 

 

.@deadmau5 as an @Uber X driver? Check!! #nbd http://ift.tt/WWXTQ9

— Frederique Dame (@fffabulous) September 11, 2014

 

h/t Jalopnik

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1D5WIyG Tyler Durden

While Uber faces lawsuits and blockades around the world, it appears Toronto just took the Taxi 2.0 experience to a whole new level. Deadmau5, the famous Canadian DJ, is the latest to become an Uber X driver, and as Jalopnik shows below, he turns up in his brand new Mclaren 650S to pick up a few fares…

 

in toronto? need a lift? I’m working for @uber tonight, downtown toronto. get lucky.

— deadmau5 (@deadmau5) September 11, 2014

 

BEHOLD! The meowclaren! @McLarenAuto @Sekanskin http://ift.tt/WX6QZI

— deadmau5 (@deadmau5) September 9, 2014

 

Deadmau5 Drives for UberX

 

Picking up a fare…

 

And some images…

 

Thanks to my @Uber_TOR driver @deadmau5 for the awesome cab ride in Toronto tonight! The McLaren was puurrrrfect! 🙂 http://ift.tt/1nPi75x

— Ciara Mc Donnell (@ciara_mc_d) September 11, 2014

 

 

.@deadmau5 as an @Uber X driver? Check!! #nbd http://ift.tt/WWXTQ9

— Frederique Dame (@fffabulous) September 11, 2014

 

h/t Jalopnik

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1D5WIyG Tyler Durden

Despite promises that inflation is “contained,” the dollar ain’t quite what it used to be…

 

 

Source: The Burning Platform blog

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1s1AvJs Tyler Durden

First it was the 'broad coalition' that appeared a little narrower than President Obama explained to the world last week. Today, 2 more crucial aspects of the 'strategy' appear to be faltering. Despite the promise of $500 million to train "moderate" Syrian terrorist/rebels to fight ISIS, GlobalPost reports Syrian rebels and jihadists from the Islamic State have agreed a non-aggression pact for the first time. Under the deal, "the two parties will respect a truce until a final solution is found and they promise not to attack each other because they consider the principal enemy to be the Nussayri regime." Not exactly what Obama and Kerry had in mind. But it is John Kerry's trip to Iraq that appears to have had blowback already as Reuters reports the newly installed US-friendly PM al-Adadi ordered his air force to halt strikes on civilian areas, "even in those towns controlled by ISIS," just a day after Kerry's visit (which left Turkey explaining how it would not support US airstrikes either). So far, so good?!

 

So, to sum up…

First, Germany and UK (and Australia) – the USA' broad coalition of allies to strike ISIS – will not support airstrikes on ISIS in Syria.

As The WSJ reports,

Germany and the U.K. on Thursday ruled out carrying out air strikes on Islamic State militants in Syria, a day after President Barack Obama authorized the start of U.S. air strikes there.

 

"We haven't been asked, nor will we do it," German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier told reporters when asked about German participation in air strikes against the Islamic State, known as ISIL or ISIS, in light of Mr. Obama's speech.

 

"We need to be honest with ourselves in the current situation, we don't yet have a final, blanket strategy which guarantees that we'll be successful against ISIS and similar groups," the German minister said in Berlin.

 

His U.K. counterpart Philip Hammond explicitly ruled out air strikes in Syria, after the U.K. parliament struck down such a move last year.

*  *  *

Second, Turkey – the USA's closest ally in NATO among the Middle East – denies them its airbases for use as launch sites of airstrikes and will not support airstrikes in Syria (after John Kerry visits)

As AFP reports,

US Secretary of State John Kerry arrived in Ankara Friday for talks aimed at building a coalition against Islamic State jihadists, a visit that comes after Turkey said it would not allow its air bases to be used for strikes on the extremists.

 

The top US diplomat, touring the Middle East to establish a coalition of more than 40 countries, is to meet with Turkey's leaders including President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for talks on measures to defeat the militants in Iraq and Syria.

 

Turkey, a NATO member and Washington's key ally in the region, is reluctant to take part in combat operations against Islamic State militants, or allow a US-led coalition to attack jihadists from its territory.

 

On the eve of the visit, a Turkish official told AFP: "Our hands and arms are tied because of the hostages."

 

The official added that Turkey will "not be involved in any armed operation but will entirely concentrate on humanitarian operations."

