Brickbat: Baby, It’s Cold Outside

Paula Andrew and
her family were walking along the promenade in Scarborough,
England, when a police van pulled up and two officers demanded her
name and address and began to question her about how warmly her
nine-month-old daughter was dressed. They said that someone had
called 999 to report the girl wasn’t wearing
a coat
. Andrew noted that the girl did have on a vest and
multiple layers of clothing and was quite warm.

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/1mzqmUS
via IFTTT

Brickbat: Baby, It's Cold Outside

Paula Andrew and
her family were walking along the promenade in Scarborough,
England, when a police van pulled up and two officers demanded her
name and address and began to question her about how warmly her
nine-month-old daughter was dressed. They said that someone had
called 999 to report the girl wasn’t wearing
a coat
. Andrew noted that the girl did have on a vest and
multiple layers of clothing and was quite warm.

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/1mzqmUS
via IFTTT

Security Expert Hacks Obamacare Website In 4 Minutes; Accesses 70,000 Records

Submitted by Michael Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

The hits just keep on coming for ObamaCare. It was less than two weeks ago that I highlighted the potential premium rate death spiral that ObamaCare faces due to the fact that only old and sick people are signing up for the program. Now it seems there are further security related concerns plaguing the site, as cyber-security expert David Kennedy recently claimed that “gaining access to 70,000 personal records of Obamacare enrollees via HealthCare.gov took about 4 minutes.”

It’s actually hard to be this incompetent if you tried. More from the Washington Times:

The man who appeared before Congress last week to explain the security pitfalls of HealthCare.gov took to Fox News on Sunday to explain just how easy it was to penetrate the website.

 

Hacking expert David Kennedy told Fox’s Chris Wallace that gaining access to 70,000 personal records of Obamacare enrollees via HealthCare.gov took about 4 minutes and required nothing more than a standard browser, the Daily Caller reported.

 

“And 70,000 was just one of the numbers that I was able to go up to and I stopped after that,” he said. “You know, I’m sure it’s hundreds of thousands, if not more, and it was done within about a 4 minute timeframe. So, it’s just wide open.”

 

“You can literally just open up your browser, go to this, and extract all this information without actually having to hack the website itself,” he said.

 

Mr. Kennedy testified before Congress Thursday that HealthCare.gov was “100 percent” insecure, Washington Free Beaconreported.

For some context on this very important issue, check out the video below:

 

Full article here.


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/LKSoPl Tyler Durden

BofAML: EUR Has Topped And Gold Will Surprise To The Upside

EURUSD has topped out, BofAML's Macneil Curry notes, as the break of 1.3548 confirmed a bearish turn in the medium-term trend, targeting 18-month trendline support at 1.3144. Furthermore, Curry warns, longer-term charts suggest this could be the start of something significantly more bearish – targeting the 200-month average at 1.2187. Despite this USD strength, Curry adds, gold remains curiously bid and could squeeze to $1,399.

Via BofAML's Macneil Curry,

€/$ breakdown

€/$ broke down sharply Friday, closing through key support at 1.3564/ 1.3548 (100d avg and Jan-09 low) and confirming a near term, potentially medium term, turn in trend. We have gone short on the break of 1.3548, targeting 18m trendline support at 1.3144. However, long term charts warn that this turn could be the start of something significantly more bearish, targeting the 200m avg at 1.2187. While more needs to be seen before we can make this call with confidence (a break of the 1.3295 Nov-07 low would increase our confidence), long term interest rate spreads support this scenario. Indeed, the US-GER 10yr spread continues on its well defined widening spread towards 132bps.

€/$ begins its downtrend

€/$ is breaking down. The impulsive decline from 1.3893 and subsequent break of the 100d avg says the trend has turned bearish. The initial target is the 200d avg at 1.3349, but this should be only temporary support before the 18m t/line at 1.3144. 

