Tag: news

While many Wall Street traders expecting Trump to unveil details of his economic plan went to bed empty handed last night, that was not enough to halt the market rally with the narrative shifting to Trump’s “measured”, “presidential” tone in which he offered an olive branch to both Democrats and Republicans in Congress while promising to make concessions. Trump urged Americans to abandon conflict and help him remake the fabric of the country, a moment he hopes will turn the page on his administration’s chaotic beginning and bring clarity to his policy agenda. He offered few new proposals and made no suggestions on how he would pay for his plans, including a replacement of Obamacare, a tax overhaul including cuts for the middle class, $1 trillion in infrastructure investment and a large increase in defense spending.

“The market has been looking for reassurance that Trump intends to follow through on his campaign promises for fiscal spending, tax cuts and deregulation,” said James Woods, global investment analyst at Rivkin in Sydney. “He mentioned these policies but did not provide any actual details or time lines, which is what investors are looking for.”

For markets, the speech – either positive or negative – was overshadowed by comments from a handful of Federal Reserve policymakers, who suggested a March rate hike is live, contrary to market expectations. As a result,  have tumbled, and global stocks surged following yesterday’s barrage of hawkish Fed speakers, especially Bill Dudley, who in the span of an hour managed to reprice March rate hike odds from just over 50% to 80%, meaning a March rate hike is now in play.

For those who missed it, here is a summary of Tuesday’s Fed talking heads, and what they said:

• Fed’s Dudley (Voter, Dove) said the case for rate hikes is more compelling.
• Fed’s Kaplan (Voter, Neutral) said the rate path is more important than timing of the next hike.
• Fed’s Williams (Non-Voter, Hawk) sees a March hike getting serious consideration. Williams also added he still is comfortable with 3 hikes this year and does not see need to delay rate hike.
• Fed’s Bullard (Non-Voter, Dove) stated that the Fed has essentially reached its dual mandate and should allow the balance sheet to normalize naturally. Bullard also added that the policy rate can stay relatively low over the horizon and that he still expects 2% growth, thus no reason to be aggressive on rate hikes

The most hawkish comments were out of both Dudley and Williams. In an interview with CNN, the usually dovish NY Fed President Dudley said that the case for tightening has become “a lot more compelling in recent months” and that “risks to the outlook are now starting to tilt to the upside”. Dudley was also quoted as saying that “animal spirits have been unleashed a bit post the election” and that “there’s no question sentiment has improved quite markedly”. He also said that 3-4% GDP growth in the medium term is possible should we see further improvement in productivity. Shortly before that San Francisco Fed President Williams said that a March hike is getting “serious consideration” given that the Fed is “very close” to achieving its dual mandate goals. 

As expected, March hikes odds soared, rising as much as 80% after the barrage of hawks:

With March odds soaring to approximately 80% percent, they pushed the dollar higher and sent Treasuries lower.

Additionally, strong data out of China, where most PMIs came in better than expected, has eased concerns about China’s economy. The rundown:

• China’s Official Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 51.6 vs. Exp. 51.2 (Prey. 51.3).
• Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 54.2 (Prey. 54.6);4-monthlow.
• Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 51.7 vs. Exp. 50.8 (Prey. 51.0).

Back to Trump: in a nutshell the long awaited Trump address had a familiar ‘America first’ theme throughout and plenty of echoes of his inaugural address. However the disappointment market wise has been the lack of detail. But there did seem to be a big effort to sound presidential. In terms of what we did get, the President returned again to the subject of rebuilding infrastructure, highlighting that he will be asking Congress to approve legislation that produces a $1tn investment financed through both public and private capital and guided by the principals of “hire American and buy American”. Trump also reconfirmed that he intends to repeal and replace Obamacare, increase defence spending, enforce immigration laws and also overhaul tax including cuts for the middle class. The tax subject was only really lightly touched. Trump said that his economic team is developing a “historic tax reform that will reduce the tax rate on our companies so that they can compete and thrive anywhere and with anyone” and also “at the same time provide massive tax relief for the middle class”. There was no specific mention whatsoever of the much anticipated border-adjusted tax. Another subject of much debate, bank regulation, was also avoided.

Overall, a speech that while disappointing on one hand (lack of specifics) was greeted as perhaps a return to Trump’s conciliatory, “presidential-sounding” roots. So as investors moved on from President Donald Trump’s address to Congress, shifting their focus to the timing of a U.S. rate increase as the dollar strengthened, stocks surged and bonds tumbled.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed the most in three weeks, the yield on 10-year Treasuries rose and European banking stocks gained after odds jumped for a Federal Reserve rate increase this month. Shares of commodity producers found support from a report indicating improving health for Chinese manufacturing which also helped prices for raw material exports.

“Fed speakers trump Trump,” Richard McGuire, the head of rates strategy at Rabobank International in London, wrote in a note. Trump’s speech lacked “fresh content for the market to trade off, with big tax cuts, deregulation and an infrastructure plan being mentioned but not supported by any details. Given this, all focus instead turned to the slew of hawkish rhetoric from Fed speakers.”

The dollar index climbed as much as 0.7 percent to its highest levels in seven weeks, having also been helped by data showing robust U.S. consumer spending.

“After dominating the markets since November, President Trump could now fade into the background as the focus shifts to the Fed and the prospect of rate increases,” said Kathleen Brooks, Research Director at City Index in London. “Fed members don’t just let words slip out when they speak to the press – this was a message for the markets, and the markets have duly reacted.”

European shares gained, with basic resources the top-performers on Trump’s promise of $1 trillion of infrastructure spending. The STOXX 600 index rose over 1 percent, with Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 outperforming peers to climb 1.3 percent and 1.4 percent respectively, helped by strong company earnings reports. European stocks climbed the most since Feb. 1 as all industry sectors advanced. A gauge of banks gained 2 percent, leading the advance, while basic resources shares rose 1.9 percent.

Japan’s Topix index increased 1.2 percent, propelled by a weaker yen towards the the biggest rally in more than two weeks.  The Shanghai Composite Index added 0.2 percent after data on the producer price rebound, giving top officials gathering in Beijing a solid economic backdrop as they seek to rein in financial risks. 

The global MSCI ACWI index, which has risen more than 10 percent since Trump’s election in November, was flat, with gains in Europe offsetting earlier falls on Asian and U.S. bourses. The MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dipped 0.2 percent.

Futures on the S&P 500 Index added 0.5 percent, after the Dow Jones Industrial Average snapped a 12-day winning streak to close down 0.1 percent in the prior session. The S&P500 finished February with its best monthly gain since March, climbing 3.7
percent.

