Waiting On the Santa Rally

 

The markets are ramped higher today, with the S&P 500 having bounced of its 50-DMA in the overnight futures session.

 

 

As you can see, this has been THE line since stocks began rallying in early 2013.

 

With that in mind, it seems likely traders will try to affect a Santa rally. If you’re unfamiliar with this term, the “Santa Clause Rally” refers to the fact that the markets tend to rally into the end of the year.

 

December is hands down the single best month for stocks: historically the Dow has rallied in December at least 70% of the time. 

 

Moreover, the biggest push usually occurs in the last ten trading days of the year (this week and next). This is why they call it the Santa Clause rally (it happens around Christmas).

 

So barring any huge negative developments, the markets should rally over the next few weeks based on historical and seasonal patterns.

 

For a FREE Special Report outlining how to profit from bear market crashes and bull market runs, swing by: http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/special-reports.html

 

Best Regards

Phoenix Capital Research 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/q6-QkwexMkk/story01.htm Phoenix Capital Research

US Dollar Risks And The Four Fed Surprises

The Federal Reserve holds its last policy meeting of 2013 in the week ahead. In UBS’ view there are four possible surprises that could affect the markets. From the odds of a taper to adjusting forecasts and from forward-guidance communication to the chances of a cut in the IOER, the FOMC meeting in the week ahead presents upside and downside risks to the dollar in the near term; even if UBS believes the longer-term will see USD strength against both the EUR and JPY.

Via Syed Mansoor Mohi-uddin of UBS,

First, the Federal Open Market Committee may decide to start tapering its $85bn a month of asset purchases. UBS Economics expects policymakers will wait until the January 28-29 FOMC meeting as inflation remains well below the Fed’s 2% target. Until recently the strong consensus view was for the Fed to wait until its March 18-19 meeting. But the prospects for policymakers to move earlier are rising.

At the September 17-18 FOMC meeting officials refrained from tapering, citing weakening economic data, upcoming fiscal risks as the government prepared to shut down in October, and tightening financial conditions. Three months later those hurdles are substantially lower.

US data continues to firm. Payrolls have increased by 204k jobs on average per month over the last four months. November ISM printed at 57.3 its highest level since the spring of 2011. November’s retail sales increased by 0.7%m/m. In addition, September and October’s retail sales were revised higher to 0.1%m/m and 0.6%m/m respectively.

Furthermore, the risk of another government shutdown has receded. Last week the House of Representatives voted for the budget deal agreed between Republican Ryan and Democrat Murray. This is the first bipartisan budget to pass the House in four years. It will only marginally reduce planned spending cuts, and still needs to be passed by the Senate. But more significantly it markedly improves the outlook by reducing fiscal uncertainty for the next two years.

Financial market conditions also appear more benign in the run up to this month’s FOMC meeting. In particular ten year bond yields remain below 3.00%. In contrast, before September’s FOMC meeting, Treasury rates had almost doubled from 1.60% in May to 3.00% in September.

Before the Fed’s latest ‘black-out’ period began, three FOMC members spoke. Richmond Fed President Lacker said he expected tapering to be discussed at this month’s meeting. Dallas Fed President Fisher said the central bank should begin cutting its bond buying at the ‘earliest opportunity’. Both hawks are non-voting members of the FOMC this year, though Fisher will get to vote during 2014. In contrast, St Louis Fed President Bullard, a voting FOMC member in 2013, said tapering should remain depend nt on upcoming data especially as inflation remains well below the Fed’s 2% target. But Bullard also said ‘a small taper might recognize labour market improvement while still providing the [FOMC] the opportunity to carefully monitor inflation during the first half of 2014.’

If the Fed does announce in the week ahead that it will start tapering its asset purchases – and makes no other policy changes – we expect the dollar will benefit. The FOMC holds eight meetings a year. If tapering is agreed this month, the Fed could potentially finish printing money well before the end of 2014. In his November 20 speech to the Economists Club in Washington DC, Chairman Bernanke made it clear policymakers are more comfortable exercising control over the Fed funds target interest rate than through ‘Large-Scale Asset Purchases’.

Second, the FOMC will release updated economic forecasts at its upcoming meeting. Every March, June, September and December, each FOMC participant produces new ‘Economic Projections’ for GDP growth, unemployment and the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, changes in Personal Consumption Expenditure prices. At the September FOMC meeting, the ‘central tendency’ forecasts that exclude the three highest and three lowest estimates showed policymakers projecting GDP growth to rise from 2.0-2.3% in 2013 to 2.9-3.1% in 2014 and 3.0-3.5% in 2015. The strong pickup in activity in the next two years is partly based on this year’s sharp ‘sequestration’ spending cuts not being repeated. At the June FOMC meeting, however, officials were even more optimistic on growth in 2014, expecting the economy to expand by 3.0-3.5% next year. If policymakers decide to revise up their projections for GDP growth in 2014 at this month’s FOMC meeting – following stronger US releases during Q4’13 – it would suggest officials may be willing to cut asset purchases at a faster pace next year and thus end the Fed’s current round of quantitative easing earlier.

The speed of tapering will also depend on how the Fed sees unemployment and inflation. At the September FOMC meeting, policymakers’ central tendency forecasts for America’s jobless rate was 7.1-7.3% at the end of 2013, 6.4-6.8% in 2014, 5.9-6.2% in 2015, 5.4-5.9% in 2016 and 5.2-5.8% in the ‘longer run’. November’s jobs report shows the unemployment rate has already fallen faster than anticipated to 7.0%. The FOMC may revise its forecasts lower for unemployment as a result.

Stronger GDP and lower unemployment projections would – by itself – support the dollar. But FOMC officials may also show more concern about the low levels of inflation in the US economy. The Fed targets core PCE inflation to reach 2%. At the September FOMC meeting, the central tendency forecasts here were 1.2-1.3% by the end of 2013, 1.5-1.7% in 2014, 1.7-2.0% in 2015 and 1.9-2.0% in 2016. In October, however, core PCE inflation only rose 1.1%y/y. FOMC participants may downgrade their near term forecasts as a result. That may temper the Fed’s willingness to slow down asset purchases.

Third, the FOMC may decide to lengthen its forward guidance on future rate hikes. That may weaken the dollar. Currently, the Fed has committed to keeping the Fed funds target rate unchanged near zero unless the FOMC forecasts core PCE inflation will breach its 2.0% target and hit 2.5%y/y or if unemployment falls to ‘at least’ 6.5%. FOMC members are not projecting core PCE inflation to reach 2.0% until 2015 at the earliest. But unemployment on current trends may hit 6.5% in the next few months.

Fed doves including Bernanke, Vice Chair Yellen and New York Fed President Dudley are worried that the jobless rate is falling faster than expected because participation rates have fallen to 35 year lows. Thus, the unemployment rate is over-stating the health of the labour market and does not warrant the Fed to start raising interest rates in the near term. In his November 20 speech, Bernanke said the central bank could agree to keep interest rates unchanged even if the jobless rate fell well below the Fed’s current 6.5% threshold. Nevertheless, if FOMC officials want to make it clearer that the Fed funds target rate will not be raised for some time after the central bank finishes quantitative easing in 2014, policymakers may decide to lower the 6.5% unemployment threshold for future rate hikes.

If the FOMC agrees to reduce the threshold to 6.0% then it would signal the Fed is likely to still start raising interest rates before the end of 2015. That’s because the FOMC currently forecasts the US jobless rate will be 5.9-6.2% by the end of that year. A move from 6.5% to 6.0% would largely be in line with futures markets expecting the first Fed hikes in late 2015. The impact on the dollar would thus be modest. But if the FOMC was to cut the threshold from 6.5% to 5.5% then the impact on the dollar would be more adverse. Currently, the FOMC projects unemployment will be 5.4-5.9% at the end of 2
016. Thus the Fed would be signaling that it could potentially see interest rates on hold for another three years.

