Tag: news

While the heads of many investors are spinning these days – because of the record levels of the markets on the one hand, and the explosive evolution of bitcoins on the other hand – they are losing sight of the most important development in monetary history. A woman is about to take the lead of the most powerful central bank in the world. For many market watchers, this development can be considered a blessing for the financial markets. Finally some peace in the financial household!

Alas. We will need to disappoint you. Yellen was and is the right hand of Bernanke. Even more, she was at the root of some of the more unconventional measures taken by the central banker when the financial crisis hit in 2008. Lowering the short-term interest rates to almost zero percent, for example, or buying back government and real estate debt from banks, better known as ‘Quantitative Easing’. Those measures were put in place to make sure the United States’ impressive mountain of debt didn’t implode under its own pressure. The goal was to avoid a depression like the one we experienced in the 1930s, but the core of the problem – the debt burden – has not been dealt with. The problem was displaced … to the Fed’s balance sheet.

The above chart, the Fed’s monetary base, screams more than a thousand words. And although Bernanke carries the responsibility, it is mostly Janet Yellen that delivered this result. If you look closely at the chart, by the way, you will see that the Fed’s balance sheet is blowing up fast. This is the result of the new, goal-oriented QE: the Fed will only tighten its monetary policy when certain goals are met. At this point, these goals mainly include an unemployment level below 6.5% and inflation to be above 2%. As long as neither of them are reached, the Fed is not going to stop its accommodative policies. Even tempering QE (tapering), which is something that a lot of market watchers pointed out as a possibility in recent months, would not be on the agenda.

Even more, we are expecting the buyback program to pick up speed more than anything else. Not only is the Fed not attaining its current targets, but also the market is going to test Janet Yellen in 2014. Most newcomers to the job of Chairman of the Fed have to go through this. However, 2014 is going to be a more turbulent year than 2013 as well. More volatility in combination with (strong) corrections will push the leading lady of the Fed out of her comfort zone.

Although she will be new to the job, Janet Yellen will surely stand her ground. The expected reaction from the Fed’s top exec could bring a whole new dimension to the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve. Janet Yellen was not afraid to color outside the lines in her proposals already. So there is no doubt in our minds that she will continue to do so when it is necessary. And what might that look like? Well, it has been described in many studies that extreme conditions sometimes call for extreme measures. A stock market crash can be moderated by direct purchases from the Fed, for example. In the United States this is still considered as an extreme measure, but in Japan, the central bank is already applying this tactic to the financial markets for months through supporting and buying listed stocks and ETF’s.

Another measure we are reading more and more about these days is the negative deposit rate. If the Fed would implement this, banks would be forced to make their reserves work for them, and pump excess capital into society through new loans and financing. However, the banks are not excited to do this of course. They are still licking their wounds and quite comfortable in their current position – borrowing at almost zero percent and investing in risk free government bonds with an interest rate of a few percent. Yellen will probably not change a lot about this situation, however. Many people forget the shareholders of the Fed are private banks in the US, not the government as is the case in Europe.

Finally, there remains the direct injection of money into the economy by the Federal Reserve. The image of Bernanke’s helicopter, with which he has been associated for the last few years; figuratively dropping dollar bills from helicopters, referring to a statement from Milton Friedman. This means that citizens are literally being rewarded to stimulate the economy. Now they are pumping fresh dollars into the banks, but those dollars are not going anywhere (for now), which causes a delay in the economic impact. If the people, however, got the money directly, the possibility of spending and stimulating the economy increases. It wouldn’t surprise us if Yellen takes monetary policy to that level, as she has always been in favor of giving a voice to the people. This would not be a United States first, however, as former president George W. Bush gave every American family a check after the crisis.

Ultimately, Janet Yellen can be considered a champion of accommodative monetary policies aimed at avoiding another economic depression. All necessary means will justify the cause. While Bernanke is considered more as a conservative dove always trying to keep all parties satisfied, Yellen comes across as a more decisive dove that wants to shine in the monetary arena during her term. So please hold on for unconventional and new measures from the Fed. The other side of the coin, however, is that these measures will sooner or later get out of hand, with the necessary consequences for the financial markets and your capital. Please take timely precautions when it comes to reckless monetary measures and policies.

Prepare & Download Sprout Money’s Free Guide to Gold

 

Sprout Money offers a fresh look at investing. We analyze long
lasting cycles, coupled with a collection of strategic investments and
concrete tips for different types of assets. The methods and strategies
from Sprout Money are transformed into the Gold & Silver Report and the Technology Report.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/dn97U4roQqc/story01.htm Sprout Money

While the heads of many investors are spinning these days – because of the record levels of the markets on the one hand, and the explosive evolution of bitcoins on the other hand – they are losing sight of the most important development in monetary history. A woman is about to take the lead of the most powerful central bank in the world. For many market watchers, this development can be considered a blessing for the financial markets. Finally some peace in the financial household!