In commodity markets, crude oil prices lost more ground, with rising U.S. oil output adding pressure on the market, although OPEC production cuts continued to offer support. The stronger dollar weighed on gold, which dropped 0.3 percent to 1,244.36 an ounce, extending Tuesday’s decline.

 2Y Treasury yields jumped to 1.304%, the highest since December, to match their highest levels since 2009. The gap between them and their German equivalents increased to its widest since 2000. Yields on 10-year Treasuries rose three basis points to 2.42 percent, climbing for a third straight day. Yields on benchmark German bonds climbed four basis points to 0.25 percent after a report showed unemployment continued to decline. Yields on French benchmarks and gilts both rose three basis points.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 2,375.50
• STOXX Europe 600 up 1% to 373.75
• MXAP down 0.3% to 144.70
• MXAPJ down 0.3% to 464.87
• Nikkei up 1.4% to 19,393.54
• Topix up 1.2% to 1,553.09
• Hang Seng Index up 0.2% to 23,776.49
• Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,246.93
• Sensex up 0.9% to 28,990.65
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 5,704.80
• Kospi up 0.3% to 2,091.64
• Brent Futures up 0.5% to $56.81/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,244.68
• U.S. Dollar Index up 0.6% to 101.68
• US 10Y Yield
• German 10Y yield rose 4.1 bps to 0.249%
• Euro down 0.3% to 1.0540 per US$
• Brent Futures up 0.5% to $56.81/bbl
• Italian 10Y yield fell 4.8 bps to 2.086%
• Spanish 10Y yield rose 3.1 bps to 1.686%

Top Overnight News via BBG

• Trump’s Softer Tone Masks Hard Road Ahead for Agenda in Congress; Trump’s Scant Specifics Leave Questions on His Border-Tax Plans
• Comcast Targets Asia With Harry Potter-Featured Theme Park Deal
• Ahold Delhaize Profit Beats Analyst Estimates on Cost Cuts
• AMC Cinemas Beefs Up Marketing With Dine-In, Bottomless Popcorn
• Snap’s Investors Could Pile On Then Disappear After the IPO
• Hamilton Lane Prices 11.9m-Share IPO at $16: IPO Boutique
• Time Inc. Said to Ask Suitors to Submit Offers by Next Week
• TD Ameritrade Cuts Pricing Fee to $6.95 for Online Equity Trades
• World’s Second-Largest Copper Mine to Resume Some Operations
• Iberiabank Sees Sabadell United Deal 6% Accretive to 2018 EPS
• Apollo Commercial Got Justice Department Information Request
• Orexo Commences Patent Infringement Litigation Against Actavis
• Avianca Says It Hasn’t Been Notified of Lawsuit by Kingsland
• Femsa Sees Capex of About $1.3b in 2017
• Volkswagen Closes $256 Million Acquisition of Navistar Stake
• Euro-Area Manufacturing Picks Up as Inflation Pressures Build
• Toshiba Said to Seek Bids for Chip Unit at $13 Billion Value

Asia equity markets traded higher as the region digested a deluge of data including better than expected Chinese PMIs figures. Despite this, ASX 200 (-0.1%) was dampened by the negative lead from Wall St where the DJIA snapped a 12-day win streak, while better than expected Australian GDP also failed to inspire as the strong data also reduces prospects of future RBA action. Nikkei 225 (+1.4%) was underpinned by a weaker JPY, while Shanghai Comp (+0.3%) and Hang Seng (+0.2%) gained after the latest PMI figures in which the Official Manufacturing PMI and Caixin Manufacturing PMI surpassed estimates, although upside was capped on a weak PBoC liquidity operation and after Non-Manufacturing PMI fell to a 4-month low. 10yr JGBs saw spill-over selling from T-notes which were weakened following hawkish Fed comments that suggested a March hike was firmly on the table, while the BoJ’s Rinban announcement also added to the pressure as the central bank reduced its purchases in 1yr-3yr and 3yr-5yr government debt.

Top Asian News

• China Plans to Cut 500,000 Jobs This Year in Smokestack Sectors
• China’s Factory Gauge Strengthens as Producer Prices Rebound
• China’s Policy Balancing Act Faces Bumps as Bond Pain Swells
• Hedge Fund Oasis’s Wosner Named Director of Premier Foods
• Hong Kong Stocks Eke Out Gains as Galaxy Reports Higher Earnings
• Foxconn’s Gou Says Very Serious About Bid for Toshiba Chip Unit
• Being a Woman Means 43% Less Pay Than Men on Singapore Boards
• Stock Investors Have Seven Reasons to Be Cheerful: Markets Live
• Bouncing Back From Cash Ban, India Chasing V-Shaped Recovery

European bourses were also propelled higher, with the Stoxx 600 index rising more than 1%, after a barrage of hawkish comments from FOMC members yesterday has supported EU bourses in tandem with US equity futures with notable outperformance in financial names as the futures market raised the probability of a March hike (pricing stands at 80%). While markets were somewhat unresponsive to President Trumps speech in congress who failed to provide any significant surprises. Elsewhere, despite the build in API’s overnight, WTI and Brent crude futures are at elevated levels amid increased optimism over the prospects of the US economy. In fixed income markets, the overnight weakness in treasuries saw bunds opened lower, while the gains in equities have also weighed on prices. While the German curve has seen some notable bear steepening this morning, elsewhere the GE-FR spread is a touch tighter with reports that Presidential candidate Fillon called to speak to judges over probes in fake jobs. Additionally, he will give a speech at 1100GMT.

Top European News

• Euro-Area Manufacturing Picks Up as Inflation Pressures Build
• U.K. Manufacturing Growth Weakens as Price Pressures Slip
• German Unemployment Declines as Confidence in Economy Improves
• BP Targets $40 Break-Even Oil Price to Reassure Investors
• FCA to Overhaul IPO Information Flow Over Conflict Concerns
• CRH Capacity for Buys EU2b-EU3b in Next 18 Months, CEO Says
• London Home Price Cuts Spread and Deepen as Market Stagnates
• French Candidate Fillon Called in to Speak to Judges, JDD Says
• OATs Dip After Fillon Said to Continue Presidential Race
• European Miners Rebound as China Economic Data Spur Optimism
• Fillon Wife in Custody, Search Ongoing: Mediapart
• U.K. Consumer Borrowing Remains Below Average as Confidence Ebbs

In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index jumped 0.4 percent as of 9:53 a.m. in London, climbing for a fourth straight day and heading for the biggest advance since Feb. 7. The yen slumped 0.7 percent to 113.52 per dollar, for a third day of losses. The euro fell 0.3 percent to $1.0545 and the British pound was little changed at $1.2383 after slipping 0.5 percent Tuesday.FX markets have followed the lead set by Fed members Williams and Dudley yesterday, setting the USD free on the upside as has been threatening given the US rate profile. Along with hesitancy over president Trump’s general conduct and communication, the market has been split between the prospect of 2 or 3 rate hikes this year, but with March now firmly on the table, the short end of the Treasury yield curve has rallied, putting the 2yr back to the highs just shy of 1.30%. Gains in the belly look a little more reluctant, and the modest 5-6bp rise in the 10yr sees USD/JPY back in the mid 113.00’s, but struggling ahead of 114.00. EUR/USD has been pulled back into mid-low 1.0500’s, but sizeable expiries in the 1.0500-50 area look to be containing for now. German regional inflation rates are all higher, but within expectation levels, while unemployment was also largely as expected.

