Watch Janet Yellen Explain Why She Hiked Rates As Economic Data Collapses – Fed Press Conference Live Feed

Collapsing economic data, weaker PCE forecasts (1.7% vs 1.9%), but stronger economic growth guesses (2.2% vs 2.1%) and The Fed hikes rates and doesn’t just maintain its rate trajectory but pulls forward the beginning of balance sheet unwinds. We look forward to Janet explaining how everything is so awesome…

Federal Reserve officials forged ahead with an interest-rate increase and additional plans to tighten monetary policy despite growing concerns over weak inflation.

“Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the committee is monitoring inflation developments closely,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement.

 

“The committee currently expects to begin implementing a balance sheet normalization program this year, provided that the economy evolves broadly as anticipated.”

Nailed it…

Live Feed:

via http://ift.tt/2rs5hXR Tyler Durden

Bernie Sanders Links Political Rhetoric to Violence When ‘Right-Wing,’ Not When Perpetrated by His Own Volunteer

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) today reacted to hearing news that congressional baseball shooter James Hodgkinson was a volunteer on his presidential campaign with a somber and unequivocal statement that he was “sickened,” and that “violence of any kind is unacceptable in our society.” Watch it here:

Sanders did not choose in this moment to stand up and denounce the increasingly violent rhetoric coming from the left wing of American politics, and appropriately so: As I argued after Jared Loughner’s deadly Arizona shooting rampage in 2011 (and again as recently as last month), responsibility for acts of violence lies with the perpetrators, not unconnected persons engaged in political hyperbole, no matter how deranged the latter. I only wish such post-Loughner restraint had been shown by Bernie Sanders himself.

Why did I think that this cover was acceptable? ||| ReasonOn January 11, 2011, three days after Loughner shot Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.) and murdered six people, Sanders sent out a fundraising email that, among other things, criticized Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) for not doing more to condemn right-wing political rhetoric. Excerpt:

Nobody can honestly express surprise that such a tragedy finally occurred. […] Congresswoman Giffords publicly expressed concerns when Sarah Palin, on her website, placed her district in the cross-hairs of a rifle – and identified her by name below the image – as an encouragement to Palin supporters to eliminate her from Congress. […] In light of all of this violence – both actual and threatened – is Arizona a state in which people who are not Republicans are able to participate freely and fully in the democratic process? Have right-wing reactionaries, through threats and acts of violence, intimidated people with different points of view from expressing their political positions? My colleague, Senator John McCain, issued a very strong statement after the shooting in which he condemned the perpetrator of the attack. I commend him for that. But I believe Senator McCain and other Arizona Republicans need to do more. As the elder statesman of Arizona politics McCain needs to stand up and denounce the increasingly violent rhetoric coming from the right-wing and exert his influence to create a civil political environment in his state.

Click on the link for the full context. One can only imagine his level of vituperation had Loughner been, say, a Sarah Palin volunteer. As I predicted back then:

This will not be the last time political violence will be perpetrated or attempted during Obama’s presidency (or those of his successors), so the pattern is worth committing to memory. Terrible deed prompts premature finger-pointing….Partisans immediately blame their mirror images on the other side of the aisle, and endless oxygen is expended debating an undefinable “climate” of violence allegedly created by political expression.

And further,

most of the people calling for a “new tone,” for a rhetorical disarmament in the discussion of politics, [will be] motivated not by an equal opportunity antipathy to non-empirical hyperbole, but by a partisan revulsion at excess from the side whose beliefs they happen to find distasteful.

On days like today, it’s worth engaging in a little self-inventory to see how you reacted when the political violence was aimed at the opposing team. If in one case you assign responsibility to the shooter, and not to the political opponents of the targets, you really ought to do so in the other. Any talk of hyperbolic rhetoric then becomes a secondary, though still interesting, issue.

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/2spEaf7
via IFTTT

Jeff Sessions Continues to Represent a Massive Liability for Donald Trump

Ever since it became obvious that the Democratic Party had no interest in pivoting to addressing the very real economic insecurities faced by tens of millions of Americans following Hillary Clinton’s embarrassing loss in the 2016 election, I knew that Trump was being gifted a very real opportunity for a second term. That’s how corrupt and stupid Democratic leadership is.

Meanwhile, the entire “Trump colluded with Russia to influence the election” conspiracy theory is rapidly unravelling and Democrats still can’t let go. As such, if the party’s leadership is stupid enough to nominate another Wall Street-coddling neoliberal warmonger in 2020, Trump has a very strong chance of winning. The only thing that can really hurt his odds at this point is if he continues to alienate his base.

Here’s something I wrote on the topic in the post, The Consensus Echo Chamber Take on Trump Firing Comey is All Wrong:

continue reading

from Liberty Blitzkrieg http://ift.tt/2sAYXNl
via IFTTT

FOMC Delivers “Dovish Hike”, Lays Out Plans For Balance-Sheet Unwind

In the most well-telegraphed, 'never in doubt, no matter how bad the economic data is' FOMC Statement ever, The Fed hiked rates by 25bps and maintained its rate-hike trajectory forecast, shrugging off the collapse in economic data (including weak inflation). The market was anticipating a so-called 'dovish hike' and The Fed delivered to some extent by saying it is "monitoring" inflation (and dropped the word 'transitory') and also offered more detailed plans of the balance sheet unwind (beginning this year).

