Chinese Warships Approach Alaska As US Navy Increases Presence In South China Sea

Chinese Warships Approach Alaska As US Navy Increases Presence In South China Sea

The US Coast Guard revealed a significant incident involving Chinese military vessels coming near American waters off Alaska. While the incident was first divulged to the public on Monday, it happened at the end of August. 

No less than four People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy ships were spotted and shadowed by US vessels off Alaska’s Aleutian Islands, including a guided missile destroyer and guided missile cruiser, as well as an intelligence gathering vessel and auxiliary ship. They stayed in international waters but came within the United States’ exclusive economic zone.

US Coast Guard Cutter Bertholf shadowing Chinese navy ships on August 30, 2021. Source: US Coast Guard

“During the deployment, Bertholf and Kimball observed four ships from the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) operating as close as 46 miles off the Aleutian Island coast,” the Coast Guard statement said. “While the ships were within the US exclusive economic zone, they followed international laws and norms and at no point entered US territorial waters.”

The statement said further, “The Chinese vessels conducted military and surveillance operations during their deployment to the Bering Sea and North Pacific Ocean.”

A US Coast Guard source was later cited in a media report confirming that the Chinese ships were present in the US’ EEZ (exclusive economic zone: which extends far off the Alaskan coast) from August 29 to September 1. 

Despite at one point coming to within about 46 miles of a US island off Alaska, the Chinese naval task force stayed within international waters, though were firmly within the US EEZ – which extends about 230 miles off the Alaskan coast

The Coast Guard published images of the encounter wherein the US vessels shadowed the Chinese group, as Business Insider details

The four Chinese warships were shadowed and monitored by the US Coast Guard cutters Bertholf and Kimball and are visible in Coast Guard images. The crew of the Bertholf made radio contact with the the Chinese ships, and the service said all interactions were consistent with international standards.

US Coast Guard photo set of the prior encounter off Alaska

Chinese state mouthpiece Global Times on Monday featured insight by Chinese military analysts who said China’s navy is taking “countermeasure against US military provocations on China’s doorsteps in the name of freedom of navigation.”

This as the US Navy has stepped up maneuvers in the South China Sea, recently sending the USS Carl Vinson Carrier which for the first time carried F-35 stealth fighters on its deck. This had served to reportedly put the PLA military ‘on alert’ – given the US conducted drills launching the F-35 from the carrier deck for the first time ever near China-claimed waters in the region.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 09/14/2021 – 13:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3hwRt6c Tyler Durden

Obama CIA Director Says Biden Afghanistan Calamity Has “Absolutely Inspired Jihadists All Over The World”

Obama CIA Director Says Biden Afghanistan Calamity Has “Absolutely Inspired Jihadists All Over The World”

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Appearing on CBS News Sunday, the former CIA Director under Obama, while Biden was Vice President, admitted that the contemptuous actions of the now president in Afghanistan has injected new inspiration into terrorists all over the globe.

“I think that the Taliban winning the war in Afghanistan, and then the way our exit happened, has absolutely inspired jihadists all over the world,” Michael Morell said on Face The Nation.

He added that the calamitous exit from the country means “there’s a celebration going on.”

“The Taliban is saying, we just didn’t defeat the United States, we defeated NATO. We defeated the world’s greatest military power, ever,” Morell urged.

“I think, not only will the jihadists be inspired, but a lot of them are going to come to Afghanistan to be part of the celebration, to be part of jihadist central,” he continued.

“We are more at risk, without a doubt,” Morell concluded.

Watch:

Morell’s comments come as Biden’s Secretary of State Antony Blinken admitted there is STILL a hostage situation going on with Americans now being held the Mazar-i-Sharif Airport in northern Afghanistan for over ten days:

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden
Tue, 09/14/2021 – 12:40

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The Procedural Puzzles of SB8, Part IV: Test Cases for Defensive State-Court Litigation

Our second and third posts explained the limited offensive actions available to providers and advocates. This will likely require providers and advocates to raise their constitutional challenges to SB8 in a defensive posture in state court after being sued by a claimant for violating SB8. But providers so far have not performed or announced an intent to perform a prohibited post-fetal-heartbeat abortion that could trigger suit.

SB8’s civil action is available against any provider or advocate who (1) performs or induces a prohibited abortion, (2) aids or abets a prohibited abortion, or (3) intends to perform or aid a prohibited abortion. If an actual abortion is performed or assisted, the successful SB8 claimant can recover the statutory damage award of $10,000 or more, injunctive relief, and attorney’s fees and costs. But once the defendant demonstrates that the full statutory damages have been paid for any abortion, “a court may not award” further relief regarding that specific abortion. If instead the provider or advocate merely “intends to” engage in prohibited conduct, damages are not available; the successful claimant is limited to an award of injunctive relief and costs and attorney’s fees.

