Kim Kardashian Is Currently Our Nation’s Greatest Hope for Prison Reform

Vanity Fair reported this morning that reality TV superstar Kim Kardashian will meet with White House senior adviser and Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner, as well as President Trump himself, to push for prison reform today.

Specifically, Kardashian will be pushing for a presidential pardon for a 62-year-old woman convicted of nonviolent drug offenses:

Kardashian hopes to make a legal argument to President Trump for why he should pardon Alice Johnson, a 62-year-old great-grandmother serving a life sentence without parole for a first-time drug offense. More than 21 years after Johnson went to prison, Kardashian came across Johnson’s story on Twitter earlier this year and reached out to Ivanka, who connected her to Kushner, according to the source. In an interview earlier this month, Kardashian said that, if given the opportunity, she would “explain to [Trump] that, just like everybody else, we can make choices in our lives that we’re not proud of and that we don’t think through all the way.”

You can read more about Johnson’s case in her bio page on CAN-DO Clemency, a group that advocates for clemency for non-violent drug offenders. As her page notes, Johnson’s clemency request was denied by the Obama administration.

Yesterday Kardashian also tweeted out the story of Matthew Charle. Charles was released from federal prison after serving 21 years behind bars for a crack cocaine offense, but two years after he started putting his life back together a federal appeals court ruled he had been set free in error. He has since been returned to prison.

As Reason reported yesterday, Charles’ story sparked outrage and widespread calls for Trump to commute his sentence.

While the Trump administration is staunchly opposed to sentencing reforms, it has supported more modest prison and reentry reforms. Earlier this month, the White House held a prison reform summit where Trump called on Congress to pass a pending prison reform bill and get it to his desk. He also spoke in his State of the Union speech earlier this year about the need to give former inmates better training and opportunities for a second chance at life.

Trump has proved receptive to other celebrity entreaties, such as one from Sylvester Stallone that resulted in Trump’s recent posthumous pardon of boxer Jack Johnson. Listen, it’s a not great state of affairs when you need a massive celebrity to get the attention of the president and fix gross injustices, but if Kim K. can get it done, more power to her.

The White House did not respond to requests for comment.

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Buffett Offered To Make $3BN Investment In Uber But Deal Fell Apart

In the most bizarre deal news of the day, Bloomberg reports that in what is supposed to be a repeat of Warren Buffett’s 2008 “bailout” of Goldman Sachs, the Berkshire boss proposed investing $3BN in Uber but the deal fell apart as a result of “disagreements over terms and size of the deal.”

It appears that Buffett felt that the “reputationally-challenged” Uber, which continues to burn through massive amounts of cash, would jump at the opportunity of having an investor of Buffett’s “pristine moral stature” – think Canada’s near insolvent Home Capital Group – by lending Uber what Bloomberg dubbed “his sterling reputation”, along with some capital, “in exchange for cushy deal terms”, or in other words, a distressed investment.

Explicitly modeled after Buffett’s $5 investment in Goldman, which generated a $1.6BN profit in preferred stock returns and an even greater profit in warrants, under the proposed deal, Berkshire would have provided a convertible loan to Uber that would have protected Buffett’s investment should Uber hit financial straits, while providing significant upside if Uber continued to grow in value, Bloomberg reports; furthermore, Buffett’s initial offer was well above $3 billion, although perhaps Buffett was simply confused and did not realize early on that Uber does not engage in stock buybacks, a favorite strategy of the Omaha billionaire ever since his IBM and Apple investments.

Eventually, as part of the proposed deal, which took place in the post-Kalanick era, Uber’s new CEO Dara Khosrowshahi proposed reducing the size of Buffett’s investment to $2 billion, in hopes of just renting Buffett’s name while giving him a smaller share of the company. The deal fell apart after the two sides couldn’t agree on terms, one of the people said.

The deal discussions, which ultimately fell apart, took place as Uber was pursuing a $1.5 billion term loan which closed in March as a source of additional funding in addition to the company’s large, but declining $6.3BN cash hoard; “the Berkshire discussions show the company’s continued appetite for capital” Bloomberg adds, although it was not clear what for. Meanwhile, Uber had also just received $1.25 billion from a deal with SoftBank in January, as part of which SoftBank and its consortium purchased $8 billion in Uber stock from existing shareholders.