Alas. We will need to disappoint you. Yellen was and is the right hand of Bernanke. Even more, she was at the root of some of the more unconventional measures taken by the central banker when the financial crisis hit in 2008. Lowering the short-term interest rates to almost zero percent, for example, or buying back government and real estate debt from banks, better known as ‘Quantitative Easing’. Those measures were put in place to make sure the United States’ impressive mountain of debt didn’t implode under its own pressure. The goal was to avoid a depression like the one we experienced in the 1930s, but the core of the problem – the debt burden – has not been dealt with. The problem was displaced … to the Fed’s balance sheet.

The above chart, the Fed’s monetary base, screams more than a thousand words. And although Bernanke carries the responsibility, it is mostly Janet Yellen that delivered this result. If you look closely at the chart, by the way, you will see that the Fed’s balance sheet is blowing up fast. This is the result of the new, goal-oriented QE: the Fed will only tighten its monetary policy when certain goals are met. At this point, these goals mainly include an unemployment level below 6.5% and inflation to be above 2%. As long as neither of them are reached, the Fed is not going to stop its accommodative policies. Even tempering QE (tapering), which is something that a lot of market watchers pointed out as a possibility in recent months, would not be on the agenda.

Even more, we are expecting the buyback program to pick up speed more than anything else. Not only is the Fed not attaining its current targets, but also the market is going to test Janet Yellen in 2014. Most newcomers to the job of Chairman of the Fed have to go through this. However, 2014 is going to be a more turbulent year than 2013 as well. More volatility in combination with (strong) corrections will push the leading lady of the Fed out of her comfort zone.

Although she will be new to the job, Janet Yellen will surely stand her ground. The expected reaction from the Fed’s top exec could bring a whole new dimension to the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve. Janet Yellen was not afraid to color outside the lines in her proposals already. So there is no doubt in our minds that she will continue to do so when it is necessary. And what might that look like? Well, it has been described in many studies that extreme conditions sometimes call for extreme measures. A stock market crash can be moderated by direct purchases from the Fed, for example. In the United States this is still considered as an extreme measure, but in Japan, the central bank is already applying this tactic to the financial markets for months through supporting and buying listed stocks and ETF’s.

Another measure we are reading more and more about these days is the negative deposit rate. If the Fed would implement this, banks would be forced to make their reserves work for them, and pump excess capital into society through new loans and financing. However, the banks are not excited to do this of course. They are still licking their wounds and quite comfortable in their current position – borrowing at almost zero percent and investing in risk free government bonds with an interest rate of a few percent. Yellen will probably not change a lot about this situation, however. Many people forget the shareholders of the Fed are private banks in the US, not the government as is the case in Europe.

Finally, there remains the direct injection of money into the economy by the Federal Reserve. The image of Bernanke’s helicopter, with which he has been associated for the last few years; figuratively dropping dollar bills from helicopters, referring to a statement from Milton Friedman. This means that citizens are literally being rewarded to stimulate the economy. Now they are pumping fresh dollars into the banks, but those dollars are not going anywhere (for now), which causes a delay in the economic impact. If the people, however, got the money directly, the possibility of spending and stimulating the economy increases. It wouldn’t surprise us if Yellen takes monetary policy to that level, as she has always been in favor of giving a voice to the people. This would not be a United States first, however, as former president George W. Bush gave every American family a check after the crisis.

Ultimately, Janet Yellen can be considered a champion of accommodative monetary policies aimed at avoiding another economic depression. All necessary means will justify the cause. While Bernanke is considered more as a conservative dove always trying to keep all parties satisfied, Yellen comes across as a more decisive dove that wants to shine in the monetary arena during her term. So please hold on for unconventional and new measures from the Fed. The other side of the coin, however, is that these measures will sooner or later get out of hand, with the necessary consequences for the financial markets and your capital. Please take timely precautions when it comes to reckless monetary measures and policies.

Prepare & Download Sprout Money’s Free Guide to Gold

 

Sprout Money offers a fresh look at investing. We analyze long
lasting cycles, coupled with a collection of strategic investments and
concrete tips for different types of assets. The methods and strategies
from Sprout Money are transformed into the Gold & Silver Report and the Technology Report.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/dn97U4roQqc/story01.htm Sprout Money

Now that Athens’ Syntagma square has been put on indefinite hiatus since everyone has finally figured out the game between Greece and Athens (Greece grudgingly promises to reform but doesn’t, at the same time Troika grudgingly threatens to cut off funding for Greece unless reforms are implemented but doesn’t… even as the fate of the people gets worse), a new square has emerged as the focal point in the fight for (and against) Europe – Kiev’s Independence Square.