*  *  *

Interesting hedgeing against the chance of a "no rate hike" was "aggressive" today in Fed Funds Futures.

Additional headlines…

  • *FED RAISES RATES, MAINTAINS FORECAST FOR ONE MORE HIKE IN 2017
  • *FED SAYS IT'S `MONITORING INFLATION DEVELOPMENTS CLOSELY'
  • *FED SAYS KASHKARI DISSENTS IN FAVOR OF KEEPING RATES ON HOLD
  • *FED SAYS IT EXPECTS TO START SHRINKING BALANCE SHEET THIS YEAR
  • *FED MAINTAINS BALANCE SHEET REINVESTMENT, LAYS OUT UNWIND PLAN

*  *  *

The fallacy of Fed data-dependence is exposed…

And the yield curve has collapsed in policy-error-style…

As of last night, the market was pricing 1.48 rate hikes in 2017 (including today), heading into the print, it was anticipating just 1.28 rate hikes (including today) following the dismal data this morning…

*  *  *

Full FOMC Statement redline below…

 

*  *  *

Get back to work Mrs.Yellen…

via http://ift.tt/2sB54RZ Tyler Durden

Mainstream Media Incitement of Violence Against Republicans Leads to Shooting of U.S. Congressman

The madman who opened fire and shot a sitting U.S. congressman (and majority whip) and others today is a liberal who wanted to “kill as many Republicans as possible“, and who had recently written:

It’s Time to Destroy Trump & Co.

And at least some liberals expressed pleasure that the congressman was shot.

How did the left become the crazies advocating violence against other Americans?

It’s often said that corruption starts at the top.   And the corporate media has been overtly or covertly calling for violence against the Trump administration for months.  

Trump may be a terrible president, but the media is completely out of hand inciting violence against a sitting president (the New York Times and Time Warner supporting a play showing the assassination of Trump doesn’t help the optics.)

Assassination fantasies have become so common that their are now cartoons about them.

I passionately and continually fight to protect free speech …

But inciting violence is not free speech.

via http://ift.tt/2rsgtUm George Washington

RBC Doubles Down: “The Slightest Fed Disappointment Could Rock Us”

Just in case RBC’s earlier warning that even a trace of hawkishness from the Fed after today’s disappointing CPI report was a major risk, moments ago RBC’s Charlie McElligott doubled down on his warning, and in a note to client said that the entire investing world now feels completely justified in coming into today with ‘dovish hike’ expectations. However, as he adds, “the issue there is that it sets a VERY fine-line on messaging, where you have such consensual expection of ‘dovish hike’ that the slightest disappointment in this view could rock us.

His thoughts:

IF the Fed were to somehow ‘screw-up’ this very simply ‘soft-ball’ messaging task and come off as anything resembling ‘hawkish’–perhaps by again attempting to use the term ‘transitory’ to describe what are ‘outright collapsing’ inflation expectations—the market murmur of ‘Fed policy error’ grows exponentially.   And believe me, I get it that we still have a lot of economic positives going for us.  But the market is focused on inflation.

 

And as per this morning’s note, this would be the ‘2nd scenario’ I talked about towards the bottom of the piece–a broader de-risking interpretation largely based upon a view that the Fed has truly painted itself into corner here.  

 

If they continue to push ‘tightening’ under ‘transitory inflation weakness’–when now we are confirmed as GETTING SOFTER, period–we could get that ‘de-risk’ where folks actually ‘gross-down’ (GASP, LOL).  In that case, it won’t just be ‘cyclicals’ being sold further….but outright ‘longs’ too….especially when looking at cycle-high gross- and net- exposures.

 

That’s the ‘policy error’ interpretation, and it’s entirely dependent upon today’s Fed guidance.  The market will NEED to hear them state plainly / upgrade the tone of the concern / clearly message that they are ‘watching inflation closely’ to assuage these fears.

via http://ift.tt/2t2uPYy Tyler Durden

A U.N. Effort to Make Cultural Appropriation Illegal?

Diplomats from around the world are meeting in Geneva this week to discuss how intellectual property laws can stop the “misappropriation and misuse” and “offensive and derogatory use” of “traditional cultural expression.” Or as the CBC put it: They’re asking whether “cultural appropriation” should be “illegal worldwide.”

Thankfully, that’s just a worst-case scenario. Bureaucratic rot makes it unlikely that anything will get that far.

The meeting is being held by the Intergovernmental Committee on Intellectual Property and Genetic Resources, Traditional Knowledge and Folklore (IGC), a group established in 2000 by the World Intellectual Property Organization, a United Nations agency. The committee’s aim is to create legal protections for “traditional cultural expressions,” which can include “music, dance, art, designs, names, signs and symbols, performances, ceremonies, architectural forms, handicrafts and narratives, or many other artistic or cultural expressions.” In the 17 years since the IGC was established, it has yet to establish any actual substantial regulations.