Two possible mechanisms exist to create a test case. First, a provider could announce an intent to perform, and an advocate could announce an intent to aid or abet, a prohibited abortion. Although statutory damages are not available, the provider and advocate could confront multiple simultaneous suits across the state seeking injunctive relief. In addition to the defense costs, the provider or advocate might be liable for multiple awards of attorney’s fees and costs to successful SB8 claimants.

The other mechanism is to perform one—and only one—prohibited abortion without indicating any intent to continue to do so. Although that triggers the statutory damage award of $10,000 or more if an SB8 claimant prevails, no subsequent court may award additional relief with respect to that abortion. Even if there are multiple suits filed, the provider or advocate will only be subject to one award of damages, attorney’s fees, and costs. This limitation on recovery to a single claimant may result in fewer copycat suits from other ideological opponents of abortion.

A potential risk, though, in performing or aiding a single abortion is that a suit may not be filed. Ideological opponents to abortion may prefer to wait until closer to the expiration of the four-year statute of limitations rather than participate in a test case challenging the constitutionality of SB8 shortly after it went into effect.

To ensure suit is filed, providers and advocates can take advantage of SB8 authorizing “any person” to sue. The suit does not have to be filed by an opponent of abortion; the claimant merely must seek the remedies against the provider or advocate authorized by the statute to sue under SB8. This allows providers and advocates to arrange litigation to be filed against them, even by parties sympathetic to abortion rights. It might be advantageous to ensure several suits are filed, with the providers and advocates pursuing different offensive and defensive litigation strategies to determine which, if any, are successful. The offensive litigation theory described in our third post could be pursued in one of the cases, while the various constitutional defenses we describe in our next post could be pursued in other cases.

Whether the SB8 litigation is arranged or brought by ideological opponents of abortion, providers and advocates will be in a defensive posture in state court. Although defendants have a right to remove state-court lawsuits to federal district court when the state-court plaintiff could have filed the action in federal court and the federal court would have had jurisdiction, removal of an SB8 suit is impossible.

A defendant can remove actions that arise under the Constitution, laws, or treaties of the United States. The central defense for advocates and providers is that the fetal-heartbeat provision violates Fourteenth Amendment due process. But federal-question jurisdiction adheres to the “well-pleaded complaint” rule, under which jurisdiction exists only if the federal issue enters the case as part of the plaintiff’s well-pleaded complaint; an anticipated federal defense to a state claim is insufficient to establish jurisdiction or to make the case removable. Although it is obvious that the providers and advocates will raise the constitutional defects in SB8 and the constitutional validity of SB8 will determine the outcome, SB8 actions are not within the district court’s original jurisdiction and are not removable as arising under the Constitution, laws, or treaties of the United States.

A second basis for removal is when a civil action is between citizens of different states where the amount in controversy exceeds $ 75,000. This requires complete diversity—no party from the same state as an adverse party. Complete diversity is unlikely because the probable plaintiffs are citizens of Texas, as are at least some of the probable defendants, such as doctors, nurses, and providers operating in the state. Moreover, the presence of one Texas defendant bars removal on diversity grounds under the forum-defendant rule. 28 U.S.C. § 1441(b)(2). A plaintiff—who likely wants to be in state court—can bar diversity removal by including one single Texas defendant.

A final—and insurmountable—hurdle to removal is lack of standing. SB8 authorizes “any person” to bring a civil action. That person need not have any connection to a particular post-heartbeat abortion or to a particular woman who sought or considered a post-heartbeat abortion. He need not have suffered any physical, monetary, or other personal injury. It is enough that he wants to file suit and obtain the statutory relief awarded.

Such plaintiffs lack standing in federal district court. Even where a legislature creates a cause of action and authorizes a person to sue, federal plaintiffs must show that they suffered an “injury in fact,” meaning some personal injury, whether tangible or intangible, analogous to recognized common law injuries. A court lacks jurisdiction to hear a claim based on a mere statutory violation, absent some other personal harm. And ideological objections are insufficient.

SB8 actions recall the California litigation in Kasky v. Nike. California’s unfair-competition law authorized “any person acting for the interests of … the general public” to bring an action, regardless of whether the plaintiff was injured or had a private right of action for the specific violation; this cause of action was as broad as the one in SB8, although the California law retained public enforcement.  The plaintiff, a politically active consumer advocate, sued Nike in state court for false advertising, based on Nike press releases responding to reports about factory working conditions; Nike defended by arguing that their statements, even if false, were protected by the First Amendment. The California Supreme Court reversed dismissal of the action, holding that Nike’s press releases were commercial speech and subject to regulation under consumer-protection laws if false.

The Supreme Court of the United States granted certiorari, then dismissed as improvidently granted, dumping what many anticipated would produce a significant First Amendment ruling. Justice Stevens, concurring in the dismissal, and Justice Breyer, dissenting from the dismissal, agreed that the plaintiff lacked Article III standing to obtain original jurisdiction in federal court because he had not suffered any personal injury beyond the statutory authorization. The action could not have been litigated in federal district court, whether originally or on removal. Like the plaintiff in Kasky, SB8 plaintiffs could not file these actions in federal court (not that they would want to) and defendants cannot remove them, since removal requires an action that could have been filed in federal court.

