Tag: news

For well over five years now we’ve been told that the US was in recovery and that as most the biggest risk was a potential double dip or worse a slow down to the recovery.

 

 The reality however was that the US never experienced a real recovery (unless you work at one of the “chosen” firms on Wall Street).

 

Housing has re-entered a bubble driven by liquidity, not first time homebuyers entering the market.

 

The key relationship for housing is home prices relative to income, NOT nominal prices. Stocks are valued relative to earnings. Homes have to be priced relative to incomes.

 

Today, the median US income is $51K. The median home price is $328K. So homes are priced at 6.4X incomes.

 

To put this into perspective, in 2007, the housing bubble was only marginally higher than this with homes priced at 6.8X incomes. So housing, which is alleged to be in a recovery, is not much more affordable today than it was in 2007… at a time when home prices were more overpriced than at any point in the last 100 YEARs.

 

Speaking of incomes, they remain WELL below their 2007 peaks… which were in fact below the 2000 peaks. In fact, the median income in the US today is effectively the same as back in 1987.

 

 

Again, NO recovery to be seen here.

Indeed, the number of people of working age who actually HAVE jobs is back to levels no seen since the 70s. Gotta love that recovery… when the percentage of people working is the same as it was back when the US was in a recession four decades ago!

At the end of the day, the entire economic landscape is very simple to understand. The economy grows when people make more money and spend that money on things including homes.

Lower incomes= lower spending= lower economic activity. Sure, you can reflate a credit bubble in which spending rises briefly due to people having easy access to credit…

But at the end of the day, all this does is set the stage for another economic collapse when people once again default on their credit card payments/ mortgage payments.

That day of reckoning is coming… It’s just a matter of time.

For a FREE Special Report outlining how to set up your portfolio from this, swing by: http://ift.tt/170oFLH

Best Regards

Phoenix Capital Research 

 

 

 

 

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1hwdVWz Phoenix Capital Research

Submitted by Hunter Lewis via The Circle Bastiat Mises Economics blog,

People often ask today: if the Fed has created so much new money, why hasn’t it produced more inflation?

When the Fed creates masses of new money, it initially flows to Wall Street, which profits from  it in a variety of imaginative ways, but from there its path is unpredictable.

The Fed inserted into the TARP bill in 2008 the authority to pay interest on bank reserves. Of course this interest is paid by creating even more new money, but it provides an incentive for banks to leave reserves idle.

On the other hand, the reserves are not as idle as they look. For example, they support derivatives activity. The total amount of derivatives held by the top four US banks is estimated at the moment to be $217 trillion. And keep in mind that it was derivatives exposure that brought Lehman Brothers down in 2008.

To the degree that the new money does get out into the economy, it will flow in different directions and have different effects. If it reaches the average consumer, it will produce consumer price inflation. This does seem to be happening. Consumer price inflation calculated as it was in the past would be much higher than today’s reported 1%.

If the new money  reaches rich people, it will drive up the prices of what rich people buy. We see this today when a single townhouse in Manhattan is listed for over $100 million. If it flows into the stock market, it will raise stock prices. If enough flows in this direction, it will create an asset bubble, which seems to be happening once again today. Asset bubbles are followed by crashes, which in turn bring recession and unemployment.

Wherever the new money flows, it may increase demand in the short run, only to reduce it in the long run. This is because the new money created by the Fed is not just given away. It is made available to banks to lend, which means that it enters the economy as debt. A little debt, especially if spent or invested wisely, may help an economy. But too much will strangle it.

As consumers, businesses, and governments become weighed down with more and more debt from the past, especially debt that was spent unwisely, the interest and principal payments become increasingly burdensome. Dollars that might have been spent on new investments with the potential to create new jobs and new income are instead siphoned off to pay for past mistakes. We end up with a zombie economy, still breathing, but just barely.

Historically we can measure how many dollars of economic growth we get from each new dollar of debt. At the moment, it seems to be negative. In other words, more new debt makes it worse, not better.

Despite this plain evidence, the Fed continues to try to persuade consumers and businesses to increase their borrowing and spending and also underwrites government borrowing and spending. It holds interest rates very low, which for now keeps the debt house of cards from tumbling down.

