Nick Gillespie vs. Patrick Kennedy, Talking Pot Legalization Tonight on CNN

Last night, I
discussed pot legalization on CNN’s Erin Burnett: OutFront with
guest host Don Lemon and CNN Legal Analyst Dan Callan. The starting
point of the discussion was President Obama’s recent
acknowledgement that pot “is no more dangerous than alcohol.”

Watch the segmant above or by
going here
.

I’ll be back on OutFront again tonight, around
7.10pm ET, continuing the discussion about ending the war on pot.
Don Lemon is back as guest host and we’ll be joined by former Rep.
Patrick Kennedy (D-R.I.), who cofounded the anti-marijuana group
Project
SAM
since leaving Congress.

Read my new Daily Beast article, “Ending
the War on Pot is Obama’s Last Chance for a Legacy
.”

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Video: Kelly Thomas Verdict: Father, Protesters Speak Out Against Not Guilty Verdicts

“Kelly
Thomas Verdict: Father, Protesters Speak Out Against Not Guilty
Verdicts”
is the latest offering from Reason TV. Watch above or
click on the link below for video, full text, supporting links,
downloadable versions, and more Reason TV clips.

View this article.

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Violent Dump Of 6,800 E-Minis Leads To Flash Sale

Starting at 11:06, S&P futures began to slide, picked up at 11:09, then at ~11:11:11, someone decided to dump 6,800 e-mini contracts in one second all at once in a nice fiduciary-duty-worthy trade as Europe begins to close and POMO ends: the kind of idiotic dumping through the bid stack that is not only allowed, but encouraged in gold and silver. That is around $625 million notional... Volume overall was huge in the last few minutes (as the chart below shows). VIX jerked 0.4 vols higs to 13.4%; JPY banged higher against the USD (but stocks still well below JPY expectations); and bonds quickly bid 1-2bps. This dump in the S&P drops it back to one-week lows.

This is dramatically hgher volume than normal for the European close…

 

As the waterfall selling progressed…

 

Ad as is clear, once the S&P 500 tagged UNCH for year-to-date, the selling began…

 

Paging Waddell & Reed…


    



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Meanwhile, Peak Symbolism In Front Of GM’s Detroit Headquarters

Let’s see: do massive sinkholes next to the headquarters of other massive sinkholes, located in a bankrupt city that may soon become a massive sinkhole, qualify for Federal bailouts?

From Jalopnik:

Oh, what a great thing to happen during the auto show when thousands of people are in downtown Detroit! Crews are working to patch up this giant sinkhole outside the Renaissance Center, which is home to General Motors, among other things.

 

The sinkhole, 30 feet deep, is believed to have been caused by a water main break and was discovered Saturday night after a cab driver drove into it. The cab driver was rescued and there are no other injuries.

 

The Michigan Department of Transportation tells WXYZ that because of underground utilities and the sheer size of the hole, there’s no telling how long it’ll take to fix it up.

And here is how the sinkhole moves from the GM building, to the street adjacent.

h/t @noalpha_allbeta


    



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Meanwhile, Peak Symbolism In Front Of GM's Detroit Headquarters

Let’s see: do massive sinkholes next to the headquarters of other massive sinkholes, located in a bankrupt city that may soon become a massive sinkhole, qualify for Federal bailouts?

From Jalopnik:

Oh, what a great thing to happen during the auto show when thousands of people are in downtown Detroit! Crews are working to patch up this giant sinkhole outside the Renaissance Center, which is home to General Motors, among other things.

 

The sinkhole, 30 feet deep, is believed to have been caused by a water main break and was discovered Saturday night after a cab driver drove into it. The cab driver was rescued and there are no other injuries.

 

The Michigan Department of Transportation tells WXYZ that because of underground utilities and the sheer size of the hole, there’s no telling how long it’ll take to fix it up.