One wonders what existing Uber owners knew that prompted them to sell the stock at a valuation haircut, at a time when Buffett was sniffing around, also hoping to invest at what was effectively a substantial discount.

Ultimately, the fact that Uber’s liquidity crunch had been temporarily resolved is what killed the Buffett deal:

Coming so soon after that cash infusion, Buffett’s attempt to take a stake in Uber while it was on the rocks may have been too late to squeeze favorable terms from the company.

Uber, which for much of 2017 developed a reputation of a hotbed of unwarranted sexual assaults and immature executives under now former CEO Kalanick, has managed to regain some footing under his replacement Dara Khosrowshahi, who joined the company in September 2017, and who managed to help “calm disputes” among Uber’s board and push the company beyond its relentless recent crises.

With Didi and Lyft breathing down the company’s neck, Khosrowshahi mounted a global apology tour, running advertisements that feature the CEO speaking directly to the camera, promising that the Uber is turning over a new leaf. Meanwhile, Uber – which still has no CFO – continues to burn massive amounts of cash as the company’s investors continue to directly subsidize each and every car ride in hopes of eventually monopolizing market share and regaining much needed pricing power.

 

 

 

 

 

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WTI/RBOB Pop-Then-Drop After Bigger Than Expected Crude Build

Dollar weakness and some OPEC jawboning helped WTI/RBOB rebound today after a week of pain into the API print, but after a bigger than expected crude build, WTI and RBOB spiked higher (thank you algos) before sliding lower…

“The question about production cuts is the hammer that really drove the market lower,” said Gene McGillian, a market research manager at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “Unless we get signs that more oil is going to come onto the market than initially figured, we’ll probably stabilize here.”

API

  • Crude +1.001mm (+450k exp)

  • Cushing -132k

  • Gasoline -1.682mm

  • Distillates +1.466mm – biggest build since Feb

After last week’s surprisingly large crude build expectations were for another – albeit smaller – build this week, but in fact API reported a bigger than expected (and unseasonal) crude build… Notably distillates saw their biggest weekly build since Feb…

 

WTI/RBOB rallied into today’s API print then the machines went crazy – instantly spiking higher before tumbling back lower on the biggee than expected build

“What we’ve seen is a bit of liquidation of longs a few days ago. The market oversold,” said Bart Melek, head of global commodity strategy at TD Securities in Toronto. “Our position continues to be OPEC will try to compensate for any losses from Venezuela and potentially Iran, and above all, it will try to keep stability in the market.”

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Check Out This Lost 1980 Election Eve Speech Written for Ronald Reagan: New at Reason

During the 1980 presidential campaign John McClaughry served as one of Ronald Reagan’s three principal speechwriters. In late October 1980, he was assigned to draft Reagan’s election eve national television speech. The idea—initially—was to summarize the main points of his campaign for the presidency, and to illustrate how his thinking on public issues would serve the American people.

Before McClaughry could produce a third draft, there was a new development. According to three-day running polls, Reagan was leading President Jimmy Carter by 10 points nationally and his support was trending upwards. So the campaign high command decided—rightly—to not have Reagan give an election eve address.

“Reagan’s Lost Speech” was never cleared for delivery, or even (so far as we know) shown to Reagan. But it encapsulated ideas that made Reagan so appealing to so many, most importantly the notion that “the overriding question is not one of Left or Right. It is one of reversing the flow of power and control to ever more remote institutions.”

In the speech, which unfortunatley bore little ressemblence to his presidency once it was underway, Reagan would offer his dream as president to “capture a vision of America—strong, vital, productive—where the affliction of giantism began to give way before a resurgence of individual liberty, of strong families, of the human-scale institutions that give meaning to our existence, of a new faith in American’s future.”

Read the whole thing for the first time exclusively here at Reason.

View this article.

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What If This ‘Fragility’ Is Not About Italy?

Authored by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,

It’s not quite yet on the level of October 15, 2014, but it’s not really that far off, either. What made the prior episode three and a half years ago unique was the condensed timeframe, as well as how far UST yields fell. Today has been a far steadier “flight to safety”, meaning the same thing just spread out over the entire session. Collateral.

