Gary Johnson on Foreign Policy & War: We Need to Involve Congress in Decisions

Gary JohnsonLibertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson appeared on PBS’ NewsHour this afternoon to answer questions about libertarianism and his candidacy from Judy Woodruff.

Asked whether he’d join NATO if Russia’s Vladimir Putin “were to go into a country in Eastern Europe,” Johnson pointed out the U.S. was involved in “many treaties with foreign countries where we are obligated to defend the border,” but that these treaties weren’t ratified by Congress.

While the North Atlantic Treaty that established NATO was ratified by the U.S. Senate, Johnson’s broader point about Congressional involvement stands. “We need to involve Congress in all of these [foreign policy] decisions that they’ve abdicated to the executive and the military,” Johnson insisted to Woodruff.

Johnson, who has called himself a “skeptic” of intervention, and whom Woodruff called a “non-interventionist but not an isolationist,” is poised to enable Congress to reassert its role in foreign policy decision making, and specifically the decisions to go to war. Members of Congress should consider Johnson’s stance whether or not he gets elected—a Congress that takes its responsibility in the war decision making process seriously is critical in a potential Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump presidency, presidencies that would largely be driven by cults of personality and the idea of an imperial presidency.

In response to the Putin question, Johnson also insisted that as president he would “avoid drawing lines in the sand,” pointing out that President Obama often drew lines in the sand and then allowed them to be crossed, weakening U.S. foreign policy.

Woodruff pressed Johnson to find something about Hillary Clinton that would warrant the kind of criticism Johnson’s vice presidential running mate, Bill Weld, levied at Trump, comparing his immigration plan to Nazi policies that led to the Holocaust. “I believe that Hillary Clinton is going to grow government, that government is all about giving out things,” Johnson said. “Nothing is free, somebody pays for that.” Eventually, Johnson landed on the foreign policy criticism, calling Clinton “a primary architect of our foreign policy, which has made the world less safe.” For all of Trump’s rhetoric, Clinton is the one with blood on her hands already, a point that could be useful for Johnson to make between now and November as he tries to peel votes away from both sides.

On the domestic front, Johnson insisted he would not phase out Social Security, saying it was “absolutely fixable.” He also rejected questions by Woodruff about issues like seatbelt laws (he says he wears them) and texting while driving laws, pointing out those issues were for local and state governments. Asked about food safety, he said that his proposal for a 20 percent reduction in federal spending was “not the end of the world” and that he’d welcome any legislation from Congress that shrunk the role of government, while insisting government existed to protect people against government, corporations, and other entities. He also called on eliminating the income tax and corporate taxes and replacing them with a federal consumption tax. Abolishing the corporate tax, he said, would lead to the creation of tens of millions of jobs.

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Peak Facebook? New Study Finds Social Media App Usage Tumbles Across The Globe

While Facebook’s stratospheric ascent to new record highs continues, storm clouds may be gathering for the $340 billion market cap company: according to a new study by marketing intelligence firm Across the board, people are spending less time on their Social Media apps. Using SimilarWeb data on Android apps, the company looked at data from the U.S, UK, Germany, Spain, Australia, India, South Africa, Brazil and Spain and compared app data from Q1 2015 to Q1 2016, and found that in almost all countries, time spent on the 4 leading Social Media apps is down. On Facebook, Snapchat, Instagram, and Twitter, Android users seem to be cutting down on their Social Media app usage time.

According to the study, in very few cases, such as Facebook’s usage in Spain did time spent within an app rise. In some cases, the drop was minimal, with Snapchat usage in Brazil dropping from 11.23 minutes to 11.10 minutes. However, in other cases, the drop was more substantial, such as time spent on Twitter in France. Over Q1 2015, the average in France was 19.80 minutes and in Q1 2016, that number dropped to 13.12, a drop of 34%.

Facebook’s Instagram saw the biggest year-over-year drop: usage was down 23.7% this year, closely followed by Twitter (down 23.4%), Snapchat (down 15.7%), and Facebook, while down the least, still saw a notable 8% decline in usage. In the U.S., where social media continue to rake in the highest CPMs and where revenue remains highest,  Instagram use was also down the most, or 36.2%, Twitter was down 27.9%, Snapchat was down 19.2% and Facebook fell 6.7%.

Still, despite this drop, Facebook users in the U.S. continued to spend the most time using the app: 45 minutes and 29 seconds every day on average. On the other end, Facebook users in India used the app the least, spending on average 22 minutes and 59 seconds daily.

The results are shown below.

 

As CNBC adds, across all four apps, users spent the least time using Twitter. Spanish users spent the most time using the app (13 minutes and 31 seconds daily), closely followed by Americans (13 minutes and 30 seconds) and the French (13 minutes and 7 seconds). This was despite overall declines in usage across these geographies.

Aside from time spent on Social Media apps, Current Installs were also mostly down when comparing March 2015 to March 2016. On all 4 social apps in the 9 countries examined, installs were down an average of 9%. This drop in installs was most prominent with Snapchat users in South Africa, where installs dropped 56% from March to March.

The highest increase on installs was also for Snapchat, this time in Brazil. Installs on snapchat rose 22% from March to March. Snapchat installs also increased in Germany, Spain, and India, with India showing a growth of 18%. Instagram also saw a rise in installs in several countries including France, Germany, and the US. Instagram’s biggest loss, however, came in India where the app dropped from being installed on 32% of Android devices to 19%.

Current Installs of Facebook in the US declined by 5% in March 2016 compared to the previous year. 

While still early to make a conclusive argument that the peak of social media apps has come and gone, the trend is certainly troubling, if not so much for Twitter whose stock has been pounded this year on ongoing concerns about the company’s growth, then certainly for Facebook, up 14% this year, which many have assumed is emerging as the winner in the social media wars. Throw in ongoing declines in retailer revenues and margin compression and suddenly the ad-spending plans for this most generous group of Facebook clients become disturbingly opaque.

Source

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Goldman Fires Ex-Porn Star Over… Ethics?

If any of the quarter million students and graduates who applied for jobs this summer with Goldman Sachs have made an 'adult' movie in the past, we recommend having a plan B.

