White House Plans To Extend Student Loan Moratorium (Again) As Midterms Loom

White House Plans To Extend Student Loan Moratorium (Again) As Midterms Loom

The notion that student-loan forgiveness is being weaponized by Democrats as a means of essentially buying the loyalty of an entire generation (or at least the upper-middle-class members of said generation) isn’t anything new. Indeed, we have discussed it in detail as recently as late last month.

But despite this transparent attempt to curry favor with educated liberals (already the Dems political base), the Biden Administration is preparing to go back to the well once more during an election year.

After moving to forgive some student loan payments, the Biden Administration has yet again reportedly decided to extend its moratorium on student loan payments.

This time, the moratorium (which was previously slated to expire in May) will be extended through the end of August, just before Americans head to the polls for the midterm elections.

Here’s more from Politico, which broke the news of the Administration’s plans (an Administration insider later confirmed the plan to the AP):

The White House plans to once again extend the moratorium on federal student loan payments through the end of August, according to multiple people familiar with the matter, including an administration official.

The announcement, expected on Wednesday, comes as the current pause on payments was set to expire May 1, potentially impacting more than 40 million Americans. The new August 31 extension, however, is considerably shorter than what many Democrats have been requesting. It also tees up another fight over the relief just months before the midterm elections.

As Politico readily admits, this latest extension has a pretty obvious political dimension, thus improving Democrats’ shrinking chances of hanging on to both houses of Congress. This fact will likely trigger backlash from Republicans, who started the moratorium under President Trump.

According to Politico, the administration has already given student loan servicers advance warning of the decision.

Biden administration officials had signaled in recent weeks that they were likely to extend the relief, telling federal student loan servicers to hold off on sending notices to borrowers that their monthly payments would be starting. The U.S. official pointed to Susan Rice, the president’s domestic policy adviser, as key in the negotiations securing the extension.

“Since the beginning of the Administration, she has advocated for each pause on the repayment of student loans, including this most recent one,” the official said.

A range of Democrats had urged the Biden administration to extend the pause on payments through at least the end of 2022, which would be long enough to avoid requiring borrowers to make payments just before the midterm elections. Just last week, nearly 100 lawmakers led by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Majority Leader Chuck Schumer sent a letter to Biden asking him to extend the pause “until at least the end of the year.”

While the White House is only preparing to extend the moratorium through August, a couple of Democratic senators are pushing for a much longer extension.

The Democratic chairs of the congressional education committees – Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and Rep. Bobby Scott (D-Va.) – had also urged the administration to extend the relief until 2023.

“Tens of millions of people with student debt are once again in limbo as Washington plays politics with borrowers’ financial lives,” said Student Borrower Protection Center Executive Director Mike Pierce. “Joe Biden needs to keep his promises to fix the broken student loan system and cancel student debt. As voters head to the polls in November, they will not settle for anything less.”

Of course, that proposal looks tame compared to what progressives like AOC and her fellow “Squad” members have been lobbying for. If they had their druthers, an extended freeze would merely become a prelude to widespread student debt cancellation.

However, advisors on the more moderate end of the Democrats’ political spectrum have warned that the decision to continue freezing payments could backfire for Biden and the Democrats, since it would muddle Biden’s message about the strength of the economy.

Some Biden advisers have been reluctant to continue relief because they believe it undercuts the administration’s messaging on the strength of the economic recovery, though last month White House chief of staff Ron Klain signaled the White House would extend the freeze again.

While progressives love to characterize student loans as a “tax on the poor”, the reality is far more nuanced. As we have pointed out before, Biden’s hopes of forgiving tens of thousands of student loan debt per person would actually represent a major wealth transfer to the middle class.

Federal student loan payments were originally suspended by the Trump administration in March 2020 and extended through January 2021. Since then, the Biden administration has extended the deadline a handful of times, while Democrats have urged Biden to cancel some debt by executive fiat (which he has done, but in a much more limited scope than many probably would have liked).

Circling back to the moderate Dems’ argument about the moratorium undermining confidence in the economy, pretty soon, the Dems may find that they have no choice but to continuously extend the moratorium due to the fact that the student loan bubble is already on the cusp of bursting. Some 36 million Americans who have student loans held by the federal government benefit from the moratorium.

Collectively, they owe $1.37 trillion according to the latest data from the Department of Education. Already, roughly one-third of borrowers are in default or delinquency, while the average payment stands around $400 per month.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 04/05/2022 – 15:45

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Prof. Michael McConnell, Jeff Rosen, and I on the Court’s Recent Free Speech and Religious Freedom Cases

On a Constitution Center podcast:

Last week, the Supreme Court handed down two nearly unanimous decisions in cases involving the First Amendment. One was an 8-1 decision written by Chief Justice John Roberts in Ramirez v. Collier, in which the Court sided with a death row inmate who claimed he had the right to have the religious leader of his choice touch him and pray audibly for him in the execution chamber. The other opinion was 9-0 in Houston Community College v. Wilson, where the Court held that a legislative censure issued by a community college board did not violate the free speech rights of the respondent, another trustee on the board, in an opinion written by Justice Neil Gorsuch.

First Amendment experts Michael McConnell of Stanford Law School and Eugene Volokh of UCLA Law join host Jeffrey Rosen to discuss the opinions’ impact on how we interpret and understand and religious freedom and freedom of speech in America.

The post Prof. Michael McConnell, Jeff Rosen, and I on the Court's Recent Free Speech and Religious Freedom Cases appeared first on Reason.com.

