Tag: news

66 Percent of Americans Say People Should Be Allowed to Play Violent Video Games

The latest
Reason-Rupe poll finds that most Americans do not think
the government should prohibit people from playing violent video
games. While surely Americans
believe different standards should apply to children than
adults, 66 percent of Americans think government should allow
people to play violent video games, while 31 percent say the
government should prohibit this activity.

Support for the freedom to play violent video games is highly
correlated with age. Eighty-two percent of people under age 35 and
70 percent of those ages 35-43 say the government should allow
people to play violent video games while just half, 50 percent, of
Americans ages 55 and over agree.

Unmarried men (83 percent) are considerably more likely than
married men (68 percent) and both married and unmarried women (64
percent) to oppose a government ban on violent video games. In
general, men are more likely to favor allowing violent video games
than women, by a margin of 72 to 61 percent, nevertheless
majorities of both support allowing it.

Income is also correlated with public opinion on violent video
games. For instance, among Americans making less than $30,000 a
year, 46 percent want the government to prohibit Americans from
playing violent video games, compared to 26 percent among those
making more than $30,000 a year. Seventy-one percent of those
making more than $30,000 a year and 52 percent of those making
less, oppose banning video games.

Majorities of political groups favor allowing violent video
games, although some are more supportive than others. Independents
who lean Republican are the most likely to believe violent video
games should be allowed (77 percent) compared to 61 percent of
Democrats. Roughly two-thirds of non-partisan independents and
Democratic-leaning independents oppose a ban as do 70 percent of
Republicans. Nearly eight in 10 self-identified libertarians say
the government should allow this activity while just over half of
progressives feel the same (78 percent to 56 percent).

Asked about their own video game use, 65 percent of respondents
told Reason-Rupe they rarely or never play video games, while 34
percent said they play frequently or occasionally.  Among
those who report playing frequently, 82 percent say government
should allow violent video games, while 17 percent want them
prohibited. In contrast, among those who never play video games 54
percent say they should be allowed and 42 percent say they should
be banned.

Nationwide telephone poll conducted Dec 4-8 2013 interviewed
1011 adults on both mobile (506) and landline (505) phones, with a
margin of error +/- 3.7%. Princeton Survey Research Associates
International executed the nationwide Reason-Rupe survey. Columns
may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Full poll results,
detailed tables, and methodology found here. Sign
up for notifications of new releases of the Reason-Rupe
poll here.

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2013/12/20/66-percent-of-americans-say-people-shou2
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The Illustrated Guide To 4 Years Of Currency Wars

While central bank intervention in the foreign exchange markets is nothing new, the last 4 years have seen unprecedented use of direct and indirect (jawboning) manipulation of exchange rates. As Goldman Sachs notes non-cooperative exchange-rate mechanics (i.e. currency wars) remains the new normal dynamic in world markets; and while some of the moves are generally consistent with cyclical (or structural conditions), efforts by central banks to ‘manage’ developed market rates in a low volatility range may come under further pressure with the Fed “tapering” as emerging market nations face money flow crises.

(click image for large legible version)

 

Chart: Goldman Sachs


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/wCMQDK1Yiyk/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Obama's Defense of NSA Surveillance Doesn't Hold Up

At a press conference this
afternoon, President Obama was asked about the efficacy of the
National Security Agency’s bulk phone records surveillance
programs. Noting that while defending the programs in a recent
court case the government did not specify any instance in which the
program stopped an imminent attack, Mark Felsenthal of Reuters
asked the president if he could cite specific examples of attacks
stopped by the program, and whether Obama believed that the data
collection, in its current form, was “useful to national
security.”

President Obama’s response was revealing,as much for what he
said as for what he didn’t. The president did not cite any instance
in which the bulk phone records collection program, which gathers
information about calls made by hundreds of millions of Americans,
had stopped an imminent attack. The omission suggests there may not
be any such example to cite.

Yet the president defended the surveillance program as vital to
national security anyway. The program, he
said, has “allowed the NSA to be confident in pursuing various
investigations of terrorist threats.”