Will the Fed’s feckless money creation end in inflation or depression? It could go either way, which is potentially confusing. Insofar as it stokes demand, it could lead to inflation. Insofar as it increases an already too heavy debt burden, it could lead instead to recession, joblessness, and depression. Or it could lead first to the one and then to the other.

It could also lead to a third possibility: stagflation. In this scenario, consumer prices advance even while unemployment increases. We had this in the 1970’s. If we measured inflation as we did in the 1970’s, it would be apparent that this already exists today.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1dzWjdm Tyler Durden

We thought that all perfectly idiotic headlines regarding the encroachment of central-planning would come from traditional banana republics as Venezuela, and of course France, such as the following:

• MADURO SAYS VENEZUELA TO HAVE NEW FX SYSTEM
• MADURO SAYS DOLLAR TO REMAIN AT 6.3 BS/DOLLAR IN 2014
• MADURO CREATES AGENCY TO ENFORCE FAIR PRICES
• MADURO SAYS LAW TO ALLOW MAX. 30% PROFIT MARGIN
• NIGERIA TO SET UP FANNIE MAE-STYLE MORTGAGE FINANCE CO.
• FRANCE PASSES LAW TO TAX WEALTHY AT 75%

And so on.

Boy were we wrong.

Moments ago The Hill reported that what many thought was absolutely impossible, may in fact become a reality: President Obama is considering issuing an executive order (#394,039,993,837?) to raise the minimum wage for Federal Workers… and in the process – with the help of that other central planner par excellence Bernyellen – lap all those other Banana republics that everyone so enjoys making fun of.

From the Hill:

President Obama is considering using his executive authority to raise the minimum wage for federal contractors, he told Senate Democrats during a closed meeting at the White House.

 

Lawmakers present at the Wednesday night session said Thursday that Obama did not bring up the matter himself, but appeared receptive to the idea when questioned on the topic. “The issue was raised,” Sen. Barbra Boxer (D-Calif.) said Thursday. “He said he was looking at it, as he looks at everything else.”

 

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who was also in attendance, offered a similar account and said he has heard from members of the president’s staff that he is seriously considering executive action on the measure.

 

Obama and congressional Democrats are pushing for an across-the-board hike in the minimum hourly wage, from $7.25 to $10.10. But Republicans are cool to the plan, warning it could hurt the economy.

 

Federal contractors represent only a fraction of the nation’s employees. Businesses that together received more than $446 billion in federal contracts employ some 2 million workers, only some of whom are paid the minimum wage. Still, an increase for that segment of the workforce could generate momentum toward a raise for all workers now paid the lowest amount allowable by law.

 

An executive order to that effect would be tantamount to setting a minimum wage for federal contractors, they said. “Profitable corporations that receive lucrative contracts from the federal government should pay all of their workers a decent wage,” the lawmakers wrote. Obama in recent days has vowed to make 2014 “a year of action,” even if it means relying heavily on administrative authority to pursue policy goals in lieu of congressional action.

Suddenly it all makes sense: in order to “fix” one idiotic act of central planning with unintended consequences, namely letting the Fed take over capital markets in order to preserve the oligarchic, kleptocratic system, pardon financial stability, and in the process make the uber-wealthy richer beyond their wildest dreams, while making the poor yearn for the days of the first Great Depression, the president will now one-up that act, and progress with even more “centrally-(un)planned”, authoritarian acts which bypass Congress entirely, make a mockery of the republic, result in even more adverse unintended consequences, and practically assure that in the great race for the Banana Republic (or is that Banana Dictatorship?) endgame, the US has just overtaken everyone.

If only the Fed could now proceed to stop pretending things are getting better and promptly Taper the Taper, so as to push the superturbo printing button, it would at least assure that the great reset will come that much faster. At this point, it couldn’t possibly come fast enough.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1dVdHnB Tyler Durden

The infamous ‘scourge on insider-traders everywhere’ Preet Bharara has taken a day off from Wall Street duties to focus on what could be considerably more of a concern. The NY Attorney General just disclosed that  Daniel Wilson – the Chemistry Manager at the Indian Point Nuclear Power plant – falsified and fabricated test results for diesel fuel contamination used to power emergency generators.. in order that the plant would not have to be shut down. Have no fear though US public… especially those who live near White Plains, Bharara’s punishment for this potentially disastrous ‘deliberate misconduct’ – a $500 fine and 18 months probation. Well that will teach him, eh?

