Tag: news

Despite coming second in the results, trailing Macron by just over 2% in the final vote, there were several places in France where Marine Le Pen didn’t manage to get a single vote: 56 places in fact.

The map below, courtesy of TheLocal.fr, shows a zoomed out version of the map (so not all 56 points may be fully visible) displaying the villages, all under 100 inhabitants strong, where not a single box was ticked on the ballot paper for Le Pen. It shows two clear clusters of non-Le Pen voting villages, one large group in the south-west, and another tightly packed group of FN-shunners between Grenoble and Marseille. The rest are spread across the east and north, creating a crescent of Le Pen no-go zones.

To see the full list on France Info click here.

So who was their preferred candidate instead?

The difference between the clusters is that while the villages in the south and Corsica largely picked Jean-Luc Mélenchon or Emmanuel Macron over Le Pen, many of the villages to the north and east chose rival right-wing candidate François Fillon.

All five of the villages in the north of France chose Fillon, the largest being Saint-Valery, a commune of 58 voters on the Somme bay, and the smallest being Canteleux, a hamlet of just 13 voters.

One of the smallest villages in the southern clusters, Cabous in south-west France, only had 16 people signed up to vote, of which the biggest group voted for Jean-Luc Mélenchon. One of the biggest villages was Samaran, with 72 voters situated between Toulouse and Pau, which shunned Le Pen in favour of Macron.

None of the villages were found in Le Pen’s stronghold of the Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur (PACA) region, where her father Jean-Marie Le Pen built up support in the 1970’s. But there were some Le Pen voter free villages in France’s far north, another National Front key area. Below is a map of how all the communes in France voted.

via http://ift.tt/2pWUX5Q Tyler Durden

If everything's so awesome, why are Treasuries so bid?

Heavy demand for Treasuries this morning after two notable data disappointments…

Banks are ripping higher (though some context below may help), even as bond yields roll over…

And despite the collapse in VIX, stocks are flat since the open…

via http://ift.tt/2q6Z5zc Tyler Durden

Via Disobedient Media

An investigation has revealed that terror groups operating out of Syria have taken to Reddit, utilizing the online messageboard as a forum for individuals who support Islamic terror groups operating inside Syria. Disobedient Media has determined that the subreddit r/SyrianRebels lists at least one moderator who appears to support extremist-aligned groups in Syria and has recently announced that they will host an “Ask Me Anything” session with a senior Al-Qaeda militant in charge of media outreach for the terror group. Reddit has refused to remove the subreddit, claiming that it does not violate their site’s rules.

I. Subreddit Devoted To “Syrian Rebels” Supports Extremists, Syrian White Helmets

The front page of r/SyrianRebels sports a number of posts that are anti-Assad and support the contention that the Syrian government was behind the April 4th chemical weapons attack in Khan Shaykhun, Syria. They also feature several articles from the Atlantic Council. Disobedient Media has previously noted that the Atlantic Council is a think tank which has in the past taken money from special interests in return for pushing specific policy objectives that benefit their donors.

Multiple members of the subreddit’s moderating team appear to be either supporters or members of groups within Syria who have ties to Islamic extremist groups fighting in the country’s civil war. Several moderators espouse support for the Syrian White Helmets, who Disobedient Media has tied to war crimes committed by rebel groups in Aleppo and other areas of Syria. Another supports the Al Bunyan al Marsous Operations Room, a coordinated organization of rebels in Daraa, Syria. Observers have noted that members of the Al Bunyan al Marsous Operations Room include Hay’at Tahrir al Sham, who have been described by BBC News as being Al-Qaeda’s latest incarnation in Syria. The subreddit has also linked to their own dedicated Telegram channel. Telegram has been reported to be a favorite medium of communication for jihadists due to its encrypted messaging system and has been criticized for hampering anti-terror units in their efforts to combat extremists.

