Russia Foreign Minister Responds To Allegation It Is Behind DNC Hack: “I Don’t Want To Use Four-Letter Words”

Secretary of State John Kerry says he raised the email hack of the Democratic National Committee with Russia’s top diplomat but stopped short of making any allegation about who might be responsible.

According to CBS, Kerry told reporters Tuesday he brought the matter up with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov at a meeting in Laos and explained that the FBI was investigating. He did not, however, repeat allegations or echo suspicions that Russia was responsible for the hack and said he would not draw conclusions until the probe is complete. “I raised the question and we will continue to work to see precisely what those facts are,” Kerry said. He would not say if Lavrov responded

Earlier, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov responded to accusations that Russia was allegedly behind the DNC server hack, when he blasted a reporter over her question that Russia was behind the DNC email leaks. Lavrov had a concise reply, stating: “I don’t want to use four-letter words.”

He was speaking ahead of talks at the ASEAN summit in Laos.

This appears to be a denial of the accusations.

Cybersecurity experts and U.S. officials have said there is evidence that Russia engineered the release of the emails in order to influence the U.S. presidential election.

Earlier, the FBI said it was investigating a cyber intrusion at the DNC, adding that Russia is the leading suspect in the hack.

On Sunday, Clinton’s campaign manager, Robby Mook, claimed in an interview with CNN that “experts are telling us that Russian state actors broke into the DNC, stole these emails, and other experts are now saying that the Russians are releasing these emails for the purpose of actually helping Donald Trump.”

When asked what kind of evidence he had to back up that theory, Mook answered: “Well, we need the experts speak on this. It’s been reported on in the press that the hackers that got into the DNC are very likely to be working in coordination with Russia.”

Previously Trump also slammed the theory, saying that Clinton campaigners will say anything to be able to win. I mean this is time and time again, lie after lie. You notice he [Mook] won’t say, ‘Well, I say this.’ We hear ‘experts’. His house cat at home once said this is what’s happening with the Russians. It’s disgusting. It’s so phony,” he told CNN.

Neither the Clinton campaign, the White House, nor lawmakers briefed on the hack definitively linked the leak to the Russian government on Monday.

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The System Really Is Rigged: City Officials Bend Booze, Ridesharing Rules During DNC, RNC

During the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in Philadelphia this week, select watering holes are enjoying a reprieve from some of the state’s strict liquor laws and Uber X drivers are out and proud. 

For convention week, Philly bars, restaurants, hotels, and event spaces were allowed to apply for permits granting them the privilege to serve thirsty politicos until 4 a.m.—last call is usually 2 a.m. The DNC host committee negotiated this late-night privilege for local businesses, payed the one-time application fee, and helped the city’s Liquor Control Board review applications. At least 20 Philly venues were granted permission to stay open late. 

Contra the regular rules, venues will also be able to serve wine and spirits from non-state sources from July 25-28. Generally, they must purchases these from pricey state-run stores. The state said the rule change allows venues to serve alcohol that has been donated and for out-of-towners to host events featuring booze from their home states. 

Cleveland saw similar rule-bending when the Republican National Convention (RNC) came to town last week. More than 200 venues applied for a temporary extension of drinking hours from 2 a.m. until 4 a.m. These waivers were made possible by a January 2016 state law saying cities hosting “major events” could ask the Ohio Division of Liquor Control for a temporary out from the usual alcohol rules. For the RNC, individual businesses in and around Cleveland had to apply for extensions by March 21; those that were picked were vetted by local police and sheriff departments before having their info submitted to Liquor Control, which issued waivers in June.  

It’s not just booze getting a special dispensation during convention time. Earlier this month, Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf approved a bill allowing ridesharing companies like Uber and Lyft to operate in Philadelphia throughout the summer. Until recently, Uber X drivers could be found in Philly, but they were operating only semi-legally—city transit authorities even allegedly conducted stings on Uber X drivers

Pennsylvania lifted anti-ridesharing rules for Philadelphia just in time for the Democratic convention. Under the approval, companies must pay 1 percent of gross receipts from fares to the city Parking Authority, which will then turn over two-thirds of this money to Philadelphia schools.  