 

Full statement:

Former Indian Point Supervisor Sentenced In White Plains Federal Court For Falsifying Nuclear Facility Records
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Thursday, January 16, 2014

Preet Bharara, the United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York, announced that DANIEL WILSON was sentenced today in White Plains federal court to 18 months’ probation for engaging in deliberate misconduct while serving as Chemistry Manager at Indian Point Energy Center (“Indian Point”), a nuclear power plant in Westchester County. WILSON was sentenced by United States District Judge Nelson Román, who also imposed a $500 fine.

U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara stated: “The safe operation of the Indian Point nuclear power facility is of critical importance to our communities in and around it. This Office will be vigilant about prosecuting criminal misconduct that takes place at the facility.”

According to the felony Information to which WILSON pleaded guilty, the Complaint, and information provided for purposes of sentencing:

Indian Point maintains a backup system of emergency generators for use in part to provide power in the event of a power outage and shutdown. WILSON, the Chemistry Manager at Indian Point from 2007 through 2012, was responsible for, among other things, ensuring that certain aspects of the operation at Indian Point were in compliance with technical specifications required by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (“NRC”).

 

One such requirement related to the amount of particulate matter in the diesel fuel used to power emergency generators at Indian Point, which could not exceed a set limit. In 2011, tests of the diesel fuel maintained for use in powering the emergency generators at Indian Point showed that the ratio of particulate matter in the diesel fuel exceeded the limit set by the NRC.

 

In February 2012, WILSON concealed material facts from his employer and the NRC by fabricating test data, falsely showing that resampling tests of diesel fuel tested below the applicable NRC limit. In fact, no such resamples were taken, and the purported test data were fabrications. Later in February 2012, WILSON, in response to questioning by other employees of Indian Point in advance of an inspection by the NRC, wrote a report – the kind on which the NRC ordinarily relies in inspecting nuclear facilities for safety – in which he gave a false explanation for the lack of supporting documentation for his fabricated test results. In a subsequent interview with NRC personnel, WILSON admitted that he had fabricated the test results so that Indian Point would not have to shut down.

In April 2012, Wilson resigned from Indian Point.

On October 16, 2013, WILSON pleaded guilty to a one-count Information charging him with deliberate misconduct in connection with a matter regulated by the NRC, in violation of Title 42, United States Code, Section 2273.

*                      *                      *

Mr. Bharara praised the efforts of the NRC Office of Investigations in connection with the investigation.

The prosecution is being handled by the Office’s White Plains Division. Assistant U.S. Attorney Benjamin Allee is in charge of the prosecution.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1dyL7fB Tyler Durden

Forensic Asia, a Hong-Kong-based reserch firm issued a "sell" recommendation on HSBC on the basis of "questionable assets" on its balance sheet. As The Telegraph reports the analysts involved actually worked at HSBC for 15 years and suggest the ginat bank could have overstated its assets by more than £50bn and ultimately need a capital injection of close to £70bn before the end of this decade. "HSBC has not made the necessary adjustments, during the quantitative easing reprieve…The result has been extreme earnings overstatement, causing HSBC to become one of the largest practitioners of capital forebearance globally… This charade appears to be ending."

 

Via The Telegraph,

…

 

Forensic Asia on Tuesday began its coverage of Britain’s largest banking group with a ‘sell’ recommendation, warning the lender had between $63.6bn (£38.7bn) and $92.3bn of “questionable assets” on its balance sheet, ranging from loan loss reserves and accrued interest to deferred tax assets, defined benefit pension schemes and opaque Level 3 assets.

 

The broker’s note is written by two of its senior analysts, Thomas Monaco (a former senior bank examiner at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York) and Andrew Haskins (previously worked at HSBC for 15 years).

