Tag: news

Ruble Rallying On Russian Verbal “Unlimited” Intervention

Following yesterday’s continued slide to record lows against the Central Bank’s currency basket, the Russian Ruble is rallying this morning as Russian Central Bank chief Elvira Nebiullina jawboned the threat of renewed intervention to “smooth out” markets:

  • *NABIULLINA SAYS FX MKT INTERVENTIONS NEEDED FOR FIN. STABILITY
  • *NABIULLINA SAYS BANK ROSSII ‘SMOOTHING OUT’ SHARP RUBLE SWINGS

One can only hope that – despite the bank runs, a plan not to raise rates, and a canceled bond auction – Russia has more success that Turkey is “fixing” the problem of QEasy money flows. The Ruble “basket” has reverted back to pre-Turkey levels.

 

The USD remains bid

 

But against the Central Bank’s currency basket, the losses from Turkey have been reverted…

 

Canceled Bond auction…

The Finance Ministry shelved this week’s sale after “an analysis of current market conditions,” it said in a statement on its website.

 

The ministry’s “actions are understandable — we don’t need to borrow at any cost,”

And today’s jawboning:

Speaking to reporters outside Moscow, Russian central bank Chairman Elvira Nabiullina reiterates FX interventions won’t be fully abandoned.

Policy stance was previously declared and central bank is adhering to it: Nabiullina

Nabiullina: “We are planning to stick to the timetable that was announced to increase exchange rate flexibility in 2014”

Nabiullina: “We are smoothing out sharp fluctuations because we think that sharp fluctuations are harmful for everyone”


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/MzwWgN Tyler Durden

Ruble Rallying On Russian Verbal "Unlimited" Intervention

Following yesterday’s continued slide to record lows against the Central Bank’s currency basket, the Russian Ruble is rallying this morning as Russian Central Bank chief Elvira Nebiullina jawboned the threat of renewed intervention to “smooth out” markets:

  • *NABIULLINA SAYS FX MKT INTERVENTIONS NEEDED FOR FIN. STABILITY
  • *NABIULLINA SAYS BANK ROSSII ‘SMOOTHING OUT’ SHARP RUBLE SWINGS

One can only hope that – despite the bank runs, a plan not to raise rates, and a canceled bond auction – Russia has more success that Turkey is “fixing” the problem of QEasy money flows. The Ruble “basket” has reverted back to pre-Turkey levels.

 

The USD remains bid

 

But against the Central Bank’s currency basket, the losses from Turkey have been reverted…

 

Canceled Bond auction…

The Finance Ministry shelved this week’s sale after “an analysis of current market conditions,” it said in a statement on its website.

 

The ministry’s “actions are understandable — we don’t need to borrow at any cost,”

And today’s jawboning:

Speaking to reporters outside Moscow, Russian central bank Chairman Elvira Nabiullina reiterates FX interventions won’t be fully abandoned.

Policy stance was previously declared and central bank is adhering to it: Nabiullina

Nabiullina: “We are planning to stick to the timetable that was announced to increase exchange rate flexibility in 2014”

Nabiullina: “We are smoothing out sharp fluctuations because we think that sharp fluctuations are harmful for everyone”


    



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Goldman Lowers Q1 GDP Forecast To 2.7% Due To Inventory Impact

Earlier today we summarized the Q4 GDP print and said it would be virtually impossible for the economy to carry over a comparable annualized growth rate into 2014. Moments ago Goldman agreed, when it cut its Q1 GDP forecast by 30 bps to 2.7%.

From Jan Hatzius:

BOTTOM LINE: Q4 GDP grew in line with expectations, although the composition was slightly softer than expected. We start our Q1 GDP tracking estimate three-tenths below our prior assumption at 2.7%.