In commodities, gold dropped for a third day, falling 0.3 percent to $1,244.66 an ounce after completing a 3.1 percent gain in February. West Texas Intermediate Crude rose 0.5 percent to $54.26. Oil ended last month 2.3 percent higher. Copper added 1.7 percent, advancing for a fourth straight session. Oil prices have edged higher despite the impact of a stronger USD, but near term price action is all base on production cuts, with strong compliance to the agreement from OPEC members edging towards 95%. Non OPEC members are lagging according to the latest figures, but sources suggest the current path will lead to WTI rising to USD60.00. In light of this, hesitant gains through USD55.00 may be taking this into account, but price stability will clearly be welcomed all round. Precious metals have softened inversely with the USD, with Gold now trading just under USD1245.00, with Silver dipping to USD18.24/5 before finding support. Base metals find support from the latest China manufacturing stats — Copper rising close to 2% on the day, but Zinc outperforming 2.5% up on the day. Zinc prices still set to rise higher on mine closures, but the latest appointment of the environment minister has/is running into some opposition.

In terms of the day ahead, while the bulk of the attention will be on Trump’s speech there is still a reasonable amount of data to get through. Much of the focus will be on the January personal spending and income reports, alongside the core and deflator PCE readings. Also due out is the ISM manufacturing print for February as well as the final manufacturing PMI revision, while construction spending and vehicle sales round out the releases. If that wasn’t enough already, the Fed’s Beige Book is also due out this evening while Kaplan (6pm GMT) and Brainard (11pm GMT) are both due to speak.

US Event Calendar

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales, est. 17.7m, prior 17.5m; Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales, est. 13.7m, prior 13.6m
• 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -2.0%
• 8:30am: Personal Income, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%;  Personal Spending, est. 0.3%, prior 0.5%
• 8:30am: Real Personal Spending, est. -0.1%, prior 0.3%; PCE Deflator MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.2%; PCE Deflator YoY, est. 2.0%, prior 1.6%; PCE Core MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%; PCE Core YoY, est. 1.7%, prior 1.7%
• 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 54.5, prior 54.3
• 10am: ISM Manufacturing, est. 56.2, prior 56; ISM Prices Paid, est. 68, prior 69; ISM New Orders, prior 60.4; ISM Employment, prior 56.1
• 10am: Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.6%, prior -0.2%
• 1pm: Fed’s Kaplan Speaks in Dallas
• 2pm: U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
• 2pm: U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
• 6pm: Fed’s Brainard Speaks at Harvard

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Welcome to a new month and in reality only one place to start this morning and that is President Trump’s prime time address to Congress that started at 9pm EST last night. Before we delve into the details a reminder that as it’s the first of the month we’ll be doing our usual performance review at the end with all the tables and charts in the PDF. It’s our second performance review in a row as yesterday we looked back on 10 years of the EMR and looked at how assets have performed over what is essentially the period since the start of the financial crisis in February 2007. So if you missed it, see yesterday’s EMR at your leisure.

So in a nutshell the long awaited Trump address had a familiar ‘America first’ theme throughout and plenty of echoes of his inaugural address. However the disappointment market wise has been the lack of detail. But there did seem to be a big effort to sound presidential. In terms of what we did get, the President returned again to the subject of rebuilding infrastructure, highlighting that he will be asking Congress to approve legislation that produces a $1tn investment financed through both public and private capital and guided by the principals of “hire American and buy American”. Trump also reconfirmed that he intends to repeal and replace Obamacare, increase defence spending, enforce immigration laws and also overhaul tax including cuts for the middle class. The tax subject was only really lightly touched. Trump said that his economic team is developing a “historic tax reform that will reduce the tax rate on our companies so that they can compete and thrive anywhere and with anyone” and also “at the same time provide massive tax relief for the middle class”. There was no specific mention whatsoever of the much anticipated border-adjusted tax. Another subject of much debate, bank regulation, was also avoided.

Markets in Asia are mostly higher following Trump’s speech. The Nikkei (+1.03%), Hang Seng (+0.17%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.38%) are all up although the ASX (-0.13%) has struggled slightly. US equity index futures are also up +0.20% although they are little changed relative to the minutes prior to Trump speaking. Rates have crept higher however that may in part be to do with the Fedspeak late last night which we’ll touch on shortly. 2y yields are up +3.6bps and 10y yields up +2.9bps. The Dollar index is +0.45%, Gold (-0.42%) is weaker and other commodities little changed. We may have to wait for the European session to really kick in though for markets to digest the speech.

It would be fairly easy to wrap up here and move on to today’s calendar given that for the most part yesterday’s session was a fairly dull one and essentially just preparing the stage for Trump. However, there was some last minute month end excitement as after the US close we got some pretty hawkish comments out of both the Fed’s Dudley and Williams. In an interview with CNN, the usually dovish NY Fed President Dudley said that the case for tightening has become “a lot more compelling in recent months” and that “risks to the outlook are now starting to tilt to the upside”. Dudley was also quoted as saying that “animal spirits have been unleashed a bit post the election” and that “there’s no question sentiment has improved quite markedly”. He also said that 3-4% GDP growth in the medium term is possible should we see further improvement in productivity. Shortly before that San Francisco Fed President Williams said that a March hike is getting “serious consideration” given that the Fed is “very close” to achieving its dual mandate goals.

