Former Reason man Radley Balko from his new perch at
the Washington Post points out the
dangers of prescription drug user databases, especially when
government agencies get access to them without court order.
After discussing a recent legal challenge to the practice in
Oregon, and how Pennsylvania is trying to create more
records of its citizens prescription drug use for government snoops
to enjoy:
Imagine a law enforcement officer looking for ammunition in a
divorce or custody dispute. Or perhaps a politician who takes the
wrong position on police pensions or police accountability might
see his painkiller scripts leaked to the press. (That sort of
retaliation wouldn’t
be unheard of.) Moraff points out that Virginia’s prescription
database has already been accessed by hackers, who then threatened
to release the records of 8 million people.
But [there’s a] less obvious problem—the chilling effect this
will have on doctors. For example, one of the red flags federal
investigators look for when looking for doctors to accuse of “drug
dealing” is the overall number of prescriptions a given doctor
writes for various controlled drugs. That means that as he’s
deciding your course of treatment, or whether to prescribe opioids
to improve your mother’s quality of life as she’s dying from
terminal cancer, he’ll be thinking about how many scripts for those
drugs he may have already written for other patients. It’s an
intrusion on the doctor-patient relationship, and could influence a
doctor’s decisions about a patient’s treatment with factors that
have nothing to do what’s best for that particular patient.
VIX’s 25% spike from yesterday’s lows to over 17% is the largest jump in 7 months. Stocks are continuing to collapse broadly (even as Bonds are stable) with the Dow almost unchanged from Taper now. Trannies are back to their 50DMA for the first time in over 3 months and the Dow and S&P are well through the 50DMA. The USD is stable but JPY is leading the charge lower in stocks. Credit markets are at 7 week wides. Not “off the lows”
Back in the years just before the previous housing bubble burst (not to be confused with the current, even more acute one), one person did the math on subprime, realized that the housing – and credit bubble – collapse was imminent, and warned anyone who cared to listen – almost nobody did. That man was Kyle Bass, and because he had the guts to put the money where his mouth was, he made a lot of money. Fast forward to 2014 when subprime is all the rage again and the subprime bubble is bigger than ever: it may comes as a surprise to some that in 2013, subprime debt was one of the best performing fixed income instruments, returning a whopping 17% in a year when most other debt instruments generated negative returns. And this time, while Kyle Bass is busy – collecting nickels (each costing a dime) perhaps – it is someone else who has stepped into Bass’ Cassandra shoes: that someone is Jeff Gundlach.
“These properties are rotting away,” Gundlach, 54, said last week on a conference call with investors, about homes stuck in foreclosure pipelines, adding that it could take six years to resolve defaulted loans made to the least creditworthy borrowers before the real-estate crash. Those residences are a sign of an uneven U.S. recovery, which has left blighted neighborhoods in cities from Los Angeles to Detroit and about 8 million borrowers still owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth.
But while warning on yet another subprime implosion is nothing new, and many have done it in the past, why this time may be different and far more timely, is because seriously delinquent borrowers are literally soaring, up from 7% in 2012 to 32% currently!
A measure of losses on mortgage debt rose last quarter for the first time since 2011, Fitch Ratings said in a report yesterday. The reversal was driven by an aging pool of loans in the foreclosure process, particularly in states such as Florida and New Jersey which give added legal protections to homeowners against repossessions.
About 32 percent of seriously delinquent borrowers, those at least 90 days late, haven’t made a payment in more than four years, up 7 percent from the beginning of 2012, according to Fitch analyst Sean Nelson.
“These timelines could still increase for another year or so,” Nelson said, leading to even higher losses because of added legal and tax costs, and a greater potential for properties to deteriorate.
This means that the capacity of lenders to absorb losses is rapidly declining as inbound cashflows slow to a trickle. And not only that, but loss severities, or how much a lender will lose in case of default are also grinding higher:
Loss severities on subprime debt, tied to risky mortgages that inflated the housing bubble, increased to 75.9 percent from 74.1 in the last three months of the year. The severities — a measure of losses suffered on a liquidated loan — peaked at 77.1 percent in early 2012 from 12.8 percent at the end of 2006, during the property boom.