On April 18th, 2017, the moderating team made an announcement that they planned to host an “Ask Me Anything” (AMA) session on April 29th with Shaykh Abu Sulayman, the former media relations manager for Jabhat Fateh Al-Sham, who U.S. intelligence officials say is merely another proxy for Al-Qaeda fighting in Syria. Shaykh Abu Sulayman, real name Mostafa Muhammed, has been described as the most senior Australian member of Al-Qaeda by the press and is labeled a terrorist by the United States Department of the Treasury. The moderators claimed that their reason for giving an Al-Qaeda propagandist a forum to spread his message was their desire to feature an “English speaker in rebel-held Syria who has first-hand knowledge of events there.” There was no explanation for why they chose an English speaking member of Al-Qaeda, or how they had been able to coordinate and schedule a question and answer session with him.

II. Reddit Administrators Refused To Remove The Offending Subreddit

When Reddit’s administration team was contacted about the content and nature of r/SyrianRebels, they refused to take action against the group, despite their clear promotion of Al-Qaeda affiliated groups and operatives. The administrators’ response claimed that they had checked the subreddit and decided it did not violate Reddit’s site rules. The administration team took this position despite the forum’s decision to allow an Al-Qaeda member to speak there. Their decision comes after both members of the press and U.S. politicians have clearly stated that there are no longer any “moderate rebel” groups fighting the government in Syria. The Guardian has further noted that even supposedly “non-aligned” groups of rebels responsible for retaking territory held by ISIS in Syria are little more than bands of mercenaries who have fought alongside jihadist groups in the past and will continue to in the future if the price is right.

Many of the members of r/SyrianRebels promote these very groups, despite the clear signs that they are affiliated with jihadist organizations responsible not just for acts of terror and war crimes in Syria and the Middle East, but Europe and the United States as well. By failing to curtail these groups and deny them a forum on their website, Reddit’s corporate team is in effect allowing terrorism to thrive and promote itself on their platform.

This would not be the first time that terror groups have tried to use the platform for staging operations. In March 2015, Mossad officials told the New York Post that they had found users on Reddit who were using hexadecimal characters and prime numbers to encode plans for terror attacks. Over the past few months, Reddit has also been forced to close down subreddits that promoted child abuse and so called “alt-right” political views after receiving complaints from various factions of the site’s userbase.

via http://ift.tt/2pXLlKM William Craddick

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

There is much debate about where the U.S. economy is ultimately heading, but what everybody should be able to agree on is that economic conditions are significantly worse this year than they were last year.  It is being projected that U.S. economic growth for the first quarter will be close to zero, thousands of retail stores are closing, factory output is falling, and restaurants and automakers have both fallen on very hard times.  As economic activity has slowed down, commercial and consumer bankruptcies are both rising at rates that we have not seen since the last financial crisis.  Everywhere you look there are echoes of 2008, and yet most people still seem to be in denial about what is happening. 

The following are 11 facts that prove that the U.S. economy in 2017 is in far worse shape than it was in 2016…

#1 It is being projected that there will be more than 8,000 retail store closings in the United States in 2017, and that will far surpass the former peak of 6,163 store closings that we witnessed in 2008.

#2 The number of retailers that have filed for bankruptcy so far in 2017 has already surpassed the total for the entire year of 2016.

#3 So far in 2017, an astounding 49 million square feet of retail space has closed down in the United States.  At this pace, approximately 147 million square feet will be shut down by the end of the year, and that would absolutely shatter the all-time record of 115 million square feet that was shut down in 2001.

#4 The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now model is projecting that U.S. economic growth for the first quarter of 2017 will come in at just 0.5 percent.  If that pace continues for the rest of the year, it will be the worst year for U.S. economic growth since the last recession.

#5 Restaurants are experiencing their toughest stretch since the last recession, and in March things continued to get even worse…

Foot traffic at chain restaurants in March dropped 3.4% from a year ago. Menu prices couldn’t be increased enough to make up for it, and same-store sales fell 1.1%. The least bad region was the Western US, where sales inched up 1.2% year-over-year and traffic fell only 1.7%, according to TDn2K’s Restaurant Industry Snapshot. The worst was the NY-NJ Region, where sales plunged 4.6% and foot traffic 6.3%.