What’s more, he argued, despite controversy over the program and
related surveillance operations, there have been no allegations of
abuse. “It’s important to note that in all the reviews of this
program that have been done, in fact, there have not been actual
instances where it’s been alleged that the NSA in some ways acted
inappropriately in the use of this data.” Obama vouched for the
program, saying, “I have confidence in the fact that the NSA is not
engaging in domestic surveillance or snooping around.”

That’s just not true. The very nature of the bulk phone metadata
collection program in question is domestic surveillance—a form of
snooping around that inevitably sweeps up data on American
citizens.

There have also been documented instances of abuse. In August,
the NSA confirmed to Bloomberg News that several cases of willful
noncompliance with the agency’s own guidelines had been discovered.

Roughly a dozen instances of improper behavior were
discovered.

Other reports have
found that NSA employees on occasion used agency surveillance
tools to spy on lovers. The agency, along with other intelligence
organizations, also spent millions of dollars studying and spying
on online video game worlds to no productive counterterrorism
result.  In August, Reuters
reported that data created by NSA intercepts justified as
counter-terror measures was in fact being used to facilitate drug
crime investigations by the Drug Enforcement Agency.

A strict focus on these individual reports, however, misses the
larger point, which is that the very existence of the NSA’s bulk
data collection program is itself abusive, regardless of specific
policy infringements. That was the point made by Richard Leon, the
District Judge who earlier this week issued a
ruling suggesting that the program was unconstitutional. But
while Obama suggested that he might be willing to tweak the NSA’s
methods, he does not appear to be willing to rethink the program’s
fundamental surveillance goals. “The question we’re going to have
to ask is can we accomplish the same goals that this program is
intended to accomplish in ways that give the public more confidence
that in fact the NSA is doing what it’s supposed to be doing,” he
said, adding later that “there may be another way of skinning the
cat.” Translation: If he reforms the program, it might feel
slightly different, but it will actually be just the
same. 

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2013/12/20/obamas-defense-of-nsa-surveillance-doesn
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Obama’s Defense of NSA Surveillance Doesn’t Hold Up

At a press conference this
afternoon, President Obama was asked about the efficacy of the
National Security Agency’s bulk phone records surveillance
programs. Noting that while defending the programs in a recent
court case the government did not specify any instance in which the
program stopped an imminent attack, Mark Felsenthal of Reuters
asked the president if he could cite specific examples of attacks
stopped by the program, and whether Obama believed that the data
collection, in its current form, was “useful to national
security.”

President Obama’s response was revealing,as much for what he
said as for what he didn’t. The president did not cite any instance
in which the bulk phone records collection program, which gathers
information about calls made by hundreds of millions of Americans,
had stopped an imminent attack. The omission suggests there may not
be any such example to cite.

Yet the president defended the surveillance program as vital to
national security anyway. The program, he
said, has “allowed the NSA to be confident in pursuing various
investigations of terrorist threats.”

What’s more, he argued, despite controversy over the program and
related surveillance operations, there have been no allegations of
abuse. “It’s important to note that in all the reviews of this
program that have been done, in fact, there have not been actual
instances where it’s been alleged that the NSA in some ways acted
inappropriately in the use of this data.” Obama vouched for the
program, saying, “I have confidence in the fact that the NSA is not
engaging in domestic surveillance or snooping around.”

That’s just not true. The very nature of the bulk phone metadata
collection program in question is domestic surveillance—a form of
snooping around that inevitably sweeps up data on American
citizens.

There have also been documented instances of abuse. In August,
the NSA confirmed to Bloomberg News that several cases of willful
noncompliance with the agency’s own guidelines had been discovered.

Roughly a dozen instances of improper behavior were
discovered.

Other reports have
found that NSA employees on occasion used agency surveillance
tools to spy on lovers. The agency, along with other intelligence
organizations, also spent millions of dollars studying and spying
on online video game worlds to no productive counterterrorism
result.  In August, Reuters
reported that data created by NSA intercepts justified as
counter-terror measures was in fact being used to facilitate drug
crime investigations by the Drug Enforcement Agency.