Goldman Sachs terminated an informal employment agreement with a woman after the firm found out she went by the name of "Shizuka Minamoto" in her "film" days prior to applying to Goldman according to Tokyo Reporter. Minamoto appeared in numerous adult films during her first and second years of college, and each DVD that was made touted Minamoto's intelligence, noting on the cover that she has an IQ of 130. Apparently that IQ was good enough to land a job offer from a Goldman Sachs branch in Japan, albeit briefly.

As Minamoto began job hunting, she was nervous about her prior endeavors and sent cease and desist orders to the video sites that were illegally uploading her films to try and minimize who would be viewing them. However, the ex-porn star got caught when someone called Goldman and pointed out Minamoto's past.

A representative from Goldman Sachs Japan said the company "was reluctant" to offer comment on the matter. However, a person with knowledge of the case said that as a result of a close examination of Minamoto's history, "the results revealed a violation of rules of employment regarding one's private life. That led to the cancellation of the job offer. So it does not seem the termination was directly connected to the adult video appearances."

* * *

First of all, Goldman has rules of employment regarding one's private life – as in ethical rules? Because if that's the case the firm may as well shut its doors in the morning. Secondly, it would seem Goldman would want someone of Minamoto's background on staff – imagine the deals that would get done if Minamoto was on the deal team and there was ever a need to break the ice in the room.

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The Natural Gas Market has Broken Out (Video)

By EconMatters

 

Bloomberg`s interview with GE Power`s CEO discusses the importance of Natural Gas in the Power Generation Market which happens to correspond nicely with a recent breakout in the Futures Market for NG.

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“Do I Have A Problem With That, Ya I Do” – Sanders Slams Hillary’s Clinton Foundation Conflict Of Interest

We have pointed out on numerous occasions that the Clinton Foundation has had some sketchy dealings to say the least (recently here & here).

In an interview with Jake Tapper, Bernie Sanders also said he has a problem with the foundation – the senator continues to hammer Hillary as he simply refuses to give up on his bid for Democratic presidential nominee.

"You asked me about the Clinton Foundation, do I have a problem when a sitting secretary of State and a foundation run by her husband collects many millions of dollars from foreign governments, governments which are dictatorships, you don't have a lot of civil liberties or democratic rights in Saudi Arabia. You don't have a lot of respect there for gay rights, for women's rights – do I have a problem with that, ya I do"

When Tapper asked if it creates a conflict of interest Sanders quickly responded with "ya I do, I do"

The Clinton Foundation has received donations from countries including Saudi Arabia, which has given between $10 million and $25 million to the foundation since it was created through 2014, although it allegedly stopped donating when Hillary was secretary of State The Hill reports.

* * *

Sanders shows no signs of letting up heading into the California primary June 7th, and these comments are further evidence the the campaign will continue to apply pressure to any and all pain points that Clinton may have. We do still hold out hope that Sanders, as it gets even closer to the end, will at least raise the issue of the Clinton Foundation giving $2 million to Bill's "Energizer" mistress just as one last thorn in Hillary's side. Although if Sanders doesn't mention it, there's a good chance that Trump will.

 

h/t The Blaze

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It Takes A Village To Maintain A Dangerous Financial System

Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

Screen Shot 2016-06-06 at 10.42.11 AM

Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere. We are caught in an inescapable network of mutuality, tied in a single garment of destiny. Whatever affects one directly, affects all indirectly.

 

We know through painful experience that freedom is never voluntarily given by the oppressor; it must be demanded by the oppressed.

 

The answer lies in the fact that there are two types of laws: just and unjust. I would be the first to advocate obeying just laws. One has not only a legal but a moral responsibility to obey just laws. Conversely, one has a moral responsibility to disobey unjust laws. I would agree with St. Augustine that “an unjust law is no law at all.”

 

We should never forget that everything Adolf Hitler did in Germany was “legal” and everything the Hungarian freedom fighters did in Hungary was “illegal.” It was “illegal” to aid and comfort a Jew in Hitler’s Germany. Even so, I am sure that, had I lived in Germany at the time, I would have aided and comforted my Jewish brothers.

 

– From the post: Martin Luther King: “Everything Adolf Hitler did in Germany was Legal”

Last month, Anat R.Admati, the George G.C. Parker Professor of Finance and Economics at Stanford University’s Graduate School of Business, published a very important working paper titled, It Takes a Village to Maintain a Dangerous Financial System. At 26 pages, it’s a bit longer than what you might leisurely read in the course of your daily activities, but I strongly suggest you take the time. Of course, if you don’t have the time, I’ve provided some key excerpts for you below.

Despite deconstructing an intentionally complicated subject, the paper was both an enjoyable read and easily understandable. Additionally, the range of issues she successfully covered in such an short piece was nothing short of heroic.

I knew it would be good after reading the abstract…

Abstract: I discuss the motivations and actions (or inaction) of individuals in the financial system, governments, central banks, academia and the media that collectively contribute to the persistence of a dangerous and distorted financial system and inadequate, poorly designed regulations. Reassurances that regulators are doing their best to protect the public are false. The underlying problem is a powerful mix of distorted incentives, ignorance, confusion, and lack of accountability. Willful blindness seems to play a role in flawed claims by the system’s enablers that obscure reality and muddle the policy debate.

Here’s some more. Enjoy:

1. Introduction

“If it takes a village to raise a child, it takes a village to abuse a child.”

 

Policymakers who repeatedly fail to protect the public are not accountable partly because false claims obscure reality, create confusion and muddle the debate.

 

It is useful to contrast safety in banking and in aviation. Tens of thousands of airplanes take off, fly and land daily, often simultaneously within small geographical area. Yet, crashes are remarkably rare. It takes many collaborating individuals, from engineers and assembly workers to mechanics, airline and airport employees, air controllers, and regulators, to achieve and maintain such safety levels. In banking, instead, there are strong incentives to take excessive risk; banks effectively compete to endanger. The victims are dispersed and either unaware of the endangerment, misled into believing that the risk is unavoidable or that reducing it would entail significant cost, or powerless to bring about meaningful change. Most of those who collectively control the system benefit from its fragility or choose to avoid challenging the system, effectively becoming enablers.

 

Society’s interest in aviation safety is aligned with the incentives of those involved in maintaining it. Crashed planes and dead passengers are visible to the public and easy to understand. Airplane manufacturers and airlines stand to suffer losses from compromising safety. Radars, flight recorders and other technologies uncover the exact cause of most plane crashes, and those responsible face consequences. Screening procedures try to prevent terrorist attacks. The fear of being directly responsible for deaths prevents individuals involved in maintaining safe aviation from failing to do their part.