Kudos to Cleveland and Philadelphia for being adaptable and allowing temporary modifications that help convention-goers get around and get drunk. But if these cities can handle ridesharing and 4 a.m. last-calls at a time when tens-of-thousands of out-of-towners have descended, mightn’t they be able to handle them when the hubbub dies down, too? Of course, for the DNC and RNC, we have powerful interests pressuring officials to suspend their nanny-statism for the common good. At most other times, we see pressure going the other way, with taxi cartels, state liquor agencies, and others invested in the status quo. The situations in Cleveland and Philadelphia are a good reminder that when it comes to things like occupational licensing, zoning laws, liquor regulations, and the like, “protecting public health/safety/morals” is very often code for making sure the system is rigged in the right way. 

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Violence, Terrorism Trending Downward: New at Reason

The world continues to get safer.

Marian Tupy writes:

After the recent terror attacks in the United States and Western Europe, as well Iraq and Afghanistan, it would be easy to conclude that the world is becoming more dangerous. The politicians and media have contributed to our growing sense of unease. Donald Trump claims that crime is rising, while Hillary Clinton speaks of a gun violence epidemic. Both, as Nick Gillespie shows, are inaccurate. In reality, many kinds of violence have become less common.

In the United States, the homicide rate fluctuated between 6.2 and 10.2 deaths per 100,000 people between 1967 and 1998. The rate dropped below 6 per 100,000 in 1999 and below 5 per 100,000 in 2010. The U.S. homicide rate for 2014, the most recent year for which data is available, was 4.5 per 100,000—the lowest since 1963. That means that the U.S. homicide rate is now at a 51-year low! Trump and Clinton’s should take note.

View this article.

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USDJPY Plunges On Japan Stimulus Concerns; US Futures Flat With As Fed Begins Meeting

In a turbulent session for FX, the Yen soared as much as 1.4%, the most in three weeks, after Finance Minister Aso says the government will “leave actual policy measures to BOJ”, sending the Nikkei lower by 1.4%. European stocks and U.S. equity index futures are little changed despite the slide in the key carry pair as the Fed starts its two day meeting.

The GBP/USD sold off in early trading following an FT report that BOE’s
Weale favors immediate stimulus, however sterling rebound and erased all
losses in subsequent trading.

The Yen surged started following early press reports, subsequently confirmed by Japan’s finance minister that the government has yet to decide on a fiscal stimulus package, spurring traders to temper expectations. This takes place after aggressive jawboning in recent weeks that Japan may be on the cusp of unleashing helicopter money, with Aso effectively pouring cold water on expectations of a massive fiscal stimulus funded by the BOJ. The result was a plungein the Yen, which dropped to the lowest levels since the dramatic buying spree in the aftermath of Bernanke’s visit to Japan.

While economists predict the Bank of Japan will ease policy this week, Aso’s comments cast doubt over coordinated efforts by Japanese officials.

“Reports in the local media (Nikkei) and Aso’s comments suggest the Japanese fiscal stimulus package may fall well short of expectations, further dampening hopes of an aggressive, coordinated approach to easing in the near term,” says Sue Trinh, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

Bernard Aw, a strategist at IG Asia Pte, reiterated the concern: “Expectations of additional monetary and fiscal stimulus might have been tempered, especially when much was riding on Abe’s stimulus plan. We could also see the Fed trying to strike a balance between sounding upbeat about U.S. economic outlook and curbing exuberance about rate-hike hopes in September.”

“The market is cautious due to risk of policy disappointment,” said Neil Jones, head of hedge fund sales at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in London. “The BOJ may do nothing and the Fed may take on a more dovish angle.”

The Stoxx 600 dropped 0.2% in early trading, with volumes 31% below the 30-day average. BP lost 2.7%, down from a one-month high, led by energy shares after BP Plc reported profit that missed estimates.  Lenders declined with Commerzbank AG down 6.1 percent after saying a key measure of financial strength dropped in the second quarter. Italian banks fell, taking the national FTSE MIB Index to the biggest slide among western-European markets, before regulators publish their latest health check on the region’s largest banks on July 29. “We’ve pushed equities up an awful long way over the last few weeks, more than most people had expected,” said Peter Dixon, global equities economist at Commerzbank AG in London. “We are hanging around waiting for something to give us a lift.”

In the U.S., traders have boosted bets the Federal Reserve will raise
rates this year, even though they are likely to keep them on hold
Wednesday.  S&P 500 futures were basically unchanged, down 0.1% after falling Monday
from last week’s record-high close. Gilead Sciences Inc. fell 4.4
percent in early New York trading after cutting its annual product sales forecast and reporting lower-than-expected sales in the second quarter for its hepatitis C drugs.