A strict focus on these individual reports, however, misses the
larger point, which is that the very existence of the NSA’s bulk
data collection program is itself abusive, regardless of specific
policy infringements. That was the point made by Richard Leon, the
District Judge who earlier this week issued a
ruling suggesting that the program was unconstitutional. But
while Obama suggested that he might be willing to tweak the NSA’s
methods, he does not appear to be willing to rethink the program’s
fundamental surveillance goals. “The question we’re going to have
to ask is can we accomplish the same goals that this program is
intended to accomplish in ways that give the public more confidence
that in fact the NSA is doing what it’s supposed to be doing,” he
said, adding later that “there may be another way of skinning the
cat.” Translation: If he reforms the program, it might feel
slightly different, but it will actually be just the
same. 

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2013/12/20/obamas-defense-of-nsa-surveillance-doesn
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Healthcare.gov Plagued by Security Vulnerabilities, More Silk Road Indictments, Island Off Coast of Japan Growing: P.M. Links

  • china and japan not bickering over this one, yetThe Obamacare website
    continues     to be plagued by security vulnerabilities nearly
    three months after its launch.
  • The Department of Homeland Security’s inspector general

    says     his office found no evidence of widespread sexual
    misconduct at the Secret Service.
  • The transit authority in Atlanta has
    installed     urine detectors to alert police when someone is
    micturating in public.
  • Three more people have been
    indicted     in relation to the federal government’s case against
    Silk Road.
  • S&P downgraded
    the European Union’s credit rating to AA+.
  • President Obama formally
    nominated     Senator Max Baucus (D-Mont.) as the next US
    ambassador to China.
  • Prostitutes in the Netherlands
    want     the same retirement tax benefits professional soccer
    players get because theirs is also “hard physical work.”
  • North Korea
    sent     a threatening fax to South Korea in response to anti-Kim
    protests in that country.
  • An island off the coast of Japan created by volcanic activity
    is
    growing     and may survive for several years.

Follow Reason and Reason 24/7 on
Twitter, and like us on Facebook.  You
can also get the top stories mailed to
you—sign
up here. 

Have a news tip? Send it to us!

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2013/12/20/healthcaregov-plagued-by-security-vulner
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5 Things To Ponder This Weekend – The Taper Edition

Submitted by Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management,

This past week the Federal Reserve began tapering their current large scale asset purchase (LSAP) program, more commonly referred to as Quantitative Easing (QE), by trimming $10 billion in bond purchases from the previous monthly totals.  This week's "Things To Ponder" is a diverse set of views on the potential effect of the taper on the financial markets and the impact to investors.  Regardless of your personal expectations as to the impact of the reduction of liquidity in the months ahead, it is always a good mental exercise to consider opposing viewpoints to balance your own views by eliminating confirmation bias.  Here are 5 disparate views on the effect, and potential outcome, of the Federal Reserve's latest move.

1) The Fed Is Just Winging It Now by Jeffrey Snider, Alhambra Partners

I have discussed in the past that the Fed's primary concern are the deflationary pressures that continue to plague the economy.  (See here and here)  Jeffrey did a terrific job discussing this point, and the entire post is well worth your time reading.

"In the wake of finally (FINALLY) reaching the primary taper point, it is worth remembering exactly what QE was supposed to do. QE is the 'extraordinary' policy tool that accompanies ZIRP. That mystical lower bound of 0% rates is believed penetrable by jiggering with inflation expectations. Thus, QE is meant as a means to increase inflation expectations, leading to negative real interest rates – and economic panacea/utopia from there.

 

Instead of that, we still have ZIRP now almost for five full years and inflation behaving very much contrary to modeled and publicized expectations. That is true not only in the CPI, but in nearly every official measure of inflation. That would make this a curious development in the light, again, of what QE was supposed to accomplish."