After trading fairly flat for much of the session short-end Treasury yields spiked in the last 30 minutes or so (and have continued to rise this morning as highlighted above). 2y yields closed 6.6bps higher at 1.260% and 5y yields finished 6.4bps higher at 1.929%. 10y yields also ended 2.5bps higher at 2.390%. Unsurprisingly Fed Funds contracts were also on the move with the March contract now at 0.750% (+3.5bps). It’s worth noting that one of the more dovish Fed officials, Lael Brainard, is due to speak this evening, while Fed Chair Yellen then speaks on Friday. The imperfect Bloomberg calculator (which overstates the chances but offers a good history of pricing) has also seen the March hike probability jump to 80% this morning from 52% yesterday and just 40% at the end of last week. Prior to that excitement, equity markets had largely limped through much of the session. The Dow (-0.12%) finally brought to an end a streak of 12 consecutive record highs while the S&P 500 (-0.26%) also finished in the red not helped by Senate Finance Chairman Orrin Hatch telling CNBC that he has real reservations about the border adjustment tax. In Europe the Stoxx 600 (+0.19%) recovered from a slow start. Commodities were generally a non-event for much of the session.

The rest of yesterday’s session was largely focused on the data. In the US the main release was the second estimate of Q4 GDP which came in at an unrevised +1.9% qoq annualized. The consensus had been for an upward revision to +2.1%. In the details growth in final sales was unrevised at +0.9% while personal consumption was revised up five-tenths to +3.0%. This was offset by a 1.1pt downward revision for  business investment to +1.3% while the core PCE was also revised down one-tenth to +1.2%. Away from that there was some good news in the latest consumer confidence reading for February which was revealed as rising 3.2pts to 114.8 (vs. 111.0 expected) and the highest since July 2001. The Chicago PMI also surprised to the upside with the index up 7.1pts to 57.4 (vs. 53.5 expected) in February and the highest since January 2015. The Richmond Fed manufacturing index reading also rose 5pts to +17. Finally the advance goods trade balance reading in January revealed a wider than expected deficit ($69.2bn vs. $66.0bn expected). Over in Europe the only notable data came from France where headline CPI was revealed as rising a fairly benign +0.1% mom in February (vs. +0.4% expected). Q4 GDP did however come in as expected at +0.4% qoq.

Quickly coming back to Asia, this morning we also had some data out of China which very much played second fiddle to Trump. The official manufacturing PMI was confirmed as rising 0.3pts to 51.6 in February (vs. 51.2 expected) while the non-manufacturing PMI declined 0.4pts to 54.2. The Caixin manufacturing PMI also came in at 51.7 and up 0.7pts from January.

In terms of the day ahead, while the bulk of the attention will be on Trump’s speech there is still a reasonable amount of data to get through. The European session will also see a continuation of the February PMI releases with the final manufacturing prints to be confirmed alongside a first look at the data for the periphery and UK. We’ll also get the February CPI report in Germany as well money and credit aggregates data in the UK. It’s set to be another busy afternoon for data releases in the US again too. Much of the focus will be on the January personal spending and income reports, alongside the core and deflator PCE readings. Also due out is the ISM manufacturing print for February as well as the final manufacturing PMI revision, while construction spending and vehicle sales round out the releases. If that wasn’t enough already, the Fed’s Beige Book is also due out this evening while Kaplan (6pm GMT) and Brainard (11pm GMT) are both due to speak.

via http://ift.tt/2mJYS3c Tyler Durden

In his much anticipated address to Congress that was widely described as “presidential” avoiding attacks on the media and Democrat opponents, even if once again thin on detail, President Donald Trump reaffirmed his pledge on infrastructure, defense spending and tax overhaul, in broad brush strokes, and judging by the surging futures and US Dollar this morning, investors are giving him the benefit of the doubt for now. 

Among the more notable economic highlight, Trump flagged plans for $1 trillion in infrastructure investment, and repeated earlier comments on trade and corporate tax reform without giving details. After the speech, the dollar extended gains as investors refocus on comments by Fed officials, which have spurred market expectations for a possible interest rate increase as soon as this month with March rate hike odds soaring yesterday.

Before we breakdown Wall Street’s take of Trump’s speech, here is a list of the 12 key things that mattered in Trump’s speech courtesy of Axios:

A rundown of what to note from Trump’s first address to a joint session of Congress.

1. Tone: The speech was, by some distance, his most “presidential” since running for the office. He was totally on message, controlled, uncaffeinated, un-Trumpian.
2. Breaking the ice: Trump began his speech with riffs on Black History, civil rights, and a condemnation of anti-Semitic violence. He received standing ovations.
3. Head fake on immigration: As we reported, there was no way Trump was going to have a conversion to Jeb Bush-style immigration reform. He spent much of the speech highlighting the crimes committed by immigrants in the country illegally, and he gave no concessions on immigration
4. Declined to endorse the border adjustment tax: “We must create a level playing field for American companies and workers. Currently, when we ship products out of America, many other countries make us pay very high tariffs and taxes — but when foreign companies ship their products into America, we charge them almost nothing.”
5. More detail on healthcare: Trump gave Speaker Paul Ryan a big win by listing some components of the House GOP plan — and, as we forecast, the big one was tax credits. See David Nather’s analysis.
6. Says his budget will increase funding for veterans. A well-received line: “Our veterans have delivered for this Nation –- and now we must deliver for them.”
7. Crucial language on infrastructure: “To launch our national rebuilding, I will be asking the Congress to approve legislation that produces a $1 trillion investment in the infrastructure of the United States — financed through both public and private capital –- creating millions of new jobs.” The key phrase — “that produces” — coupled with the mention of private capital — means the Bernie Sanders dream of $1 trillion in new government spending remains a fantasy.
   Sought to tie the African-American experience to nationalism: “We’ve financed and built one global project after another, but ignored the fates of our children in the inner cities of Chicago, Baltimore, Detroit — and so many other places throughout our land.”
8. Promises: Listed pledges made and kept. He gave plenty of applause lines for (at least some) Democrats, including withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal and his request that “new American pipelines be made with American steel.”
9. “Radical Islamic Terrorism”: Trump is still using the phrase, despite the reported disapproval of his new national security advisor.
10. NATO: Trump made a happy man of Defense Secretary Mattis and the rest of the foreign policy establishment, which has worried about his previous comments that NATO is “obsolete.” Tonight, Trump said: “We strongly support NATO, an alliance forged through the bonds of two World Wars that dethroned fascism, and a Cold War that defeated communism. But our partners must meet their financial obligations.”
11. A emotional moment — and the longest applause of the night: “We are blessed to be joined tonight by Carryn Owens, the widow of a U.S. Navy Special Operator, Senior Chief William “Ryan” Owens. Ryan died as he lived: a warrior, and a hero –- battling against terrorism and securing our Nation.”