 

IS militants hold 49 Turks hostage, including diplomats and children, abducted from the Turkish consulate in Mosul in Iraq in June.

Turkey is the only Muslim country in a coalition of 10 countries who agreed to fight ISIS at the NATO summit in Newport.

Turkey can open Incirlik Air Base in the south for logistical and humanitarian operations in any U.S.-led operation, according to the official who stressed that the base would not be used for lethal air strikes.

 

“Turkey will not take part in any combat mission, nor supply weapons,” he said.

*  *  *

Third, Iraq's newly-installed US-friendly PM al-Abadi defies the US and halts airstrikes on ISIS-held civilian areas (leaving it up to the US to be the bad guys against his people once again), and

As Reuters reports,
Iraq's Shi'ite Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said on Saturday that he had ordered his air force to halt strikes on civilian areas.

 

"I have ordered the Iraqi Air Force to halt shelling of civilian areas even in those towns controlled by ISIS," Abadi said on his official Twitter account, using the former name for militant group Islamic State.

 

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has been touring the Middle East to coordinate a response to Islamic State's growing power in eastern Syria and western Iraq.

 

Abadi said his order to protect civilians had been issued on Thursday, a day after he held talks with Kerry in Baghdad.

*  *  *

Finally, The USA's proxy boots-on-the-ground – Syria's "moderate" rebels – have signed a non-aggression truce with ISIS.

As Global Post reports,

Syrian rebels and jihadists from the Islamic State have agreed a non-aggression pact for the first time in a suburb of the capital Damascus, a monitoring group said on Friday.

 

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the ceasefire deal was agreed between IS and moderate and Islamist rebels in Hajar al-Aswad, south of the capital.

 

Under the deal, "the two parties will respect a truce until a final solution is found and they promise not to attack each other because they consider the principal enemy to be the Nussayri regime."

But apart from that, everything is going great…

*  *  *

We're gonna need a new strategy.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/WZUsYx Tyler Durden

First it was the 'broad coalition' that appeared a little narrower than President Obama explained to the world last week. Today, 2 more crucial aspects of the 'strategy' appear to be faltering. Despite the promise of $500 million to train "moderate" Syrian terrorist/rebels to fight ISIS, GlobalPost reports Syrian rebels and jihadists from the Islamic State have agreed a non-aggression pact for the first time. Under the deal, "the two parties will respect a truce until a final solution is found and they promise not to attack each other because they consider the principal enemy to be the Nussayri regime." Not exactly what Obama and Kerry had in mind. But it is John Kerry's trip to Iraq that appears to have had blowback already as Reuters reports the newly installed US-friendly PM al-Adadi ordered his air force to halt strikes on civilian areas, "even in those towns controlled by ISIS," just a day after Kerry's visit (which left Turkey explaining how it would not support US airstrikes either). So far, so good?!

 

So, to sum up…

First, Germany and UK (and Australia) – the USA' broad coalition of allies to strike ISIS – will not support airstrikes on ISIS in Syria.

As The WSJ reports,

Germany and the U.K. on Thursday ruled out carrying out air strikes on Islamic State militants in Syria, a day after President Barack Obama authorized the start of U.S. air strikes there.

 

"We haven't been asked, nor will we do it," German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier told reporters when asked about German participation in air strikes against the Islamic State, known as ISIL or ISIS, in light of Mr. Obama's speech.

 

"We need to be honest with ourselves in the current situation, we don't yet have a final, blanket strategy which guarantees that we'll be successful against ISIS and similar groups," the German minister said in Berlin.

 

His U.K. counterpart Philip Hammond explicitly ruled out air strikes in Syria, after the U.K. parliament struck down such a move last year.

*  *  *

Second, Turkey – the USA's closest ally in NATO among the Middle East – denies them its airbases for use as launch sites of airstrikes and will not support airstrikes in Syria (after John Kerry visits)

As AFP reports,

US Secretary of State John Kerry arrived in Ankara Friday for talks aimed at building a coalition against Islamic State jihadists, a visit that comes after Turkey said it would not allow its air bases to be used for strikes on the extremists.

 

The top US diplomat, touring the Middle East to establish a coalition of more than 40 countries, is to meet with Turkey's leaders including President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for talks on measures to defeat the militants in Iraq and Syria.

 

Turkey, a NATO member and Washington's key ally in the region, is reluctant to take part in combat operations against Islamic State militants, or allow a US-led coalition to attack jihadists from its territory.