 

MAIN POINTS:

 

Real GDP increased at a 3.2% rate in Q4 (vs. consensus 3.2%). Personal consumption expenditures rose a smaller-than-expected 3.3% (vs. consensus 3.7%), which was still the fastest rate since 2010. Business fixed investment rose 3.8%, held down by a 1.2% decline in structures investment following two quarters of strong gains. Equipment investment rose a solid 6.9%. Business inventories added four-tenths to headline growth. Residential investment declined 9.8%, reflecting in part the lagged impact of weaker housing starts in past quarters. Net exports were also a strong positive contributor, adding 1.3 percentage points to growth. Federal government spending fell 12.6%, pushing total government spending down 4.9%. The Commerce Department estimated that the federal government shutdown subtracted three-tenths from GDP growth. Although the composition of this morning’s report was slightly softer than expected, solid 2.9% growth in real final sales to private domestic purchasers suggests positive underlying momentum heading into 2014.

 

We start our Q1 GDP tracking estimate three-tenths below our prior assumption at 2.7%, due to the larger-than-expected inventory contribution in Q4.


    



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No Charges for Texas Officer Who Shot Innocent Man at Own Home

Jerry Waller, on the rightLast May, a 72-year-old man in the Fort
Worth, Texas, area was
shot to death by police investigating a burglar alarm across
the street from his home. They were on his property, unaware they
were at the wrong address, there was some sort of confrontation,
and the man, Jerry Waller, was armed, possibly thinking there were
intruders. Police shot him seven times.

Yesterday, a grand jury
declined to charge the officer responsible for the innocent
man’s death. Courtesy of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram:

The decision not to indict R.A. “Alex” Hoeppner in the death of
Jerry Waller came a week after prosecutors began presenting the
case.

Waller died May 28 after being shot multiple times by Hoeppner
as the officer and partner Ben Hanlon searched for a possible
suspect after being dispatched to a burglary alarm call across the
street.

Hanlon, who did not fire his gun, was dismissed from the
department in October in an unrelated matter.

Police Chief Jeff Halstead said the grand jury made the right
decision.

“I think it was proven through the autopsy and evidence that a
gun was pointed directly at officer Hoeppner and he was forced to
make his decision …” Halstead said, explaining that the trajectory
of Waller’s wounds shows that the homeowner had his arm
outstretched, as if pointing a gun.

That the police were trespassing is apparently irrelevant. They
claim they identified themselves to Waller before opening fire. The
family, of course, has doubts about the police’s story. Even the
chief of police couldn’t explain why Waller would open fire on the
officers if they had identified themselves. (Oh, and the unrelated
matter that Officer Hanlon was dismissed for was for allegedly
providing false information about an arrest at a traffic stop.)

Here’s an invitation to visualize the opposite happening. What
if Waller had killed Hoeppner, thinking the officer was an
intruder, instead of the other way around? Would the grand jury
have let Waller go?

(Hat tip to CharlesWT)

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And Now, Even Zimbabwe Opines On The Emerging Market Crisis

Courtesy of an epic liftathon in the USDJPY, concerns about the containment of the EM crisis seem to have abated for the time being, even though not only nothing has changed (just ask Argentina whose USD reserves are down to $28.5 billion from $30 billion two weeks ago), but the Fed just confirmed even less – $10 billion per month to be exact – hot money will be entering the frontier economies. However, behind the scenes things are rapidly changing fast. So fast, in fact, that even Zimbabwe, that paragon of currency stability, has opined on the EM drubbing. As AFP reports, Zimbabwe retailers, concerned about the rapid devaluation of the currency of their southern neighbor, South Africa’s Rand, have now stopped accepting it entirely.

One would think Zimbabwe knows about failing currencies. But for now, all eyes on the USDJPY which is the only risk-setter that matters.


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/Mlb8oh Tyler Durden

Stocks Rip; Bonds & Bullion Dip On "Bad News Is Great News" USDJPY Lift

"Not beating expectations" is the new "killing it" if today's markets are any judge. First, Facebook is up 19% ($150bn market cap). Gold and silver are being monkey-hammered in their new normal "I don't always sell gold, but when I do, I do it all at once in massive size) manner. Bond yields are pressing 3-4bps higher. The USD is surging (as JPY and EUR weakness trumps AUD strength) and that should provide the hint as to what is levitating stocks… JPY carry correlation remains extreme as the USDJPY bounce off 102 holds for now (and NKY is catching up).

