If you are actively involved in the markets as a trader or investors, you need to be intensely careful regarding your political bias.

Every single person has a political bias. Everyone. It’s not a bad thing. It’s just a fact.

But if you're looking to make money in today's market, BIAS is a four letter word.

However, the Trump Presidency is bringing out personal bias in ways we’ve never seen before. People on both sides of the political spectrum are literally losing their minds.

Trump supporters see no fault. Trump opponents see no benefit.

This is EXTREMELY dangerous if you are making investment decisions with this going on. No matter how sophisticated your model or framework is, if you’re pumping biased ideas into it, you’re going to get poor results.

Consider election night.

Building up to election night we were told that if Trump won the market would Crash. The media was in on this. Experts were in on this.

Then Trump won, and stocks erupted out to new all-time highs breaking out of a two-year consolidation range.

The media then flipped the script and began claiming that Trump had unleashed an economic utopia and that GDP growth of 5% would hit soon.

When I say, the “media” I mean the exact same groups claiming a Trump win would crash the markets.

My point is this: now more than ever if you’re trying to make money from the markets, you need to check your political bias.

Not everything Trump does is great and not everything Trump does is bad.

But if you have natural inclination to believe EITHER of those views tends to be true, you are in SERIOUS trouble.

On that note, we are already helping our clients successfully profit from Trump’s true impact on the markets with our Special Report titled How to Profit From the Trump Trade

In it, we outline how Trump’s Presidency will affect the markets in 2017 …which investments will perform best this year as a result of Trump’s policies… and three specific strategies that will outperform the market as a result of them.

You can pick up one of the few remaining copies here:

http://ift.tt/2ktrX6e

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

 

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Interested in precious metals investing or storage? Contact us HERE 

 

 

 

 

Fake News and Real Money

Posted with permission and written by Rory Hall and Dave Kranzler (CLICK HERE FOR ORIGINAL)

 

 

 

But the most brilliant propagandist technique will yield no success unless one fundamental principle is borne in mind constantly and with unflagging attention. It must confine itself to a few points and repeat them over and over. Here, as so often in this world, persistence is the first and most important requirement for success. – Adolf Hitler

 

Propaganda, also known as “fake news,” has become the norm in mainstream media reporting. Somehow the idea of Russia hacking the DNC computers morphed into the generic, “Russia hacked the election.” Per Hitler’s formula, Hillary Clinton introduced the idea during one of the presidential debates and kept repeating it until the press seized it and ran all the way with to the end zone with “Trump is a Russian ally.” Now Congress is pre-occupied with the fraudulent charge that Russia is controlling U.S. politics. The whole spectacle is beyond idiotic.

 

In a similar manner, the reporting of economic statistics has become another tool of propaganda. The Government, as we all well know by now, spits out economic reports based on shoddy statistical samples that are seasonally adjusted. Then the data that is cooked for any specific month is annualized. While the result might not be too far off base for any specific month, the errors aggregate over time so that some statistics, like the GDP report, bear no resemblance to reality.

 

A great example of using propaganda to promote an idea is the continuous mantra coming from the National Association of Realtors that “low inventory” is hampering home sales. It’s an effective device to make the public think that a lack of homes for sale is the explanation for declining sales. It’s also a lie. Homebuilders are sitting on a record level of inventory. Flippers and investors bought 37% of all existing homes that traded in 2016. Many are sitting on homes they can’t sell for enough to cover their rehab expenses. The over $750,000 segment of the market is flooded with inventory.

 

The truth is that, if you examine the historical data in order to question the NAR’s assertions, the facts show that since 1999 – which is when the Fed began tracking existing home sales – relative inventory levels do not drive home sales:

 

 

In fact – if anything – there is an inverse correlation between inventory levels and home sales. In other words, since 1999, homes sales rise when inventories are low!

 

Thus propaganda is a tool used to manage public perception. Unfortunately, a high percentage of the population only consumes headlines and sound-bytes. It’s the perfect set-up for politicians to employ Hitler’s advice on administering propaganda. The commonly accepted idea is, in fact, the opposite of the truth.

 

The commandeering of a country by elitists begins by eliminating real money and replacing it with a fraudulent fiat currency. But the eastern hemisphere is moving in an opposite direction as the west. As reproduced in The Daily Coin, Russia and China have quietly struck an agreement laying the groundwork to replace the U.S. dollar’s reserve status with a gold-backed currency system: Moscow and Beijing join forces to bypass US dollar in world money market. In today’s episode of the Shadow of Truth we discuss the decline of the United States and the advancement of the new superpower bloc emerging in the east.

 

 

 

Questions or comments about this article? Leave your thoughts HERE.

 

 

 

 

Fake News and Real Money

Posted with permission and written by Rory Hall and Dave Kranzler (CLICK HERE FOR ORIGINAL)

via http://ift.tt/2oiUg9b Sprott Money

Following today’s disappointing consumer spending data, we forecast that a downward revision to the Atlanta Fed’s most recent 1.0% Q1 GDP forecast was imminent…

Atlanta Fed to revise its Q1 GDP lower once more after Personal Consumption disappointment

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 31, 2017

… and moments later it did not disappoint, announcing that “the GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.9 percent on March 31, down from 1.0 percent on March 24.”