 

…

 

In the report, the analysts apply what they describe as a “moderate stress test” to the balance sheets of HSBC’s major subsidiaries.

 

…

 

Taking the analysis further, the report sets out the impact of incoming Basel III capital rules and says HSBC could be required at a minimum to raise close to $60bn in new capital by 2019 and potentially as much as $111bn.

 

“In our view, HSBC has not made the necessary adjustments, during the quantitative easing reprieve. Rather, it has allowed legacy problems to linger as new ones in emerging markets gather pace. The result has been extreme earnings overstatement, causing HSBC to become one of the largest practitioners of capital forebearance globally. This charade appears to be ending, given how few earnings levers remain besides selling off core elements of the franchise and the stringencies of Basel III compliance,” wrote Forensic Asia.

 

The broker adds: “While having stated capital ratios well above peer averages is all well and good, HSBC’s stated capital ratios would appear to be nothing more than a mirage if our analysis is correct.”

Interestingly, these findings do not include litigation costs which can only make matters worse. Of course, this kind of "mirage" is just as applicable to the entirely opaque Level 3 assets of all the majot TBTF US banks so one can only imagine just how large the capital shortfalls really are. But don;t worry – Cramer says NIM will be huge (but the banks themselves don't)…

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1atfWxJ Tyler Durden

You really can’t make this shit up. From the funniest person on financial comedy TV (whose most memorable TV appearance will always be roaring that Bear Stearns is fine days before its collapse), here is his “opinion” on Best Sell Buy, entirely in his own words.

November 20: Jim Cramer opines on Best Buy:

Pillars of Strength in Retail

 

The homework doesn’t dovetail with the shares. That’s how I felt about the way Best Buy (BBY), Home Depot (HD) and Dick’s (DKS) traded in the wake of the earnings calls — because all three were basically in all-systems-go mode for suppliers.

 

Regarding Best Buy, it looks as if the tablet is the standout. I know that Apple (AAPL) has become a hated equity, but I keep hearing good things, so I can’t join the nitpicker mob. You did get a nice Chrome call-out for Google (GOOG), but that’s just icing on the Google lovers’ cake.

 

All three chain stores — Home Depot, Dick’s and Best Buy — are pictures of strength, not weakness. All three stocks should be bought, not sold, on share weakness, despite whatever the “action” says about how well the companies performed. They have performed superbly against both their fields and against retail in general.

Then the next day, November 21, just in case the message was lost:

Best Buy Co. Inc. Jim Cramer ranked this stock a Buy. Cramer previously ranked this stock a Buy on November 15, 2013. The news about tablets also bodes well for Best Buy, a company that has turned around its ailing retail position to once again become one of the stronger names selling technological products to consumers. Cramer said that retail stocks were especially well-positioned at the moment, and he did not neglect to mention Best Buy near the top of his list of retail all-stars.

Fast forward to today, following a 30% collapse in the stock price in one day. From TheStreet:

It really makes you wonder what went wrong when you see a company down 30% in a single trading session, TheStreet’s Jim Cramer said of Best Buy.

 

The co-portfolio manager of the Action Alerts PLUS portfolio said most analysts had been bullish on the stock, all the way into the upper $30s.

Uhm, just the analysts?

Those expectations were way off, Cramer said. The company reported sales fell 0.8% for the nine weeks ended Jan. 4, while analysts had expected growth and no real degradation in gross margins.

 

Cramer advised investors who want to buy the stock to wait until Friday because these types of violent moves tend to pan out over a two-day period.

So buy, buy, buy Best Buy at $40, but wait at $26? Gotcha.

And the piece de resistance comes from CNBC this morning:

Cramer said the electronics retailer needs a “big reset,” and that analysts erred in thinking the company could compete with online shopping outlets. He said the holidays were an “Amazon quarter.”

…

 

A steady stream of positive analyst notes before the busy holiday season helped set up Best Buy for its huge 30 percent drop Thursday, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said.

 

“Each day one came out and then another came out,” Cramer said Thursday on “Squawk on the Street.” “If they had all come out at once, the stock wouldn’t have been pumped to where it was. It was a serial rollout of positives.”

