Tag: news

Many thought Goldman was joking when, in its preview of today’s delayed September NFP, it essentially said the number doesn’t matter – it will be bullish no matter what (a +1 million print will be bearish as it means 2 million have to reenter the workforce now that the labor participation rate is an issue, as opposed to 2010 when it was only mentioned on Zero Hedge; a -1 million print will mean taper in 2099; both numbers will be spun as better than in reality due to the government shutdown that did not even take place in the month of September) as it means more Fed, more of the time. Sadly, in central-planning that pretty much covers it up. For everyone wanting some more info on what to expect in under half an hour, here is the full breakdown from RanSquawk.

September US Non-Farm Payrolls

• US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) M/M Exp. 180k, Low 100k, High 256k (Prev. 169k, Jul 104k)
• US Unemployment Rate (Sep) M/M Exp. 7.3%, Low 7.1%, High 7.4% (Prev. 7.3%, Jul 7.4%)

“Safety in Numbers” estimates by bank:

• Deutsche Bank 170k
• Bank of America 170k
• HSBC 171k
• Citigroup 180k
• UBS 195k
• JP Morgan 195k
• Barclays 200k
• Goldman Sachs 200k

The September nonfarm payrolls report will be released today, eleven days later than originally scheduled, after a bipartisan agreement was reached to reopen the US government.

The release, as has become the norm, will be used to gauge when the Fed will begin to reduce its QE3 programme. However, amid the fiscal dysfunction on Capitol Hill, several FOMC members noted that delays to key macroeconomic data due to the shutdown may prevent the Fed from making informed changes to its policy measures. Furthermore, a very similar budgetary stand-off in the US may well be seen in the new year, with last week’s deal being just a temporary measure to fund the government until mid-January. As a result, many analysts have pushed back their forecasts for a reduction in Fed bond-buying.

Last month, 169k jobs were added, lower than the expected 180k and the previous month was given a large downward revision. The unemployment rate declined to 7.3% from 7.4% in July; however, this was attributed to a decline in the labour force participation rate.

The September ADP employment reading, which is calculated using a very similar methodology to nonfarm payrolls, came in at 166k, missing the median expectation of 180k, with the previous reading also seeing a significant downward revision. As has been seen in many of this year’s NFP readings, the ADP release suggested that US labour market activity is continuing to soften. US government austerity measures prior to the shutdown, as well as the recent rise in rates, appear to have dampened the recovery. It may also have been hampered by investor concern over the approaching budgetary gridlock that had been on the horizon for many months.

Market Reaction

As mentioned, many participants believe the Fed will be reluctant to reduce QE given the uncertainty over both the economic effects of the shutdown and the outcome when the temporary deal lapses. If that is the case, a reasonably strong reading could boost sentiment, lifting stocks and weighing on bonds in a knee-jerk reaction. But with stocks at near-all-time highs, there may be little scope for further upside. Conversely, a very strong number, significantly above the majority of expectations, has the potential to induce forecasts for a QE reduction. If so, considerable downside risks would be posed to fixed income. However, a very large beat on expectations would be required for the US 10-year yield to reach the 2.75% level seen during last week’s Washington turmoil.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/aOolihR7lWI/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Can someone please explain this whole “Grecovery” concept to use because neither we, nor apparently the people of Greece which are not only unemployed and broke, but have negative savings, and collapsing wages, social benefits and disposable income, seem able to understand it.

Here is the latest absolutely disastrous news from Elstat, reporting on Q2 Greek Non-financial sector accounts

During the second quarter of 2013, disposable income of the households and non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH) sector (S.1M) decreased by 9.3% in comparison with the same quarter of the previous year, from 33.2 billion euro to 30.1 billion euro. This was mainly on account of a decrease of 13.9% in the compensation of employees and a decrease of 12.4% in social benefits received by households.

This was the biggest drop in household disposable income since Q3 2012. Is this part of the Grecovery?

Next, the savings rate of the households and NPISH sector, defined as gross savings divided by gross disposable income, was -8.7% in the second quarter of 2013, compared with -6.7% in the second quarter of 2012.

So, households are broke, unemployed, and have negative savings. But at least the stock market is up. Is this, too, part of the Grecovery?

Finally, remember that myth about the suddenly accountable and responsible Greek government, which has a primary surplus, and is living within its means? Then please explain the following:

Net borrowing of general government (S.13) during the second quarter of 2013 amounted to 14.0 billion euro, compared with 3.8 billion euro in the second quarter of 2012. The increase in the General Government deficit in the second quarter of 2013 is due to capital transfers in the context of the program of state aid to specific banks. Net borrowing of general government excluding the impact of the support to financial institutions in the second quarter 2012 amounted to 2.6 billion euro.

This was the biggest quarterly government borrowqing in well… ever. Is this the final component of the Grecovery?

And some other independent data poinst:

• Greek 2Q Govt Deficit Widens to 16.6% of GDP From 11.0% in 1Q – obviously, this spells Grecovery
• Greek Debt Swells to 169.1% of GDP in 2Q, Nearing Pre-PSI Levels – this definitely must be the Grecovery, right?

The good news for all the broke, unemployment, incomeless Greeks: you still have your precious Euro.

Source: Elstat

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/0NhjZGoiQyc/story01.htm Tyler Durden

That Saudi Arabia has been furious at the US for refusing to be the monarchy’s puppet Globocop, and in the last minute declining to bomb Syria following Putin’s gambit in which World War III seemed a distinctly possible consequence of John Kerry’s hamheaded “YouTube-substantiated” false flag campaign, is no secret. However, while the US has largely forgotten this latest foreign policy debacle and the humiliation it brought upon the Department of State, Saudi Arabia is nowhere close to forgetting. Or forgiving. And this time the anger comes from the one man who truly matters, and whom we dubbed several months ago as the puppetmaster behind the Syrian campaign: the man in charge of Saudi intelligence, Prince Bandar Bin Sultan.

The WSJ reports overnight, that Prince Bandar told European diplomats this weekend that he plans to scale back cooperating with the U.S. to arm and train Syrian rebels in protest of Washington’s policy in the region, participants in the meeting said.  This demonstratively framed announcement follows Saudi Arabia’s surprise decision on Friday to renounce a seat on the United Nations Security Council. “The Saudi government, after preparing and campaigning for the seat for a year, cited what it said was the council’s ineffectiveness in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian and Syrian conflicts.”

In short: Bin Sultan has decided to take the stage and make it quite clear that this lack of aggression by the US will not stand. The question is: what can or will he do?

Diplomats here said Prince Bandar, who is leading the kingdom’s efforts to fund, train and arm rebels fighting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, invited a Western diplomat to the Saudi Red Sea city of Jeddah over the weekend to voice Riyadh’s frustration with the Obama administration and its regional policies, including the decision not to bomb Syria in response to its alleged use of chemical weapons in August.

 

“This was a message for the U.S., not the U.N.,” Prince Bandar was quoted by diplomats as specifying of Saudi Arabia’s decision to walk away from the Security Council membership.

…

U.S. officials said they interpreted Prince Bandar’s message to the Western diplomat as an expression of discontent designed to push the U.S. in a different direction. “Obviously he wants us to do more,” said a senior U.S. official.

Obviously. What is odd is that the “proxy” intelligence chief appears to have usurped foreign policy decision-making from the Saudi king himself.