Gundlach isn’t the only one:
“In 2013, we were very bullish on subprime,” said Anup Agarwal, head of mortgage-backed and structured products at Pasadena, California-based Western Asset Management. “It was overall a big winner and you saw that reflected in prices.” Agarwal, whose firm managed $443 billion in fixed-income assets as of Sept. 30, has in the past six months turned more negative on subprime and started shifting money into Alt-A securities.
One William Street Capital Management LP, a hedge fund firm with $2.7 billion in assets, is expecting reduced losses as home prices continue to rise, according to a letter sent to investors this month. The investment firm said increased regulations have added to costs for firms that deal with troubled mortgages.
For subprime prices to make sense, recoveries must improve but won’t because of the backlog of loans, Gundlach said.
Gundlach’s take home message is simple:
“The housing market is softer than people think,” Gundlach said, pointing to a slowdown in mortgage refinancing, the time it’s taking to liquidate defaulted loans and shares of homebuilders that have dropped 14 percent since reaching a high in May. D.R. Horton Inc., the largest builder by revenue, fell 1.9 percent to $21.54 at 9:43 a.m. in New York trading, extending its drop since May to 22 percent.
The money manager has cautioned investors before about avoiding subprime. In 2012, he said investors can’t assume the “lines will head south” speaking about loss severities for loans and then last year, referred to the debt as being stubborn.
Alas, warnings in a centrally-planned system in which only what the head of the Fed does matters, are lost on everyone: such was the case with Bass, such will be the case with Gundlach for the simple reason that the ever fainter music is still playing, and those whose money comes from furiously shuffling worthless assets back and forth, must dance. Plus by now everyone knows that by the time people actually do listen, it is always too late.
Ukrainian protesters erected more street barricades and occupied another government ministry building on Friday after the failure of crisis talks with President Yanukovich, as opposition leader Klitschko feared "more deaths" pointing to a weekend of increasingly violent protests. Reuters reports that Yanukovich's party stated "the situation has grown sharper throughout the country," and called on people to disregard the calls of "radical troublemakers" to turn out for protest rallies. Klitschko punched back, "Yanukovich has declared war on his own people. He is trying to hold on to power at the price of blood and de-stabilization of the situation in the country. He has to be stopped." The international community is getting involved with Hollande calling for "dialogue" but it is Biden's threat of "consequences" that spurred a different protest at the US embassy – "The US is behind everything that is happening in Kiev’s downtown right now."
Hundreds of thousands took to the streets in the capital after Yanukovich backed away from signing a free trade deal with the European Union, which many people saw as the key to a European future, in favor of financial aid from Ukraine's old Soviet master Russia.
But the movement has since widened into broader protests against perceived misrule and corruption in the Yanukovich leadership.
Protesters have been enraged too by sweeping anti-protest legislation that was rammed through parliament last week by Yanukovich loyalists in the assembly.
and is spreading…
Yanukovich's Party of the Regions confirmed reports that two months of anti-government protests were spreading to other parts of the country, particularly the west, where "extremists" had seized regional administration buildings.
And will get worse…
Opposition leader Vitaly Klitschko, who with two other opposition leaders failed to wring any concessions from Yanukovich late last night, said the only way out of the impasse lay with international mediation.
"Any discussion of how to settle the crisis in Ukraine must take place with the involvement of the international mediators of the highest level," a statement from his Udar party quoted him as saying.
"Instead of shifting to solving the situation by common sense, Yanukovich has declared war on his own people. He is trying to hold on to power at the price of blood and de-stabilization of the situation in the country. He has to be stopped," the boxer-turned-politician said.
…
Masked protesters, some carrying riot police shields seized as trophies, stood guard as others piled up sandbags packed with frozen snow to form new ramparts across the road leading down into the square.