However, unlike in Syntagma square where the people were largely against Europe due to its demands for Greek reforms, in the Ukraine, the people who amass at the country’s biggest square are instead demanding that the country return to Europe’s sphere of influence and tear away from Russian gravity where the country recently found itself gravitating toward as reported previously. If in the process the government of president Yanukovich can be overthrown so much the better.

Which is why following two weeks of escalating protests, today is the latest day in which tens if not hundreds of thousands of people are expected to come down to Independence Square, where Ukraine’s opposition leaders urged hundreds of thousands of pro-Europe protesters at a rally on Sunday to keep up pressure on President Viktor Yanukovich to sack his government and drop plans for closer ties with Russia.

Independence Square has been transformed into a makeshift village of tents, festooned with Ukrainian blue and yellow flags, EU flags and opposition banners, beneath a large television screen. People huddle around braziers for warmth.

The live webcast from Kiev can be found below:

Live streaming video by Ustream

More from Reuters:

The protesters, gathered on Kiev’s Independence Square, are furious with the Yanukovich government for its decision to ditch a landmark pact with the European Union in favour of a trade deal with Moscow, Ukraine’s Soviet-era overlord. Sunday’s rally marks a further escalation in a weeks-long confrontation between authorities and protesters that has raised fears for political and economic stability in the former Soviet republic of 46 million people.

 

“This is a decisive moment when all Ukrainians have gathered here because they do not want to live in a country where corruption rules and where there is no justice,” said world heavyweight boxing champion-turned-politician Vitaly Klitschko.

 

The opposition accuses Yanukovich, who met Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday, of preparing to take Ukraine into a Moscow-led customs union, which they see as an attempt to recreate the Soviet Union.

 

“We are on a razor’s edge between a final plunge into cruel dictatorship and a return home to the European community,” jailed opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko said in an emotional message to the crowd read out by her daughter Yevgenia.

 

“There is a significantly greater chance of ending up in a medieval dictatorship; the choice is in your hands,” said Tymoshenko, Yanukovich’s main rival, who is serving a seven-year jail sentence for abuse of office in a case condemned by the West as politically motivated.

 

* * *

 

The Moscow and Kiev governments have both denied that Putin and Yanukovich discussed the customs union in their talks on Friday in the Russian Black Sea resort of Sochi, but further bilateral talks are planned for Dec. 17.

 

Yanukovich and Putin, who regards Ukraine as strategically vital to Moscow’s own interests, are widely believed to have struck a bargain whereby Ukraine obtains cheaper Russian gas and possibly credits in exchange for backing away from the EU.

What the people demand?

Last weekend, riot police beat protesters and journalists, triggering EU condemnation and swelling the protesters’ ranks. “We do not want to be kept quiet by a policeman’s truncheon,” Klitschko told Sunday’s crowd.

 

He demanded the release of political prisoners, punishment of those responsible for last weekend’s police crackdown, the resignation of Prime Minister Mykola Azarov’s government and early presidential and parliamentary elections. Those camped out on Independence Square have been swelled by huge numbers coming in from Ukrainian-speaking areas of western and central Ukraine, where opposition politicians enjoy strong support.

 

A Tymoshenko ally, former interior minister Yuri Lutsenko, appealed to people in Russian-speaking areas of the east – the bedrock of Yanukovich’s power – to turn out and join the protests. “We are the same people as you are, except that they stole from you earlier,” he said.

And while the Ukraine government has for now been largely tolerant of protests besides the occasional flare out of police brutality, things are finally changing following news from AFP that the country’s security service is launching criminal probes over attempts to “seize power” and that the probe concerns “certain politicians”who the security service says acted illegally. In other words a political crackdown.

#BREAKING Ukraine opens criminal probe over attempts to ‘seize power’: security service

— Agence France-Presse (@AFP) December 8, 2013

In Eastern Europe when such “probes” start flying the result is never good.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/rsdjLFoYcAM/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Now that Athens’ Syntagma square has been put on indefinite hiatus since everyone has finally figured out the game between Greece and Athens (Greece grudgingly promises to reform but doesn’t, at the same time Troika grudgingly threatens to cut off funding for Greece unless reforms are implemented but doesn’t… even as the fate of the people gets worse), a new square has emerged as the focal point in the fight for (and against) Europe – Kiev’s Independence Square.

