Tag: finance

Stock futures slumped after Trump’s weekend tariff tantrum added uncertainty to American trade policy and was another blow to bullish outlooks for 2026. The Supreme Court’s tariff ruling means a big source of fiscal revenue from 2025 may have to be refunded (although if it is refunded to US consumers, who bore the brunt of tariffs as most liberals analysts concluded, it would represent a huge pre-midterm stimulus). As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures were 0.5% lower, giving up almost all Friday gains, while Nasdaq 100 contracts sliding -0.6%. In pre-market trading, there is a defensive tone as Mag7 names are mostly lower, Semis are coming for sale (NVDA flat ahead of earnings on Wednesday); and, most sectors are seeing weakness with pockets of positive performance in HC, Aero/Def, Materials, and Utilities.  “We started 2026 with a bullish outlook — but not even two months into the year, many of our assumptions are being challenged,” wrote the Bloomberg Economics team led by Anna Wong. The risk of war in Iran and the AI scare are also denting optimism. The dollar recouped losses while bond yields are flat-to-down 1bp after spiking on Friday on fears the SCOTUS ruling will unleash much more debt issuance. Commodities are seeing weakness in Energy with WTI down 60bp, Ags being sold perhaps on lower tariffs, and precious metals maintain their incessant bid. Today we get factory orders and the final December durable goods report. Key events this week include Trump’s State of the Union Address tomorrow, Nvidia earnings on Wednesday and PPI data on Friday.

In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven are mostly lower, with the lone exception being GOOGL which rises 0.3% as Wells Fargo upgrades to overweight, calling the search giant an “AI winner.” Others are all down (Nvidia -0.2%, Microsoft -0.5%, Apple -0.5%, Meta Platforms -0.7%, Amazon -0.9%, Tesla -0.9%)

• Arcellx Inc. (ACLX) soars 78% after Gilead Sciences Inc. agreed to buy the biotech in a deal with an equity value of up to $7.8 billion.
• Domino’s Pizza Inc. (DPZ) climbs 4% after the company reported a larger-than-expected rise in comparable sales, as consumers were drawn to the pizza chain’s budget-friendly pies.
• International Paper (IP) falls 6% and Smurfit (SW) drops 6% as analysts note that a surprise price drop in domestic containerboard is negative for packaging companies.
• MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) rises 4% after the drug developer gave topline results from a mid-stage trial of its experimental therapy for patients with an inflammatory disease that mainly affects the spine.
• Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA) climbs 40% after the FDA approved the firm’s oral medication for treating manic or mixed episodes in bipolar I disorder and schizophrenia in adults.
• Veris Residential (VRE) rises 12% after agreeing to be acquired by an investor consortium led by Affinius Capital in partnership with Vista Hill Partners, in an all-cash transaction for $19 per share.
• VF Corp. (VFC) declines 3% as JPMorgan cuts its rating on the apparel and shoe company to underweight and trims profit estimates for upcoming years.

In corporate news, Honeywell slashed its price to acquire Johnson Matthey’s Catalyst Technologies business in a move to save the deal from falling apart. OpenAI is projecting that its revenue will grow at a fast clip in the next few years and exceed $280 billion in 2030, according to a person familiar. Hynix pledged to boost output of AI memory chips to meet a surge in demand.

The latest questions over tariffs following the SCOTUS rejection of Trump’s signature trade policy are giving traders another focal point in markets that have been grappling with concerns about artificial intelligence and tensions in the Middle East. Investors will also closely follow Trump’s State of the Union address on Tuesday and Nvidia Corp.’s earnings the following day.

“Markets quickly realized that the ruling might not change much in the near term and will rather increase uncertainties,” said Stephan Kemper, chief investment strategist at BNP Paribas Wealth Management. “Donald Trump is not known to avoid a fight or give up easily.”

Trump responded to the ruling by imposing a new 10% global levy, vowing to use other powers to maintain his signature trade policies. He upped that to 15% the next day. US Trade Rep Jamieson Greer said the tariff-policy defeat won’t unravel individual deals the administration has sealed with trading partners. Still, the EU is poised to freeze the ratification process of its deal with the US and is seeking more details from the Trump administration. However, senior US officials, including Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, signaled over the weekend that the court decision wouldn’t unravel agreements already negotiated.

“The question is about the benefit of the rebates versus the extra uncertainty that the trade issues are causing, and for me the latter wins,” JPMorgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist Hugh Gimber told Bloomberg TV. “That for me risks putting business activity on hold, because companies simply don’t know what’s to come further down the line.”

For JPMorgan strategists, an equity-market pullback driven by global tariff policies or an escalation in Iran could create dip-buying opportunities as long as the macro backdrop remains positive. “Adverse geopolitical headlines” could lead to de-risking given the recent rally and stretched technicals, wrote the team led by Mislav Matejka. “But we believe that these will not be long-lasting, and should be seen as buying opportunities.”

Meanwhile, the hunt for AI losers (and winners) continues in both public and private markets. Today’s Big Take looks at the fallout in private credit after Blue Owl, a prominent software lender, permanently shut the gates on one of its funds. The biggest AI event this week comes in the form of Nvidia results. Still, the chip giant’s stock is stuck in a range and even blowout earnings may not lift it according to Bloomberg.

“We started 2026 with a bullish outlook — but not even two months into the year, many of our assumptions are being challenged,” wrote the Bloomberg Economics team led by Anna Wong. The Supreme Court’s tariff ruling means a big source of fiscal revenue from 2025 may have to be refunded. The risk of war in Iran and the AI scare are also denting optimism.

European indices are mixed, Stoxx 600 is down 0.4%. Trade uncertainty dominates the macro conversation with the EU set to halt its trade deal with the US. Technology and health care shares led declines, while banks and utilities were the biggest outperformers. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• Novo Nordisk shares fall 11% after the firm said its Cagrisema product fell short of Lilly’s Zepbound in a trial
• Enel shares rise as much as 6.1%, the most since March 2022, after the Italian energy company forecast higher-than-expected dividends and EPS growth, and announced a €1 billion share buyback
• ABN Amro Bank shares rise as much as 3.7%, the most since November, after BofA Global Research raises its recommendation on the lender to buy from neutral
• JD Sports shares climb as much as 6.5% after the sportswear retailer said it plans to return £200 million to shareholders through buybacks in its 2027 fiscal year
• Quilter shares rise as much as 3.9% after being placed on JP Morgan’s Positive Catalyst Watch ahead of its results for the full year of 2025 as analysts see upside risk due to the British wealth manager’s expected share buyback
• Johnson Matthey shares fall as much as 17%, most since 2021, after Honeywell cut the price it’s paying for the UK company’s Catalyst Technologies business
• Belimo shares fall as much as 12% after analysts expressed concerns over the heating and cooling equipment maker’s guidance for 2026 and the delayed impact of tariff decisions
• Pernod Ricard shares drop as much as 4% after being downgraded at Deutsche Bank, with analysts pointing to the stock’s year-to-date outperformance and uncertainty about the alcoholic beverage maker’s growth
• EQT falls as much as 4.5% on Monday as Citi trims its price target, while maintaining its buy rating on the Stockholm-based investment firm, amid concerns that AI-driven volatility could slow private-markets activity

Earlier in the session, Asia’s equities rose to hover near record highs, driven by gains in tech, while investors weigh the impact of US President Donald Trump’s latest slate of tariffs on the region.  The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index advanced as much as 1.3%, with Tencent and Alibaba among the biggest boosts to the gauge. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 2.8%, while tech-heavy benchmarks in Taiwan and South Korea rose as well. After the US Supreme Court ruled Friday that Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose duties was illegal, China and India now stand to gain from lower tariff rates on exports to the US. Investors across the region are eyeing more economic turbulence after Trump’s latest vow to hike his global levy to 15%, from the 10% announced just a day earlier. The markets have largely looked past concerns over tariffs and are more focused on other factors such as the broader economic landscape and the AI trade, she said. Trading in Japan and onshore China is shut today and will resume tomorrow

In FX, the dollar kicked the session off on the backfoot versus most majors but has since turned positive. Trade sensitive currencies such as Aussie dollar, Swedish krona and Norwegian krone underperform.