 

In banking, the public interest in safety conflicts with the incentives of people within the industry…Even if a crisis occurs, the enablers of the system can promote narratives that divert attention from their own responsibility and from the fact that much more can be done at little if any social cost to make the system safer and healthier.

 

Designing appropriate rules requires professional expertise. Experts, however, may provide biased or flawed advice. Sometimes experts are paid by interested parties to help tilt the rules in specific ways. Even supposedly neutral academics and other experts may provide poor policy guidance. For example, medical research about drugs and medical devices can get corrupted when pharmaceutical companies are involved in funding research or employ researchers or policymakers. In one case involving a spinal fusion product, researchers paid by the manufacturer suppressed serious side effects (Meier, 2012). In another, members of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in U.S. had direct ties with manufacturers that created conflicts of interest (Lenzer and Epstein 2012).

 

Many aspects of the financial system in developed economies are unjust because they allow powerful, better informed people to benefit at the expense of people who are less informed and less powerful. The injustice can be described from a number of perspectives. First, the system contributes to distortions in the distribution of income and wealth, as some of those who benefit from it are among the most privileged members of society, while those who are harmed include the poorest. Second, by allowing the privatization of profits and the socialization of losses, the financial system distorts basic notions of responsibility and liability. Financial crises affect employment and the economic well-being of many segments of society, but those who benefit most from this system and who enable it tend to suffer the least harm. The persistence of this unjust system illustrates how democracies sometimes fail to serve the interest of the majority of their citizens.

 

2. Other People’s Money

“Traders risk the bank’s capital…. If they win they get a share of the winning. If they lose, then the bank picks up the losses…. the money at risk is not their own, it’s all OPM — other people’s money…. Traders can always play the systemic risk trump card. It is the ultimate in capitalism — the privatization of gains, the socialization of losses…. Traders are given every incentives to take risk and generate short-term profits.”

 

Business corporations use money from investors in exchange for financial claims such as debt or shares of equity. Outside banking, it is rare for healthy corporations, without any regulations, to fund more than 70 percent of their assets by borrowing, even though corporate tax codes typically favor debt over equity funding.

 

In banking, heavy borrowing is less burdensome than elsewhere, because banks’ lenders (such as depositors) are unusually passive and do not impose harsh terms even if banks take significant risk that endangers their ability to pay their debts. Depositors trust that the government (or a deposit insurance fund) will pay them if the bank cannot. Lenders who can seize some of the banks’ assets ahead of depositors also feel safe lending to banks under attractive terms.

 

Since many financial institutions are exposed to similar risks and interact extensively with one another, the financial system can become fragile and prone to crises when institutions are funded almost exclusively with debt. Fears of contagion or “systemic risk” lead governments and central banks to offer supports and bailouts that prevent the default of banks and other institutions. Whereas supports and bailouts prevent default, banks are often allowed to persist in an unhealthy state of distress and possible insolvency for extended periods of time, which distorts their decisions and makes them inefficient or dysfunctional (Admati and Hellwig 2013a, chap. 3, 11). Bailouts and supports help institutions to pay their debt in full, often to counterparties within the financial system itself, as happened with insurance company AIG.

 

Excessive fragility and inadequate safety rules have always affected banking. As governments created central banks and deposit insurance and thus allowed banks more privileged access to debt funding, equity levels declined consistently (Hoenig 2016). The problem has gotten more severe in recent decades. Financial innovations such as securitization and derivatives, which can be used to manage risk, have enabled financial firms to take more risk while hiding this fact within the increasingly complex and opaque global system. As privileged access to funding and opportunities to hide risk expanded, regulations and disclosure rules failed to keep up and counter the distorted incentives.

Just in case you’re still drinking the Kool-Aid that the financial system is much safer now following the crisis.

Contrary to claims by many, the reformed capital regulations are overly complex, dangerously inadequate and poorly designed. They are not based on a proper analysis of the costs and benefits of different approaches and fail to reflect key lessons from the crisis and the true relevant tradeoffs (Admati et al 2013, Admati and Hellwig 2013a, 2015). International minimum standards allow banks to fund as little as three percent of their assets by equity, and the details of how this ratio is determined are subject to lobbying and debate. The measures of financial health used by regulators are unreliable and can lull regulators and the public into a false sense of safety just as happened prior to the Crisis. They still count on problematic accounting rules, credit ratings, and complex “risk weights” that give the pretense of science while in fact being distortive, political and counterproductive.

 

Banks are allowed, indeed encouraged, to persist in a permanent state of excessive, inefficient and dangerous level of indebtedness.

 

Society is made to tolerate an inefficient and dangerous system because policymakers contribute to and fail to counter distorted incentives and ability to endanger.

 

The main beneficiaries from this situation are managers and executives in banks and other financial institutions, who have access to cheap funding and enjoy magnified profits and bonuses during prosperous periods, often while suffering little on the downside (Admati and Hellwig 2013a, chap. 8-10 and Kay 201, Admati 2015. Admati 2012, Bhagat 2016 and Bhagat and Bolton 2014). Auditors, credit rating agencies, law firms, consultants and lobbyists are offered many profitable opportunities from overly complex rules.

 

Those who manage other people’s money in institutions such as pension funds and mutual funds also tend to benefit on the upside and have little to lose if they take risk for which their investors or clients are not properly compensated. These institutions may not be run fully in the interests of the small investors whose money they invest (Bogle 2006 and Jung and Dobbin 2012), and may prefer to collaborate with banks; indeed, they may be partly owned or sponsored by banking institutions. Other enabler, as discussed later, benefit from the current rules or have reasons to avoid challenging the status quo.

This angle is a very dangerous one, and something I’ve covered repeatedly. See:

SEC Official Claims Over 50% of Private Equity Audits Reveal Criminal Behavior

Additional Details Emerge on How Hedge Funds and Private Equity Firms Loot Public Pensions

South Carolina Pension Shifts Assets Into “Alternative Investments” – Disastrous Performance Follows

The main losers from this system are taxpayers and the broader public. Those lured into borrowing too much in a credit boom face harsh consequences when boom turns to bust, and the economy is harmed by an unstable financial system that does not allocate resources efficiently (Taylor 2015). The harm, however, is diffused and difficult to connect to actions or inaction by specific individuals, and it persists because of a powerful mix of distorted incentives and pervasive confusion.