 

This comes after a dismal February, when foot traffic had dropped 5% year-over-year, and same-store sales 3.7%.

#6 In March, U.S. factory output declined at the fastest pace in more than two years.

#7 According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, not a single person is employed in nearly one out of every five U.S. families.

#8 U.S. government revenues just suffered their biggest drop since the last recession.

#9 Nearly all of the big automakers reported disappointing sales in March, and dealer inventories have now risen to the highest level that we have seen since the last recession.

#10 Used vehicle prices are absolutely crashing, and subprime auto loan losses have shot up to the highest level that we have seen since the last recession.

#11 At this point, most U.S. consumers are completely tapped out.  According to CNN, almost six out of every ten Americans do not have enough money saved to even cover a $500 emergency expense.

Just like in 2008, debts are going bad at a very alarming pace.  In fact, things have already gotten so bad that the IMF has issued a major warning about it…

In America alone, bad debt held by companies could reach $4 trillion, “or almost a quarter of corporate assets considered,” according to the IMF. That debt “could undermine financial stability” if mishandled, the IMF says.

 

The percentage of “weak,” “vulnerable” or “challenged” debt held as assets by US firms has almost arrived at the same level it was right before the 2008 crisis.

We are seeing so many parallels to the last financial crisis, and many are hoping that our politicians in Washington can fix things before it is too late.

On Monday, the most critical week of Trump’s young presidency begins.  The administration will continue working on tax reform and a replacement for Obamacare, but of even greater importance is the fact that if a spending agreement is not passed by Friday a government shutdown will begin at the end of the week…

Trump has indicated that he wants to tackle the repeal and replacement of Obamacare and introduce his “massive” tax plan in the next week, all while a shutdown of parts of federal government looms Friday.

 

By attempting three massive political undertakings in one week, investors will have a sense of whether or not Trump will be able to deliver on pro-growth policies that would be beneficial for markets.

 

If Trump can pull off the trifecta, it could restore faith that policy proposals like tax cuts and infrastructure spending are on the way. If not, look out.

Members of Congress are returning from their extended two week spring vacation, and now they will only have four working days to get something done.

And I don’t believe that they will be able to rush something through in just four days. 

The Republicans in Congress, the Democrats in Congress, and the Trump administration all want different things, and ironing out all of those differences is not going to be easy.

For example, the Trump administration is insisting on funding for a border wall, and the Democrats are saying no way.  The following comes from the Washington Post…

President Trump and his top aides applied new pressure Sunday on lawmakers to include money for a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border in a must-pass government funding bill, raising the possibility of a federal government shutdown this week.

 

In a pair of tweets, Trump attacked Democrats for opposing the wall and insisted that Mexico would pay for it “at a later date,” despite his repeated campaign promises not including that qualifier. And top administration officials appeared on Sunday morning news shows to press for wall funding, including White House budget director Mick Mulvaney, who said Trump might refuse to sign a spending bill that does not include any.

And of course the border wall is just one of a whole host of controversial issues that are standing in the way of an agreement.  Those that are suggesting that all of these issues will be resolved in less than 100 hours are being completely unrealistic.  And even though the Trump administration is putting on a brave face, the truth is that quiet preparations for a government shutdown have already begun.

The stock market bubble is showing signs of being ready to burst, and an extended government shutdown would be more than enough to push things over the edge.

Let us hope that this government shutdown is only for a limited period of time, because an extended shutdown could potentially be catastrophic.  In the end, either the Trump administration or the Democrats are going to have to give in on issues such as funding for Obamacare, the border wall, Planned Parenthood, defense spending increases, etc.

It will be a test of the wills, and it will be absolutely fascinating to see who buckles under the pressure first.