Yields on 10-year Treasury notes fell for the first time in three days, sliding three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 1.55 percent. In Germany, yields on similar-maturity debt fell for a fourth day, dropping one basis point to minus 0.05 percent. U.K. gilts also rose, with the 10-year yield falling three basis points to 0.78 percent.

In commodities, the story remained one of oil weakness as crude fell to a three-month low in New York as supplies were considered to be plentiful even as stockpiles were seen deepening a record pullback in the U.S., the biggest fuel consumer. West Texas Intermediate fell 0.6 percent to $42.87 a barrel and Brent slid 0.3 percent to $44.61. While U.S. crude inventories probably slid by 2.25 million barrels, gasoline supplies are seen increasing by 600,000 barrels, swelling stockpiles that are also at the highest in decades, according to a Bloomberg survey before an Energy Information Administration report Wednesday.

Verizon
Communications Inc., McDonald’s Corp. and Apple Inc. are among 45
companies in the S&P 500 reporting earnings on Tuesday. Profits and
sales have broadly topped projections so far this season, and analysts
have eased their estimates for declines in net income, expecting a 4.5
percent slide for the second quarter for S&P 500 members.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down less than 0.1% to 2162
  • Stoxx 600 down less than 0.1% to 341
  • FTSE 100 up 0.3% to 6729
  • DAX up 0.1% to 10213
  • German 10Yr yield down less than 1bp to -0.05%
  • Italian 10Yr yield up less than 1bp to 1.24%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield unchanged at 1.11%
  • S&P GSCI Index down 0.3% to 344
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.4% to 135
  • Nikkei 225 down 1.4% to 16383
  • Hang Seng up 0.6% to 22130
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.1% to 3050
  • S&P/ASX 200 up less than 0.1% to 5537
  • U.S. 10-yr yield down 3bps to 1.54%
  • Dollar Index down 0.35% to 96.95
  • WTI Crude futures down 0.7% to $42.84
  • Brent Futures down 0.4% to $44.55
  • Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,322
  • Silver spot up 0.7% to $19.69

Top Global News

  • BP Profit Sinks as Lower Oil, Weak Refining Strain Industry: refining margins were lowest for 2Q since 2010; 3Q oil and gas output will fall amid maintenance
  • AB InBev Sweetens Its Offer for SABMiller to $103b: cash bid for British brewer raised to GBP45/share
  • Gilead Lowers 2016 Net Product Sales Forecast; Shares Slide: cut net product sales forecast for 2016 to $29.5b-$30.5b, vs previous forecast of $30b-$31b
  • Celgene Sinks as Drug Doesn’t Extend Life in Blood Cancer Type: co. said Phase 3 “Remarc” study doesn’t show survival benefit
  • Sanders Backs Clinton After Fractious Opening of Convention
  • Fed Said Preparing Action vs Goldman on Leak Case, N.Y. Times says: Goldman expected to pay a financial penalty to settle the case, NYT says, citing people familiar
  • Nidec Said to Be Frontrunner for Emerson’s $1b Motor Unit: Broad Ocean, Wolong Electric had also expressed interest
  • Texas Instruments Earnings, Forecasts Beat Views on Auto Demand: 3Q net income seen 81c-91c/share
  • Amazon Partners With U.K. Government to Test Delivery by Drone: trial to test beyond line-of-sight, and obstacle avoidance

* * *

Looking at regional markets, Asian stocks traded with mixed following the weak lead from Wall Street, where energy declines dampened sentiment, with participants also cautious ahead of the looming FOMC. ASX 200 (-0.1%) was led lower by energy names after WTI crude futures fell over a buck to test the USD 43/bbl level to the downside, while Nikkei 225 (-1.4%) underperformed on a firmer JPY in which USD/JPY fell below the 105.00 handle. Elsewhere, Chinese markets led the region with the Shanghai Comp (+1.1 %) positive following another firm liquidity injection by the PBoC. 10yr JGBs traded higher amid risk averse sentiment in Japan, with further support seen following the 40yr JGB auction which despite printing a lower bid/cover, the lowest accepted price was higher and the portion of allotted bids at the lowest price was less than previous. Japan is to double planned spending in their stimulus package, with direct fiscal outlays now planned at JPY 6tln over the next few years, although this number is shy of the JPY 20tln speculated in the past few days. Japan Finance Minister Aso stated they still have to determine the size of the economic stimulus package.

