Hillary Clinton is Awful

Hillary Clinton is an awful candidate. She ended up winning last night’s Democratic Iowa caucus by .3 percent, and is projected to earn one delegate more than Bernie Sanders did in the contest. The race was so close many of the precinct contests were resolved by coin tosses.

But while Sanders is crushing Clinton in polls in New Hampshire, site of the next presidential contest, things look a little easier for Clinton after that. She’s beating Sanders by an almost two-to-one margin in South Carolina. Same in Nevada, where there are fewer available polls. Clinton also still leads nationally.

Sanders’ surge started in the summer, and by the time Joe Biden finally announced he wouldn’t be running for president, Sanders appeared to be the only anti-Clinton choice. Most of Sanders’ success can be attributed to his offer of “free stuff” for everyone. Healthcare is a right, Sanders insisted in his Iowa speech last night. Starting with that premise, why would you means-test?

Sanders won 83 percent of the vote of Democrats who said a candidate who was honest and trustworthy was important to them. Yet Sanders’ proposals are not honest. He continues to insist a tax on “Wall Street speculation” will pay for most of his programs, while claiming that higher taxes that “middle class families” would have to pay would be more than offset by lower healthcare premiums. That construction conveniently leaves out the higher overall burden on single people, many of whom are among Sanders’ most ardent supporters.

Yet Sanders’ brand of “democratic socialism” (that’s been repudiated by the same Scandinavian countries Sanders points to as examples) and the novelty of a Democrat actually owning his socialist tendencies should not detract from how awful a candidate Hillary Clinton is, and how awful it is that Democrats produced a race with just two deeply-flawed options.

There is, of course, the e-mail scandal that won’t go away. Clinton has tried to paint the investigations surrounding her use of a private server for government communications as a Republican ploy. Yet the investigation is being run by the FBI, out of President Obama’s Department of Justice. Most recently, more than 20 of the emails were identified as being classified TOP SECRET, and now one government source told Fox News that information included “operational intelligence,” the kind of stuff the intelligence community claims puts lives at risk.

Clinton, then, is being accused of much the same thing Snowden was accused of, though from a different direction. Snowden disclosed information about U.S. surveillance practices to the American public. Clinton kept classified information on an unsecure server, making it easier for foreign agents and hackers to access. The Obama administration has prosecuted more people for mishandling classified information (including whistleblowers) than every previous administration combined. While Clinton now says the entire controversy is based on competing ideas about what ought to be classified, this concern about over-classification is a newfound religion for Clinton. It wasn’t on her agenda when she was actually in office and could have done something about it.

Then there’s Libya. Many of the Republican candidates supported the U.S. war in Libya and support similar, even more full-throttled interventions elsewhere, and the Republicans ultimately failed in 2011 to stand up to the president and stop the illegal war. For that reason, Clinton largely gets a free pass on the disaster in Libya and how her policy preferences and policy decisions contributed to the destabilization there and in the wider region. Instead, Republicans focus on Benghazi, a smaller subset of the Libya issue, largely surrounding Clinton’s lack of transparency and accountability and not how the instability at the root of the Benghazi attacks was a result of Obama-Clinton policies. Clinton’s participation in the anti-speech jihad, where she tried to pin the cause of anti-U.S. protests across the Muslim world in 2011 (including what became the Benghazi attack) on a YouTube video and the filmmaker who created it, has gone largely down the memory hole during the campaign. But it reveals a lot about Clinton’s moral and political character that she would sacrifice the principle of free speech to avoid taking responsibility for how her foreign policy approach in the Obama administration might have contributed to anti-U.S. sentiment.

Then there’s the 1994 crime bill, which President Clinton signed into law and did not repudiate until last year, when the veneer of inevitability around his wife was starting to fade. Hillary Clinton continues to insist the intentions of the 1994 crime bill, which massively grew the U.S. prison population, were positive, that harsher corrective measures were meant to improve people and communities.

In a much-derided Buzzfeed profile, Clinton insisted she wanted her entire political career to revolve around “love and kindness.” This is the woman who insisted a “vast right wing conspiracy,” and not differences of opinions and questions about character, animated healthy, democratic opposition to her husband’s presidency. At a CNN debate last year, she said the enemy she was proudest of was Republicans, who might make up up to a third of the American population. This is a woman who insists she wanted to be about “love and kindness” but her political opponents refused to agree with her politics.