 

3. Many Enablers

“Banks are still the most powerful lobby on Capitol Hill; and they frankly own the place.”

 

It takes many collaborating individuals, each responding to their own incentives and roles, to enable a dangerous financial system. Who are the enablers and what are their motivations? As we discuss in this section, enablers work within many organizations, including auditors and rating agencies, lobbying and consulting firms, regulatory and government bodies, central banks, academia and the media.

 

The enablers have reasons to defend the system and the regulations and to avoid challenging the financial industry and each other. Their actions, or failures to act, endanger and harm the public even as some of them are charged with protecting the public and most claim and are believed to act in the public interest. Some enablers are confused or misinformed, but as discussed later, the confusion is often willful.

 

Accounting rules and risk models used in regulations allow significant discretion. Exposing fraud in disclosures or flaws in models can be costly for individuals throughout the financial system or within watchdogs and regulatory bodies. Whistleblowers are often ignored or fired, and they are likely to lose career opportunities.

 

Regulatory dysfunction is often associated with the notion of “regulatory capture.” One cause of capture are the “revolving doors” where the same people rotate their roles within institutions in the financial system, politics and regulations, and other organizations, including the media. Connaughteon (2012, loc. 459), who worked in policy and as a lobbyist, describes Washington DC as

 

a place where the door between the public sector and the private sector revolves every day. A lawyer at the SEC or Justice Department leaves to take a position at a Washington Law firm; a Wall Street executive takes a position at the Treasury Department. The former will soon be defending the Wall Street executives his old colleagues are investigating; the latter will soon be preventing (or delaying or diluting) any government policy that Wall Street doesn’t like.

 

Government officials and staff routinely proceed to take positions in the financial sector, lobbying or consulting firms, or think tanks sponsored by companies. Government positions are often filled by people currently in the financial sector.

 

Revolving doors contribute to excessive complexity of regulation, because complexity provides an advantage — and creates job opportunities — to those familiar with the details of the rules and the regulatory process. Complexity also opens more ways to obscure the flaws of the regulations from the public and create the pretense of action even if the regulations are ineffective. Revolving doors do not ensure, as is sometimes claimed, that people who stay in policy throughout their careers are effective regulators; they might well be at a disadvantage relative to people in the industry. The best regulators are sometimes the few who have worked in the industry and have no plans to return.

 

This is also why bills passed by Congress tend to be thousands of pages. No one reads them. Lobbyists only care about the few pages they were allowed to write and then they go back to their clients and explain the relevant loophole to be exploited. Politicians only care that they handed out sufficient pork to their cadre of corporate sponsors.

 

Politicians write laws, and they appoint and monitor top regulators. A safe banking system is often not politicians’ top priority. Politicians may want banks to provide funding to particular industries and constituents or to help in political campaigns even if these actions put citizens and the economy at excessive risk.

 

Blanket guarantees to large banking institutions are particularly dangerous because banks have significant discretion as to how they use the subsidized funding, and guarantees are an effective license for recklessness, even lawlessness (Admati 2014). Politicians are rarely held accountable for the harmful effect of implicit guarantees combined with poor regulations.

 

Capture takes many subtle forms in the context of financial regulations. Social connections, shared experiences, and lack of expertise can make policymakers inclined to accept claims made by financial experts even when the claims are false or misleading. Situations in which policymakers’ worldview is strongly affected by those they interact with have been referred to as “cognitive capture” (Johnson and Kwak 2013), “cultural capture” (Kwak 2014), “social capture” (Davidoff 2010) and “deep capture” (Baxter 2011). Prins 2014 documents the ties between presidents and top bankers.

 

Regulators and politicians are subject to significant lobbying from interested parties as they set and implement the rules (see, e.g., McGrance and Hilsenbarth 2012). Lobbying played a role in reckless lending practices that were key to the Great Financial Crisis of 2007- 2009 (Igan et al. 2011 and Vukovic 2011). Between 1999 and 2012, regulators in the US were less likely to initiate enforcement actions against lobbying banks (Lambert, 2015), and lobbies are also involved in drafting laws (Connaughton 2012, Drutman 2015, Lipton and Portes 2013, and Mufson and Hamburger 2014). In one case, part of the U.S. financial reform law passed in 2010 was reversed in 2014 as part of a budget law, with the active participation of bank lobbyists in writing the law (Eichelberer 2014). Advisory committees to regulators are often stacked with industry participants (Dayen 2016 and Eisinger 2012b).

See: Wall Street Moves to Put Taxpayers on the Hook for Derivatives Trades

Economists and other experts become apologists for the status quo and enablers of ineffective policies when they fail to point out problems or, worse, when they provide “scientific” support that contributes to and obscures or justifies flawed rules. Some experts are employed by industry groups or sponsored organizations paid to produce specific research.

 

Research conducted within government and regulatory bodies can be tainted, especially if key individuals are affected by lobbying or political pressure. Staff economists or other experts are often expected to produce research to support pre-set policies.18 Bureaucratic approval processes scrutinizes staff research before it becomes public. As a result, approved research tends to promote the “official” narratives, while research whose conclusions would contradict the preferred policy may be suppressed, possibly by the researchers themselves.

 

Even experts considered neutral, such as academic economists, are not immune to the forces of capture (Zingales 2013, 2015). Their incentives may be colored by the desire for job or consulting opportunities, positions on advisory or corporate or policy boards, prestige, sponsorship of research or conferences, data, and research collaborations. Challenging people within the financial system or other enablers is inconvenient or costly.

 

It is easier and more convenient for academics and other experts to find ways to collaborate with the many other enablers and to express themselves vaguely rather than directly contradict the viewpoints favored by policymakers. When issues appear technical and confusing, claims by people considered “big shots” may resonate or even sound profound to many who do not see their flaws. Making claims that serve the interest of powerful people can pay off, and with enough caveats there is little if any downside risk.

 

Writing clever mathematical models and elaborate empirical studies is valued and rewarded within economics. The desire to motivate and present research as relevant for the real world and for policy can blind researchers to the possibility that the model’s conclusion may depend critically on implausible or false assumptions and thus be inadequate for such applications. Just as a bridge built on faulty assumptions may be prone to collapse, the use of inadequate models in banking regulations can support reckless practices and dangerous and flawed laws and regulations.