And here are select excerpts from Wall Street analysts giving their first impressions of the Trump address:

TD Securities (Priya Misra)

• Speech was risk positive and reiterated pro-growth policy
• Market has given administration benefit of doubt and could continue for a little longer
• Equities may look “vulnerable” if markets don’t get details and progress on tax reform

Matsui Securities (Tomoichiro Kubota)

• Drug prices comment negative, though not particularly surprising
• Investors may switch even more to equities from bonds if Trump’s policies are put into practice

BDO Unibank (Jonathan Ravelas)

• Speech “very general, disappointing investors looking for specifics”
• Uncertainty continues as potential reforms are still work in progress
• U.S. and global markets are in limbo and will stay in consolidation in short term, given lack of reform details
• Next focus will be Fed

Rivkin Securities (William O’Loughlin)

• Trump’s speech was “enough to keep the optimism alive”
• Investors are now “just expecting that sometime in the near future he will give specifics”

Societe Generale (Kyosuke Suzuki, head of FX & money-market sales)

• Positions largely squared ahead of this event and in absence of any negative comments from Trump, USD is underpinned for now by expectations for a Fed rate hike this month
• With timeline for tax and budget already known, and markets having little expectations for any details to come out of Trump’s speech, focus is turning to a slew of monetary, budget and currency events in mid-March

Scotiabank (Qi Gao, FX strategist )

• “Dollar retreated somewhat during Trump’s speech, partly due to profit-taking. His speech hasn’t spurred another wave of Trumpflation trade. He repeated what he said before. We are awaiting Yellen’s speech due at 2am HKT on Saturday.”

National Australia Bank (Julian Wee, senior market strategist)

• Speech contains little that’s new and “what might be more pertinent for EM Asian FX is the presence of an overt protectionist tone, which would be supportive of USD/Asia”
• Still, the lack of details on many of his plans and how they will be funded will dominate market sentiment
• “Chances are this delicate balance between the two factors could remain for the near future given almost no mention has been made of how all this spending will be funded, leading to the USD/Asia remaining relatively directionless”

Mizuho Bank (Vishnu Varathan, economist)

• Emphasis on immigration, with skew toward skilled immigration, suggests wage pressures will be reinforced
• “All else being equal, this should be bearish for bonds and bullish for the dollar. Yet the ‘fair trade’ stance could suggest that too much dollar strength will face criticisms so there’s a rather twitchy path for dollar bulls”
• Dollar upside will be susceptible to spurts of reversals; long dollar bets will be fraught with fears of jawboning and EM currencies could be knocked back for now
• Cost-reduction emphasis also sets up yields and the dollar for two-way swings

Oanda Corp (Jeffrey Halley)

• Speech that was high on rhetoric and low on detail has been mostly built into the USD price already and bulls may be slightly disappointed
• “I would expect a ‘no news is good news response’ in EMFX today with most regionals to stay gently bid against the USD. Key now will be Yellen’s speech Friday and if hawkish, will see the March FOMC meeting unexpectedly ‘live’ ”

via http://ift.tt/2mE5wsA Tyler Durden

Via Peter Korzun of The Strategic Culture Foundation,

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has signed an outline agreement to buy Russian aircraft. It also plans to implement a joint project with Russia to develop a next-generation fighter that could enter service in seven or eight years.

According to Russian Industry and Trade Minister Denis Manturov, who led the Russian delegation at the IDEX 2017 exhibition, the UAE is to purchase a batch of advanced Sukhoi Su-35 Flanker-E fighters.

«We signed an agreement of intent for the purchase of the Su-35», Sergei Chemezov, CEO of Rostec Corporation, told Russian news agency TASS. He did not provide details about the deal. A total of 24 Su-35 fighters were sold to China under the first export contract.

The significance of signing ceremony was illustrated by the fact that it was attended by Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces. As reported, the agreement «provides for procurement, development and partial manufacturing of advanced air, land and naval equipment to serve the requirements of the UAE armed forces».

According to The National Interest, «More troubling for the United States, the deal is an indication that the UAE—a long-time U.S. ally—is drifting into Moscow’s orbit».

According to Mr. Chemezov, work on the fifth generation joint light fighter is to start as early as 2018. The aircraft is expected to be a variation of the MiG-29 fighter jet. The future warplane proposed by Russia would be built in the UAE »full cycle» following completion of design work and the production of test aircraft. The memorandum of understanding between Russia and the UAE to jointly develop the fighter aircraft follows a similar fighter jet collaboration deal agreed between Russia and India last year.

The Su-35 is a multifunctional 4++ generation fighter, employing fifth-generation combat avionics. The one seater two-engine high-wing aircraft features a retractable tricycle-type landing gear and nose gear strut. Equipped with AL-41F1S turbojet engines with an afterburner and a controlled thrust vector, it is capable of «pivot turning» and deceiving enemy missiles.

The plane boasts a maximum speed of 2,400 km/h. Its maximum flying range is 3,600 km without external fuel tanks and 4,500 km with external fuel tanks. The service ceiling is 20,000 meters. The specifications allow it to easily outrun every Western fighter.

The aircraft has 12 external bays for precision missiles and air bombs and two bays for electronic warfare containers.

The armament includes 30mm guns, a huge number of missiles and rockets. The combat load is 8 tons. It has 12 hardpoints for carrying external weapons and stores. The aircraft would be launching its weapons from high supersonic speeds around Mach 1.5 at altitudes greater than 45,000 feet. This means the missiles could reach with their targets faster, giving opponents less time to maneuver or respond in kind.

Military experts are especially impressed with the Su-35's sophisticated phased-array radar control system Irbis-E, which allows the plane to detect targets at distances of up to 400 kilometers. It can simultaneously track up to four ground targets or up to 30 airborne targets, as well as engage up to eight airborne targets at the same time. The radar has a friend-or-foe identification capability for aerial and maritime objects. It is capable of identifying the class and type of airborne targets and can take aerial photos of the ground. An oscillator with peak power output of 20 kW used in the passive phased array radar makes Irbis-E the most powerful radar control system on par with the best international designs, and ahead of most US and European active and passive phased array radars.

The aircraft is also equipped with «Khibiny-M» – a state-of-the-art electronic warfare equipment, which includes a radar warning system, radar jammer, co-operative radar jamming system, missile approach warner, laser warner and chaff and flare dispenser. A relatively small container in the shape of a torpedo is mounted on the wingtips of the aircraft to make the jets invulnerable to all modern means of defense and enemy fighters.