Add to all that the toxic strategy deployed by Clinton’s supporters in the political and media class of identifying all dissent and opposition to Clinton as gendered, to the point of creating elaborate strawmen (“Bernie Bros“) to impugn the supporters of her only Democratic rival. It could get worse. In the United Kingdom, anti-war activists who engaged female members of Parliament were also called misogynists and abusers. Yet the head of a government as massive as the U.S.’s will, by definition, be an abuser. America can’t afford another president who masks their primary role in systemic oppression and government violence with the under the guise of identity politics.

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/1RYGgK3
via IFTTT

Shut Up, Explained the Businessman: How Consumers Like You Get SLAPPed Down

SLAPPChecking out the online reviews of an unfamiliar company’s product or service before you buy is now a reflex for most of us. A quick click over to Yelp, Angie’s List, TripAdvisor, and Yahoo Local Listings let’s you know what other customers think of their experiences with the businesses and service providers from which you’re thinking to make a purchase. And we’ve all become adept at figuring out when a online rater is just a whiny complaint-monger and when she is fairly describing her experience.

Businesses that get low ratings can do two things: Fix the problem or try to shut up the critical customers. In the second case, some companies have taken to filing lawsuits that claim their online critic has “defamed” them and demand that the rating be taken down. Such meritless lawsuits have come to be called Strategic Lawsuits Against Public Participation, or SLAPPs. The goal of a SLAPP is to intimidate people who disagree with the filer and cause them financial pain through legal fees required to defend against the lawsuits. All too often SLAPPs are effective as relatively penurious critics agree to apologize for or “correct” their earlier evaluations in order to avoid the hassles and costs of defending themselves in court.

In an effort to fix this abuse of legal process, a bipartisan coalition in the House of Representatives has introduced the Securing Participation, Engagement, and Knowledge Freedom by Reducing Egregious Efforts Act or the SPEAK FREE Act. The Act would allow a person who is SLAPPed to file a special motion to dismiss such lawsuits and collect legal fees from the person or entity that filed the initial SLAPP.

Representatives from eight free market, pro-consumer groups just sent today a letter in support of the SPEAK FREE Act to the House Judiciary Committee. The groups involved include the R Street Institute, FreedomWorks, the Center for Individual Freedom, Tech Freedom, the American Consumer Institute Center for Citizen Research, the Niskanen Center, the Insitute for Liberty, and the Competitive Enterprise Institute.

The letter points out “multitudes of Americans fall victim to lawsuits called SLAPPs … that are aimed at unfairly intimidating and silencing them.” The letter observes that online reviews are an important facet of the digital economy that helps to give consumers confidence to deal with unfamiliar businesses. “Unfortunately, online reviews increasingly are targeted by SLAPPs, as unscrupulous businessmen seek to censor their critics, rather than working to improve the experiences, products, or services they offer,” they note.

Free speech is a bulwark against both government and private abuses. Citizens should not be afraid to speak their minds on any topic. SLAPPs need to be slapped down sooner rather than later. 

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/1TAGDKb
via IFTTT

Brazil Lets Government Officials Enter Private Property To Hunt Zika Mosquitoes

It’s been just a few weeks since the head-shrinking Zika virus exploded onto the scene after spreading “explosively” in South and Central America, but officials are already warning that the fallout could be far-reaching.

WHO, which warned last month that the “level of alarm is extremely high”, has declared that the spread of Zika in Brazil is a public health emergency of international concern. “Members of the committee agreed that the situation meets the conditions for a public health emergency” director Margaret Chan said after meeting with WHO’s international health regulations emergency committee.

“It is important to realise that when the evidence first becomes available of such a serious condition like microcephaly and other congenital abnormalities, we need to take action, including precautionary measures,” Chan added, referencing the nearly 4,000 cases of microcephaly that have popped up in Brazil since the beginning of last year.

“Brazil has dispatched hundreds of thousands of troops on mosquito-eradication campaigns in the the worst affected areas, but the government is struggling to comprehend let alone cope with the epidemic,” The Guardian writes. “We do not have a vaccine for Zika yet. The only thing we can do is fight the mosquito,” Dilma Rousseff  told reporters during a visit to the emergency headquarters of the anti-Zika campaign. “As long as [the mosquitoes] are reproducing, we are all losing the battle. We have to mobilise to win it”.