Still not convinced? After climbing to its highest in 3 years earlier in 2017, Citi’s Economic Surprise index — which gauges how well data come in better than expected — has sagged badly lately. In fact, this week saw the biggest drop in US Macro data in 6 years (after poor readings on job creation, inflation, housing starts and car sales)…

via http://ift.tt/2pWLZFE Tyler Durden

Following the worst week for US macro data in six years, The Chicago Fed (National Activity) and now The Dallas Fed (regional) have both disappointed and fallen this morning.

It was a rough week for 'hope' last week…

And this week has not started well…

March Chicago Fed national activity index printed 0.08 versus an estimated 0.50 (range -0.1 to 0.75) and February was revised lower to 0.27 from 0.34. Furthermore, 48 of the 85 monthly individual indicators made positive contributions, while 37 indicators deteriorated.

And then Dallas Fed disappointed, printing 16.8 against expectations of 17.0…

But it's the respondents comments that shed light on the ugly reality under the surface…

• The global economies and the U.S. economy are very weak and uncertain
• I keep reading and hearing that things are swinging in a favorable direction. I don’t see it yet. Steel consumption is still soft.
• We have never seen our construction industry in North Texas busier than it is right now, going back nearly 50 years
• We continue to be optimistic about the future; however, it still seems to be a slow thaw to the winter doldrums. We are busier in April than March, and hopefully this trend continues.
• We are still looking for some tax relief to expand faster and hire more people faster. In this labor market it is getting hard to find quality candidates, and salaries are increasing. The labor regulations and rules are starting to be less burdensome for the first time in a long time, improving the hiring outlook and allowing us to pay people more. The business sector is still suffering from too much bureaucracy and governmental red tape. We are becoming more concerned about future trade interruptions due to international conflicts. We are hoping for improved trade conditions, lower barriers, reduced tariffs and improved ease of commerce between countries.
• Oil and gas has little or no impact in our business. The one exception is that fewer workers are needed, as some roles have been replaced by more advanced equipment. Fewer workers means fewer families can afford craft and art supplies for themselves and their children. As we are in the art and craft business, this is not a cheery outlook.

It is clear that 'soft' data is reverting fast… now down to 2-month lows.

via http://ift.tt/2pWk6NP Tyler Durden

Do you remember when GOP Senators and Representatives were portrayed as literal monsters for forcing the Government to shut down?

We were told back in 2013 that if GOP-lead Congress didn’t keep the Government open… we would face literal Armageddon.

A few headlines from that time period:

Republicans Shutdown the Government for Nothing (the Atlantic)

Like Dr. Frankenstein, the GOP is trapped in a burning windmill with a monster of their own making (Charleston City Paper)

Ted Cruz: the GOP’s Self-Made Monster (The Guardian)

And of course…

They actually did it. A group of Republicans in the House just forced a government shutdown over Obamacare instead of passing a real budget.

~tweeted by then-President Barack Obama

We mention all of the above because in one of the greatest ironies of politics… Democrat leadership (Nancy Pelosi and Charles Schumer) is now advocating a Government shutdown in order to stop funding for a wall on the Mexico-US border.

Yep, the same crowd that claimed a Government shutdown mean the end of the world and those who are would shut down the Government over budgetary differences are monsters… now wants to employ pursue that exact outcome in order to stop the US having a border wall.

We don't particularly care for either side in this argument. But the irony is absurd.

Politics aside… Congress has returned from spring recess and now has four days to resolve a budget that features the border wall, funding for sanctuary cities, Obamacare subsidies at a time when it is clear various political factions will gladly torpedo legislation based on their agendas.

Good. Luck. With. That.

The reality is that a Government shutdown is not just likely but highly probable. And the fact that this is occurring when the US has already hit its debt ceiling and has implemented extraordinary measures doesn’t bode well.

The whole mess is quite similar to the Debt Ceiling crisis of mid-2011. That particular situation resulted in stocks plummeting 17% as the US lost its AAA credit rating.

