Where The September Jobs Were: Truck Drivers, Bureaucrats, Salesmen And Temps

As part of our monthly NFP-day tradition, we break down the monthly job gains (and losses) by industry. So here they are: in September the biggest job gaining sectors, accounting for 86K jobs or 58% of the total 148K jobs added, were the following  four industries:

  • Transportation and Warehousing: + 23K
  • Government: +22K
  • Retail Trade: +21K
  • Temp Help: +20K

In short: nearly two thirds of all jobs created in September (according to the BLS’ increasingly more flawed data so these numbers are likely completely made up) were truck drivers, bureaucrats, salespeople and temps.

What about “real” jobs: well, Financial Activities were down 2K, Manufacturing were up 2K, Information (those very critical programmers so instrumental in the glitchless roll out of Obamacare): +4K, and Professional and Business Services (ex temps): +12K.

Quality all the way.

Source: BLS



    



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If You Believe In The Recovery, Do Not Look At This Chart

Just a few moar years of unlimited open-ended quantitative money printing and we are sure this will all be fixed…

 

 

via @Not_Jim_Cramer

 

Of course it does beg the question Rick Santelli asked

"[What the Fed minutes said] is, listen, we have to wait for bigger confirmation that the economy is doing better; and for that, we're going to look at the employment side. [At the same time] we have the fewest people working that can work in 30 years, and all-time-record-high profits for corporations. Now, does that strategy sound rational to you?" It seems, now that Bernanke has seemingly promised that it will really never end, that Santelli's question will become increasingly critical in this country.

 

 

How does this end?


    



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US Somehow Adds 691K Full-Time Jobs In September

The last time we caught the BLS systematically making up data, specifically as pertains to the NFP-parallel JOLTS survey, the result was truly epic: a one time adjustment in which the Bureau did everything it could to, in one month, plug the gap we had highlighted, resulting in the most skewed (and hilarious) data series we had every observed.

This time around, the BLS has once again outdone itself, focusing however not on the JOLTS survey, but on the one aspect of the labor force that has dominated public attention: the impact of Obamacare on the distribution of jobs by full-time vs part-time. As is well-known, and as we have been reporting for the past three or so years but becoming particularly acute in the last 3 months, virtually all job gains reported by the BLS had come in the ranks of the part-time workers, and to the detriment of full-time jobs. This resulted in substantial criticism of Obama, and the impact Obamacare has on jobs.

Well, some time in the past month and a half, the Obama administration called up the BLS and told them to remedy this.

Sure enough, while the September Establishment Survey was a disappointing +148K, far below expectations, it was the Household Survey where the fun was.On the top line, the gain in jobs was comparable to the Establishment number: a timid 133K.

However, looking at the breakdown between Full-Time and Part-Time jobs reveals something simply hilarious. The chart below summarizes it.

In brief: according to the BLS’ magic calculations, in one month, the month during which the so-called uncertainly surrounding the government shutdown hit its peak (if one listens to CEO apologists), the US work force saw the rotation of some 594K part-time workers into a whopping 691K full-time jobs, in addition to adding over 100K net new jobs in the month.

And like that, the mouths of all those who criticize Obamacare have been shit for good, all courtesy of Arima X 12 and a few goalseeked tweaks in Excel.


    



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Dismal Jobs Reports Sends S&P To New All-Time High

The 3rd miss in a row for private payrolls was enough to spark an engorgement of all things Federal-Reserve-liquidity related. Gold is jumping, Bond yields are tumbling, the USD is crumbling, and the S&P 500 is soaring to new all-time highs… sure, why not…

 

 

 

But but but the unemployment rate is at 5 year lows…. oh, we forgot, its irrelevant now that its “improving”… just as we always said it was when it was held up by any and all as ‘proof’ of the recovery


    



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Dismal Jobs Reports Sends S&P To New All-Time High

The 3rd miss in a row for private payrolls was enough to spark an engorgement of all things Federal-Reserve-liquidity related. Gold is jumping, Bond yields are tumbling, the USD is crumbling, and the S&P 500 is soaring to new all-time highs… sure, why not…

 

 

 

But but but the unemployment rate is at 5 year lows…. oh, we forgot, its irrelevant now that its “improving”… just as we always said it was when it was held up by any and all as ‘proof’ of the recovery


    



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September Nonfarm Payrolls Miss 148K vs Exp. 180K; Unemployment Rate Drops to 7.2%

September jobs are a disappointment at 148K vs expectations of 180K and private jobs only 126K well below the 180K expected, but August was revised higher this time, from 169K to 193K. Net for the two months, largely a wash.