And it’s worldwide. The UST 10s is as good as any other place to start. The benchmark bond’s yield opened from the Memorial Day holiday down a little more than 5 bps in yield from last Friday’s close. Beginning around 10:40 am ET, over the next two hours it would sink a further 8 bps, pause until just before 2:00 pm ET, and then drop another 6 bps before recovering just a tiny bit at the close.

From Friday, the 10s are more than 16 bps lower in yield. That’s not uncertainty, it’s a collateral call (fear).

More interesting, the specific trigger in the UST selloff appears to be JPY. It was moving higher (bad) from the Asian open last night. Starting off near 109.50, by Europe’s open it was already up to 108.50. JPY had recovered 109 again until around 10:00 am ET when it reversed and moved sharply higher all over. It didn’t quite manage to break back above 108, but it came close toward the end of trading.

It’s a major reverse from the past few months. During those liquidations in January/February, JPY was on the upswing. From March forward, however, while things were going wrong pretty much everywhere else in the eurodollar’s world, JPY was the one key price that was moving in a favorable direction. It had fallen from a liquidation-type level above 105 all the way to a more BoJ pleasing 111 and less.

To have the yen turnaround and go back, starting last Monday, was a potential warning.

It is not one that suggests Italy. That country in particular may be on everyone’s mind right now if only because that’s where all the most violent market action is taking place. Not only that, this growing “contagion” fits all the preferred narratives about the politics of populism (dangerous).

What is truly telling is just how quickly everything changed. That’s not Italy, that’s the fragility of this whole narrative from inflation hysteria to this boom that never was.

There is no better example of it right now than Germany’s debt markets.

Far more than UST’s, German bunds, schaetzes, and bobl’s have erased almost a year and a half of “reflation” in only two weeks.

Poof, like that it’s gone.

One reason for this obvious fragility is, as we noted last week, Europe’s “recovery” was little more than rhetorical. This has been building for several months, not a few days since Italy’s President sparked an unprecedented crisis (for modern Italy). Going all the way back to January, what little economic momentum there had been had all but vanished in those earlier worldwide liquidations.

Italy is merely another reminder that nothing has changed, and in all likelihood nothing will. Being left in this wretched state is only pure risk. They can gloss over it on occasion, as they have from time to time (2010, 2013-14, 2017), but markets including those in Germany haven’t really been fooled. Bund yields though better than last year were still even at their reflation best this year nearer to record lows than even low levels at the last cycle in 2014.

In other words, financial and monetary participants appear to have been looking for an excuse to pull out; any excuse. They never went all that far in, which is why in a matter of days it has all gone up in smoke.

The real one to look out for, however, is only tangential to the European fireworks. The euro is being dragged lower and lower which again will be laid at the doorstep of Italy’s elected populist government. Instead, we must keep in mind it was European banks who appeared to have stepped up in 2017 in Japan’s increasing eurodollar absence. German bund yields tell us that these very banks may not be so enamored with the story that led them in that direction at that time.

Of all the currencies now moving the wrong way, including JPY, it’s CNY that should be at the top of every watchlist.

After all, it was around May 15 that it started to drop and as of trading today it’s back below 6.40 for the first time since January. More than that, it’s been falling going back to April 19 – six weeks all moving lower is a bad sign.

That’s pretty much where we are today.

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US Stocks Soar… Because Nothing’s Fixed In Europe & US Growth Slowed

Equity investors are convinced…

 

Does this look like Italy is ‘fixed’?

US Bank stocks bounced but remain notably red on the week…

 

In fact the big US banks are still notably weaker…

And Italian banks hardly rejoiced today…

 

So The ECB bid BTPs at the auction and The Fed PPT bid US stocks at the open… The Dow remain red on the week, S&P and Trannies faded into the close but Small Caps exploded and held gains on the day…

 

The Russell 2000 was squeezed to another new record high today as the entire US equity market soared on absolutely nothing. In Europe – no resolutions, no nearer a non-anti-establishment government, and no promise of support from the ECB (in fact the opposite)…

 

Oh and for those who suggest that buying Small Caps makes sense here as they are domestically-focused – well fuck that, US economic data has been dismal and got worse today as GDP missed expectations…

 

The simple reason why Small Caps exploded higher is – another massive short squeeze…

 

The S&P 500 bounced off its 50DMA, pushing back above the 100DMA…

 

