Washington S. Ct. Reverses Attempted Child Rape Conviction, Remands for Retrial with Entrapment Instruction

From Thursday’s opinion in State v. Arbogast, written by Justice Barbara Madsen:

Arbogast testified that his wife of 48 years underwent surgery, after which sex became painful. Consequently, Arbogast began looking online for casual sexual encounters with other women. He responded to numerous personal ads, eventually leading to no-strings-attached sex.

Shortly after a successful casual encounter, Arbogast responded to an online ad posted by “Brandi,” an undercover Washington State Patrol officer. {The ad stated:

Mommy likes to watch—young family fun—420 friendly—w4m (Rich$land) Mommy luvs to watch family fun time. Looking for that special someone to play with. 100% I know this is a long shot but I have been looking for this for a long item [sic] and haven’t had any luck. looking for something real and taboo. If this is still up then I am still looking. send me your name and your favorite color so I know you are not a bot. I like to watch ddlg daddy/dau, mommy/dau mommy/son.

The abbreviation “w4m” means woman for man, “420 friendly” relates to cannabis, and “ddlg” is the abbreviation for daddy, daughter, little girl.}

After initial introductions were made, Brandi e-mailed Arbogast that she was “single and looking for some one that is open and free to new ideas.” Arbogast then asked Brandi specifically to tell him about herself. She explained that she started sleeping with her father when she was young, and that she wanted her “kids to experience the same closeness” and needed “a techer [sic] to help them with sex when they get older.” Brandi clarified that she had “lost [her] attraction to men” and was instead interested in “young boys about [her] sons [sic] age.” Arbogast responded that he was “probably a we [sic] bit older and … can be easy and exploring into everything you might desire. So if you want to try someone older, game on.” Brandi also stated that her family already had experience with a sexual teacher who moved away due to military commitments.

At this point in the conversation, Arbogast texted that he reread Brandi’s first e-mails and told her that he had not had sex with children and was interested in her.

E.g., id. at 3 (texts at 7:15:42 PM, 7:19:25 PM) (“just wanted to be with mom,” “[d]on’t known if [he] could help do kids,” and “never thought about that way”). Brandi replied that she was not looking for a partner for herself, but for her children. After texting that he had not tried young kids, Arbogast said had looked at young girls and would “like to try a young lady once.” Id. at 4 (text at 7:29:22 PM). Arbogast then texted that he did not think he could devote the time “necessary for this training” for the children and asked to meet with Brandi publicly for coffee to discuss it further. Id. (texts at 7:41:27 PM, 7:49:06 PM). Brandi reaffirmed that she was not looking for a partner herself and that she homeschooled the children, allowing her to keep their “secrets.” Id. at 5 (texts at 7:56:35 PM, 7:57:06 PM). Arbogast texted back: “And my secret as well if chosen.” Id. (text at 7:58:14 PM).

Brandi and Arbogast then exchanged photos. Arbogast texted that he wanted to give Brandi “TLC [(tender loving care)].” Id. at 5 (texts at 8:16:57 PM, 8:20:02 PM). Brandi answered that she “could get inv[ol]ved with [Arbogast] and [J]ake [(her son)] after a few good sessions of you two but [was] not into it” and asked Arbogast to “change [her] mind about us hooking up?” Id. (texts at 8:21:35 PM, 8:22:26 PM). In response, Arbogast stated, “OK you mean I need to groom the boy alone? What about your princess[?]” and “Never have done kids before.” Id. at 6 (texts at 8:23:47 PM, 8:24:12 PM). After exchanging another series of texts discussing how frequently Arbogast would meet with the children, he texted “we should meet and try it out.” Id. (text at 8:31:00 PM). Brandi outlined the rules, saying there could be no pain, no anal penetration, condoms were required, he would stop when asked, and he could not get the daughter pregnant. The rules also required Arbogast to come to her home and when he arrived “we all get naked.” Id. (text at 8:36:34 PM). Arbogast agreed, stating that he was sterile and looking for oral and regular sex. Minutes later, Arbogast repeated that he was interested in Brandi romantically, but she clarified that she would not be involved.