Wait a minute. It was precisely the “steady stream of positive analyst notes” that Cramer used to pitch as the buying catalyst in Best Buy just back on November 19 and as the reason why people should not sell the stock!!!

The people who are selling [Best Buy] don’t realize the power of the reiteration of [analyst] recommendations we are going to get in the next few days.

 

But… but… less than two months later it was this very reason that Cramer used as an excuse why the company sold off! It really isn’t… it doesn’t… it can’t… it makes no…

Aghhhh #Ref!

Summarizing it all below:

 

And now we eagerly await the sequel: “Get Poor Instantly“

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/Lc3tbe Tyler Durden

You really can’t make this shit up. From the funniest person on financial comedy TV (whose most memorable TV appearance will always be roaring that Bear Stearns is fine days before its collapse), here is his “opinion” on Best Sell Buy, entirely in his own words.

November 20: Jim Cramer opines on Best Buy:

Pillars of Strength in Retail

 

The homework doesn’t dovetail with the shares. That’s how I felt about the way Best Buy (BBY), Home Depot (HD) and Dick’s (DKS) traded in the wake of the earnings calls — because all three were basically in all-systems-go mode for suppliers.

 

Regarding Best Buy, it looks as if the tablet is the standout. I know that Apple (AAPL) has become a hated equity, but I keep hearing good things, so I can’t join the nitpicker mob. You did get a nice Chrome call-out for Google (GOOG), but that’s just icing on the Google lovers’ cake.

 

All three chain stores — Home Depot, Dick’s and Best Buy — are pictures of strength, not weakness. All three stocks should be bought, not sold, on share weakness, despite whatever the “action” says about how well the companies performed. They have performed superbly against both their fields and against retail in general.

Then the next day, November 21, just in case the message was lost:

Best Buy Co. Inc. Jim Cramer ranked this stock a Buy. Cramer previously ranked this stock a Buy on November 15, 2013. The news about tablets also bodes well for Best Buy, a company that has turned around its ailing retail position to once again become one of the stronger names selling technological products to consumers. Cramer said that retail stocks were especially well-positioned at the moment, and he did not neglect to mention Best Buy near the top of his list of retail all-stars.

Fast forward to today, following a 30% collapse in the stock price in one day. From TheStreet:

It really makes you wonder what went wrong when you see a company down 30% in a single trading session, TheStreet’s Jim Cramer said of Best Buy.

 

The co-portfolio manager of the Action Alerts PLUS portfolio said most analysts had been bullish on the stock, all the way into the upper $30s.

Uhm, just the analysts?

Those expectations were way off, Cramer said. The company reported sales fell 0.8% for the nine weeks ended Jan. 4, while analysts had expected growth and no real degradation in gross margins.

 

Cramer advised investors who want to buy the stock to wait until Friday because these types of violent moves tend to pan out over a two-day period.

So buy, buy, buy Best Buy at $40, but wait at $26? Gotcha.

And the piece de resistance comes from CNBC this morning:

Cramer said the electronics retailer needs a “big reset,” and that analysts erred in thinking the company could compete with online shopping outlets. He said the holidays were an “Amazon quarter.”

…

 

A steady stream of positive analyst notes before the busy holiday season helped set up Best Buy for its huge 30 percent drop Thursday, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said.

 

“Each day one came out and then another came out,” Cramer said Thursday on “Squawk on the Street.” “If they had all come out at once, the stock wouldn’t have been pumped to where it was. It was a serial rollout of positives.”

Wait a minute. It was precisely the “steady stream of positive analyst notes” that Cramer used to pitch as the buying catalyst in Best Buy just back on November 19 and as the reason why people should not sell the stock!!!

The people who are selling [Best Buy] don’t realize the power of the reiteration of [analyst] recommendations we are going to get in the next few days.

 

But… but… less than two months later it was this very reason that Cramer used as an excuse why the company sold off! It really isn’t… it doesn’t… it can’t… it makes no…

Aghhhh #Ref!

Summarizing it all below:

 

And now we eagerly await the sequel: “Get Poor Instantly“

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/Lc3tbe Tyler Durden