The pilot has two VHF/UHF encrypted radio communications systems and a jam-resistant military data link system between squadron aircraft and between the aircraft and ground control. The navigation system is based on a digital map display with a strapdown inertial navigation system and global positioning system.

High-strength, low-weight, composite materials have been used for non-structural items such as the radomes, nose wheel, door and leading-edge flaps. Some of the fuselage structures are of carbon fibre and aluminium lithium alloy.

The aircraft was deployed to Syria a year ago.

German magazine Stern stated that the Su-35 can be considered the world's deadliest fighter jet other than the fifth-generation US F-22.

The UAE has already purchased Russian ground weapons, such as BMP-3 infantry combat vehicles and Pantsir S1 air-defense systems. The acquisition of the military aircraft is another big step on the way of developing military cooperation with Russia.

The Emirates is not the only Russian customer in the Persian Gulf. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Qatar’s State Minister for Defense Khalid bin Mohammad Al Attiyah signed a military cooperation agreement in September on the sidelines of the Army-2016 international military-technical forum in Kubinka near Moscow.

Kuwait and the UAE have purchased Russian infantry fighting vehicles.

Saudi Arabia has expressed interest in Russian "Iskander-E" short-range ballistic missiles, S-400 long-range air defense systems, missile patrol boats and medium landing ships. Saudi Arabia paid for Russian arms supplies to Egypt.

The Su-35 and the fifth generation aircraft deal with the UAE reflects the fact that Russia’s geopolitical influence and soft power in the Persian Gulf has increased recently. It is not limited to military cooperation only.

A $10 billion package deal has been signed between Russia and Saudi Arabia on various projects. As part of the agreement, Russia too will invest in the Saudi Arabian market. President Putin met with King Salman in Antalya in November 2015, and with Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman Al Saud in June 2015 in St. Petersburg, as well as in October of the same year in Sochi.

Russian energy giant Gazprom has expanded its cooperation with Qatargas on liquefied natural gas production. Trade with Oman has grown exponentially. Businessmen from the UAE have invested in the infrastructure for the 2014 winter Olympic games in Sochi. They took part in the construction of a major port near St. Petersburg and cooperated with Rosneft in pipeline construction projects. Political contacts are also intensive.

The relations with Bahrain are on the rise in all spheres. His Majesty the King Hamad has visited Russia four times during the last six years.

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states GCC countries did not join the United States and the EU in imposing economic sanctions against Russia over Ukraine. Moscow has said many times it would welcome the formation of a broad-based Arab coalition around a political solution to the Syrian crisis.

The growing cooperation with the Arab states of the Persian Gulf are part of the broader process, with Russia’s foothold strengthened in the Middle East amid the tectonic changes taking place to change the political landscape of the region.

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It wasn’t the Russians, it was the auditors…

 

Source: Townhall.com

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Via Joshua Krause of ReadyNutrition.com,

Imagine if you will, what would happen if you pulled an American family from the 19th century, and plopped them in the middle of downtown Los Angeles during rush hour. They’re not given a warning, they’re not given any kind of primer on what they’re about to experience, and the occurrence is completely inexplicable. How long do you suppose they would last before they cried uncle? Would they even survive? The odds probably aren’t so good.

Of course, the reverse is probably also true. If you and your family were wrenched from the comforts of the present and hurled back into a previous era, you might not fare so well either. Your survival odds would probably be a little better since you have hindsight and an understanding of germ theory. However, it would still be a pretty alien world for you. It would be littered with pitfalls that most modern people can’t even imagine. 

6 Totally Insane Things That Will Happen If Our Power Grid Goes Down

And that’s why it’s so important for everyone to prepare for the possibility that one day our grid could go down in a big way, whether it be from a terrorist attack, cyber attack, nuclear war, or solar flare. If our society suffered a widespread power failure that lasted for weeks or months, it would be no different for us than if we were suddenly sent back to the 1800’s. It would be a strange and dangerous world, and for the average person, it would catch them off guard in the following ways:

1. All commerce will cease. The ATMs won’t work, the banks won’t open, and the cash registers won’t…well, register. For a while cash will be king, but if the crisis goes on for more than a few weeks, then people will view it as worthless. We’d be back to a barter economy in short order.

 

2. Communications will shut down. If you think you can rely on your cell phone to work in a disaster, think again. In a crisis, when everyone instinctively reaches for their phone, that limit is quickly surpassed and the radios on the tower get sluggish, thus causing the fast-busy signal. Mobile analysts estimates that a cell site can handle 150 to 200 calls per second per sector. When a large group are making calls at the same time, the network can’t handle the amount of calls. More importantly, communications with police, firefighters, and ambulance services will cease. Many of the workers in these positions will try to soldier on, and keep doing the best job that they can for as long as they can. However, without ordinary citizens calling them to report crimes and emergencies, they’ll be helplessly watching their communities burn down around them. It won’t be long before they give up, ditch their posts, and return to their families.

 

3. Without electricity, all forms of fuel that our society relies on will stop flowing. All of our vehicles will be dead in the water, and more importantly, the trucks will stop delivering food. The grocery stores will be stripped bare in hours, and will not be replenished for a long time. Even if you live in an area that is rich in agricultural resources, there may be no food to be had, since those farms rely on fertilizers and farming equipment that must be delivered by trucks.

 

4. And of course many of those farms will lack water, as will your plumbing. For a couple of days after the power goes out, you’ll still have running water since water towers rely on gravity to feed the water to your home. However, electricity is required to clean that water and pump it into the tower. Once it’s out, that means that you won’t be able to flush your toilet. So not only dehydration be a major threat, but without the ability to remove human waste or wash your hands, every community will face daunting sanitation problems.

 

5. When the grocery stores are stripped bare, the pharmacies won’t be far behind. Millions of people who rely on life saving medications could die in the weeks and months that follow. But perhaps more shocking is what would happen to the people who aren’t using drugs that are immediately life saving. 13% of Americans are using opioid drugs, which are highly addictive and cause horrendous withdrawal symptoms. Another 13% of Americans are on antidepressants, and likewise, the withdrawal symptoms are pretty problematic. In other words, within a few weeks after the grid collapses, about 25% of your neighbors are going to be in an awful mental state that is not conducive for survival.

 

6. And finally, one of the most shocking things that people will have to deal with, is the lack of GPS. The GPS satellites will probably keep running, but eventually the devices that read those signals will give up the ghost. These days people are pretty reliant on GPS for directions, and there aren’t as many paper maps lying around. The average person is going to be utterly lost if the grid goes down.