In rates, treasuries were marginally higher, with the 10-year yield falling one basis point to 4.07%. US natural gas prices rose as a winter storm swept the northeastern region. 

In commodities, spot gold and silver have benefited from the risk aversion, up 1% and 2.6% respectively. Oil has pared the bulk of its declines, with US and Iran discussions set to resume this week. US natural gas prices jumped as powerful winter storms swept the northeastern region. Bitcoin briefly slid below $65,000 on Monday for the second time this month. Bitcoin is down 2% but recovering after a brief foray below $65,000.

The US economic calendar slate includes January Chicago Fed national activity index (8:30am), December factory orders (10am) and February Dallas Fed manufacturing activity (11am). Fed speaker slate includes Waller, speaking on the economic outlook at 8am

Market Snapshot

• &P 500 mini -0.5%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.6%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.6%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.3%
• DAX -0.6%
• CAC 40 +0.1%
• 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.08%
• VIX +0.8 points at 19.92
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1187.86
• euro +0.1% at $1.1798
• WTI crude -0.6% at $66.06/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Iran has indicated it is prepared to make concessions on its nuclear program in talks with the U.S. in return for the lifting of sanctions and recognition of its right to enrich uranium, as it seeks to avert a U.S. attack. RTRS
• Mexico Takes On Cartels as Killing of Drug Kingpin Sparks Violence… Gunmen Wreak Chaos in Mexican Coastal Retreat After Cartel Killing: WSJ
• The European Union is poised to freeze the ratification process of its trade deal with the US and is seeking more details from President Donald Trump’s administration on its new tariff program: BBG
• India is studying the implications for its bilateral trade deal with Washington after the US Supreme Court scrapped President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs: BBG
• German business confidence brightened more than anticipated in February, with an expectations index increasing to 90.5 from a revised 89.6 in January. BBG
• India postponed talks on an interim trade deal with the US. China and Brazil are top winners from the Supreme Court decision, while the UK risks emerging as the main loser, according to Global Trade Alert. BBG
• UK job vacancies dropped to their lowest in five years and graduate posts fell to a record low in January. BBG
• The European Central Bank is asking individual lenders for details on their lending to areas including data centers amid concern over hidden credit exposures and financial-sector disruption: BBG
• Blue Owl’s selloff is deepening fears about liquidity risks and excesses in the $1.8 trillion private credit market. Private equity returned fewer profits to investors for a fourth year as firms sit on $3.8 trillion of unsold assets. BBG
• South Korea’s exports climbed 47.3% year on year in the first 20 days of February, fueled by AI-driven chip demand. The BOK said the country’s 2026 growth outlook improved on strong chip demand. BBG
• U.S. Elite Troops Hardened by War on Terror Retrain for Arctic Combat: WSJ
• Novo Nordisk Shares Plunge After Obesity Drug Fails to Beat Zepbound: WSJ
• Singapore’s core CPI fell short of expectations in Jan, coming in at +1% (vs. the Street +1.5%) while the headline number was inline at +1.4%. BBG
• Venezuela’s Leaders Killed the Economy. They Are Still In Charge.: WSJ
• US natural gas futures jumped as the East Coast storm spiked heating demand and LNG exports climbed. BBG

Trade/Tarfiffs

• US President Trump said on Saturday that he will increase the global tariff that was announced on Friday from 10% to 15% with immediate effect. Trump also stated that the 15% level is the maximum allowed by law and is still temporary, as Section 122 tariffs, and they will use the 150 days that the temporary tariff allows to work on issuing other legally permissible tariffs.
• EU is set to freeze trade deal approval over US President Trump’s tariff risk, Bloomberg reports.
• US officials said that tariff deal partners should honour their agreements, while USTR Greer said he sought to separate the tariff agreements from the 15% global tariff that US President Trump recently announced.
• White House clarified that goods shipped under the USMCA will be exempt from the new global tariff that US President Trump announced on Friday, although risks regarding the future of the USMCA loom.
• German Chancellor Merz said expect the tariff burden on the German economy to be reduced following the US Supreme Court decision, while he added that they will have a very clear European position on this, as tariff policy is a matter for the EU, not individual member states, and he will go to Washington with a coordinated European position.
• US to cease collecting duties under IEEPA from 00:01EST/05:01GMT on February 24th, according to the Customs Agency.
• Goldman Sachs analysts indicate most Asian economies will experience slightly lower US tariffs after the Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs, with China expected to see the largest decline.
• China’s MOFCOM said it is assessing the US Supreme Court’s ruling on tariffs and urges the US to lift unilateral tariffs on trading partners. US tariffs on reciprocal goods and fentanyl breach trade rules and US law, and are not in the interest of any party.
• South Korea’s Industry Minister said chips are not subject to Trump’s new tariffs and noted uncertainty regarding US tariffs refund and that consultations with the US on tariffs and trade agreements will continue.
• South Korea’s Finance Minister said the trade deal with the US is still valid.
• Japanese ruling LDP tax chief Onodera said the US tariff situation was a real mess following the SCOTUS tariff ruling.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said nothing has changed on tariff revenue and trade deals; The tariff collection is closer to USD 130bln, probably not USD 175bln. Will get back to same tariff level for countries, and it will be less direct. Thinks that every country will honour the trade deals. Would call on all countries to honour their agreements and move forward.
• All countries with trade agreements now drop to a 10% tariff, and the 10% rate applies until new authorities and processes kick in, according to CNBC citing a White House official.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed amid trade uncertainty as the region digested the latest tariff developments after the US Supreme Court ruled against IEEPA tariffs on Friday, prompting President Trump to impose a global 10% flat-rate tariff, which he later raised to 15% over the weekend, while there were a couple of key market closures in the region with mainland China and Japan observing holidays. ASX 200 was dragged lower with underperformance seen in tech, healthcare and real estate, while participants also reflected on a deluge of earnings releases and the recent Trump 15% global tariff rate announcement, which would increase the levies on Australia from the previously agreed 10%. KOSPI initially benefitted from the tech strength amid gains in the likes of industry heavyweights Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, while South Korea’s Industry Minister also noted that chips were not subject to Trump’s new tariffs. However, the index then gradually gave back all its gains. Hang Seng rallied with tech stocks dominating the list of best performers in Hong Kong and with the local benchmark underpinned as a proxy to China, which is seen as the likely biggest winner from the US Supreme Court tariff ruling.

Top Asian News

• China reportedly experienced robust consumer activity across sectors during the Spring Festival holiday, according to China Daily.
• South Korea’s Vice Finance Minister said to closely watch financial markets.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.3%) show a mixed picture following the shifting tariff environment in recent days. The IBEX 35 (+0.8%) and FTSE MIB (+0.7%) outperform their peers, while the AEX (-0.3%) and DAX 40 (-0.5%) lag. European sectors are mixed. Consumer Products and Services (+1.1%), Banks (+0.8%) and Utilities (+0.9%) gain at the start of the week, aided by multiple broker upgrades for banks while Enel (+5.9%) supports the Utilities sector. The Co. updated its 2026-28 strategic plan, raising its planned investment to EUR 53bln from EUR 43bln, seeing cuts of up to EUR 700mln by 2028 and approved the execution of a new tranche of its share buyback programme. On the other hand, Technology (-1.4%) and Health Care (-1.6%) underperform. European tech giant ASML (-1.9%) seems to have been hit on OpenAI planning USD 600bln in compute spending by 2030 (prev. cited USD 1.4tln).