Top Asian News

  • Japan Fiscal Plan Calls for Continued Cooperation With BOJ: Finance chief urges BOJ to keep doing its utmost on inflation
  • Yen Rallies as Optimism on Stimulus Wanes, Undercutting Dollar: Global risk aversion seen boosting yen versus all major peers
  • Singapore Banks Facing Earnings Stumble as Bad Loans, Sibor Bite: Largest lenders may boost provisions for nonperforming loans
  • Hyundai Posts 10th Consecutive Profit Decline on China Discounts: Domestic plant exports slump on Africa, Middle East markets
  • Casino Tycoon Adelson Sees Signs of Macau Gaming Turnaround: Mass-market monthly revenue rises for first time since 2014
  • HSBC Bullish on India as a Third of World’s Bond Yields Negative: Expect inflation to come off going forward, Rodrigues writes

The latest state of play across European equities (Euro Stoxx: -0.2%) has been dictated by the downside across the oil complex in which WTI crude has slipped past USD 43.00 with Brent at the lowest since May 10, subsequently adding to the risk off sentiment. As such, energy names are among the worst performers today, exacerbated by BP’s earnings (-2.7%). In terms of sectors, weakness has been seen in financials with Commerzbank (-5.8%) prelim Q2 results coming in weaker than expected. The softness in equities contributed to upside in fixed income markets, while notable outperformance has been observed in Gilts relative to its German and US counterparts in the wake of reports from BoE’s Weale who urged the need of immediate stimulus after last week’s poor Brexit exposed PMI figures.

Top European News

  • Commerzbank Says Capital Ratio Falls on Operational Risk: banks see litigation risk increasing capital requirements
  • BOE’s Weale Says Stimulus More Likely After Slowdown Signs Mount: Weale tells FT that weak PMI are ‘very material’ for decision
  • Michelin’s Cost-Cut Plan Helps Push 1H Profit Up 11%: Chinese market will probably remain “buoyant,” Michelin says
  • Vivendi Backs Out of Deal to Buy Berlusconi’s Pay-TV Business: Vivendi wants 20% of Mediaset Premium instead of full control
    Orange Earnings Cushioned by Broadband Sales Amid Mobile Rivalry
  • Raiffeisen Owner to Sell Insurer Stake Amid Capital Revamp
  • Man Group Assets Shrink in Second Quarter on Investment Losses

In FX, the yen strengthened 1.4 percent to 104.33 per dollar, extending a 0.3 percent climb from last session. The rebound comes after the currency weakened to a one-month low of 107.49 on July 21. “The yen’s recent weakness against the dollar has been based on the idea that both the government and the BOJ would come up with measures to stimulate the economy,” said Takuya Iwasaki, executive general manager of foreign-exchange sales at Bank of America in Tokyo. “What Aso said may have reduced expectations for action from the BOJ a bit.”  The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slid 0.4 percent, falling from the highest close since May. The Aussie and kiwi rose at least 0.7 percent versus the U.S. currency, while the euro added 0.1 percent. Sterling fell 0.3 percent to 83.96 pence per euro and 0.2 percent to $1.3120. Martin Weale, an independent member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, told the Financial Times that Brexit has rattled the economy more than he anticipated and indicated he now favors immediate stimulus.

In Commodities, oil fell to a three-month low in New York as supplies were considered to be plentiful even as stockpiles were seen deepening a record pullback in the U.S., the biggest fuel consumer. West Texas Intermediate fell 0.6 percent to $42.87 a barrel and Brent slid 0.3 percent to $44.61. While U.S. crude inventories probably slid by 2.25 million barrels, gasoline supplies are seen increasing by 600,000 barrels, swelling stockpiles that are also at the highest in decades, according to a Bloomberg survey before an Energy Information Administration report Wednesday. Gold climbed as investors scaled back expectations for extra stimulus from Japan’s government, boosting the yen and weakening the dollar. Bullion for immediate delivery rose 0.5 percent to $1.3222.55 an ounce, after losing 1.2 percent in two days. Copper fell 0.5 percent as Chinese smelters expanded production amid improving margins, exacerbating global oversupply. Nickel lost 1.9 percent and zinc dropped 1.3 percent.