Weekly charts warns that this is the start of something more

A bigger picture view of €/$ warns that this most recent turn lower (from the Dec-27 high of 1.3893) could be the beginning of a much larger bear trend towards the 200m at 1.2187. To be clear, more needs to be seen (like a close below the 1.3295 Nov-07 low) before we can make this call with confidence, but the potential is there

US-GER 10yr Spread supports a lower €/$

The US-GER 10yr Spread continues on its well defined, long term widening trend. The break of long term channel resistance, coupled with the Head and Shoulders Base targets 124bps/132ps and potentially beyond. This is €/$ bearish

Gold squeeze

Despite the recent strength of the US $, precious metals remain very well supported. Last week we highlighted the bullish potential for Silver, now Gold looks poised to surprise to the topside. A break of the 1270 pivot should be the catalyst for short squeeze higher, exposing the confluence of resistance between 1362/1399


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1kSgTtu Tyler Durden

China Liquidity Fears Ease As PBOC Injects 255 Billion CNY – Most Since Feb 2013

Despite all the reform policy imperatives to constrict credit and normalize and liberalize policy and rates, the PBOC just provided the largest liquidity injection to its banking system in a year – 255bn CNY. While this is not entirely unusual for a year-end, when Chinese banks have to confess their illiquidity sins and cover mismatches (and are always helped by the PBOC); this year, short-term money-market rates are triple that of last year and there is a very real chance of a very real default within the shadow banking system. Of course, the sell-side are desperately writing cover that this is all priced in and even if the PBOC "lets some Trusts go" then they will come to the rescue and any crisis will be "contained." However, no one knows who will be saved and therein lies the safety-first rub – now where have we heard "contained" before?

 

  • *PBOC TO CONDUCT 75B YUAN OF 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS: TRADER
  • *PBOC TO CONDUCT 180B YUAN OF 21-DAY REVERSE REPOS: TRADER
  • *PBOC OFFERS 7-DAY REVERSE REPO AT 4.1% YIELD: TRADER
  • *PBOC OFFERS 21-DAY REVERSE REPO AT 4.7% YIELD: TRADER

 

China Repo (lower) and Reverse Repo liquidity provision…(biggest liquidity provision in a year)

 

Crucially, the PBOC will have to withdraw this liquidty (obviously as the repo matures) if it is merely year-end window-dressing (as is obvious in the chart above with the large downward red bars in each Feb).

For now short-term repo rates are lower

1d: -85bps at 3.48%

7d: -135bps at 5.25%

14d: -34bps at 5.57%

But of course, the big banks always bid first and scoop up the supply – just as we saw yesterday – its the smaller banks that are the most in distress and 7-day repo went through a 8, 9, and 10% rates – these are triple those of the peak rates during last year's new-year liquidty crunch.

 

And as much as banks will contend – just as the China itself admitted tonight:

Credit default risks with Chinese companies are emerging because of rising borrowing costs and tight liquidity conditions, said the official China Securities Journal in a front page editorial. The government needs policy flexibility to prevent any systematic financial risks.

This problem – described as "contained" by one sell-side shop reminds us of the "it could never happen here" mentality in the 2008 US shadown banking system. Critically, when the PBOC suggests it may let some banks go (to prove its mettle and resolve to fight out of control credut creation); investors will sell first and think later about which are safe and which are not. A 'default' – which looks increasingly likely – may just be the test of just how 'planned' and 'controlled' the Chinese banking system can really be…

 

We have on little question… for now the only Wealth Management Trust product that is publicly on the verge of default is CEQ#1 and that is only a 3 billion CNY position – so why did the PBOC feel the need to provide more than 80 times that amount of liquidity to the banking system unless it was epically worried about contagion and the total size of the Trust market.

 

Of course, the knne-jerk reaction is positive (well it is 255 Billion CNY of magic money) but between the BoJ starting its two-day meeting and John Hilsenrath confirming that Taper is here to stay – JPY weakness (and USD strength) are dragging stocks higher with S&P futures +7.5 from Friday's close.

 

Fun-DURR-mentals?

 

Charts: Bloomberg


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1mxCHJh Tyler Durden

Linux Powered Smart Rifles With Networked Tracking Scopes Have Arrived

Technological advancement is moving ahead so fast it is impossible to keep up. Pretty soon it doesn’t look like humans are going to be responsible for much of anything at all if we continue at this pace.