Top European News

• German Ifo Business Climate (Feb) 88.6 vs. Exp. 88.4 (Prev. 87.6).
• German Ifo Expectations (Feb) 90.5 vs. Exp. 90.3 (Prev. 89.5).
• German Ifo Current Conditions (Feb) 86.7 vs. Exp. 86.3 (Prev. 85.7).
• Italian Inflation Rate MoM Final (Jan) M/M 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.2%).

FX

• DXY is slightly lower this morning and trades within a 97.35 to 97.70 range. Further pressure could see a test of its 21 DMA at 97.15. All focus today on Trump’s latest decision to impose a sweeping 15% Section 122 import tariff, following the SCOTUS decision to rule IEEPA tariffs as unlawful. The implications of the decision are mixed, with the likes of the UK and Australia now worse off, whilst the likes of Brazil and China benefit from the lower rates. SEB writes that the preliminary estimate of the global average tariff rate is now marginally lower at 12%, which is 1-2 percentage points lower than the prior rate. The Budget Lab also sees the effective tariff rate at 13.7% (prev. 16% under IEEPA taxes).
• As it stands, there is some near-term certainty regarding Section 122 tariffs, which can be implemented for a maximum of 150 days. Thereafter, any extension would need to be passed through Congress. Therefore, uncertainty stems from several points; a) how the US aims to “make-up” for lost tariff revenue, b) how trade partners react to the latest levies, c) the potential use of other trade-related policies (Section 301, Section 338, Section 232).
• G10s are broadly firmer against the USD; the GBP and EUR leads, whilst the Aussie lags a touch. The latter is slightly underperforming, given Australia no longer benefits from its previously negotiated 10% rate, under IEEPA.
• For the EUR specifically, European Parliament’s trade chief is to propose freezing the ratification of the EU’s trade agreement with the US until they receive details from the Trump administration regarding its trade policy. On data, the German Ifo report improved from the prior and surpassed expectations, suggesting the region’s recovery is underway. Elsewhere, Japan’s ruling LDP tax chief Onodera, described the US tariff situation as a real mess. USD/JPY currently trades shy of the 155.00 mark, with the high of the day at 154.90, a touch above its 100 DMA at 154.90.

Central Banks

• Fed’s Hammack (2026 voter) said inflation has made amazing progress, but is still a problem, and the Fed can be very patient in considering future rate cuts. Hammack said monetary policy is only modestly restrictive and the economy was stronger than anticipated by December, while she added that tariffs have the potential to further complicate the inflation outlook.
• ECB’s Lagarde receives around EUR 140k a year as Bank for International Settlements board member, despite the ECB ban on third-party payments to staff, according to FT.
• BoK Governor Rhee said FX market conditions have improved but still need to be stabilised.

Fixed Income

• A relatively contained start for fixed income as markets continue to digest the latest tariff measures, and with APAC conditions thin on account of Japan’s holiday for the Emperor’s Birthday.
• USTs are firmer by a few ticks in thin 112-27+ to 113-02+ parameters, within but at the top end of Friday’s 112-23+ to 112-03+ confine; as a reminder, last week’s peak was 113-14. Focus is primarily on the tariff situation, as the latest POTUS measures in response to the SCOTUS ruling have effectively lowered the global rate by a pp or two. However, we of course remain attentive to any further updates by President Trump and/or his administration in the near term. Additionally, we await remarks from Fed’s Waller (voter), commentary that will be scrutinised for his tariff take. Thus far, Logan (2026) said the SCOTUS decision has led to more uncertainty and upside inflation risks remain, but noted that policy is well-positioned. Musalem (2028) stated that if the new tariffs are one-for-one, the outlook would be unchanged, but added that the ruling could introduce uncertainty. Note, the remarks were made before the weekend’s move to 15%.
• Bunds are contained, but at the lower end of c. 20 ticks parameters. The benchmark has found itself under modest pressure this morning as European cash bourses trade mixed and with futures attempting a move into the green. Ahead, supply from the bloc is scheduled, but the main focus will be on how the Hungarian block on Ukraine-related policies/sanctions by the EU shakes out.
• Gilts gapped higher by 11 ticks and then climbed a handful further to a 92.51 peak. Upside that comes as the 15% global effective tariff lifts the UK above the 10% it used to be subject to, and thus skews the bias towards a March vs April cut by the BoE. The main input into that debate this week will be the appearance of Governor Bailey at the TSC.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks are more subdued in the early European session as the market continued to digest Trump’s 15% tariff decision in response to SCOTUS’ striking down his IEEPA tariffs. It’s worth noting that crude benchmarks have had their best year thus far since 2022 (the same year Russia invaded Ukraine), and as geopolitical tension continues to persist, US-Iran talks are set to resume this week.
• Precious metals have kicked off the week glowing amid uncertainties from tariffs and geopolitical tension with Iran, increasing their prospect as a haven. Following the SCOTUS decision, US President Trump raised global tariffs to 15% over the weekend, fuelling market uncertainty. Following the tariff updates, the USD weakened, consequently aiding precious metals. Focus also remains on the US and Iran, with a NYT report that US President Trump is reportedly considering a targeted strike on Iran, followed by a larger attack on Iran. Iran also responded, saying that any US attacks, including limited strikes, will be considered an act of aggression. Any further escalation after both countries are set to meet on Thursday will further elevate the precious metals. XAU and XAG are trading at the upper range of USD 5117.815-5146.990/oz and USD 84.227-87.663/oz, respectively.
• Copper appears to be paring some of its recent gains as markets digested the latest tariff developments, with US President Trump’s 15% flat-rate tariff seen as benefiting countries such as China and Brazil the most, while weighing on longer-term allies. Activity for the red metal has also picked up this morning, whilst mainland Chinese markets are due to reopen tomorrow. 3M LME copper trades in a tight range of USD 12,928-13,063/t. In other news, JPMorgan forecasts a copper deficit of 130k tonnes in 2026 and a 230k in the aluminium market in 2026
• JPMorgan forecasts a copper deficit of 130k tonnes in 2026.
• Lebanese bankers and politicians are eyeing a sale or lease of part of the central bank’s large gold reserves to rescue banks and the economy, according to FT.
• Japan is mining for deep sea rare earths to combat China’s chokehold, according to FT.
• Goldman Sachs raises its 2026 Q4 Brent oil forecast by USD 6 to USD 60/bbl.
• Morgan Stanley raises its near-term Brent forecasts as geopolitical risk premium likely persists for a period, still expects prices to soften to USD 60/bbl later in 2026.
• Chevron (CVX) announces an agreement for Iraq’s West Qurna 2 oil field.

Geopolitics – Middle East

• US President Trump reportedly considers a targeted strike on Iran, followed by a larger attack and is open to deposing the Supreme Leader by force if Iran is stubborn, according to NYT.
• US officials warned that if US President Trump orders strikes on Iran, Tehran could retaliate through proxies such as Hezbollah or Al-Qaeda, against American targets abroad.
• US-Iran talks are set to resume in Geneva on Thursday, according to Omani mediators, while Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi expects to meet with US Special Envoy Witkoff for discussions and reiterated that Iran will not be pressured by the military buildup in the region.
• Iran said any US attack, including limited strikes, will be considered an act of aggression.
• Iran Foreign Ministry spokesperson said there are discussions about the presence of IAEA’s Grossi in the third round of negotiations, Iran International reported; adds that Iran is working on a draft for any possible understanding.
• Iran’s Foreign Ministry said they hope to have another round of talks with the US in the coming days. Regarding IAEA Grossi’s view that there cannot be an agreement unless the inspection of bombed nuclear facilities is allowed, Iran said it does not accept that precondition.
• South Korean Embassy in Iran advised Korean nationals to leave Iran amid increasing tensions over a possible US military strike on Tehran, according to Yonhap.
• Palestinian media reported that Israeli artillery shelling is targeting areas in northeast Gaza City, according to Sky News Arabia.
• US officials warned if US President Trump orders strikes on Iran, Tehran could retaliate through proxies such as Hezbollah or Al-Qaeda against American targets abroad.
• Palestinian media reported Israeli warplanes launched two raids on Khan Yunus in the southern Gaza Strip, according to Sky News Arabia.
• US forces begin withdrawing their troops from Syria to Iraqi Kurdistan, according to Al Jazeera.