ABOOK-Dec-2013-CPIPPI-CPIu

2) Fed Taper Begins, What Happen's Next by Mohammed El-Erian

Mohammed points to four reasons why the Fed's actions make sense:

1) Fed is right to be more confident of the economy.

2) Fed's confidence is not overwhelming, just better.

3) Mixed outlook calls for delicate policy balance.

4) Fed still has room to lower the overnight lending rates.

"Investors are right to take all this to mean that the Fed remains highly committed to supporting an improving economy — and, since it seemingly can only do so through 'the asset channel,' the institution thus remains committed to supporting markets.

This is particularly good news for equity markets in the short-term, building on what already has been a great performance year. It also contains the disruptions to bonds."

3) Post-FOMC Strategy by Doug Kass

Doug does a good analysis of the Federal Reserve's QE program.

"1) QE has provided a stock market put and has also prevented the natural discovery of prices in both the stock and bond markets.

 

2) The general belief is that the U.S. stock market will be able to overcome the reduction in bond buying.

 

3) The critical questions are whether the economy can handle higher interest rates and whether stocks can rally in the face of a less liquidity.

 

4) The addiction to low interest rates runs deep with consumers, corporations in the private sector and our government in terms of financing the U.S. deficit, which will weigh on optimistic growth expectations and the consensus view that stocks will rise further.

 

5) The domestic economy is heavily doped up by abnormally low interest rates and monetary accommodation.

 

6) Monetary policy (the Fed) has been needed to support growth in our domestic economy. With that monetary support moderating coupled with the lack of fiscal responsibility and the inability of Democrats and Republicans to come together, more uncertainty than less certainty of policy lies ahead.

This should be valuation-deflating.

 

To a person, the talking heads in the media who provided instant analysis of the Fed's tapering decision were bullish late yesterday afternoon. Not surprisingly, many of the same commentators who were bullish after a 300-point rise in the DJIA had previously cautioned about the market's likely adverse response to a tapering.

 

It is for the reasons listed above (and others) that I shorted yesterday's market rip and moved from a market-neutral stance to a net 10% short position. (I have since shifted back to neutral.)

 

What keeps me from moving more aggressively short is that I have learned to be respectful of the market's unbelievable price momentum, and frankly, I don't know the timing of a downturn/correction with any degree of certainty or precision.

 

That I am certain of is, as The Oracle wrote, it might shortly 'be time to be fearful when others are greedy.'"

4)  5 Reasons Stocks Didn't Suffer A Taper Tantrum by Adam Shell, USA Today 

"The past two times the Fed warned of tapering, the Dow fell — 4.9% back in May and June, and 5.6% in August. The declines were dubbed 'Taper Tantrum 1' and 'Taper Tantrum 2.'

 

So why did stocks go up when most pundits figured they would go down?

 

Here are five theories why the first taper didn't tank the stock market:

 

1. It signals the Fed's faith in the recovery.

2. It reduces uncertainty.

3. It amounts to 'Taper Lite.'

4. It caught Wall Street off guard.

5. It doesn't change the Fed's dovish stance.

< p> 

The takeaway: The Fed will remain highly accommodative for years."

5) The Taper Morning After: A Full Summary Of What "They" Are Saying via Zero Hedge

"Strategists were largely wrong about the yes taper in September, and then they were just as largely wrong about the no taper in December, and yet their opinion is just as largely gospel and people continue to listen to them (what else is there to be distracted by in a still very much centrally-planned market and economy). Which is why the below summary by Bloomberg of what global financial strategists and investors, also known as "they", are saying about how to trade assets in the post-taper world, should probably be taken, largely, with a grain of salt."

Views from PIMCO, BlackRock, HSBC, UBS, Morgan Stanley, SocGen and others.  It's a good read particularly if you have a currency bias in your portfolio.

Chart Of The Week – What Difference Does $10 Billion A Month Make

The chart below shows the Federal Reserve's balance sheet as compared to the S&P 500 with both being projected through the end of 2016.  The dashed lines denote the projected expansion of the balance sheet, and the correlated rise in asset prices, both before and after the Federal Reserve's most recent "taper."