 

Central banks play a critical role in the financial system and in the economy, and this role has expanded dramatically during and since the Great Financial Crisis. They are often involved in designing and implementing regulations and among their key role is providing “liquidity supports” to banks and sometimes to other financial institutions so as to prevent defaults. Institutions that have access to such supports are able to borrow more easily than they would otherwise. By providing excessive supports, central banks enable weak, even insolvent “zombie” institutions that are dysfunctional and do not help the economy, to persist for extended periods of time. Among the benefits of ensuring that banks are safer and less opaque is that they would be less likely to run into liquidity problems. Because central bank supports are loans, the supports do not reduce indebtedness; if central banks lend at below- market rates, the loans provide hidden subsidies to commercial banks and other firms.

 

Whereas they are meant to be independent, central banks are subject to political pressure (e.g. Conti-Brown 2016 and Nyborg 2016). Their decisions regarding whether and under what terms to provide support are often made with little if any scrutiny. The supports can obscure not only banks’ weakness but also the failure of regulators (sometimes within the central bank itself) to intervene early and reduce the likelihood of banks needing supports. Excessive interventions by central banks distort markets, and dysfunctional banks interfere with other central bank objectives (Gambacorta and Shin 2016). These issues are often ignored.

 

Although financial instability and excessive subsidies to the financial sector distort the broader economy, few business leaders speak up on financial regulations. Some may be unfamiliar with the issues, believe that regulatory reform is not working, or are inclined to view regulations as bad in themselves. Business leaders may also prefer to avoid challenging financial firms or policymakers whose collaboration may be useful.

 

Democratic governments should ultimately be accountable to citizens. Policy failures can persist, however, if citizens are unaware of the problem, confused about the issues, or powerless to bring about change. Enablers often come from across the political spectrum, leaving citizens few if any choices of effective advocates. Financial regulation is often not a salient topic in political campaigns. Even when there is anger about the financial system (as is the case currently in the U.S.), some key issues are not well understood.

Bernie Sanders was the only one really hammering home this issue. If Hillary gets the nomination, neither of the major party candidates will do anything about the parasitic and cancerous financial system.

News and commentary, however, may get distorted. Most media companies are for-profit businesses. In an extreme example, a newspaper avoided covering a story to protect advertising revenue (Osborne 2015). The interests of media owners, and even their lenders, may also affect coverage (Zingales 2016). Investigative reporting has declined because it can be expensive and adversarial (Starkman 2014).

 

Most of the time, the impact of private interests on news media is subtle. The same forces that cause cognitive and other forms of capture also operate here. One important factor in news media is reporters’ need for access to sources of news and stories, which brings them in frequent contact with those they cover (see e.g. Luyendijk 2015, chap 9). Publishing negative reports, or asking challenging questions, can interfere with access to stories or interviews. “Balanced” reporting may involve quoting false or misleading statements from industry or enablers (e.g. Oreskas and Conway 2010 and Admati and Hellwig 2013a, 2015, note 3).

 

Editorial decisions about topics, content and prominence of news and commentary can have important impact on public perception and policy. Those who make such decisions face implicit and explicit pressures from individuals and organizations keen to have favorable coverage and prevent unfavorable coverage, and who seek to use the media to promote their image and views. People and institutions with significant power, status and name recognition tend to be more successful in impacting media. Utterances by “important” individuals are reported as news, and these individuals are interviewed and quoted frequently with little if any scrutiny. Power and status also enables easier access to opinion pages where desired narratives can be promoted.

Even worse, totally discredited and provably harmful individuals in America continue to be supported and profiled by the media simply because they represent the status quo. Larry Summers is a perfect example. The man is a cultural disease with no cure.

— Matt Taibbi (@mtaibbi) June 6, 2016

If the news media gives more access and coverage to the industry and its enablers, and if it echoes rather than challenges flawed claims and fails to clarify issues in investigative reporting or commentary, it helps maintain or exacerbate confusion and diffuse accountability. Sometimes reporters or commentators accept claims made by people considered experts because examining the claims’ validity requires expertise that reporters lack. When media is used to explain the issues properly, it can elevate the discussion and help the public.

 

4. Spin and Narratives

“The few who understand the system will either be so interested in its profits or be so dependent upon its favors that there will be no opposition from that class, while the great body of people, mentally incapable of comprehending the tremendous advantage that capital derives from the system, will bear its burdens without complaint, and perhaps without even suspecting that the system is inimical to their interests.”

 

The financial system is dangerous and ineffectively regulated largely because the industry and the many enablers get away with their “spin” on reality and on specific issues.

 

Powerful people are not immune to confusion and to putting trust in people who may be conflicted or misinformed. Anecdotal evidence and discussions with many insiders suggest that “blind spots” about key issues related to banking and finance are pervasive. People are reluctant to question the assumptions behind convenient narratives and to engage with alternative and less convenient ones. They often display “motivated reasoning” (Kahan 2016) and variations of Upton Sinclair’s famous quip: “it is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!”

 

What people want to know becomes at least as important as what they actually know. Codes of silence evolve from collective blindness and an implicit agreement to maintain the silence. We may lie to ourselves and live in hope.

Recall what Larry Summers said to Elizabeth Warren: Stunning Quote – Larry Summers to Elizabeth Warren in 2009: “Insiders Don’t Criticize Other Insiders”

Misleading jargon obscures the issues and excludes many from the discussion. Lanchester (2014, 6) writes that when hearing the economists speak, “it’s easy to think that somebody is trying to con you… [or] trying to put up a smoke screen” and expresses the “strong feeling that a lot of the terms … were deliberately obscure and confusing.” The jargon can also muddle the debate by suggesting false trade-offs.

 

The problem goes much beyond jargon and the meaning of words. A bestselling textbook, written by an academic economist who served in high level policy positions, includes fallacious statements contradicting material in introductory finance courses. As already mentioned, basic economic forces are often denied and ignored in banking, and models in which risk is assumed to be unpreventable imply that regulations are futile or costly. Financial crises are portrayed as akin to natural disasters, for which emergency supports are the main tool. In fact, as discussed earlier, effective regulations can do much at little social cost to dramatically reduce the incidence and cost of crises and to correct other distortions.