Bonds and Stocks decoupled as US market opened (stocks spiked, bonds were bid)

 

Credit and Stocks decoupled massively

 

As an FYI – European HY credit trades wider than US HY credit for the first time since Nov 2013

 

Treasury Yields bounced higher, but remain notably lower from Friday…

 

30Y yields rose but bonds rallied back down to around the 3.00% level into the close…

 

The yield curve collapsed today, erasing yesterday’s brief steepening… This is the 2nd lowest close for the 2s30s curve since Oct 2007…

 

Breakevens bounced today but faded into the close – having never recovered yesterday’s drop…

 

The Dollar Index tumbled back to unchanged on the week…

 

Cryptos gave back some of yesterday’s gains leaving them all in the red on the week…

 

Commodities remained relatively flat on the week but WTI surged ahead of tonight’s API data…

 

WTI bounced back above $68…

 

Finally, while the mainstream media celebrates today’s manic melt-up in stocks (blatantly ignoring bonds, credit, economic data, and Italy), the SMART money is paniccing out of the market…

 

 

 

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This Is The New Italy

Authored by Attilio Moro via ConsortiumNews.com,

Years of neoliberal economic policies imposed by Brussels and by Italian politicians alike have devastated numerous industrial towns and the very fabric of Italian society.

Sesto San Giovanni, a town on the outskirts of Milan, used to be one of the industrial capitals of Italy.

With around 200,000 inhabitants (45,000 blue collar workers, and a robust middle class), it was the headquarters of some of the most dynamic Italian companies, including Magneti Marelli, Falck, Breda and many more.

Today Sesto is an industrial desert – the factories are gone, the professional middle class has fled, many stores have shut down, and the city is trying to reinvent itself as a medical research center.

Twenty-three kilometers (14 miles) to the north of Sesto, the town of Meda was the seat of various symbols of Italian excellence: Salotti Cassina and Poltrona Frau, both of which exported high-quality furniture all over the world and employed tens of thousands of workers and designers. They fed a number of small family-based companies providing parts and highly qualified seasonal labour. Today both companies are gone.

Montezemolo: Public enemy.

Luca Cordero di Montezemolo, a former chairman of Ferrari, Fiat and Alitalia, and now a public enemy because of his dismissal of the “Made in Italy” label, acquired both companies and moved them to Turkey, choosing profit over quality – and Italian jobs. Montezemolo, of aristocratic background, is a champion of Italian neoliberalism, having founded the influential “free market” think tank Italia Futura (Future Italy) in 2009.

Another victim is the town of Sora, with a population of 25,000, 80 km. (50 miles) east of Rome. Until recently Sora was an affluent commercial city, with medium-sized paper factories and hundreds of shops. Today, all of the factories are gone and 50 percent of shops have closed.

All over Italy, the neoliberal policies that led to the economic crisis and resulting social decadence have accelerated in the wake of the financial collapse of 2007.

Once The Stalingrad of Italy

Sesto San Giovanni used to be known as ‘the Italian Stalingrad’, due to the strength of its working class and the Communist Party receiving over 50 percent of the vote. Now the strongest party in town is the Lega (The League), a right wing, xenophobic party. This has been accompanied by a demographic shift, as Sesto has lost almost one third of its population, but acquired tens of thousands of immigrants, which today constitute almost 20 percent of its population.

The Italian Communist Party, once the strongest in the capitalist world, has in the meantime disappeared, together with the working class. There is also the destitution of a dwindling middle class accompanying the breakdown of the social fabric with rampant corruption. All the traditional political parties have been wiped away.

Sesto San Giovanni: Once the Italian Stalingrad

They have been replaced by the so-called ‘populists’: TheLega and the 5 Star Movement, undisputed winners of the latest elections in March, who are now in the process of trying to form a new government.

The Lega expresses the frustrations of the north of Italy that is still productive (fashion, services and some high quality products), and demands lower taxes, as Italian taxes are among the highest in Europe. They also want a parallel national currency, a reduction in circulation of the Euro (which slows down exports, especially to Germany) and limits to immigration.