* * *

Bulletin Headline Summary From RanSquawk and Bloomberg

  • JPY briefly tests the 104.00 level with sentiment dampened by the decline across the energy complex.
  • GBP sees some reprieve with the currency initially pressured by dovish comments from BoE’s Weale.
  • Highlights include US Services PMI, New Home Sales, API Crude Inventory and earnings updates from Apple, McDonald’s, and Verizon.
  • Treasuries higher in overnight trading as global equities mixed; Treasury auctions continue with sale of $34b 5Y notes, WI 1.14%; last sold at 1.218% in June, lowest 5Y auction stop since 1.169% in February.
  • Most private economists anticipate that Japan will implement a double dose of stimulus, with an acceleration in monetary expansion by Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and his colleagues on July 29, and the much-discussed government package that could be enacted by parliament in October
  • Decent risk-off trade overnight in Tokyo was led by reports of weaker stimulus package of ¥6t rather than the ¥30t rumored last week, according to Tom di Galoma, managing director of government trading and strategy at Seaport Global
  • Yield-starved investors from around the world are starting to pile up at the doors of Wall Street’s corporate-debt underwriters as bonds sold by blue-chip U.S. companies are among the few offering decent returns
  • With the recession putting a dent into tax receipts, Argentina is reviving a bond market rocked by data-rigging allegations more than a decade ago and sold 8.2 billion pesos ($548 million) of inflation-linked notes
  • Bank of England policy maker Martin Weale said Brexit has rattled the economy more than he anticipated and indicated he now favors immediate stimulus after saying last week he needed to see more evidence of a deterioration
  • Venezuela’s gold reserves are shrinking and fell again in May, sliding to 6.24 million ounces from 6.63 million ounces in April to post a fourth consecutive drop. Over the past year, the country’s hoard has shrunk 36%, and since February 2015 it’s nearly halved

US Event Calendar

  • 8:55am: Redbook weekly sales
  • 9am: S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI M/m, May (prior 0.07%)
  • 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, July P, est. 52.0 (prior 51.4)
  • 10am: Consumer Confidence Index, July, est. 96 (prior 98)
  • 10am: Richmond Fed Mfg Index, July, est. -5 (prior -7)
  • 10am: New Home Sales, June, est. 560k (prior 551k)
  • 4:30pm: API weekly oil inventories

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Ahead of a packed, albeit back-loaded calendar of events this week which includes the BoJ and Fed meetings, European bank stress tests, a slew of corporate earnings and US Q2 GDP, the last 24 hours or so in markets has been pretty quiet with yesterday’s session feeling like investors were for the most part keeping the powder dry. Wall Street did start the week on a bit of a cautious note although that was largely to do with the decent leg down for Oil which generally dominated what was otherwise a real lull in newsflow. Indeed WTI finished -2.40% lower yesterday at $43.13/bbl and at one stage briefly traded with a $42/bbl handle. It’s flown under the radar a bit but yesterday was actually the lowest closing level for WTI since April 25th. In fact after making YTD highs back in early June at just shy of $52/bbl, Oil has now fallen some 16% since with a decent amount of that coming in the last three weeks or so. Some of the commentary pointed towards the latest rig count data which came out on Friday showing that the number of active rigs rose for the fourth consecutive week. The fallout in recent weeks however appears to be a reflection of the rising gasoline stockpiles which is weighing on the wider energy complex.

Unsurprisingly then it was energy stocks which were hit hardest and resulted in the S&P 500 (-0.30%) and Dow (-0.42%) retreating from their respective record levels. In fact despite intraday moves being pretty modest of late, the S&P 500 has now reversed direction day-to-day for the last eight sessions and it seems that the big post-Brexit rally has run out of steam for now. Prior to this in Europe the Stoxx 600 (+0.18%) actually edged up a little although peripheral bourses and the FTSE MIB (-0.52%) in particular closed in the red with Italian banks under pressure once again following reports in the Italian press over the weekend that Monte Paschi is ‘most at risk’ ahead of Friday’s stress test results – although this didn’t feel like any great surprise.

Meanwhile credit markets were also under pressure yesterday, most notably in the US given the greater energy exposure with CDX IG ending the day nearly 3bps wider and so making it the weakest day this month. Staying with credit, yesterday the ECB released its latest CSPP holdings data which showed total holdings of €11.85bn at 22nd July. This implies net purchases settled last week of €1.42bn or an average daily run rate over the five days of €284m. The average daily run rate since the CSPP started is €382m so this is the first bit of evidence we’ve seen of a slowdown in the numbers as markets and the ECB move into wind-down mode for the summer.

As you’ll see at the end in the day ahead there should be a bit more for markets to feed on today. Most notable is the bumper day for corporate earnings releases with 48 S&P 500 companies due to report. As a barometer of global growth it’s worth keeping an eye on the Caterpillar numbers prior to the US open. Verizon and McDonald’s earnings will also be out early and then after the bell it’ll be all eyes on Apple where the market consensus for Q3 EPS is $1.39 which has been roughly unchanged over the last couple of months but is down from as high as $1.77 back in April.