…
Opposition leader Vitaly Klitschko, after leaving a second round of talks with Yanukovich empty handed, late on Thursday voiced fears the impasse could now lead to further bloodshed.
But at the US embassy, a different crowd is revolting…
…a new faction of intelligent Ukrainian protesters has sprung up this week.
They see right through the covert western operation:
“The US is behind everything that is happening in Kiev’s downtown right now.”
From yesterday afternoon, this new group have begun to encircle the US Embassy in Kiev. Their demand to the US:
‘Stop meddling in our affairs, and stop sponsoring unrest mobs in our country’.
Following John McCain’srecent trip to Kiev practicing his new brand of international racketeering by threatening the Ukraine if they did not join the EU, it seems that the real Ukrainians have finally figured out that the pro-EU mobs have been staged by a conclave of western NGO’s and ‘democracy foundations’ – the very same nest of hornets who brought on the fabled ‘Arab Spring’ to the Middle East three years ago.
The main goal for Washington and the City of London is to separate Kiev from Moscow, and thus weaken Russia’s hand in Eurasia.
For EU central bankers, the prospect of raping and privatising the Urkraine economy- is also a big incentive.
It looks like the old tricks are no longer working. At last, the ‘colour revolution’ jig may finally be up…
A huge crowd of demonstrators has surrounded the US embassy in the Ukrainian capital of Kiev, protesting against Washington’s meddling in the country’s internal affairs.
The event was organized by Kievans for Clean City, a new pro-government activist group which has spoken out against the rioters and violence in downtown Kiev.
Several thousand demonstrators are taking part, urging the US to “stop sponsoring” mass unrests, local media reported.
“The US is behind everything that is happening in Kiev’s downtown right now. The financing is coming from over there. This has to be stopped. That is what we came out here to say to the whole world: ‘US – stop! US – there needs to be peace in Ukraine,’” said Ivan Protsenko, one of the movement’s leaders.
Ukrainian protesters erected more street barricades and occupied another government ministry building on Friday after the failure of crisis talks with President Yanukovich, as opposition leader Klitschko feared "more deaths" pointing to a weekend of increasingly violent protests. Reuters reports that Yanukovich's party stated "the situation has grown sharper throughout the country," and called on people to disregard the calls of "radical troublemakers" to turn out for protest rallies. Klitschko punched back, "Yanukovich has declared war on his own people. He is trying to hold on to power at the price of blood and de-stabilization of the situation in the country. He has to be stopped." The international community is getting involved with Hollande calling for "dialogue" but it is Biden's threat of "consequences" that spurred a different protest at the US embassy – "The US is behind everything that is happening in Kiev’s downtown right now."
Hundreds of thousands took to the streets in the capital after Yanukovich backed away from signing a free trade deal with the European Union, which many people saw as the key to a European future, in favor of financial aid from Ukraine's old Soviet master Russia.
But the movement has since widened into broader protests against perceived misrule and corruption in the Yanukovich leadership.
Protesters have been enraged too by sweeping anti-protest legislation that was rammed through parliament last week by Yanukovich loyalists in the assembly.
and is spreading…
Yanukovich's Party of the Regions confirmed reports that two months of anti-government protests were spreading to other parts of the country, particularly the west, where "extremists" had seized regional administration buildings.
And will get worse…
Opposition leader Vitaly Klitschko, who with two other opposition leaders failed to wring any concessions from Yanukovich late last night, said the only way out of the impasse lay with international mediation.
"Any discussion of how to settle the crisis in Ukraine must take place with the involvement of the international mediators of the highest level," a statement from his Udar party quoted him as saying.
"Instead of shifting to solving the situation by common sense, Yanukovich has declared war on his own people. He is trying to hold on to power at the price of blood and de-stabilization of the situation in the country. He has to be stopped," the boxer-turned-politician said.