So with no vaccine it’s Dilma versus the mosquitoes and she’s brought 220,000 troops to the fight.

Troops who, thanks to a new decree signed by Rousseff on Monday, will be able to enter private property even if no one is home in order to “eradicate breeding grounds.”


“The emergency measure will mainly open doors for state and municipal health workers sent out to destroy mosquito-breeding grounds—stagnant water typically left in buckets, drains or ditches,” WSJ said yesterday. “In other cases, Brazilian law requires authorities to obtain a warrant from a judge to enter private property without the owner present.”

Right. But no warrants are necessary when it comes to eradicating the Aedes mosquito, which is widely blamed for the scourge.  

This is the first time I remember since the start of last century, when we had the so called Vaccine War, that the government adopted a measure like this,” said Luiz Flavio Gomes, a former judge and a legal expert. “But the situation right now is dangerous and people are aware of the problem and likely to support the government’s decision.”

Yes, “people are likely to support the government’s decision,” until they come home one day to find troops and health workers donning scary-looking yellow hazmat suits rummaging through their belongings looking for mosquito “breeding grounds.”

So much like France suspended some civil liberties in order to combat “terror” in the wake of the Paris attacks, Brazil has now made it legal for authorities to enter private residences at will if Dilma thinks there may be some mosquitoes hanging out inside. 

Of course there are mosquitoes everywhere in Brazil, which means there will almost always be an excuse for officials to enter private homes on a whim if they so choose. 

We imagine the new law could come in quite handy should Brazilians start protesting in the streets for Rousseff’s removal again. As for Rousseff’s many vociferous political oponents, don’t get caught with a bucket of standing water on your porch or you just might find your house ransacked.


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1TAF2Ek Tyler Durden

The “Unintended Consequences” Have Arrived: Japan Cancels 10Y Auction Due To Sub-Zero Rates

Dear Bank of Japan, how do you spell unintended consequences:

  • PLANNED MARCH SALE OF 10-YEAR JAPANESE GOVERNMENT BONDS THROUGH BANKS TO BE CANCELED AMID EXPECTED BELOW-ZERO YIELDS – NIKKEI
  • JAPAN’S MINISTRY OF FINANCE IS EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE WEDNESDAY THE FIRST-EVER DECISION TO CALL OFF SALES OF 10-YEAR JGBS- NIKKEI

As a reminder, Japan can’t monetize more debt – the only thing that is keeping its yields from spontaneously exploding – unless it can concurrently issue more debt. After all the only reason the BOJ did NIRP is because it already faced a limit on how many bonds it can monetize.

Oooooops.

Wait, what’s that, policy failure less than 3 days after I announced NIRP? Unpossible.”

 

So… what does the most indebted country in the world do now?


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1QYnrFA Tyler Durden

The Truth Emerges: “I Never Thought I Would Wish, Or Pray, For Higher Oil Prices, But I Am”

This was not supposed to happen. None other than The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, in a research paper released in January, said that

a drop in oil prices brought about by rising supply — like the current one — should boost global growth by up to 0.4 percentage points. “This is mainly due to an increase in spending by oil-importing countries, which exceeds the decline in expenditure by oil exporters,” the paper said.

And of course, as Bloomberg reports, there is book-talker and status-quo-maintainer BlackRock Inc. Chief Executive Officer Laurence D. Fink.

“The reality is 4 billion human beings are going to have cheaper energy, cheaper heating, they’re going to have more disposable income,” Fink said last month. “And ultimately that’s going to re-accelerate the global economy. It may take six months, it may take a year but this is all good.”

So far, though, consumers in developed countries aren’t behaving as they should: spending the windfall from cheaper energy. This time around, “the pickup in consumption in oil importers has so far been somewhat weaker than evidence from past episodes of oil price declines would have suggested,” the IMF said in January.

The reason: cash-strapped consumers are using the savings to repay debts.

Furthermore, as Bloomberg adds, low oil prices have prompted companies to cancel dozens of capital-intensive projects — like drilling wells — which in turn means lower demand for machinery. Wood Mackenzie Ltd., an industry consultant, estimates that at least $380 billion has been put on hold. IHS Inc. puts it at as much as $1.5 trillion.

Whatever the amount, the IMF says the impact on investment in oil and gas new projects is “subtracting from global aggregate demand.”

So with economists desperately clinging to their textbooks – where for the last 75 years, almost every economic crisis has been preceded by an oil price spike, the worry now is that low energy prices are pushing the global economy into a tailspin.