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One Bank Spots A Big Red Flag For Stocks: Buybacks Are Inexplicably Tumbling

One Bank Spots A Big Red Flag For Stocks: Buybacks Are Inexplicably Tumbling

Forget the inverted yield curve and the coming recession: a far more ominous development for stocks has emerged according to Bank of America: stock buybacks are suddenly sliding…

Three weeks ago, when an otherwise bullish Goldman Sachs was urging its clients to (correctly) buy stocks ahead of the quarter-end bear market rally/melt up (the same bear market rally, which Morgan Stanley now says is over), the bank warned that one of the bigger risk factors entering Q1 reporting period is the end of buybacks, and what back then was 45% of the S&P in a buyback blackout has now risen to 95%: 

As Goldman wrote, “the avg notional executed by corporates (street wide) during the open window is ~$4b per day in U.S. mkt. During blackout period our corporate desk’s executions typically decline by 25 – 30%. Fair to assume at least $1b of demand is removed from market place on a daily basis during blackout period.”

And as we approached a full blackout late last week ahead of the upcoming official Q1 earnings launch, the lack of indiscriminate stock buying (by corporations) finally got to the market and we saw the biggest stock drop in weeks amid weakness that has spread into the current week.

So far, so good, but this morning Bank of America quant Jill Carey Hall made an ominous observation: in her weekly equity client flow trends note, she writes that while buybacks typically slow at the end of each quarter ahead of earnings season, buybacks by corporate clients slowed to their lowest weekly level in 12 months, and on a rolling 4-week average basis, are down YoY for the first time since late 2020.

As shown in the chart below, while the $ amount of buybacks in 1Q was above other 1Qs post-crisis, as a % ofS&P 500 market cap, 1Q buybacks were the lowest in five years.

Perhaps even more concerning is that while 1Q S&P 500 buyback announcements (as a % of mkt. cap) – while similar to 1Q21 levels – were 50% below the pre-COVID 5-year avg.

While BofA refuses to argue that buybacks lead to higher stock prices (we are happy to do so: “more buybacks lead to higher stock prices”, there you go) the bank make the point that a “backdrop of more supply (IPOs) and less demand (buybacks) as a reversal of a multi-decade bullish trend for US equities (shrinkage).”

The BofA strategists also note that they see a “greater case for dividends > buybacks in 2022 amid political risks to buybacks, a rising cost of debt (fewer levered buybacks), elevated valuations vs.rising demand for dividend income (10 reasons for S&P 500 dividend growth note).”

Finally, in the aftermath of Starbucks’ shocking announcement earlier this week, when the company’s woke CEO Howard Shultzannounced that he planned to halt share buybacks, effective immediately, in order to “invest more into our people and our stores – the only way to create long-term value for all stakeholders”, could it now be the case that the only companies that pursue critical – for shareholders – buybacks are the unwoke ones.

Considering the tremendous gains by “evil, dirty, and unsnowflake” fossil fuel companies in recent months – just as we predicted would happen in 2020 – is corporate America about to suffer another clear example of “get woke, go broke”, and is the blowback against corporate wokeism – observed in the past 24 hours with Elon Musk effectively taking control of that woke, circle-jerking echo chamber cesspool of liberal “bluechecks” that is Twitter – about to finally hit, because while everyone can pretend to be all up with the latest snowflake bullshit, once people’s money is on the line it’s amazing how everyone remembers that only one “green” matters and that conservative values actually are far more beneficial for one’s financial health than socialist liberal ones.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 04/05/2022 – 15:26

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Prof. Michael McConnell, Jeff Rosen, and I on the Court’s Recent Free Speech and Religious Freedom Cases

On a Constitution Center podcast:

Last week, the Supreme Court handed down two nearly unanimous decisions in cases involving the First Amendment. One was an 8-1 decision written by Chief Justice John Roberts in Ramirez v. Collier, in which the Court sided with a death row inmate who claimed he had the right to have the religious leader of his choice touch him and pray audibly for him in the execution chamber. The other opinion was 9-0 in Houston Community College v. Wilson, where the Court held that a legislative censure issued by a community college board did not violate the free speech rights of the respondent, another trustee on the board, in an opinion written by Justice Neil Gorsuch.

First Amendment experts Michael McConnell of Stanford Law School and Eugene Volokh of UCLA Law join host Jeffrey Rosen to discuss the opinions’ impact on how we interpret and understand and religious freedom and freedom of speech in America.

The post Prof. Michael McConnell, Jeff Rosen, and I on the Court's Recent Free Speech and Religious Freedom Cases appeared first on Reason.com.

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NIH Working To Keep Taxpayers In The Dark by Stalling On Fauci Docs: Transparency Advocate

NIH Working To Keep Taxpayers In The Dark by Stalling On Fauci Docs: Transparency Advocate

Authored by Jan Jekielek and Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

The National Institutes of Health (NIH) is attempting to keep money spent on things like Dr. Anthony Fauci’s salary, the highest-paid U.S. government employee, hidden from members of the public, according to a transparency advocate.

“There is a multi-layered strategy, funded by taxpayers, to keep taxpayers in the dark about how NIH is spending taxpayer money,” Adam Andrzejewski, CEO and founder of OpenTheBooks.com, told Epoch TV’s “American Thought Leaders.”

Andrzejewski’s watchdog group discovered how much Fauci was getting paid and that he received a permanent pay bump in the early 2000s in part to prevent him from leaving the government.

Adam Andrzejewski, the CEO and founder of the government watchdog organization OpenTheBooks.com, in Washington on March 22, 2022. (Courtesy of the Conservative Partnership Institute)

In an effort to learn more about the top doctor, the group filed a Freedom of Information Act request on Jan. 28, 2021, asking for Fauci’s job description, disclosure documents, and other papers.

The NIH produced 51 pages of records in response to the request but did not provide any additional documents, nor did the agency produce records in response to two more requests from the group about documents related to Fauci, according to a lawsuit filed in federal court.

“They’re not complying with open records law,” Andrzejewski said, triggering the suit and dozens of others from various groups.