From the Household Survey:

The unemployment rate, at 7.2 percent, changed little in September but has declined by 0.4 percentage point since June. The number of unemployed persons, at 11.3 million, was also little changed over the month; however, unemployment has decreased by 522,000 since June.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (7.1 percent), adult women (6.2 percent), teenagers (21.4 percent), whites (6.3 percent), blacks (12.9 percent), and Hispanics (9.0 percent) showed little or no change in September. The jobless rate for Asians was 5.3 percent (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier. 

In September, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 4.1 million. These individuals accounted for 36.9 percent of the unemployed. The number of long-term unemployed has declined by 725,000 over the past year.

Both the civilian labor force participation rate, at 63.2 percent, and the employment-population ratio at 58.6 percent, were unchanged in September. Over the year, the labor force participation rate has declined by 0.4 percentage point, while the employment- population ratio has changed little.

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was unchanged at 7.9 million in September. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.

And the establishment:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 148,000 in September, with gains in construction, wholesale trade, and transportation and warehousing. Over the prior 12 months, employment growth averaged 185,000 per month.

 

Employment in construction rose by 20,000 in September, after showing little change over the prior 6 months.

The Labor Force Participation Rate was flat at 63.2%: the lowest in over 30 years.

 

3rd monthly miss in a row for Private Payrolls…

 

as the unemployment rate drops to Nover 2008 lows…


    



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Complete Non-Farm Payrolls Report Preview

Many thought Goldman was joking when, in its preview of today’s delayed September NFP, it essentially said the number doesn’t matter – it will be bullish no matter what (a +1 million print will be bearish as it means 2 million have to reenter the workforce now that the labor participation rate is an issue, as opposed to 2010 when it was only mentioned on Zero Hedge; a -1 million print will mean taper in 2099; both numbers will be spun as better than in reality due to the government shutdown that did not even take place in the month of September) as it means more Fed, more of the time. Sadly, in central-planning that pretty much covers it up. For everyone wanting some more info on what to expect in under half an hour, here is the full breakdown from RanSquawk.

September US Non-Farm Payrolls

  • US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) M/M Exp. 180k, Low 100k, High 256k (Prev. 169k, Jul 104k)
  • US Unemployment Rate (Sep) M/M Exp. 7.3%, Low 7.1%, High 7.4% (Prev. 7.3%, Jul 7.4%)

“Safety in Numbers” estimates by bank:

  • Deutsche Bank 170k
  • Bank of America 170k
  • HSBC 171k
  • Citigroup 180k
  • UBS 195k
  • JP Morgan 195k
  • Barclays 200k
  • Goldman Sachs 200k

The September nonfarm payrolls report will be released today, eleven days later than originally scheduled, after a bipartisan agreement was reached to reopen the US government.

The release, as has become the norm, will be used to gauge when the Fed will begin to reduce its QE3 programme. However, amid the fiscal dysfunction on Capitol Hill, several FOMC members noted that delays to key macroeconomic data due to the shutdown may prevent the Fed from making informed changes to its policy measures. Furthermore, a very similar budgetary stand-off in the US may well be seen in the new year, with last week’s deal being just a temporary measure to fund the government until mid-January. As a result, many analysts have pushed back their forecasts for a reduction in Fed bond-buying.

Last month, 169k jobs were added, lower than the expected 180k and the previous month was given a large downward revision. The unemployment rate declined to 7.3% from 7.4% in July; however, this was attributed to a decline in the labour force participation rate.

The September ADP employment reading, which is calculated using a very similar methodology to nonfarm payrolls, came in at 166k, missing the median expectation of 180k, with the previous reading also seeing a significant downward revision. As has been seen in many of this year’s NFP readings, the ADP release suggested that US labour market activity is continuing to soften. US government austerity measures prior to the shutdown, as well as the recent rise in rates, appear to have dampened the recovery. It may also have been hampered by investor concern over the approaching budgetary gridlock that had been on the horizon for many months.

Market Reaction

As mentioned, many participants believe the Fed will be reluctant to reduce QE given the uncertainty over both the economic effects of the shutdown and the outcome when the temporary deal lapses. If that is the case, a reasonably strong reading could boost sentiment, lifting stocks and weighing on bonds in a knee-jerk reaction. But with stocks at near-all-time highs, there may be little scope for further upside. Conversely, a very strong number, significantly above the majority of expectations, has the potential to induce forecasts for a QE reduction. If so, considerable downside risks would be posed to fixed income. However, a very large beat on expectations would be required for the US 10-year yield to reach the 2.75% level seen during last week’s Washington turmoil.