The 5 Star Movement, which is partly considered to be the heir of the former Communist Party but with a different social base consisting of an undifferentiated lower class replacing the disappearing working class. It advocates a moralization of the political parties and a universal basic income of 750 euros per month ($875) for the poorest to reduce the effects of the social disaster which took place in the south of the country in the last 10 years: 20 percent unemployment, affecting 40 percent of young people, making the mafia and organized crime the biggest ‘employers’ in the most critical southern regions.

This is the new Italy. The old one, the Italy of Fiat, Cassina, small family-run businesses, the Italy of the Christian Democrats, the Communist Party and vibrant working-class culture is no more.

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Mortgage Refi Activity Plunges To 18 Year Lows (And It’s About To Get A Lot Worse)

It appears The Fed’s desperate efforts to normalize interest rates (and its balance sheet) before the next recession strikes is reflexively driving a significant part of the economy towards that very end.

As the Mortgage Bankers Association reports, mortgage applications decreased 2.9% from one week earlier.

The Refinance Index decreased 5% from the previous week to its lowest level since December 2000.

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2% from one week earlier.

The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3% compared with the previous week and was 2 percent higher than the same week one year ago. …

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($453,100 or less) decreased to 4.77 percent from 4.78 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.50 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

And given the recent surge in mortgage rates, it’s about to get a lot worse…

And it appears Homebuilder stocks are starting to pick up those signals – despite, still near cycle high NAHB optimism…

 

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Central Banks Haven’t Always Been Quite As Bad As They Are Now

Authored by Marcia Christoff-Kurapovna via The Mises Institute,

Long ago, in a universe of sane fiscal policy far far away, there existed an institution, then new to the world of international banking and finance, called the Federal Reserve Bank, whose primary concern of the day – the day being its founding on December 13, 1913 – was to have very large reserves of cash backed by even larger reserves of gold that were enough “to earn the public trust.”

It was an unusual kind of organization, where crude, simplistic policy directives such as “safety and sound judgement”, “lawful money” and “normal monetary order” possessed none of the sophisticated reasoning of “zero-interest rate policy”, “helicopter Ben” and “quantitative easing’ characterizing that Bank’s latter day ne’er-do-well progeny. Few American bankers at the time really even wanted a “Fed”, fearing that the public – and the bankers themselves – would not understand what its mission was not: that is, to not be an endless source of easy credit and bail-outs.

Indeed, it was altogether another world.

“There are always many citizens and some bankers who believe that a central bank exists for the purpose of making credit easy at all times and obtainable without difficulty by any bank, no matter what its condition may be or the circumstances under which it wishes to borrow”, wrote Thomas Conway, Jr. in a seminal article, “The Financial Policy of the Federal Reserve Banks” in The Journal of Political Economy in April 1914. A central bank, as “the bankers’ bank”, was in a general way expected to do what banks of the community were supposed to do for the individual business man and depositor, “and this does not mean that it is free to tend lavishly to a bank without inquiry into the purpose of the loan”, continued Conway. “Nor does it mean it is obliged to come to the rescue of every bank that is in serious difficulty.”

The early Fed founders took their cues from the central banks of the British and the French – in particular, those banks’ stringent codes of monetary conduct. Without wanting to romanticize the era, one may say that fiscal conservatism was indeed the international order of the day and the models of the mighty Bank of England and the Bank of France made high reserve ratios the imperative of the early Federal Reserve. Before the days of those Fed banks, no agency existed to lead banks in attempting to avoid undue credit expansion such as preceded the crisis of 1907. The general economic situation at the time was comparatively sound and the crisis was largely a result of the excessive inflation caused by the banks.

“The importance of a large reserve cannot be too strongly emphasized”, wrote Conway, “and the directors of these institutions must be forced by public opinion, if necessary, to realize that they are trustees of the nation’s prosperity and that they must carry large reserves.”

Conway added: “It would be very unsafe for the Federal Reserve Banks customarily to allow their reserves to run down below 50% and safety demands, at least in the early years when the system is getting into operation that reserves shall run as high as 75%.”

The Federal Reserve Act had provided that every Federal Reserve bank would retain “reserves in gold or lawful money of not less than 35% against deposits and reserves in gold of not less than 40 % against its Federal Reserve notes in actual circulation.” Inflation was not seen as a threat because of this large storehouse of gold. Still, prudence and caution ruled the day. As Charles Sumner Hamlin, the first Fed chairman, was to point out:

“So long as the reserves of the Federal Reserve Banks are above the point demanded by safety and good judgement, there is no reason why demands for funds by a member bank should not be met out of the stock of lawful money and gold in the vaults of the reserve banks.”