The NIH said it did not violate the law. U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta, an Obama appointee, ordered the parties to try to work out a solution. The parties agreed to a production schedule of 300 pages a month but so far, the produced pages have amounted to “virtually nothing of any value,” Andrzejewski said, in part because some of the pages have been largely redacted.

Fauci has directed the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1984. The institute, part of the NIH, did not respond to a request for comment.

Andrzejewski, who was removed as a Forbes contributor because of his reporting on Fauci, said he expects to see waivers for conflicts of interest, including a waiver regarding the doctor’s wife, Christine Grady, because she is the chief bioethics official at NIH.

The documents being sought “should be immediately released by the NIH,” he added.

We shouldn’t be having to engage in expensive litigation to open the books on Dr. Anthony Fauci or even to call for a nice repository of all the ethical studies from his wife, Christine Grady. All of this should be opened up. And this has public policy implications. If the Republicans take control the House, there is going to be endless oversight investigations of this entire COVID-19 response, with Dr. Fauci at the nexus of that hurricane. And so right now, they should get out in front of all of it and just open the books on everything, so the politicians, the pundits, the media, the people, so we can see how the sausage was made from A to Z.”

Tyler Durden
Tue, 04/05/2022 – 15:09

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Heated Exchange Between Gaetz & Pentagon Chief On Russia, China: “I’m Embarrassed By Your Leadership!”

Heated Exchange Between Gaetz & Pentagon Chief On Russia, China: “I’m Embarrassed By Your Leadership!”

Fireworks erupted during a Tuesday hearing over America’s Ukraine response before the House Armed Services Committee, where US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin sought to defend the Biden administration’s response.

Things were fairly low-key until it was Florida Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz’s turn to question Austin. Gaetz went through a litany of Pentagon failures and “so many blown calls” – including inaccurately assessing Russian military capability. Austin shot back: “Has it occurred to you that Russia has not overrun Ukraine because of what we’ve done? And our allies have done? Have you ever even thought about that?” Watch the fiery exchange unfold:

“You guys told us that Russia couldn’t lose, you told us that the Taliban couldn’t immediately win. So I guess I’m wondering: what in the $773 billion that you’re requesting today is gonna help you make assessments that are accurate in the face of so many blown calls,” Gaetz said.

They then clashed over hypersonics and the US “being behind” and with China gaining a major edge. At that point to two spoke over each other. 

Austin argued back that robust US action in supporting its Ukrainian ally has actually thwarted Moscow’s aim at a swift victory. He also charged that Gaetz is “embarrassed” by his country, to which the Republican rep said back: “No. I am embarrassed by your leadership!”

“I am not embarrassed by my country. I wish we were not losing to China,” as the two tangled and spoke loudly over each other.

That’s when Gaetz recalled: “You guys said that Russia would overrun Ukraine in 36 days…” He added: “You totally blew those calls.”

Elsewhere in his testimony, Austin hailed that the US had provided Ukraine with one billion dollars in aid ahead of the Russian invasion…

The Pentagon chief further said an additional billion dollars in “security assistance” is being rushed and on the way. 

Tyler Durden
Tue, 04/05/2022 – 14:45

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Rhode Island Senators Consider Two Paths To Decriminalizing Prostitution


coyote

Rhode Island is the latest locale to mull decriminalizing prostitution, with two different bills to this effect getting hearings in the state Senate’s Judiciary Committee today.

From a criminal justice reform and civil liberties perspective, the most promising of these bills is S2713, drafted by the sex worker advocacy group Call Off Your Old Tired Ethics Rhode Island (COYOTE RI). The bill—introduced by state Sens. Cynthia Mendes (D–East Providence & Pawtucket) and Jeanine Calkin (D–Warwick)—would decriminalize selling sex, paying for sex, and a number of other consensual activities related to commercial sexual activity.

Under Mendes and Calkin’s bill, Rhode Island’s laws criminalizing prostitution, procurement of sexual conduct for a fee, loitering for prostitution, soliciting from motor vehicles for indecent purposes, pandering or permitting prostitution, and refusing to comply with examination and treatment for venereal disease protocols would be repealed.

The measure would also expunge the records of people previously convicted of violating these laws, with the exception of permitting prostitution or pandering. 

“Sex workers and sex trafficking survivors are marginalized and urgently need access to the equal protections of the justice system,” said representatives from COYOTE RI in a letter to the Senate Judiciary Committee.

“In a survey of 63 Rhode Island sex workers that COYOTE conducted in conjunction with Brown University…79% of sex workers who had tried to report a crime to police reported that they were turned away, 21% reported that they were [threatened] with arrest, and 6% said they were actually arrested while trying to report a crime to police,” states COYOTE’s letter. The group argues that criminalizing prostitution makes current and former sex workers vulnerable to homelessness, housing insecurity, employment discrimination, financial discrimination, and discrimination in child custody proceedings.

COYOTE RI Executive Director Bella Robinson tells Reason that they don’t think the bill will get past committee, but “it’s part of a strategy to start a conversation.”

The Rhode Island Senate Judiciary Committee is also considering S2716, which would decriminalize prostitution but make it a civil violation, punishable by a fine of up to $250. (Under current Rhode Island law, prostitution is a misdemeanor offense punishable by up to six months in jail and a $1,000 fine.) Procurement of sexual conduct for a fee, loitering for prostitution, and soliciting from motor vehicles for indecent purposes would also become civil offenses (and offenders would be subject to fines rather than incarceration).

This bill—from Calkin and three other Democratic senators—would leave in place a law that states that those cited “may be examined by the department of health for venereal disease” and, if found to have a disease and be infectious, treated and potentially quarantined. But refusal to comply would also go from a misdemeanor crime punishable by imprisonment to a civil violation punishable by a fine of up to $250.

Robinson says S2716 doesn’t go far enough but is “a step in the right direction.”