The latest military “advancement” is a Linux powered rifle that basically only requires the human soldier to mark a target and then a computer can “engage and assist.” Basically it sounds a lot like a drone rifle. Insane.

More from Geeky Gadgets:

It has been reported this week that the United States military has started investing funds into next-generation firearms in the form of “smart rifles” that will be powered by Linux and equipped with a Networked Tracking Scope.

A soldier equipped with a smart rifle and its new Networked Tracking Scope would simply need to tag a target viewable on a screen, which is found on the gun’s scope to allows the computer to engage and assist.

Tracking Point has announced that the US military has purchased six of its new next-generation “smart rifles”, that are priced at between $10,000 and $27,000 each.

Check it out below:


Hunting with a bow and arrow it is not.

For other articles on advancements in military/spy technology check out:

Meet the MQ-4C Triton – A New Navy Drone with the Wingspan of a Boeing 757

DARPA Unveils “Atlas”: A 6 Foot Tall Humanoid Robot

Meet ARGUS: The World’s Highest Resolution Video Surveillance Platform

In Liberty,
Michael Krieger

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Linux Powered Smart Rifles With Networked Tracking Scopes Have Arrived originally appeared on A Lightning War for Liberty on January 20, 2014.

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Polar Vortex 2.0?

With California experiencing emergency drought conditions and sun-glass-clad bronzed beauties driving their convertibles around in Lake Tahoe amid not an inch of real snow, the East Coast – just emerging from the cocoon following Polar Vortex 1.0 – is, as we warned, about to be confronted with another chilly blast of "Arctic Cold" weather with temperatures up to 25 degress below average and 8 inches of snow due for New York City tomorrow, and wind chills up to 40 below for the Upper Midwest On the bright side, it will be a BTFD opportunity for all those missed earnings expectations for Q1 retailers.

 

As MarketWatch notes:

New York City could get up to 8 inches on Tuesday and Tuesday night, while Washington D.C. could get up to 7 inches. In Chicago, up to 5 inches could fall overnight Monday and temperatures Tuesday could be as cold as 13 below zero, including wind chill

 

 

Via  National Weather Service,

A strong cold front will dive southward from the Plains and Midwest on Monday to the East Coast and Southeast on Tuesday. Bitter wind chills to 40 degrees below zero will impact the Upper Midwest. At the leading edge of the cold air, a winter storm is forecast to develop on Tuesday that will impact the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Coast with snow and blowing snow.

…Heavy snow for the Mid-Atlantic into Southern New England…

…Temperatures will be 10 to 25 degrees below average from the Mississippi Valley into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic…

A front moving off the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Coast will develop a wave of low pressure over the Tennessee Valley that will intensify rapidly moving off the North Carolina Coast by Tuesday afternoon/evening.  The storm will continue to deepen Tuesday night into Wednesday morning moving just off the Mid-Atlantic Coast paralleling the Northeast Coast to just off Cape Cod by Wednesday morning.

The system will produce light snow over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley by Monday evening expanding into parts of the Ohio Valley by early Tuesday morning.  As the storm moves into the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday, moisture from the Atlantic will move inland aiding in the development of snow over the Mid-Atlantic to the Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley.

 

The system's dynamics will increase, producing an area of moderate to heavy snow over parts of the Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday evening, moving into Southern New England and Coastal Northern New England by Wednesday morning.


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1mmRXpr Tyler Durden

What Recovery? Sears And J.C. Penney Are Dying

Submitted by Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog,

Two of the largest retailers in America are steamrolling toward bankruptcy.  Sears and J.C. Penney are both losing hundreds of millions of dollars each quarter, and both of them appear to be caught in the grip of a death spiral from which it will be impossible to escape.  Once upon a time, Sears was actually the largest retailer in the United States, and even today Sears and J.C. Penney are "anchor stores" in malls all over the country. 

When I was growing up, my mother would take me to the mall when it was time to go clothes shopping, and there were usually just two options: Sears or J.C. Penney.  When I got older, I actually worked for Sears for a little while.  At the time, nobody would have ever imagined that Sears or J.C. Penney could go out of business someday.  But that is precisely what is happening.  They are both shutting down unprofitable stores and laying off employees in a desperate attempt to avoid bankruptcy, but everyone knows that they are just delaying the inevitable.  These two great retail giants are dying, and they certainly won't be the last to fall.  This is just the beginning.