While the idea is counter-intuitive, it’s gaining traction because a growing share of the world’s consumers and investors are in the very places getting hammered by the rout in commodities prices. Apple Inc., for example, blamed weaker sales last quarter on lower economic growth in some oil-rich countries.

 

“I never thought I would wish, let alone pray, for higher oil prices, but I am,” said Han de Jong, chief economist at ABN Amro Bank NV in Amsterdam. “The world badly needs higher oil prices.”

 

The problem is that the world’s economy relies far more today on emerging countries than 15 or 25 years ago — the last periods of ultra-low oil prices. In another twist, the U.S. has emerged to vie with Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world’s biggest oil producer. In the past, the harm done to exporters was more than offset by importers’ gains.

 

And with the exception of China and India, most big emerging countries are oil and commodities rich. From Russia to Saudi Arabia, Nigeria to Brazil, economic growth is slowing down to a crawl and, in many cases, is contracting.

“History provides reason for extreme pessimism on the likely fortunes of commodity producers,” said Gabriel Sterne, head of global macro research at Oxford Economics Ltd.


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/20EKbgB Tyler Durden

Negative Interest Rates Already In Fed’s Official Scenario

Over the past year, and certainly in the aftermath of the BOJ’s both perplexing and stunning announcement (as it revealed the central banks’ level of sheer desperation), we have warned (most recently “Negative Rates In The U.S. Are Next: Here’s Why In One Chart“)  that next in line for negative rates is the Fed itself, whether Janet Yellen wants it or not. Today, courtesy of Wolf Richter, we find that this is precisely what is already in the small print of the Fed’s future stress test scenarios, and specifically the “severely adverse scenario” where we read that:

The severely adverse scenario is characterized by a severe global recession, accompanied by a period of heightened corporate financial stress and negative yields for short-term U.S. Treasury securities.

 

As a result of the severe decline in real activity and subdued inflation, short-term Treasury rates fall to negative ½ percent by mid-2016 and remain at that level through the end of the scenario.

And so the strawman has been laid. The only missing is the admission of the several global recession, although with global GDP plunging over 5% in USD terms, we wonder just what else those who make the official determination are waiting for.

Finally, we disagree with the Fed that QE4 is not on the table: it most certainly will be once stock markets plunge by 50% as the “severely adverse scenario” envisions, and once NIRP fails to boost economic activity, as it has failed previously everywhere else it has been tried, the Fed will promtply proceed with what has worked before, if only to make the true situation that much worse.

Until then, we sit back and wait. 

Here is Wolf Richter with Negative Interest Rates Already in Fed’s Official Scenario

The Germans, with Teutonic precision, call them “Punishment Interest.” Negative interest rates are spreading from the ECB’s negative deposit rate across the bond market and to some savings accounts in the Eurozone. The idea is to enrich existing bond holders and flog savers until their mood improves. Stock prices are allowed to get crushed by reality.

Negative interest rates destroy one of the most essential mechanisms in an economy: the pricing of risk. Investors end up taking huge risks with no reward. Many of them will get cleaned out down the road.

In Switzerland, punishment interest already causes “perverse unpredictable effects,” as mortgage rates have started to soar. It’s wreaking havoc in Denmark and Sweden. Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz let the idea float that he’d unleash punishment interest to destroy the Canadian dollar. The Bank of Japan announced Friday morning – timed for maximum market effect – that it too would inflict negative interest rates on its subjects.

In the US, Ben Bernanke has been out there preaching to the choir about them. Over-indebted corporate America, except for the banks, would love this absurdity; it would allow them to actually make money off their mountain of debt.

“Potentially anything – including negative interest rates – would be on the table,” Fed Chair Janet Yellen told a House of Representatives committee in early November.

Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer has been publicly obsessing about them for a while. Monday, during the Q&A after his speech at the Council on Foreign Relations, he said that negative interest rates are “working more than I can say I expected in 2012.”

It seems to be just talk. But negative interest rates are already baked into the official scenario for 2016. It’s in the Board of Governors’ new report on the three scenarios to be used in 2016 for the annual stress test that large banks are required to undergo under the Dodd-Frank Act and the Capital Plan Rule.

The scenarios – baseline, adverse, and severely adverse – start in the first quarter 2016 and also include economic factors in the Eurozone, the UK, Japan, and the weighted aggregate of China, India, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan.