 

Spot The Difference…

 

The S&P futures have levitated back to Tuesday's closing VWAP…

 

Gold and silver are slammed as Oil surges…

 

Nope no over-reaction here…

 

Nikkei is catching up to USDJPY…

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

Bonus Chart: Thursday Humor…

 


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/Mlb8Vv Tyler Durden

Stocks Rip; Bonds & Bullion Dip On “Bad News Is Great News” USDJPY Lift

"Not beating expectations" is the new "killing it" if today's markets are any judge. First, Facebook is up 19% ($150bn market cap). Gold and silver are being monkey-hammered in their new normal "I don't always sell gold, but when I do, I do it all at once in massive size) manner. Bond yields are pressing 3-4bps higher. The USD is surging (as JPY and EUR weakness trumps AUD strength) and that should provide the hint as to what is levitating stocks… JPY carry correlation remains extreme as the USDJPY bounce off 102 holds for now (and NKY is catching up).

 

Spot The Difference…

 

The S&P futures have levitated back to Tuesday's closing VWAP…

 

Gold and silver are slammed as Oil surges…

 

Nope no over-reaction here…

 

Nikkei is catching up to USDJPY…

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

Bonus Chart: Thursday Humor…

 


    



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Ukraine Stocks Plunge To 18-Month Lows As Ex-President Warns Of Imminent “Civil War”

Following discussions with Merkel, demands to de-escalate tensions from Barrose, and threats of sanctions from President Obama. Ukraine's President Yanukovych has gone on sick leave from "immense pshcological pressure." Despite his exclamations that he'll do everything for the sake of peace, he blames the opposition for "escalating the situation," which fits, rather ominously with warnings from former presdent Leonid Kravchuk. As The BBC reports, Ukraine's first post-independence president warned the country is on the "brink of civil war". While the Hyrvnia is not collapsing as much as it was (always the silver lining), money is running away from Ukraine stocks (at 18-month lows), bond term structure is inverted, and CDS are spiking back to recent highs over 1000bps.

The headlines suggest things are getting worse:

  • Ukraine’s Yanukovych Out Sick After Protesters Reject Amnesty
  • *UKRAINE'S YANUKOVYCH SAYS OPPOSITION ESCALATING SITUATION
  • *UKRAINE PRESIDENT SAYS GOVT HAS FULFILLED OBLIGATIONS: IFX
  • *UKRAINE PARLIAMENT FULFILLED CONDITIONS ON AMNESTY: YANUKOVYCH
  • *AUTHORITIES HAVE MET ALL OBLIGATIONS TO OPPOSITION: YANUKOVYCH

Global politicians are responding…

  • *OBAMA PREPARES SANCTIONS AGAINST UKRAINE: REUTERS
  • *EU'S BARROSO SAYS NEED TO DE-ESCALATE TENSION IN UKRAINE
  • *TUSK SAYS NO UKRAINE GOVT CAN COUNT ON EU DEAL IF USES VIOLENCE

 

Ukraine Stocks are tumbling…

And "civil war" is coming

Via The BBC,

Ukraine's first post-independence president has warned the country is on the "brink of civil war".

 

Leonid Kravchuk, president from 1991 to 1994, urged parliament to "act with the greatest responsibility" as it debates an amnesty for detained protesters.

 

…

 

Mr Kravchuk told MPs: "All the world acknowledges and Ukraine acknowledges that the state is on the brink of civil war.

 

"It is a revolution. It is a dramatic situation in which we must act with the greatest responsibility," he said in an emotional address that earned him a standing ovation.

 

…

Images  suggest this is far from over…


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1jNzTb2 Tyler Durden

Ukraine Stocks Plunge To 18-Month Lows As Ex-President Warns Of Imminent "Civil War"

Following discussions with Merkel, demands to de-escalate tensions from Barrose, and threats of sanctions from President Obama. Ukraine's President Yanukovych has gone on sick leave from "immense pshcological pressure." Despite his exclamations that he'll do everything for the sake of peace, he blames the opposition for "escalating the situation," which fits, rather ominously with warnings from former presdent Leonid Kravchuk. As The BBC reports, Ukraine's first post-independence president warned the country is on the "brink of civil war". While the Hyrvnia is not collapsing as much as it was (always the silver lining), money is running away from Ukraine stocks (at 18-month lows), bond term structure is inverted, and CDS are spiking back to recent highs over 1000bps.