She and COYOTE RI are also backing Senate Bill 2233, which says that “peace officers” (a designation that includes police, fire marshals, corrections officers, and others) aren’t allowed to have sex with people detained, in police custody, under arrest, imprisoned, in a work-release program, or on probation, parole, or any other form of supervised release. Doing so would be considered sexual assault.

This bill makes clear what should always be the legal standard — those being
detained or in police custody should never be subject to sexual abuse or rape from
‘peace officers,'” wrote Robinson in a letter to lawmakers. “It is common sense that those who are detained or under arrest are legally incapable of consenting to sexual acts with peace officers who hold enormous power over them.”

Robinson and COYOTE suggest adding “people under investigation” to the categories of people with whom law enforcement officers are not allowed to have sex.

Advancing any of these measures beyond committee is a long shot, says Robinson.

Still, their introduction is more than most state legislatures have mustered and marks Rhode Island as a state that could pave the way for others in advancing sex worker rights and reforming prostitution laws.

Last year, the state created a study commission “to make a comprehensive study and provide recommendations on the health and safety impact of revising laws related to commercial sexual activity.” The commission began meeting last fall.

In 1980, on the heels of a lawsuit filed by COYOTE, the state revised its law against “lewd and indecent acts” to ban street solicitation but not sex work that took place indoors, meaning indoor prostitution in the state was effectively decriminalized from 1980 until 2009. That year, decriminalization fell prey to growing hysteria about human trafficking, and the state passed a measure to make indoor prostitution explicitly illegal once again.

Unsurprisingly, the sponsor of that 2009 bill—Joanne Giannini, now a freelance writer—has been speaking out against the current decriminalization efforts, suggesting that it would make Rhode Island a “safe haven for sex trafficking and human trafficking.” Contra Giannini, however, the decriminalization bills would change nothing about Rhode Island’s laws against trafficking someone for forced labor or prostitution, nor the state’s laws against “patronizing a victim of sexual servitude” or “patronizing a minor for commercial sexual activity.”

The post Rhode Island Senators Consider Two Paths To Decriminalizing Prostitution appeared first on Reason.com.

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Washington S. Ct. Reverses Attempted Child Rape Conviction, Remands for Retrial with Entrapment Instruction

From Thursday’s opinion in State v. Arbogast, written by Justice Barbara Madsen:

Arbogast testified that his wife of 48 years underwent surgery, after which sex became painful. Consequently, Arbogast began looking online for casual sexual encounters with other women. He responded to numerous personal ads, eventually leading to no-strings-attached sex.

Shortly after a successful casual encounter, Arbogast responded to an online ad posted by “Brandi,” an undercover Washington State Patrol officer. {The ad stated:

Mommy likes to watch—young family fun—420 friendly—w4m (Rich$land) Mommy luvs to watch family fun time. Looking for that special someone to play with. 100% I know this is a long shot but I have been looking for this for a long item [sic] and haven’t had any luck. looking for something real and taboo. If this is still up then I am still looking. send me your name and your favorite color so I know you are not a bot. I like to watch ddlg daddy/dau, mommy/dau mommy/son.

The abbreviation “w4m” means woman for man, “420 friendly” relates to cannabis, and “ddlg” is the abbreviation for daddy, daughter, little girl.}

After initial introductions were made, Brandi e-mailed Arbogast that she was “single and looking for some one that is open and free to new ideas.” Arbogast then asked Brandi specifically to tell him about herself. She explained that she started sleeping with her father when she was young, and that she wanted her “kids to experience the same closeness” and needed “a techer [sic] to help them with sex when they get older.” Brandi clarified that she had “lost [her] attraction to men” and was instead interested in “young boys about [her] sons [sic] age.” Arbogast responded that he was “probably a we [sic] bit older and … can be easy and exploring into everything you might desire. So if you want to try someone older, game on.” Brandi also stated that her family already had experience with a sexual teacher who moved away due to military commitments.

At this point in the conversation, Arbogast texted that he reread Brandi’s first e-mails and told her that he had not had sex with children and was interested in her.

E.g., id. at 3 (texts at 7:15:42 PM, 7:19:25 PM) (“just wanted to be with mom,” “[d]on’t known if [he] could help do kids,” and “never thought about that way”). Brandi replied that she was not looking for a partner for herself, but for her children. After texting that he had not tried young kids, Arbogast said had looked at young girls and would “like to try a young lady once.” Id. at 4 (text at 7:29:22 PM). Arbogast then texted that he did not think he could devote the time “necessary for this training” for the children and asked to meet with Brandi publicly for coffee to discuss it further. Id. (texts at 7:41:27 PM, 7:49:06 PM). Brandi reaffirmed that she was not looking for a partner herself and that she homeschooled the children, allowing her to keep their “secrets.” Id. at 5 (texts at 7:56:35 PM, 7:57:06 PM). Arbogast texted back: “And my secret as well if chosen.” Id. (text at 7:58:14 PM).

Brandi and Arbogast then exchanged photos. Arbogast texted that he wanted to give Brandi “TLC [(tender loving care)].” Id. at 5 (texts at 8:16:57 PM, 8:20:02 PM). Brandi answered that she “could get inv[ol]ved with [Arbogast] and [J]ake [(her son)] after a few good sessions of you two but [was] not into it” and asked Arbogast to “change [her] mind about us hooking up?” Id. (texts at 8:21:35 PM, 8:22:26 PM). In response, Arbogast stated, “OK you mean I need to groom the boy alone? What about your princess[?]” and “Never have done kids before.” Id. at 6 (texts at 8:23:47 PM, 8:24:12 PM). After exchanging another series of texts discussing how frequently Arbogast would meet with the children, he texted “we should meet and try it out.” Id. (text at 8:31:00 PM). Brandi outlined the rules, saying there could be no pain, no anal penetration, condoms were required, he would stop when asked, and he could not get the daughter pregnant. The rules also required Arbogast to come to her home and when he arrived “we all get naked.” Id. (text at 8:36:34 PM). Arbogast agreed, stating that he was sterile and looking for oral and regular sex. Minutes later, Arbogast repeated that he was interested in Brandi romantically, but she clarified that she would not be involved.

