Tag: news

US Treasury yields broke down sharply Friday, confirming a near-term, potentially medium-term, turn in trend; and, as BofAML's Macneil Curry notes, this Treasury turn should prove to be a headwind for select USD pairs, (although BofAML remains bigger picture USD bulls); particularly USDJPY. However, the weakness in the Canadian USD – which was the only currency not to rally against the greenback on Friday – suggests the downtrend in the Loonie has significant legs. Precious metals – most notably silver – could also benefit from the Treasury trend change.

Via BofAML's Macneil Curry,

US 5yr yields rollover

US Treasury yields have topped and turned trend, with 5yr yields doing so in particularly dramatic fashion. The bullish reversal from 4.5yr trendline support says 5yr yields should fall another 10bps/15bps in the In the sessions ahead, with worst case potential for a re-test of long term pivot resistance at 1.22%/1.25%.

$/¥ is topping out

With Treasury yields rolling over, $/¥ is set to do the same. A break of 103.74 would confirm the bearish turn in trend. While the Head & Shoulders Top targets the 102 area, CFTC positioning and the completing 5 wave advance from Feb’12 and Oct’13 says weakness can extend to the 200d (now 99.70) and below.

$/CAD: the exception to the rule

Friday saw the US $ fall against all major currencies EXCEPT THE CANADIAN $. Indeed, $/CAD has now reached levels not seen since 2009. While we could see a near term pause or correction, weekly charts say that this trend has significant room to run, with the multi-year Head and Shoulders base targeting 1.1666/1.1841

Silver squeeze

With the US Treasury market turning and the US $ near term vulnerable, precious metals should benefit. Silver is particularly worthy of note as a break of 20.51/20.62 resistance would complete a near term base and turn higher opening further gains towards the Oct-30 high at 23.09

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/IpjiVxX11gI/story01.htm Tyler Durden

US Treasury yields broke down sharply Friday, confirming a near-term, potentially medium-term, turn in trend; and, as BofAML's Macneil Curry notes, this Treasury turn should prove to be a headwind for select USD pairs, (although BofAML remains bigger picture USD bulls); particularly USDJPY. However, the weakness in the Canadian USD – which was the only currency not to rally against the greenback on Friday – suggests the downtrend in the Loonie has significant legs. Precious metals – most notably silver – could also benefit from the Treasury trend change.

Via BofAML's Macneil Curry,

US 5yr yields rollover

US Treasury yields have topped and turned trend, with 5yr yields doing so in particularly dramatic fashion. The bullish reversal from 4.5yr trendline support says 5yr yields should fall another 10bps/15bps in the In the sessions ahead, with worst case potential for a re-test of long term pivot resistance at 1.22%/1.25%.

$/¥ is topping out

With Treasury yields rolling over, $/¥ is set to do the same. A break of 103.74 would confirm the bearish turn in trend. While the Head & Shoulders Top targets the 102 area, CFTC positioning and the completing 5 wave advance from Feb’12 and Oct’13 says weakness can extend to the 200d (now 99.70) and below.

$/CAD: the exception to the rule

Friday saw the US $ fall against all major currencies EXCEPT THE CANADIAN $. Indeed, $/CAD has now reached levels not seen since 2009. While we could see a near term pause or correction, weekly charts say that this trend has significant room to run, with the multi-year Head and Shoulders base targeting 1.1666/1.1841

Silver squeeze

With the US Treasury market turning and the US $ near term vulnerable, precious metals should benefit. Silver is particularly worthy of note as a break of 20.51/20.62 resistance would complete a near term base and turn higher opening further gains towards the Oct-30 high at 23.09

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/IpjiVxX11gI/story01.htm Tyler Durden

In the last 3 years, the volume of options quotes (not trades) in the first few seconds of the US equity market’s open has exploded. From around 1 million quotes in the first second of the day in 2011, Nanex’ detailed animation shows that volumes are now reaching 4 million quotes. Does this quote spam look like it provides liquidity? Wondering why the opening price action in US equity markets has become incredulous in recent months – with vertical dump-and-pumps – wonder no more… ‘efficient’ markets indeed…

 

Via Nanex: (@NanexLLC)

Each line shows the number of option quotes each second over the first 20 seconds of trading for 1 day.

The animation adds 1 new day per frame to show the growth.

The range of dates is January 2011 through January 9, 2014. 

 

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1eAXNCP Tyler Durden

Following Japan's proclamations that it will take over another 280 'disputed ownership' islands, it appears the increasingly dis-approved of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's path of militarism and provocation is working. As China Daily Mail reports, according to experts, China intends to take back Zhongye Island – 'illegally' occupied by the Philippines, according to the Chinese. The Chinese navy has drawn a detailed combat plan to seize the island and the battle will be restricted within the South China Sea. Philippines military is building up on the island and the Chinese see as 'intolerable' the "arrogance" relying on US support. It seems the Obama administration may have to 'not take sides' in another fight soon.
 