Geopolitics – Ukraine

• Russian Defence Ministry said Russian forces struck Ukrainian transport, energy and fuel infrastructure.
• EU Foreign Representative Kallas said she is not optimistic regarding potential progress in peace talks with Russia. Strong statements from Hungary indicate they will not change their stance on Russian sanctions today.
• Hungarian Foreign Minister said they will block EU decisions in relation to Ukraine until flows to the nation resume through the Druzhba pipeline.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: United States Jan Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. -0.08, prior -0.04
• 10:00 am: United States Dec Factory Orders, est. -0.6%, prior 2.7%
• 10:00 am: United States Dec F Durable Goods Orders, est. -1.4%, prior -1.4%
• 10:00 am: United States Dec F Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.9%, prior 0.9%
• 10:30 am: United States Feb Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. -0.75, prior -1.2

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As we start a new week, a great deal has happened since early Friday afternoon European time. By now, readers will be aware that the US Supreme Court ruled, by a 6–3 margin, that the administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad based tariffs was unconstitutional.

In the immediate aftermath, the administration signaled that it would pursue a 10% global tariff under Section 122 authority. By Saturday, this was increased to 15%—which, importantly, is the maximum tariff that can be imposed using this route. Key implementation details remain unclear, including the treatment of existing trade agreements and how refunds (with interest) will be handled for tariffs collected under the now invalid IEEPA framework.

This leaves a substantial amount of uncertainty, even if markets initially welcomed the perceived clarity of “only” a 10% tariff on Friday. Looking ahead, the reality is that the 15% tariff imposed under Section 122 can only remain in place for 150 days (late July), after which Congressional approval would be required to extend it. Section 122 was designed as a temporary tool to address emergency balance of payments issues and would likely face further legal challenges if rolled over repeatedly.

That raises a key political question: will a small number of Republicans in either chamber be reluctant to support what could be framed as an extension of a consumer tax hike just three and a half months before the mid term elections? At that point, the administration faces a binary choice: try to secure an extension or allow the tariff to lapse. The latter appears the more likely outcome. In that scenario, the administration would probably pivot to other legal authorities—most notably Section 232 (national security) or Section 301 (unfair trade practices)—to re establish a more durable tariff regime. While the groundwork for such a move has almost certainly been laid, these measures are narrower in scope and would themselves be vulnerable to legal challenge.

Importantly US Trade Representative Greer seemed to suggest yesterday that trade deals already agreed will remain in place and not be exposed to the new higher rate. In addition, the new Section 122 tariff info sheet confirmed that the temporary duty taking effect midnight tomorrow will exempt various categories that were previously exempt under IEEPA tariffs, such as critical minerals, pharma, electronics and USMCA-compliant goods. Put together, the Yale Budget Lab estimates the effective tariff rate at 14% under the 15% Section 122 tariffs, down from 16% before the Supreme Court IEEPEA ruling, and that this would fall to 9% if the Section 122 tariffs expired.

This confirms the DB house view that we continue to expect the effective tariff rate to fall in 2026. Indeed, since October the average customs duty collected has already declined by around two percentage points, to roughly 11%, largely due to carve outs and exemptions. Some of this easing has been attributed to the administration’s weak showing in local elections in early November, highlighting the domestic political constraints on another aggressive tariff escalation.

It will be interesting to see if the assurances from the likes of Greer ease concerns of those who have already agreed deals. Ahead of an emergency meeting today, European Parliament trade committee chair Bernd Lange suggested freezing ratification of the Turnberry Agreement “until we have a comprehensive legal assessment and clear commitments from the US.” As he put it: “Nobody can make sense of it anymore—only unanswered questions and growing uncertainty for the EU and other US trading partners.” So the only thing that’s certain is that we are certain that we don’t quite know how this is going to pan out but net net we still believe the effective tariff rate is coming down in 2026.

The weekend news has helped S&P (-0.74%) and Nasdaq (-0.94%) futures decline along with the Dollar index (-0.34%). Euro Stoxx futures (-0.54%) are also lower. US and European bond futures are rallying slightly with US cash trading closed due to the holiday in Japan. Elsewhere in Asia markets are more bouyant with the Hang Seng (+2.29%) leading gains after significant losses last week, buoyed by strength in technology, industrial, and automotive stocks, whereas the KOSPI (+0.18%) is just about holding onto its gains after an initial rise of over +1.0%. In contrast, the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.69%) is lower.

If we can move on from the latest tariff news, we will also have more geopolitical headlines to contend with this week, as the latest round of US-Iran talks is expected in Geneva on Thursday. The talks come amid a recent buildup of US forces in the region and yesterday the New York Times was the latest outlet to report that Trump is considering an initial targeted strike against Iran in the coming days, which could be followed by a larger attack if Iran does not give in to US nuclear demands. Brent oil prices are -1.21% lower this morning trading at $70.85/bbl as we go to press as some of the weekend risk premium is being unwound.

Other highlights for the week ahead include the State of the Union address in the US (late tomorrow), US PPI and preliminary CPIs in Europe (both Friday). In earnings, the focus will be on Nvidia, Salesforce (both Wednesday) and Home Depot (tomorrow). Nvidia’s earnings could be the most important of these but expect lots of headlines from the State of the Union speech.

Friday’s US PPI release—where headline and core inflation are both forecast at 0.3%—will matter less in isolation than for its implications for the core PCE deflator. While January CPI surprised to the downside relative to our expectations, the implications for core PCE continue to appear less favourable, with our economists currently looking for a 0.4% monthly increase. Depending on the strength of key PPI components such as medical services, airfares, and portfolio management fees, a 0.5% increase in January core PCE cannot be ruled out, which would lift the year-over-year rate to around 3.1%. So an important release, especially in the sub-components.

There is a fair degree of Fed speak this week, with Waller (today and tomorrow) a highlight given he dissented in favour of a 25bps cut in January due to concerns over the labour market. However, we’ve subsequently seen a firm January jobs report and a firm December core PCE print, so will he shift his stance a bit? See the day-by-day week ahead at the end as usual for the rest of the Fed speakers and the key global data.  

Elsewhere in the world, we have the German Ifo today and the preliminary European February CPI prints including for countries such as Germany, France and Spain, among others, on Friday. There will also be economic sentiment measures for key economies including consumer confidence in the UK, Germany and France, as well as the ECB’s consumer expectations survey due Friday.

Over in Asia, it’s a busy week ahead for Japan with key releases including the Tokyo CPI for February and the January industrial production both due on Friday. Our Chief Japan Economist expects core CPI inflation (ex. fresh food) of 1.7% YoY (2.0% in January) and core-core CPI inflation (ex. fresh food and energy) of 2.4% (2.4% in January). For industrial production, he sees a robust 4.5% MoM gain. See more in his full week-ahead here. Elsewhere, inflation will also be in focus in Australia and our economists expect a -0.2% MoM headline print and a 0.24% MoM trimmed mean print.

Other than Nvidia on Wednesday, other tech firms reporting include Salesforce, Intuit, Snowflake and CoreWeave. Amongst US consumer firms, the focus will be on Home Depot, TJX and Lowe’s. Over in Europe, there will be results from HSBC and Allianz in financials as well as other large firms such as Deutsche Telekom, Schneider Electric, Iberdrola and Rolls-Royce.