Providers and advocates will thus have to pursue their defensive challenges in state court. The defenses available to them there will be the subject of our next post.

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The Procedural Puzzles of SB8, Part IV: Test Cases for Defensive State-Court Litigation

Our second and third posts explained the limited offensive actions available to providers and advocates. This will likely require providers and advocates to raise their constitutional challenges to SB8 in a defensive posture in state court after being sued by a claimant for violating SB8. But providers so far have not performed or announced an intent to perform a prohibited post-fetal-heartbeat abortion that could trigger suit.

SB8’s civil action is available against any provider or advocate who (1) performs or induces a prohibited abortion, (2) aids or abets a prohibited abortion, or (3) intends to perform or aid a prohibited abortion. If an actual abortion is performed or assisted, the successful SB8 claimant can recover the statutory damage award of $10,000 or more, injunctive relief, and attorney’s fees and costs. But once the defendant demonstrates that the full statutory damages have been paid for any abortion, “a court may not award” further relief regarding that specific abortion. If instead the provider or advocate merely “intends to” engage in prohibited conduct, damages are not available; the successful claimant is limited to an award of injunctive relief and costs and attorney’s fees.

Two possible mechanisms exist to create a test case. First, a provider could announce an intent to perform, and an advocate could announce an intent to aid or abet, a prohibited abortion. Although statutory damages are not available, the provider and advocate could confront multiple simultaneous suits across the state seeking injunctive relief. In addition to the defense costs, the provider or advocate might be liable for multiple awards of attorney’s fees and costs to successful SB8 claimants.

The other mechanism is to perform one—and only one—prohibited abortion without indicating any intent to continue to do so. Although that triggers the statutory damage award of $10,000 or more if an SB8 claimant prevails, no subsequent court may award additional relief with respect to that abortion. Even if there are multiple suits filed, the provider or advocate will only be subject to one award of damages, attorney’s fees, and costs. This limitation on recovery to a single claimant may result in fewer copycat suits from other ideological opponents of abortion.

A potential risk, though, in performing or aiding a single abortion is that a suit may not be filed. Ideological opponents to abortion may prefer to wait until closer to the expiration of the four-year statute of limitations rather than participate in a test case challenging the constitutionality of SB8 shortly after it went into effect.

To ensure suit is filed, providers and advocates can take advantage of SB8 authorizing “any person” to sue. The suit does not have to be filed by an opponent of abortion; the claimant merely must seek the remedies against the provider or advocate authorized by the statute to sue under SB8. This allows providers and advocates to arrange litigation to be filed against them, even by parties sympathetic to abortion rights. It might be advantageous to ensure several suits are filed, with the providers and advocates pursuing different offensive and defensive litigation strategies to determine which, if any, are successful. The offensive litigation theory described in our third post could be pursued in one of the cases, while the various constitutional defenses we describe in our next post could be pursued in other cases.

Whether the SB8 litigation is arranged or brought by ideological opponents of abortion, providers and advocates will be in a defensive posture in state court. Although defendants have a right to remove state-court lawsuits to federal district court when the state-court plaintiff could have filed the action in federal court and the federal court would have had jurisdiction, removal of an SB8 suit is impossible.

A defendant can remove actions that arise under the Constitution, laws, or treaties of the United States. The central defense for advocates and providers is that the fetal-heartbeat provision violates Fourteenth Amendment due process. But federal-question jurisdiction adheres to the “well-pleaded complaint” rule, under which jurisdiction exists only if the federal issue enters the case as part of the plaintiff’s well-pleaded complaint; an anticipated federal defense to a state claim is insufficient to establish jurisdiction or to make the case removable. Although it is obvious that the providers and advocates will raise the constitutional defects in SB8 and the constitutional validity of SB8 will determine the outcome, SB8 actions are not within the district court’s original jurisdiction and are not removable as arising under the Constitution, laws, or treaties of the United States.

A second basis for removal is when a civil action is between citizens of different states where the amount in controversy exceeds $ 75,000. This requires complete diversity—no party from the same state as an adverse party. Complete diversity is unlikely because the probable plaintiffs are citizens of Texas, as are at least some of the probable defendants, such as doctors, nurses, and providers operating in the state. Moreover, the presence of one Texas defendant bars removal on diversity grounds under the forum-defendant rule. 28 U.S.C. § 1441(b)(2). A plaintiff—who likely wants to be in state court—can bar diversity removal by including one single Texas defendant.

A final—and insurmountable—hurdle to removal is lack of standing. SB8 authorizes “any person” to bring a civil action. That person need not have any connection to a particular post-heartbeat abortion or to a particular woman who sought or considered a post-heartbeat abortion. He need not have suffered any physical, monetary, or other personal injury. It is enough that he wants to file suit and obtain the statutory relief awarded.