The catalyst was as expected: “after this morning’s personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the forecast for first-quarter real consumer spending growth fell from 1.4 percent to 0.8 percent. The forecast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.49 percentage points to -0.16 percentage points after Tuesday’s Advance Economic Indicators Report from the U.S. Census Bureau.”

Putting the move in context, the Atlanta Fed Q1 GDP has declinedfrom 3.4% in late January to below 1% two months later.

via http://ift.tt/2nDHDCB Tyler Durden

As University of Michigan’s Richard Curtin writes, “Democrats expect an imminent recession, higher unemployment, lower income gains, and more rapid inflation, while Republicans anticipate a new era of robust growth in incomes, job prospects, and lower inflation. It is a rare situation that combines increasing optimism, which promotes spending, and rising uncertainty which makes consumers more cautious spenders.”

While MoM UMich headline data improved modestly, it declined from intra-month levels and missed expectations as both current and future expectations slipped from preliminary data…

Expectations for higher incomes declined intra-month and timing for buying a home, car, or major appliance declined.

Curtin tries to explain the divergence…

“The high prevailing level of sentiment reflects the use of changed evaluative criteria.

 

Like economists who have lowered growth prospects, consumers have done the same, and have thus judged lower rates of growth more favorably than they would have in an earlier era.

 

Overall, the data indicate both rising optimism as well as rising uncertainty due to the partisan divide. The data indicate that real consumer spending will advance by 2.7% in 2017, but those gains will be uneven over time and across products.”

Meanwhile, inflation expectations slipped MoM (but gained modestly from preliminary record lows)

via http://ift.tt/2nDCPx0 Tyler Durden

With the market red on a Friday ahead of a new “merger Monday”, and the state of a new “mutual fund reallocation quarter”, something was due to snap, and sure enough moments ago TradeStateion announced that while equities and options trading is available, CME is down for futures trading.

It was not immediately clear if this was systemic, and exchanges would announce self-help against the CME momentarily, or is the result of a single busted data feed.

via http://ift.tt/2oGRNS0 Tyler Durden

The good news – another 'soft' survey data item inches to a new post-Trump high as Chicago PMI rises to 57.7 – highest since Jan 2015. However, the bad news is that exuberant hope is not translating into hard reality as the employment sub-index collapsed into contraction.

The 57.7 print beat expectations of a modest decline to 56.9, but the employment component crashed from 57.7 to 49.9 – into contraction.

Business barometer rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion

• Prices paid rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
• New orders rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
• Employment fell and the direction reversed, signaling contraction
• Inventories rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
• Supplier deliveries rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
• Production rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
• Order backlogs fell at a slower pace, signaling contraction
• Business activity has been positive for 12 months over the past year.

via http://ift.tt/2ogXJF2 Tyler Durden

The six year Syrian proxy war to dethrone president Bashar al Assad quietly ended with a whimper yesterday when at a news conference in the Turkish capital, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson suggested the end of Bashar Assad’s presidency is no longer a prerequisite for a way out of the Syrian crisis, in a dramatic U-turn from Washington’s long-held policy.

“I think the longer term status of President Assad will be decided by the Syrian people,” said Tillerson at a joint conference with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevut Cavusoglu on Thursday, AFP reported. Later, UN Ambassador Nikki Haley echoed Tillerson, saying “Our priority is no longer to sit and focus on getting Assad out.”

“You pick and choose your battles and when we’re looking at this, it’s about changing up priorities and our priority is no longer to sit there and focus on getting Assad out,” U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley told a small group of reporters.

 

“Do we think he’s a hindrance? Yes. Are we going to sit there and focus on getting him out? No,” she said. “What we are going to focus on is putting the pressure in there so that we can start to make a change in Syria.”

Under President Barack Obama, the United States made Assad’s departure one of its key objectives. The Syrian armed opposition also insisted upon the longtime leader’s resignation as one of the conditions during the Astana peace talks.

For those unaware, allowing the people of Syria to decide the fate of President Assad has been Russia’s stance since the conflict began. Moscow has repeatedly rebuffed any preconditions for Assad to step down before a political settlement of the crisis.

“The UN Security Council resolution and various decisions on Syria, adopted since 2012 with our proactive involvement, contain no demand or hint that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad must resign. On the contrary, they say that the people of Syria alone have a right to decide their future, and that the political process should involve all forces of Syrian society without exception, including ethnic, political forces, religious denominations and all opposition groups,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in a 2016 interview.

In other words, the entire proxy conflict, with thousands of lives lost, and millions of Syrian immigrants flooding Europe, has been for nothing.

Better yet, we have confirmation that Tillerson’s pivot was indeed groundbreaking courtesy of John McCain’s reaction. The Senate Armed Services Committee and prominent neocon said in a statement that “I am deeply disturbed by statements today by our Secretary of State and Ambassador to the United Nations regarding the future of Bashar al-Assad in Syria.”