Recapping last week now, which was full of fast-shifting narratives, moving on from AI worries to fears of geopolitical escalation between the US and Iran to a clearly upbeat tone on Friday after the Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs. With all said and done, the S&P 500 rose +1.07% (+0.69% on Friday). Tech stocks led the recovery, with the NASDAQ (+1.51%, +0.90% on Friday) rising for the first time in six weeks and the Mag-7 (+2.31%, +1.55% Friday) having its best week since November. But it was the equal-weighted S&P (+0.55%, +0.50% Friday) that ended the week at a new record high. Those gains came even as private credit worries resurfaced after Blue Owl Capital (-12.11% over the week) announced it wouldn’t re-open a withdrawal from one of its retail-focused private credit funds, which also weighed on other private equity companies.

The equity gains were even stronger in Europe, as the Stoxx 600 advanced +2.08% over the week (+0.84% on Friday) to a fresh high, with the FTSE 100 (+2.30%, +0.56% on Friday), and CAC 40 (+2.45%, +1.39% on Friday) also breaking new records. In addition to the breather from the AI turmoil and the SCOTUS overrule of IEEPA tariffs, European markets were supported by better-than-expected flash PMIs on Friday. The Euro Area composite PMI (51.9 versus 51.5 exp, 51.3 prev.) rose after three consecutive declines, led by Germany (53.1 vs 52.3 est.), supporting our European analysts’ view that Germany is starting to benefit from its fiscal expansion.

Over in the US, data releases included strong January industrial production (+0.7% m/m vs +0.4% est.) on Wednesday and initial jobless claims (206k vs 225k est.) on Thursday. While Q4 GDP growth came in weaker (+1.4% q/q vs +2.8% q/q expected) on Friday, this was accompanied by a stronger core PCE inflation reading for December (+0.4% m/m vs +0.3% m/m expected) which brought the annual rate of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge back up to +3.0% for the first time in ten months.  With investors dialling back their expectations for Fed rate cuts this year and the SCOTUS ruling raising questions over the US fiscal outlook, the Treasury curve moved higher, with the 2yr yield up +7.0bps (+1.9bps Friday) and the 10yr up +3.6bps to 4.09% (+1.7bps Friday).

European bonds outperformed, with yields on 10yr bunds (-1.7bps, -0.5bps Friday) and OATs (-4.1bps, -1.5bps on Friday) falling. And 10yr gilt yields (-6.3bps, -1.5bps Friday) saw a larger decline, after weaker labour market data on Wednesday raised expectations that the BoE will cut rates in March, with pricing of a March rate cut rising from 71% to 81% over the week.

Finally, oil saw its largest two-day jump since October 2025, as reports circulated that a conflict between the US and Iran could be imminent and Trump escalated his rhetoric against Tehran. Brent crude rose +5.92% over the week (+0.14% on Friday). Metals also rallied, with gold (+1.30%, +2.23% Friday) rising to $5,107/oz.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Disney’s latest cartoon misfire, “Captain Durag,” sparked a firestorm of criticism for allegedly stereotyping black culture—until the black creator stepped forward, promptly defusing the leftist mob’s fury.

The character, a black superhero battling “grime” in Slime City with a durag as his cape and mask, debuted amid Black History Month on Disney Jr.’s “Hey AJ!” and was quickly branded an “abomination” online.

Social media erupted with complaints like one X user’s post: “They made a ‘Captain Durag’ in 2026 what the f–ck Disney.” Another called it “wildly tone deaf.”

The concept of Captain Durag is wildly tone deaf. A black superhero with a durag as both his cape and mask, with a literal snow bunny as his sidekick, that is more of a garbage man than a superhero… pic.twitter.com/Dk1SSH1nC3

— Black Culture Is Pop Culture (@BCisPC) February 18, 2026

The backlash intensified from within the black community, prompting Disney to yank several clips from YouTube without an official statement.

Captain Durag is low-key diabolical on black history month https://t.co/TcJ2cUgKhm

— I know u are but what am i? (@Only1ThxtHobbit) February 17, 2026

But then creator Camille Corbett, a 28-year-old Jamaican-American artist and comedian, defended her work on X, stating “I created the character Durag Man, now known as Captain Durag on the Disney Show, Hey AJ and I’m just finding out people are finding it problematic? I just wanted our culture to have a superhero of its own!”

I created the character Durag Man, now known as Captain Durag on the Disney Show, Hey AJ and I’m just finding out people are finding it problematic? I just wanted our culture to have a superhero of its own! pic.twitter.com/0Klh7soTPG

— Camille Corbett (@TheWittyGirl) February 16, 2026

Corbett told The New York Post that “as a scholar,” she’d “never speak on anything I’ve never experienced,” urging viewers to actually watch the show.

“Hey AJ!” creator Martellus Bennett echoed her on Instagram: “If that offends you, maybe the problem isn’t the durag. Maybe the problem is that you’ve never seen black imagination treated as sacred, heroic and worthy of a cape.”

Bennett described the character as a reflection of black life, pushing back against detractors who saw it as reducing black identity to caricature.

Once Corbett’s identity surfaced, the outrage mostly evaporated—exposing the hypocrisy of critics who slam “stereotypes” until ownership aligns with their identity politics playbook.

We didn’t know if this came from one of us or one of them. Can’t be too cautious

— Balliver Shagnasty (@BeautyfullZo) February 16, 2026

One of them? Who is them?

Also, if you can’t tell the difference between ‘heroic’ characteristics and a stereotype, it might be time to examine why that stereotype exists.

it was either a super black idea or a VERY bad stereotype and the internet couldn’t determine which cause it was too close on the line ?

— kenny (@relientkenny) February 17, 2026

and i couldn’t be happier someone black was behind this ???

— kenny (@relientkenny) February 17, 2026

I think it’s funny. I like this show.

And some of y’all need to get over your fucking selves.

Everything does not require a “we shall overcome” moment. Every Black character is not obligated to carry the weight of history on their back. Sometimes it’s just a joke. Sometimes…

— AceVane (@AcEvAne) February 17, 2026

Some were still intent on being offended.

Why isnt a durag positive?

— Savvy ( ?ˆ?ˆ? ) (@MadamSavvy) February 17, 2026

Ok you’re Jamaican. Please don’t ever try to do a character about black America again. It’s not your culture & you don’t understand us. Please do a Jamaican caricature

— Ms.OriginalBlackAmerican ?? (@OriginalBLKAmer) February 17, 2026

“We” you French and not Spanish today? You created a super hero and named him “duragman “ thus gas to be a God damn joke . You’re not FBA but you wish to use the worst of our culture. I feel like you Are you mocking us? Why don’t you create a character named “Flee Man” a super…

— Queen (@veraJameswalker) February 17, 2026

Looking through the comments, most of the people who praise this nonsense are non black people. That’s a major problem. It’s also not surprising coming from someone who isn’t a Foundational Black American. We unapologetically reject this trash representation of us.

— Lamar ???? FBA B1 (@HTownFBA) February 17, 2026

Let’s face it, there are far worse things to criticise Disney for.

For starters, the company recently abandoned a transgender storyline in a new Pixar show, backing off after internal pushback exposed their agenda to inject gender ideology into kids’ content.

Elon Musk has directly accused Disney CEO Bob Iger of endorsing child sex material, amplifying concerns over the company’s tolerance for predatory themes.

A few years back, Disney announced a new original series for called Pauline in which an 18 year old girl gets impregnated on a one-night stand then catches feelings for the individual responsible, with that individual being SATAN.

Leave it to Disney to call the birth of the Anti-Christ a ‘coming of age’ movie.”

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

When former President Barack Obama announced plans for his presidential center on Chicago’s South Side, he described it as a privately funded investment in the city that would give back to the community that shaped his political career.