Brandi texted that they should meet soon so that she would be “less cautious its [sic] not a set up,” and she suggested that Arbogast come over to her apartment that night. Id. at 8 (texts at 9:00:05 PM, 9:06:18 PM). Brandi instructed Arbogast to bring condoms and lubricant, and said that she had to prepare the children. Arbogast again responded that he “[had] not done this before” but “[c]ould do almost anything without penetration.” Id. at 9 (text at 9:19:42 PM). When Brandi asked if Arbogast wanted the daughter or son or both, he responded he wanted the daughter dressed in “[j]ust under things” and would perform and receive oral sex. Id. at 9-10 (texts at 9:21:40 PM, 9:22:34 PM, 9:25:17 PM, 9:26:18 PM, 9:27:15 PM, 9:28:14 PM).

On arriving at the apartment, Arbogast was arrested. He did not have condoms or lubricant; he agreed to speak with the detectives, allowing them to search his phone and car. Arbogast was interrogated at the apartment site and took a polygraph examination. The polygraph indicated that Arbogast showed no deception when he answered he had no previous sexual contact with anyone under the age of 16. Arbogast’s phone showed no evidence of child pornography or that he sought sex with children in the past.

Arbogast was charged with two counts of attempted child rape in the first and second degree. In pretrial motions, Arbogast sought to admit the results of his polygraph on the question of whether he had ever tried to engage in sexual contact with children and to call the officer who administered the test as an expert witness, as relevant to entrapment. Alternatively, Arbogast argued the polygraph should be admitted to determine only whether an entrapment instruction was allowed. The motions were denied because the State was unwilling to stipulate to the admissibility of the polygraph. Arbogast also sought a jury instruction on entrapment. The court reserved that motion for resolution at trial.

In its own pretrial motions, the State sought to prohibit any mention of Arbogast’s lack of criminal history. The court agreed, finding it was premature until Arbogast presented evidence of government inducement or luring, another requirement of entrapment.

At trial, Arbogast testified that he never intended to have sex with children. Arbogast responded to the online ad because he wanted a casual sexual encounter with an adult woman. Arbogast had previously met with a woman before in response to such an ad. Despite Brandi’s put-offs, Arbogast testified that he thought he could persuade Brandi and so continued to play along, indicating interest in the children only to get on the mother’s good side. Despite acknowledging the conversation with Brandi concerned sex with her children, Arbogast maintained that he did not intend to act on his statements. A police officer who had spoken to Arbogast after his arrest testified that Arbogast said he intended “be with the children,” but admitted on cross-examination that it was unclear whether Arbogast meant to have sex with the children or just be present with them.

At the conclusion of its case, the State argued an entrapment instruction was not justified because Arbogast failed to show government inducement and a lack of predisposition by a preponderance of the evidence. The court agreed, concluding that there was some evidence to support luring but no more than normal. The court therefore denied the entrapment instruction and precluded evidence showing the absence of a criminal record to show lack of predisposition.

A jury convicted Arbogast of both counts of attempted child rape. He received a standard range sentence of 90 and 76.5 months respectively for the two charges, to be served concurrently.

The Washington Supreme Court majority applied the Washington entrapment statute, which provides:

(1) In any prosecution for a crime, it is a defense [that defendants must prove by a preponderance of the evidence] that:

(a) The criminal design originated in the mind of law enforcement officials, or any person acting under their direction, and

(b) The actor was lured or induced to commit a crime which the actor had not otherwise intended to commit.

(2) The defense of entrapment is not established by a showing only that law enforcement officials merely afforded the actor an opportunity to commit a crime.

And the majority concluded that there was enough evidence of entrapment that the jury should have been instructed to consider the defense and decide whether the elements were met:

Inducement evidence may be based on persuasion, fraudulent representations, threats, coercion, harassment, promises of reward, pleas based on need, and sympathy or friendship. Inducement asks whether police went beyond simply providing a defendant with the opportunity to commit the offense.

In this case, the trial court found Brandi’s statement that she could get involved with Arbogast after some sessions with her child constituted evidence of luring by offering a reward for engagement in the illegal behavior. However, the court was convinced that the police engaged in only a “normal amount of persuasion.” But, that is a jury question. United States v. Poehlman (9th Cir. 2000), is a similar “sexual mentor” case. There the defendant visited online discussion groups looking for a companion. The defendant responded to an ad from an undercover officer posing as a mother in search of someone to fill her family’s “unique needs.” The mother first suggested that the defendant develop a relationship with her children. She relayed her own sexual education with a teacher and sought the same experience for her children. The Ninth Circuit concluded that the defendant was induced to commit the crime of engaging in sex acts with a minor, noting that he was originally interested in a relationship with the mother, who explained over the course of their communication that sex with her children was required for her continued interest.

Poehlman recognized that parental consent is no defense to rape, but it “can have an effect on the ‘self-struggle [to] resist ordinary temptations.'” Consent, characterizing the activity as a part of parents’ responsibility to their children, and selecting a sexual teacher as an expression of confidence can allay a defendant’s fears that an act is harmful, distasteful, or inappropriate….

As in Poehlman, it was the undercover officer Brandi, rather than Arbogast, who first raised the idea that he be a sexual mentor to children. In their initial exchange of messages, Brandi brought up her own sexual history, explaining that she began sleeping with her father when she was young and her mother understood this sexual relationship. Brandi wanted the same “closeness” for her children, prompting her to find another sexual teacher for them. Discussing her past experience and offering that another man had already served as a teacher, Brandi arguably validated what she was offering to Arbogast—a taboo and illegal sexual relationship. She explained that she sought someone who understood her children’s sexual needs regardless of society’s acceptance, attempting to dispel fears Arbogast may have had that the activities would be inappropriate.

