Month: September 2021

Encrypted text messages between an Army colonel and a former Special Forces soldier working on a private effort to extricate stranded Americans from Afghanistan reveal that the US evacuation was anything but the ‘extraordinary success’ President Biden declared on Tuesday.

“We are fucking abandoning American citizens,” said an Army colonel assigned to the 82nd Airborne Division in an encrypted Sunday text message to Michael Yon, who revealed the message to Just the News.

Yon told Just the News that a group of Americans were abandoned at the Kabul airport, pleading for help as military officials told them they were finished with evacuations.

“We had them out there waving their passport screaming, ‘I’m American,'” Yon said Tuesday while appearing on the John Solomon Reports podcast. -Just The News

“People were turned away from the gate by our own Army,” said Yon, the former Special Forces soldier and war correspondent.

Yon’s account, which he shared with JTN’s John Solomon, is backed by three dozen text and email exchanges with frontline Army officials in Afghanistan.

The stranded Americans eventually scattered to safe houses to avoid capture by the Taliban, after which Yon wrote a ‘stinging email’ to an Army major whose team abandoned the rescue effort.

“You guys left American citizens at the gate of the Kabul airport,” wrote Yon on Tuesday. “Three empty jets paid for by volunteers were waiting for them. You and I talked on the phone. I told you where they were. Gave you their passport images. And my email and phone number. And you left them behind.”

“Great job saving yourselves. Probably get a lot of medals,” he added.

While the helper group worked frantically to get the Americans through the gate, members texted one another to say they had seen National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on CNN saying that neither he nor U.S. Central Command chief Gen. Kenneth McKenzie were told that Americans were abandoned.

“Hey did they end up just taking off?” one correspondent texted the helper group. “Because the National Security Advisor just told Tapper that neither he nor McKenzie had heard anything about Americans being left at the gates.” 

The correspondent noted that the private group heard differently from a lieutenant colonel (O-5): “Given we had comms with an O-5 on the ground, that means CENTCOM C3 is s–t, or someone is lying.”

According to the private rescue effort, the US Army was told by the State Department not to rescue the Americans.

“We get them to the gate, and the U.S. Army completely fails this saying, ‘Oh, we can’t do it, because the Department of the State tells us we can’t do it,” Yon told Just the News.

Read the rest of the report here.

In today’s online meeting, OPEC+ is expected to agree to another production increase of 400,000 barrels per day, a move which is a continuation of the process of rolling back production cuts introduced in the depths of the Covid-19 crisis. The organization expects supplies to remain tight through the rest of the year, before flipping to a surplus in 2022. Oil is trading slightly higher this morning ahead of the decision.

Below, courtesy of Newsquawk, is a detail summary of what to expect in today’s meeting

SUMMARY

• The JTC will meet on Tuesday at 12:00BST/07:00EDT; JMMC and OPEC+ will meet on Wednesday at 15:00BST/10:00EDT and 16:00BST/11:00EDT respectively – subject to further delays
• Sources have suggested that the planned 400k BPD hike output will likely go ahead, although surprises cannot be ruled out

RECENT COMMENTARY 

• Kazakhstan considers the existing OPEC+ decisions as sufficient to stabilise the market, TASS reported
• The Kuwati oil minister, over the weekend, suggested OPEC+ could reconsider output increase due to COVID

RECENT SOURCES

• OPEC+ is likely to roll over its output policies this week, with a planned 400k BPD hike from September, according to sources
• An informed source has intimated that considering the outcome of the JTC meeting yesterday, it appears that the OPEC plus meeting today will continue its previous policy; i.e. an increase of 400k BPD, via Energy Journalist Zandi
• OPEC+ focus remains on an increase of 400k BPD despite the upward revision to demand forecast, according to four sources
• Sources have said “current oil prices around $70 are okay.”

JTC FORECASTS 

• OPEC+ forecasts oil stocks falling in 2021 even as it raises production, according to reports – If output is fully restored, the group forecasts a new oil surplus next year
• OPEC+ JTC revises figures and now sees OECD stocks below 2015-2019 average until May 2022 (prev. Jan 2022)
• OPEC+ JTC now sees 2022 market in 1.6mln BPD surplus – after revising figures down from earlier forecast of a surplus of 2.5mln BPD.

OVERVIEW: The OPEC+ decision-making meeting will be taking place against potential supply threats from a rampant Delta variant and the US’ desire for lower oil prices. The group have several options on the table for September production: 1) stick with the planned +400k BPD monthly hike, 2) defer the hike and maintain current production for at least September, or 3) increase output by a smaller volume. OPEC+ ministers have been relatively quiet since the mid-July meeting, but sources have suggested that the planned 400k BPD hike will likely go ahead. The Kuwaiti oil minister, however, has indicated that producers could mull halting the planned hike, citing COVID as the main factor, although he added that nothing had yet been discussed among participants.

SCHEDULE: The Joint Technical Committee (JTC) will meet on Tuesday at 12:00BST/07:00EDT to assess oil market conditions and examine its developments and trends. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) will then review this data on Wednesday at 15:00BST/10:00EDT and make a recommendation to OPEC+, with a meeting slated for 16:00BST/11:00EDT. As always with OPEC, timings are indicative and subject to delays.