And while construction of the brutalist eyesore itself remains privately financed through the Obama Foundation, taxpayers are footing the bill for massive infrastructure costs. 

A review by Fox News found that state and city agencies have not produced a unified accounting of total public expenditures tied to the project’s surrounding infrastructure. While individual agencies have disclosed partial figures, no single office has reconciled those totals or clarified how they overlap.

At the time the project was approved in 2018, public infrastructure costs were projected at roughly $350 million, to be split between the State of Illinois and the City of Chicago. Those estimates covered roadway modifications, utility relocations and related improvements necessary to accommodate the 19.3-acre campus in Jackson Park that nobody asked for. 

In July, the Illinois Department of Transportation said that approximately $229 million in state-managed infrastructure spending had been committed to the project. That total includes about $19 million for preliminary engineering, $24 million for construction engineering and $186 million for construction activities. A department spokesperson described the earlier $174 million figure as a preliminary 2017 estimate.

Now, Chicago’s most recent 2024–2028 Capital Improvement Plan lists more than $206 million allocated to roadway and utility work associated with the project. However, much of that funding is labeled as “state,” and neither state nor city officials have clarified how the figures relate to one another or whether they represent overlapping commitments.

Fox submitted records requests to several agencies, including the Illinois Department of Transportation, Chicago’s Department of Transportation, the city’s Office of Budget and Management, the mayor’s office and Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s administration – yet, not one provided a consolidated, up-to-date accounting of total public infrastructure spending. The Illinois Attorney General’s Public Access Counselor is reviewing whether agencies complied with state transparency laws in responding to the requests.

The Obama Foundation defended the project, reiterating that the center’s construction – whose cost has grown from early projections of roughly $330 million to at least $850 million, according to its 2024 tax filings – is being financed by private donations. In a statement to Fox, foundation spox Emily Bittner said the organization is “investing $850 million in private funding to build the Obama Presidential Center and give back to the community that made the Obamas’ story possible,” adding that the project is intended to catalyze economic opportunity on the South Side. Bittner, of course, didn’t address the infrastructure costs – which have been extensive. 

Cornell Drive, a four-lane roadway along the eastern edge of Jackson Park, was removed and traffic rerouted farther west. Utilities, including water mains and sewer lines, were relocated, and new drainage systems were installed. City and state officials have said the changes were necessary to manage anticipated traffic and visitor demand.

The center occupies 19 acres of public parkland transferred under a 99-year agreement for $10, a decision that prompted legal challenges arguing that the arrangement was not in the public interest. Courts ultimately dismissed those lawsuits.

Though often described as a presidential library, the Chicago complex will not function as a traditional library operated by the National Archives and Records Administration. Former President Obama’s official records will be maintained by the federal government at a facility in Maryland, while the Chicago site will be operated privately by the Obama Foundation.

The foundation also pledged to establish a $470 million endowment intended to protect taxpayers in the event the project encounters financial difficulty. According to previous reporting by Fox News, that fund has received $1 million in deposits.

Who didn’t see this coming?

Blizzard conditions are expected from Delaware into southern New England, and travel will be “extremely treacherous” to “nearly impossible” today, according to the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center.

Expect travel delays along the I-95 corridor, as well as flight cancellations at airports from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast.

Nearly 5,600 flights in, out, or within the US were cancelled at the start of the week, according to flight-tracking website FlightAware.

Travel nightmare for Republic Airways, JetBlue, Delta Air Lines, American Airlines, and United early Monday morning, with the bulk of the cancellations affecting these airlines.

Airports in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, such as John F. Kennedy International Airport, LaGuardia, Boston, Newark, and Philadelphia, experienced the highest number of cancellations and delays.

Here’s a map of the flight misery as of 0630 ET.

The heaviest snowfall, as much as two feet in some locations across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast areas, fell in the overnight hours and will continue into the morning, NWS warned in the most recent update.

Besides the unfolding travel chaos, nearly a quarter million customers are without power this morning because of the blizzard conditions, with a large percentage of the outages concentrated from Delaware to New Jersey.

Over a quarter million people are waking up this morning without power in the Northeast due to blizzard conditions.

Over 15″ of snow has fallen in some locations and 50-60+ MPH gusts have been recorded along the coast.

Snow and strong winds continue today. pic.twitter.com/RKS693uskf

— BAM Weather (@bam_weather) February 23, 2026

Anyone planning to travel into NYC or out of it, well, forget about it, because Mayor Zohran Mamdani declared a state of emergency and closed streets, highways, and bridges to most traffic from late Sunday through Monday afternoon. His collective army of snow shovelers will save the day.

“These are blizzard conditions. New York City has not faced a storm of this scale in the last decade,” Mamdani said. “We have activated additional high-water rescue teams should flooding grow dire.”

How do the blizzard and winter blast compute in the minds of Mamdani’s followers after years of being brainwashed about the global warming crisis?

Meteorologist Ryan Maue looks ahead: 

That monstrous Greenland “polar vortex” cold pool is the “Final Boss” … goes toward Alaska in a week.

Then it heads Southeast into the Lower 48 to crash into the Great Lakes and Northeast by Day 12 (March 6th) … from ECMWF HRES 00z

Coldest of winter in March! pic.twitter.com/xJ9vFXrX1i

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) February 23, 2026

Winter isn’t over. 

As the world watches unchecked immigration fundamentally transform the West, a growing backlash has gained a foothold – and it’s made it to the ballot box.

In Alberta, Canada, Premier Danielle Smith announced a referendum this fall to decide whether the province should limit the number of new international, temporary foreign workers and asylum seekers – as Alberta seeks to take charge of the issue amid a surge of proud Canadians who do not embrace change. 

As Reuters notes; 

The move, announced by Premier Danielle Smith in a televised address on Thursday evening, represents an attempt by Alberta to wrest control of a key issue from the federal government. Immigration policy in Canada is primarily the responsibility of Ottawa, not the provinces.

It is also an attempt by Smith to ward off a simmering Alberta separatism movement, which has threatened Canadian unity as Prime Minister Mark Carney makes efforts to improve relations with western, resource-rich provinces in the face of economic challenges posed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policy.

Giving citizens a say on immigration policy is the government’s way of giving Albertans hope that the Canadian federation can work, Smith told reporters on Friday.

Smith has also blamed Alberta’s financial woes on immigrants – noting that a surge of over 600,000 migrants over the past five years, putting Alberta’s population over 5 million in 2025 – has put a strain on provincial resources.

“Throwing the doors wide open to anyone and everyone across the globe has flooded our classrooms, emergency rooms and social support systems with far too many people, far too quickly,” she said. 

Pissed Swiss Want Population Cap

Meanwhile in Switzerland, a landmark vote is set for June 14 that would cap the nation’s population at 10 million from its current 9.1 million. 

The proposal has been put forth by the country’s largest political coalition, the Swiss People’s Party (SVP), and would require the government to refuse entry to all migrants – including those ‘asylum’ seekers who go home to party when the weather is nice. 

Hitting 10 million residents would also force Switzerland to end its free-movement agreement with the EU. Of note, the EU and Switzerland are integrated through more than 120 bilateral agreements, which grants it access to the EU single market and the free movement of people and trade in goods, CNN reports.

SVP argues that Switzerland is undergoing a ‘population explosion,’ that is straining resources and infrastructure, and inflating rents. 

According to a 2025 poll by Swiss-based polling firm Leewas, the proposal has wide support. 

Authored by Gary Abernathy via The Empowerment Alliance,

Did the far left ever really believe its own rhetoric when it came to climate change? True, when it comes to the positions staked out by any politician on the issues of the day, the age-old question is constantly in the back of everyone’s minds: How much of what they claim to believe is based on heartfelt, core convictions, and how much is due to outside political pressure or geared toward generating contributions?