…
Masked protesters, some carrying riot police shields seized as trophies, stood guard as others piled up sandbags packed with frozen snow to form new ramparts across the road leading down into the square.
…
Opposition leader Vitaly Klitschko, after leaving a second round of talks with Yanukovich empty handed, late on Thursday voiced fears the impasse could now lead to further bloodshed.
But at the US embassy, a different crowd is revolting…
…a new faction of intelligent Ukrainian protesters has sprung up this week.
They see right through the covert western operation:
“The US is behind everything that is happening in Kiev’s downtown right now.”
From yesterday afternoon, this new group have begun to encircle the US Embassy in Kiev. Their demand to the US:
‘Stop meddling in our affairs, and stop sponsoring unrest mobs in our country’.
Following John McCain’srecent trip to Kiev practicing his new brand of international racketeering by threatening the Ukraine if they did not join the EU, it seems that the real Ukrainians have finally figured out that the pro-EU mobs have been staged by a conclave of western NGO’s and ‘democracy foundations’ – the very same nest of hornets who brought on the fabled ‘Arab Spring’ to the Middle East three years ago.
The main goal for Washington and the City of London is to separate Kiev from Moscow, and thus weaken Russia’s hand in Eurasia.
For EU central bankers, the prospect of raping and privatising the Urkraine economy- is also a big incentive.
It looks like the old tricks are no longer working. At last, the ‘colour revolution’ jig may finally be up…
A huge crowd of demonstrators has surrounded the US embassy in the Ukrainian capital of Kiev, protesting against Washington’s meddling in the country’s internal affairs.
The event was organized by Kievans for Clean City, a new pro-government activist group which has spoken out against the rioters and violence in downtown Kiev.
Several thousand demonstrators are taking part, urging the US to “stop sponsoring” mass unrests, local media reported.
“The US is behind everything that is happening in Kiev’s downtown right now. The financing is coming from over there. This has to be stopped. That is what we came out here to say to the whole world: ‘US – stop! US – there needs to be peace in Ukraine,’” said Ivan Protsenko, one of the movement’s leaders.
My sense these days is that nobody except me and maybe a few others work on fridays in America, especially on a cold and icy day like today. It is a slow day. So…let’s talk disintermediation.
dis·in·ter·me·di·a·tion
noun. reduction in the use of intermediaries between producers and consumers, for example by investing directly in the securities market rather than through a bank.
Here are four areas that I find particularly interesting when it comes to thinking about disintermediation:
Wealth/Capital (gold, bitchezzz!!!)
Relationship with a higher power (God, bitchezzz!!!)
Food (garden, bitchezzz!!!)
Security (guns, bitchezzz!!!)
Over the years, I have found many ways to practice disintermediation in each of these areas. I have written articles and comments and posted photos on Zerohedge about some of these efforts. Today, I invite you to discuss with me our successes, failures, and hopes in the comments section below. I am thinking this will be similar to an open thread, except I would like us to keep to the topic of practicing disintermediation as much as possible.
Here are a few examples to get us started:
A great way to safely store a little gold is by placing 1/10th ounce krugerrands in an L.L. Bean money belt, and hanging it in the closet with a bunch of other belts. Hiding in plain sight, and readily portable.
I found it helpful to write a Gratitude List of the things I am most thankful for, and placing it in a place where I see it every day, not just in the church on Sundays. In my experience, Veggie Tales is right…a thankful heart is a happy heart.
Most places in America still have a county agriculture extension office where one can get a list of the plants that grow well locally, when to plant them, when to harvest them, how to protect them from pests, and how to fertilize them, etc.
My sense these days is that nobody except me and maybe a few others work on fridays in America, especially on a cold and icy day like today. It is a slow day. So…let’s talk disintermediation.
dis·in·ter·me·di·a·tion
noun. reduction in the use of intermediaries between producers and consumers, for example by investing directly in the securities market rather than through a bank.