The Death Of Sears

Sales have declined at Sears for 27 quarters in a row, and the legendary retailer has been closing hundreds of stores and selling off property in a frantic attempt to turn things around.

Unfortunately for Sears, it is not working.  In fact, Sears has announced that it expects to lose "between $250 million to $360 million" for the quarter that will end on February 1st.

Things have gotten so bad that Sears is even making commercials that openly acknowledge how badly it is struggling.  For example, consider the following bit of dialogue from a recent Sears television commercial featuring two young women…

"Wait, the movie theater is on the other side," the passenger says.

 

"But Sears always has parking!" the driver responds.

Sears always has parking???

Of course the unspoken admission is that Sears always has parking because nobody shops there anymore.

I have posted video of the commercial below…

 

A couple of months ago I walked into a Sears store in the middle of the week and it was like a ghost town.  A few associates were milling around here and there having private discussions among themselves, but other than that it was eerily quiet.

You can find 18 incredibly depressing photographs which do a great job of illustrating why Sears is steadily dying right here.  This was once one of America's greatest companies, but soon it will be dead.

The Death Of J.C. Penney

J.C. Penny has been a dead man walking for a long time.  In some ways, it is in even worse shape than Sears.

If you can believe it, J.C. Penney actually lost 586 million dollars during the second quarter of 2013 alone.

How in the world do you lose 586 million dollars in three months?

Are they paying employees to flush giant piles of cash down the toilets?

This week J.C. Penney announced that it is eliminating 2,000 jobs and closing 33 stores.  The following is a list of the store closings that was released to the public…

Selma, Ala. — Selma Mall

Rancho Cucamonga, Calif. — Arrow Plaza

Colorado Springs — Chapel Hills Mall

Meriden, Conn. — Meriden Square

Leesburg, Fla. — Lake Square Mall

Port Richey, Fla. — Gulf View Square

Muscatine, Iowa — Muscatine Mall

Bloomingdale, Ill. — Stratford Square Mall

Forsyth, Ill. — Hickory Point Mall

Marion, Ind. — Five Points Mall

Warsaw, Ind. — Marketplace Shopping Center

Salisbury, Md. — The Centre at Salisbury

Marquette, Mich. — Westwood Plaza

Worthington, Minn. — Northland Mall

Gautier, Miss. — Singing River Mall

Natchez, Miss. — Natchez Mall

Butte, Mont. — Butte Plaza Shopping Center

Cut Bank, Mont.

Kinston, N.C. — Vernon Park Mall

Burlington, N.J. — Burlington Center

Phillipsburg, N.J. — Phillipsburg Mall

Wooster, Ohio — Wayne Towne Plaza

Exton, Pa. — Exton Square Mall

Hazleton, Pa. — LaurelMall

Washington, Pa. — Washington Mall

Chattanooga — Northgate Mall

Bristol, Va. — Bristol Mall

Norfolk, Va. — Military Circle Mall

Fond du Lac, Wis., Forest Mall

Janesville, Wis. — Janesville Mall

Rhinelander, Wis. — Lincoln Plaza Center

Rice Lake, Wis. — Cedar Mall

Wausau, Wis. — Wausau Mall

The CEO of J.C. Penney says that these closures were necessary for the future of the company…

"As we continue to progress toward long-term profitable growth, it is necessary to reexamine the financial performance of our store portfolio and adjust our national footprint accordingly," CEO Myron Ullman said in a news release.

Actually, his statement would be a lot more accurate if he replaced "continue to progress toward long-term profitable growth" with " prepare for bankruptcy".

It would be hard to overstate how much of a disaster 2013 was for J.C. Penney.  The following is an excerpt from a recent CNN article

It's been a brutal year for J.C. Penney, its stock falling over 60% in the past 12 months. The company has been losing hundreds of millions of dollars per quarter, and is in the midst of another turnaround effort after ousting former Apple executive Ron Johnson last year.

Overall, shares of J.C. Penney have fallen by an astounding 84 percent since February 2012.  And keep in mind that this decline has happened during one of the greatest stock market rallies of all-time.