Fourth, the Fed may surprise by deciding to cut interest on excess reserves (IOER) if FOMC members want to signal more clearly the Fed funds target rate will not be quickly raised once tapering starts. Currently, commercial banks hold around $2.5trn of excess reserves at the Fed and the central bank pays 0.25% interest. The October 29-30 FOMC meeting minutes said ‘most participants thought that a reduction by the Board of Governors in the interest rate paid on excess reserves could be worth considering at some stage’. Former Fed Vice Chair Blinder argued in a Wall Street Journal Article that the inclusion in the FOMC meeting minutes was significant as participants had generally been opposed to such a move. If the Fed does go ahead and cut its IOER rate to zero, the dollar would likely weaken at the surprise decision.

In short, the FOMC meeting in the week ahead presents upside and downside risks to the dollar in the near term. In the longer-term, however, the greenback’s direction is likely to be clearer as the strengthening US economy induces the Fed to reduce its asset purchases and enable the dollar to rise to 1.25 against the euro and 110 against the yen as quantitative easing finishes next year.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/y4rjXGjPwHE/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Camden, New Jersey: One Of Hundreds Of U.S. Cities That Are Turning Into Rotting, Decaying Hellholes

Submitted by Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog,

All over America, formerly prosperous communities are being transformed into crime-infested wastelands of poverty and despair.  Of course the most famous example of this is Detroit.  At one time, Detroit was the greatest manufacturing city that the world had ever seen and it had the highest per capita income in the entire country.  But now it has become a rotting, decaying hellhole that the rest of the planet laughs at.  And of course Detroit is far from alone.  There are hundreds of other U.S. cities that are suffering a similar fate.  In this article, the focus is going to be on Camden, New Jersey, but the truth is that there are lots of other "Detroits" and "Camdens" all over the nation.  Jobs and businesses are leaving our cities at a staggering rate, and what is being left behind is poverty, crime and extreme desperation.

Earlier this month, Rolling Stone published an article that took a hard look at the nightmare conditions that exist in Camden.  A city that once made Campbell's soup and some of this nation's most famous warships is now a national disgrace.  The following are six of the best quotes out of that article…

-"In September, its last supermarket closed, and the city has been declared a "food desert" by the USDA. The place is literally dying, its population having plummeted from above 120,000 in the Fifties to less than 80,000 today."

 

-"Their home is a city with thousands of abandoned houses but no money to demolish them, leaving whole blocks full of Ninth Ward-style wreckage to gather waste and rats."

 

-"With legal business mostly gone, illegal business took hold. Those hundreds of industries have been replaced by about 175 open-air drug markets, through which some quarter of a billion dollars in dope moves every year."

 

-"On January 18th, 2011, the city laid off 168 of its 368 police officers, kicking off a dramatic, years-long, cops-versus-locals, house-to-house battle over a few square miles of North American territory that should have been national news, but has not been, likely because it took place in an isolated black and Hispanic ghost town."

 

-"After the 2011 layoffs, police went into almost total retreat. Drug dealers cheerfully gave interviews to local reporters while slinging in broad daylight."

 

-"The carnage left Camden's crime rate on par with places like Haiti after its 2010 earthquake, and with other infamous Third World hot spots, as police officials later noticed to their dismay when they studied U.N. statistics."

You can read the rest of the article right here.  But as bad as things have become in Camden, this should not be a surprise to most of you.  The reality is that this kind of rot and decay is happening in communities all over the United States.

Over in Detroit, crime has gotten so bad that even the police are telling people to "enter Detroit at your own risk".  When you call the police in Detroit it takes them an average of 58 minutes to respond, and more than 90 percent of the crimes committed in the city end up as unsolved mysteries.

At this point, 60 percent of all children in Detroit are living in poverty, and there are approximately 78,000 abandoned homes in the city.

For much more on all this, check out the statistics in this article, and you can find some great photos of the "ruins of Detroit" right here.

So why is all of this happening?

Well, there are lots of factors involved of course, but the biggest one is the lack of good jobs in these cities.

At one time, Detroit had the largest and most prosperous middle class in the entire nation.  But now those days are long gone.

And what is happening to Detroit is precisely what is happening to America as a whole.  Our good jobs are disappearing and the middle class is being systematically destroyed.

In order to have a middle class, you have got to have middle class jobs.

There is no way around that.

And right now, hordes of young people are graduating from college and discovering that the middle class jobs that they were promised simply are not there.

CNN recently profiled a 37-year-old college graduate named Bobby Bingham.  Because he cannot find a good job, he is forced to work four low paying jobs…

Bobby Bingham works four jobs in Kansas City, Missouri, yet he has very little to show for it.

Bingham is 37 years old and has a college degree, but like many Americans, is stuck working many hours in low wage, part-time jobs.

Each week, he works a total of about 60 hours in his jobs as a massage therapist, a waiter at a Mexican restaurant, a delivery man for sandwich chain Jimmy John's and a receptionist at his massage school.

Bingham makes approximately $400 a week, which works out to about $20,000 a year.  He has come to the conclusion that he may never be able to make enough to support a family…

"I've come to the point in my life where I wonder if I can ever support a family," he said. "I have no idea how that's ever going to logically happen."

That deeply saddened my heart when I read
that.  Here is a young man that wants to get married, have a family and do all the right things, but the economy is so bad that he fears that this may never be possible for him.

As I have written about previously, the economic downturn that we are experiencing right now has hit men particularly hard.  The number of men in their prime working years that do not make enough money to support a family is rising with each passing year, and this is causing massive problems in this country.

And when our politicians proclaim that all we need is "more education", I feel like vomiting.  The U.S. population as a whole has more "education" today than it ever has had before.

If you think that "more education" is the answer, then check out the following excerpt from a recent interview with a law school graduate that is making about $40,000 a year and that has about $200,000 in law school debt…

Yes, it's extremely hard to get by. I can't afford rent or a car and can barely afford food. Anything extra like enjoying myself with friends, going to a movie, traveling, etc. — that's all out the window for the foreseeable future and possibly for the rest of my life thanks to law school. I live with my parents. I don't have a car. I don't go out to socialize. I don't date. I don't buy new clothes. I don't buy electronics. I don't buy much of anything. I spend my free time working other jobs to put more money toward my debt. I do contract work for other lawyers, but the pay is very low and payment is sporadic.

Why did this happen to him?  Well, the truth is that there are way, way too many law school graduates.  There are not nearly enough good jobs for all of them.  In fact, this particular law school graduate deeply regrets ever going to law school and considers it "an extraordinary waste of money"…

I consider law school a waste of my life and an extraordinary waste of money. I feel like I was duped and tricked. At the end of the day, it's my own fault for being a sucker and I learned an extremely hard lesson. Because I went to law school, I don't see myself having a family, earning a comfortable wage, or having an enjoyable lifestyle.

But at least he has a job.  There are millions of college graduates that do not.  And there are hundreds of thousands of other college graduates that are currently working as waiters and waitresses.  Large numbers are also working temp jobs or standing behind registers in retail stores.

Over the past decade, tens of thousands of businesses and millions of good jobs have left this country.  The quality of the jobs that remain continues to decline at a frightening pace, and most of the new jobs that are being "created" these days are part-time jobs.

But you won't hear the mainstream media or our most prominent politicians talk about these things much.  You won't hear them talk about the fact that median household income in the United States has fallen for five years in a row or about the fact that the rate of homeownership in the United States has fallen for eight years in a row.

The middle class is dying.

Wake up America.

And even as millions of our jobs have been shipped to the other side of the planet, some of the most prominent "American companies" have been bought up by foreigners.  The following list comes from a recent Economy In Crisis article

—–

Here are some of America’s most famous brands currently held in foreign hands:

  • Budweiser, now owned by Anheuser-Busch InBev N.V., which is based in Leuven, Belgium
  • Alka-Seltzer, now owned by German company Bayer Schering Pharma AG
  • Ben & Jerrys, now owned by British-Dutch Unilever
  • AMC theaters, now owned by the Chinese
  • 7-Eleven, now owned by the Japanese company, Seven & I Holdings
  • Woman’s Day Magazine, now owned by the French company,  Hachette Filipacchi Médias, S.A
  • Purina, now owned by the Swiss company, Nestle
  • Gerber, now owned by the Swiss pharmaceutical giant, Novartis
  • Firestone, now owned by the Japanese Bridgestone Corporation
  • Citgo, now owned by the government of Venezuela
  • French’s Mustard, now owned by Reckitt Benckiser, a British conglomerate
  • Frigidaire, now owned by Sweden’s AB Electrolux
  • The Plaza Hotel in New York City, now owned by Israeli billionaire Yitzhak Tshuva’s El-Ad Group
  • Trader Joes, now owned by German billionaires Karl and Theo Albrecht
  • Dial soap, now owned by Henkel KGaA, based in Dusseldorf, Germany
  • Sunglass Hut, now owned by Italian eyewear seller Luxottica Group

—–

Are you starting to get the picture?