However, unlike in Syntagma square where the people were largely against Europe due to its demands for Greek reforms, in the Ukraine, the people who amass at the country’s biggest square are instead demanding that the country return to Europe’s sphere of influence and tear away from Russian gravity where the country recently found itself gravitating toward as reported previously. If in the process the government of president Yanukovich can be overthrown so much the better.

Which is why following two weeks of escalating protests, today is the latest day in which tens if not hundreds of thousands of people are expected to come down to Independence Square, where Ukraine’s opposition leaders urged hundreds of thousands of pro-Europe protesters at a rally on Sunday to keep up pressure on President Viktor Yanukovich to sack his government and drop plans for closer ties with Russia.

Independence Square has been transformed into a makeshift village of tents, festooned with Ukrainian blue and yellow flags, EU flags and opposition banners, beneath a large television screen. People huddle around braziers for warmth.

The live webcast from Kiev can be found below:

Live streaming video by Ustream

More from Reuters:

The protesters, gathered on Kiev’s Independence Square, are furious with the Yanukovich government for its decision to ditch a landmark pact with the European Union in favour of a trade deal with Moscow, Ukraine’s Soviet-era overlord. Sunday’s rally marks a further escalation in a weeks-long confrontation between authorities and protesters that has raised fears for political and economic stability in the former Soviet republic of 46 million people.

 

“This is a decisive moment when all Ukrainians have gathered here because they do not want to live in a country where corruption rules and where there is no justice,” said world heavyweight boxing champion-turned-politician Vitaly Klitschko.

 

The opposition accuses Yanukovich, who met Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday, of preparing to take Ukraine into a Moscow-led customs union, which they see as an attempt to recreate the Soviet Union.

 

“We are on a razor’s edge between a final plunge into cruel dictatorship and a return home to the European community,” jailed opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko said in an emotional message to the crowd read out by her daughter Yevgenia.

 

“There is a significantly greater chance of ending up in a medieval dictatorship; the choice is in your hands,” said Tymoshenko, Yanukovich’s main rival, who is serving a seven-year jail sentence for abuse of office in a case condemned by the West as politically motivated.

 

* * *

 

The Moscow and Kiev governments have both denied that Putin and Yanukovich discussed the customs union in their talks on Friday in the Russian Black Sea resort of Sochi, but further bilateral talks are planned for Dec. 17.

 

Yanukovich and Putin, who regards Ukraine as strategically vital to Moscow’s own interests, are widely believed to have struck a bargain whereby Ukraine obtains cheaper Russian gas and possibly credits in exchange for backing away from the EU.

What the people demand?

Last weekend, riot police beat protesters and journalists, triggering EU condemnation and swelling the protesters’ ranks. “We do not want to be kept quiet by a policeman’s truncheon,” Klitschko told Sunday’s crowd.

 

He demanded the release of political prisoners, punishment of those responsible for last weekend’s police crackdown, the resignation of Prime Minister Mykola Azarov’s government and early presidential and parliamentary elections. Those camped out on Independence Square have been swelled by huge numbers coming in from Ukrainian-speaking areas of western and central Ukraine, where opposition politicians enjoy strong support.

 

A Tymoshenko ally, former interior minister Yuri Lutsenko, appealed to people in Russian-speaking areas of the east – the bedrock of Yanukovich’s power – to turn out and join the protests. “We are the same people as you are, except that they stole from you earlier,” he said.

And while the Ukraine government has for now been largely tolerant of protests besides the occasional flare out of police brutality, things are finally changing following news from AFP that the country’s security service is launching criminal probes over attempts to “seize power” and that the probe concerns “certain politicians”who the security service says acted illegally. In other words a political crackdown.

#BREAKING Ukraine opens criminal probe over attempts to ‘seize power’: security service

— Agence France-Presse (@AFP) December 8, 2013

In Eastern Europe when such “probes” start flying the result is never good.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/rsdjLFoYcAM/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Submitted by Andreas Marquart of The Ludwig von Mises Institute,

If one looks at the current paper money system and its negative social and social-political effects, the question must arise: where are the protests by the supporters and protectors of social justice? Why don’t we hear calls to protest from politicians and social commentators, from the heads of social welfare agencies and leading religious leaders, who all promote the general welfare as their mission?

Presumably, the answer is that many have only a weak understanding of the role of money in an economy with a division of labor, and for that reason, the consequences of today’s paper money system are being widely overlooked.

The current system of fractional reserve banking and central banking stands in stark opposition to a market economy monetary regime in which the market participants could decide themselves, without state pressure or coercion, what money they want to use, and in which it would not be possible for anyone to expand the money supply because they simply choose to do so.