For now, J.C. Penney will continue to try to desperately raise more cash from investors that are foolish enough to give it to them, but all that is really accomplishing is just delaying the inevitable.

If you would like to see some photos that graphically illustrate why J.C. Penney is falling apart, you can find some right here.

And of course Sears and J.C. Penney are not the only large retailers that have fallen on hard times.  This week the CEO of Best Buy admitted that sales declined at his chain during the holiday season…

Best Buy shares skid on Thursday after the retailer said total revenue and sales at its established U.S stores fell in the all-important holiday season due to intense discounting by rivals, supply constraints for key products and weak traffic in December.

In the immediate aftermath of that announcement, Best Buy stock was down more than 30 percent in pre-market trading.

And Macy's just announced that it is laying off 2,500 employees in an attempt to move in a more profitable direction.

So why is all of this happening?

Aren't we supposed to be in the midst of an "economic recovery"?

That is what the Obama administration and the mainstream media keep telling us, but it is simply not true.

In fact, a new Gallup survey has found that the number of Americans that are "financially worse off" than a year ago is significantly higher than the number of Americans that say that they are "financially better off" than a year ago…

More Americans, 42%, say they are financially worse off now than they were a year ago, reversing the lower levels found over the past two years. Just more than a third of Americans say their financial situation has improved from a year ago.

That is why these stores are dying.

Things continue to get even worse for the middle class.

But a lot of people out there will continue to deny what is happening right in front of their eyes.  They are kind of like that woman over in California who was conned out of half a million dollars by a Nigerian online dating scam.  They will never admit the truth until it is far too late to do anything about it.

So have you been to a Sears or a J.C. Penney lately?


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/LKgZ6W Tyler Durden

The “Rich And Powerful” Flock To Davos: Now… And Then

With the 1% of the 1% due to engorge Davos with their high-thinking centrally-planned solutions to the world’s oh-so-foreseeable problems, the FT takes a look back at a “world above it all” from 1914. Then too, Margaret McMillan notes, they would have been puzzling over how to cope with their fast-changing, troubled world. They would have worried – as they do today – about the future; concerned that the pattern of economic boom and bust was dangerously unstable; and warning that society might splinter as inequality grew and the middle classes were squeezed. One thing that would not have troubled Davos that January 100 years ago was the possibility of a major war. Europe had just come through two dangerous wars in the Balkans, which surely showed that the international order could cope with crises. And so they would have gone their separate ways confident that they would all meet again in 1915.

 

 

Via The FT’s Margaret McMillan,

The crowds promenading on the main streets or jamming into the cafés and restaurants of the small resort town are elegant. No jogging pants or puffy jackets but women wearing huge fur hats, ankle-length skirts and wonderful wraps; or men in plus fours carrying skates or skis. The occasional emaciated passer-by is not a supermodel or fitness guru but one of the consumptives seeking a cure in the healing mountain air. Welcome to the World Economic Forum – as it might have been in the Davos of January 1914.

 

Then too they would have been puzzling over how to cope with their fast-changing, troubled world. The lovely wife of the Russian chief of staff might have swept by, ignoring unkind whispers that her besotted husband had helped himself to state funds to keep her in those sables. English lords, Austrian grand dukes, Hungarian landowners, American tycoons, German generals, Japanese diplomats, Indian maharajas, Brazilian mining magnates – Davos then, as now, was host to the world’s rich and powerful.

 

John Pierpont Morgan, the titan of Wall Street; British newspaper proprietor Lord Northcliffe (already showing signs of mental instability); Hugo Stinnes, the great German industrialist who was warning his own government against its belligerent foreign policy – they would all have wanted to be there. So, too, would the men representing new, world-changing technologies: Thomas Edison, busy promoting the many uses of electricity; Guglielmo Marconi, whose wireless was transforming international communications; or perhaps Graf von Zeppelin, whose airships were already carrying passengers.