Such plaintiffs lack standing in federal district court. Even where a legislature creates a cause of action and authorizes a person to sue, federal plaintiffs must show that they suffered an “injury in fact,” meaning some personal injury, whether tangible or intangible, analogous to recognized common law injuries. A court lacks jurisdiction to hear a claim based on a mere statutory violation, absent some other personal harm. And ideological objections are insufficient.

SB8 actions recall the California litigation in Kasky v. Nike. California’s unfair-competition law authorized “any person acting for the interests of … the general public” to bring an action, regardless of whether the plaintiff was injured or had a private right of action for the specific violation; this cause of action was as broad as the one in SB8, although the California law retained public enforcement.  The plaintiff, a politically active consumer advocate, sued Nike in state court for false advertising, based on Nike press releases responding to reports about factory working conditions; Nike defended by arguing that their statements, even if false, were protected by the First Amendment. The California Supreme Court reversed dismissal of the action, holding that Nike’s press releases were commercial speech and subject to regulation under consumer-protection laws if false.

The Supreme Court of the United States granted certiorari, then dismissed as improvidently granted, dumping what many anticipated would produce a significant First Amendment ruling. Justice Stevens, concurring in the dismissal, and Justice Breyer, dissenting from the dismissal, agreed that the plaintiff lacked Article III standing to obtain original jurisdiction in federal court because he had not suffered any personal injury beyond the statutory authorization. The action could not have been litigated in federal district court, whether originally or on removal. Like the plaintiff in Kasky, SB8 plaintiffs could not file these actions in federal court (not that they would want to) and defendants cannot remove them, since removal requires an action that could have been filed in federal court.

Providers and advocates will thus have to pursue their defensive challenges in state court. The defenses available to them there will be the subject of our next post.

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Biden Allies Sour On Taxing Rich As House Dems Eye SALT Cap Handout

Biden Allies Sour On Taxing Rich As House Dems Eye SALT Cap Handout

As progressive lawmakers push President Biden to jack taxes on the rich, some of his top Democratic allies have begun to push back.

To wit, the House Ways and Means Committee has scaled back ‘some of the most ambitious elements’ of the Biden administration’s economic blueprint ahead of a Tuesday vote, according to Bloomberg, adding that the changes “reflect the political reality of a Senate that requires moderate Democrats to vote en masse for the final package, given the razor thin margins of the party’s control of the chamber.”

Biden’s move to tax rich families on inherited assets at the time of transfer — ending the so-called step-up in basis measure — is absent from the House plan unveiled Monday. His top capital gains tax rate of 39.6% gets weakened to 25%. There is a 3% surtax on incomes exceeding $5 million, but the principle of bringing levies on investments more into line with wage-earners’ incomes is eroded.

While Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden hinted at addressing step-up in basis, such a gesture faces opposition from moderate Democrats in the upper chamber. Farm-state lawmakers have voiced particular concern about doing away with tax-free transfers of inherited assets, even though family farms were specifically marked out as an exception by Biden. -Bloomberg

“The biggest area where it falls short compared to Biden is changing the capital gains tax base, which is key to making sure billionaires pay taxes on those gains and making sure those gains don’t go un-taxed entirely,” said former Obama tax policy adviser, Seth Hanlon. “There is still this hole in the tax code that allows wealthy people to avoid taxes on their gains entirely.”

Biden’s so-called ‘Build Back Better’ plan was launched in part to enact his promise to roll back Trump tax cuts from 2017, which preceded record-breaking economic growth and unemployment in the American economy, particularly among minorities.

Progressives, however, say the tax rollbacks don’t go far enough.

Opposition to the tax hikes is strong among Democrats in the farming community – which is currently exempt from taxation for farms passed down to heirs, and only taxes gains when a property is sold or stops being operated by the family.

Even though Biden’s plan to eliminate step-up in basis included exemptions, opposition from groups including the National Corn Growers Association has been vocal. The administration’s package exempted from taxation any family business or farm passed down to heirs and would tax the increase in the value of the business or property only when it is sold, or stops being run by the family. Biden’s plan also exempts the first $2.5 million in gains from family farms from taxation.

One outside coalition, run by former Heidi Heitkamp, a former Democrat senator from North Dakota, argues that the proposed tax changes would still hit ordinary Americans like farmers or those who run smaller family businesses. She said the Biden proposal has generated deep skepticism among farm owners and rural business owners who fear the provision would erode land values or that the exemptions could later be weakened.

“When you think about this in the long run, is the revenue that would be raised commensurate with the political liability you’re taking on?” Heitkamp said in an interview. “To think there is no political liability, that may be true in downtown Queens, but it’s not true in states like North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, in rural districts, in swing districts.” -Bloomberg

Recall that the Democrats’ entire $3.5 trillion economic blueprint is doomed if they can’t convince moderate Democrats – such as Sen. Joe Manchin (WV) to sign off.

SALT handout

While the Biden administration continues to advertise their tax plans as an assault on the rich, and only the rich, House Democrats are eyeing a handout for the rich with a two-year repeal of the SALT cap.