In the “severely adverse scenario,” things get interesting.

But don’t worry, the Fed emphasizes that “this is a hypothetical scenario” for the purpose of a bank stress test and “does not represent a forecast of the Federal Reserve”:

The severely adverse scenario is characterized by a severe global recession, accompanied by a period of heightened corporate financial stress and negative yields for short-term U.S. Treasury securities.

GDP begins to tank in Q1 2016 and by Q1 2017 is 6.25% below pre-recession peak. The unemployment rate hits 10% by mid-2017. Headline CPI rises from an annual rate of 0.25% in Q1 2016 to 1.25% by the end of the recession. Asset prices “drop sharply,” with stocks down “approximately 50%” through the end of this year, accompanied by a surge in volatility, “which approaches the levels attained in 2008.” Through Q2 2018, home prices plunge 25%, commercial real estate prices 30%.

“Corporate financial conditions are stressed severely, reflecting mounting credit losses, heightened investor risk aversion, and strained market liquidity conditions.” Bond spreads blow out, with the yield spread between investment-grade corporates and Treasuries jumping to 5.75% by the end of 2016.

So things are going to get ugly. And here is what the Fed is going to do next:

As a result of the severe decline in real activity and subdued inflation, short-term Treasury rates fall to negative ½ percent by mid-2016 and remain at that level through the end of the scenario.

Short-term Treasury rates can only fall to a negative 0.5% if the fed funds rate is at that level.

And the whole yield curve comes down, with the 10-year Treasury yield collapsing to 0.25% by the end of this quarter, but then “rising gradually” all the way to a whopping 0.75% by the end of the recession and to 1.75% by Q1 2019 (it’s 1.93% now).

The international component “features severe recessions” in the Eurozone, the UK, and Japan, and a mild recession in developing Asia, along with a “pronounced decline in consumer prices.”

Due to “flight-to-safety capital flows,” the dollar appreciates against the euro, the pound, and the currencies of developing Asia, but will “depreciate modestly” against the yen, “also in line with flight-to-safety capital flows.”

One of the differences between the severely adverse scenarios for 2015 and 2016? The scenario this year “features a path of negative short-term U.S. Treasury rates.”

Who are the winners? Existing holders of long-term Treasuries who will benefit from “larger gains on the existing portfolio of these securities.”

However, the Fed makes no promises about stocks, having seen the debacle playing out in Europe where stocks have plunged despite negative interest rates. And banks will get hit as “negative short-term rates may be expected to reduce banks’ net interest margins and ultimately, to lower PPNR [pre-provision net revenue].

And there you have it. The Fed already has a “path” to negative interest rates.

But note: not a single word about QE.

If the stock market crashes 50% this year, as the “severely adverse” scenario spells out, all the Fed will do is slash the fed funds rate to a negative 0.5%. And if stocks crash only 25% this year, instead of 50%?

That’s the case in the Fed’s middle scenario, the merely “adverse” scenario. Short-term rates will “remain near zero” it says – maybe slightly below where they’re right now. So no negative interest rates. And no QE either. Stocks can go to heck, the Fed is saying. It’s worried about credits, particularly high-grade credits. Junk bonds and stocks are on their own.

And this concept of switching to negative interest rates and away from QE is even in line with the Bank of Japan’s desperate head fake. Read…  QE in Japan Nears End: Daiwa Capital Markets

* * *

Don’t believe it? Here it is, straight from the Fed:


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/20EKckD Tyler Durden

Another Real Estate Market Bites the Dust – Hong Kong Prices Plunge, Transactions Hit 25-Year Low

Screen Shot 2016-02-02 at 11.39.41 AM

A stunning reversal across various global real estate hubs which have served as focal points for both international investors and criminal oligarchs, has made itself clear over the past several months. I’ve highlighted plunging sales and prices in high-end London, a multi-month slowdown in Manhattan’s luxury market, as well as a burst bubble in mansion prices in various articles over the last several months. We now have another region to add to the list: Hong Kong.

Bloomberg reports:

In a city that saw demand propel property prices to a record last year, the estimate that transactions reached a 25 year-low in Hong Kong shows how quickly sentiment has turned.

Home prices have slumped almost 10 percent since September and monthly sales in January fell to the lowest since at least 1991, according to Centaline Property Agency Ltd. Amid a spike in flexible mortgage rates this month and anemic demand for new developments, the low transactions volume for January is the latest evidence that prices have further to fall.