What sort of appropriation does the committee want to stop? University of Colorado Law Dean James Anaya, an indigenous leader and a technical analyst for the IGC, points to products that purport to be made or endorsed by indigenous groups but aren’t. At the Geneva meeting, Anaya offered Urban Outfitters’ “Navajo line” as an example. The Navajo Nation actually brought suit in U.S. court against Urban Outfitters over that line of products in 2012, and the case was settled out of court last year. It’s unclear how an international intellectual property bureaucracy would improve the situation.

But it’s clear how it could create new avenues for rent-seeking. The World Intellectual Property Organization generates revenue from fees, such as the ones it charges for international trademarks. Any system the IGC creates is likely to include a similar international mechanism for registering whichever “traditional cultural expressions” get protections. Such a setup could have a chilling effect on any commercialization of folklore, even by members of the original indigenous communities.

After all, the same forces of globalization and decentralization that have made intellectual property laws more difficult to enforce offer the potential to drastically expand native producers’ reach. KPMG has noted, for example, that the internet offers a “new potential for indigenous Australians in regional and remote areas to access global audiences.” An IGC-style intellectual property regime would inevitably require such entrepreneurs, not just the big corporations accused of cultural appropriation, to get additional approvals for their activity.

Meanwhile, the same governments with long histories of abusing indigenous populations would be responsible for deciding who belongs to such populations and who faces criminal penalties for not meeting the governments’ definitions. Kathy Bowrey, a law professor at the University of New South Wales in Australia, tells Reason that she would love to see the IGC succeed in setting up an system that genuinely protects indigenous culture. But she has no hopes that it will. Given the “racist practices that mark everyday lives of First Nations people domestically,” she says, “I’m not sure why there is an expectation that these states would operate differently on the international stage.”

One area being negotiated this week might be an exception to the above complaints. The IGC is also looking at “traditional medicines,” which outside companies have a history of incorporating into drugs they then patent for themselves. In this case, the committee aims to “avoid the granting of erroneous patents,” a goal that would limit rather than expand the excesses of intellectual property laws.

Of course, the IGC might not succeed in adopting any rules at all. Its members hope to organize a major diplomatic conference on the issue in the next two years, but first the World Intellectual Property Organization has to decide in October whether even to extend the committee’s mandate. The IGC’s mandate last expired in 2014, at which point it stopped its work for a year.

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/2t2Eled
via IFTTT

Chilling Raw Audio Revealed Of Alexandria Shooting This Morning

The Hill has just released shocking audio of this morning’s shooting in Alexandria, VA that left Majority Whip Steve Scalise and 4 others hospitalized with gunshot wounds incurred while practicing for a charity baseball game.

The audio was taken by a resident who lived just a block away from the park where the shooting occurred.  As many as 30 gun shots can be heard in the recording though it’s unclear how many of the shots were fired by the gunman and how many were fired by police. Per The Hill:

The Hill has obtained audio of dozens of gun shots at the GOP baseball practice in Alexandria, Va.

 

Tryshah Taylor, the woman who recorded the video from her back porch, began recording shortly after the firing began.

 

Taylor lives less than a block from the practice field where the shooting took place.

As we noted earlier, the shooter has been identified as 66-year-old, never-Trumper and Bernie Sanders supporter James Hodgkinson of Belleville, Illinois.  Hodgkinson has since died from gunshot wounds he incurred during a shootout with police.

via http://ift.tt/2rwevgY Tyler Durden

Does This Look Like A Good Time To Hike Rates?

Janet, you have a problem

A disastrous morning for US macro data has sent Citi's Macro Surprise Index to its lowest since May 2015 with The Fed's March rate hike perfectly top-ticking the economic data that it is so "dependent" upon…

 

This morning's 'hard' data tumble pushed it to its weakest since April 2016 and 'soft' data tumbling back to reality…

As Citi notes, breaking down this move, we can see that the recent data disappointments have been driven by a steady fall in the underlying data, rather than overly exuberant expectations. In other words, economists have been adjusting expectations downwards, but the data has been falling at a faster rate. This chart shows this relationship, as the Data Change Index (shown by the red line) has been declining more quickly than the Consensus Change Index, which measures the change in expectations (shown by the light blue area):

 

And yet we are assured by The Fed that a hike is overdue and everything is awesome… (though notably the market dropped from pricing in 1.48 rate hikes in 2017 (including today's) to just 1.32 rate hikes…

Is what little that is left of The Fed's credibility about to be crushed?

Finally, can you spot the country that is tightening its monetary policy?

via http://ift.tt/2saTV7w Tyler Durden

Police Issue “Shelter In Place” After Mass Shooting In San Francisco – Live Feed

San Francisco police advised residents to avoid the area and shelter in place, after multiple people were shot in San Francisco’s Potrero Hill neighborhood near a UPS facility around 9amPT this morning, according to numerous reports.

Details to follow…

At least 2 people are being treated by fire fighters and first responders for injuries sustained in connection with the active shooter situation.

*  *  *

Social media has some color…

 

via http://ift.tt/2t2xT7e Tyler Durden