Top decisions in Saudi Arabia come from the king, Abdullah bin Abdulaziz al Saud, and it isn’t known if Prince Bandar’s reported remarks reflected a decision by the monarch, or an effort by Prince Bandar to influence the king. However, the diplomats said, Prince Bandar told them he intends to roll back a partnership with the U.S. in which the Central Intelligence Agency and other nations’ security bodies have covertly helped train Syrian rebels to fight Mr. Assad, Prince Bandar said, according to the diplomats. Saudi Arabia would work with other allies instead in that effort, including Jordan and France, the prince was quoted as saying.

If there was any confusion that the entire Syrian campaign was purely at the behest of the Qataris and the Saudis as we first suggested in May, it can finally be put to bed.

The monarchy was particularly angered by Mr. Obama’s decision to scrap plans to bomb Syria in response to the alleged chemical-weapons attack in August and, more recently, tentative overtures between Mr. Obama and Iran’s new president.

 

Diplomats and officials familiar with events recounted two previously undisclosed episodes during the buildup to the aborted Western strike on Syria that allegedly further unsettled the Saudi-U.S. relationship.

 

In the run-up to the expected U.S. strikes, Saudi leaders asked for detailed U.S. plans for posting Navy ships to guard the Saudi oil center, the Eastern Province, during any strike on Syria, an official familiar with that discussion said. The Saudis were surprised when the Americans told them U.S. ships wouldn’t be able to fully protect the oil region, the official said.

 

Disappointed, the Saudis told the U.S. that they were open to alternatives to their long-standing defense partnership, emphasizing that they would look for good weapons at good prices, whatever the source, the official said.

 

In the second episode, one Western diplomat described Saudi Arabia as eager to be a military partner in what was to have been the U.S.-led military strikes on Syria. As part of that, the Saudis asked to be given the list of military targets for the proposed strikes. The Saudis indicated they never got the information, the diplomat said.

…

“The Saudis are very upset. They don’t know where the Americans want to go,” said a senior European diplomat not in Riyadh.

To be sure, not just Prccne Bandar is angry – everyone else in Saudi is now fuming at Obama too:

In Washington in recent days, Saudi officials have privately complained to U.S. lawmakers that they increasingly feel cut out of U.S. decision-making on Syria and Iran. A senior American official described the king as “angry.”

 

Another senior U.S. official added: “Our interests increasingly don’t align.”

Fair enough: but what can it do? It is no secret, that as the primary hub of the petrodollar system which is instrumental to keeping the dollar’s reserve status, Saudi has no choice but to cooperate with the US, or else risk even further deterioration of the USD reserve status. A development which would certainly please China… and Russia, both of which are actively engaging in Plan B preparations for the day when the USD is merely the latest dethroned reserve currency on the scrap heap of all such formerly world-dominant currencies.

Perhaps the only party that Saudi can lash out at, since it certainly fears escalating its animosity with the US even more, is Russia. And perhaps it did yesterday, when as we reported, a suicide-bombing terrorist incident captured on a dashcam killed many people, and was supposedly organized by an Islamist extremist – of the kind that Bandar told Putin several months ago are controlled and funded by Saudi intelligence chief.

If true, and if Saudi wants to project its impotence vis-a-vis the US by attacking Russia, this will likely culminate with the Sochi winter Olympics. So will Prince Bandar be crazy enough to take on none other than the former KGB chief? And more importantly, just like in the US Syrian fiasco, what happens when and if Putin retaliates against the true power that holds the USD in place?

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/fRdCtOlbBdc/story01.htm Tyler Durden

That Saudi Arabia has been furious at the US for refusing to be the monarchy’s puppet Globocop, and in the last minute declining to bomb Syria following Putin’s gambit in which World War III seemed a distinctly possible consequence of John Kerry’s hamheaded “YouTube-substantiated” false flag campaign, is no secret. However, while the US has largely forgotten this latest foreign policy debacle and the humiliation it brought upon the Department of State, Saudi Arabia is nowhere close to forgetting. Or forgiving. And this time the anger comes from the one man who truly matters, and whom we dubbed several months ago as the puppetmaster behind the Syrian campaign: the man in charge of Saudi intelligence, Prince Bandar Bin Sultan.

The WSJ reports overnight, that Prince Bandar told European diplomats this weekend that he plans to scale back cooperating with the U.S. to arm and train Syrian rebels in protest of Washington’s policy in the region, participants in the meeting said.  This demonstratively framed announcement follows Saudi Arabia’s surprise decision on Friday to renounce a seat on the United Nations Security Council. “The Saudi government, after preparing and campaigning for the seat for a year, cited what it said was the council’s ineffectiveness in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian and Syrian conflicts.”

In short: Bin Sultan has decided to take the stage and make it quite clear that this lack of aggression by the US will not stand. The question is: what can or will he do?

Diplomats here said Prince Bandar, who is leading the kingdom’s efforts to fund, train and arm rebels fighting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, invited a Western diplomat to the Saudi Red Sea city of Jeddah over the weekend to voice Riyadh’s frustration with the Obama administration and its regional policies, including the decision not to bomb Syria in response to its alleged use of chemical weapons in August.

 

“This was a message for the U.S., not the U.N.,” Prince Bandar was quoted by diplomats as specifying of Saudi Arabia’s decision to walk away from the Security Council membership.

…

U.S. officials said they interpreted Prince Bandar’s message to the Western diplomat as an expression of discontent designed to push the U.S. in a different direction. “Obviously he wants us to do more,” said a senior U.S. official.

Obviously. What is odd is that the “proxy” intelligence chief appears to have usurped foreign policy decision-making from the Saudi king himself.

Top decisions in Saudi Arabia come from the king, Abdullah bin Abdulaziz al Saud, and it isn’t known if Prince Bandar’s reported remarks reflected a decision by the monarch, or an effort by Prince Bandar to influence the king. However, the diplomats said, Prince Bandar told them he intends to roll back a partnership with the U.S. in which the Central Intelligence Agency and other nations’ security bodies have covertly helped train Syrian rebels to fight Mr. Assad, Prince Bandar said, according to the diplomats. Saudi Arabia would work with other allies instead in that effort, including Jordan and France, the prince was quoted as saying.

If there was any confusion that the entire Syrian campaign was purely at the behest of the Qataris and the Saudis as we first suggested in May, it can finally be put to bed.

The monarchy was particularly angered by Mr. Obama’s decision to scrap plans to bomb Syria in response to the alleged chemical-weapons attack in August and, more recently, tentative overtures between Mr. Obama and Iran’s new president.

 

Diplomats and officials familiar with events recounted two previously undisclosed episodes during the buildup to the aborted Western strike on Syria that allegedly further unsettled the Saudi-U.S. relationship.

 

In the run-up to the expected U.S. strikes, Saudi leaders asked for detailed U.S. plans for posting Navy ships to guard the Saudi oil center, the Eastern Province, during any strike on Syria, an official familiar with that discussion said. The Saudis were surprised when the Americans told them U.S. ships wouldn’t be able to fully protect the oil region, the official said.

 

Disappointed, the Saudis told the U.S. that they were open to alternatives to their long-standing defense partnership, emphasizing that they would look for good weapons at good prices, whatever the source, the official said.

 

In the second episode, one Western diplomat described Saudi Arabia as eager to be a military partner in what was to have been the U.S.-led military strikes on Syria. As part of that, the Saudis asked to be given the list of military targets for the proposed strikes. The Saudis indicated they never got the information, the diplomat said.