Additionally, like the defendant in Poehlman, Arbogast continually stated that he was looking for an adult relationship. Brandi opened their conversation by telling Arbogast that she was single and looking for someone open to new ideas. Arbogast responded by asking Brandi to tell him about herself. When presented with the idea of having sex with children, Arbogast said that he had never done so: “Never have done that. I just wanted to be with mom. Don’t know if I could help do kids.” He also stated that he could not devote enough time for sexual training and asked to meet with Brandi publicly to discuss it. In the midst of their text messages, Arbogast told Brandi specifically that he wanted to give her “TLC.” Though Brandi repeated that she was not interested in a sexual relationship for herself, she raised the possibility that she “could get involved with [Arbogast] and [J]ake [(her son)] after a few good sessions of you two.” Again, similar to Poehlman, Brandi made sex with her children a condition of her interest in Arbogast. According to Arbogast, he engaged in that discussion as “BS-ing” with Brandi and “going with the flow” in order to eventually have sex with her.

Inducement is not merely government presentation of an opportunity to commit a crime. There must be opportunity “plus” something else, such as excessive pressure placed on the defendant. Yet “even very subtle governmental pressure, if skillfully applied, can amount to inducement.” Here, as in Poehlman, a jury could conclude that the police induced Arbogast to commit the charged crime….

Here, the police created and executed the online sting operation, providing some evidence to satisfy the first requirement of an entrapment defense. Arbogast also presented evidence that Brandi induced him to commit a crime that he was not predisposed to commit, satisfying the luring element of the defense. This evidence satisfies the required quantum of proof to obtain an entrapment instruction.

Justice Mary Yu, joined by Chief Justice Steven Gonzalez, dissented:

The evidence shows only “a normal amount of persuasion” coupled with “[t]he mere use of a decoy or informer to present an individual with an opportunity to commit a crime,” which “does not in itself constitute entrapment.” …

Arbogast contends he was induced to commit the attempted rape of two children because “Brandi,” the fictional children’s purported mother, allegedly conditioned Arbogast’s sexual relationship with her on Arbogast’s sexual assault of her children. However, he did not produce any evidence to support this contention. To the contrary, when Arbogast texted Brandi to say, “I just wanted to be with mom,” Brandi promptly responded, “[T]hanks for not wasting our time. I am not looking for me. I am looking for someone to be with my kids. [G]ood luck with what it is you seek.” Brandi did not condition sex with her on the sexual assault of her children; she unequivocally told Arbogast that she would not have sex with him.

Nevertheless, Arbogast continued to text Brandi, telling her that although he had “not tried young kids” before, he “[w]ould like to try a young lady once.” After some further discussion about arranging for Arbogast to sexually assault the children, it was Arbogast, not Brandi, who again raised the possibility of an adult sexual relationship, asking, “You sure you don’t need some [TLC]?” It was only at this point that Brandi suggested she “could get involved with [Arbogast] and [J]ake [(her 13-year-old son)] after a few good sessions of you two,” but she repeated that she was “not into it,” and did not “want to take away from [the] kids[‘] exper[ie]nce.”

Thus, even when Brandi attempted a normal degree of persuasion by suggesting she might eventually have some involvement with Arbogast, she did not offer a sexual relationship with her on the condition that Arbogast first sexually assault her children. Instead, Brandi made it clear that all of Arbogast’s sexual relations with her family would involve at least one of her children. And when it appeared to Arbogast that he would “need to groom the boy alone,” Arbogast immediately asked, “What about your princess,” meaning Brandi’s 11-year-old daughter. Brandi assured Arbogast that her daughter “is very curious and is in the prime time to learn.”

Brandi and Arbogast discussed the “rules” that would apply to Arbogast’s sexual assault of the children, which Arbogast readily agreed to, and then Brandi sent Arbogast a photograph of her fictional family. Arbogast said, “I’m in if you want an old guy,” and Brandi again reiterated, “[I] have to be clear [I] am not involved … [I] don[‘]t want you to be disappointed and especially don[‘]t want my kids disappo[i]nted.” Arbogast agreed.

This is not a case in which the jury must make a credibility determination based on conflicting evidence. The recorded text message exchange unequivocally shows that Brandi never conditioned Arbogast’s sexual relationship with her on whether Arbogast would sexually assault her children. Even after Arbogast agreed to assault the children, Brandi did not give any assurance that she would become involved with Arbogast. At the most, Brandi did not say no to Arbogast when he repeatedly initiated the possibility of a future relationship. This is not evidence of inducement. Rather, the police used permissible deception and artifice to present Arbogast with an opportunity to commit the crime of attempted child rape, which he took….

This case is not like Poehlman. Here, Brandi mentioned only once that she had experience with a sexual mentor, and she did not offer any “special incentive[s]” or “important symbol[s] of acceptance and friendship” to Arbogast. Moreover, the text message exchange between Brandi and Arbogast lasted “less than five hours,” unlike the “protracted,” “intimate,” months-long exchange at issue in Poehlman. Arbogast, like Poehlman, may have sought an adult relationship with an undercover police officer, but unlike the officer in Poehlman, Brandi did not “encourage[ ]” Arbogast’s “fantasies” about this adult relationship. The actions of the police in relation to Arbogast were far from the “aggressive intervention” the police used in relation to Poehlman.

The police offered Arbogast the opportunity to participate in the crime of attempted child rape, and he took it. This is not inducement….

The post Washington S. Ct. Reverses Attempted Child Rape Conviction, Remands for Retrial with Entrapment Instruction appeared first on Reason.com.

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Rhode Island Senators Consider Two Paths To Decriminalizing Prostitution


coyote

Rhode Island is the latest locale to mull decriminalizing prostitution, with two different bills to this effect getting hearings in the state Senate’s Judiciary Committee today.