 

Bankers and some enablers of the system often warn that tough regulations will have “unintended consequences” such as restricting credit and growth. In fact, healthier and safer banks can make loans more consistently and with fewer distortions, and credit suffers when banks have too little equity. The claim also presumes that all lending is good for the economy when excessive credit is typically a precursor to bust and crises. Ironically, such claims are made even as banks seek, and are allowed to deplete their equity by making payouts to shareholders that they could have used to make loans.

 

5. Is Change Possible?

“Collective moral disengagement at the social system level requires a network of participants vindicating their harmful practices.”

 

Good people can do harm and feel good about themselves, especially when many reinforce one another and remain unaccountable, and when the harm is diffuse, abstract and invisible (Bandura 2015). Spreading flawed claims that cannot be definitively contradicted, as lobbyists and enablers often do, is no crime. Distorted incentives, ignorance, and confusion combine for a powerful mix. How might those strong forces be overcome?

 

Some of those who understand that current regulations are ineffective focus on symptoms and overlook steps that can produce huge benefits at small cost. For example, the excessive size of too-big-to-fail institutions is enabled by their privileged access to subsidized debt funding, which creates enormous harm and distortions. These distortions can be addressed at little cost, and the likelihood of failure would also be reduced, if these institutions were forced to rely much more on equity and thus reduce their dependence on subsidized debt funding.

 

As discussed in this chapter, those at the controls of the financial system do not have strong incentives to protect the public; instead they stand to benefit from actions that contribute or tolerate harm and endangerment. Making the financial system safer would require better rules as well as better monitoring of the system, akin to radars in aviation. Yet, disclosures in banking remains poor and systems to track financial transactions and contracts have been slow to develop. The main obstacle is not the technical difficulty of controlling risk in banking, but rather the lack of political will to do so.

 

I have been intensely involved in the debate about banking regulation since 2008, first through discussions with colleagues and academic writing, and, starting in 2010, engaging with a broader set of people. The impetus for this deeper involvement came from individuals within regulatory bodies who alerted me that flawed claims are having an important impact on policy and urged me to speak up and help clarify the issues. Many of the references in this chapter reflect efforts to alert policymakers and the public to the remaining danger and distortions in the financial system and to propose ways to address them.

 

Luyendijk 2015 classifies the moral attitudes of the people he met within the financial system and describes his reaction to these attitudes. One type he finds ethically most disturbing he calls “cold fish.” Cold fish believe anything that is legal is perfectly fine to do.

For those who adhere to this philosophy, I’d like to remind you of the following: Martin Luther King: “Everything Adolf Hitler did in Germany was Legal”.

There are well-intentioned people in government and elsewhere, including within the financial system itself, who would want to act to promote the public interest, but are often prevented or deterred from doing so by political constraints, institutional policies and more subtle forms of discouragement. In a system dominated by powerful industry players and supported by powerful enablers, the need to promote institutional objective puts many people in conflict with the public interest. Regulators and financial practitioners may put their careers, status and prestige at risk if they challenge certain narratives.

 

Tenured academics, who have the most expertise, job security and academic freedom to express themselves and to engage in policy without being conflicted, are in a unique position to bring about positive change. Yet, some academics are important enablers of the badly regulated and dangerous financial system. By such behavior as making false statements in textbooks, creating models and narratives with assumptions that distort reality in critical ways, misusing or tolerating the misuse of research to propose or support bad policy, or making vague and misleading claims whose flaws, often subtle, can be difficult to detect, these economists exacerbate confusion, muddle the debate, and harm instead of promote the public interest. Someone with sufficient background to understand the academic literature, who has been employed by major financial institutions, quipped recently when discussing some statements by academic economists: “with such friends, who needs lobbyists?”

 

Ultimately, in a functioning democracy political change comes from public pressure, which requires better awareness and understanding. Education is extremely important, so that people become savvier in their own interactions with the financial system, and so they come to see past the fog of confusion.

I couldn’t agree more with the above paragraph. Indeed, it’s precisely why I dedicate so much of my time to writing this website.

Excellent work, Professor Admati. Here’s a link to the entire working paper: It Takes a Village to Maintain a Dangerous Financial System.

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Ralph Nader on Trigger Warnings: ‘Young Men Now Are Far Too Sensitive Because They’ve Never Been in a Draft’

Ask Ralph Nader about political correctness, and apparently you might unleash a little rant about sensitive kids who never went through basic training.

Lydia DePillio just interviewed the consumer advocate for Pacific Standard, and one question she posed was: “Do you think Trump has a point about political correctness? That we’ve gotten too uptight?” Nader’s response: “Oh, yeah. You see it on campuses—what is it called, trigger warnings? It’s gotten absurd. I mean, you repress people, you engage in anger, and what you do is turn people into skins that are blistered by moonbeams. Young men now are far too sensitive because they’ve never been in a draft. They’ve never had a sergeant say, ‘Hit the ground and do 50 push-ups and I don’t care if there’s mud there.'”

But the really interesting part of the interview came right before that, when DePillio asked what Trump’s popularity suggests to Nader about the electorate:

NADER: [Y]ou see this when you walk past construction sites and you talk with white male workers, they feel they have been verbally repressed. It’s hard for someone your age to understand what I’m about to say. They like to stand on a corner and whistle at a pretty lady. They like to flirt. But they can’t do that anymore. Multiply that across the continuum. You can’t say this about that, and you can’t say that about this. And the employer tells you to hush. And perhaps your spouse tells you to hush, and your kids tell you to hush. So they have a whole language that they inherited—ethnic words like Polack. A lot of these people grew up on ethnic jokes, which are totally taboo now. Do you know, Lydia, there are no ethnic-joke books in bookstores anymore?

DEPILLIO: There used to be?

NADER: All the time. There were Negro-joke books, Jewish-joke books, Polish-joke books, Italian-joke books. They used ethnic jokes to reduce tension in the 1930s, ’40s, ’50s. And they’d laugh at each other’s jokes and hurl another one. But it still flows through ethnic America, you know. There are hundreds of things that people would like to say. So here’s this guy—he doubles down on them, he blows their minds. So that’s the first way he got their attention.