    



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Plunging Greek Wages Crater Q2 Disposable Income By 9.3%, Government Borrowing Rises To Record

Can someone please explain this whole “Grecovery” concept to use because neither we, nor apparently the people of Greece which are not only unemployed and broke, but have negative savings, and collapsing wages, social benefits and disposable income, seem able to understand it.

Here is the latest absolutely disastrous news from Elstat, reporting on Q2 Greek Non-financial sector accounts

During the second quarter of 2013, disposable income of the households and non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH) sector (S.1M) decreased by 9.3% in comparison with the same quarter of the previous year, from 33.2 billion euro to 30.1 billion euro. This was mainly on account of a decrease of 13.9% in the compensation of employees and a decrease of 12.4% in social benefits received by households.

This was the biggest drop in household disposable income since Q3 2012. Is this part of the Grecovery?

Next, the savings rate of the households and NPISH sector, defined as gross savings divided by gross disposable income, was -8.7% in the second quarter of 2013, compared with -6.7% in the second quarter of 2012.

So, households are broke, unemployed, and have negative savings. But at least the stock market is up. Is this, too, part of the Grecovery?

Finally, remember that myth about the suddenly accountable and responsible Greek government, which has a primary surplus, and is living within its means? Then please explain the following:

Net borrowing of general government (S.13) during the second quarter of 2013 amounted to 14.0 billion euro, compared with 3.8 billion euro in the second quarter of 2012. The increase in the General Government deficit in the second quarter of 2013 is due to capital transfers in the context of the program of state aid to specific banks. Net borrowing of general government excluding the impact of the support to financial institutions in the second quarter 2012 amounted to 2.6 billion euro.

This was the biggest quarterly government borrowqing in well… ever. Is this the final component of the Grecovery?

And some other independent data poinst:

  • Greek 2Q Govt Deficit Widens to 16.6% of GDP From 11.0% in 1Q – obviously, this spells Grecovery
  • Greek Debt Swells to 169.1% of GDP in 2Q, Nearing Pre-PSI Levels – this definitely must be the Grecovery, right?

The good news for all the broke, unemployment, incomeless Greeks: you still have your precious Euro.

Source: Elstat


    



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This Lack Of Syrian Aggression Will Not Stand, Man: Saudi's Bandar Bin Sultan Furious At US

That Saudi Arabia has been furious at the US for refusing to be the monarchy’s puppet Globocop, and in the last minute declining to bomb Syria following Putin’s gambit in which World War III seemed a distinctly possible consequence of John Kerry’s hamheaded “YouTube-substantiated” false flag campaign, is no secret. However, while the US has largely forgotten this latest foreign policy debacle and the humiliation it brought upon the Department of State, Saudi Arabia is nowhere close to forgetting. Or forgiving. And this time the anger comes from the one man who truly matters, and whom we dubbed several months ago as the puppetmaster behind the Syrian campaign: the man in charge of Saudi intelligence, Prince Bandar Bin Sultan.

The WSJ reports overnight, that Prince Bandar told European diplomats this weekend that he plans to scale back cooperating with the U.S. to arm and train Syrian rebels in protest of Washington’s policy in the region, participants in the meeting said.  This demonstratively framed announcement follows Saudi Arabia’s surprise decision on Friday to renounce a seat on the United Nations Security Council. “The Saudi government, after preparing and campaigning for the seat for a year, cited what it said was the council’s ineffectiveness in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian and Syrian conflicts.”

In short: Bin Sultan has decided to take the stage and make it quite clear that this lack of aggression by the US will not stand. The question is: what can or will he do?

Diplomats here said Prince Bandar, who is leading the kingdom’s efforts to fund, train and arm rebels fighting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, invited a Western diplomat to the Saudi Red Sea city of Jeddah over the weekend to voice Riyadh’s frustration with the Obama administration and its regional policies, including the decision not to bomb Syria in response to its alleged use of chemical weapons in August.

 

“This was a message for the U.S., not the U.N.,” Prince Bandar was quoted by diplomats as specifying of Saudi Arabia’s decision to walk away from the Security Council membership.

U.S. officials said they interpreted Prince Bandar’s message to the Western diplomat as an expression of discontent designed to push the U.S. in a different direction. “Obviously he wants us to do more,” said a senior U.S. official.

Obviously. What is odd is that the “proxy” intelligence chief appears to have usurped foreign policy decision-making from the Saudi king himself.