Our economic infrastructure is being absolutely gutted and more than 46 million Americans are now living in poverty.

And if you are waiting for the jokers in Washington D.C. to fix things, you are going to be waiting for a very, very long time.

Over the past several years, both the Democrats and the Republicans have proven again and again that they are basically completely and totally useless.  In fact, just about everything that they try to do actually makes our problems even worse.

In just a few days, Barack Obama leaves for a 17 day holiday vacation in Hawaii.  Many have criticized him and the members of Congress for taking so much time off, but perhaps that is the best thing that they can do at this point.  As long as they are away from Washington D.C., at least they won't be making things even worse for all the rest of us.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/NmtKS5OFXeo/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Why Obama's Home Affordable Modification Program Failed (Spoiler Alert: Thank Bank Of America et al)

Back when the Executive and Congress at least pretended not to abdicate all power to the Fed, one of the centerpiece programs designed to boost the housing market for the benefit of the poor (as opposed to letting Ben Bernanke make marginal US housing a rental industry owned by a handful of private equity firms and hedge funds), was Barack Obama’s Home Affordable Modification Program (or HAMP), which attempted to prevent foreclosures by lowering distressed borrowers’ mortgage payments. Under the program, homeowners would be given trial modifications to prove they can make reduced payments before the changes become permanent. The program was a disaster as of the 3 million foreclosures that were targeted for modification in 2009, only 905,663 mods have been successful nearly five years later – a tiny 13% of the 6.9 million who applied (still, numbers which Obamacare would be delighted to achieve). Part of the reason: the program’s reliance on the same industry that sold shoddy mortgages during the housing bubble and improperly sped foreclosures afterward. But there was much more. For the definitive explanation of everything else that went wrong, we go to Bloomberg’s Hugh Son whose masterpiece released today explains how and why once again the banks – and especially one of them – won, and everyone else lost.

The story begins at Bank of America where instead of helping homeowners as promised under agreements with the U.S. Treasury Department, the bailed out bank stalled them with repeated requests for paperwork and incorrect income calculations, according to nine former Urban Lending employees. Urban Lending was one of the vendors brought in to handle grievances from
lawmakers and regulators on behalf of borrowers, also operated a
mail-processing center for HAMP documents. Some borrowers were sent into foreclosure or pricier loan modifications padded with fees resulting from the delays, according to the people, all but two of whom asked to remain anonymous because they signed confidentiality agreements. Curiously, Bank of America authorized Urban Lending to refer to itself as the Office of the CEO and President in letters and telephone conversations to “provide a seamless experience for homeowners who complained directly to Moynihan” in a way that would represent Urban and other vendors like Urban is as an extension of Bank of America.

Son chronicles the accounts of former employees of the BofA (non-) division who help explain why Obama’s plan fell far short of the 3 million averted foreclosures targeted in 2009.

The story continues, once again, at Bank of America:

Bank of America stands out in a program that lawmakers and former Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair have called a failure, leaving many homeowners worse off. The second-largest U.S. lender canceled more trial modifications than any mortgage firm and sent the highest percentage of rejected customers into foreclosure, Treasury data show.

 

To help run its modification program, Bank of America relied on managers who had worked at Countrywide Financial Corp., the subprime lender it took over in 2008. Those executives created and enforced quotas for resolving complaints, according to the former employees. Among them was Rebecca Mairone, found liable by a federal jury in October for defrauding government-backed housing companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac while working at Countrywide.

 

Urban Lending staff, struggling to meet those quotas, resorted to falsifying records and improperly purging complaints, the people said. They sent letters containing inaccurate statements on Office of the CEO and President stationery to lawmakers and U.S. agency officials who sought assistance on behalf of borrowers, the former employees said.

Next, we learn some more about how Bank of America took its foreclosure modification duties seriously:

Tens of thousands of HAMP modifications were improperly denied by Bank of America and Urban Lending since April 2009, according to a July complaint filed by homeowners against the two companies in federal court in Colorado.

 

Everyone knew that we weren’t helping people,” said Erik Schnackenberg, a customer-service manager who left Urban Lending in 2011 and now runs a yoga studio in Longmont, Colorado. “They were giving us all the pressure and none of the power to change anything. It was this absurd, self-contained ecosystem of worthlessness.”

 

Schnackenberg and other former employees, who spent from four months to three years at Urban Lending as customer-service representatives and auditors, said they spoke when contacted by Bloomberg News because they’re distressed by what they saw.

To be sure, the relationship was quite lucrative for Urban Lending…

Revenue at Urban Lending surged to $183.5 million last year from $8 million in 2007, making it one of the country’s fastest-growing minority-owned businesses, according to Black Enterprise magazine. Sanders, whose other holdings include the Pittsburgh restaurant Savoy and a stake in energy-drink maker Fever, declined to comment for this article.

 

Urban Lending expanded in Colorado after winning the Bank of America contract, moving into a five-story brick building in Broomfield with views of the Rocky Mountains. The firm also had a warehouse in Broomfield for processing documents from tens of thousands of HAMP applications.

 

There, unopened mail was stacked to the ceiling, said three people who spent time at the warehouse. Time-sensitive documents such as pay stubs grew stale, and paperwork was scanned into computer systems late or partially, triggering loan-modification rejections, the people said.

… if only the outfit took its tasks as seriously as it deposited the Bank of America checks. It turns out the only work that was taken seriously was how to find shortcuts to doing any actual work:

At the office in Broomfield, Urban Lending employees examined every letter from lawmakers to determine which were computer-generated and which were signed by a human, according to four former employees. The handwritten ones got special attention and were called wet signatures, they said. The others were referred to as dry.

 

The signatures of some U.S. senators, including Democrats Harry Reid of Nevada, Carl Levin of Michigan and Charles Schumer of New York, were enlarged to two to three feet and tacked on the walls of a quality-control room to help employees identify wet signatures, the people said.

It was only downhill from there:

The most common tactic used to stall and reject homeowners was to claim they hadn’t submitted paperwork, according to all nine former employees. Urban Lending requested new applications and supporting documents including pay stubs every 30 to 60 days, even if the customer had sent them, the people said.

 

“People went through years of sending documents in,” said Daniel Ellersdorfer, 37, a customer advocate who left Urban Lending after 13 months in September 2012 and is now a s
cuba-diving instructor. “There were people who did everything right and they would still get screwed over and have to start the modification process all over.”

What was the motivation to delay the process? Simple: fees, and natural attrition that would ultimately make the applicants unacceptable for modification:

Borrowers whose modifications were delayed for a year or longer accumulated thousands of dollars in fees and interest and were disqualified for HAMP because their debt-to-income ratios worsened over time, four former Urban Lending employees said. Foreclosure or modifications under the bank’s own program, typically with higher interest rates, often became the only options, the people said.

 

Bank of America said it had given 891,100 of its own modifications as of October, more than three times as many as provided under HAMP. That’s because most of the bank’s customers didn’t qualify for the government plan, Sturzenegger said. The bank gave legal assignments, title searches and appraisals to its own subsidiaries, including Recontrust and LandSafe. Fees charged to homeowners ranged from about $45 a month to inspect the outsides of homes to about $850 for legal filings, according to three former Urban Lending employees.

Sure enough, if it was Bank of America’s intent to accumulate the largest possible inventory of houses in foreclosure it did so admirably, with a trial foreclosure rate under HAMP of 33%: double the industry average, and the highest of the big bank participants.

Bank of America, which inherited hundreds of thousands of overdue borrowers from Countrywide, sent 33 percent of canceled HAMP trials into foreclosure through the end of July, the highest percentage of any of the biggest servicers, Treasury data show. The figure was 27 percent for Wells Fargo & Co. and 20 percent for both JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. The industry average was 22 percent.