The headlines suggest things are getting worse:

  • Ukraine’s Yanukovych Out Sick After Protesters Reject Amnesty
  • *UKRAINE'S YANUKOVYCH SAYS OPPOSITION ESCALATING SITUATION
  • *UKRAINE PRESIDENT SAYS GOVT HAS FULFILLED OBLIGATIONS: IFX
  • *UKRAINE PARLIAMENT FULFILLED CONDITIONS ON AMNESTY: YANUKOVYCH
  • *AUTHORITIES HAVE MET ALL OBLIGATIONS TO OPPOSITION: YANUKOVYCH

Global politicians are responding…

  • *OBAMA PREPARES SANCTIONS AGAINST UKRAINE: REUTERS
  • *EU'S BARROSO SAYS NEED TO DE-ESCALATE TENSION IN UKRAINE
  • *TUSK SAYS NO UKRAINE GOVT CAN COUNT ON EU DEAL IF USES VIOLENCE

 

Ukraine Stocks are tumbling…

And "civil war" is coming

Via The BBC,

Ukraine's first post-independence president has warned the country is on the "brink of civil war".

 

Leonid Kravchuk, president from 1991 to 1994, urged parliament to "act with the greatest responsibility" as it debates an amnesty for detained protesters.

 

…

 

Mr Kravchuk told MPs: "All the world acknowledges and Ukraine acknowledges that the state is on the brink of civil war.

 

"It is a revolution. It is a dramatic situation in which we must act with the greatest responsibility," he said in an emotional address that earned him a standing ovation.

 

…

Images  suggest this is far from over…


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1jNzTb2 Tyler Durden

Preliminary Q4 GDP Declines To 3.2% As Expected; Final 2013 GDP 1.9%, Down From 2.8% In 2012

After the blistering final Q3 GDP print of 4.1% (to be revised far lower eventually), the preliminary Q4 GDP number had only one way to go, down – and sure enough it dropped to the expected 3.2% (well below Joe LaVorgna’s 4.0% forecast), capping 2013 GDPat 1.9%, down solidly from the 2.8% growth recorded in 2012. “Assume a recovery…”

The good news: the composition of the preliminary Q4 GDP number was better, with inventories only accounting for 0.42% of the final 3.22% print, compared to 1.67% previously. In fact, for the first time since Q1, Personal Consumption was responsible for more than half of GDP growth, generating 2.26% of the annualized growth compared to 1.36% in Q3.Still on a quarterly basis, Personal Consumption of 3.3% missed expectations of a 3.7% growth, up from 2.0% – did the consumption surge already roll over before the quarter ended? Why yes, if one looks at abysmal holiday retail sales numbers.

The key contributors to consumption growth were Services, and specifically a jump in spending on housing and utilities (from -0.31% to 0.14%), as well as Food Services and Accommodations which rose from 0.02% to 0.43% annualized. Which was to be expected as inventory is being absorbed by consumption. The question is how much longer can consumers keep this behavior up with collapsing purchasing power.

The bad news, and here all “CapEx is growing” fans please look away, Fixed Investment tumbled from 0.89% to just 0.14% annualized, as investment across the board dipped but mostly in non-residential structures (down -0.03% from 0.35%) and a collapse in residential fixed investment from 0.31% to -0.32%.

Finally, net trade contributed a whopping 1.33% in GDP, the most since the 2.39% increase in Q2 2009. How much longer can the US continue boosting its GDP on the back of the shale boom, and declining imports, remains to be seen. However, just like the inventory build up now has to be soaked up, so the net trade boost is about to become a drag on growth, precisely in time for the consumer to also pull back. In other words, enjoy the Q4 GDP surge – it won’t last into 2014.

Source: BEA


    



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