It was only through direct Fed intervention as well as the announcement of Operation Twist that stocks were able to regain their footing.

This time around the Fed is TIGHTENING policy with plans for at least two more rate hikes and the shrinking of its balance sheet sometime later this year.

So the notion that the Fed will be able to “save the day” if Congress doesn’t get its act together isn’t anywhere near as high as it was in 2011.

This opens the door to a potential market “event.” And few if any are paying attention to it.

On that note we are already preparing our clients to make money from this with three simple investment strategies designed to pay out when the markets enter periods of heightened risk.

To learn them you can pick up a free Investment Report here:

http://ift.tt/2nJzTSA

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

via http://ift.tt/2oYc7Bz Phoenix Capital Research

Authored by Economic Prism's MN Gordon, via Acting-Man.com,

The Raw Deal

We stepped out on our front stoop Wednesday morning and paused to take it all in.  The sky was at its darkest hour just before dawn.  The air was crisp.  There was a soft coastal fog.  The faint light of several stars that likely burned out millennia ago danced just above the glow of the street lights.

And this is what they saw watching the sky from Mt. Wilson that night…

After a brief moment, we locked the door behind us and got into our car.  Springtime southern California mornings are exquisitely pleasant.  The early morning drive to downtown Los Angeles, on the other hand, is exquisitely painful.

Nonetheless, we make the best of it like we make the best of a trip to the dentist – or a visit with our accountant.  If anything, it affords us the opportunity to do something most people rarely do.  In particular, it gives us time to think.  Before we knew it we’d reached our destination.  But not before uncovering half dozen unrectified incongruities.  The sorts of things that are futile to piece together.

One thing that stuck in our craw like a broken chicken bone is the raw deal main street depositors and lenders get from credit unions and commercial banks.  In short, the credit system is tilted against them.  The rules of the game favor the bankers.

Extreme Maltreatment

Perhaps the rules of the game have always favored the bankers.  Loaning out deposits at a higher interest rate than the yield paid is cornerstone to fractional reserve banking.  However, the extreme maltreatment of individual depositors and borrowers that has persisted following the 2008 credit crisis is a downright disgrace.  Where to begin?

The prime rate, if you recall, is the benchmark used by banks to set rates on consumer loans.  These consumer loans include credit cards, auto loans, and home equity loans among others. Obviously, the prime rate is reserved for only the most qualified clients.  These are primarily corporations.  Not individual customers.  Certainly, they’re not your typical credit card user.

Prime Rate vs. Federal Funds Rate (effective, daily). As its name indicates (nomen est omen), the prime rate is reserved for the best credits who have some leverage in negotiating conditions – click to enlarge.

Individual customers typically pay the prime rate plus a percentage above, based on their default risk.  When the Federal Reserve raises or lowers the federal funds rate the prime rate moves in tandem.  Similarly, the variable rate paid on credit cards and other lines of credit also moves up or down accordingly.

The prime rate, based on The Wall Street Journal’s consensus survey of the 30 largest banks, is presently at 4 percent.  For perspective, the typical credit card rate these days has an annual percentage rate (APR) on the order of 16 percent – or more. This is all well and good, of course.  No one’s twisting the consumers’ arms and forcing them to take on debt.

To the contrary, consumers are eager and addicted to the readily available credit card debt the banks offer. Still this doesn’t change the fact that main street depositors and lenders continue to get a raw deal.  This, indeed, is a fact.  There’s no guesswork or conjecture about it.  Rather it’s a matter of simple math.

Average assessed credit card interest rate since ~2000. Interestingly, these rates went to far lower levels in the 2001 – 2002 downturn, presumably because average consumer credit scores were still much better at the time. Note that the 13.86% average is as of February 2017, i.e. the figure predates the most recent rate hike. It’s also not what consumers pay typically – click to enlarge.