 

 

“While the country as a whole has made significant progress, there is still room for improvement for servicers, and the Treasury is committed to applying pressure on the mortgage-servicing industry to improve servicer behavior,” Treasury Deputy Assistant Secretary Tim Bowler said in an e-mail.

The fact that Urban Lending was staffed with grotesquely underqualified workers certainly helped the end-goal of sequestering as much property as possible into shadow inventory, and thus taking it off the market (why: read all about Foreclosure Stuffing here).

The reality of working at Urban Lending contrasted with the training they received, six of the people said. Recruits were told during six-week introductory sessions that they were being paid $16 to $18 an hour to help Americans keep their homes.

Once they started, employees learned that Bank of America quotas applied to everyone from customer advocates to auditors and quality-control staff, the people said. They worked 15-hour days and on weekends with the knowledge they could be fired if they couldn’t meet targets. Properly resolving complaints was often impossible because Urban Lending employees couldn’t access needed files among a dozen software programs and relied on Bank of America personnel who often ignored requests, they said.

“Smart people would leave right away,” said Schnackenberg, the former Urban Lending manager. “You were left with people trying to take care of complex, aged files who were formerly assistant manager of a Taco Bell. It was a recipe for failure for homeowners.”

Under pressure from bank managers to close cases, Urban Lending workers resorted to shortcuts, six people said. That included forging power-of-attorney letters or removing notations that a customer hired a lawyer, making it easier to close files.

Managers purged complaints after business hours, circumventing an internal review process set up by Accenture Plc, according to two of the people. Employees falsified records to show late-night conversations with borrowers that didn’t happen, the people said.

In retrospect, with such rampant, unsupervised (or perhaps premeditated) criminality going on, one can see why the big banks were (and are) so eager to pay up any settlement proposal they get from Eric Holder, as long as nobody ends up in jail, and guilt is neither admitted nor denied of course.

But the biggest irony is perhaps that Bank of America used none other than the very same employees who originally were peddling the mortgages to consumers at Countrywide (purchased by Bank of America in the worst M&A deal of all time), to facilitate the HAMP “goals”:

Bank of America used ex-Countrywide managers to push Urban Lending to meet its goals, according to the former employees. One of them was Mairone, the only individual named in the government’s first mortgage lawsuit from the financial crisis to reach trial.

 

Mairone was part of the Countrywide team that set up a program known as the Hustle, which removed quality-control steps for mortgages sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, costing the U.S.-backed firms $863.6 million, according to a Nov. 8 filing by prosecutors in federal court in New York.

 

She helped create Bank of America’s HAMP policies as the firm’s lead default-servicing executive, according to the July lawsuit.

Where is Mairone now? “Mairone joined JPMorgan in 2012 and now oversees vendors for that bank, according to a New York Times article.” It really doesn’t get any more hilarious than this…

Not stupid, Bank of America of course realized that one day an article such as this one would come out, so it took preventative steps:

Urban Lending employees were told by trainers that they should never admit fault on the bank’s behalf in writing or over the phone, four former workers said. They were warned that e-mails could be subpoenaed, the people said.

 

To soothe homeowners frustrated by delays, employees had a monthly allotment of $25 and $50 gift cards they could give customers, said three of the former workers. The joke among staff: It was just enough money to buy moving boxes.

 

Urban Lending employees said they were told by their managers that the orders to reduce homeowners’ complaints came directly from Moynihan and Bank of America board members, who checked caseload figures daily. One such push was called the “Drive to Five,” a plan in late 2010 to lower complaints to 5,000 from more than 15,000.

None other than BofA CEO Brian Moynihan has spoken of the bank’s perverse conflicts of interest in this matter: “He told an Atlanta Rotary Club prayer breakfast in October 2011 that foreclosing is “always the option of last resort,” according to prepared remarks. “Foreclosure is not only the worst outcome for a customer, it’s also the worst financial outcome for the servicer and the owner of the mortgage,” he said. “The best decisions are the ones that go beyond our own narro
w self-interest.”

This, of course, is a lie: recall that the explicit subsidy that is stuffing bank balance sheets to the gills with “shadow inventory” achieved its mission perfectly: removing millions of housing units in supply from the market, and in the process creating an artificial subsidy as demand had to chase artificially reduced supply, thus pushing home prices higher, and in the process making home ownership far less affordable for everyone else, especially those Americans who not only dutifully pay their taxes, but have a steady job and are willing to pay the monthly mortgage fee. It is they who were and are most impacted by Bank of America’s actions. As for the bank, now that prices are artificially higher by 10%, 20% or more percent, watch as slowly but surely the BofA, JPMs and Wells proceed to release ever more housing inventory from their balance sheets, but from a far higher equilibrium price, thus affording them a few quarters of selling into what is still a sellers market, if not for much longer.

But perhaps the best way to visualize how HAMP failed, is through a case study:

Jose De Santiago, a municipal inspector in Mission Viejo, California, was in the midst of a modification in December 2011 when he got the letter: He had five days to leave his two-bedroom condo. De Santiago, 43, spent Christmas packing his belongings with his son Joseph, then 13, and was out the next day.

 

After a Bloomberg News reporter alerted the lender’s communications department, Bank of America bought the condo from Alton Holdings Inc., which had purchased it in a foreclosure auction. A bank lawyer apologized, and De Santiago was allowed to move back after two weeks.

 

Bank of America offered $5,000 to compensate him for furniture lost in the eviction, according to a draft of a proposed settlement. De Santiago refused because he would have had to sign a liability release, he said. He’s still fighting the lender to get it to repair his credit scores.

 

“They asked me to put in writing how well they treated me,” De Santiago said. “I can’t believe Bank of America was allowed to do the horrible things it did to me and others.” Bank of America’s Sturzenegger said some customers who should have received government assistance may have fallen through the cracks of the system the lender created.

 

“If you went back and re-reviewed the documents, based on today, would they have qualified for HAMP?” Sturzenegger said. “Possibly. That’s the best way to answer it.”

And with Bank of America doing all of the above, one can be certain that every other bank was doing the same.

As for the endgame: “The CEO, dogged by investors’ questions about mortgage costs since taking over in 2010, is dismantling the division that handles delinquent borrowers. The unit had 6,200 contractors as of June, down from its peak of 16,900 last year.”

Since the grotesquely criminal behavior described above likely only touches the surface of what went on at Bank of America et al, one can see why, and one wonders: just what else will be revealed when the centrally-planned experiment to prevent the grand reset finally fails and the Fed’s liquidity tide finally goes out. Whatever it is, we can fast forward to the conclusion and inform American taxpayers that the biggest losers will, once again, be you.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/DTTTooEZoPM/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Why Obama’s Home Affordable Modification Program Failed (Spoiler Alert: Thank Bank Of America et al)

Back when the Executive and Congress at least pretended not to abdicate all power to the Fed, one of the centerpiece programs designed to boost the housing market for the benefit of the poor (as opposed to letting Ben Bernanke make marginal US housing a rental industry owned by a handful of private equity firms and hedge funds), was Barack Obama’s Home Affordable Modification Program (or HAMP), which attempted to prevent foreclosures by lowering distressed borrowers’ mortgage payments. Under the program, homeowners would be given trial modifications to prove they can make reduced payments before the changes become permanent. The program was a disaster as of the 3 million foreclosures that were targeted for modification in 2009, only 905,663 mods have been successful nearly five years later – a tiny 13% of the 6.9 million who applied (still, numbers which Obamacare would be delighted to achieve). Part of the reason: the program’s reliance on the same industry that sold shoddy mortgages during the housing bubble and improperly sped foreclosures afterward. But there was much more. For the definitive explanation of everything else that went wrong, we go to Bloomberg’s Hugh Son whose masterpiece released today explains how and why once again the banks – and especially one of them – won, and everyone else lost.