But nowhere is this question more pertinent than when it comes to politicians and their advocacy for climate change. Why? Because it’s difficult to think of anything that comes close to rivaling the number of government mandates implemented and the amount of taxpayer dollars allocated to reshape society as has happened in the name of climate change. Surely, it wasn’t all based on empty rhetoric and misdirection, was it?

Far-left environmental and climate change groups have significantly increased their political spending over the years. In turn, election after election features liberal politicians hammering away on the alleged damage done by the fossil fuel industry. In 2024 they were at it again, highlighting the latest scary predictions about the worst-case climate change scenarios, and fervently warning of the untold horrors that would happen if Donald Trump and Republicans won in 2024.

Guess what? Once more, it all fell flat with most voters. Trump won the presidency, Republicans kept control of both the House and Senate, and across the nation GOP dominance continued in state government.

There are some Democrats who finally seem to be getting the message that their climate narrative is not resonating. A recent story in Politico noted, “Democrats are increasingly showing they have decided it’s a losing message to tout the ways in which they’d curb fossil fuel production to thwart the most dire effects of climate change.”

Apparently, the realization that Americans are no longer falling for the tired old global warming bogeyman is starting to sink in, at least for some – and a growing number seem ready to modify their rhetoric on the subject.

For instance, the Politico story noted that Sen. Brian Schatz (D) of Hawaii last year removed “climate hawk” from his X biography. And during a fall event connected to New York Climate Week, Schatz, according to Politico, said that “those of us in the climate community who are used to making a more broad argument about where we are in the sweep of history have to get comfortable making a more immediate argument that says the reason prices are going up is a deliberate policy choice of the Republican Party.”

Indeed, changing the subject from doomsday climate scenarios to more economically focused arguments seems to be the path many Democrats have decided to follow, the story noted. Makes you wonder if they ever believed their own rhetoric in the first place. But climate change messaging is not their only problem. Reality is making their argument more difficult all the time.

The harsh winter experienced so far has resulted in Americans clearly witnessing the limits of their preferred energy sources. For example, the last week of January saw social media populated with images of solar panels caked with snow. The real possibility of frozen wind turbines is an annual concern, as described here.

And as the Associated Press reported last winter, “frigid temperatures from Chicago to northern Texas have made life painful for electric-vehicle owners, with reduced driving range and hours of waiting at charging stations.”

Based on apocalyptic warnings about the necessity of changing our ways, billions have been spent to prop up alternatives like wind and solar. But in New England, for instance – where an aggressive push has been made to build large-scale offshore wind projects – the electricity needed to combat the recent frigid air mass was generated mostly by natural gas, oil and nuclear power, as usual.

Left to the tender mercies of wind and solar, New Englanders and most of the U.S. population would have been a cold and stranded lot indeed.

Politicians from the political left tamping down or even forsaking their doomsday climate talk could just be a short-term development while polling shows voters don’t consider climate change a top priority.

Or, it could be a more long-lasting phenomenon. Albert Einstein said, “If you can’t explain it simply, you don’t understand it well enough.” It can be argued that most leftwing politicians never understood it will enough; they just parroted the talking points. Now that they’re realizing voters aren’t listening anymore, they’re downplaying the issue – raising questions about the level of their sincerity in the first place.

The left has been enslaved to their climate change dogma for decades. As such, they’re not ready to give it up entirely. But they are trying to craft a new message – “affordability” – around a tired old issue. Apparently, you can’t teach an old dog new tricks, but you can simplify the one that he already knows. Will voters think Rover is smarter – or still dutifully obedient?

Gary Abernathy is a longtime newspaper editor, reporter and columnist. He was a contributing columnist for the Washington Post from 2017-2023 and a frequent guest analyst across numerous media platforms. He is a contributing opinion columnist for The Empowerment Alliance, which advocates for realistic approaches to energy consumption and environmental conservation.

For years, anyone who questioned whether Washington’s intelligence machinery tilted left was told they were peddling conspiracies. That narrative fell apart on Friday, when CIA Director John Ratcliffe ordered the official retraction or major revision of nineteen intelligence products produced during the Obama years, citing political bias and substandard analytic tradecraft. It’s the first official acknowledgment that America’s most powerful spy agency let politics color its assessments.

“The intelligence products we released to the American people today — produced before my tenure as DCIA — fall short of the high standards of impartiality that CIA must uphold and do not reflect the expertise for which our analysts are renowned,” Director Ratcliffe said in a statement. “There is absolutely no room for bias in our work and when we identify instances where analytic rigor has been compromised, we have a responsibility to correct the record. These actions underscore our commitment to transparency, accountability, and objective intelligence analysis. Our recent successes in Operation ABSOLUTE RESOLVE and Operation MIDNIGHT HAMMER exemplify our dedication to analytic excellence.”

The bombshell came after the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board (PIAB) completed an independent review of hundreds of finished CIA reports spanning the past decade. This period includes Barack Obama’s second term and the Russian collusion hoax.

The PIAB identified nineteen intelligence products that “failed to be independent of political consideration.” Deputy Director Michael Ellis led an internal review that confirmed the findings. Ratcliffe’s response was swift and blunt. “The intelligence products we released to the American people today — produced before my tenure as DCIA — fall short of the high standards of impartiality that CIA must uphold and do not reflect the expertise for which our analysts are renowned,” he said. “There is absolutely no room for bias in our work… These actions underscore our commitment to transparency, accountability, and objective intelligence analysis.”

That’s a rather diplomatic way of saying that Barack Obama’s CIA got caught red-handed playing politics. The agency admitted that at least some of its Obama-era intelligence relied on questionable sourcing, including political activist groups. One report even drew on material from Planned Parenthood, something one official described as “clearly not an appropriate use of CIA resources.” For an organization that prides itself on independence and tradecraft, that revelation is a true humiliation.

CANCELLED: 19 @CIA intelligence products officially retracted over “inappropriate insertion of DEI issues” and failure to meet “objectivity” standards, per senior CIA official.@CIADirector Ratcliffe ordered the removal of 17 intelligence products from CIA databases + 2 reports… pic.twitter.com/UdaHp6S8Gh

— Catherine Herridge (@C__Herridge) February 20, 2026

The implications stretch far beyond nineteen flawed reports. The time frame under review encompasses the same period that produced the now infamous 2017 Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA) — the document commissioned in the last days of the Obama administration and released just before Donald Trump’s inauguration, alleging Russian interference in the 2016 election. 

That assessment relied heavily on the debunked Steele Dossier and cast a dark cloud over President Trump’s first term, giving Democrats cover to claim Trump was an illegitimate president.

If nearly twenty reports from that same era failed to meet analytic standards due to political bias, the question is no longer whether the intelligence community was politicized; it’s how deep the rot went.

However, Democrats clearly aren’t convinced.

Sen. Mark R. Warner (D-Va.), the top Democrat on the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, dismissed the retractions, insisting that “the strength of the Intelligence Community has always depended on its ability to deliver objective, apolitical analysis, grounded in rigorous tradecraft and insulated from political pressure.” He emphasized that such judgments “must be made by intelligence professionals and not subject to politics.”

Warner warned that when politically appointed bodies “appear to be dictating what analysis is acceptable, it risks eroding confidence in the objectivity of our intelligence.” He described the CIA’s action as part of a “broader and deeply troubling pattern in this administration: sidelining career experts, undermining inconvenient intelligence assessments, and allowing political considerations to override professional judgment.”

Senator Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), the chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, however, welcomed the retractions. “The Obama and Biden administrations mixed intelligence analysis and politics far too often,” Cotton said in a post on X. “I commend Director Ratcliffe for correcting the record and ensuring that the CIA’s analysis is free of any political bias.”

He added, “I’ve been sending these kind of reports back to the CIA for years and observing that they contain no intelligence. Our intelligence agencies have too often missed critical national-security developments to waste time on, for instance, how ‘pandemic-related contraceptive shortfalls threaten economic development.’ Honestly.”