Top decisions in Saudi Arabia come from the king, Abdullah bin Abdulaziz al Saud, and it isn’t known if Prince Bandar’s reported remarks reflected a decision by the monarch, or an effort by Prince Bandar to influence the king. However, the diplomats said, Prince Bandar told them he intends to roll back a partnership with the U.S. in which the Central Intelligence Agency and other nations’ security bodies have covertly helped train Syrian rebels to fight Mr. Assad, Prince Bandar said, according to the diplomats. Saudi Arabia would work with other allies instead in that effort, including Jordan and France, the prince was quoted as saying.

If there was any confusion that the entire Syrian campaign was purely at the behest of the Qataris and the Saudis as we first suggested in May, it can finally be put to bed.

The monarchy was particularly angered by Mr. Obama’s decision to scrap plans to bomb Syria in response to the alleged chemical-weapons attack in August and, more recently, tentative overtures between Mr. Obama and Iran’s new president.

 

Diplomats and officials familiar with events recounted two previously undisclosed episodes during the buildup to the aborted Western strike on Syria that allegedly further unsettled the Saudi-U.S. relationship.

 

In the run-up to the expected U.S. strikes, Saudi leaders asked for detailed U.S. plans for posting Navy ships to guard the Saudi oil center, the Eastern Province, during any strike on Syria, an official familiar with that discussion said. The Saudis were surprised when the Americans told them U.S. ships wouldn’t be able to fully protect the oil region, the official said.

 

Disappointed, the Saudis told the U.S. that they were open to alternatives to their long-standing defense partnership, emphasizing that they would look for good weapons at good prices, whatever the source, the official said.

 

In the second episode, one Western diplomat described Saudi Arabia as eager to be a military partner in what was to have been the U.S.-led military strikes on Syria. As part of that, the Saudis asked to be given the list of military targets for the proposed strikes. The Saudis indicated they never got the information, the diplomat said.

“The Saudis are very upset. They don’t know where the Americans want to go,” said a senior European diplomat not in Riyadh.

To be sure, not just Prccne Bandar is angry – everyone else in Saudi is now fuming at Obama too:

In Washington in recent days, Saudi officials have privately complained to U.S. lawmakers that they increasingly feel cut out of U.S. decision-making on Syria and Iran. A senior American official described the king as “angry.”

 

Another senior U.S. official added: “Our interests increasingly don’t align.”

Fair enough: but what can it do? It is no secret, that as the primary hub of the petrodollar system which is instrumental to keeping the dollar’s reserve status, Saudi has no choice but to cooperate with the US, or else risk even further deterioration of the USD reserve status. A development which would certainly please China… and Russia, both of which are actively engaging in Plan B preparations for the day when the USD is merely the latest dethroned reserve currency on the scrap heap of all such formerly world-dominant currencies.

Perhaps the only party that Saudi can lash out at, since it certainly fears escalating its animosity with the US even more, is Russia. And perhaps it did yesterday, when as we reported, a suicide-bombing terrorist incident captured on a dashcam killed many people, and was supposedly organized by an Islamist extremist – of the kind that Bandar told Putin several months ago are controlled and funded by Saudi intelligence chief.

If true, and if Saudi wants to project its impotence vis-a-vis the US by attacking Russia, this will likely culminate with the Sochi winter Olympics. So will Prince Bandar be crazy enough to take on none other than the former KGB chief? And more importantly, just like in the US Syrian fiasco, what happens when and if Putin retaliates against the true power that holds the USD in place?


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/fRdCtOlbBdc/story01.htm Tyler Durden

This Lack Of Syrian Aggression Will Not Stand, Man: Saudi’s Bandar Bin Sultan Furious At US

That Saudi Arabia has been furious at the US for refusing to be the monarchy’s puppet Globocop, and in the last minute declining to bomb Syria following Putin’s gambit in which World War III seemed a distinctly possible consequence of John Kerry’s hamheaded “YouTube-substantiated” false flag campaign, is no secret. However, while the US has largely forgotten this latest foreign policy debacle and the humiliation it brought upon the Department of State, Saudi Arabia is nowhere close to forgetting. Or forgiving. And this time the anger comes from the one man who truly matters, and whom we dubbed several months ago as the puppetmaster behind the Syrian campaign: the man in charge of Saudi intelligence, Prince Bandar Bin Sultan.

The WSJ reports overnight, that Prince Bandar told European diplomats this weekend that he plans to scale back cooperating with the U.S. to arm and train Syrian rebels in protest of Washington’s policy in the region, participants in the meeting said.  This demonstratively framed announcement follows Saudi Arabia’s surprise decision on Friday to renounce a seat on the United Nations Security Council. “The Saudi government, after preparing and campaigning for the seat for a year, cited what it said was the council’s ineffectiveness in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian and Syrian conflicts.”