In summary, law and order will break down at every level, and death will be around every corner. It’s one thing to grow up and live in an era that lacks electricity, but to be sent back to such a time on a moments notice would be one of the most challenging things that a person accustomed to modern amenities would ever face.

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With Janet Yellen seemingly set on its course of hiking rates – no matter what given the hawkish screamings of the last 36 hours – we thought a reminder of what The Fed really is and what The Fed really does was worthwhile…

As SchoolHouseShock.com writes, money – whether its a tangible piece of paper or a number on a screen – is intrinsically worthless, yet it fuels the modern world. 

In America the ultimate control of money rests with the bankers of the Federal Reserve System. Because of this it is detrimental that we as citizens understand how this shadowy – private – organization works and how it’s ultimate goal is to forever enslave us in a descending pit of debt that we will never crawl out of.

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Via Federico Pieraccini of The Strategic Culture Foundation,

The best-case scenario has come about, which is to say the end of a world facing the specter of a mushroom cloud. With Hillary Clinton's defeat, we avoided a nuclear denouement stemming from a direct clash with Russia in Syria and an escalation of the conflict in Ukraine. Unfortunately the good news ends here.

 

The chaos that originated in the United States following the election of Donald Trump does not augur well. The economic crisis has persisted for ten years, with no solutions in sight. Ignored and underestimated by the elite, it has become the engine of dissatisfaction with politicians, generating a wave of protest votes in the United States and Europe. The positive outcome, a break with the past, has degenerated into a period of apparent chaos and disorder, caused mainly by internal clashes between the leaders of the ruling classes.

No one can doubt that Trump was not the preferred candidate of the intelligence agencies (CIA and NSA especially), the media, and the Washington political consensus. This really needs no proof. But to say, on the other hand, that Trump is the man of some generals, many bankers and corporations, is to engage in an oversimplification that fuels further confusion surrounding the new administration.

The sabotage attempts against the new administration are quite apparent, directed mainly by the fringes of both the Democratic and Republican parties that are politically opposed to Trump, with help from the intelligence agencies and the media. This triumvirate of the intelligence agencies, the media, and the political establishment has already inflicted serious damage: the sabotage in Yemen; Flynn's early exit from the role of the National Security Advisor; the antagonistic relationship between the press and the administration; and an endless series of controversies over the role of NATO and trade treaties (such as TPP). This triad, directed by leaders of the Democratic and Republican parties, seems to be working at full speed to reach an unthinkable outcome after only one month, namely the impeachment of Trump and the appointment of President Pence to provide continuity for the policies of Bush and Obama in line with the American project for global hegemony.

Donald Trump, while not a fool, is attempting to repair the sabotage with errors and decisions that often worsen the situation. The decision to fire Flynn seems wrong and excessive, distancing him from his desire for detente in international relations, one of the Trump’s most important promises.

To try and accurately hypothesize about the internal decisions and mechanisms made in the Trump administration would require excessive confidence in the authenticity of the information available. Certainly Bannon and Flynn appeared to be the core of Washington's anti-establishment element and the major advocates of a rapprochement with Moscow. Following this line of speculation, Pence, McMaster (appointed to succeed Flynn), Mattis and Priebus seem to represent the neoconservative faction, the heart of the bipartisan establishment of Washington. The fact that they were appointed directly by Trump leaves us with two conclusions: an excessive confidence in Trump's own ability to tame the beast, or an imposition from above which presupposes a lack of Trump’s control over his administration and over big decisions.

Figures like Rex Tillerson and Mike Pompeo arouse further confusion. While apparently confirming the policy of America First, and not necessarily giving a nod to the neoconservatives, they are certainly more digestible than anti-establishment figures like Bannon and Flynn.

The essential problem, especially for those who write analysis, is to find a rational and logical thread running through presidential decisions to be able to understand and anticipate the future direction of the new administration. To date, over just one month, we have witnessed some events that indicate a draining of the swamp, and others that indicated a full continuation of the Obama and Bush era.

Any hypothesis needs objective data and assessments confirmed by events. In my previous articles I have emphasized the clear distinction that must be made between words, actions (or lack thereof) with respect to the new administration. In Syria and Ukraine, the factions traditionally supported by the neocons (who are openly opposed to Trump) are experiencing a hard time. Poroshenko is becoming increasingly nervous and provocative (Putin, rightfully trusting no-one in Washington, has started the process of the Russian Federation recognizing the passports of the Donbass), attempting to involve Russia in the Ukrainian conflict. In Syria the situation improves every day thanks to the liberation of Aleppo and squabbling between Assad's opponents, which has resulted in a series of clashes between different takfiri factions concentrated in Idlib.

In both of these scenarios, European and American politicians, the intelligence agencies (guided by the CIA), and the media have joined in efforts to attack the new administration for not being friendly enough towards Kiev and also possibly opposing the arming and training moderate rebels in Syria. Pence’s recent words in Monaco have served to reassure European allies on the future role of NATO and the United States in the world. Yet some changes already seem to be taking place in Syria, where it appears that the CIA has had to give in and end the terrorists' funding program. One of the deep state’s emissaries and links with Islamic terrorism, John McCain, made a trip to Syria and Turkey to mediate and renew ties with the most extremist Wahhabis present in Syria. McCain’s objective is to sabotage Trump’s attempts to end support for moderate rebels in Syria (AKA Al Qaeda). McCain’s efforts also aim for arapprochement with Erdogan, to push him back towards the deep state’s cause and again sabotage the diplomatic efforts between Turkey and Iran and with Russia in Syria. The same effort was made in Ukraine by McCain and Graham a couple of months ago, inciting the army and political elites in Ukraine to ramp up their operation in Donbass. These are two clear indications of the intention to create problems for the new administration.

The bottom line is, there is chaos surrounding the new administration.

Trump lives on a dangerous misunderstanding: Is the President in control of events, or is he at the mercy of decisions made at higher levels and against his express will? Observing Syria and Ukraine, it would appear that the intended rapprochement with Moscow is still on course. The toning down of harsh words against Iran, coinciding with the ouster of Flynn, further offers promise. Detente and the resumption of dialogue with Beijing seem to suggest that an escalation in the South China Sea and East China Sea will be avoided. The same is the case regarding the abolition of the TTP.

Yet the overall impression that we seem to get from the first thirty days is of an administration in chaos. Flynn's ouster is a blow to the rapprochement with Moscow. Having replaced Flynn with McMaster, a disciple of Petraeus who is a strong supporter of the 4 + 1 approach (Russia, Iran, China, North Korea + ISIS) as the main focus of foreign policy, seems to minimize the hope of an administration free from warmongering. The 4 + 1 approach is at the heart of the attempt at global hegemony so dear to the promoters of American exceptionalism. The possible entry of Bolton with an undefined role, the appointment of Pence as vice president, and the roles played by Priebus and Mattis suggest a return of the neoconservatives to the driving seat. But is it really so?