Now, Nader’s never been focused on so-called “identity” issues—he takes the usual liberal positions on social issues most of the time, but he’s also the man who once responded to a question about same-sex marriage by saying he wasn’t “interested in gonadal politics.” And he’s always had a populist streak and an interest in reaching out to people in other parts of the political spectrum. So on one level, I’m not surprised to see him saying things like this. But on another level…well, if you asked me this morning what Ralph Nader might have to say about catcalling or the Jackie Mason school of comedy, this isn’t what I would have guessed.

Bonus Naderiana: For more from Nader on Trump, go here. For Reason‘s interview with Nader, watch the video:

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Obama Administration Delays Release of Hillary Clinton TPP Emails Until After the Election

Screen Shot 2016-06-06 at 3.45.46 PM

And with Singapore and a growing list of other countries on both sides of the Pacific, we are making progress toward finalizing a far-reaching new trade agreement called the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The so-called TPP will lower barriers, raise standards, and drive long-term growth across the region. It will cover 40 percent of the world’s total trade and establish strong protections for workers and the environment. Better jobs with higher wages and safer working conditions, including for women, migrant workers and others too often in the past excluded from the formal economy will help build Asia’s middle class and rebalance the global economy. Canada and Mexico have already joined the original TPP partners. We continue to consult with Japan. And we are offering to assist with capacity building, so that every country in ASEAN can eventually join. We welcome the interest of any nation willing to meet 21st century standards as embodied in the TPP, including China.

– Hillary Clinton, November 2012

You’d think the American pubic deserves to have access to this information before the election.

Barack Obama disagrees.

From the International Business Times:

Trade is a hot issue in the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign. But correspondence from Hillary Clinton and her top State Department aides about a controversial 12-nation trade deal will not be available for public review — at least not until after the election. The Obama administration abruptly blocked the release of Clinton’s State Department correspondence about the so-called Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), after first saying it expected to produce the emails this spring.

If you want your TPP-related emails, you can have your TPP-related emails.

continue reading

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Developed World Bond Yields Plunge To Record Lows

With the plunge in rate-hike odds and fears over Brexit, it appears the safety of global developed market bonds is sought after as Bloomberg’s Developed World Bond yield slumps to just 62bps – a record low. Yields are moving opposite to what economist expected (and have been expecting since the fall of 2011 when Ben Bernanke broke the capital markets).

Record low global bond yields…

 

As Bloomberg reports, investors are seeking the relative safety of bonds as central banks struggle to spur economic growth and inflation.

Policy makers in Europe and Japan are pursuing record stimulus programs, and traders are scaling back forecasts for when the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates.

 

“The probability of a hike in June has decreased,” said Wontark Doh, the head of overseas fixed-income investment in Seoul at Samsung Asset Management Co., which oversees $200 billion. “Treasuries rallied. Demand will persist. That has an effect on all other countries.”

10Y US Treasury yields are trading at 1.73% today – for context, a Bloomberg survey at the end of last year projected the figure would rise to 2.55 percent by June 30…

 

Ahead of Asia’s open tonight, we note that Australian 10-year yields fell to an all-time low of 2.15 percent and Japan’s slid to minus 0.125 percent, approaching the record of minus 0.135 percent.

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Hispanic Congressman Tears Into Trump: “You’re A Racist, Take Your Border Wall And Shove It Up Your Ass”

The political outcry from Trump’s ongoing back and forth with Gonzalo Curiel, the judge overseeing the class-action lawsuits against Trump Unviersity, escalated today when following accusations of racism from democrats, as well as many top GOP leaders such as Mitch McConnell, Paul Ryan, Newt Gingrich and Sen. Ben Sasse distancing themselves from Trump’s comments, a Hispanic House Democrat who represents a Texas district bordering Mexico tore into Donald Trump’s attacks on the Mexican-American judge, calling them blatantly racist.

Texas Democratic Congressman Filemon Vela didn’t mince words in a lengthy open letter to the presumptive GOP presidential nominee on Monday.

“Mr. Trump, you’re a racist and you can take your border wall and shove it up your ass.” Vela wrote.

Vela begins the letter noting that he agrees with Trump that Mexico should do more to deter violence from drug cartels and that felons in the U.S. illegally should be deported. But, as The Hill summarizes, he then excoriates the real estate mogul over his rhetoric about Hispanics, including Trump’s assertion that an American-born federal judge of Mexican descent won’t be impartial in a lawsuit against Trump University.


Texas Democratic Rep. Filemon Vela

“[Y]our ignorant anti-immigrant opinions, your border wall rhetoric, and your recent bigoted attack on an American jurist are just plain despicable,” Vela wrote.

“Your position with respect to the millions of undocumented Mexican workers who now live in this country is hateful, dehumanizing, and frankly shameful.”

The second-term lawmaker noted his own Mexican roots and pointed out that his family immigrated to the U.S. before Trump’s grandfather did from Germany.

“Before you dismiss me as just another ‘Mexican,’ let me point out that my great-great grandfather came to this country in 1857, well before your own grandfather. His grandchildren (my grandfather and his brothers) all served our country in World War I and World War II. His great-grandson, my father, served in the U.S. Army and, coincidentally, was one of the first ‘Mexican’ federal judges ever appointed to the federal bench,” Vela wrote.

Trump on Sunday doubled down on his stance that Gonzalo Curiel, the judge overseeing class-action lawsuits against Trump University, would be biased due to the billionaire’s campaign pledge to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. The candidate similarly said that a Muslim judge “absolutely” might treat him unfairly because of his proposal to ban Muslims from entering the U.S.

Here is the full text of the letter:

June 6, 2016

Donald Trump
725 Fifth Avenue

New York, NY 10022

 

Dear Mr. Trump,

 

As the United States Representative for the 34th Congressional District of Texas, I do not disagree with everything you say. I agree that the United States Government has largely failed our veterans, and those of us who represent the people in Congress have the obligation to rectify the Veterans Administration’s deficiencies. I also believe that the Mexican government and our own State Department must be much more aggressive in addressing cartel violence and corruption in Mexico, especially in the Mexican border state of Tamaulipas. And clearly, criminal felons who are here illegally should be immediately deported. There might even be a few other things on which we can agree.

 

However, your ignorant anti-immigrant opinions, your border wall rhetoric, and your recent bigoted attack on an American jurist are just plain despicable.