Simple Math of Bank Horse-Puckey

As noted above, the typical credit card APR for individual consumers these days is on the order of 16 percent.  But if an individual loans their money to the bank, in the form of a savings deposit, do you know what the bank presently pays in return?

Let’s not complain too much, they mean well!

The typical annual percentage yield (APY) on savings deposits is not 1 percent.  It’s not even 0.1 percent.  Rather, it’s about 0.01 percent; which is effectively less than zero after inflation.

What’s more, if an individual loans $10,000 to the bank for an entire year, in the form of a certificate of deposit (CD), they’ll get an APY of about 0.35 percent.  No doubt, an APY of 0.01 percent on deposits and 0.35 percent on 1-year CDs in the face of 16 percent APR on credit card debt is an utter insult.

Conversely, the banks have never had it so good.  They borrow from the Fed at less than 1 percent interest.  Then they buy U.S. Treasury notes – currently the 10-Year note is yielding 2.24 percent.  After that they issue credit to consumers at 16 percent APR while paying 0.01 percent yield on savings deposits. Has there ever been a more questionable business that’s given every advantage under the sun?

Give us your money, suckers! The Fed’s rate hikes have clearly affected loan rates – the same cannot be said of interest paid on the deposits of the army of suckers who hold altogether USD 9.2 trillion in savings deposits at US commercial banks. Somehow, the banks failed to pass on the rate hikes in this case. We reckon this happy oversight translates into a fat net interest margin boost – click to enlarge.

Incidentally, Bank of American reported first quarter earnings this week of $0.41 per share, beating analyst expectations by a whole $0.06 per share.  How did they do it?

“Our approach to responsible growth delivered strong results again this quarter,” CEO Brian Moynihan said in a statement. What’s responsible growth?  Is it like responsible drinking, or an honest thief? According to the BofA website:

“Bank of America has transformed into a simpler, more efficient company focused on growing the real economy in a way that creates tangible value for our business, our customers and clients and the communities we serve.

 

“Through our strategy of responsible growth, we are driving the economy in sustainable ways—helping to create jobs, develop communities, foster economic mobility and address society’s biggest challenges around the world — while managing risk and providing a return to our customers, clients and our business.”

One honest thief meets another… he probably shouldn’t have worried.

What a load of horse-puckey.  Tangible value is only created for certain customers.  That is, shareholders.  Not depositors. 

The point is in today’s fiat money financial system, where debt is money and money is debt, the house always wins.  Place your bets accordingly.

via http://ift.tt/2pWGZAM Tyler Durden

After 51 consecutive months, the dead CAT spell is finally over.

On Monday, traditionally just ahead of earnings, Caterpillar reported that in March its world retail sales rose 1% Y/Y, the first increase since November 2012. The reason: Asia/Pacific, also known as China, which saw a 46% surge in total machine sales, up from 39% last month, and the best Asian performance going all the way back to April 2011. Aside from China, however, the drought remained as every other region posted a decline in annual sales, led by Latin America (down 25%), North America (down 13%) and EAME (down 3%).

Looking at a breakdown of what kinds of machines drove the global rebound, it was all construction related machinery, which rose 7%, once again entirely due to China, where sales soared by 56% as all other geographic regions posted negative sales. Elsewhere, the contraction among resource industries continued, with world sales down 19%, and even China declining by 1%. The only region higher, perhaps predictably, was EAME where sales of resource machines rose 23% in March.

Finally, looking at the type of Energy and Transportation machines sold, Power Gen, Industrial and Transportation all declined( -7%, -6% and -3%, respectively), while Oil and Gas rose by 15% in March.

Putting it all together, the following chart of CAT global retail sales.

As a reminder, the last cycle peaked in early 2011, just as the latest Chinese credit impulse peaked and rolled over, something it has also done in recent weeks. As such, CAT retail sales may be the best concurrent, or slighly lagging, indicator of the Chinese reflation trade, which as UBS explained recently is the fundamental driver behind the global reflation impulse.

via http://ift.tt/2pWCyWE Tyler Durden