Brandi texted that they should meet soon so that she would be “less cautious its [sic] not a set up,” and she suggested that Arbogast come over to her apartment that night. Id. at 8 (texts at 9:00:05 PM, 9:06:18 PM). Brandi instructed Arbogast to bring condoms and lubricant, and said that she had to prepare the children. Arbogast again responded that he “[had] not done this before” but “[c]ould do almost anything without penetration.” Id. at 9 (text at 9:19:42 PM). When Brandi asked if Arbogast wanted the daughter or son or both, he responded he wanted the daughter dressed in “[j]ust under things” and would perform and receive oral sex. Id. at 9-10 (texts at 9:21:40 PM, 9:22:34 PM, 9:25:17 PM, 9:26:18 PM, 9:27:15 PM, 9:28:14 PM).

On arriving at the apartment, Arbogast was arrested. He did not have condoms or lubricant; he agreed to speak with the detectives, allowing them to search his phone and car. Arbogast was interrogated at the apartment site and took a polygraph examination. The polygraph indicated that Arbogast showed no deception when he answered he had no previous sexual contact with anyone under the age of 16. Arbogast’s phone showed no evidence of child pornography or that he sought sex with children in the past.

Arbogast was charged with two counts of attempted child rape in the first and second degree. In pretrial motions, Arbogast sought to admit the results of his polygraph on the question of whether he had ever tried to engage in sexual contact with children and to call the officer who administered the test as an expert witness, as relevant to entrapment. Alternatively, Arbogast argued the polygraph should be admitted to determine only whether an entrapment instruction was allowed. The motions were denied because the State was unwilling to stipulate to the admissibility of the polygraph. Arbogast also sought a jury instruction on entrapment. The court reserved that motion for resolution at trial.

In its own pretrial motions, the State sought to prohibit any mention of Arbogast’s lack of criminal history. The court agreed, finding it was premature until Arbogast presented evidence of government inducement or luring, another requirement of entrapment.

At trial, Arbogast testified that he never intended to have sex with children. Arbogast responded to the online ad because he wanted a casual sexual encounter with an adult woman. Arbogast had previously met with a woman before in response to such an ad. Despite Brandi’s put-offs, Arbogast testified that he thought he could persuade Brandi and so continued to play along, indicating interest in the children only to get on the mother’s good side. Despite acknowledging the conversation with Brandi concerned sex with her children, Arbogast maintained that he did not intend to act on his statements. A police officer who had spoken to Arbogast after his arrest testified that Arbogast said he intended “be with the children,” but admitted on cross-examination that it was unclear whether Arbogast meant to have sex with the children or just be present with them.

At the conclusion of its case, the State argued an entrapment instruction was not justified because Arbogast failed to show government inducement and a lack of predisposition by a preponderance of the evidence. The court agreed, concluding that there was some evidence to support luring but no more than normal. The court therefore denied the entrapment instruction and precluded evidence showing the absence of a criminal record to show lack of predisposition.

A jury convicted Arbogast of both counts of attempted child rape. He received a standard range sentence of 90 and 76.5 months respectively for the two charges, to be served concurrently.

The Washington Supreme Court majority applied the Washington entrapment statute, which provides:

(1) In any prosecution for a crime, it is a defense [that defendants must prove by a preponderance of the evidence] that:

(a) The criminal design originated in the mind of law enforcement officials, or any person acting under their direction, and

(b) The actor was lured or induced to commit a crime which the actor had not otherwise intended to commit.

(2) The defense of entrapment is not established by a showing only that law enforcement officials merely afforded the actor an opportunity to commit a crime.

And the majority concluded that there was enough evidence of entrapment that the jury should have been instructed to consider the defense and decide whether the elements were met:

Inducement evidence may be based on persuasion, fraudulent representations, threats, coercion, harassment, promises of reward, pleas based on need, and sympathy or friendship. Inducement asks whether police went beyond simply providing a defendant with the opportunity to commit the offense.

In this case, the trial court found Brandi’s statement that she could get involved with Arbogast after some sessions with her child constituted evidence of luring by offering a reward for engagement in the illegal behavior. However, the court was convinced that the police engaged in only a “normal amount of persuasion.” But, that is a jury question. United States v. Poehlman (9th Cir. 2000), is a similar “sexual mentor” case. There the defendant visited online discussion groups looking for a companion. The defendant responded to an ad from an undercover officer posing as a mother in search of someone to fill her family’s “unique needs.” The mother first suggested that the defendant develop a relationship with her children. She relayed her own sexual education with a teacher and sought the same experience for her children. The Ninth Circuit concluded that the defendant was induced to commit the crime of engaging in sex acts with a minor, noting that he was originally interested in a relationship with the mother, who explained over the course of their communication that sex with her children was required for her continued interest.