Before we get there, this morning in Asia it’s been another fairly mixed start to trading. Losses are being led out of Japan where the Nikkei and Topix are currently -1.55% and -1.54% respectively. A rally for the Yen (+0.9%) seemingly is weighing on those bourses. Meanwhile our Japan economists noted this morning that the Nikkei newspaper has reported that the size of the forthcoming second supplementary budget for FY2016 was said to be around ¥2tn, lower than their current view of ¥3-4tn. The newspaper is also reporting that another ¥4tn is likely to be added to the initial budgets for FY2017 onward, in addition to the aforementioned ¥2tn for the FY2016 supplementary budget. Our colleagues are not sure if these expenditures worth ¥4tn are a true addition relative to the initial FY2016 budget or if they are being brought into the package to simply inflate its size – they guess the latter. The newspaper is still talking about the total size of the stimulus package, which could be announced as soon as August 2nd, as exceeding ¥20tn.

Elsewhere in Asia this morning, bourses in China are firmer with the Shanghai Comp currently +0.49%. The Hang Seng is also +0.86% while the Kospi is +0.40%. The ASX (-0.23%) is in the red however. US equity index futures are modestly higher currently and oil markets are a touch firmer.

Moving on. There was a little bit of data out yesterday for us to digest and most notable of that was the Germany IFO survey which, in line with Friday’s PMI’s, showed a similar level of post-Brexit resilience. The headline reading of 108.3 was down 0.4pts from June, although came in a reasonable way ahead of the 107.5 expected by the market. Meanwhile the current assessment reading actually rose 0.1pts to 114.7 (vs. 114.0 expected) which is the best reading since August last year, while the expectations component was down 0.9pts to 102.2 (although still ahead of expectations of 101.6). This data contrasts which the latest CBI business optimism reading in the UK which was released yesterday. The July print tumbled 42pts to -47 (vs. -15 expected) and therefore the lowest reading since January 2009 (when it got to -64).

Across the pond the only data yesterday came in the form of the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey which rose 17pts to -1.3 (vs. -10.0 expected) and the highest level since December 2014. New orders, production and employment components all rose encouragingly. It’s worth noting that the two main US economic surprise indices are now back to the highest level since December 2014 following a huge spike in positive data surprises this month. Benchmark 10y Treasuries didn’t react too much to the data yesterday and eventually finished little changed around 1.574%, although the shorter end of the curve was under pressure with 2y yields closing 3bps higher at 0.735%. This appeared to be more of a reflection of the weak 2y auction yesterday though where the bid-to-cover ratio was the weakest since December 2008 at a 2y offering.

Looking at today’s calendar it’s a pretty quiet start in Europe this morning with no real notable data to highlight. This afternoon in the US there’s a number of releases due out. The most notable of those will likely be the July consumer confidence print which the market is expecting to decline 2pts to 96. Also due out will be the remaining flash PMI’s for this month (services and composite), the Richmond Fed manufacturing survey, new home sales for June and the S&P/Case-Shiller house price index. The first day of the two-day FOMC meeting of course also starts today. As mentioned it’s a bumper day for earnings which should provide most of the excitement. Before the opening bell we’ll get quarterly reports from the likes of Caterpillar, Verizon, McDonald’s and 3M and then after the closing bell rings it’ll be all eyes on those Apple numbers. In total we’ll get 48 S&P 500 company earnings reports. Over in Europe BP highlights the earnings calendar.

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2 Hostage Takers Killed After “Beheading” Priest In Assault On French Church

In the latest European assault to take place just over the past hour, two knifemen raided the Church of the Gambetta in the northern French town of Saint-Etienne-du-Rouvray, taking between 4 and 6 hostages and allegedly killing a priest before being killed by police. According to subsequent unconfirmed reports the priest had been beheaded.

Another worshipper is said to have been seriously wounded.

Both attackers have been killed by police, an interior ministry spokesman confirmed to Reuters. The Paris anti-terrorist prosecutor is launching an investigation into the church attack and hostage-taking situation, the spokesman added

 

One resident was walking to church as the horror broke out. He told French newspaper MetroNews: “I was going to go out and do my shopping when the police started shouting me to go straight home and barricade myself.

“There is a lot of agitation, the police are bulletproof vest and armed.”