He then warned:

“But when the reserves of the reserve banks fall to the point where any further depletion would weaken them, or cause anxiety among bankers and businessmen, the Federal Reserve Banks should disregard all thought of their saving which they can effect by paying out lawful money and should resort to the practice of issuing Federal Reserve notes.”

It is interesting to note that after World War I, the governors of the British and the French central banks remained as conservative as ever, insisting upon about putting their fiscal house in order to pre-war standards. Keynesian “monetary policy” and genteel welfare-state-ism had not yet become the intellectual opiate of choice amongst these philosopher-economists. This mindset is described in a colorful article, “An Analysis of the Condition of the Central Banks of England, France and the United States 1911-1919”, published in an MIT economics journal of September 1919, which details a meeting that January of the “Special Committee on Currency and Foreign Exchanges after the War” headed by Lord Cunliffe, then Governor of the Bank of England. Cunliffe expressed caution at the ravages of war- financing by the state and its threat to the gold standard.

Acknowledging the inevitable fiscal stress of war expenditures, Cunliffe nonetheless maintained that the practice had led “to an effective departure from the gold standard, to a real though not measured depreciation of the currency in terms of gold, and to the stopping of the Bank of England’s recognized machinery for controlling discount rates, the foreign exchanges, and the gold supply.” He urged the Committee to restore “without delay” the conditions necessary to the maintenance of an effective gold standard” and also demanded, “as essential steps in this restoration, the end to government borrowings and the early repayment of government securities held by the banks, the gradual reduction in the currency note issue, and its eventual replacement by Bank of England notes.”

The same sense of fiscal urgency held true for The Bank of France at the end of World War II, whose authorities also shunned debt and money printing and “looked with grave misgiving upon the increase in the note issue” for the “extraordinary arrears in the form of advances to the state”, as detailed in the above-cited article. At the end of 1918 these debts had reached a total of over twenty billion francs (6o% of notes in circulation), in spite of the Bank’s endeavors to reduce the loans made to the state. The Governor of the Bank of France, Georges Pallain, apologized for this situation by stating at a stockholders’ meeting in January 1919: ” The excessive issue of bank notes, the leading item in the list of our liabilities, weighs heavily on exchange conditions and aggravates the crisis in prices…The repayment of the debt of the state to the Bank is the necessary condition for this, and the only means of re-establishing normal monetary order.”

Having watched closely the situation in Europe, the U.S. was confident of its prudent attitude. Aldoph Miller, head of the Federal Reserve of New York, wrote in 1921 of Federal Reserve policy:

“The three chief elements of the policy of a central bank or system of reserve holding institutions are best disclosed in connection with the attitude towards 1) gold 2) currency 3) credit.”

He noted proudly: “The federal reserve system has met [these] tests on the whole with remarkable success.”

Nonetheless, years prior to the outbreak of World War II, the seeds of the corruption of the “bankers’ bank” largely black-and-white view of the world – its obsessive fiscal conservatism, its focus on fundamentals, its suspicion of anything that “eased” or loosened standards of credit – was giving away to philosophical and intellectual blurred lines and vagaries of language.

“It is increasingly more difficult to distinguish monetary and economic policy”, wrote scholar Harold D. Gideonese, in an essay “Money and Finance” of May 1934.

“We are far from a time when economic advisers could set up a ‘gold standard’ without concern for related problems such as debt payments and their relation to a creditor country’s tariff policy.”

And even as early as 1920 bankers echoed the experience of the governors of the Bank of England and the Bank of France in warning against money-printing magic of central bank tendencies and that the panacea of any fiscal crisis was discipline. A Barton Hepburn of Chase National Bank, then president of that institution, in a lively address otherwise dryly entitled, “A Discussion of Financial Policies in Relation to Government Inflation” of June 1920 to the Academy of Political Science in New York City. Hepburn stated:

“We struggled here in this country for forty years to amend our archaic banking laws, and finally succeeded […] But the administration of the Federal Reserve banking system has made it a central bank; the system is absolutely dominated by the Federal Reserve Board at Washington and the Secretary of the Treasury, more particularly the latter so far, because of the extreme needs of the Government in its financial operations during the war. In its administration, I think that the system is worthy of all credit, .and we are very much to be congratulated upon having it in force in our country. Dr. Willis alluded to the fact that it was regarded as a superman and more was expected of it than could be realized; that is true. […]We cannot now have a money stringency panic, but we can have panics in this country, and unless I am very much mistaken, we are heading toward one now; there are all the elements of danger not only underneath the surface but right on the surface, and no panacea will correct them except economy and conservatism.”