The cap, implemented by the GOP in 2017, limits the federal deduction for state and local taxes to $10,000.

According to senior Ways and Means Committee Democrat Bill Pascrell of New Jersey, the SALT cap rollback is one of the “main considerations” before the body.

“There’s no final decision,” he said, however. “It’s a working project.”

The SALT cap discussions come as lawmakers from high-tax states (California and New York in particular) threatened Speaker Nancy Pelosi over support for other parts of Biden’s economic agenda unless the deduction cap is eliminated or at least modified.

The Ways and Means committee did not include a specific strategy for the SALT deduction in its tax plan released Monday to help pay for Biden’s agenda. But Chairman Richard Neal of Massachusetts joined Pascrell and Tom Suozzi of New York in releasing a statement that the SALT cap would be addressed in the legislative process later on.

The committee on Tuesday was meeting to finalize details of the bill, intending to send that to the House Budget Committee by Wednesday. –Bloomberg

Two years ago, Suozzi sponsored legislation attempting to double the cap to $20,000 for married couples filing jointly, and then temporarily repeal it altogether for two years for people making less than $100 million per year.

According to the report, restoring the full SALT deduction would cost the US Treasury $88.7 billion in 2021 alone, according to the Joint Committee on Taxation. A repeal lasting multiple years would of course mean considerably more.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 09/14/2021 – 12:20

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3nwcmCp Tyler Durden

Biden’s $3.5 Trillion Spending Plan Will Leave Americans Poorer in the Long Run


andy-feliciotti-8cvjI48SFtY-unsplash

As Congress wrangles over the details of a massive spending bill that’s central to President Joe Biden’s “Build Back Better” plan, a new analysis shows the proposal will leave America poorer in the long run.

Biden’s plan to hike federal spending by about $3.5 trillion over the next 10 years—paid for with a combination of huge tax increases and up to $1.75 trillion in new borrowing—will decrease future economic growth and reduce private wealth, according to a new analysis from the Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM), a macroeconomic forecasting project based at the University of Pennsylvania.

The report projects that the reconciliation package would cause GDP would fall by about 4 percent by 2050 relative to where it would be if the proposal did not pass. That decline is driven by an estimated 6.1 percent reduction in private capital, which the group defines as “computers, equipment, factories, buildings, and other productive assets that are used to produce goods and services” and an 8.9 percent increase in government debt.

Higher levels of spending and higher amounts of government debt “crowds out investment in productive private capital. Less private capital leads to lower wages as workers become less well-equipped to do their jobs effectively,” the PWBM analysis warns.

That higher levels of taxation, spending, and borrowing are an albatross on future economic growth is not exactly a revolutionary conclusion—unless you work in government, that is. Congress pressed ahead with the reconciliation package this week, as the House Ways and Means Committee stuffed a long list of tax increases into the bill. They plan to hike the corporate income tax, capital gains tax rate, and personal income tax for the top income bracket. Other taxes will target tobacco products and e-cigarettes, cryptocurrencies, and more.

As those parts of the budget plan are finalized in the coming weeks, we’ll get more specific analyses from agencies like the Congressional Budget Office and the Joint Committee on Taxation. The PWBM report is based on a framework of the reconciliation bill that was released last month, so it does not take into account the specifics that are beginning to emerge, but the big picture remains the same: No matter whether the bill relies more heavily on revenue raised from taxation or by borrowing, the negatives outweigh the positives.

“Higher revenues decrease government debt, which offsets some of the negative effects on wages and GDP,” the report says. “On the other hand, higher tax rates on wages discourage households from working.” Other aspects of the plan, like greater levels of spending on public housing and increased Medicare benefits—at a time when some parts of the Medicare program are in danger of hitting insolvency—will further “reduce households’ incentives to work, which accelerates the decline in GDP.”

Workers might benefit from the massive surge in government spending in the short term, but they will lose out in the long run. The PWBM analysis says wages will rise by 0.7 percent between now and 2030 due to a reduction in the labor supply that will make workers more valuable. “However, as the decline in private capital grows over time, labor productivity continues to decline, which lowers the wage,” the report says. By 2050, hourly wages will be 2.1 percent lower than they otherwise would be.

In all, the PWBM report suggests that Biden’s massive spending package would hurt taxpayers, investors, workers, and future generations already facing the prospect of lowered standards of living caused by America’s impossibly huge pile of debt.

Build Back Better? Hardly.

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China Yuan Swaps Soar Amid Fears Evergrande Default Will Lead To Liquidity Crisis

China Yuan Swaps Soar Amid Fears Evergrande Default Will Lead To Liquidity Crisis

The initial contagion from the upcoming default of Evergrande, which after the company’s hiring of bankruptcy advisor Houlihan Lokey is just a matter of days, is starting to emerge.