From a criminal justice reform and civil liberties perspective, the most promising of these bills is S2713, drafted by the sex worker advocacy group Call Off Your Old Tired Ethics Rhode Island (COYOTE RI). The bill—introduced by state Sens. Cynthia Mendes (D–East Providence & Pawtucket) and Jeanine Calkin (D–Warwick)—would decriminalize selling sex, paying for sex, and a number of other consensual activities related to commercial sexual activity.

Under Mendes and Calkin’s bill, Rhode Island’s laws criminalizing prostitution, procurement of sexual conduct for a fee, loitering for prostitution, soliciting from motor vehicles for indecent purposes, pandering or permitting prostitution, and refusing to comply with examination and treatment for venereal disease protocols would be repealed.

The measure would also expunge the records of people previously convicted of violating these laws, with the exception of permitting prostitution or pandering. 

“Sex workers and sex trafficking survivors are marginalized and urgently need access to the equal protections of the justice system,” said representatives from COYOTE RI in a letter to the Senate Judiciary Committee.

“In a survey of 63 Rhode Island sex workers that COYOTE conducted in conjunction with Brown University…79% of sex workers who had tried to report a crime to police reported that they were turned away, 21% reported that they were [threatened] with arrest, and 6% said they were actually arrested while trying to report a crime to police,” states COYOTE’s letter. The group argues that criminalizing prostitution makes current and former sex workers vulnerable to homelessness, housing insecurity, employment discrimination, financial discrimination, and discrimination in child custody proceedings.

COYOTE RI Executive Director Bella Robinson tells Reason that they don’t think the bill will get past committee, but “it’s part of a strategy to start a conversation.”

The Rhode Island Senate Judiciary Committee is also considering S2716, which would decriminalize prostitution but make it a civil violation, punishable by a fine of up to $250. (Under current Rhode Island law, prostitution is a misdemeanor offense punishable by up to six months in jail and a $1,000 fine.) Procurement of sexual conduct for a fee, loitering for prostitution, and soliciting from motor vehicles for indecent purposes would also become civil offenses (and offenders would be subject to fines rather than incarceration).

This bill—from Calkin and three other Democratic senators—would leave in place a law that states that those cited “may be examined by the department of health for venereal disease” and, if found to have a disease and be infectious, treated and potentially quarantined. But refusal to comply would also go from a misdemeanor crime punishable by imprisonment to a civil violation punishable by a fine of up to $250.

Robinson says S2716 doesn’t go far enough but is “a step in the right direction.”

She and COYOTE RI are also backing Senate Bill 2233, which says that “peace officers” (a designation that includes police, fire marshals, corrections officers, and others) aren’t allowed to have sex with people detained, in police custody, under arrest, imprisoned, in a work-release program, or on probation, parole, or any other form of supervised release. Doing so would be considered sexual assault.

This bill makes clear what should always be the legal standard — those being
detained or in police custody should never be subject to sexual abuse or rape from
‘peace officers,'” wrote Robinson in a letter to lawmakers. “It is common sense that those who are detained or under arrest are legally incapable of consenting to sexual acts with peace officers who hold enormous power over them.”

Robinson and COYOTE suggest adding “people under investigation” to the categories of people with whom law enforcement officers are not allowed to have sex.

Advancing any of these measures beyond committee is a long shot, says Robinson.

Still, their introduction is more than most state legislatures have mustered and marks Rhode Island as a state that could pave the way for others in advancing sex worker rights and reforming prostitution laws.

Last year, the state created a study commission “to make a comprehensive study and provide recommendations on the health and safety impact of revising laws related to commercial sexual activity.” The commission began meeting last fall.

In 1980, on the heels of a lawsuit filed by COYOTE, the state revised its law against “lewd and indecent acts” to ban street solicitation but not sex work that took place indoors, meaning indoor prostitution in the state was effectively decriminalized from 1980 until 2009. That year, decriminalization fell prey to growing hysteria about human trafficking, and the state passed a measure to make indoor prostitution explicitly illegal once again.

Unsurprisingly, the sponsor of that 2009 bill—Joanne Giannini, now a freelance writer—has been speaking out against the current decriminalization efforts, suggesting that it would make Rhode Island a “safe haven for sex trafficking and human trafficking.” Contra Giannini, however, the decriminalization bills would change nothing about Rhode Island’s laws against trafficking someone for forced labor or prostitution, nor the state’s laws against “patronizing a victim of sexual servitude” or “patronizing a minor for commercial sexual activity.”

The post Rhode Island Senators Consider Two Paths To Decriminalizing Prostitution appeared first on Reason.com.

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Putin’s Inflation? Homegrown Modern Monetary Theory Is To Blame

Putin’s Inflation? Homegrown Modern Monetary Theory Is To Blame

Authored by Vibhu Vikramaditya via The Mises Institute,

Prices of goods and services in the economy seem to be going through the roof, and both consumers and producers suffer from the falling value of their money. Unfortunately, the public turns to politicians in Washington and economists around the world for answers.

While president Joe Biden and his administration call it Putin’s price hike, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that over the last twelve months, the all items index increased 7.9 percent before seasonal adjustment. The reported twelve-month increase has been steadily rising and is now the largest since the period ending January 1982. The all items less food and energy index rose 6.4 percent, the largest twelve-month change since the period ending August 1982. The energy index rose 25.6 percent over the last year, and the food index increased 7.9 percent, the largest twelve-month increase since the period ending July 1981.

Meanwhile, the government’s debt has exploded to $30 trillion, up from about $10 trillion at the start of the 2008 downturn and $5 trillion in the mid-1990s. While such startling evidence is directly in contradiction with the official narrative of the White House, political elites either ignore the problem altogether or blame the wrong people. Part of the root of this calamity is found in the foundation of economic beliefs of the Biden administration.