…

“The Saudis are very upset. They don’t know where the Americans want to go,” said a senior European diplomat not in Riyadh.

To be sure, not just Prccne Bandar is angry – everyone else in Saudi is now fuming at Obama too:

In Washington in recent days, Saudi officials have privately complained to U.S. lawmakers that they increasingly feel cut out of U.S. decision-making on Syria and Iran. A senior American official described the king as “angry.”

 

Another senior U.S. official added: “Our interests increasingly don’t align.”

Fair enough: but what can it do? It is no secret, that as the primary hub of the petrodollar system which is instrumental to keeping the dollar’s reserve status, Saudi has no choice but to cooperate with the US, or else risk even further deterioration of the USD reserve status. A development which would certainly please China… and Russia, both of which are actively engaging in Plan B preparations for the day when the USD is merely the latest dethroned reserve currency on the scrap heap of all such formerly world-dominant currencies.

Perhaps the only party that Saudi can lash out at, since it certainly fears escalating its animosity with the US even more, is Russia. And perhaps it did yesterday, when as we reported, a suicide-bombing terrorist incident captured on a dashcam killed many people, and was supposedly organized by an Islamist extremist – of the kind that Bandar told Putin several months ago are controlled and funded by Saudi intelligence chief.

If true, and if Saudi wants to project its impotence vis-a-vis the US by attacking Russia, this will likely culminate with the Sochi winter Olympics. So will Prince Bandar be crazy enough to take on none other than the former KGB chief? And more importantly, just like in the US Syrian fiasco, what happens when and if Putin retaliates against the true power that holds the USD in place?

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/fRdCtOlbBdc/story01.htm Tyler Durden

• Despite budget win, Obama has weak hand with Congress (Reuters)
• Carney Brings In McKinsey for Bank of England Strategy Rethink (BBG)
• Bill Gates Buys Stake in Spanish Construction Company FCC (WSJ)
• Jerusalem Mayor Barkat Seeks New Term in Race Arabs Sitting Out (BBG)
• J.P. Morgan Aimed to Limit Damage (WSJ)
• EU Lawmakers Reject Draghi Call for Bank Bondholder Clemency (BBG)
• Wall Street Profits May Halve in Second Half (WSJ)
• Petrobras-led group wins Brazil oil auction with minimum bid (Reuters)
• Apple to Refresh IPads Amid Challenges for Tablet Share (BBG)
• Italy plans to offer guarantees on govt bond derivatives (Reuters)
• Berkshire Beats Apple as Favorite Stock of Tiger 21 Group (BBG)
• Why Data Artisans Are The New Data Scientists (FC)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

* President Barack Obama acknowledged Monday that widespread technical problems have prevented many Americans from using the federal government’s new online health-insurance marketplaces, and he pledged to resolve the issues. He said that the law’s overall potential shouldn’t be measured by the website’s rocky start.

* Saudi Arabia’s intelligence chief told European diplomats that he plans to scale back cooperating with the U.S. to arm and train Syrian rebels in protest of Washington’s policy in the region.

* JPMorgan is willing to pay a steep price to settle with the Justice Department over soured mortgage securities, but it is getting one thing it wanted: It won’t have to pay heavy penalties for the sins of two companies it bought during the crisis. JP Morgan will pay roughly $2 billion in penalties that apply to its own conduct during the years before the financial crisis, and not any for problems it inherited from Bear Stearns Cos or Washington Mutual Inc.

* The CFTC has asked Deutsche Bank, Citigroup and others to trawl through their records as part of a global probe into possible currency-market manipulation and hand over any evidence of wrongdoing.

* A UK judge said he wouldn’t renew a court order that prevented the Journal from publishing names of individuals the government planned to implicate in the Libor interest-rate manipulation case.

* RadioShack Corp is getting a financial boost from GE Capital on the cusp of the crucial holiday selling season, people familiar with the matter said. The General Electric unit will extend loans of about $835 million secured by existing assets, including inventory, to refinance outstanding bank debt.

* The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is probing a lending business owned by eBay Inc that has been criticized for allegedly imposing excessive finance charges.

* Caesars Entertainment Corp disclosed Monday that federal regulators, continuing a crackdown on money laundering, are investigating the unit that operates its flagship hotel and casino in Las Vegas.

 

FT

Former top JPMorgan Chase banker, Achilles Macris, filed a claim against Britain’s financial watchdog, saying he was wrongly identified and criticised in settlement papers involving the “London Whale” trading scandal.

Former ICAP, Rabobank, Royal Bank of Scotland, Deutsche Bank and UBS employees were among the 22 names that Britain’s financial watchdog included as alleged co-conspirators of Tom Hayes, a former star trader at both UBS and Citigroup, facing criminal charges for manipulating Libor benchmark interest rates.

A consortium led by Royal Dutch Shell, France’s Total, Brazil’s state-run Petrobras, and PetroChina won the bid for the Libra deepwater oilfield in an auction on Monday.

Subscription video company Netflix’s shares rose about 10 percent in after-market trading after it reported it had signed on over 40 million global subscribers and tripled third-quarter profits, beating analysts’ estimates.

British Sky Broadcasting and Twitter have teamed up to share video highlights from Uefa Champions League football games in real time.

 

NYT

* After a court suit from Macy’s claimed an exclusive contract with Martha Stewart, J.C. Penney scaled back its Stewart line as a court deadline appeared near.

* With gargantuan revenue – expected to hit $75 billion this year – Amazon’s recent profits have been slim to nonexistent. In its quest to become the world’s bazaar, are earnings beside the point?

* Michael Evans, Goldman Sachs’ global head of growth markets, who had been thought to be a possible successor to Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein, plans to retire.

* Alaska’s salmon fishing industry essentially declared victory last week in a bitter dispute with the Marine Stewardship Council over sustainability certification, a fight that involved Walmart.

* A panel of European Union lawmakers on Monday night backed a measure that could require American companies like Google and Yahoo to seek clearance from European officials before complying with United States warrants seeking private data.

* Both the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq stock market have said they would accept what Alibaba calls a partnership governance structure, in which its founders and top executives would nominate a majority of board members.

* The parent of Madame Tussaud’s and a clean energy business backed by the financier Guy Hands each said on Monday that they planned to go public on the London Stock Exchange, as their private equity owners seek to begin cashing out of their investments.

* Zhang Zhirong, a Chinese industrialist who was involved in an insider trading case in the United States last year, may make a takeover bid for Glorious Property Holdings, a Hong Kong developer in which he owns a majority stake.

* McDonald’s warned on Monday that global sales at established restaurants would be relatively flat in October and signaled that weakness would continue in the fourth quarter because of stiff competition and a halting economic recovery, putting pressure on the company’s Chief Executive, Donald Thompson.

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

* The Prime Minister’s Office intervened directly in the Senate expense affair, pressing Prince Edward Island Senator Mike Duffy into a plan to repay past expense claims and instructing him on what he should say to the media, Duffy’s lawyer says.

* A split has emerg
ed in Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s government over a fundamental principle: the rules governing the potential breakup of Canada. The Conservatives’ senior Quebec minister has declared in two media interviews that a 50-percent-plus-one vote for separation is enough for a province to secede.

Reports in the business section:

* A U.S. unit of Montreal-based CGI Group Inc, a global technology services giant with annual revenue of $10 billion, is the main contractor behind the problem-plagued, Web-based insurance exchange that plays a key role in the Affordable Care Act, commonly known as Obamacare.