The story begins at Bank of America where instead of helping homeowners as promised under agreements with the U.S. Treasury Department, the bailed out bank stalled them with repeated requests for paperwork and incorrect income calculations, according to nine former Urban Lending employees. Urban Lending was one of the vendors brought in to handle grievances from
lawmakers and regulators on behalf of borrowers, also operated a
mail-processing center for HAMP documents. Some borrowers were sent into foreclosure or pricier loan modifications padded with fees resulting from the delays, according to the people, all but two of whom asked to remain anonymous because they signed confidentiality agreements. Curiously, Bank of America authorized Urban Lending to refer to itself as the Office of the CEO and President in letters and telephone conversations to “provide a seamless experience for homeowners who complained directly to Moynihan” in a way that would represent Urban and other vendors like Urban is as an extension of Bank of America.

Son chronicles the accounts of former employees of the BofA (non-) division who help explain why Obama’s plan fell far short of the 3 million averted foreclosures targeted in 2009.

The story continues, once again, at Bank of America:

Bank of America stands out in a program that lawmakers and former Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair have called a failure, leaving many homeowners worse off. The second-largest U.S. lender canceled more trial modifications than any mortgage firm and sent the highest percentage of rejected customers into foreclosure, Treasury data show.

 

To help run its modification program, Bank of America relied on managers who had worked at Countrywide Financial Corp., the subprime lender it took over in 2008. Those executives created and enforced quotas for resolving complaints, according to the former employees. Among them was Rebecca Mairone, found liable by a federal jury in October for defrauding government-backed housing companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac while working at Countrywide.

 

Urban Lending staff, struggling to meet those quotas, resorted to falsifying records and improperly purging complaints, the people said. They sent letters containing inaccurate statements on Office of the CEO and President stationery to lawmakers and U.S. agency officials who sought assistance on behalf of borrowers, the former employees said.

Next, we learn some more about how Bank of America took its foreclosure modification duties seriously:

Tens of thousands of HAMP modifications were improperly denied by Bank of America and Urban Lending since April 2009, according to a July complaint filed by homeowners against the two companies in federal court in Colorado.

 

Everyone knew that we weren’t helping people,” said Erik Schnackenberg, a customer-service manager who left Urban Lending in 2011 and now runs a yoga studio in Longmont, Colorado. “They were giving us all the pressure and none of the power to change anything. It was this absurd, self-contained ecosystem of worthlessness.”

 

Schnackenberg and other former employees, who spent from four months to three years at Urban Lending as customer-service representatives and auditors, said they spoke when contacted by Bloomberg News because they’re distressed by what they saw.

To be sure, the relationship was quite lucrative for Urban Lending…

Revenue at Urban Lending surged to $183.5 million last year from $8 million in 2007, making it one of the country’s fastest-growing minority-owned businesses, according to Black Enterprise magazine. Sanders, whose other holdings include the Pittsburgh restaurant Savoy and a stake in energy-drink maker Fever, declined to comment for this article.

 

Urban Lending expanded in Colorado after winning the Bank of America contract, moving into a five-story brick building in Broomfield with views of the Rocky Mountains. The firm also had a warehouse in Broomfield for processing documents from tens of thousands of HAMP applications.

 

There, unopened mail was stacked to the ceiling, said three people who spent time at the warehouse. Time-sensitive documents such as pay stubs grew stale, and paperwork was scanned into computer systems late or partially, triggering loan-modification rejections, the people said.

… if only the outfit took its tasks as seriously as it deposited the Bank of America checks. It turns out the only work that was taken seriously was how to find shortcuts to doing any actual work:

At the office in Broomfield, Urban Lending employees examined every letter from lawmakers to determine which were computer-generated and which were signed by a human, according to four former employees. The handwritten ones got special attention and were called wet signatures, they said. The others were referred to as dry.

 

The signatures of some U.S. senators, including Democrats Harry Reid of Nevada, Carl Levin of Michigan and Charles Schumer of New York, were enlarged to two to three feet and tacked on the walls of a quality-control room to help employees identify wet signatures, the people said.

It was only downhill from there:

The most common tactic used to stall and reject homeowners was to claim they hadn’t submitted paperwork, according to all nine former employees. Urban Lending requested new applications and supporting documents including pay stubs every 30 to 60 days, even if the customer had sent them, the people said.

 

“People went through years of sending documents in,” said Daniel Ellersdorfer, 37, a customer advocate who left Urban Lending after 13 months in September 2012 and is now a scuba-diving instructor. “There were people who did everything right and they would still get screwed over and have to start the modification process all over.”

What was the motivation to delay the process? Simple: fees, and natural attrition that would ultimately make the applicants unacceptable for modification:

Borrowers whose modifications were delayed for a year or longer accumulated thousands of dollars in fees and interest and were disqualified for HAMP because their debt-to-income ratios worsened over time, four former Urban Lending employees said. Foreclosure or modifications under the bank’s own program, typically with higher interest rates, often became the only options, the people said.

 

Bank of America said it had given 891,100 of its own modifications as of October, more than three times as many as provided under HAMP. That’s because most of the bank’s customers didn’t qualify for the government plan, Sturzenegger said. The bank gave legal assignments, title searches and appraisals to its own subsidiaries, including Recontrust and LandSafe. Fees charged to homeowners ranged from about $45 a month to inspect the outsides of homes to about $850 for legal filings, according to three former Urban Lending employees.

Sure enough, if it was Bank of America’s intent to accumulate the largest possible inventory of houses in foreclosure it did so admirably, with a trial foreclosure rate under HAMP of 33%: double the industry average, and the highest of the big bank participants.

Bank of America, which inherited hundreds of thousands of overdue borrowers from Countrywide, sent 33 percent of canceled HAMP trials into foreclosure through the end of July, the highest percentage of any of the biggest servicers, Treasury data show. The figure was 27 percent for Wells Fargo & Co. and 20 percent for both JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. The industry average was 22 percent.

 

 

“While the country as a whole has made significant progress, there is still room for improvement for servicers, and the Treasury is committed to applying pressure on the mortgage-servicing industry to improve servicer behavior,” Treasury Deputy Assistant Secretary Tim Bowler said in an e-mail.

The fact that Urban Lending was staffed with grotesquely underqualified workers certainly helped the end-goal of sequestering as much property as possible into shadow inventory, and thus taking it off the market (why: read all about Foreclosure Stuffing here).

The reality of working at Urban Lending contrasted with the training they received, six of the people said. Recruits were told during six-week introductory sessions that they were being paid $16 to $18 an hour to help Americans keep their homes.

Once they started, employees learned that Bank of America quotas applied to everyone from customer advocates to auditors and quality-control staff, the people said. They worked 15-hour days and on weekends with the knowledge they could be fired if they couldn’t meet targets. Properly resolving complaints was often impossible because Urban Lending employees couldn’t access needed files among a dozen software programs and relied on Bank of America personnel who often ignored requests, they said.

“Smart people would leave right away,” said Schnackenberg, the former Urban Lending manager. “You were left with people trying to take care of complex, aged files who were formerly assistant manager of a Taco Bell. It was a recipe for failure for homeowners.”

Under pressure from bank managers to close cases, Urban Lending workers resorted to shortcuts, six people said. That included forging power-of-attorney letters or removing notations that a customer hired a lawyer, making it easier to close files.

Managers purged complaints after business hours, circumventing an internal review process set up by Accenture Plc, according to two of the people. Employees falsified records to show late-night conversations with borrowers that didn’t happen, the people said.

In retrospect, with such rampant, unsupervised (or perhaps premeditated) criminality going on, one can see why the big banks were (and are) so eager to pay up any settlement proposal they get from Eric Holder, as long as nobody ends up in jail, and guilt is neither admitted nor denied of course.

But the biggest irony is perhaps that Bank of America used none other than the very same employees who originally were peddling the mortgages to consumers at Countrywide (purchased by Bank of America in the worst M&A deal of all time), to facilitate the HAMP “goals”:

Bank of America used ex-Countrywide managers to push Urban Lending to meet its goals, according to the former employees. One of them was Mairone, the only individual named in the government’s first mortgage lawsuit from the financial crisis to reach trial.

 

Mairone was part of the Countrywide team that set up a program known as the Hustle, which removed quality-control steps for mortgages sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, costing the U.S.-backed firms $863.6 million, according to a Nov. 8 filing by prosecutors in federal court in New York.