“It was, at least in theory, simple enough in the old days,” wrote a wistful W. Randolph Burgess, head of the New York Federal Reserve, in 1938.

“In the present strange new world, where the old gold portents have lost their former meaning, where is the radio beam which the central banker may follow?

As noted in this article ,

“the men of his era and of the late nineteenth century understood the meaning of such a question and, more importantly, why it is one that must be asked.”

But theirs was a different world, when some antiquated notion such as “the public trust” guided policy and to be a conservative was the most future-oriented outlook one could adopt.

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Goldman Admits It Has No Idea What Happens Next In Italy

Amid chatter of rifts among the populist leaders and a technocrat premier-designate who seems incapable of moving forward, deciphering what happens next in Italy is hard – as evidenced by the early gains in Italian bonds starting to be erased.

Italy’s 2Y Yield is back at the critical 2.00% threshold once again…

Even Goldman’s crystal ball is unable to see the near future, as they explain that there are several possible ramifications of the Italian political deadlock.

One possible outcome is that Mr. Cottarelli presents President Mattarella with a list of prospective ministers, the majority of whom would likely be technocrats. If President Mattarella accepts the proposed ministers, the government would be sworn in and ask for a confidence vote in Parliament.

As we have previously discussed, in our view the government would be highly unlikely to win such a confidence vote as Lega and the Five Star Movement (5SM) have indicated they would not offer their support while Forza Italia (the political party of former PM Silvio Berlusconi) has said it also would not vote in favour of such as arrangement; at the same time some members of Partito Democratico (the centre-left party of former PM Matteo Renzi) have suggested they would abstain. Should the confidence vote fail (as we expect), a caretaker government led by Mr. Cottarelli would hold office for a short period of time until new elections take place, likely right after the summer.

A second possible outcome is that Mr. Cottarelli hands back the mandate without forming a government. In this situation new elections would be held soon, most likely at the end of July, and the government of incumbent Prime Minister Mr. Gentiloni would continue to be in office and run day to day government affairs.

A third possible outcome, as reported by local media, is that the leaders of Lega and the Five Star Movement form a coalition government with the aim of winning a confidence vote in Parliament. Should Mr. Cottarelli hand back the mandate without forming a government, the President of the Republic could consider granting a mandate to Mr. Salvini (Lega), Mr. Di Maio (Five Star Movement), or another person as indicated. In this situation a few more days would be needed to learn whether or not a government would be formed.

Against this backdrop, Goldman believes political uncertainty in Italy will remain elevated for quite some time and Italian asset prices will continue to be under pressure.

We expect investors will remain concerned about the:

(i) economic policies that Lega and the Five Star Movement could implement if they come into office,

(ii) subsequent impact on debt sustainability and ratings downgrades, and

(iii) commitment by such a coalition government to Italy’s participation in the European Union and membership of the Euro area.

Coming just day after Moody’s put Italy on creditwatch, in the event of a coalition government between Lega and the Five Star Movement, the choice of prime minister and finance minister will be key for investors to (i) assess the commitment to Italy’s participation in the European Union and membership of the Euro area, and (ii) determine the sustainability of Italian public debt.

On the latter, the Governor of the Bank of Italy, Mr. Visco, spoke extensively yesterday. While highlighting the rebound in Italy’s GDP growth and progress made in reforming some sectors of the economy, Mr. Visco argued in favour of a very prudent fiscal policy (an assessment we strongly agree with) to prevent a crisis in confidence in Italian sovereign debt and a resultant sharp slowdown in the economy.

So put another way – Goldman has no idea what happens next, and for now suggests steering clear of buying the dips in Italian assets until some level of clarity is achieved.

 

 

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