* Canadian food giant Maple Leaf Foods Inc is facing a potential breakup as it puts its $1.6-billion bakery unit up for sale, at the same time as potential suitors target its meat division.

NATIONAL POST

* Hospitals and clinics should resist patient requests to be treated by doctors of a particular race, religion or sex, a top medical group is telling its members, highlighting a touchy yet reportedly common healthcare phenomenon.

* The West Coast General Hospital in Port Alberni, British Columbia, recently posted signs on its doors telling visitors to stop bringing flowers for friends and family.

FINANCIAL POST

* Canada will relax rules on foreign investment for the United States, Mexico and 12 other countries as a result of its free trade pact with the European Union.

* Sales of new homes in the Toronto housing market appear to be rebounding but activity in the country’s largest market has a long way to go to match 2012 levels.

 

China

CHINA SECURITIES JOURNAL

– China’s Ministry of Environmental Protection has submitted a proposal to curb soil pollution and the plan is expected to be rolled out no later than early next year, Zhuang Guotai, a senior ministry official, was quoted as saying.

– The northern city of Tianjin has submitted an application to turn its Binhai New Area to a free-trade zone similar to the one launched in Shanghai last month, the head of the area, Zong Guoying, told the newspaper.

SHANGHAI SECURITIES NEWS

– The Dalian Commodity Exchange has sought public feedback for its proposed fibreboard and plywood futures contracts as the bourse looks to introduce more forestry products to broaden its offering.

– Severe air pollution in the northern city of Harbin, the capital of the Heilongjiang province, this week is set to intensify calls for the government to clean up the environment. The haze, which shrouded the city and caused visibility to drop to less than 50 metres in some urban areas, led the city to suspend schools.

SHANGHAI DAILY

– Robust sales of high-end homes propelled the average cost of a new home in Shanghai to exceed the 26,000 yuan per square metre (US$4,262) threshold last week. The average price of new homes, excluding government-funded affordable housing, climbed 12 percent week on week to 26,527 yuan per square metre during the seven-day period ended on Sunday, Shanghai Deovolente Realty Co said.

– Baidu, China’s largest Internet search engine operator, will tie up with China Asset Management Co Ltd to launch an asset management product for registered users of Baifubao, its payment arm, joining other Internet giants offering financial services to web users.

CHINA DAILY

– Reforming the finance relationship between China’s central and local governments will be the centrepiece of the nation’s pending fiscal reform, which will be discussed at the coming plenary meeting in November, analysts said.

– A draft amendment to China’s environmental law that was presented to lawmakers would require local governments to carefully consider how their long-term development strategies affect the environment. Another draft amendment would make it easier for environmental agencies to file public interest lawsuits against polluters.

21st Century Business Herald

– China will resolve the wind power sector’s ongoing problems with grid connection in the next three years, the head of the renewables energy department at the National Energy Administration said at an industry conference.

PEOPLE’S DAILY

– The Asia-Pacific region should strengthen coordination and cooperation among neighbouring countries to achieve win-win situation, the mouthpiece of the Chinese communist party said in a commentary.

 

Fly On The Wall 7:00 AM Market Snapshot

ANALYST RESEARCH

Upgrades

Crosstex Energy LP (XTEX) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse
Harmony Gold (HMY) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman
KeyCorp (KEY) upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Keefe Bruyette
Kohl’s (KSS) upgraded to Hold from Sell at Deutsche Bank
NRG Yield (NYLD) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman
Netflix (NFLX) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Evercore
SanDisk (SNDK) upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at BMO Capital
Triple-S (GTS) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup
Zimmer (ZMH) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse

Downgrades

AK Steel (AKS) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS
athenahealth (ATHN) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James
Bon-Ton Stores (BONT) downgraded to In-Line from Outperform at Imperial Capital
Bonanza Creek (BCEI) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Wunderlich
CoreSite Realty (COR) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies
Crosstex Energy (XTXI) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital
CubeSmart (CUBE) downgraded to Market Perform from Strong Buy at Raymond James
Digital Realty (DLR) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies
Extra Space Storage (EXR) downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James
Federal Signal (FSS) downgraded to Neutral from Speculative Buy at Global Hunter
Forest Oil (FST) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman
Forest Oil (FST) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley
Gap (GPS) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital
Marriott Vacations (VAC) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at SunTrust
Nokia (NOK) downgraded to Sell from Buy at Nordea
North American Palladium (PAL) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse
Public Storage (PSA) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James
Reliance Steel (RS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS
Ruckus Wireless (RKUS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman
Seadrill (SDRL) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan
Sonic (SONC) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays
Sovran Self Storage (SSS) downgraded to Market Perform at Raymond James
Synageva (GEVA) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Leerink
U.S. Steel (X) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS
Wisdom Tree (WETF) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill
Zions Bancorp (ZION) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup

Initiations

Altera (ALTR) initiated with a Buy at Drexel Hamilton
Analog Devices (ADI) initiated with a Buy at Drexel Hamilton
Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) initiated with a Buy at Roth Capital
Auxilium (AUXL) initiated with an Outperform at JMP Securities
BioSpecifics (BSTC) initiated with an Outperform at JMP Securities
Broadcom (BRCM) initiated with a Hold at Drexel Hamilton
Clean Harbors (CLH) initiated with a Buy at KeyBanc
Enzymotec (ENZY) initiated with a Buy at BofA/Merrill
Enzymotec (ENZY) initiated with a Buy at Canaccord
Enzymotec (ENZY) initiated with a Hold at Jefferies
Linear Technology (LLTC) initiated with a Buy at Drexel Hamilton
Micron (MU) initiated with a Buy at Drexel Hamilton
Qualcomm (QCOM) initiated with a Buy at Drexel Hamilton
RingCentral (RNG) initiated with a Buy at Goldman
RingCentral (RNG) initiated with an Overweight at JPMorgan
Texas Instruments (TXN) initiated with a Buy at Drexel Hamilton
TripAdvisor (TRIP) initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse
Violin Memory (VMEM) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank
Violin Memory (VMEM) initiated with a Neutral at RW Baird
Violin Memory (VMEM) initiated with an Equal Weight at Barclays
Violin Memory (VMEM) initiated with an Overweight at JPMorgan

HOT STOCKS

Microsemi (MSCC) to buy Symmetricom (SYMM) for $7.18 per share, a transaction value of about $230M
Netflix (NFLX) expects to double original content investment in 2014
Said not interested in bidding on live sports programming
Sees very little potential lift from new gaming consoles
CNOOC (CEO) announced successful $700M bid (PBR, RDSA,TOT) for Libra Field in Brazil
TJX (TJX) to raise long-term store growth estimates, raise TJX Europe long-term outlook
Martha Stewart Living (MSO), J.C. Penney (JCP) announced revised partnership agreement
Kohl’s (KSS) reported stores to open on Thanksgiving Day at 8 p.m.