McCain then slammed Tillerson, saying “Once again, U.S. policy in Syria is being presented piecemeal in press statements without any definition of success, let alone a realistic plan to achieve it.“

The angry neocon continued: “ultimately, the administration’s statements today could lead America’s true allies and partners in the fight against ISIS to fear the worst: a Faustian bargain with Assad and Putin sealed with an empty promise of counterterrorism cooperation. I hope President Trump will make clear that America will not follow this self-destructive and self-defeating path.”

He was not alone: Republican Sen. Lindsay Graham says if reports were accurate, “I fear it will be the biggest mistake since President Obama failed to act after drawing a red line against Assad’s use of chemical weapons.” He added that “This would be crushing news to the Syrian opposition and to our allies throughout the Middle East. I fear it is a grave mistake.”

With America’s two biggest neocons slamming Trump’s Syria reversal, it is safe to say that at least in this particular case, Trump made the right decision.

via http://ift.tt/2nSnhY6 Tyler Durden

It’s getting harder for the mainstream media and their asset-gathering sponsors to hide the reality of the post-Trump rally economic ‘improvement’ from investors’ eyes.

During a Bloomberg TV interview this morning, New York Fed President Bill Dudley admitted there’s “no rush to hike” as the “economy is clearly not overheating,” warning of the potential for Q1 weakness as “sentiment [improvements] are not showing up in the hard data yet.”

Indeed Mr. Dudley… and the ‘hard’ data has NEVER caught up to spiking sentiment…

Given his hawkishness yesterday and dovishness today, markets are reacting…

via http://ift.tt/2nSeXHU Tyler Durden

Credit Suisse has confirmed that the Swiss bank, some of its employees and hundreds of account holders are the subjects of a major tax evasion probe launched in UK, France, Australia, Germany and the Netherlands, setting back Swiss attempts to clean up its image as a haven for tax evaders.

According to Bloomberg, Dutch investigators seized jewellery, paintings and even gold bars as part of a sweeping investigation into tax evasion and money laundering in the Netherlands. They added that the sums involved amounted to “many millions” of lost tax revenue.

Doorzoekingen tijdens internationale actiedag in verband met onderzoek naar #zwartsparen bij een #Zwitsersebank: https://t.co/dhymVvlyHr. http://pic.twitter.com/VRha4rlTHb

— FIOD (@FIOD) March 31, 2017

Two individuals who were arrested on Thursday in connection with the raids were accused of concealing millions of euros from authorities by placing them, where else, in Swiss bank accounts, the Fiscal Information and Investigation Service said in a statement Friday. Criminal investigations are also underway in Australia, Germany, the U.K. and France.

The Swiss bank also said Friday that its offices in London, Paris and Amsterdam were raided Thursday by authorities in connection with client tax matters.

In a statement by the U.K. tax authority, it said it was investigating “senior employees” at a global financial institution. Australia’s Serious Financial Crime Taskforce said it had identified 346 of its citizens “with links to Swiss banking relationship managers alleged to have actively promoted and facilitated tax evasion schemes.”

While Credit Suisse said it was cooperating with the authorities, the investigations threatened an international row, with the Swiss public prosecutor expressing “astonishment” at the actions taken by Dutch authorities. The raids were done without informing authorities in Switzerland, the attorney general’s office in that country said in a statement. The Swiss aren’t conducting a criminal probe into the matter, a spokeswoman said.

According to the FT, statements by authorities in the UK and Netherlands did not mention Credit Suisse by name but suggested the inquiries were widespread with the potential to expand further.

The bank said it has “implemented Dutch and French voluntary tax disclosure programs and exited non-compliant clients,” and has applied a withholding tax agreement with the U.K. since 2013.

The latest tax crackdown takes place years after the second largest Swiss bank was hopeful it had put its tax-evasive days in the past.

To be sure, Credit Suisse was hit hard in the past over tax evasion allegations, and was fined $2.6 billion in the U.S. in 2014 and pleaded guilty to helping Americans evade taxes. The bank paid a 150 million-euro fine in Germany in 2011 to end court proceedings over allegations it helped clients evade taxes.

“The sheer volume of data and its international scope makes this an exceptional case,” said Thierry Boitelle, a lawyer with Bonnard Lawson in Geneva.

As Bloomberg adds, the investigations come as Credit Suisse begins implementing a new global standard for the automated exchange of information for its European locations. About 100 countries, or jurisdictions, including Switzerland, have agreed to collect data from banks to share annually with other tax authorities, making it harder for tax dodgers and money launderers to hide money with private banks.

Meanwhile, the Dutch public prosecutor’s office confirmed that authorities had received information on 55,000 people with accounts at a Swiss bank, including 3,800 Dutch people, spokeswoman Marieke van der Molen said. In the Netherlands, there are “dozens of suspects,” she said.

“The international reach of this investigation sends a clear message that there is no hiding place for those seeking to evade tax,” the U.K. authority said in its statement.

What is most confusing about this latest scandal, however, is that years after Obama launched an unprecedented crackdown on Swiss banking secrecy, effectively ending it, tens of thousands of clients still entrusted Swiss banks with their untaxed savings without concerns of confiscation. The other confusing aspect of this whole affair, namely that Europeans still save money at a time of negative interest rates, we will leave to the philosophers to debate.

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