In short: Bin Sultan has decided to take the stage and make it quite clear that this lack of aggression by the US will not stand. The question is: what can or will he do?

Diplomats here said Prince Bandar, who is leading the kingdom’s efforts to fund, train and arm rebels fighting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, invited a Western diplomat to the Saudi Red Sea city of Jeddah over the weekend to voice Riyadh’s frustration with the Obama administration and its regional policies, including the decision not to bomb Syria in response to its alleged use of chemical weapons in August.

 

“This was a message for the U.S., not the U.N.,” Prince Bandar was quoted by diplomats as specifying of Saudi Arabia’s decision to walk away from the Security Council membership.

U.S. officials said they interpreted Prince Bandar’s message to the Western diplomat as an expression of discontent designed to push the U.S. in a different direction. “Obviously he wants us to do more,” said a senior U.S. official.

Obviously. What is odd is that the “proxy” intelligence chief appears to have usurped foreign policy decision-making from the Saudi king himself.

Top decisions in Saudi Arabia come from the king, Abdullah bin Abdulaziz al Saud, and it isn’t known if Prince Bandar’s reported remarks reflected a decision by the monarch, or an effort by Prince Bandar to influence the king. However, the diplomats said, Prince Bandar told them he intends to roll back a partnership with the U.S. in which the Central Intelligence Agency and other nations’ security bodies have covertly helped train Syrian rebels to fight Mr. Assad, Prince Bandar said, according to the diplomats. Saudi Arabia would work with other allies instead in that effort, including Jordan and France, the prince was quoted as saying.

If there was any confusion that the entire Syrian campaign was purely at the behest of the Qataris and the Saudis as we first suggested in May, it can finally be put to bed.

The monarchy was particularly angered by Mr. Obama’s decision to scrap plans to bomb Syria in response to the alleged chemical-weapons attack in August and, more recently, tentative overtures between Mr. Obama and Iran’s new president.

 

Diplomats and officials familiar with events recounted two previously undisclosed episodes during the buildup to the aborted Western strike on Syria that allegedly further unsettled the Saudi-U.S. relationship.

 

In the run-up to the expected U.S. strikes, Saudi leaders asked for detailed U.S. plans for posting Navy ships to guard the Saudi oil center, the Eastern Province, during any strike on Syria, an official familiar with that discussion said. The Saudis were surprised when the Americans told them U.S. ships wouldn’t be able to fully protect the oil region, the official said.

 

Disappointed, the Saudis told the U.S. that they were open to alternatives to their long-standing defense partnership, emphasizing that they would look for good weapons at good prices, whatever the source, the official said.

 

In the second episode, one Western diplomat described Saudi Arabia as eager to be a military partner in what was to have been the U.S.-led military strikes on Syria. As part of that, the Saudis asked to be given the list of military targets for the proposed strikes. The Saudis indicated they never got the information, the diplomat said.

“The Saudis are very upset. They don’t know where the Americans want to go,” said a senior European diplomat not in Riyadh.

To be sure, not just Prccne Bandar is angry – everyone else in Saudi is now fuming at Obama too:

In Washington in recent days, Saudi officials have privately complained to U.S. lawmakers that they increasingly feel cut out of U.S. decision-making on Syria and Iran. A senior American official described the king as “angry.”

 

Another senior U.S. official added: “Our interests increasingly don’t align.”

Fair enough: but what can it do? It is no secret, that as the primary hub of the petrodollar system which is instrumental to keeping the dollar’s reserve status, Saudi has no choice but to cooperate with the US, or else risk even further deterioration of the USD reserve status. A development which would certainly please China… and Russia, both of which are actively engaging in Plan B preparations for the day when the USD is merely the latest dethroned reserve currency on the scrap heap of all such formerly world-dominant currencies.

Perhaps the only party that Saudi can lash out at, since it certainly fears escalating its animosity with the US even more, is Russia. And perhaps it did yesterday, when as we reported, a suicide-bombing terrorist incident captured on a dashcam killed many people, and was supposedly organized by an Islamist extremist – of the kind that Bandar told Putin several months ago are controlled and funded by Saudi intelligence chief.

If true, and if Saudi wants to project its impotence vis-a-vis the US by attacking Russia, this will likely culminate with the Sochi winter Olympics. So will Prince Bandar be crazy enough to take on none other than the former KGB chief? And more importantly, just like in the US Syrian fiasco, what happens when and if Putin retaliates against the true power that holds the USD in place?


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/fRdCtOlbBdc/story01.htm Tyler Durden