PRIOR MEETING: Ministers at the last meeting agreed to hike total group production by 400k BPD per month from August (subject to market conditions), through to the end of 2022 (it moved this from April 2022). For the extended period (from May 2022 through the end of the year), production baselines, which the OPEC+ pact is premised on, have been revised higher for the UAE (3.5mln vs prev. 3.168mln), Iraq (4.803mln vs prev. 4.653mln), Kuwait (2.959mln vs prev. 2.809mln), Saudi and Russia (both to 11.5mln vs prev. 11mln). Russian Deputy PM Novak at the time stated that Russia would raise its oil output monthly by 100k BPD beginning in August and expects to return to pre-crisis levels of production in May next year. However, since then, some desks’ notes have suggested that OPEC’s exports for August were running at around 500k BPD higher than the average seen in July, which would represent an outpacing the corresponding relaxation in OPEC+ supply curbs.

DELTA VARIANT: The surge and dominance of the Delta variant across many economies have triggered fears of peak global growth and softer jet fuel demand. Nations, particularly in the East with low vaccine uptakes, have resorted to various lockdown measures to stem outbreaks. Furthermore, a recent Oxford study showed the AstraZeneca, and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines’ efficacies dropped in 90 days compared to two weeks after the 2nd dose – with the AstraZeneca vaccine efficacy at 61% and Pfizer vaccine at 75% at 90 days after the 2nd dose. There has also been growing noise surrounding a booster jab to reinforce against the Delta variant. The figure below shows the growth of dominance of the Delta variant across several regions over the past months. OPEC+ will likely reinforce caution surrounding COVID and express progress with regards to vaccinations.

US PRESSURE: The US has asked OPEC+ to ramp up output in a bid to stem the follow-through to US consumers. “We are engaging with relevant OPEC+ members on the importance of competitive markets in setting prices,” the statement said. A Senior White House official also noted that President Biden would “like his administration to use whatever tools that it has to help address the cost of gas, to help bring those prices down.” Subsequently, the US Department of Energy announced the sale of up to 20mln barrels of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). OPEC sources believe oil markets do not need more oil than they plan to release in the coming month. Texas Governor Abbott noted in a tweet that Texas can “can easily produce” the oil the White House desires – Texas produced some 4.74mln BPD in May 2021, according to EIA data, with pre-pandemic production (Jan 2020) just under 5.50mln BPD. Elsewhere, some have suggested that the US production taken offline by Hurricane Ida provides OPEC+ members with some room to manoeuvre – with the resumption of US production expected to be gradual, whilst damage assessments are underway.

IRANIAN OIL: Iranian supply may also gain some attention after Javad Owji was appointed Iran’s new oil minister – who is seeking to expand in new oil markets. Furthermore, JCPOA talks have hit a snag, with the prospect of a Nuclear Deal dimmer than it was at the previous OPEC+ confab. Iran is currently exempt from OPEC+ quotas amid the overarching US sanctions, although a return of Iranian barrels is widely expected – but contingent on JCPOA talks. That being said, reports have flagged illicit Iranian oil exports, albeit at a fraction of market price and to the detriment of Iran’s current account. Further, Hezbollah Secretary-General Nasrallah also announced that a ship carrying Iranian fuel will set sail for Lebanon, with Tehran warning against US intervention in what they called a “legitimate trade”. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson on Monday suggested a decision will be taken “in the coming days” on which Iranian body will manage the JCPOA talks, and hence it is safe to assume progress on a Nuclear Deal will be minimal ahead of the OPEC+ meeting.

OTHER POTENTIAL STICKING POINTS: Members can also complicate matters by seeking higher baseline, as did the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq in July talks, although there has been very little (so far) to indicate that this may be the case. OPEC+ needs unanimity to pass the next set of production quotas.

In what is quickly becoming an example of “how to start a brand new actively managed ETF about some new buzzword term every single day”, Cathie Wood is launching yet another ETF.

Adding to her flagship “Innovation” ARKK ETF, alongside of her Genomics and Self-Driving ETFs, Cathie Wood is now starting an ETF focused on transparency.

What does that mean? We didn’t really have any idea, either.

But according to Bloomberg the ETF will “closely follow an index that excludes industries including alcohol, banking, gambling and oil and gas”. Doesn’t sound like tons of fun, if you ask us.

Yet despite the supposed focus on virtue signaling (we’re guessing that’s why Wood is excluding gambling and oil and gas), Wood still has massive exposure to names like DraftKings elsewhere and will be including companies like Apple and Nike – notorious for their labor practices – in the latest ETF offering.

The inclusion of these names hasn’t stopped Wood from trying to position this ETF as some type of pious pathway into the world of investing.

Friend of Zero Hedge and Bloomberg ETF expert Eric Balchunas said: “This is kind of Ark’s version of ESG. It’s intriguing because it doesn’t have a moralizing vibe to it, it’s like they’re saying if you go after transparency, you’re probably going to buy good companies.”