China’s one-year onshore swap curves surged to the highest in almost four years, signaling market worries over liquidity shortage on potential default by a key property developer Evergrande. Interbank borrowing costs also rise ahead of the central bank’s medium-term lending facility operation on Wednesday.

As Bloomberg notes the 1-year dollar-yuan onshore swap – a gauge of funding costs for the Chinese currency via the foreign exchange market – surged as high as 1,843 pips Tuesday, the highest in almost four years.

“Considering huge uncertainties over the key developer’s bond default and the possible spillover to the property sector, market participants might intend to swap more CNH and CNY liquidity in the FX swap market (sell/buy USD against yuan),” said Ken Cheung, Chief Asian FX Strategist at Mizuho.

While one would be hard-pressed top find any fears in US assets, Cheung notes that traders might be preparing for “the liquidity squeeze in crisis mode” adding that a full-blown bankruptcy would trigger a domino effect of defaults in its bonds and wealth management products, or as he put it in terms so simple even those who were in diapers when Lehamn filed, “the collapse of credit would lead to liquidity squeeze in financial markets.”

While funding markets are only now starting to reflect Evergrande default fears, the contagion across China’s credit market has been visible for weeks, with local junk bond yields surging to the highest since the covid crash.

Not helping market liquidity is traders confusion over how much of the 600BN yuan in medium term loans maturing on Wednesday will be rolled over by the PBOC, any liquidity drains by the central bank will lead to even tighter funding conditions and could accelerate the collapse in one or more Chinese companies.

“A partial rollover looks likely given that the 7-day repo rate remains pretty stable and the PBOC will only act when the 7-day moves,” said Hao Zhou senior emerging economist at Commerzbank in Singapore, adding that “the central bank will need more weakening signals to move on rates so maybe next month is a better time window with the Q3 GDP report due.”

His conclusion: “Evergrande hasn’t had a big impact on interbank market yet.” That will change very fast once the company officially files.

 

 

Tyler Durden
Tue, 09/14/2021 – 12:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3AaAQVl Tyler Durden

Biden’s $3.5 Trillion Spending Plan Will Leave Americans Poorer in the Long Run


andy-feliciotti-8cvjI48SFtY-unsplash

As Congress wrangles over the details of a massive spending bill that’s central to President Joe Biden’s “Build Back Better” plan, a new analysis shows the proposal will leave America poorer in the long run.

Biden’s plan to hike federal spending by about $3.5 trillion over the next 10 years—paid for with a combination of huge tax increases and up to $1.75 trillion in new borrowing—will decrease future economic growth and reduce private wealth, according to a new analysis from the Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM), a macroeconomic forecasting project based at the University of Pennsylvania.

The report projects that the reconciliation package would cause GDP would fall by about 4 percent by 2050 relative to where it would be if the proposal did not pass. That decline is driven by an estimated 6.1 percent reduction in private capital, which the group defines as “computers, equipment, factories, buildings, and other productive assets that are used to produce goods and services” and an 8.9 percent increase in government debt.

Higher levels of spending and higher amounts of government debt “crowds out investment in productive private capital. Less private capital leads to lower wages as workers become less well-equipped to do their jobs effectively,” the PWBM analysis warns.

That higher levels of taxation, spending, and borrowing are an albatross on future economic growth is not exactly a revolutionary conclusion—unless you work in government, that is. Congress pressed ahead with the reconciliation package this week, as the House Ways and Means Committee stuffed a long list of tax increases into the bill. They plan to hike the corporate income tax, capital gains tax rate, and personal income tax for the top income bracket. Other taxes will target tobacco products and e-cigarettes, cryptocurrencies, and more.

As those parts of the budget plan are finalized in the coming weeks, we’ll get more specific analyses from agencies like the Congressional Budget Office and the Joint Committee on Taxation. The PWBM report is based on a framework of the reconciliation bill that was released last month, so it does not take into account the specifics that are beginning to emerge, but the big picture remains the same: No matter whether the bill relies more heavily on revenue raised from taxation or by borrowing, the negatives outweigh the positives.

“Higher revenues decrease government debt, which offsets some of the negative effects on wages and GDP,” the report says. “On the other hand, higher tax rates on wages discourage households from working.” Other aspects of the plan, like greater levels of spending on public housing and increased Medicare benefits—at a time when some parts of the Medicare program are in danger of hitting insolvency—will further “reduce households’ incentives to work, which accelerates the decline in GDP.”

Workers might benefit from the massive surge in government spending in the short term, but they will lose out in the long run. The PWBM analysis says wages will rise by 0.7 percent between now and 2030 due to a reduction in the labor supply that will make workers more valuable. “However, as the decline in private capital grows over time, labor productivity continues to decline, which lowers the wage,” the report says. By 2050, hourly wages will be 2.1 percent lower than they otherwise would be.

In all, the PWBM report suggests that Biden’s massive spending package would hurt taxpayers, investors, workers, and future generations already facing the prospect of lowered standards of living caused by America’s impossibly huge pile of debt.

Build Back Better? Hardly.

