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In the 30 seconds before this morning’s jobs report was released to the general public, Gold prices dropped and USDJPY jumped from its relative stasis going in. Obviously it is not clear if anyone knew anything but following the knee-jerk reactions, these were rightly positioned moves for where the market is now.
Charts: Bloomberg
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Ugly jobs report in which not even the spin brigade could find anything to cheer, after even the BLS said the atrocious December print was not due to the weather when it did not revise the December number? No worries: here is what the market is using as a goalseeked justification to send the futures off its post report plunge lows to a level higher than where it was before the report. See if you can spot it:
That’s right – after years of ignoring the impact of the labor force participation rate, suddenly the market trading algos are so concerned about LFP they took the “surge” from the 35 year lows of 62.8% to 63.0% as the all clear signal that they can ignore all the other data in the NFP report and buy.
Another way of seeing this, is the number of people not in the labor force, which declined from an all time record 91,808 to 91,455 – just below the second highest ever.
Of course, both these trends will revert to their historic deteriorating progression, but for now it is all about finding the narrative that allows the market to explain why someone just reactivated the USDJPY 102 tractor beam which is sending everything soaring.
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Ugly jobs report in which not even the spin brigade could find anything to cheer, after even the BLS said the atrocious December print was not due to the weather when it did not revise the December number? No worries: here is what the market is using as a goalseeked justification to send the futures off its post report plunge lows to a level higher than where it was before the report. See if you can spot it:
That’s right – after years of ignoring the impact of the labor force participation rate, suddenly the market trading algos are so concerned about LFP they took the “surge” from the 35 year lows of 62.8% to 63.0% as the all clear signal that they can ignore all the other data in the NFP report and buy.
Another way of seeing this, is the number of people not in the labor force, which declined from an all time record 91,808 to 91,455 – just below the second highest ever.
Of course, both these trends will revert to their historic deteriorating progression, but for now it is all about finding the narrative that allows the market to explain why someone just reactivated the USDJPY 102 tractor beam which is sending everything soaring.
via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1l5Bsz7 Tyler Durden
UPDATE: Stocks have bounced on USDJPY’s jump back to 102 (as we warned) but Treasuries are not playing along
Bonds are surging and gold is well bid as the jobs report had little to offer the hopeful. The anti-goldilocks number slammed bonds with the 10Y Yield to unchanged on the week (down around 8bps on the kneejerk), gold is testing $1270 as JPY strength provides ammunition for derisking in the equity markets. S&P futures spiked 11 points higher on the release as algos went wild, then fell over 20 points from that high and are bouncing back modestly now. Of course, we are still 45 minutes from the US open so expect USDJPY to be levered back to 102 and lift stocks to make retail believe everything is fine…
and Spot The Difference…
Charts: Bloomberg
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“LAUSD Superintendent Speaks at National School Choice
Rally,” is the latest offering from Reason TV. Watch
above or click on the link below for video, full text, supporting
links, downloadable versions, and more Reason TV clips.
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The
story of the real-life Monuments Men is a good one: how a group of
academic art experts was deployed toward the end of World War II to
save the treasures of European culture from relentless bombing and
thieving Nazis. This adventure would make a good read – and in fact
already has, in a 2009 book by Robert M. Edsel. It doesn’t make
much of a movie, though, says Kurt Loder.
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According to The Washington Post’s Robert Costa,
Speaker John Boehner might use the upcoming vote on increasing the
debt limit
to jack up veteran’s benefits.
At the top of the list: a proposal to link a one-year extension
of the debt ceiling to a restoration of recently cut military
benefits.
What are we talking about here? Well, by the terms of the most
recent budget deal – the one that busted the sequester cuts from a
couple of summers ago –
payments for military retirement benefits are supposed to
increase from around $51 billion this year to about $64.3 in 2023.
That’s a pretty hefty boost, of course, but not as big as was once
envisioned. At one point, the benefits were supposed to grow to
about $67.5 billion in 2023.
So now the Republicans – the party of small government, of
fiscal conservatism, of budgetary discipline – are mulling over
insisting on spending more money as a condition of raising the debt
ceiling, whose point is to call attention to deficit spending.
Any questions about why spending ratchets up but never seems to
swing back down? Read it and weep:
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According to The Washington Post’s Robert Costa,
Speaker John Boehner might use the upcoming vote on increasing the
debt limit
to jack up veteran’s benefits.
At the top of the list: a proposal to link a one-year extension
of the debt ceiling to a restoration of recently cut military
benefits.
What are we talking about here? Well, by the terms of the most
recent budget deal – the one that busted the sequester cuts from a
couple of summers ago –
payments for military retirement benefits are supposed to
increase from around $51 billion this year to about $64.3 in 2023.
That’s a pretty hefty boost, of course, but not as big as was once
envisioned. At one point, the benefits were supposed to grow to
about $67.5 billion in 2023.
So now the Republicans – the party of small government, of
fiscal conservatism, of budgetary discipline – are mulling over
insisting on spending more money as a condition of raising the debt
ceiling, whose point is to call attention to deficit spending.
Any questions about why spending ratchets up but never seems to
swing back down? Read it and weep:
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So much for the hope of either a surge in January jobs, or a massive upward revision in the December print. Moments ago the January jobs number came out and at 113K, it was a huge miss to the expected 180K, but more importantly, the December number which was expected to be revised much higher was virtually unchanged at 75K, compared to 74K originally. The unemployment rate, which has become largely irrelevant, dipped to 6.6% from 6.7%, just so Obama can get the brownie points for fixing the economy. However, judging by the market reaction this is hardly what the traders think.
More shortly.
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