Fed-Balance-Sheet-VS-SP500-122013

Wishing you a very happy holiday season and a merry Christmas.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/-HpbMrXK4XE/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Bonds' Best Day In 8 Months As Stocks Close At Record Highs

Treasury curve flattening continues to gather pace as 30Y bonds rallied their most in 8 months today (even as the shorter-end sold off modestly) but on the week the flattening is dramatic to say the least. Of course, all eyes were on stocks as the Dow and S&P leaked (post European close) to new highs (and the Russell gained back yesterday's losses and some to close the week's winner +3.5%). Gold (and silver) rallied on the day back over $1200 (but closes -3% on the week). VIX followed a similar pattern to yesterday with an early drop followed by a drift higher as it's clear managers are protecting into year-end. Quad witching and rebalancing provided some fireworks into the close as volume rose and stocks slid (as Nanex noted – something broke – lots of micro-crashes/rallies) as CBOE quotes stopped with 10 minutes to go.

 

The late-day chaos perhaps summed up best by Nanex…

 

The long bond surged lower in yields today…

 

and on the week the flattening is very clear…

 

Gold rallied on the day but closed -3% on the week…

 

Stocks were well coupled with JPY crosses until the European close and then decoupled… with the closing dump seemingly attempting to recouple…

 

After yesterday's disappointing performance, the Russell 2000 surged back to take the victory on the week… (even as the Dow and S&P rolled over)…

 

But VIX tracked a similar trajectory today with protection bid all afternoon…

 

Charts: Bloomberg


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/Zpn7tZZx7mk/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Bonds’ Best Day In 8 Months As Stocks Close At Record Highs

Treasury curve flattening continues to gather pace as 30Y bonds rallied their most in 8 months today (even as the shorter-end sold off modestly) but on the week the flattening is dramatic to say the least. Of course, all eyes were on stocks as the Dow and S&P leaked (post European close) to new highs (and the Russell gained back yesterday's losses and some to close the week's winner +3.5%). Gold (and silver) rallied on the day back over $1200 (but closes -3% on the week). VIX followed a similar pattern to yesterday with an early drop followed by a drift higher as it's clear managers are protecting into year-end. Quad witching and rebalancing provided some fireworks into the close as volume rose and stocks slid (as Nanex noted – something broke – lots of micro-crashes/rallies) as CBOE quotes stopped with 10 minutes to go.

 

The late-day chaos perhaps summed up best by Nanex…

 

The long bond surged lower in yields today…

 

and on the week the flattening is very clear…

 

Gold rallied on the day but closed -3% on the week…

 

Stocks were well coupled with JPY crosses until the European close and then decoupled… with the closing dump seemingly attempting to recouple…

 

After yesterday's disappointing performance, the Russell 2000 surged back to take the victory on the week… (even as the Dow and S&P rolled over)…

 

But VIX tracked a similar trajectory today with protection bid all afternoon…

 

Charts: Bloomberg


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/Zpn7tZZx7mk/story01.htm Tyler Durden

What CEOs Are Really Worried About – Discounting And Obamacare

It will likely come as no surprise that, despite a ‘surging’ economy (based on today’s inventory-stacked GDP), that CEOs are less than upbeat about the future when one scratches below the surface of 5-second soundbites. As Bloomberg’s Rich Yamarone notes, from the most recent quarter’s earnings calls, two critical themes emerge as top of mind for CEOs – consumer-related companies remain skittish about the ability of households to spend without a heavily promotional environment and companies cited upcoming healthcare legislation as a hurdle to performance and profitability.

 

Coldwater Creek [CWTR] Earnings Call 12/11/13: “While the third quarter was a challenging period for us, we were able to react quickly to the trends in the business by improving our assortments and refining our marketing plans. We have seen an improvement in our sales trends and conversion rates. However, we are seeing an increasingly competitive and highly promotional environment, traffic remains challenging and the majority of the holiday season lies ahead of us.”