Le Point further reports that the hostage takes shouted “Daesh” (ISIS) while entering the chruch, suggesting they may have been Islamic radicals.

Firefighters, along with SWAT and anti-terror units, came to the scene, and said that there were several people wounded in the attack, RTL France media outlet said.

French President Francois Hollande is on his way to the site of the attack, according to an official statement from Elysee Palace. Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve is also headed to the scene of the hostage-taking, the ministry said.

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Islam Vs The West – Has A Neo-‘Operation Gladio’ Been Started?

Via The Daily Bell,

How should France answer to the horror in Nice? The country is now deeply entrenched in a long-term war with few hopes of dodging future attacks. The anger of the French population is understandable. But booing a prime minister at the commemoration ceremony for the loss of innocent lives is not the smartest idea.   No intelligence service could have prevented the Nice attack as nothing in the profile of the lunatic who drove over 84 people could have suggested a potential link to terrorism. – Al Jazeera

We’ve been writing regularly about the meme of “evil Islam” and our perspective that it is propaganda – a dominant social theme – intended to create military tension, further authoritarianism and even, eventually, wider wars setting the West against Islam.

You can see our articles HERE and HERE And HERE too.

The lie is that Islam of itself is a terrible threat to the French – and Western – way of life.

The lies are propagated by a tiny group of people who organize fallacious themes that then become Western policy.

Global warming, the economics of central bank – and the dangers of Islam – are all examples of these themes.

The lies are regularly expanded and deepened.

Here is a famous recent quote by the Direction générale de la sécurité intérieure – Patrick Calvar:

 “We are on the verge of a civil war.”

Calvar is actually describing a war that he likely wants. The whole idea of the Evil Islam exercise is to polarize Europe in preparation for increased globalist solutions.

More from Al Jazeera:

The anger of the French population is understandable. But booing a prime minister at the commemoration ceremony for the loss of innocent lives is not the smartest idea.

If the French were booing the prime minister because they understood the manipulations taking place, that would be a positive development.

But no doubt the French in question were booing because they believed the state had not taken a firm enough stance against “radical Islam.”

Unfortunately, it is the state that has created the problem, starting with the forcible absorption of Algeria that later gave rise to the Algerian War of Independence, (1954–62).

This war was a bitter one and many of the “Muslims” in France are from Algeria. They still don’t like the French establishment.

The antipathy that French Algerian Muslims harbor has been used by the mainstream media as evidence that Muslims cannot be absorbed into France.

The “Islam versus the West” meme is filled with lies.

There are as many questions about the Paris attack in France as the one in Nice.

When it comes to the recent horrible attack in Nice, photos and videos seem to show no blood on the truck. Go look on the Internet for yourself.

Every large terror incident in France has had significant questions attached. Just as in the US, evidence is easily presented that these attacks are not what they seem.

It is no doubt difficult to accept that evil forces are manipulating events in Europe and the US so as to cause tension between Islam and the West.

But this is how wars are manufactured. The West did the same sort of thing to Japan. It demonized Japan  and then created a war .

And twice with Germany. In the past years it is has been revealed conclusively that banks and Western industry funded Hitler.

In much of the post-war 20th century period, the CIA and other intel agencies prosecuted Operation Gladio, which manufactured terror incidents purportedly generated by left-wing forces.

HERE, from TruthMove:

The main function of the Gladio-style groups, in the absence of Soviet invasion, seems to have been to discredit left-wing groups and politicians through the use of “the strategy of tension,” including false-flag terrorism.

 

The strategy of tension is a concept for control and manipulation of public opinion through the use of fear, propaganda, agents provacateurs, terrorism, etc. The aim was to instill fear into the populace while framing communist and left-wing political opponents for terrorist atrocities.

Has a neo-Operation Gladio been started?

The CIA doesn’t make announcements. But in the Internet era, it doesn’t have to.

Those running these affiliated intel operations may not like it but the pattern is increasingly obvious. This is surely an ongoing strategy not a series of incidents. How cold-blooded.

Ironically, the Al Jazeera editorial provides us with some pertinent conclusions on how to face the provocations of a neo-Operation Gladio.

Here:

The only option for France today is to stand proud on its secular republican values, multiply the satire that fundamentalists want to shut down, encourage societal inclusion, educate and educate again.

 

A turn to the extreme right would mean a victory for the terrorists.

 

However painful it is, the best way to prevail for the French is to stand strong and resist the populist temptations.

The editorial is written by  Remi Piet, an assistant professor of public policy, diplomacy and international political economy at Qatar University.