And here is how the sinkhole moves from the GM building, to the street adjacent.

h/t @noalpha_allbeta


    



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Turkish Lira Crumbles To New Record Low As Erdogan Blames Fed Not Politics

“It is wrong to link [the Turkish Lira’s] fall to the corruption probe,” blasted Turkey’s Prime Minister Erdogan, explaining that the Lira’s fall “is linked to the Federal Reserve’s actions.” Since the taper was announced the Lira has collapsed over 12%, trading at 2.269 to the USD, a record low for the troubled nation’s currency. Of course, the timing is useful for the PM to explain his nation’s demise (as it is also proving a good excuse for Thailand – with massive outflows amid its riots; and Ukraine) but it seems the problems on the streets of Turkey are anything but going away. Today’s drop in the Lira (the 7th in a row) follows a somewhat surprising “disastrous for their credibility” decision by the Turkish Central Bank to leave rates unchanged (and still warn of inflation).

 

RBS on the Central bank’s decision:

Today’s actions are reflective of a central bank that knows it has to tighten policy but has its hands tied behind its back by politicians

 

Decision is “disastrous for central bank credibility. Negative for TRY

 

Erdogan says an “interest rates lobby” is seeking to attack Turkey’s economy and undermine his govt by forcing Turkey to raise interest rates

 

 

Chart: Bloomberg


    



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A Comedy Of IMF Forecasting Errors: Global Trade Tumbles More Than 50% From IMF’s 2012 Prediction

The comedy of errors that are IMF forecasts is well known: it was covered most recently in “Hilarious Charts Of The Day: IMF’s “Growth Forecasts” Over Time.” Moments ago we got the IMF’s first forecast update for 2014 which also included the Fund’s first 2015 forecasts for growth around the world. Not surprisingly, they were largely higher across the board except for China which has seen its 2014 projected GDP growth collapse from 8.5% a year ago to 7.5% now, and is expected to drop modestly to 7.3% in 2015. The charts showing the progression of said hilarious forecasts are shown in their entirety below, about which one thing can be said with certainty: whatever the GDP growth rate in the world is in 2014 and 2015 it will be anything but what the IMF predicts it to be.

But perhaps the most notable feature of today’s set of numbers is the IMF’s forecast of world trade. In a word: it is crashing. Consider that 2013 world trade was expected to grow by 5.6% in April 2012. Now: it is more than 50% lower at just 2.7%!

Yet what is truly hilarious and certainly head scratching, is that somehow the IMF now anticipates a pick up in global growth in 2014 from its previous forecast of 3.6% to 3.7%, even as global trade is revised lower once more to the lowest prediction for 2014:, and currently stands at just 4.5% compared to 4.9% in October 2013 and 5.5% a year ago (it goes without saying that the final global trade number for 2014 will be well lower than the IMF’s optimistic forecast).

How global GDP is expected to grow on the margin compared to previous forecasts even as trade contracts is anyone’s guess…

Behold the IMF’s revision to global growth forecasts: how does one spell error bars.

And here are the GDP growth forecasts for the rest of the world.

Global:

US:

Eurozone:

China:


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1kUftOW Tyler Durden

A Comedy Of IMF Forecasting Errors: Global Trade Tumbles More Than 50% From IMF's 2012 Prediction

The comedy of errors that are IMF forecasts is well known: it was covered most recently in “Hilarious Charts Of The Day: IMF’s “Growth Forecasts” Over Time.” Moments ago we got the IMF’s first forecast update for 2014 which also included the Fund’s first 2015 forecasts for growth around the world. Not surprisingly, they were largely higher across the board except for China which has seen its 2014 projected GDP growth collapse from 8.5% a year ago to 7.5% now, and is expected to drop modestly to 7.3% in 2015. The charts showing the progression of said hilarious forecasts are shown in their entirety below, about which one thing can be said with certainty: whatever the GDP growth rate in the world is in 2014 and 2015 it will be anything but what the IMF predicts it to be.

But perhaps the most notable feature of today’s set of numbers is the IMF’s forecast of world trade. In a word: it is crashing. Consider that 2013 world trade was expected to grow by 5.6% in April 2012. Now: it is more than 50% lower at just 2.7%!

Yet what is truly hilarious and certainly head scratching, is that somehow the IMF now anticipates a pick up in global growth in 2014 from its previous forecast of 3.6% to 3.7%, even as global trade is revised lower once more to the lowest prediction for 2014:, and currently stands at just 4.5% compared to 4.9% in October 2013 and 5.5% a year ago (it goes without saying that the final global trade number for 2014 will be well lower than the IMF’s optimistic forecast).