The expansion of the money supply, made possible through central banks and fractional reserve banking, is in reality what allows inflation, and thus, declining income in real terms. In The Theory of Money and Credit Ludwig von Mises wrote:

The most important of the causes of a diminution in the value of money of which we have to take account is an increase in the stock of money while the demand for it remains the same, or falls off, or, if it increases, at least increases less than the stock. … A lower subjective valuation of money is then passed on from person to person because those who come into possession of an additional quantity of money are inclined to consent to pay higher prices than before.

When there are price increases caused by an expansion of the money supply, the prices of various goods and services do not rise to the same degree, and do not rise at the same time. Mises explains the effects:

While the process is under way, some people enjoy the benefit of higher prices for the goods or services they sell, while the prices of the things they buy have not yet risen or have not risen to the same extent. On the other hand, there are people who are in the unhappy situation of selling commodities and services whose prices have not yet risen or not in the same degree as the prices of the goods they must buy for their daily consumption.

Indeed, in the case of the price of a worker’s labor (i.e., his or her wages) increasing at a slower rate than the price of bread or rent, we see how this shift in the relationship between income and assets can impoverish many workers and consumers.

An inflationary money supply can cause impoverishment and income inequality in a variety of ways:

 

1. The Cantillon Effect

The uneven distribution of price inflation is known as the Cantillon effect. Those who receive the newly created money first (primarily the state and the banks, but also some large companies) are the beneficiaries of easy money. They can make purchases with the new money at goods prices that are still unchanged. Those who obtain the newly created money only later, or do not receive any of it, are harmed (wage-earners and salaried employees, retirees). They can only buy goods at prices which have, in the meantime, risen.

2. Asset Price Inflation

Investors with greater assets can better spread their investments and assets and are thus in a position to invest in tangible assets such as stocks, real estate, and precious metals. When the prices of those assets rise due to an expansion of the money supply, the holders of those assets may benefit as their assets gain in value. Those holding assets become more wealthy while people with fewer assets or no assets either profit little or cannot profit at all from the price increases.

 

3. The Credit Market Amplifies the Effects

The effects of asset price inflation can be amplified by the credit market. Those who have a higher income can carry higher credit in contrast to those with lower income, by acquiring real estate, for example, or other assets. If real estate prices rise due to an expansion of the money supply, they may profit from those price increases and the gap between rich and poor grows even faster.

4. Boom and Bust Cycles Create Unemployment

The direct cause of unemployment is the inflexibility of the labor market, caused by state interference and labor union pressures. An indirect cause of unemployment is the expansion of the paper money supply, which can lead to illusory economic booms that in turn lead to malinvestment. Especially in inflexible labor markets, when these malinvestments become evident in a down economy, it ultimately leads to higher and more lasting unemployment that is often most severely felt among the lowest-income households.

The State Continues to Expand

Once the gap in income distribution and asset distribution has been opened, the supporters and protectors of social justice will more and more speak out, not knowing (or not saying) that it is the state itself with its monopolistic monetary system that is responsible for the conditions described.

It’s a perfidious “business model” in which the state creates social inequality through its monopolistic monetary system, splits society into poor and rich, and makes people dependent on welfare. It then intervenes in a regulatory and distributive manner, in order to justify its existence. The economist Roland Baader observed:

The political caste must prove its right to exist, by doing something. However, because everything it does, it does much worse, it has to constantly carry out reforms, i.e., it has to do something, because it did something already. It would not have to do something, had it not already done something. If only one knew what one could do to stop it from doing things.

The state even exploits the uncertainty in the population about the true reasons for the growing gap in income and asset distribution. For example, The Fourth Poverty and Wealth Report of the German Federal Government states that since 2002, there has been a clear majority among the German people in favor of carrying out measures to reduce differences in income.

 

Conclusion

The reigning paper money system is at the center of the growing income inequality and expanding poverty rates we find in many countries today. Nevertheless, states continue to grow in power in the name of taming the market system that has supposedly caused the impoverishment actually caused by the state and its allies.

If those who claim to speak for social justice do nothing to protest this, their silence can only have two possible reasons. They either don’t understand how our monetary system functions, in which case, they should do their research and learn about it; or they do understand it and are cynically ignoring a major source of poverty because they may in fact be benefiting from the paper money system themselves.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/TcbgUe1v65E/story01.htm Tyler Durden

 

 

 

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via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/4rNxxlzjUi8/story01.htm williambanzai7

We recently questioned whether things were falling apart in US-Asia relations…as the Trans-Pacific Partnership lies battered on the floor; this seemed to sum it up rather well…

 

Source: Michael Ramirez via Investors.com

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/dFeg2S_q07A/story01.htm Tyler Durden