 

On the eve of the visit, a Turkish official told AFP: "Our hands and arms are tied because of the hostages."

 

The official added that Turkey will "not be involved in any armed operation but will entirely concentrate on humanitarian operations."

 

IS militants hold 49 Turks hostage, including diplomats and children, abducted from the Turkish consulate in Mosul in Iraq in June.

Turkey is the only Muslim country in a coalition of 10 countries who agreed to fight ISIS at the NATO summit in Newport.

Turkey can open Incirlik Air Base in the south for logistical and humanitarian operations in any U.S.-led operation, according to the official who stressed that the base would not be used for lethal air strikes.

 

“Turkey will not take part in any combat mission, nor supply weapons,” he said.

*  *  *

Third, Iraq's newly-installed US-friendly PM al-Abadi defies the US and halts airstrikes on ISIS-held civilian areas (leaving it up to the US to be the bad guys against his people once again), and

As Reuters reports,
Iraq's Shi'ite Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said on Saturday that he had ordered his air force to halt strikes on civilian areas.

 

"I have ordered the Iraqi Air Force to halt shelling of civilian areas even in those towns controlled by ISIS," Abadi said on his official Twitter account, using the former name for militant group Islamic State.

 

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has been touring the Middle East to coordinate a response to Islamic State's growing power in eastern Syria and western Iraq.

 

Abadi said his order to protect civilians had been issued on Thursday, a day after he held talks with Kerry in Baghdad.

*  *  *

Finally, The USA's proxy boots-on-the-ground – Syria's "moderate" rebels – have signed a non-aggression truce with ISIS.

As Global Post reports,

Syrian rebels and jihadists from the Islamic State have agreed a non-aggression pact for the first time in a suburb of the capital Damascus, a monitoring group said on Friday.

 

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the ceasefire deal was agreed between IS and moderate and Islamist rebels in Hajar al-Aswad, south of the capital.

 

Under the deal, "the two parties will respect a truce until a final solution is found and they promise not to attack each other because they consider the principal enemy to be the Nussayri regime."

But apart from that, everything is going great…

*  *  *

We're gonna need a new strategy.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/WZUsYx Tyler Durden

Submitted by Simon Black via Sovereign Man blog,

What’s the easiest way to make a 500x return on investment?

You might be inclined to say, “Buy silver” or “invest in a successful startup while it’s still a privately held company.”

But if you’re a major Fortune 500 company, you generate a 500x return on investment by buying off politicians.

A prime example of this is H.R. 4950: Protecting American Jobs and Exports Act, which aims to reauthorize the US Export-Import Bank for another seven years.

First, some background. The little-known Export Import bank in the Land of the Free (Ex-Im Bank) was created during the Great Depression by Presidential executive order under FDR.

Few people have ever even heard of this bank, let alone have a clue what it does.

Officially, Ex-Im Bank is a banking corporation organized under the laws of the District of Columbia, and its capital stock is held by the United States of America.

The bank’s primary mission is to finance trade. More specifically, it provides loans to foreigners who want to buy American products.

So if you’re a Malaysian company that wants to buy a bunch of vehicles from GM, Ex-Im Bank might just float you a loan, funded and guaranteed by the US taxpayer.

The intention was to make American goods cheaper for foreign companies to buy, thus encouraging American exports. And of course, to create jobs. Always the jobs.

(In fact, there’s a bill on the floor of Congress right now to change the name of the bank to the “Made-In-America Bank”. Ufff. Cheesy.)

But who is Ex-Im really helping? Let’s look at the numbers.

Ex-Im Bank brags that they have financed exports worth nearly $200 billion over the last five years.

That certainly sounds like a lot. But at $40 billion per year, it’s a drop in the bucket compared to the $1.57 trillion that was exported from the US last year alone.

That said, research by George Mason University’s Mercatus Center showed that an astounding 76% of Ex-Im Bank’s loan portfolio directly benefited fewer than 10 huge corporations, including familiar favorites like General Electric and Boeing.

Even the government’s own Congressional Research Service found that in FY 2010, “more than 60% of Ex-Im Bank’s loan guarantees, by dollar value, supported the sale of Boeing airplanes in foreign countries.”

In fact, last year alone, Boeing received $8.3 billion in financing for its products from the Ex-Im Bank. This translates directly into sales worth roughly 10% of the company’s 2013 revenue.