Even though Treasury secretary Janet Yellen has distanced herself from modern monetary theory (MMT), as a student of James Tobin, she continues to remain an inflationist who believes that government should play a more active role in the economy. For example, she supported the $1.9 trillion stimulus plan signed in March 2020 even though the money was created from thin air. While she does not officially endorse MMT, nonetheless her views of economics do not stray far from MMT orthodoxy.

Stephanie Kelton, author of The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and the Birth of the People’s Economy, also began doing regular interviews on the topic, becoming the de facto face of the MMT movement. She served as an economic adviser to Sen. Bernie Sanders during his presidential campaign and has since advised the Biden administration as well, going as far as to declare that Biden has adopted her principles.

What Is Modern Monetary Theory?

Modern monetary theory begins with the government budget constraint under a system of fiat money. According to William Mitchell, L. Randall Wray, and Martin Watts in Macroeconomics, the standard MMT approach, which relates the present value of tax revenue to the present value of government spending and the government debt, is misleading. Further,

the most important conclusion reached by MMT is that the issuer of a currency faces no financial constraints. Put simply, a country that issues its own currency can never run out and can never become insolvent in its currency. It can make all payments as they come due. (p. 13)

As a result, “For most governments, there is no default risk on government debt” (p. 15).

The most important implication of such a radical theory is that government enjoys potentially limitless power as an arbitrator in the economy. Based on this theory, Congress supposedly can use the printing press effectively via accumulation of debt, raising aggregate demand to the level of full employment. Inflation, according to MMT theorists, is a phenomenon borne out of the class conflicts between workers and capitalists as they jostle for higher shares of the national income (Macroeconomics, p. 255). According to them, moreover, virtually “all spending (private or public) is inflationary if it drives nominal aggregate demand above the real capacity of the economy to absorb it” (Macroeconomics, p. 127).

As is the case with most “crank” theories, the world that this theory describes can never come to life. Full employment is not a criterion that real prices wait for to increase as buyers and sellers compete for scarce resources in the market economy. The view that inflation is a purely monetary phenomenon and that inflation takes place that is beyond the economy’s absorbing capacity are both true to an extent, but both miss the vital picture of the interconnectedness of the market economy.

Inflation in the Structure of Production

The general increase in the price level, as the mainstream and MMT theorists want to believe, does not come directly from an increase in money supply or full employment (the “overheated” economy) but from an increase in the scarcity of goods and services whose ability to impact the prices of other goods and services is relatively higher and whose production takes substantial time. The full employment criterion of MMT is therefore not needed for prices to start increasing, as economists like Murray N. Rothbard have demonstrated when they refer to “stagflation,” the simultaneous increase of inflation and unemployment.

The structure of production in the economy starts with goods produced at the primary stages and ends with the final goods used by consumers. Goods used in the primary stages of the structure of production are created through agriculture, forestry, fishing, mining, oil extraction, and other natural resources. These inputs form the base of almost every other product or service provided to consumers. Due to their vital role as the base products of the economy, these products’ price changes due to changes in demand are the most inflationary to all other goods.

The second most effective influencers of prices of other goods are the semifinished goods and services used as inputs by producers during the middle stages to create final goods and services. Given their nongeneral nature, these goods, such as steel and plastic, are used by multiple producers for various next-stage goods. As demand for semifinished goods increases due to increased competition among producers of final goods, it exerts inflationary pressures directly on final-goods prices.

When additional money is introduced into the economy as a result of increased government spending, it leads consumers to increase their consumption of final goods due to their increased money balances. As demand for final goods increases, producers of final goods look to purchase more primary order goods and various other intermediate goods, whose scarcity then increases due to increased competition among producers, which leads to an increase in these goods’ prices.

This reorients prices of the entire structure of production, and the shift is then observed as a general increase in prices through various indexes. The severity of increases in prices depends upon the ability to meet the increased demand for base goods and intermediate goods. 

We can understand that inflation is a phenomenon that takes place due to changes in scarcity as a result of increased competition between producers each pursuing their independent ends. While increases in prices are a part of the adaptive market process that guides production and consumption, soaring inflation levels or sudden general increases in prices require an additional generation of money in the economy that is more than the money created through consumer and producer credit in the natural course of the economy. Had the changes in money supply been internal to the economy, the adaptive market process would have worked to allocate goods efficiently.

When governments create artificial demand and try to increase their spending in an unchecked manner, they effectively create inflationary pressures in the structure of production. At the same time, they also destroy the allocating price mechanism of the markets, which gets worse the more they spend. While printing and digitally transferring money might take seconds, production and distribution takes much longer.

The Proper Role of Prices in the Market Process

As Congress armed with MMT attempts to dictate the course of the economy based on their political leanings, it leads to distortions of prices in the structure of production, but the rise in prices is not the problem per se. The rise in prices in a well-functioning market has a specific role; when an object of use becomes scarce in the market, it is a signal to consumers to economize on it. At the same time, price increases point in the direction of a more profitable employment of resources—production of the expensive good—until supernormal profits are exhausted. When prices rise artificially, however, this destroys the efficient allocation mechanism of markets and is a tax levied on consumers that reduces the purchasing power of their money, as well as their saved-up wealth.

Inflation-driven price increases act as signals that misdirect the employment of resources, leading producers to make inefficient choices and allocate factors erroneously. They undermine the trust in the price mechanism from all sides. Prices in this situation are like traffic signals that always misdirect traffic.

Conclusion

The only thing modern about MMT is the unprecedented amount of confidence in both its advocacy and application. The US economy already has experienced the Keynesian spending spree of the sixties, which ended in the stagflation of the seventies. When the government’s economic policies are based on the belief that the government can print unlimited amounts of money with little or no repercussions, we should not be surprised to find ourselves living under the most inflationary period in forty years.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 04/05/2022 – 14:27

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