Two issues with it:

The first thing he does not mention is that the acts of terror are the historical result of French government policies. These policies go back a long ways.

 

The French bullied Algeria, absorbed Algerian Muslims and then did not give them the opportunity to integrate.

 

The upshot is a generation of Muslim Algerians that live in France and are bitter about their treatment.

 

The second problem is that the issue is not one of Islamic terrorism from a historical standpoint so much as the French state being complicit in “false flag” terrorist operations.

 

Today’s “Evil Islam” meme is being created by forces that want to foster tensions and then worse between Islam and the West.

 

The French should stand up to their government and demand accountability. But the accountability should involve a confession that “radical Islam” is being advanced by forces affiliated with the government.

The REAL problem, therefore, is not how to defend against radical Islam but how to prevent the French government and broader Western facilities and associates from creating bloody false flags designed to increase tensions.

Conclusion: The French should confront their own government and other European populations should do the same. That goes for America, too. People should demand answers and call on the mainstream media to do its job instead of remaining complicit in an unpublicized but evident neo-Gladio program.

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Brickbat: Rough Crowd

Mike WardQuebec’s Human Rights Council has ordered comedian Mike Ward to pay $35,000 to a singer he made jokes about in his standup act. Jeremy Gabriel has a condition which causes facial deformities. Ward joked he defended Gabriel’s poor performance when singing before the Pope Benedict XVI because he thought he was dying only to find out he was not. The court ruled Ward’s remarks infringed on Gabriel’s rights to “dignity, honor and reputation.”

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“Credible Evidence” Shows Turkish Authorities Raped And Tortured Detainees Since ‘Failed’ Coup

Via MiddleEastEye.net,

Human rights group Amnesty International said on Sunday it had "credible evidence" of abuse and torture of people detained in sweeping arrests since Turkey's 15 July attempted military coup.

The London-based group said some of those being held were being "subjected to beatings and torture, including rape, in official and unofficial detention centres in the country".

Amnesty said more than 10,000 people have been detained since the attempted coup, and the group called for independent monitors to be granted access to detention sites across Turkey.

Amnesty raised serious allegations of mistreatment against Turkish police, who they said have held detainees in “stress positions, denied them food, water and medical treatment, verbally abused and threatened them, and subjected them to beatings and torture, including rape and sexual assault”.

Two lawyers working in the capital Ankara on behalf of detainees told Amnesty they witnessed “senior military officers in detention being raped with a truncheon or finger by police officers”.

Another source told Amnesty between 650 and 800 soldiers have been detained at the Ankara police headquarters sports hall. The source said “at least 300 of the detainees showed signs of having been beaten”.

“Reports of abuse including beatings and rape in detention are extremely alarming, especially given the scale of detentions that we have seen in the past week. The grim details that we have documented are just a snapshot of the abuses that might be happening in places of detention,” said Amnesty International’s Europe director John Dalhuisen.

"It is absolutely imperative that the Turkish authorities halt these abhorrent practices and allow international monitors to visit all these detainees in the places they are being held.”

A Turkish official, who asked to remain anonymous, told MEE that the government rejects Amnesty's allegations of mistreating detainees.

"We categorically deny the allegations and encourage advocacy groups to provide an unbiased account of the legal steps that are being taken against people who murdered nearly 250 civilians in cold blood," the official said.

 

"The idea that Turkey, a country seeking EU membership, would not respect the law is absurd. Just yesterday we released 1,200 military personnel because all we care about is concrete evidence of complicity in this grave assault against our democracy."

Since the failed coup, a total of 13,165 people have been detained, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said late on Saturday.

This included 8,838 soldiers, 2,101 judges and prosecutors, 1,485 police officers and 689 civilians.

At least 123 generals and admirals have also been jailed, Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said.

Amnesty said that while Turkey has legitimate security concerns in light of the attempted coup, abuses of human rights are never acceptable. 

"Turkey is understandably concerned with public security at the moment, but no circumstances can ever justify torture and other ill-treatment or arbitrary detention," Dalhuisen said.

Speaking at a unity rally held in Istanbul on Sunday evening, opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu told huge crowds of people from across the Turkish political spectrum that mistreatment of detainees "shouldn't be allowed".

The leader of the centre-left CHP said, without specifically mentioning the Amnesty report: "The state cannot be run based on hate and vengeance. The rule of law needs to prevail. Torture, pressure in response will put state and putschists on same page and shouldn’t be allowed."

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