 

For amusement, they might have had the leading learned men of the time. Perhaps the US Captain Alfred Mahan, who had done so much to persuade world leaders that history showed sea power was the key to a nation’s greatness; or H G Wells, who predicted a future including airships and armoured vehicles powered by the new internal combustion engines. Australian opera singer Nellie Melba might have performed for them in the evenings or Nijinsky repeated the scandal of his premiere the previous year of “The Rite of Spring”. They may also have spotted the formidable German novelist Thomas Mann, whose wife, Katia, sought treatment for tuberculosis in a sanatorium that later became the elegant Waldhotel, and for whom Davos was his Magic Mountain.

 

Sir Edward Grey, the British foreign secretary, would not have come for he disliked foreign parts and most foreigners. Winston Churchill, first lord of the admiralty, would not have missed the excitement of a big international meeting. Henry Asquith, UK prime minister, would have come but only reluctantly because of the domestic situation: home rule for Ireland was dividing the nation; and he missed the young Venetia Stanley, to whom he daily wrote passionate letters.

 

Everyone would have been very civilised, of course, but keen observers – such as obscure Russian journalist Lev Trotsky – would have noticed that Raymond Poincaré, the nationalist French president, frowned when finance minister Joseph Caillaux was too friendly to the Germans. Caillaux’s adorable wife kept him company, her hands tucked into a fur muff. (Two months later she would pull a revolver out of the same muff and shoot the editor of Figaro for threatening her husband.) Poincaré would have preferred to spend his time with the Russians, France’s most important ally; or the British, whom he hoped would give him a military alliance.

 

The Russian tsar was unlikely to be in Davos – he did not like to leave his family and his ailing heir – but the German kaiser was bound to be there. Wilhelm loved to parade on the world’s stage, telling everyone how he worked ceaselessly for peace. His insistence might have carried more weight had he not just increased the size of his army and navy. While his chief of staff took the cure back home, Friedrich von Bernhardi, another German general, was bound to cause a stir in Davos, having just penned a bestseller extolling the virtues of war.

 

Radicals or revolutionaries would not have disturbed the mountain tranquillity – the Swiss police would have seen to that – and militants such as suffragettes could threaten hunger strikes all they liked. So our imaginary delegates could eat their cakes and sip their tea in peace.

 

Yet still they would have worried – as they do today – about the future. Montagu Norman of the Bank of England was only one of those warning that the pattern of economic boom and bust was dangerously unstable. The papers were full of stories of labour unrest and violent strikes. Social reformers such as new US president Woodrow Wilson were warning that society might splinter as inequality grew and the middle classes were squeezed.

 

One thing that would not have troubled Davos that January 100 years ago was the possibility of a major war. Europe had just come through two dangerous wars in the Balkans, which surely showed that the international order could cope with crises. And so they would have gone their separate ways confident that they would all meet again in 1915.

It seems, as is the case now, much self-congratulatory back-slapping and little action is (and was) the order of the day in Davos each year… and yet we, the great unwashed, will be treated to minute-by-minute coverage of every fart and frown from the fraus and frauleins as they share with the people, the plan for our future.


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/KuGHvt Tyler Durden

The "Rich And Powerful" Flock To Davos: Now… And Then

With the 1% of the 1% due to engorge Davos with their high-thinking centrally-planned solutions to the world’s oh-so-foreseeable problems, the FT takes a look back at a “world above it all” from 1914. Then too, Margaret McMillan notes, they would have been puzzling over how to cope with their fast-changing, troubled world. They would have worried – as they do today – about the future; concerned that the pattern of economic boom and bust was dangerously unstable; and warning that society might splinter as inequality grew and the middle classes were squeezed. One thing that would not have troubled Davos that January 100 years ago was the possibility of a major war. Europe had just come through two dangerous wars in the Balkans, which surely showed that the international order could cope with crises. And so they would have gone their separate ways confident that they would all meet again in 1915.

 

 

Via The FT’s Margaret McMillan,

The crowds promenading on the main streets or jamming into the cafés and restaurants of the small resort town are elegant. No jogging pants or puffy jackets but women wearing huge fur hats, ankle-length skirts and wonderful wraps; or men in plus fours carrying skates or skis. The occasional emaciated passer-by is not a supermodel or fitness guru but one of the consumptives seeking a cure in the healing mountain air. Welcome to the World Economic Forum – as it might have been in the Davos of January 1914.