How global GDP is expected to grow on the margin compared to previous forecasts even as trade contracts is anyone’s guess…

Behold the IMF’s revision to global growth forecasts: how does one spell error bars.

And here are the GDP growth forecasts for the rest of the world.

Global:

US:

Eurozone:

China:


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1kUftOW Tyler Durden

Forced Unionization of Home Care Workers Before the Supreme Court

Honk if you love irony!The Supreme Court will be
hearing today a potentially very important freedom of association
case that hasn’t gotten a huge amount of publicity as yet, partly
because the court decided to
take it on
while we were in the midst of that scary government
shutdown (that wasn’t actually all that scary).

Harris v. Quinn plunges deep into the methods that
labor unions have been using to survive even as fewer and fewer
people seem interested in joining. Namely, government force. In
Illinois in 2003 and 2009, the state decided to treat all home-care
health workers who received Medicaid subsidies as though they were
government employees (though they are still privately employed) and
required them to accept Service Employees International Union as
their bargaining representative, whether they wanted to or not.
They are required to pay dues to the union for this service,
regardless of whether they want it or want to be in the union.

A pack of home-care workers are suing, arguing that being forced
to pay SEIU for representation violates their First Amendment
rights to free speech and association. The Cato Institute (who has
a primer on the case here)
has submitted a
brief
(pdf), along with the National Federation of Independent
Business and the Michigan-Based, free-market think-tank Mackinac
Center, in support of the plaintiffs.

Of note in Cato’s argument is that they tackle two of the major
arguments that the courts have accepted to allow for compulsory
membership in unions at places of government – to preserve “labor
peace” (conflicts resulting from multiple bargaining
representatives for different employees doing the same work) and to
avoid “free riders,” those who reap the rewards of collective
agreements without contributing to the costs of representation.

It should be fairly obvious that in the case of often
self-employed home health workers, these two arguments don’t apply.
The workers are hired by and work for individuals, and that’s not
changing. There are no threats to labor peace, nor would there be
any free riders. These home care workers all work in the same field
but they are in no sense in the same business together. In Cato’s
brief, they note that this forced unionization is only about
lobbying for more pay and benefits, using the union to give
“feedback” to the state about rates set by laws. It is offering
nothing else. Thus, Cato notes, the state has no actual compelling
interest in forcing home care workers into accepting union
representation:

Even if compelling “feedback” were a legitimate state interest,
the means selected by Illinois are far too blunt. “If the State has
open to it a less drastic way of satisfying its legitimate
interests, it may not choose a legislative scheme that broadly
stifles the exercise of fundamental personal liberties.” … In
particular, a state may override the freedom of expressive
association only where its interests “cannot be achieved through
means significantly less restrictive of associational freedoms.” …
If the State’s genuine purpose is to seek feedback from personal
assistants, it might survey or interview them or undertake any of a
number of far “less drastic” alternatives. It therefore may not
command them to assemble for the very purpose of expressive
association.

Too long, didn’t read version: The state can’t force home care
workers into unions and make them pay the union money entirely for
the purpose of the union lobbying the state to pay the workers more
money (some of which will then go back to the union). Instead they
could just survey home care workers.

A Washington Examiner piece
suggests
that this case could be a “sleeper” that could have
major consequences. The SEIU president in Illinois, in the subtle,
understated language union leaders are known for,
told AlJazeera
the plaintiffs want to “destroy things for
working people in the U.S.”

While it’s an important case, the complexities of the situation
are enough that a pro-free association decision could be written
narrowly enough so that it only applies to these privately hired
individual workers. It would be a big win for private self-employed
people being dragooned into a union for no rational reason but to
bolster union ranks, but it may not be the kind of test case some
are clearly hoping for.

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VIX Jumps To 1-Week High As Stocks Reverse Gains

It appears the early (pre-market) strength in US equities provided just the right amount of stop-hunting room for longs to cover and sellers to re-appear as the S&P 500 tested up towards record highs. US equities ran away from their JPY-related proxy briefly but have collapsed back down to it now as perhaps the tell was a push higher in VIX right from the open. VIX rose over 13% briefly – its highest in a week – as US equities (notably the Dow with no support from Visa or American Express to save its skin) tumbled.

 

VIX leading the charge lower…

 

as stocks catch down to JPY crosses…


    



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