The impressions we can glean come from the previous experiences of Trump appointees, media publications, drafts from the CIA, and possible leaks from those betraying the administration. The perception that we can obtain as outsiders cannot be precise, possibly being the result of constant manipulation from the news media. What credibility left have newspapers, politicians and anonymous intelligence sources that over the past two decades have cynically moulded the public’s perception of major wars and conflicts around the globe?

The question is how to be free from such conditioning in order to develop an accurate idea about Trump. Is Trump at war with the deep state? Is Trump a parallel product of the deep state? Is he an acceptable alternative for some of the deep-state factions?

Whatever the answer, we are facing an unprecedented clash between different mixes of establishment power. Certainly there are factions aligned with the thinking of the neoconservatives; factions linked to the new Secretary of State, the powerful former CEO of Exxon Mobil; factions with nationalist intentions pushing for an isolationist policy that seeks to abide by the principle of America First. If there is any certainty, it is precisely that we do not have any logical thread to divine Donald Trump's intentions. There are too many uncertainties with respect to the intentions expressed by Trump, with the influence of the warmongers in his administration, and with the ability of his loyal collaborators (Bannon above all) to stem internal erosion.

Basically there is a major lack of information. This results in excessive consideration and importance being placed on the words expressed by Trump, which are often at odds with each other and often in conflict with other ideas within the administration. At the same time we should especially observe actions (or non-actions) of the new administration, and following this logic we can line up some important events. Trump has already had two telephone conversations with Putin, one of which was particularly positive, according to White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer. There have been exchanges between Beijing and Washington, including a letter especially popular with the Chinese leadership; and Iran seems to have momentarily disappeared from the radar following Flynn's ouster. On the other hand, the additional sanctions on Iran are there to remind how the Republican administration will guarantee a negative stance towards Tehran. In this sense it is not surprising that the red carpet was laid out for Netanyahu on his visit to Washington.

Surely the absence of Trump at the Monaco conference is another important signal. The current president intends to continue to give priority to domestic over international politics.

For now we have to settle for a few crumbs of insight. In Syria the situation is improving thanks to the inaction of Washington; and In Ukraine Poroshenko has not found in the new administration the type of support he had been expecting to receive from Hillary Clinton had she won the election (a disappointment shared by the Banderists in Kiev and the Takfiri Wahhabis in Syria). The good news seems to end here, with a series of potentially explosive situations already in place. Western troops remain on Russia’s border (the withdrawal of such a deployment would have demonstrated to Moscow Trump’s genuine intention to dialogue, a concession, though that would have infuriated many members of the EU). The Saudis continue to receive important support for their campaign in Yemen. Constant threats against the Democratic People's Republic of Korea continue unabated. And Trump’s executive orders on the home front have inspired a strong domestic reaction.

These are disappointing policies adopted in the first thirty days by an administration that seemed so inclined to break with the past. As the days go by, and more people get appointed to the administration and others driven out, the picture that appears to be emerging is that of a grueling battle with the deep state, leading to significant concessions by Trump. McMaster, Mattis, Priebus and Bolton seem to reflect this. Or maybe not. Bolton will find himself in a much lesser role than had been potentially considered (Secretary of State), and McMaster could spell the way to rebuild the military and strengthen deterrence without having to resort to brutal force, which would remain a final choice for the POTUS.

The risk for Trump lies in being overwhelmed by the war machine that has directed US policy for more than 70 years. He will then have given up without even having had the opportunity to try and change the course of events, if this had been his real intention in the first place. The problem with this new administration is trying to understand what is imposed and what is the result of strategic thinking. It should not be excluded that the Trump strategy to hold together the base with respect to election promises by creating a smoke screen in which he is portrayed as a fighter against the deep state who must occasionally yield in order to maintain peaceful coexistence. It is important not to discard this hypothesis for a deeper reason: Trump has to demonstrate to his voters that he is altogether outside of the establishment, and the best way to demonstrate this is to be the target of the MSM, thus attracting the sympathy of all who have long lost faith in the authenticity of the disseminators of news and information. It is a fine tactic, but not exceedingly so. Will he continue to act like a victim during the presidency, continuing to put up an effective shield against criticism about unfulfilled election promises, particularly in foreign policy? Will his voters continue to buy it? We will see.

If the administration's actions in the future head in a direction similar to that of Obama or Bush, Trump cannot act like a victim, since it was he who picked the closest people in his administration.

This again reminds us of the lack of information available to form an objective view, compounded by the fluctuations of the new administration.

There is a positive and important aspect to this situation. Tehran, Beijing and Moscow have increasing incentives to strengthen their alliance and not to question friendships; to forge ahead with projects that advance Eurasian integration. The election of Trump was accompanied by the grand strategic objective of splitting the alliance between China and Russia. But fortunately, Trump has offered little hope of a dialogue with Moscow in this respect. The most important thing is that an escalation of confrontation that may have led to a nuclear exchange has been averted.

Paradoxically, we could be facing an extremely advantageous situation for the Eurasian continent, allowing for further integration, with Washington’s continued adversarial stance (especially Iran and China in terms of trade sanctions and war) ensuring that valuable time will not be lost in excessive talks with the new American president. If Trump will maintain two key promises, namely to avoid a conflict and think about domestic interests (internal and economic security), then this will mean that the multipolar world in which we live will certainly have a better chance of stability and economic prosperity, which is the main desire of many countries, primarily China, Russia and Iran.

Trump’s contradictions, when observing the intentions expressed during the election campaign and comparing them with appointments made to key posts, have alarmed and continue to cause concern, leaving Iran, China and Russia with little hope for future cooperation with Washington. The possibility of a joint dialogue without excessive demands seems to be fading, advancing the hope of an acceleration of Eurasian integration, giving little regard for the indecipherable intentions of the new administration.

A world order with responsibility shared between the US, Russia and China seems out of the question. Yet on the horizon there seems to be no signs of an imminent conflict for the purposes of imposing the old unipolar world order on the multipolar world. The possibility that Trump will fall back on a neocon posture is difficult but not impossible to imagine (after all, this is the United States, a nation that has for seventy years tried to impose its own way of life on the rest of world), but why exclude the possibility that even Trump could be converted to the religion of exceptionalism? After all, how much confidence can we place in politics? You already know the answer to that one.

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