In 2025, the share of renewables in U.S. electricity generation has surpassed 25 percent.

Over the course of the past 20 years, their share has continuously risen from just 8.6 percent in 2007.

At the same time, as Statista’s Kathraina Buchholz details in the infographic below, coal in electricity generation fell from a share of 49 percent to just 16.4 percent last year.

You will find more infographics at Statista

While Trump administration’s policies regarding renewable energy and greenhouse gases have yet to show their full effect, experts believe that the sector’s strong growth as well as efficiency and cost improvements will cause it to expand further – albeit slower – despite some government funding losses and the end of emission limits.

In 2022, more electricity was generated from renewable sources in the U.S. for the first time over the course of one year than from coal.

That year, renewable energy sources created more than 900 terawatt-hours of electric power in the country compared to a little over 800 that came from coal.

On a global scale, this change happened last year as renewables outweighed coal electricity generation in the second half of 2025.

Up until 2007, coal accounted for more than 2,000 terawatt hours of electricity in the U.S. before the figure started to declined as regulations around fossil fuels – limits on carbon-intensity and the emissions of toxic elements like mercury – tightened. Electricity generation from natural gas gained pace as a result since it produces somewhat less CO2. To reach the emission goals associated with the net zero age, however, the U.S. would have to continue growing carbon-neutral electricity sources like wind and solar, which have been on a steady upwards climb in the new millennium and are now the second biggest source of electric power in the country.

Looking not only at electricity but energy use as a whole, renewables have a longer way to go in the U.S. and globally.

Here, renewable energy made up only 9 percent in 2023 as energy sources outside of electricity – most notably petroleum in the form of gasoline – are added to the mix.

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

This will one day link with the existing “military Schengen” between the Netherlands, Germany, and Poland, which Belgium and France plan to join, for creating a contiguous zone of free military movement between the Pyrenees and the approach to St. Petersburg.

The Baltic States’ Defense Ministers signed a statement of intent in late January for forming their own “military Schengen”, which refers to the agreement signed two years ago in January 2024 between the Netherlands, Germany, and Poland for expediting the flow of troops and equipment. Belgium and France are also expected to join the original “military Schengen”, whose members aim to slash to 3-5 days the estimated 45 days that it currently takes to send the aforesaid from the Atlantic to the Eastern Flank.

Upon their modernization, both in terms of infrastructure and legal coordination, the two “military Schengens” will form a contiguous zone of free military movement between the Pyrenees and the approach to St. Petersburg. To be sure, this is a work in progress that won’t be completed anytime soon, especially its Baltic portion. Poland only just opened the portion of the “Via Baltica” highway between itself and Lithuania, while the “Rail Baltica” between them and Estonia is even further behind schedule.

Nevertheless, the unmistakable trend is that NATO is optimizing its military logistics, particularly along its Eastern Flank whose members agreed to turbocharge their militarization during mid-December’s inaugural summit. In connection with that, readers also shouldn’t forget that the Baltic States and Poland are building something called the “EU Defense Line”, which combines the first’s “Baltic Defense Line” and the second’s “East Shield” into what’s de facto a new Iron Curtain that’ll include anti-personnel mines.

This Baltic Front of the New Cold War between NATO and Russia relies heavily on Poland, which already has the EU’s largest military and the third-largest in NATO, with plans to expand from 215,000 troops to 300,000 by 2030 then half a million by 2039 (200,000 of whom will be reservists). Both the Via and Rail Baltica megaprojects, which are the regional flagships of the Polish-led “Three Seas Initiative”, will connect Poland to Latvia’s and Estonia’s borders with Russia for rapid force deployment in a crisis.

The involvement of the EU’s largest military in any such NATO-Russian crisis would inevitably drag the rest of those two overlapping blocs in any whatever war might then follow in the worst-case scenario. If the Baltic States hadn’t agreed to form their own “military Schengen”, and if the associated “Baltica” logistical projects weren’t being built, then potential border incidents could be more easily manageable. Instead, they’d likely result in a speedy deployment of Polish troops, thus escalating matters into a crisis.

Moving beyond the military significance of this recent development and into its political significance, Poland is clearly establishing a sphere of influence over the Baltic States, which is actually a return to history.

Casual observers probably aren’t aware, but the Warsaw-led Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth once stretched as far north as southern Estonia and even controlled parts of Latvia for centuries till the Third Partition in 1795. This is part of Poland’s plan to revive its long-lost Great Power status.

The overarching trend is that Poland is preparing to lead Russia’s containment along the Baltic Front, which could also place more pressure upon Kaliningrad (which borders Poland and Lithuania) and Belarus (which borders Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia).

The eventual merger of these two “military Schengens” could embolden Poland to more actively, even aggressively, contain Russia by ensuring that back-up would speedily arrive from the EU hinterland or even the US homeland in the event of a crisis.

Blowback was swift across the Arab world after US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee declared it would be “fine” if Israel took over the entire Middle East, words featured in a Tucker Carlson interview from Jerusalem published days ago.

Governments from Palestine, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Oman issued statements condemning the comments, joined by both the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and the Arab League – a rare moment of quick unity for these countries.

In a joint statement they “express[ed] their strong condemnation and profound concern regarding the statements made by the United States Ambassador to Israel, in which he indicated that it would be acceptable for Israel to exercise control over territories belonging to Arab states, including the occupied West Bank.”

Most notably close American ally Saudi Arabia was among the first to blast Huckabee’s provocative statement and perspective. Saudi Arabia called it “reckless” and “irresponsible”.

Jordan too in a rare moment lashed out at Washington:

“The official spokesperson for the ministry, Ambassador Fuad Al-Majali, rejected these absurd and provocative statements, which constitute a violation of diplomatic norms, an assault on the sovereignty of the countries of the region, and a flagrant breach of international law and the Charter of the United Nations,” the ministry said in a sharply worded response.

Asked whether a passage from the Book of Genesis could be read as granting Israel the right to claim all the land between Egypt’s Nile River and Syria’s Euphrates, Huckabee didn’t hedge. He bluntly and without apology said it would be “fine” if Israel and its military took over the whole Middle East. 

“It would be fine if they took it all,” Huckabee, a former Southern Baptist Minister and previously the governor of Arkansas made clear. This led to a wide ranging conversation and back and forth over whether the modern nation-state of Israel, officially founded as a sovereign government on May 14, 1948, is synonymous with the Israel written about in the Old Testament, stretching back thousands of years.

Here’s how that contentious segment of the interview unfolded, according to a transcript and commentary: 

Huckabee was asked in an interview with US conservative commentator Tucker Carlson about his understanding of a biblical verse suggesting that land including parts of Egypt, Syria and Iraq had been divinely promised to the Jewish people.

Carlson said that according to the Old Testament, the boundaries would be “basically the entire Middle East.”

He continued: “Does Israel have the right to that land?”

“Not sure we’d go that far,” Huckabee said in reply. “It would be a big piece of land.”

Carlson then pressed him: “Does Israel have the right to that land?”

“It would be fine if they took it all,” Huckabee responded, before adding, “I don’t think that’s what we’re talking about here today.”

Carlson asked: “You think it would be fine if the state of Israel took over all of Jordan?”

BREAKING: US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee tells Tucker Carlson that Israel has the Biblical right to take over all of the Middle East.

“It would be fine if they took it all.” pic.twitter.com/BN4fXh03ga

— Tucker Carlson Network (@TCNetwork) February 20, 2026

That’s when Amb. Huckabee must have realized he was entering some hot diplomatic water, which would be sure to outrage Washington’s Arab allies in the region. And indeed condemnation from Middle East leaders has been swift, but it will probably just stop there – though some could pull their support for anti-Iran operations.