 

She helped create Bank of America’s HAMP policies as the firm’s lead default-servicing executive, according to the July lawsuit.

Where is Mairone now? “Mairone joined JPMorgan in 2012 and now oversees vendors for that bank, according to a New York Times article.” It really doesn’t get any more hilarious than this…

Not stupid, Bank of America of course realized that one day an article such as this one would come out, so it took preventative steps:

Urban Lending employees were told by trainers that they should never admit fault on the bank’s behalf in writing or over the phone, four former workers said. They were warned that e-mails could be subpoenaed, the people said.

 

To soothe homeowners frustrated by delays, employees had a monthly allotment of $25 and $50 gift cards they could give customers, said three of the former workers. The joke among staff: It was just enough money to buy moving boxes.

 

Urban Lending employees said they were told by their managers that the orders to reduce homeowners’ complaints came directly from Moynihan and Bank of America board members, who checked caseload figures daily. One such push was called the “Drive to Five,” a plan in late 2010 to lower complaints to 5,000 from more than 15,000.

None other than BofA CEO Brian Moynihan has spoken of the bank’s perverse conflicts of interest in this matter: “He told an Atlanta Rotary Club prayer breakfast in October 2011 that foreclosing is “always the option of last resort,” according to prepared remarks. “Foreclosure is not only the worst outcome for a customer, it’s also the worst financial outcome for the servicer and the owner of the mortgage,” he said. “The best decisions are the ones that go beyond our own narrow self-interest.”

This, of course, is a lie: recall that the explicit subsidy that is stuffing bank balance sheets to the gills with “shadow inventory” achieved its mission perfectly: removing millions of housing units in supply from the market, and in the process creating an artificial subsidy as demand had to chase artificially reduced supply, thus pushing home prices higher, and in the process making home ownership far less affordable for everyone else, especially those Americans who not only dutifully pay their taxes, but have a steady job and are willing to pay the monthly mortgage fee. It is they who were and are most impacted by Bank of America’s actions. As for the bank, now that prices are artificially higher by 10%, 20% or more percent, watch as slowly but surely the BofA, JPMs and Wells proceed to release ever more housing inventory from their balance sheets, but from a far higher equilibrium price, thus affording them a few quarters of selling into what is still a sellers market, if not for much longer.

But perhaps the best way to visualize how HAMP failed, is through a case study:

Jose De Santiago, a municipal inspector in Mission Viejo, California, was in the midst of a modification in December 2011 when he got the letter: He had five days to leave his two-bedroom condo. De Santiago, 43, spent Christmas packing his belongings with his son Joseph, then 13, and was out the next day.

 

After a Bloomberg News reporter alerted the lender’s communications department, Bank of America bought the condo from Alton Holdings Inc., which had purchased it in a foreclosure auction. A bank lawyer apologized, and De Santiago was allowed to move back after two weeks.

 

Bank of America offered $5,000 to compensate him for furniture lost in the eviction, according to a draft of a proposed settlement. De Santiago refused because he would have had to sign a liability release, he said. He’s still fighting the lender to get it to repair his credit scores.

 

“They asked me to put in writing how well they treated me,” De Santiago said. “I can’t believe Bank of America was allowed to do the horrible things it did to me and others.” Bank of America’s Sturzenegger said some customers who should have received government assistance may have fallen through the cracks of the system the lender created.

 

“If you went back and re-reviewed the documents, based on today, would they have qualified for HAMP?” Sturzenegger said. “Possibly. That’s the best way to answer it.”

And with Bank of America doing all of the above, one can be certain that every other bank was doing the same.

As for the endgame: “The CEO, dogged by investors’ questions about mortgage costs since taking over in 2010, is dismantling the division that handles delinquent borrowers. The unit had 6,200 contractors as of June, down from its peak of 16,900 last year.”

Since the grotesquely criminal behavior described above likely only touches the surface of what went on at Bank of America et al, one can see why, and one wonders: just what else will be revealed when the centrally-planned experiment to prevent the grand reset finally fails and the Fed’s liquidity tide finally goes out. Whatever it is, we can fast forward to the conclusion and inform American taxpayers that the biggest losers will, once again, be you.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/DTTTooEZoPM/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Despite Proposed Pay Caps, London Bankers Expect 44% Bonus Increase

The European Union’s February decision to outlaw banker bonuses that are more than twice fixed pay was an effort to curb excessive payouts and asymmetric risk-taking. The UK challenged the caps as illegal in September (and the case has yet to be decided) but the European Banking Authority softened its stance last week by allowing banks to exempt staff earning up to EUR 1 million from the rules that cap bonuses. It seems the bankers are making hay while the sun shines as Bloomberg now reports, Managing Directors at banks in London are expecting a 44% rise in bonuses for 2013 – to more than double their average salary.

 

 

Via Bloomberg,

Managing directors at banks in London are expecting a 44 percent rise in bonuses for 2013 even as European authorities seek to scale back compensation, according to a recruiter’s survey.

 

The average bonus for managing directors may increase to 166,955 pounds ($271,686) from 115,618 pounds a year earlier, Astbury Marsden said in an e-mailed statement. That’s more than double their average salary, up from 88 percent in 2012, the recruitment firm said.

 

Despite pressure to keep a lid on bonuses, as the economy recovers and bank profits start to return, it’s not unreasonable that bonus expectations also rise,” Mark Cameron, chief operating officer at Astbury Marsden in London, said in the statement. “Although prospects have improved, some may find themselves disappointed this year.”

 

The European Union brokered a deal in February to outlaw banker bonuses that are more than twice fixed pay, a move lawmakers said would prevent excessive payouts and curb risk-taking. The U.K. in September challenged the caps as illegal at the EU’s highest court in a case that has yet to be decided.

 

The European Banking Authority softened its stance on bonuses somewhat, stating on Dec. 13 that banks will be able to ask national regulators to exempt staff earning as much as 1 million euros ($1.4 million) from rules that cap bonuses at twice fixed pay.

 

 

Britain was home to 2,188 investment bankers earning more than 1 million euros in 2012, the largest share in the EU, while Spain had 37, the London-based EBA, set up in 2011 to harmonize banking rules in the EU, said in a survey last month. France and Germany had 117 and 100, respectively.

It truly seems like we learned nothing from 2008 – though, given the even larger central bank put, the asymmetric return from risk-taking is now even larger… “the music is playing so keep dancing” appears to be the meme once again


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/79GFHFLozSo/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Riverside Cops Pretend To Be High Schoolers, Arrest 25 Students For Pot

Riverside County cops — the same guys responsible for
tricking an autistic teenager into buying marijuana as part of a
drug sting last year
— are back on high school campuses.
Apparently undeterred by
the media
firestorm
 surrounding last year’s arrests and a
lawsuit
charging the department with negligence, the Riverside
County Sherriff’s Department of Riverside County, Calif., has
decided to continue its controversial undercover drug investigation
program. Under this program, officers spend their days in local
high schools pretending to be students. Over a semester, the
officers try to build their underaged “classmates'” trust, then
arrange drug deals with a few dozen students and ultimately arrest
them. 

On Dec. 12, officers arrested 25 students from Perris and Paloma
High Schools for allegedly selling illicit drugs, including
cocaine, prescription pills, and marijuana. According to Lieutenant
Paul Bennett, most of the drug buys were for small
amounts of marijuana

Students say the officers walked into classrooms with photos of
the teen suspects and handcuffed them in front of their peers.
Twenty-three of the suspects are juveniles and two are 18 or
older. 

According to several students who were interviewed
by the Press Enterprise
, the scene was “scary” and
made them suspicious of their peers and teachers. “You think you
can trust people – you just never know,” Bruce Hollen, 16,
said. 

The investigation was carried out with enthusiastic support from
Jonathan Greenberg, superintendent of the Perris Union High School
District. 

From the Press
Enterprise
:

Greenberg said he had no reservations.

“It was a question of what we could do to assist [the
officers],” he said.

“This is a very well-researched program,” he added. “The people
in it are all professionals.”

Greenberg said there were only three district officials who knew
about the investigation. No one on the two campuses was told. He
said he informed school board members Wednesday night [the night
before the arrests].