EARNINGS

Companies that beat consensus earnings expectations last night and today include:
CIT Group (CIT), Centene (CNC), DuPont (DD), TAL Education (XRS), Helix Energy (HLX), IDEX Corp. (IEX), Cathay General (CATY), Wilshire Bancorp (WIBC), Texas Instruments (TXN), Hexcel (HXL), W. R. Berkley (WRB), Illumina (ILMN), VMware (VMW), Netflix (NFLX)

Companies that missed consensus earnings expectations include:
Whirlpool (WHR), Novartis (NVS), Rent-A-Center (RCII), PLX Technology (PLXT), Discover (DFS)

Companies that matched consensus earnings expectations include:
Healthstream (HSTM), BancorpSouth (BXS), Forward Air (FWRD), Computer Task Group (CTG), Sonic (SONC)

NEWSPAPERS/WEBSITES

• Options Clearing Corp., that handles all U.S. options trading, was hit with a wide-ranging critique of the way it manages risk and handles compliance, following an examination by the SEC. Regulators found flaws in the way it prepares for market freeze-ups and measures financial risks facing its members,the Wall Street Journal reports
• The next big IPO, from Alibaba Group Holdings (ALBCF), cleared a key hurdle to list its shares in the U.S. The firm received written confirmation from the New York Stock Exchange (NYX) and the Nasdaq (NDAQ) that it could list its shares on those platforms, the Wall Street Journal reports
• PSA Peugeot Citroen (PEUGY) will remain French, Industry Minister Arnaud Montebourg said today, days after sources said the loss-making firm was in talks with China’s Dongfeng and the French government over a capital increase, Reuters reports
• Consumer goods group Reckitt Benckiser (RBGPY) is reviewing options for its pharmaceuticals unit, effectively putting up for sale its prescription medicine for heroin addiction, which faces cheap, copycat competition, Reuters reports
• J.C.Penney (JCP), its shares already under pressure as sales slump, has been forced to fend off anonymous attacks on Twitter. The company has denied two Twitter posts saying it had hired a bankruptcy attorney and had lost access to credit in Canada, Bloomberg reports
• Starbucks (SBUX) wants to apply Web technology to its own operations by networking coffee makers, refrigerators and other appliances. Over the next year, Starbucks said it plans to double the number of its Clover coffee-brewing machines, which connect to the cloud and track customer preferences, Bloomberg reports

SYNDICATE

Guidewire Software (GWRE) files to sell 6.5M shares of common stock
LaSalle Hotel (LHO) files to sell 6.7M shares of common stock
Oxygen Biotherapeutics (OXBT) to issue 3.4M common shares in private placement
Realty Income (O) files to sell 6.5M shares of common stock

ACTIVIST/PASSIVE FILINGS

Coliseum Capital reports 6.1% passive stake in Jamba (JMBA)
Millennium reports 5.1% passive stake in Spectrum (SPPI)
Steadfast Capital reports 5.07% passive stake in Zynga (ZNGA)

 

 

 

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/HKP6is3GkHs/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Overnight global markets have gone decidedly nowhere, in expectation of the long-overdue September payroll report, and seemingly oblivious of the Goldman pre-announcement all clear that “Any positive number will be discounted because it came before the DC theatrics and if it’s weak it confirms that tapering should be put off longer.” In other words, both the September, and accompanying July and August revisions (recall it was the revisions where the August NFP number ended the FOMC’s taper talk) are meaningless because everything will be spun bullish. For those who do care – mostly headline reacting HFT algos – here is the summary: consensus is for 180k (unemployment rate unchanged at 7.3%). Note that the survey period for today’s payrolls report was prior to the shutdown which started on October 1st. As for how the amusingly named “market” will react to the news: see Goldman quote above, or better yet: just call the NYFed trading desk.

On today’s docket there isn’t much else on the calendar aside from the US payroll report which is due at 8:30 am Eastern. It’s a busy day for corporate earnings as 30 S&P500 constituents report today with names like Lockheed Martin (before market). The Richmond Fed manufacturing survey and construction spending are the other data releases of note.

Overnight bulletin summary from BBG and Ran

• The September nonfarm payrolls report will be released today, eleven days later than originally scheduled, after a bipartisan agreement was reached to reopen the US government.
• Estimates range from 100k to 256k; A payrolls number of 175k  or less, supported by “flabby” earnings/hours worked and August revised lower by 25k or more, would drive the biggest rally in Treasuries, FTN strategist Jim Vogel wrote in a note yesterday
• According to policy adviser, China’s central bank may tighten policy slightly in response to rising inflation.
• Barclays cut Japan Q3 GDP forecast to an annual +0.3% from +2.2% citing sluggish Japan consumption and exports.
• Britain’s budget deficit narrowed more than economists forecast in September as the housing-market recovery boosted stamp duty and rising spending lifted value-added tax
• Home prices in China’s four major cities jumped the most since January 2011, heightening concerns a bubble is forming as  the government refrains from introducing more property curbs that would hinder economic growth
• Bank of America Corp., sued by U.S. attorneys in August over an $850m mortgage bond, faces three additional Justice Department civil probes over MBS, according to two people with direct knowledge of the situation
• The frantic weeks before the start of Obamacare were marked by a chaotic effort in which officials failed to complete exhaustive testing of the program’s website in a push to begin signups by Oct. 1, according to people involved  in the rollout
• Obama sought to reassure French President Francois Hollande about the countries’ relations after a report that the NSA eavesdropped on millions of phone calls inside France
• Sovereign yields mostly lower, EU peripheral spreads narrow. Asian equities mixed, Nikkei gains 0.1%; European markets and U.S. equity-index futures little changed. WTI crude and gold lower, copper gains

Market Re-Cap from RanSquawk

Even though stocks traded lower in Europe this morning ahead of the release of the delayed jobs report by the BLS, both EUR/CHF and USD/JPY remained bid, underpinning the view that the release is unlikely to have a meaningful impact on the market direction when released later on in the session. A similar view was also echoed by analysts at GS, who believe that any positive number will be discounted because it came before the DC theatrics and if it’s weak it confirms that tapering should be put off longer. The cautious sentiment, together with decent earnings from Novartis meant that the more defensive equity sectors outperformed, which also resulted in the SMI outperforming its EU peers. Going forward, apart from awaiting the release of the jobs report, market participants will also get to digest more corporate updates, with around 30 S&P 500 constituents reporting today.

Asian Headlines

Barclays cut Japan Q3 GDP forecast to an annual +0.3% from +2.2% citing sluggish Japan consumption and exports.

Barclays also forecast Japan’s growth to rise at an annual 3.7% in Q4.

According to policy adviser, China’s central bank may tighten policy slightly in response to rising inflation.

Also added that China’s central bank will rely on money market liquidity adjustments to tighten policy and China’s economy likely to grow 7.5% in Q4, 7.6% in 2013, China’s annual inflation may be 3.1% in Q4, no sharp rises expected.

EU & UK Headlines

BoE’s Bean said that the fact that UK yield curve has steepened far less recently than past recoveries would suggest, may indicate that forward guidance has some effect on short end.

Separately, BoE’s Tucker said that forward guidance means BoE wont commit to stimulus exit prematurely when there is still slack in economy

UK PSNB ex interventions (Sep) M/M 11.1ln vs. Exp. 11.3bln (Prev. 13.2bln, Rev. 12.5bln)
– UK Public Finances (PSNCR) (Sep) M/M -0.6bln vs. Exp. 8.2bln (Prev. -3.0bln, Rev. -2.7bln)
– UK Public Sector Net Borrwing (Sep) M/M 9.4bln vs. Exp. 10.0bln (Prev. 11.5bln, Rev. 10.8bln)
– UK PSNB ex Royal Mail, APF (Sep) M/M 11.1bln vs. Exp. 11.5bln (Prev. 13.2bln, Rev. 12.5bln)

Bunds traded steady this morning, as market participants remained on the sidelines ahead of the release of the jobs report from the BLS. There was also distinct lack of supply, with only Spanish Treasury selling just over EUR 3.5bln in 3- and 9-Month T-Bills, while the 7y EFSF issue was set at EUR 6bln and MS+20bps area.