 

Then too they would have been puzzling over how to cope with their fast-changing, troubled world. The lovely wife of the Russian chief of staff might have swept by, ignoring unkind whispers that her besotted husband had helped himself to state funds to keep her in those sables. English lords, Austrian grand dukes, Hungarian landowners, American tycoons, German generals, Japanese diplomats, Indian maharajas, Brazilian mining magnates – Davos then, as now, was host to the world’s rich and powerful.

 

John Pierpont Morgan, the titan of Wall Street; British newspaper proprietor Lord Northcliffe (already showing signs of mental instability); Hugo Stinnes, the great German industrialist who was warning his own government against its belligerent foreign policy – they would all have wanted to be there. So, too, would the men representing new, world-changing technologies: Thomas Edison, busy promoting the many uses of electricity; Guglielmo Marconi, whose wireless was transforming international communications; or perhaps Graf von Zeppelin, whose airships were already carrying passengers.

 

For amusement, they might have had the leading learned men of the time. Perhaps the US Captain Alfred Mahan, who had done so much to persuade world leaders that history showed sea power was the key to a nation’s greatness; or H G Wells, who predicted a future including airships and armoured vehicles powered by the new internal combustion engines. Australian opera singer Nellie Melba might have performed for them in the evenings or Nijinsky repeated the scandal of his premiere the previous year of “The Rite of Spring”. They may also have spotted the formidable German novelist Thomas Mann, whose wife, Katia, sought treatment for tuberculosis in a sanatorium that later became the elegant Waldhotel, and for whom Davos was his Magic Mountain.

 

Sir Edward Grey, the British foreign secretary, would not have come for he disliked foreign parts and most foreigners. Winston Churchill, first lord of the admiralty, would not have missed the excitement of a big international meeting. Henry Asquith, UK prime minister, would have come but only reluctantly because of the domestic situation: home rule for Ireland was dividing the nation; and he missed the young Venetia Stanley, to whom he daily wrote passionate letters.

 

Everyone would have been very civilised, of course, but keen observers – such as obscure Russian journalist Lev Trotsky – would have noticed that Raymond Poincaré, the nationalist French president, frowned when finance minister Joseph Caillaux was too friendly to the Germans. Caillaux’s adorable wife kept him company, her hands tucked into a fur muff. (Two months later she would pull a revolver out of the same muff and shoot the editor of Figaro for threatening her husband.) Poincaré would have preferred to spend his time with the Russians, France’s most important ally; or the British, whom he hoped would give him a military alliance.

 

The Russian tsar was unlikely to be in Davos – he did not like to leave his family and his ailing heir – but the German kaiser was bound to be there. Wilhelm loved to parade on the world’s stage, telling everyone how he worked ceaselessly for peace. His insistence might have carried more weight had he not just increased the size of his army and navy. While his chief of staff took the cure back home, Friedrich von Bernhardi, another German general, was bound to cause a stir in Davos, having just penned a bestseller extolling the virtues of war.

 

Radicals or revolutionaries would not have disturbed the mountain tranquillity – the Swiss police would have seen to that – and militants such as suffragettes could threaten hunger strikes all they liked. So our imaginary delegates could eat their cakes and sip their tea in peace.

 

Yet still they would have worried – as they do today – about the future. Montagu Norman of the Bank of England was only one of those warning that the pattern of economic boom and bust was dangerously unstable. The papers were full of stories of labour unrest and violent strikes. Social reformers such as new US president Woodrow Wilson were warning that society might splinter as inequality grew and the middle classes were squeezed.

 

One thing that would not have troubled Davos that January 100 years ago was the possibility of a major war. Europe had just come through two dangerous wars in the Balkans, which surely showed that the international order could cope with crises. And so they would have gone their separate ways confident that they would all meet again in 1915.

It seems, as is the case now, much self-congratulatory back-slapping and little action is (and was) the order of the day in Davos each year… and yet we, the great unwashed, will be treated to minute-by-minute co
verage of every fart and frown from the fraus and frauleins as they share with the people, the plan for our future.


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/KuGHvt Tyler Durden