 

Background on the build-up…

Eugenio Bito-onon Jr, mayor of the Kalayaan island group, part of the contested Spratly islands administered by the Philippines, recently confirmed that the Western Command of the Armed Forces of the Philippines has deployed new air force troops in rotation to the disputed island of Thitu, according to Jaime Laude in a report for the Manila-based Philippine Star on Jan. 5.

 

 

Known as Pag-asa in the Philippines and Zhongye island by both China and Taiwan, Thitu is the second largest in the Spratly island chain in the South China Sea and the largest of all Philippine-occupied Spratly islands.

 

Laude said that the air force troops were deployed to Thitu island by naval aircraft, which will give the residents of the island a chance to visit Kalayaan aboard the returning plane. He added that China's maritime expansion into the South China Sea continues to put pressure on the Philippines, and the Philippine Navy have also been stationed in the area to defend the islands.

 

…

 

Six countries – Taiwan, China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei — claim in whole or part to the South China Sea and its island chains and shoals.

And the Latest Tensions…

Via China Daily Mail (translated from Chinese media),

Relying on US support, the Philippines is so arrogant as to announce in the New Year that it will increase its navy and air force deployment at Zhongye Island, a Chinese island that it has illegally occupied for years.

 

It will be an intolerable insult to China

 

According to experts, the Chinese navy has drawn a detailed combat plan to seize the island and the battle will be restricted within the South China Sea.

 

The battle is aimed at recovery of the island stolen by the Philippines from China.

 

There will be no invasion into Filipino territories.

 

A report in the Philippines Star confirmed the Philippines military buildup on the island.

Source: qianzhan.com “Sudden major move of Chinese troops this year to recover Zhongye Island by force”

 

Of course, claims that "battle will be restricted" are nothing but taunting and should China launch an offsensive here, we suspect the already dry and brittle tinder box in the South (and East) China Sea could rapidly escalate.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/2WOEOYWnmM8/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Following Japan's proclamations that it will take over another 280 'disputed ownership' islands, it appears the increasingly dis-approved of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's path of militarism and provocation is working. As China Daily Mail reports, according to experts, China intends to take back Zhongye Island – 'illegally' occupied by the Philippines, according to the Chinese. The Chinese navy has drawn a detailed combat plan to seize the island and the battle will be restricted within the South China Sea. Philippines military is building up on the island and the Chinese see as 'intolerable' the "arrogance" relying on US support. It seems the Obama administration may have to 'not take sides' in another fight soon.
 

 

Background on the build-up…

Eugenio Bito-onon Jr, mayor of the Kalayaan island group, part of the contested Spratly islands administered by the Philippines, recently confirmed that the Western Command of the Armed Forces of the Philippines has deployed new air force troops in rotation to the disputed island of Thitu, according to Jaime Laude in a report for the Manila-based Philippine Star on Jan. 5.

 

 

Known as Pag-asa in the Philippines and Zhongye island by both China and Taiwan, Thitu is the second largest in the Spratly island chain in the South China Sea and the largest of all Philippine-occupied Spratly islands.

 

Laude said that the air force troops were deployed to Thitu island by naval aircraft, which will give the residents of the island a chance to visit Kalayaan aboard the returning plane. He added that China's maritime expansion into the South China Sea continues to put pressure on the Philippines, and the Philippine Navy have also been stationed in the area to defend the islands.

 

…

 

Six countries – Taiwan, China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei — claim in whole or part to the South China Sea and its island chains and shoals.

And the Latest Tensions…

Via China Daily Mail (translated from Chinese media),

Relying on US support, the Philippines is so arrogant as to announce in the New Year that it will increase its navy and air force deployment at Zhongye Island, a Chinese island that it has illegally occupied for years.

 

It will be an intolerable insult to China

 

According to experts, the Chinese navy has drawn a detailed combat plan to seize the island and the battle will be restricted within the South China Sea.

 

The battle is aimed at recovery of the island stolen by the Philippines from China.

 

There will be no invasion into Filipino territories.

 

A report in the Philippines Star confirmed the Philippines military buildup on the island.

Source: qianzhan.com “Sudden major move of Chinese troops this year to recover Zhongye Island by force”

 

Of course, claims that "battle will be restricted" are nothing but taunting and should China launch an offsensive here, we suspect the already dry and brittle tinder box in the South (and East) China Sea could rapidly escalate.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/2WOEOYWnmM8/story01.htm Tyler Durden