The question of Wood is spreading herself too thin could start to come up if her funds can’t continue to perform. This ETF marks the second ETF launch for ARK this year, despite the firm’s “flagship” ARKK fund down 2% and underperforming the S&P this year. 

“An index-based ESG ETF doesn’t necessarily scream ‘disruptive innovation,’ which ARK has branded themselves around,” Nate Geraci, president of the ETF Store, concluded.

And of course, what would the launch of a new ETF be without the TV appearances to go with it? Expect to see Wood taking every opportunity to shill her latest “actively managed” product on Bloomberg and CNBC in coming weeks. We’ll have the “mute” button ready…

The Supreme Court made millions of pro-choice advocates extremely nervous on Wednesday when it decided not to intervene as a new Texas abortion law took effect. If it remains intact, the Texas heartbeat bill will be the most restrictive abortion law in the country, preventing 85% of women in Texas, the country’s second-most-populous state, from getting an abortion. In other words, it’s the biggest victory for pro-life advocates since the dawn of the Roe v. Wade era.

The bill outlaws abortion after a fetal heartbeat can be detected, which typically occurs around 6 weeks into a pregnancy, before many women even know they are pregnant.

A group of abortion providers are asking the Supreme Court to step in and overturn the law. At least 12 other states have enacted bans on abortion early in pregnancy, but all have been blocked from going into effect.

The Supreme Court could act on Wednesday, though the justices don’t have any firm deadline. The providers are challenging a federal appeals court decision that effectively blocked any pre-enforcement challenge.

One provision that makes the law unique is the fact that private citizens will be allowed to sue providers and anyone involved in “facilitating coverage”, which could mean people who drive others to the abortion clinic could be found liable in court to losses of at least $10,000. The ACLU says this provision “actively encourages private citizens to act as bounty hunters”.

Unsurprisingly, the law taking effect elicited outraged cries from the blue-check commentariat, including CNN legal analyst Jeffrey Toobin.

Midnight in Austin. For the first time since 1973, a state has banned abortion. The great conservative legal project has succeeded. RIP #RoeVWade

— Jeffrey Toobin (@JeffreyToobin) September 1, 2021

Fortunately for Toobin, masturbation doesn’t lead to pregnancy.

One doctor accused the Texas legislature of practicing “eugenics”, although we’re not certain that word means what the good doctor thinks it means.

Texas isn’t passing an abortion ban.

Texas is passing a reproductive coercion law.

Government sanctioned reproductive coercion. Different side of the forced sterilization coin.

This is fascism. This is eugenics. This is tyranny. This is the destruction of democracy in The USA.

— Leah Torres, MD (@LeahNTorres) September 1, 2021

Unsurprisingly, pro-choice groups seized on the occasion as a fundraising opportunity.

Overnight, #RoevWade was effectively overturned in Texas, and it will not stop here. Educate yourselves, please, and consider donating to a Texas abortion fund like @lilithfund, @FronteraFund, or @casnhtx. https://t.co/f8JOTyQ67g

— Jennifer Mathieu (@jenmathieu) September 1, 2021

In the coming months, SCOTUS will hear a Mississippi appeal that seeks to overturn Roe v Wade. But even before then, a decision to protect the Texas law could signal that SCOTUS is leaning toward “toppling precedents that protect abortion until much later in pregnancy,” according to Bloomberg.

For the second month in a row, the ADP Private Payroll employment report has been a complete disaster, and one month after the the ADP missed by almost half printing at 330K in June (missing expectations of 683K), moments ago ADP reported that private payrolls in August rose just 374K, which while a modest improvement from July’s downward revised 326K (which was the lowest since February), was again a huge miss to the 638K expected.

“Our data, which represents all workers on a company’s payroll, has highlighted a downshift in the labor market recovery. We have seen a decline in new hires, following significant job growth from the first half of the year,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.

“Despite the slowdown, job gains are approaching 4 million this year, yet still 7 million jobs short of pre-COVID-19 levels. Service providers continue to lead growth, although the Delta variant creates uncertainty for this sector. Job gains across company sizes grew in lockstep, with small businesses trailing a bit more than usual.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The Delta variant of COVID-19 appears to have dented the job market recovery. Job growth remains strong, but well off the pace of recent months. Job growth remains inextricably tied to the path of the pandemic.”

For the second month in a row, medium-sized businesses added the most jobs:

The Services economy continues to dominate the recovered jobs in June, with only 12k manufacturing jobs added.

More ominously, the only jobs added were waiters and bartenders (i.e., leisure and hospitality).

Finally, it is worth noting that ADP has under-guessed Nonfarm Payrolls in 5 of the last 7 months, and remember that Fed Governor Christopher Waller recently said the U.S. central bank could start to reduce its support for the economy by October if the next two monthly jobs reports show employment rising by 800,000 to 1 million, as he expects, adding that there’s “no reason” to go slow on tapering the Fed’s bond purchase program.

So if today’s ADP print is anything to go by, and if for once the ADP is predictive of what this Friday’s payrolls will reveal, then we may have a major taper problem, as inflation soars yet as the job market suddenly crumbles leading to the dreaded stagflation.