Talk about a reversal.

Developers are showing caution too, which could further weaken the outlook for the property market. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, two out of three government attempts to sell residential land sites through tenders since November failed after bids failed to match the minimum price.

continue reading

from Liberty Blitzkrieg http://ift.tt/1maVg9q
via IFTTT

Infographic visualizing America’s new $19 trillion debt

In case you missed it, yesterday we alerted you that the United States government has now officially accumulated $19 trillion in debt.

This time it took them just 427 days of printing to pile on this last trillion dollars, compared to the over 75,000 days it took to rack up the first trillion dollars in debt.

They’re definitely getting better at this.

The thing is—most of the mainstream new sources that have printed this news still aren’t sounding the alarm.

What is another $1 trillion in debt when the government can just keep printing?

After all, they claim, we owe it to ourselves.

And they’re right.

The government owes most of this debt to you.

YOUR pension fund.

The banks where you hold YOUR money.

The central bank that controls YOUR currency.

And once the national government is eventually pushed to default, you’re going to be the one on the hook for it.

Check out this infographic we’ve put together to see for yourself how this all breaks down:

from Sovereign Man http://ift.tt/1SCP7zQ
via IFTTT

Hillary “Flips” Off Bernie; Won Six Straight Coin Tosses In Bizarre Caucus Tiebreaker

Hillary Clinton emerged victorious in Iowa on Monday night, but it was a close call.

So close, in fact, that Bernie Sanders wants a recount.

It was “a virtual tie,” Sanders said, describing the proceedings which ended with the Vermont senator being awarded 695.49 state delegate equivalents to Clinton’s 699.57. “After thorough reporting — and analysis — of results, there is no uncertainty and Secretary Clinton has clearly won the most national and state delegates,” Clinton’s Iowa campaign manager Matt Paul said in a statement.

Sanders wants the Democratic party to release the a raw vote count, a rare move, but one he believes is necessary for full transparency.

“I honestly don’t know what happened. I know there are some precincts that have still not reported. I can only hope and expect that the count will be honest,” he said. “I have no idea. Did we win the popular vote? I don’t know, but as much information as possible should be made available.”

“People said we had an inferior ground game, that we didn’t have as good an understanding of the state,” Sanders’ campaign manager Jeff Weaver told reporters. “I think we certainly demonstrated that we had at least as good a ground game and I would argue that we had a better one because we started out [as underdogs].”

Maybe so, but Sanders’ coin flip game was certainly inferior to Clinton’s and it may have cost him a delegate or two. Or three. Or five. 

Here’s what happened in precinct 2-4 in Ames as recounted by David Schweingruber, an associate professor of sociology at Iowa State University who participated in the caucus (from The Des Moines Register):

A total of 484 eligible caucus attendees were initially recorded at the site. But when each candidate’s preference group was counted, Clinton had 240 supporters, Sanders had 179 and Martin O’Malley had five (causing him to be declared non-viable).

 

Those figures add up to just 424 participants, leaving 60 apparently missing. When those numbers were plugged into the formula that determines delegate allocations, Clinton received four delegates and Sanders received three — leaving one delegate unassigned.

 

Unable to account for that numerical discrepancy and the orphan delegate it produced, the Sanders campaign challenged the results and precinct leaders called a Democratic Party hot line set up to advise on such situations.

 

Party officials recommended they settle the dispute with a coin toss.

 

A Clinton supporter correctly called “heads” on a quarter flipped in the air, and Clinton received a fifth delegate.

 

Similar situations were reported elsewhere, including at a precinct in Des Moines, atanother precinct in Des Moinesin Newtonin West Branch  and in Davenport. In all five situations, Clinton won the toss.

When all was said and done, Clinton won six consecutive coin tosses. 

“In another race, those heads-or-tails contests may not have mattered,” The Washington Post wrote this morning. “But, early Tuesday, Clinton was ahead of Sanders in Iowa by just four “state delegate equivalents,” [and] given that slim margin and the unknown intentions of Martin O’Malley’s eight SDEs now that the former Maryland governor has suspended his presidential campaign, those coin flips are looking mighty significant.”

Here’s the absurdity caught on film as incredulous and visibly exasperated caucus goers flip for delegates.

There you have it. Efficient democratic procedures on full display in Iowa.