Unlike last year’s arrests though, Lt. Bennett clarified that no
autistic or learning-disabled teens were arrested; only “mainstream
students” in general classes were. Bennett said the deputies
selected to go undercover this year had received additional
training about dealing with developmentally disabled students.

The Los Angeles Police Department pioneered undercover high
school drug stings decades ago but
discontinued
 the program in 2005 when school officials
noticed eerily similar patterns to now: Special needs kids were
increasingly getting busted and police typically found small
amounts of pot. 

Despite objections from parents,
police
, and
drug policy reform groups
 that the program is ineffective,
“sick”, and emotionally damaging to teens, the Riverside County
Sheriff’s Department stands by it. From the department’s press
release announcing the arrest of the teens:

One of the goals of the Riverside County Sheriff’s Department’s
Special Investigations Bureau (SIB) is to maintain a drug-free
living environment for the community. Because our neighborhood
children are the future, our objective is to keep children
productive and drug-free and provide a safe learning
environment.

The underage students were taken to a juvenile detention hall
while the two adults, 18-year-old Serina Ramirez and 19-year-old
Erick De La Cruz, were taken to a detention center.

Watch a Reason TV video on Riverside County cops tricking an
autistic teen into buying pot:

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2013/12/16/riverside-cops-pretend-to-be-high-school
via IFTTT

Is Bitcoin Bringing The "Dark Web" Into The Light?

Despite the best efforts of the search engines, the majority of the Internet is unsearchable with estimates of this “Unlit” Web as high as 90%. As ConvergEx’s Nick Colas notes, some of this content (no one knows how much) is dark for a reason – hosting every form of criminal behavior known to man – but the rest from the increasing interest in anonymous Internet use in light of widely publicized government surveillance.

Among the least well understood emerging themes in technology, Colas points out, is the “Dark Web”, adding that Oscar Wilde famously opined that “All human beings have three lives: public, private and secret.”  The existing structure of the Internet handles the first two very well.  The Dark Web is, apparently, for the third. The first innovation to move from “Dark” to “Lit” Web is bitcoin, but it certainly won’t be the last.

Via ConvergEx’s Nick Colas,

If you are a fan of the movie The Princess Bride, you might recall the character of Dread Pirate Roberts.  His was as inherited position, with one man handing down the job to a worthy apprentice when he grew tired of the pirating game.  This approach allowed a series of people to benefit from the efforts of many predecessors rather than having to build up their own “Brand” on the high seas.

I am sorry to report that the name Dread Pirate Roberts is now not just a memory from a delightful book and movie, but the nom du guerre of a man accused of running a real life drug website and attempting to arrange several contract killings.  His real name is Ross Ulbricht, and these are the particulars of his case:

According to Federal prosecutors, the FBI arrested Ulbricht at the Glen Park branch of the San Francisco Public Library on October 1st.  They confiscated his laptop computer, where they noted he was logged into a website call Silk Road as an administrator. This was a popular site for the sale and distribution of illegal drugs and other contraband.  The FBI had successfully tracked the operation of the site to Ulbricht, according to court documents related to the case.

 

In documents found on the seized computer, investigators found a journal, which they claim chronicles Ulbricht’s own development of the site back to its founding in 2010.  This included the odd fact that he had grown several kilos of hallucinogenic mushrooms so the site would have something to sell when it went live but before other sellers began to offer their own illegal drugs.

 

As if running an online portal for illicit drugs wasn’t bad enough, Ulbricht also allegedly tried to arrange six murders-for-hire.  The reported targets, all of who are still apparently alive, ranged from blackmailers to fraudulent sellers on the site.  These presumably eroded Silk Road’s reputation and user trust.

 

As of this writing, Ulbricht is being held without bail.  The Federal government confiscated 144,000 bitcoins as part of the investigation, worth $122 million as of today.  Several press accounts of the case theorize that this stash was only part of Ulbricht’s total holdings and that, if true, would give him access to hundreds of millions of dollars in notional wealth with which to flee the country.

The bitcoin piece of this story got some press, given all the recent interest in the online “Currency”; what got lost in the wash was the presence of the “Dark Web” – a parallel, if much larger Internet, to the one we all use every day.  A brief description here:

Google, Yahoo and Bing, among other search engines, only track part of the Internet – essentially the bits that website owners want the public to see.  Business owners strive to optimize their sites to appear on pages 1 or 2 of a given search, knowing that most users will not travel farther.  Time magazine recently ran a cover article on the “Deep Web”, essentially the Internet which search engines do not reach, and estimated that +90% of online content cannot be found by the typical search engines we all use every day.  Wired magazine puts the number at 99%.  Either way, most of the Internet is essentially “Dark”.

 

A large chunk of this “Missing” data must come from its formatting, unfriendly to Google/Yahoo/Bing search algorithms.  Just consider all the economic data available through the Federal Reserve’s datasets.  Typing “FRED inflation” into Google does get you to the St. Louis Fed’s excellent database of economic indicators, but from there you have to enter exactly what you want.  Google, among others, is busy trying to integrate this information; there is a link after the text to a paper describing this effort.  Another example of the Dark Web: your financial information at your bank or broker, held behind security firewalls but available to you with an ID and password.

 

Then there is the part of the Internet that doesn’t want to be found, and where the “Dark Web” means something else.  Silk Road is one example, and even though that site is now shuttered there are other places on the Dark Web where users can purchase illegal drugs.  From there, it gets a lot worse.  There are sites advertising contract killings, illegal pornography, money laundering, and stolen financial information.  Some press reports link global terrorism to the Dark Web.

Now, you won’t find the Dark Web on your Explorer, Safari or Firefox browser.  To find these sites you’ll need something called Tor, short for “The Onion Router”, or other software which essentially makes you anonymous online.  These browsers route your heavily encrypted traffic through a rabbit warren of servers around the world, making it nearly impossible to connect your computer to any individual site you might visit.  Tor was actually developed by the U.S. Navy for secure communication, but the software is available for free here: https://www.torproject.org

Secure and anonymous access to the Internet is becoming a growth business, and Tor is one of the hottest tickets to that show.  The Google search phrase “Tor search” has tripled in the last year, and the query “Tor” is up 100% over the same period.  Like most fashion-forward tech trends, searches for Tor cluster on the coasts, in Oregon, Washington state, California and New York.  Since search engine capability doesn’t reach the Dark Web – by design, of course – TorSearch is now available for users, with a reported 130,000 sites listed and something like a tripling of use in the last few weeks, according to media accounts.

There is an obvious tension between a growth opportunity for business and the need for society to regulate and control the illegal use of any technology.  A few points here:

Aside from search engine companies, there is not much academic research dedicated to the Dark Web.  We spent the better part of day trolling the usual scholarly sites, with little success.

 

Law enforcement seems poorly equipped to handle the challenge.  There was one high profile takedown of a server hosting a range of illegal activities in Irelan
d over the summer (link below), but its success seems to have been caused by a flaw in the Firefox browser software used by Tor.  The flaw has since been fixed.  It wasn’t a technical gltich that brought down Silk Road – one of the supposed hitmen contracted for the murder-for-hire plot was an undercover agent.

 

We did find one consumer product offering related to Tor – something called pogoplug – which directs your web traffic into the anonymous network.  It cost $49 and has wifi for your cell phone.  The downside: Tor is slower than conventional access since your information transits through more connections than the customary point-to-point process.

All that said, we do have one innovation – bitcoin – that successfully made the transition from Dark to “Lit” web.  Silk Road was clearly an early enabler of the online “Currency” but it now has the tacit recognition of everyone from the Federal Reserve to business television. Like the Dark Web, its early appeal was anonymity, but its low cost utility for money transfer should allow it to survive increasing regulatory scrutiny.  It won’t be a flawless transition, considering its birth in the primordial ooze of the Dark Web, but it seems well on its way.

Can there be other innovations, developed in the shadows of the Dark Web, which hit the mainstream?  It seems inevitable.  Revelations of government spying around the world provide the notional demand for anonymous Internet use.  Oscar Wilde famously opined that “All human beings have three lives: public, private and secret.”  The existing structure of the Internet handles the first two very well.  The Dark Web is, apparently, for the third. 