Separately, the DMO from the UK set the size of the upcoming 2068 Gilt tap at GBP 4.5bln and final spread at +2.5bps over 2060 Gilt.

ECB’s Coene says further drop in inflation might warrant policy action, but too early now.

German government to keep their growth forecast for 2013 at 0.5%, raise forecast for 2014 to 1.7% from 1.6%, according to a source.

US Headlines

Apart from digesting the release of the delayed jobs report, market participants will also await the release of the latest Richmond Fed manufacturing survey and construction spending data.

Equities

Stocks traded steady in Europe, albeit in minor negative territory, and health care sector outperforming as market participants awaited the release of the delayed NFP report. SMI outperformed, with Novartis leading the move higher following an encouraging earnings report pre-market. Also, despite lower commodity prices, the FTSE-100 index also traded higher, with BHP Billiton among the best performing stocks after the company raised FY14 iron ore guidance to 212mln tonnes and maintained FY14 production guidance for petroleum, copper and coal.

FX

Even though USD/JPY implied vols traded heavy ahead of the major risk event (NFP report from the US), the spot rate remained bid and tested the 100DMA line at 98.41. Move above will see the pair target the 50DMA line which is located just above at 98.47.

Looking elsewhere, despite softer commodity prices, AUD/USD trended higher and traded close to its highest levels since mid-June, after BHP Billiton raised its production forecast for iron ore. Technically, major technical resistance level is seen at the 200DMA line at 0.9753.

Commodities

According to Energy Aspects, Asia have paused imports of crude, following expectations
that Iraqi production is to resume following maintenance shutdowns.

In order for China to win a waiver on US sanctions regarding Tehran’s nuclear programme, the nation will need to make huge cuts to its Iranian oil imports. In other news for China, the countries winter gas supply shortfall may rise to as much as 10%.

BMO revises up 2014 gold forecast from USD 1,181 to USD 1,275 and silver from USD 18 to USD 21.

BHP Billiton raised FY14 iron ore guidance to 212mln tonnes and maintained FY14 production guidance for petroleum, copper and coal.

China platinum jewellery demand is seen reaching a record this year, with demand climbing to 2.1mln oz, according to ETF Securities Director of Research Mike McGlone.

* * *

Deutsche completes the overnight event narrative and summarizes what to expect today:

As regular readers will know we have long thought that tapering is going to be incredibly slow paced and probably now not starting until March 2014 at the earliest (fast becoming consensus). As such we continue to believe most assets will stay at elevated valuations and probably get more expensive over the coming few months on liquidity reasons alone. However even if we end up being correct there can always be much volatility around the market’s perception of the timing of the taper and short-term reversals are easily possible. Days like today could swing markets back to pricing earlier tapering if the number is decent. Our base case is for a sluggish sub-200k pace of payroll gains over the next few months but one thing that keeps us vigilant on thisview is that seasonals often turn more positive from this point in the calendar. The three summer months tend to have depressed payroll numbers and its possible the soggy numbers seen this summer were just another manifestation of this. There’s almost no way of proving this but it’s possible that history repeats itself and that payrolls end the year more buoyant than we expect. So notwithstanding the likely distortions coming up in future reports from the shutdown, today’s number will provide some clues as to whether there has been any seasonal bias in 2013. The ADP report for September we saw nearly 3 weeks ago argues against this though as it came in at a tepid +166k. So we’re not basing our view on the seasonals but will feel more comfortable with our very slow tapering view through 2014 once we see a continuation of the slow job growth post the summer.

Indeed yesterday the Fed’s Charles Evans, one of the more dovish members of the FOMC, commented to the effect that the Fed will likely delay tapering for at least a few months. Evans mentioned that the hurdles for tapering included “a couple of good labor reports and evidence of increasing GDP growth” which is “probably going to take a few months to sort out”. Evans also pretty much ruled out a move at this month’s FOMC which clearly isn’t a surprise.

Yesterday’s US home sales data also argued against an imminent taper. Existing home sales declined 1.9% to an annual seasonally adjusted rates of 5.29M. The prior month’s print of 5.48M was revised lower to 5.39M as well. The National Association of Realtors mentioned that housing affordability has fallen to a five year low as a result of rising rates and house prices.

Risk appetite is very much in consolidation mode in overnight markets following on from yesterday where the S&P500 (+0.01%) managed to eke out the smallest of gains. Volumes are low across the board with most investors content to stay on the sidelines ahead of today’s NFP. The Hang Seng (-0.48%) and Chinese A-shares (-0.6%) are the overnight laggards in Asia after the latest Chinese home price data showed that prices increased in 69 out 70 major cities. There were 20%+ yoy price increases in a number of cities while prices rose 16% and 17% in Beijing and Shanghai respectively. The data is adding further policy risk to the Chinese real estate and construction sector. On the micro-side there has been some talk that Apple Inc is preparing a 55-inch and 65-inch ztelevision for sale from Q3 2014 (Source: Bloomberg). This comes ahead of the company’s product event today which some are expecting will be used to unveil a suite of updates and new products. Apple’s stock was up 2.5% yesterday and a number of digital display companies in Asia are outperforming overnight. Other equity indices such as the Nikkei (+0.05%) and ASX200 (+0.4%) are marginally firmer, the latter by mining giant BHP who raised their full year iron ore production target. On the fixed income side, 10yr UST yields are unchanged at 2.60% and Asian credit spreads are 1-2bp wider amid some position squaring ahead of the event risks later today.

Looking ahead to today, there isn’t much else on the data calendar aside from the US payroll report which is due at 1:30pm London time. It’s a busy day for corporate earnings as 30 S&P500 constituents report today with names like Lockheed Martin (before market) interesting from a macro perspective. The Richmond Fed manufacturing survey and construction spending are the other data releases of note.
 

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/b-PmNT9oPa4/story01.htm Tyler Durden

China’s attempts to curb runaway inflation in its housing market – which in a country in which the relatively young capital markets lack the breadth and depth of their western equivalents remains the only venue in which to park any of the excess cash generated from the global central bank liquidity avalanche – continue to be met with failure after failure. Overnight, the China Statistics Bureau reported that in September new home price across the country’s 70 tracked cities, rose in virtually all of them, or 69 compared to a year ago. On a monthly basis, or compared to August, new home prices rose in only 65 of China’s cities, compared to 66 in the month prior. And while the CSB data differs from the Shanghai Uwin data reported yesterday, the government’s data while less stunning still shows the extent of the Chinese housing bubble and the persistent inflation plaguing the country: Beijing new home prices rose 1% M/m; and 16% Y/y; Shanghai new home prices rose 1.4% M/m; and 17% Y/y in September.

More from SocGen’s Wei Yao:

China’s home prices continued to rise in most major cities in September, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. Out of the 70 cities monitored by the National Bureau of Statistics, 65 saw new home prices rise month on month, one fewer than in August but still close to record highs. On average, prices of new residential apartments increased 0.67% mom (8.4% annualised), slowing from 0.79% mom in the previous month; while prices of second-hand properties increased 0.42% mom in September, compared with 0.35% mom in August.

 

Moreover, housing inflation in first-tier cities – referring to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen – remained much stronger than in smaller cities, with the average gain of new flat prices in those cities nearly twice the pace of others.