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‘Nothing Lasts Forever’ – The Threat To Apple Is Three-Fold

‘Nothing Lasts Forever’ – The Threat To Apple Is Three-Fold

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“The light that burns twice as bright burns half as long – and you have burned so very, very brightly..”

Highlight event today is Apple launching new bright-shiny-things. Apple is unique – it has a monopoly of being Apple! For how long?

Back in the real world…. Apple is the Apple

US inflation data aside, the most eagerly anticipated event later today is new-bright-shiny-thing announcement time when the most valuable company on the planet launches its latest batch of opioid tech.

Yay! Time for the new iPhone (which might or might not be called the 12s, or the 13), plus the launch of a new model iWatch, and Airpods version whatever. New Mac-Book pros are also on the way. And whatever wonderful bright-shiny-things Apple unveils – we know it will be bought by the container-ship full. (Global Supply Chains permitting.)

Years ago – in the dark days immediately after Steve – I wrote a hopelessly ill-informed double-plus-bad-think article about Apple – predicting it was a bubble about to burst. My thesis was well argued: without Steve Jobs’ disruptive vision endlessly inventing new concepts in tech (like iPods), innovating exciting new bright shiny products to excite us while emptying our wallets, Apple was doomed to be overtaken by newer, nimbler, more inventive, fashionable, cooler competitors. I could not have been more predictable and orthodox in my thinking.

How could Apple possibly command any extraordinary market value in a constantly evolving tech sector when it was a mature – effectively prehistoric – company founded way back in 1976? The evidence of the last 37 years since the original brick suggests it’s a brutal market. We’ve seen names like Motorola, Nokia, Ericson, and Crackberry effectively disappear, while a host of other producers are of statistical insignificance – even though they sell more phones cheaper. Today Samsung builds brilliant handsets, but is runner up in a one horse race.

I thought Apple was doomed to similar evolutionary obsolescence.

What a fool I was. Fortunately, I did not sell my stock – as I did when I decided Tesla was run by an unpleasant numpty. Elon remains a numpty… but a very, very rich numpty.

Apple not only remains dominant, but has effectively become its own unassailable Monopoly of being Apple. I reckoned without understanding the Tim Cook effect. No new disruptive products – but he has expanded the Apple multiverse, building a much larger ecosystem which Apple is successfully farming for increasing revenues.

Cook has been CEO for 10 years. He’s made headlines after receiving a $750 mm payout for his first 10-years success quadrupling sales and leading the firm to top of the global value table. He’s generated a return of 33% per annum for investors, double the return of the S&P 500. Apple is sitting on an enormous cash pile, yet has still spent $450 bln buying back its own stock. It can do, literally, anything..

Apple is no longer just a maker of bright-shiny tech. It’s become a business ecosystem with cloud, music and app subscriptions. Its bundling these services and trying customers into them. It’s a digital wallet via ApplePay. It’s a streaming service. At $54 bln its services business is now larger than its iPhone sales of $40 bln, while “wearables” like watches and buds come in at $31 bln. The earnings are sustainable.. There are around 1 billion iPhones, and they are recycled upwards around every 3-4 years. What’s not to like? What might replace them? Even if anything did – what competitor could replace the ecosystem of which the iPhone is just a part?

Tim Cook succeeded for two reasons.

First, because he positioned Apple to ride the “exponential” wave of “net-enabled” innovation over the last 10-years allowing the firm to harvest revenues from new markets and servces, and capturing the customers revenues they spawned.

Second, because he recognised what me and billions of other customers are…

“Hi, my name is Bill and I am a hopeless Apple addict. I can’t resist. I’ve got iMacs on my desk, Mac-pros in a travel bag and on the yacht, iPads sitting around in bedrooms and lounges, an iWatch on my wrist, loads of iCloud space for my docs and photos, and an iMusic subscription… The most single important thing I own is my iPhone. New last year and it’s about to become obsolete. I need to buy the new one. Now! Please help me?”  

The new iPhone will be same as the old iPhone, but with… well even better cameras, photo-editing software and a “more advanced” screen. The tech analysts say it will be “more iterative”. Wow. How have I lived without these things? (Clue: I have never photo-edited anything, I wouldn’t know a better camera if it bit me in the leg, and I am singularly unaware of ever having used the 5G functionality on my now one-year old iPhone 12 pro-to-the-max.) More interestingly the new phone may have 1 terrabyte of data – and since I am always running out of memory….

Whatever…. My iPhone is indispensable. Without it.. I am proverbially what happens before you get pregnant.

On my iPhone I can do all my banking. I can watch markets. I can send and receive on all my multiple email addresses. I can blog and chat and order “stuff”. I can turn on and off my lights. I can look at all my photos. I can control our kitchen appliances from it (yes, I have switched on Mac’n’cheese in the oven while we’ve been heading home from sailing.) I can listen to podcasts, radios, watch TV and even films. I’ve written the Morning Porridge on it. I can check where I am on my yacht – much easier than nipping into the cabin to look at paper charts. I can play games. I can and do listen to loads and loads of music on it, and I can control my hi-def streaming from it.