So while Ex-Im doesn’t really do jack squat for the economy, they’re really moving the needle for a handful of favored companies. Especially Boeing, the bank’s #1 beneficiary.

And Boeing’s getting a pretty fantastic deal for it. According to OpenSecrets.org, Boeing spent $15.2 million on lobbying in 2013. For the $8.3 billion they received, that’s a 54,539% return on investment. Not too shabby.

Needless to say, Boeing has a huge incentive to maintain this special relationship.

That would likely explain why just in the second quarter of 2014, Boeing spent over $4.18 million on lobbying for this bill to be passed.

You see, Ex-Im Bank’s charter is due to expire at the end of this month. And HR 4950 ensures that the bank will keep operating for seven more years.

More importantly, if this bill gets passed, Ex-Im Bank’s funds will be increased by an additional $5 billion each year for at least the next seven years. Naturally the taxpayer is on the hook for all of this.

So each penny that Boeing has spent on lobbying is looking like a smarter and smarter investment.

This is how the system works, plain and simple. It’s rigged for the benefit of politicians and corporations at the expense of the individual.

Politicians get money to finance their campaigns and keep themselves in power.

Corporate leaders get their fat bonuses for hitting the numbers.

Even the bureaucrats at Ex-Im Bank have managed to line their pockets (prompting a Congressional corruption probe into the bribery of several bank employees, and Board of Director ‘conflicts’.)

As you can see, it’s a win-win situation! Except for the little guy, of course.

This is reality in the Land of the Free.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1qSUkqn Tyler Durden

Rather disturbingly, ISIS had just announced the execution of another captive:

• *ISLAMIC STATE RELEASES VIDEO SHOWING BEHEADING OF DAVID HAINES

Video is similar to ones in which James Foley, Steve Sotloff were killed, SITE says.

Jihadist monitoring website comments on today’s beheading in statement on its website

British captive David Haines, who SITE says is beheaded in video, addresses U.K. PM Cameron in video

Video purportedly shows David Haines saying he holds David Cameron “entirely responsible” for his “execution” before being murdered

“You entered voluntarily into a coalition with the United States against the Islamic State, just as your predecessor Tony Blair did, following a trend amongst our British prime minister who can’t find the courage to say no to the Americans,” SITE quotes Haines as saying

SITE says executioner appears to be same as in previous videos.

“IS Beheads Briton David Haines, Threatens to Execute Another Briton, Alan Henning,” SITE Intel Group says on Twitter.

• *ISLAMIC STATE THREATENS TO EXECUTE BRITISH HOSTAGE HENNING:SITE
• *SITE SAYS BEHEADING VIDEO ENTITLED `A MSG TO ALLIES OF AMERICA’
• *SITE SAYS VIDEO SIMILAR TO BEHEADINGS OF FOLEY, SOTLOFF
• *SITE COMMENTS ON TODAY’S BEHEADING IN STATEMENT ON ITS WEBSITE
• *HAINES ADDRESSES U.K.’S CAMERON IN VIDEO, SITE SAYS
• *SITE SAYS EXECUTIONER APPEARS TO BE SAME AS IN PREVIOUS VIDEOS

*  *  *

Link to video can be found here (warning: extremely graphic)

*  *  *

Isis photos appear to show murder of british hostage. Same Desert location. Masked man. Beheading. Disgusting.

— Richard Engel (@RichardEngel) September 13, 2014

Sounds like same british accented voice of masked militant in isis beheading video of british hostage.

— Richard Engel (@RichardEngel) September 13, 2014

As The Guardian reports,

In London, the Foreign Office has said it is aware of the video and “working urgently to verify” its content.

 

Haines, who was 44, was kidnapped last year. He had been in Syria for just three days when he was kidnapped and handed over to Isis militants.

 

The murder comes one day after the Haines’ family released a statement urging his captors to contact them.

 

The aid worker was taken while working for Acted in Syria in March 2013.

*  *  *

The 44-year-old Haines has a teenage daughter in Scotland from a previous marriage and a four-year-old daughter in Croatia from his present marriage.

Educated at Perth Academy secondary school, he has worked for aid agencies in some of the world’s worst trouble spots.

He was in Libya during its civil war in 2011, working as head of mission for Handicap International, which helps disabled people in poverty and conflict zones around the world.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1sMzLMr Tyler Durden