 

 

The housing activity data released earlier indicated strengthening property construction. Growth of housing starts surged to +41.3% yoy in September from -20.1% yoy in August, partly thanks to a base effect. The quarterly growth rate of starts quickened to 14.9% yoy in Q3 from 8.8% yoy in Q2. However, sales volume growth decelerated to 21.2% yoy from 32.4% yoy and real estate investment also grew slower in Q3 at 18.9% yoy, compared with 20.4% yoy in Q2. In addition to much higher statistical bases, the downward trends in sales and investment – at least in yoy terms – point to weakening in housing start growth in the coming quarters. Hence, the under-supply situation in big cities is unlikely to change inthe near term.

 

 

In terms of policy, we see no grand tightening in the offing, except that banks are extending fewer mortgages. Long-term solutions, such as property taxes, land reform and sustainable funding sources for affordable housing, are still slow to come.

 

And to think how much ink was spilled over the summer when the PBOC announced that, in an attempt to be prudent and to cool the housing market, it would “taper” the market liquidity by CNY1 trillion… nearly leading to the collapse of the banking system. Funny how just like at the Fed, that whole idea was quickly buried without anything as much as a peep. 

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/4QwgaNRyXzw/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Submitted by Peter Schiff via Euro Pacific Capital,

It is rare that investors are given a road map. It is rarer still that the vast majority of those who get it are unable to understand the clear signs and directions it contains. When this happens the few who can actually read the map find themselves in an enviable position. Such is currently the case with gold and gold-related investments. 

The common wisdom on Wall Street is that gold has seen the moment of its greatness flicker. This confidence has been fueled by three beliefs:  A) the Fed will soon begin trimming its monthly purchases of Treasury and Mortgage Backed Securities (commonly called the "taper"), B) the growing strength of the U.S. economy is creating investment opportunities that will cause people to dump defensive assets like gold, and C) the renewed confidence in the U.S. economy will shore up the dollar and severely diminish gold's allure as a safe haven. All three of these assumptions are false. (Our new edition of the Global Investor Newsletter explores how the attraction never dimmed in India).  

Recent developments suggest the opposite, that:

A) the Fed has no exit strategy and is more likely to expand its QE program than diminish it,

 

B) the U. S. economy is stuck in below-trend growth and possibly headed for another recession

 

C) America's refusal to deal with its fiscal problems will undermine international faith in the dollar.

Parallel confusion can be found in Wall Street's reaction to the debt ceiling drama (for more on this see my prior commentary on the Debt Ceiling Delusions). Many had concluded that the danger was that Congress would fail to raise the ceiling. But the real peril was that it would be raised without any mitigating effort to get in front of our debt problems. Of course, that is just what happened.

These errors can be seen most clearly in the gold market. Last week, Goldman Sachs, the 800-pound gorilla of Wall Street, issued a research report that many read as gold's obituary.The report declared that any kind of agreement in Washington that would forestall an immediate debt default, and defuse the crisis, would be a "slam dunk sell" for gold. Given that most people never believed Congress would really force the issue, the Goldman final note to its report initiated a panic selling in gold. Of course, just as I stated on numerous radio and television appearances in the day or so following the Goldman report, the "smartest guys in the room" turned out to be wrong. As soon as Congress agreed to kick the can, gold futures climbed $40 in one day.

Experts also warned that the dollar would decline if the debt ceiling was not raised. But when it was raised (actually it was suspended completely until February 2014) the dollar immediately sold off to a 8 ½ month low against the euro. Ironically many feared that failing to raise the debt ceiling would threaten the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency. In reality, it's the continued lifting of that ceiling that is undermining its credibility.

The markets were similarly wrong-footed last month when the "The Taper That Wasn't" caught everyone by surprise. The shock stemmed from Wall Street's belief in the Fed's false bravado and the conclusions of mainstream economists that the economy was improving. I countered by saying that the signs of improvement (most notably rising stock and real estate prices) were simply the direct results of the QE itself and that a removal of the QE would stop the "recovery" dead in its tracks. Despite the Fed surprise, most people still believe that it is itching to pull the taper trigger and that it will do so at its earliest opportunity (although many now concede that it may have to wait until this political mess is resolved). In contrast, I believe we are now stuck in a trap of infinite QE (which is the theme of my Newsletter issued last week).

The reality is that Washington has now committed itself to a policy of permanent debt increase and QE infinity that can only possibly end in one way: a currency crisis. While the dollar's status as reserve currency, and America's position as both the world's largest economy and its largest debtor, will create a difficult and unpredictable path towards that destination, the ultimate arrival can't be doubted. The fact that few investors are drawing these conclusions has allowed gold, and precious metal mining stocks, to remain close to multi year lows, even while these recent developments should be signaling otherwise. This creates an opportunity.

Gold moved from $300 to $1,800 not because investors believed the government would hold the line on debt, but because they believed that the U.S. fiscal position would get progressively worse. That is what happened this week. By deciding to once again kick the can down the road, Washington did not avoid a debt crisis. They simply delayed it. That is why I tried to inform investors that gold should rally if the debt limit were raised.Instead most investors put their faith in Goldman Sachs. 

Investors should be concluding that America will never deal with its fiscal problems on its own terms. In fact, since we have now redefined the problem as the debt ceiling, rather than the debt itself, all efforts to solve the real problem may be cast aside. It now falls on our nation's creditors to provide the badly needed financial discipline that our own elected leaders lack the courage to face. That discipline will take the form of a dollar crisis, which will morph into a sovereign debt crisis. This would send U.S. consumer prices soaring, push the economy deeper into recession, and exert massive upward pressure on U.S. interest rates. At that point the Fed will have a very difficult decision to make: vastly expand QE to buy up all the bonds that the world is trying to unload (which could crash the dollar), or to allow bonds to fall and interest rates to soar (thereby crashing the economy instead).

The hard choices that our leaders have just avoided will have to be made someday under far more burdensome circumstances. It will have to choose which promises to keep and which to break. Much of the government will be shut down, this time for real. If the Fed does the wrong thing and expands QE to keep rates low, the ensuing dollar collapse will be even more damaging to our economy and our creditors. Sure, none of the promises will be technically broken, but they will be rendered meaningless, as the bills will be paid with nearly worthless money. 

In fact, the Chinese may finally be getting the message. Late last week, as the debt ceiling farce gathered steam in Washington, China's state-run news agency issued perhaps its most dire warning to date on the subject: "it is perhaps a good time for the befuddled world to start considering building a de-Americanized world." Sometimes maps can be very easy to read. If the dollar is doomed, gold should rise.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/ln4gmIEcVME/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Submitted by Peter Schiff via Euro Pacific Capital,

It is rare that investors are given a road map. It is rarer still that the vast majority of those who get it are unable to understand the clear signs and directions it contains. When this happens the few who can actually read the map find themselves in an enviable position. Such is currently the case with gold and gold-related investments. 

The common wisdom on Wall Street is that gold has seen the moment of its greatness flicker. This confidence has been fueled by three beliefs:  A) the Fed will soon begin trimming its monthly purchases of Treasury and Mortgage Backed Securities (commonly called the "taper"), B) the growing strength of the U.S. economy is creating investment opportunities that will cause people to dump defensive assets like gold, and C) the renewed confidence in the U.S. economy will shore up the dollar and severely diminish gold's allure as a safe haven. All three of these assumptions are false. (Our new edition of the Global Investor Newsletter explores how the attraction never dimmed in India).  