 

Your position with respect to the millions of undocumented Mexican workers who now live in this country is hateful, dehumanizing, and frankly shameful. The vast number of these individuals work in hotels, restaurants, construction sites, and agricultural fields across the United States. If I had to guess, your own business enterprises either directly or indirectly employ more of these workers than most other businesses in our country. Thousands of our businesses would come to a grinding halt if we invoked a policy that would require “mass deportation” as you and many of your supporters would suggest. That is precisely why the Republican-leaning U.S. Chamber of Commerce agrees that these workers deserve a national immigration policy that would give them a pathway to citizenship.

 

While you would build more and bigger walls on the U.S.-Mexico border, I would tear the existing wall to pieces. No doubt Mexico has its problems, but it is also our third-largest trading partner. U.S. Chamber of Commerce has documented that this trade relationship is responsible for six million jobs in the United States. In 2015, the U.S. imported $296 billion in goods from Mexico while exporting $235 billion in products manufactured in this country to Mexico. The Great Wall of China is historically obsolete, and President Ronald Reagan famously declared, “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall … ” while urging the Soviet Union to destroy the barrier that divided West and East Berlin. Why any modern-thinking person would ever believe that building a wall along the border of a neighboring country, which is both our ally and one of our largest trading partners, is frankly astounding and asinine.

 

I should also point out that thousands of Americans of Mexican descent that you mistakenly refer to as “Mexicans” have valiantly served the United States in every conflict since the Civil War. While too numerous to list, let me educate you about a few of these brave Medal of Honor recipients:

 

Master Sergeant Jose Lopez, from my own hometown of Brownsville, Texas, fought in World War II. Lopez was awarded the United States’ highest military decoration for valor in combat – the Medal of Honor – for his heroic actions during the Battle of the Bulge, in which he single handedly repulsed a German infantry attack, killing at least 100 enemy troops. If you ever run into Kris Kristofferson, ask him about Jose Lopez because as a young man Mr. Kristofferson recalls the 1945 parade honoring Sergeant Lopez as an event he will never forget.

 

In 1981, President Reagan presented Master Sergeant Roy Benavides with the Medal of Honor for fighting in what has been described as “6 hours in hell.” In Vietnam, Sergeant Benavides suffered 37 separate bullet, bayonet and shrapnel wounds to his face, leg, head and stomach while saving the lives of eight men. In fact, when awarding the honor to Benavides, President Reagan, turned to the media and said, “if the story of his heroism were a movie script, you would not believe it.”

 

You have now descended to a new low in your racist attack of an American jurist, U.S. District Court Judge Gonzalo Curiel, by calling him a “Mexican” simply because he ruled against you in a case in which you are being accused of fraud, among other accusations. Judge Curiel is one of 124 Americans of Hispanic descent who have served this country with honor and distinction as federal district judges. In fact, the first Hispanic American ever named to the federal bench in the United States, Judge Reynaldo G. Garza, was also from Brownsville, Texas, and was appointed by President John F. Kennedy in 1961.

 

Before you dismiss me as just another “Mexican,” let me point out that my great-great grandfather came to this country in 1857, well before your own grandfather. His grandchildren (my grandfather and his brothers) all served our country in World War I and World War II. His great-grandson, my father, served in the U.S. Army and, coincidentally, was one of the first “Mexican” federal judges ever appointed to the federal bench.

 

I would like to end this letter in a more diplomatic fashion, but I think that you, of all people, understand why I cannot. I will not presume to speak on behalf of every American of Mexican descent, for every undocumented worker born in Mexico who is contributing to our country every day or, for that matter, every decent citizen in Mexico. But, I am sure that many of these individuals would agree with me when I say: ‘Mr. Trump, you’re a racist and you can take your border wall and shove it up your ass.’

 

Sincerely,
Filemon Vela
Member of Congress

But while the condemnation of Trump’s statement has been largely uniform among the political elite, one person who has so far voiced a supporting tone and said that “Trump has a right to ask if Judge Gonzalo Curiel is fair”, was Alberto Gonzales, who served as White House counsel and U.S. attorney general in the George W. Bush administration. Here is an excerpt of what he said in a WaPo oped:

Certainly, Curiel’s Mexican heritage alone would not be enough to raise a question of bias (for all we know, the judge supports Trump’s pledge to better secure our borders and enforce the rule of law). As someone whose own ancestors came to the United States from Mexico, I know ethnicity alone cannot pose a conflict of interest.

 

But there may be other factors to consider in determining whether Trump’s concerns about getting an impartial trial are reasonable. Curiel is, reportedly, a member of a group called La Raza Lawyers of San Diego. Trump’s aides, meanwhile, have indicated that they believe Curiel is a member of the National Council of La Raza, a vocal advocacy organization that has vigorously condemned Trump and his views on immigration. The two groups are unaffiliated, and Curiel is not a member of NCLR. But Trump may be concerned that the lawyers’ association or its members represent or support the other advocacy organization. Coupled with that question is the fact that in 2014, when he certified the class-action lawsuit against Trump, Curiel appointed the Robbins Geller law firm to represent plaintiffs. Robbins Geller has paid $675,000 in speaking fees since 2009 to Trump’s likely opponent, Hillary Clinton, and to her husband, former president Bill Clinton. Curiel appointed the firm in the case before Trump entered the presidential race, but again, it might not be unreasonable for a defendant in Trump’s position to wonder who Curiel favors in the presidential election. These circumstances, while not necessarily conclusive, at least raise a legitimate question to be considered. Regardless of the way Trump has gone about raising his concerns over whether he’s getting a fair trial, none of us should dismiss those concerns out of hand without carefully examining how a defendant in his position might perceive them — and we certainly should not dismiss them for partisan political reasons.

 

Finally, some have said that Trump’s criticism of the judge reflects on his qualifications to be president. If the criticism is solely based on Curiel’s race, that is something voters will take into account in deciding whether he is fit to be president. If, however, Trump is acting from a sincere motivation to protect his constitutional right to a fair trial, his willingness to exercise his rights as an American citizen and raising the issue even in the face of severe criticism is surely also something for voters to consider.

In any event, this issue is not going away any time soon, and it remains to be seen how it will impact Trump’s popularity in the coming days, especially if Trump continue to engage in a back and forth over what is ultimately a private matter, instead of refocusing his supporters’ attention on the escalating feud with Hillary Clinton.

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