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/FeD7NNb2JFM/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Is Bitcoin Bringing The “Dark Web” Into The Light?

Despite the best efforts of the search engines, the majority of the Internet is unsearchable with estimates of this “Unlit” Web as high as 90%. As ConvergEx’s Nick Colas notes, some of this content (no one knows how much) is dark for a reason – hosting every form of criminal behavior known to man – but the rest from the increasing interest in anonymous Internet use in light of widely publicized government surveillance.

Among the least well understood emerging themes in technology, Colas points out, is the “Dark Web”, adding that Oscar Wilde famously opined that “All human beings have three lives: public, private and secret.”  The existing structure of the Internet handles the first two very well.  The Dark Web is, apparently, for the third. The first innovation to move from “Dark” to “Lit” Web is bitcoin, but it certainly won’t be the last.

Via ConvergEx’s Nick Colas,

If you are a fan of the movie The Princess Bride, you might recall the character of Dread Pirate Roberts.  His was as inherited position, with one man handing down the job to a worthy apprentice when he grew tired of the pirating game.  This approach allowed a series of people to benefit from the efforts of many predecessors rather than having to build up their own “Brand” on the high seas.

I am sorry to report that the name Dread Pirate Roberts is now not just a memory from a delightful book and movie, but the nom du guerre of a man accused of running a real life drug website and attempting to arrange several contract killings.  His real name is Ross Ulbricht, and these are the particulars of his case:

According to Federal prosecutors, the FBI arrested Ulbricht at the Glen Park branch of the San Francisco Public Library on October 1st.  They confiscated his laptop computer, where they noted he was logged into a website call Silk Road as an administrator. This was a popular site for the sale and distribution of illegal drugs and other contraband.  The FBI had successfully tracked the operation of the site to Ulbricht, according to court documents related to the case.

 

In documents found on the seized computer, investigators found a journal, which they claim chronicles Ulbricht’s own development of the site back to its founding in 2010.  This included the odd fact that he had grown several kilos of hallucinogenic mushrooms so the site would have something to sell when it went live but before other sellers began to offer their own illegal drugs.

 

As if running an online portal for illicit drugs wasn’t bad enough, Ulbricht also allegedly tried to arrange six murders-for-hire.  The reported targets, all of who are still apparently alive, ranged from blackmailers to fraudulent sellers on the site.  These presumably eroded Silk Road’s reputation and user trust.

 

As of this writing, Ulbricht is being held without bail.  The Federal government confiscated 144,000 bitcoins as part of the investigation, worth $122 million as of today.  Several press accounts of the case theorize that this stash was only part of Ulbricht’s total holdings and that, if true, would give him access to hundreds of millions of dollars in notional wealth with which to flee the country.

The bitcoin piece of this story got some press, given all the recent interest in the online “Currency”; what got lost in the wash was the presence of the “Dark Web” – a parallel, if much larger Internet, to the one we all use every day.  A brief description here:

Google, Yahoo and Bing, among other search engines, only track part of the Internet – essentially the bits that website owners want the public to see.  Business owners strive to optimize their sites to appear on pages 1 or 2 of a given search, knowing that most users will not travel farther.  Time magazine recently ran a cover article on the “Deep Web”, essentially the Internet which search engines do not reach, and estimated that +90% of online content cannot be found by the typical search engines we all use every day.  Wired magazine puts the number at 99%.  Either way, most of the Internet is essentially “Dark”.

 

A large chunk of this “Missing” data must come from its formatting, unfriendly to Google/Yahoo/Bing search algorithms.  Just consider all the economic data available through the Federal Reserve’s datasets.  Typing “FRED inflation” into Google does get you to the St. Louis Fed’s excellent database of economic indicators, but from there you have to enter exactly what you want.  Google, among others, is busy trying to integrate this information; there is a link after the text to a paper describing this effort.  Another example of the Dark Web: your financial information at your bank or broker, held behind security firewalls but available to you with an ID and password.

 

Then there is the part of the Internet that doesn’t want to be found, and where the “Dark Web” means something else.  Silk Road is one example, and even though that site is now shuttered there are other places on the Dark Web where users can purchase illegal drugs.  From there, it gets a lot worse.  There are sites advertising contract killings, illegal pornography, money laundering, and stolen financial information.  Some press reports link global terrorism to the Dark Web.

Now, you won’t find the Dark Web on your Explorer, Safari or Firefox browser.  To find these sites you’ll need something called Tor, short for “The Onion Router”, or other software which essentially makes you anonymous online.  These browsers route your heavily encrypted traffic through a rabbit warren of servers around the world, making it nearly impossible to connect your computer to any individual site you might visit.  Tor was actually developed by the U.S. Navy for secure communication, but the software is available for free here: https://www.torproject.org

Secure and anonymous access to the Internet is becoming a growth business, and Tor is one of the hottest tickets to that show.  The Google search phrase “Tor search” has tripled in the last year, and the query “Tor” is up 100% over the same period.  Like most fashion-forward tech trends, searches for Tor cluster on the coasts, in Oregon, Washington state, California and New York.  Since search engine capability doesn’t reach the Dark Web – by design, of course – TorSearch is now available for users, with a reported 130,000 sites listed and something like a tripling of use in the last few weeks, according to media accounts.

There is an obvious tension between a growth opportunity for business and the need for society to regulate and control the illegal use of any technology.  A few points here:

Aside from search engine companies, there is not much academic research dedicated to the Dark Web.  We spent the better part of day trolling the usual scholarly sites, with little success.

 

Law enforcement seems poorly equipped to handle the challenge.  There was one high profile takedown of a server hosting a range of illegal activities in Ireland over the summer (link below), but its success seems to have been caused by a flaw in the Firefox browser software used by Tor.  The flaw has since been fixed.  It wasn’t a technical gltich that brought down Silk Road – one of the supposed hitmen contracted for the murder-for-hire plot was an undercover agent.

 

We did find one consumer product offering related to Tor – something called pogoplug – which directs your web traffic into the anonymous network.  It cost $49 and has wifi for your cell phone.  The downside: Tor is slower than conventional access since your information transits through more connections than the customary point-to-point process.

All that said, we do have one innovation – bitcoin – that successfully made the transition from Dark to “Lit” web.  Silk Road was clearly an early enabler of the online “Currency” but it now has the tacit recognition of everyone from the Federal Reserve to business television. Like the Dark Web, its early appeal was anonymity, but its low cost utility for money transfer should allow it to survive increasing regulatory scrutiny.  It won’t be a flawless transition, considering its birth in the primordial ooze of the Dark Web, but it seems well on its way.

Can there be other innovations, developed in the shadows of the Dark Web, which hit the mainstream?  It seems inevitable.  Revelations of government spying around the world provide the notional demand for anonymous Internet use.  Oscar Wilde famously opined that “All human beings have three lives: public, private and secret.”  The existing structure of the Internet handles the first two very well.  The Dark Web is, apparently, for the third. 


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/FeD7NNb2JFM/story01.htm Tyler Durden

White House Wants to Borrow As Much As Government Can Spend, Not Negotiating on Debt Ceiling

"nothing left toThe most recent debt ceiling crisis, when the
debt ceiling was at somewhere under $17 trillion, led to the
mechanism being temporarily suspended, as the US government
continues to borrow money to cover its spending. Congress may be

on the verge
of passing a new spending deal that rolls back
some of the sequester’s attempts to stymie spending, but the White
House isn’t interested in talking about the debt ceiling.


From USA Today:

The White House says President Obama has not changed
his position: He will not negotiate raising the debt ceiling next
year.

White House spokesman Jay Carney said Monday he hopes Republicans
will not make demands “when it comes to the full faith and credit
of the United States.”

Paul Ryan, who helped negotiate the latest spending deal, which
passed the House
overwhelmingly
, claims he wants to keep the door open to
extracting concessions on the debt limit when it is unsuspended
next year.

Follow these stories and more at Reason 24/7 and don’t forget you
can e-mail stories to us at 24_7@reason.com and tweet us
at @reason247.

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2013/12/16/white-house-wants-to-borrow-as-much-as-g
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