Bebe Stores [BEBE] Earnings Call 11/7/13: “While we are pleased with the progress that we have made in first quarter of 2014, we are facing a few headwinds as we enter second quarter. As it has been widely reported, the macroeconomic environment has been increasingly difficult starting the last week of September and continued into October, which has resulted in some decline in traffic trends as well as creating a highly promotional environment.”

Cosi Inc [COSI] Earnings Call 11/14/13: “The increase in labor and related benefits as a percentage of restaurant net sales was due in large part to the deployment of additional hourly labor in an effort to improve speed of service and guest satisfaction, combined with the deleveraging impact of the comparable store sales decline on the fixed portion of our labor costs. We were also adversely impacted in the quarter by higher employee health insurance costs.”

Flowers Foods [FLO ] Earnings Call 11/7/13: “You look at employ-related costs, we’re seeing increase there. You have healthcare increases. It’s kind of some of the typical things you would expect from an employee perspective.”

Wal-Mart [WMT] Earnings Call 11/14/13: “The retail environment, both in stores and online, remains competitive. At the same time, some customers feel uncertainty about the economy, government, jobs stability and their need to take care of their families through the holidays. Walmart has aggressive plans to help our customers enjoy the holiday season…”


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/M37CU71ZlJ0/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Guest Post: The Case For Owning Farmland (In One Simple Statistic)

Submitted by Simon Black of Sovereign Man blog,

In investing, it’s often said that nothing goes up or down in a straight line.

Stocks, bonds, commodities… they all go through periods of growth, correction, collapse, mania, etc.

We’re seeing this right now with respect to a substantial decline in the nominal gold price after more than 12 straight years of gains.

But I’ve just recently come across an investment trend that has posted the same results for more than 20-years straight. And it’s actually quite alarming.

Every human being on the planet requires sustenance… typically measured in Calories per day.

What’s interesting is that the global average of per-capita Calorie consumption has increased a whopping 24.6% since 1964.

So over the last fifty years, the data clearly show that human beings are eating more… now to an average of roughly 2,940 Calories per person per day.

As you can probably guess, most of the rise has taken place in East Asia just over the last two decades, owing to the increased wealth in that part of the world.

Roughly a billion people have been lifted out of poverty in Asia alone. And as people begin to generate income and accumulate savings, their dietary habits have invariably changed. They eat more, i.e. demand more Calories.

As we eat more, we require more resources from the world. And in the case of food, this means more arable land to grow crops.

But there’s another twist to this trend. As people become wealthier, they not only eat more, but they also begin to consume more resource consumptive foods– especially meat.

It takes a lot more land to grow a kilogram of beef than it does to grow a kilogram of tomatoes. The difference can often be an order of magnitude greater.

So when you look at the demand side of this equation, per capita food consumption is increasing… and we are also consuming a vastly greater amount of land-intensive foods.

In short, the global trend is that we are demanding a much greater amount of arable land per person.

Yet the data on the supply side show the precise opposite.

According to World Bank data, the global average of arable land per person has been on a one-way decline since 1992.

In fact, since 1964, there has only been one year that the global average of arable land per person has increased. In every other instance over the last five decades, arable land per person has declined.

This is an astounding trend.

Our modern ‘science’ is stepping in to address this trend. It’s why much of what we eat is now concocted in a laboratory rather than grown on a farm. It’s why McDonalds puts pink slime in its hamburgers instead of… you know… beef.

But even still, science only goes so far.

Yields for many staple crops (like wheat) essentially hit a wall about ten years ago. After decades of miraculous gains in the amount of tons, bushels, and kilograms per acre we have been able to extract from the Earth, productive capacity has largely plateaued.

In other words, we have maxed out what we can pull out of the soil for now. And the amount of soil per person that’s in production is in serious decline.

To me, this spells out an obvious case for investing in agriculture… and even more specifically, to own farmland.

 


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/ejO4TjqBvMA/story01.htm Tyler Durden