Heck, I can even phone people on it!

But will I always buy Apple?

The threat to Apple is three fold:

  1. Will Apple be able to keep up with the chaotically evolving possibilities and opportunities within rapidly spinning cloud, fintech and consumer tech. I don’t have a clue what tech marvel will emerge next to make our lives better, yet more complex. Apple’s current legislative battles over App costs could send developers to other vectors – if there were any.

  2. Will Apple be allowed to remain so dominant by the regulators? Already its underpressure from anti-trust laws. Are the courts likely to test Apple’s monopoly on being Apple? The age of tech regulation to control data use is upon us. GDPR and Child Suitability rules are merely the first step.

  3. Will exponential development of web-enabled products continue – or, have we peaked, or might a new revolution emerge? What if someone makes the smart-phone obsolescent overnight – like the iPod did to the CD Player and Sony Discman? (Or, will Apple just buy up any promising competitors and bury them?)

What I do know is nothing lasts forever. Empires rise and fall. Companies don’t remain in the top 10 for very long.. Apple has already lasted longer than most… But who would bet against Apple today?

Tomorrow.. well that’s a different story….

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Watch Apple’s big unveiling live here (due to start at 1300ET):

Tyler Durden
Tue, 09/14/2021 – 11:41

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3tFGhch Tyler Durden

A Record $2 Trillion Options Just Traded; What It Means For Friday’s Massive Quad Witch OpEx

A Record $2 Trillion Options Just Traded; What It Means For Friday’s Massive Quad Witch OpEx

Now that stocks have emerged from their 5-day losing streak, narrowly averting 6 consecutive days of declines which would have been the longest such streak since the February 2020 depths of the covid crisis, attention shifts to the market’s technicals and especially Friday’s upcoming quad-witch which sees some $1.5 trillion in SPX option expirations, as well as $1.4tln in options across underlyings expiring on Friday afternoon, including the 2nd largest expiration for single stocks outside of a January.

Courtesy of Goldman, here Four observations on option positioning ahead of Friday’s quarterly maturity:

1. Option volumes have been continuing to grow relative to delta-one volumes. Both index and single stock option markets have shown volume growth in Q3, while delta-one volumes (futures and shares) have fallen. Having traditionally traded well below 100%, SPX options notional volumes are now double the volume of futures traded.

Single stock options have traded $500bln/day notional in September to date, 140% of the underlying shares volumes.

Hardly a secret to those following the tidal wave of retail trading, option markets are an increasingly important source of trading liquidity.

* * *

2. This past Friday (Sept 10) represented the US listed option market’s first $2tln notional volume day. By the metric of comparing notional to the size of the equity market cap, Friday was also one of the larger days on record.

The $2tln of trading volume included $975bln of SPX index options, of which $330bln expired the same day, and $120bln expired the next trading day (Mon, Sept 13). Goldman notes that these large, put-heavy, totals on the SPX’s 5th consecutive down-day reflected investors’ preference for adding to hedges once a sell-off has begun instead of pre-emptively and continually hedging.

* * *

2. Hedges galore: downside skew is extremely high amidst high short-dated tail hedge volumes. While skew has been high across underlyings and vol surfaces, SPX downside has been especially strong according to Goldman. Short-dated tail hedge volumes have risen: while 1-3 month SPX deep-out-of-the-money put option volumes are at the bottom of their range, over the past two weeks 15%+ out-of-the-money put option volumes with less than 1 month to maturity have hit their highest point since the height of the coronavirus crisis in 2020.

Single stock options have similarly shifted toward short-dated activity: 71% of total volumes have been in short-dated maturities, expiring within 2 weeks. The volume is concentrated in fewer underlyings- 58% of all activity is in 5 underlyings, while 84% is in the top 50 stocks. Average S&P 500 constituent 1M skew has increased significantly in Q3, and is now in its 97th percentile vs. the last year.

* * *

4. Friday’s expiration is large (including $1.5tln SPX notional expiring Friday morning), but smaller than recent quarterlies. Long “street” gamma positioning likely contributed to low recent SPX realized volatility (10-day realized vol: 5.7%), though high downside skew implies that investors may expect gamma to reverse in a further sell-off.

As Goldman has observed previously, the lower-than-usual open interest level of September’s quarterly itself (10% fewer contracts than Sept 2020 had at this point) reflects continued rotation away from the traditional 3rd Friday expirations (driven by systematic, longer-term investors) toward the full schedule of daily/weekly expirations. Inclusive of all underlyings, Goldman estimates that roughly $3.4tln of listed US equity options expire this Friday: $1.5tln of SPX quarterly, $310bln of options on E-mini futures, $220bln of SPY options, $610bln of other index/ETF options…

… and $720bln of single stock options.

 

Tyler Durden
Tue, 09/14/2021 – 11:21

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/398yVVw Tyler Durden