If that wasn’t exciting enough for you, here’s another flip clip:

It’s no wonder Sanders wants to see the raw vote. Here’s another account from Davenport courtesy of The Washington Post:

In Davenport, another precinct tied 84-84. It was time for someone to stretch out that thumb.

 

“Bernie’s side has called heads,” the coin tosser said, as documented in Davenport in a video posted by Robert Schule. As if to lend the proceedings an official air, she further explained the procedure: “I’m going to let the coin hit the floor.”

 

Gravity, of course, wins every caucus — the coin fell to Earth as expected. “No one touch it!” someone shouted. Tails again! Cheers erupted from the Clinton camp — and heads proved a loser for Sanders once more.

At the end of the day we suppose there’s a bit of symbolism here. Establishment politician or “protest” candidate, most Americans doubt any real change is coming to Washington in 2016 regardless of who prevails in the national election.

In that sense, it’s all one big coin flip anyway.


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1PSG52R Tyler Durden

The Numbers Are In: Hedge Funds Furiously Dumped The Rally; Selling Was “Biggest In Nearly Two Years”

As we wrote yesterday when reviewing the latest note from JPM’s Mislav Matejka, according to the JPM strategist not only had the window to buy stocks into the torrid S&P500 rebound closed, but traders should “start fading it within days” as JPM stuck “to the overriding view that one should use any strength as an opportunity to reduce equity allocation.”

Today, when reading the latest report by BofA’s equity and quant strategy team looking at what the “smart money” – institutions, hedge funds and private clients – are doing, we find that JPM’s advice was heeded, and the rally was indeed sold with reckless abandon.

From BofA:

Last week, during which the S&P 500 rallied another 1.8%, BofAML clients were net sellers of US stocks for the first time in five weeks, in the amount of $1.2bn. Net sales were led by hedge fund clients, who had previously been net buyers for the prior five weeks, while private clients and institutional clients were also net sellers. (Institutional clients have alternated between buying and selling in recent weeks, while private clients have been sellers for the last three weeks.)

 

Perhaps just as notable is that according to BofA, buybacks by corporate clients decelerated last week to their lowest level year-to-date, but on a four-week average basis buybacks are well above last January’s levels.

In other words, just as we suggested yesterday, much of the February buybacks expected by Goldman’s David Kostin to come to the rescue of the market, have been pulled forward into January, leaving far less dry powder available for the month of February.

What was the smart money selling?

Net sales last week were chiefly in large caps, while small caps also saw outflows; clients continued to buy mid-cap. Previously, all three size segments had seen net buying every week of 2016.

Among the details, one sector stands out: recent hedge fund darling, the healthcare sector, is seeing a furious exit by existing holders with sales “the biggest in seven months and the third-largest in our data history” as what worked until now no longer works. Tech was also slammed and sakes were “the largest in fifteen months and the fourth-largest in our data history.”

Net sales last week were led by Tech and Health Care stocks, despite overall 4Q earnings for these sectors coming in better than expected. Health Care—which has been one of the most crowded sectors within the S&P 500—was the worst-performing sector last week, and we’ve noted that revision and surprise trends have been rolling over for this sector. This is the only sector with a multi-week net selling trend, and outflows from Health Care stocks last week were the biggest in seven months and the third-largest in our data history (since ’08), led by hedge funds. Sales of Tech were the largest in fifteen months and the fourth-largest in our data history, led by institutional clients. Energy stocks saw the biggest net buying by our clients last week amid the rally in oil prices; with inflows from all three client groups. This sector has now seen four consecutive weeks of buying by our clients, suggesting increasing conviction that oil has bottomed. Financials stocks also saw net buying for the fifth consecutive week amid the sell-off in this sector, while clients also continued to buy Telecom stocks for the fifth week.

 

But nobody sold more than the very pinnacle of smart money: hedge fund investors, where “net sales last week by hedge funds were the biggest in nearly two years and the fourth-largest in our data history. This follows  near-record levels of net buying by this group in early January.”

One final observation:

“overall for the month of January, clients were net buyers of single stocks, while ETFs saw more muted net buying. This would be the first year in our data history (since ’08) that clients bought single stocks.”

A return to normalcy perhaps?

Finally, while weekly flows tend to be notoriously volatile, the long-term trend across all three investor classes are ver clear.


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1o3bYt7 Tyler Durden