Tag: news

A Troubling Number of Young People Expect Social Security To Be a ‘Major Source’ of Retirement Income

The prognosis for Social Security has not improved one bit since Vice President Al Gore promised to put it in a lockbox nearly two decades ago, yet 25 percent of Americans between the ages of 18 and 29 expect to rely on Social Security benefits in retirement. According to Gallup, which released this survey data late last month, 25 percent represents an all-time-high display of confidence for that age bracket since the group began polling on the question:

“This has occurred even as Congress and previous presidents have taken no significant steps to address the looming issue of projected shortfalls in Social Security funds,” Gallup notes. So what phenomenon has convinced 25 percent of young people to believe Social Security will be there when they retire, when realistically the number should be zero?

Gallup’s data tracks pretty neatly with the national conversation about Social Security’s long-term viability. The decline in 25-to-35-year-olds’ confidence in Social Security began in 2005, when President George W. Bush announced Social Security reform would be his top domestic priority. Faith in the program bottomed out during Bush’s promotional tour for personal retirement accounts. By 2007, when young people’s confidence began to climb back up, Bush’s reforms were dead and buried. That confidence continued to climb through the financial crisis, and aside from a brief dip in 2013, has steadily increased since then. (Whatever financial anxiety President Trump has inspired with his erratic behavior, he has promised not to touch Social Security.)

It doesn’t necessarily follow from this that young people are opposed to reforming the program. In May 2009, the Center for American Progress (CAP) released survey data collected from 915 Americans aged 18 to 29. “What is most important about these voters is not their current predilection for Democratic candidates,” the survey authors wrote, “but rather the deeply held progressive beliefs underlying their voting preferences.”

One of those beliefs: that “Social Security should be reformed to allow workers to invest some of their contributions in individual accounts,” a “conservative position” (in CAP’s words) that garnered support from 64 percent of the young people they surveyed.

Now is an excellent time to remind working age Americans that Social Security is not a sufficient primary income for today’s retirees, and likely won’t be for future retirees. While very few Americans of any age are prepared for retirement, millennials are better positioned than most to set up alternate streams of retirement income. As of right now, most of us aren’t saving nearly enough using tax-advantaged savings accounts, but we have time. We should not spend it waiting for decisive action on Social Security, be it Bush-style reform or the opposite.

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Prosperity Cities For Venezuela: New at Reason

Capitalists and capitalism can save Venezuela.

John Stossel writes:

Lovers of socialism didn’t like my column last week. I wrote that Venezuela’s collapse shows the cluelessness of celebrities like Michael Moore, Oliver Stone and Noam Chomsky, who’d praised Venezuela’s leader.

Chomsky called me “an utter coward” for mocking him and said he expected “an abject apology.”

He won’t get one. As Venezuelan-born filmmaker Thor Halvorssen puts it, “Chomsky provided cover for a regime where 11,500 infants died from lack of medical care.”

But assigning blame matters less than what should be done now. After the regime collapses, what comes next?

How about trying capitalism?

That’s what Erick Brimen suggests. Brimen grew up in Venezuela, then moved to America, where he started NeWAY Capital, a firm dedicated to creating what he calls “prosperity cities,” small places that create “the environment for success.”

View this article.

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Coats, Rogers Ruin Democrats’ Narrative: “Never Felt Pressured To Do Anything Illegal”

Not surprisingly, today’s hearing on the review of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act quickly morphed into another Trump witch hunt as soon as the first Democrat on the committee, Senator Mark Warner (D-VA), was allotted time for questions.  Unfortunately, Warner didn’t get the response he had hoped for when he asked Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats and National Security Agency Director Admiral Mike Rogers whether they had ever been pressured by the Trump administration to downplay the Russian investigation.  Here are the headlines:

*NSA’S ROGERS: I’VE NEVER FELT PRESSURED TO DO ANYTHING ILLEGAL

*NSA’S ROGERS: I’VE NEVER BEEN DIRECTED TO DO ANYTHING ILLEGAL

*COATS: I’VE NEVER FELT PRESSURE TO SHAPE ONGOING INVESTIGATION

And here is the full quote from Coats:

“In my time of service in interacting with the President of the United States, or anybody in his administration, I have never been pressured, I have never felt pressure to intervene or interfere in any way with shaping intelligence in a political way or in relationship to an ongoing investigation”

 

Of course, Director Coats left the door open for further speculation by saying that he would not further discuss “confidential” discussions he had with President Trump in a public setting…which we’re certain will be the key takeaway for the MSM.

*COATS SAYS WON’T DISCUSS CONFIDENTIAL TALKS WITH TRUMP PUBLICLY

 

And, to our complete ‘shock’, here is the initial spin from the media…

Reuters:

 

The Hill:

 

Axios:

 

Ironically, CNN had the most unbiased headline:

 

Sure, because this quote from Director Coats is irrelevant for headline purposes:

“In my time of service in interacting with the President of the United States, or anybody in his administration, I have never been pressured, I have never felt pressure to intervene or interfere in any way with shaping intelligence in a political way or in relationship to an ongoing investigation”

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Qatari Riyal Crashes After Saudi Orders Banks To Cut Exposure

The Qatari Riyal plunged to record lows (and forward FX markets indicate the peg is doomed) as Bloomberg reports Saudi Arabia’s central bank has ordered lenders in the country not to increase their exposure to any Qatari clients amid the worst crisis in relations among the Gulf Arab monarchies in decades, according to people familiar with the matter.

The Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency also told banks licensed in the country that they should not process any payments denominated in Qatari riyals, the people said, asking not to be identified because the information is private.

The order to refrain from increasing exposure to Qatar is being applied to include treasury investments, loans, letters of credit and trade-finance facilities, the people said.

Saudi Arabia is among countries including the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Bahrain, that have blocked transport routes with Qatar, accusing the country ofdestabilizing the region through supporting proxies of Shiite Muslim Iran and the Sunni militants of al-Qaeda and Islamic State.

Some banks in Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E. and Bahrain have already begun cutting their exposure to Qatar, other people said on Wednesday.

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Bill Gross: “Market Risk Is Highest Since Before The 2008 Crisis”

Speaking at the Bloomberg Invest summit in New York, Bill Gross (of the recently merged Janus Henderson) who may or may not have been talking his bond book, issued a loud warning to traders saying U.S. markets are at their highest risk levels since before the 2008 financial crisis “because investors are paying a high price for the chances they’re taking.” Well, either that, or simply ignoring the possibility of all ETFs having to sell at once.

“Instead of buying low and selling high, you’re buying high and crossing your fingers,” Gross said Wednesday quoted by Bloomberg.

The rest of Gross’ complaint is familiar to long-suffering traders who have to navigate centrally-planned markets for much of the past decade: he said that central bank policies for low-and negative-interest rates are “artificially driving up asset prices while creating little growth in the real economy and punishing individual savers, banks and insurance companies.”

In other news, Gross’s fund has returned 3.1% YTD according to Bloomberg, outperforming 22% of Bloomberg peers (and underperforming 1-X that number). It has posted a total return of 5.4% since Gross took over management in October 2014 after he was ousted from PIMCO, which while modest is better than 90% of macro funds.

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Sugar; Sour of late, sweet opportunity in play?

bag of sugar for kimble charting solutions post

 

Sugar hasn’t been too sweet for those that have been long it for the past 90-days, as Sugar ETF (SGG) has lost a third of its value. Could Sugar be about to turn sweet for those long the ETF? Check out where the large decline has SGG at this time-

 

sugar SGG weekly kimble charting solutions

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Let’s be clear about this in regards to SGG, it is in a downtrend and nothing that has happened of late that has changed that! We do focus on potential turn around zones and this could be one where a counter trend rally could start. The large decline over the past 90-days has SGG testing a potential support cluster at (1), with one of the potential support lines being the lows of last year.

The large and swift decline has been hard on the bulls and they understandably are hard to find. Below looks at Sentiment on Sugar from Sentimentrader.com

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Are the sour times for Sugar about to end? We find the support test and the percent of investors bullish Sugar, a set up where several opportunities could take place.

The Power of the Pattern looks at these type of opportunities each week in our Sector/Commodity Sentiment extremes newsletter. If this type of pattern analysis would be of interest to you, we would be honored if you were a Premium or Sectors Member, as opportunities like this are discussed each week.

 

Website: KIMBLECHARTINGSOLUTIONS.COM

Blog:  http://ift.tt/2nMNRyT

 

Questions: Email services@kimblechartingsolutions.com or call us toll free 877-721-7217 international 714-941-9381

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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Jeff Sessions Wants to Recruit Local Cops for Border Patrol: New at Reason

Jeff SessionsThanks to the massive legal pushback, perhaps-soon-to-be-ex Attorney General Jeff Sessions was forced to water down his executive order threatening to defund sanctuary cities. But that does not mean that the Justice Department has given up on its efforts to rope in local cops for immigration enforcement purposes. In fact, the Bipartisan Policy Institute’s Theresa Brown reveals that beyond deputizing locals for “interior enforcement,” the administration is trying to get them to assist in border patrol functions, which have to date been an uncontroverted federal responsibility. This in an unprecedented move that may pose the “biggest challenge to federalist principles since the Civil Rights Era,” she writes.

View this article.

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Iran Blames Saudi Arabia For Terrorist Attack, Supporting ISIS; Vows “Revenge”

Iran’s infamous Revolutionary Guards accused Saudi Arabia of being behind the twin terrorist attacks in Tehran, which killed 12 and left at least 39 injured, and have vowed “revenge.”

Earlier in the day, a group of four people in women’s clothes opened fire in the building of the Iranian Parliament, with a subsequent explosion. Another attack involving an explosion took place near the Imam Khomeini shrine. One of the perpetrators of the attack was detained and the rest were executed.

“This terrorist attack happened only a week after the meeting between the U.S. president (Donald Trump) and the (Saudi) backward leaders who support terrorists. The fact that Islamic State has claimed responsibility proves that they were involved in the brutal attack,” said the statement, published by Iranian media.