Recent developments suggest the opposite, that:

A) the Fed has no exit strategy and is more likely to expand its QE program than diminish it,

 

B) the U. S. economy is stuck in below-trend growth and possibly headed for another recession

 

C) America's refusal to deal with its fiscal problems will undermine international faith in the dollar.

Parallel confusion can be found in Wall Street's reaction to the debt ceiling drama (for more on this see my prior commentary on the Debt Ceiling Delusions). Many had concluded that the danger was that Congress would fail to raise the ceiling. But the real peril was that it would be raised without any mitigating effort to get in front of our debt problems. Of course, that is just what happened.

These errors can be seen most clearly in the gold market. Last week, Goldman Sachs, the 800-pound gorilla of Wall Street, issued a research report that many read as gold's obituary.The report declared that any kind of agreement in Washington that would forestall an immediate debt default, and defuse the crisis, would be a "slam dunk sell" for gold. Given that most people never believed Congress would really force the issue, the Goldman final note to its report initiated a panic selling in gold. Of course, just as I stated on numerous radio and television appearances in the day or so following the Goldman report, the "smartest guys in the room" turned out to be wrong. As soon as Congress agreed to kick the can, gold futures climbed $40 in one day.

Experts also warned that the dollar would decline if the debt ceiling was not raised. But when it was raised (actually it was suspended completely until February 2014) the dollar immediately sold off to a 8 ½ month low against the euro. Ironically many feared that failing to raise the debt ceiling would threaten the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency. In reality, it's the continued lifting of that ceiling that is undermining its credibility.

The markets were similarly wrong-footed last month when the "The Taper That Wasn't" caught everyone by surprise. The shock stemmed from Wall Street's belief in the Fed's false bravado and the conclusions of mainstream economists that the economy was improving. I countered by saying that the signs of improvement (most notably rising stock and real estate prices) were simply the direct results of the QE itself and that a removal of the QE would stop the "recovery" dead in its tracks. Despite the Fed surprise, most people still believe that it is itching to pull the taper trigger and that it will do so at its earliest opportunity (although many now concede that it may have to wait until this political mess is resolved). In contrast, I believe we are now stuck in a trap of infinite QE (which is the theme of my Newsletter issued last week).

The reality is that Washington has now committed itself to a policy of permanent debt increase and QE infinity that can only possibly end in one way: a currency crisis. While the dollar's status as reserve currency, and America's position as both the world's largest economy and its largest debtor, will create a difficult and unpredictable path towards that destination, the ultimate arrival can't be doubted. The fact that few investors are drawing these conclusions has allowed gold, and precious metal mining stocks, to remain close to multi year lows, even while these recent developments should be signaling otherwise. This creates an opportunity.

Gold moved from $300 to $1,800 not because investors believed the government would hold the line on debt, but because they believed that the U.S. fiscal position would get progressively worse. That is what happened this week. By deciding to once again kick the can down the road, Washington did not avoid a debt crisis. They simply delayed it. That is why I tried to inform investors that gold should rally if the debt limit were raised.Instead most investors put their faith in Goldman Sachs. 

Investors should be concluding that America will never deal with its fiscal problems on its own terms. In fact, since we have now redefined the problem as the debt ceiling, rather than the debt itself, all efforts to solve the real problem may be cast aside. It now falls on our nation's creditors to provide the badly needed financial discipline that our own elected leaders lack the courage to face. That discipline will take the form of a dollar crisis, which will morph into a sovereign debt crisis. This would send U.S. consumer prices soaring, push the economy deeper into recession, and exert massive upward pressure on U.S. interest rates. At that point the Fed will have a very difficult decision to make: vastly expand QE to buy up all the bonds that the world is trying to unload (which could crash the dollar), or to allow bonds to fall and interest rates to soar (thereby crashing the economy instead).

The hard choices that our leaders have just avoided will have to be made someday under far more burdensome circumstances. It will have to choose which promises to keep and which to break. Much of the government will be shut down, this time for real. If the Fed does the wrong thing and expands QE to keep rates low, the ensuing dollar collapse will be even more damaging to our economy and our creditors. Sure, none of the promises will be technically broken, but they will be rendered meaningless, as the bills will be paid with nearly worthless money. 

In fact, the Chinese may finally be getting the message. Late last week, as the debt ceiling farce gathered steam in Washington, China's state-run news agency issued perhaps its most dire warning to date on the subject: "it is perhaps a good time for the befuddled world to start considering building a de-Americanized world." Sometimes maps can be very easy to read. If the dollar is doomed, gold should rise.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/ln4gmIEcVME/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Submitted by Rory Johnson via OilPrice.com,

Last month the world witnessed a paradigm shift: China surpassed the United States as the world’s largest consumer of foreign oil, importing 6.3 million barrels per day compared to the United States’ 6.24 million. This trend is likely to continue and this gap is likely to grow, according to the EIA’s October short-term energy outlook. Wood Mackenzie, a leading global energy consultancy, echoed this prediction, estimating Chinese oil imports will rise to 9.2 million barrels per day (70% of total demand) by 2020.

This trend has been driven by a combination of factors. Booming American oil production, slow post-recovery growth, and increasing vehicle efficiency have all served to reduce crude imports. In China, however, continued economic growth has brought with it a growing middle class eager to take to the road. While the automobile market had cooled earlier this year, September saw sales rise by 21%—a trend that is putting increasing strain on China’s infrastructure and air quality in addition to oil demand.

Some of the world’s largest traffic jams are now commonplace in major Chinese cities, and air quality issues have pushed authorities to pursue synthetic natural gas technology to offset the need for coal-fired electricity. Increasing oil consumption will only serve to exacerbate these issues.

Furthermore, the per capita consumption differential between the two countries is still vast, with an average Chinese citizen consuming a mere 2.9 barrels of oil per year compared to an average American who consumes 21.5. This indicates that China’s growing thirst for oil isn’t going to slow down anytime soon.

So what does this shift in oil imports mean?

More than anything else, it is a sign that China will increasingly depend on global markets to satisfy its ever-growing oil demand. This necessitates further engagement with the international system to protect its interests, encouraging a fuller integration with the current liberal order. This will have effects on both China’s approach to its currency and its diplomatic demeanour.  

Derek Scissors wrote last week that this shift might usher in a world where oil is priced in RMB as opposed to solely in USD. This transition could only occur, however, if the RMB was made fully convertible and Beijing steps back from its current policy of exchange rate manipulation. Earlier this year, HSBC predicted that the RMB would be fully convertible by 2017, a reality that is surely hastened by its position as the single largest purchaser of foreign oil. A fully convertible RMB would be a “key step in pushing it as a reserve currency and enhancing its use in global trade, said Sacha Tihanyi, a strategist at Scotia Capital.

On the diplomatic side, while the United States is unlikely to withdraw from its role as defender of global oil production or guarantor of shipping routes, an increasing reliance on foreign oil will push Beijing toward a more engaged role within the international community. It is likely that we will see a change in Beijing’s approach to international intervention and future participation in multilateral counterterrorism initiatives—anything to ensure global stability. In the future, anything that destabilizes the oil market will increasingly harm China more than the United States. While Beijing views this increased import reliance as a strategic weakness, it a boon for those hoping to see Beijing grow into its role as a global leader.

Bottom line: as Chinese oil imports grow, Beijing will become increasingly reliant on the current market-oriented global system—this is nothing but good news for those that enjoy the status quo.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/Maf0CLqIXuw/story01.htm Tyler Durden