Here are four areas that I find particularly interesting when it comes to thinking about disintermediation:
Wealth/Capital (gold, bitchezzz!!!)
Relationship with a higher power (God, bitchezzz!!!)
Food (garden, bitchezzz!!!)
Security (guns, bitchezzz!!!)
Over the years, I have found many ways to practice disintermediation in each of these areas. I have written articles and comments and posted photos on Zerohedge about some of these efforts. Today, I invite you to discuss with me our successes, failures, and hopes in the comments section below. I am thinking this will be similar to an open thread, except I would like us to keep to the topic of practicing disintermediation as much as possible.
Here are a few examples to get us started:
A great way to safely store a little gold is by placing 1/10th ounce krugerrands in an L.L. Bean money belt, and hanging it in the closet with a bunch of other belts. Hiding in plain sight, and readily portable.
I found it helpful to write a Gratitude List of the things I am most thankful for, and placing it in a place where I see it every day, not just in the church on Sundays. In my experience, Veggie Tales is right…a thankful heart is a happy heart.
Most places in America still have a county agriculture extension office where one can get a list of the plants that grow well locally, when to plant them, when to harvest them, how to protect them from pests, and how to fertilize them, etc.
A poll from Gallup shows that a majority of Republicans think we’ve got too much inequality:
Two out of three Americans are dissatisfied with the way income and wealth are currently distributed in the U.S. This includes three-fourths of Democrats and 54% of Republicans.
In fact, there are at least 6 solid conservative reasons – based upon conservative values – for reducing runaway inequality:
(1) It has now finally become widely accepted by economists that inequality drags down the economy. Conservatives like prosperity and economic growth, not things which pull down the economy;
(5) One of the biggest causes of runaway inequality is that the big banks are manipulating every market, and committing massive crimes. Fraud disproportionally benefits the big banks, makes boom-bust cycles more severe, and otherwise harms the economy … all of which increase inequality and warp the market. These actions artificially redistribute wealth from honest, hard-working people to a handful of crooks. Conservatives hate redistribution … as well as crooks.
(6) Religious leaders have slammed the criminality of the heads of the big banks; and the Bible teaches – and top economists agree – that their crimes must be punished, or else things will get worse. A 2011 Gallup poll showed that 91% of U.S. conservatives believe that the Bible is either literally true or is the inspired word of God. If the crimes of the bankers are punished, inequality will start to decline, because a more lawful, orderly and even playing field will be reestablished.
We’re not calling for redistributing wealth from the rich. But we do support clawing back ill-gotten gains from criminals under well-established fraud principles:
The government could use existing laws to force ill-gotten gains to be disgorged (see this and this) [and] fraudulent transfers to be voided …
We’re mainly talking about stopping further redistribution from Main Street to Wall Street. As Robert Shiller said in 2009:
And it’s not like we want to level income. I’m not saying spread the wealth around, which got Obama in trouble. But I think, I would hope that this would be a time for a national consideration about policies that would focus on restraining any possible furtherincreases in inequality.
While the world of speculative capital is focused intently on the Twitter and Facebook #Ref/0 fundamental valuations in the publicly-traded equity markets, as the WSJ illustrates, the real dot-com 2.0 bubble is occurring in the private markets. Today there are more than 30 companies in the US, Europe, and China that are valued at $1 billion or more by venture-captal firms and the club is becoming less exclusive as venture capitalists (in their ever growing speculative fervor) funnel large sums of capital into start-ups.
Click image for interactive and sortable WSJ infographic
While the world of speculative capital is focused intently on the Twitter and Facebook #Ref/0 fundamental valuations in the publicly-traded equity markets, as the WSJ illustrates, the real dot-com 2.0 bubble is occurring in the private markets. Today there are more than 30 companies in the US, Europe, and China that are valued at $1 billion or more by venture-captal firms and the club is becoming less exclusive as venture capitalists (in their ever growing speculative fervor) funnel large sums of capital into start-ups.
Click image for interactive and sortable WSJ infographic