What is notable is that ISIS already claimed responsibility for the attack, so Iran is explicitly accusing Saudi Arabia of supporting the Islamic State.

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WTI/RBOB Tumble After Biggest Increase In Total Inventories Since April 2015

WTI/RBOB extended their losses after API's surprise gasoline build headlines overnight, and DOE data was even worse with surprise builds in crude, gasoline, and the biggest distillates build in 5 months. Production in the Lower 48 fell for the first time in 17 weeks (but very marginally). The reaction in oil and gasoline prices was abrupt…

So far this week… Genscape reported a 750k draw at Cushing last week…

API reported

  • Crude -4.62mm (-3.25 exp) – 9th weekly draw in a row
  • Cushing -1.56mm (-593k exp) – biggest draw since Oct '16
  • Gasoline +4.08mm (-50k exp) – biggest build since Jan '17
  • Distillates +1.75mm

DOE reported

  • Crude +3.925mm (-3.25 exp) – biggest build in 3 months
  • Cushing -1.444mm (-450k exp) – biggest draw in 4 months
  • Gasoline +3.324mm (-50k exp) – biggest build in 2 months
  • Distillates +4.355mm (+650k exp) – biggest build in 5 months

After last week's biggest crude draw since 2016, expectations continued to point to more draws but API's overnight build in gasoline surprised many. High refining processing rates have eaten into the crude glut, but they risk moving it downstream into products, and DOE confirms that is now backing up the chain once again… with major builds in crude, gasoline, and distillates…

As Bloomberg notes, the U.S. refining industry is working extra hard this year, processing last week hit a record high of 17.51 million barrels a day, more than one million barrels a day above last year's level at this time. After hitting the highest level since 1995 in January, the U.S. has cut gasoline stockpiles 21 percent to 24.7 days.

However, 4-week average gasoline demand fell 23,000 barrels a day – not a big drop, but going in the wrong direction for the start of the summer driving season. More importantly, perhaps, the weekly number was down 505,000 barrels a day.

That crude stockbuild goes against all expectations. If you add in refined products and the SPR, total U.S. inventories were up by a massive 13.815 million barrels week on week. That's the biggest increase in total inventories since April 2015. Still absolutely no sign of rebalancing in the U.S.

Crude Production in the Lower 48 fell for the first time in 17 weeks after reaching its highest since August 2015. The last week saw production drop from 8.835m b/d to  8.815m b/d.

 

Ahead of the DOE report, reports hit that Libya's largest oilfield was said to be shutdown due to a workers' protest (there was no reaction), but the overnight tumble on the surprise gasoline build was evident. Then when the shocking DOE data hit, prices tumbled…

 

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This ‘Free-Range Mom’ Is Running for Local Office

You know the old saying: When life hands you a Child Protective Services investigation (or two), make lemonade. That’s what Danielle Meitiv of Silver Spring, Maryland, is doing. The famously Free-Range mom is running for the position of member at large on the Montgomery County Council, she told us, “to make this county the best place it could possibly be for kids.” The election is next year.

Meitiv rose to national prominence in 2014 when her kids, age 10 and 6 at the time, were picked up by cops for walking home from a park together without an accompanying adult. The cops came to the Meitivs’ home, Child Protective Services proceeded to investigate, and eventually the parents were found guilty of “unsubstantiated neglect,” a charge so absurd that the general public took note. When the kids were scooped up yet again by the cops for walking home alone a few months later, and this time taken to an emergency center as if they were runaways or abandoned children, the Meitiv name became synonymous with zealous government overreach into everyday parenting decisions.

Since then, Meitiv says, she has been fighting for the right of parents to raise their kids as they see fit. “Absent actual abuse, the parent has the right to decide what’s best for their children,” she insists.

What’s more, she said, allowing kids some independence is good for everyone. After all, children “are the future workers, voters, business builders. [They] need to understand the world around them, and analyze it with courage, not fear.”

When adults are around, kids remain simply kids. They know that someone bigger and more powerful is there to take over if they need it (or even if they don’t). But when adults are absent, the kids become the adults, making decisions, working out disputes, coming up with new ideas. They rise to the occasion. Meitiv wants to make sure kids have this opportunity when their parents think they’re ready for it, without anyone fearing arrest. And she has a record of accomplishment on this front. Her family’s recent ordeal prompted a change in the Maryland laws as to what can prompt a child welfare investigation. Simply granting kids some freedom is no longer enough “reason” to suspect the parents of abuse or neglect.

A community where kids are free to have an old-fashioned childhood is a healthy community, where neighbors get to know each other. Rebuilding that trust, says Meitiv, “is better than locking our kids up.”

In the end, she says, trust is what her campaign is all about: Trusting kids, trusting the community, and trusting parents. “I am not running on a ‘How to Raise Your Kids’ platform,” Meitiv says, “but I think we can all agree it’s not a role for police and it’s not a role for child welfare.”

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