Poehlman recognized that parental consent is no defense to rape, but it “can have an effect on the ‘self-struggle [to] resist ordinary temptations.'” Consent, characterizing the activity as a part of parents’ responsibility to their children, and selecting a sexual teacher as an expression of confidence can allay a defendant’s fears that an act is harmful, distasteful, or inappropriate….

As in Poehlman, it was the undercover officer Brandi, rather than Arbogast, who first raised the idea that he be a sexual mentor to children. In their initial exchange of messages, Brandi brought up her own sexual history, explaining that she began sleeping with her father when she was young and her mother understood this sexual relationship. Brandi wanted the same “closeness” for her children, prompting her to find another sexual teacher for them. Discussing her past experience and offering that another man had already served as a teacher, Brandi arguably validated what she was offering to Arbogast—a taboo and illegal sexual relationship. She explained that she sought someone who understood her children’s sexual needs regardless of society’s acceptance, attempting to dispel fears Arbogast may have had that the activities would be inappropriate.

Additionally, like the defendant in Poehlman, Arbogast continually stated that he was looking for an adult relationship. Brandi opened their conversation by telling Arbogast that she was single and looking for someone open to new ideas. Arbogast responded by asking Brandi to tell him about herself. When presented with the idea of having sex with children, Arbogast said that he had never done so: “Never have done that. I just wanted to be with mom. Don’t know if I could help do kids.” He also stated that he could not devote enough time for sexual training and asked to meet with Brandi publicly to discuss it. In the midst of their text messages, Arbogast told Brandi specifically that he wanted to give her “TLC.” Though Brandi repeated that she was not interested in a sexual relationship for herself, she raised the possibility that she “could get involved with [Arbogast] and [J]ake [(her son)] after a few good sessions of you two.” Again, similar to Poehlman, Brandi made sex with her children a condition of her interest in Arbogast. According to Arbogast, he engaged in that discussion as “BS-ing” with Brandi and “going with the flow” in order to eventually have sex with her.

Inducement is not merely government presentation of an opportunity to commit a crime. There must be opportunity “plus” something else, such as excessive pressure placed on the defendant. Yet “even very subtle governmental pressure, if skillfully applied, can amount to inducement.” Here, as in Poehlman, a jury could conclude that the police induced Arbogast to commit the charged crime….

Here, the police created and executed the online sting operation, providing some evidence to satisfy the first requirement of an entrapment defense. Arbogast also presented evidence that Brandi induced him to commit a crime that he was not predisposed to commit, satisfying the luring element of the defense. This evidence satisfies the required quantum of proof to obtain an entrapment instruction.

Justice Mary Yu, joined by Chief Justice Steven Gonzalez, dissented:

The evidence shows only “a normal amount of persuasion” coupled with “[t]he mere use of a decoy or informer to present an individual with an opportunity to commit a crime,” which “does not in itself constitute entrapment.” …

Arbogast contends he was induced to commit the attempted rape of two children because “Brandi,” the fictional children’s purported mother, allegedly conditioned Arbogast’s sexual relationship with her on Arbogast’s sexual assault of her children. However, he did not produce any evidence to support this contention. To the contrary, when Arbogast texted Brandi to say, “I just wanted to be with mom,” Brandi promptly responded, “[T]hanks for not wasting our time. I am not looking for me. I am looking for someone to be with my kids. [G]ood luck with what it is you seek.” Brandi did not condition sex with her on the sexual assault of her children; she unequivocally told Arbogast that she would not have sex with him.

Nevertheless, Arbogast continued to text Brandi, telling her that although he had “not tried young kids” before, he “[w]ould like to try a young lady once.” After some further discussion about arranging for Arbogast to sexually assault the children, it was Arbogast, not Brandi, who again raised the possibility of an adult sexual relationship, asking, “You sure you don’t need some [TLC]?” It was only at this point that Brandi suggested she “could get involved with [Arbogast] and [J]ake [(her 13-year-old son)] after a few good sessions of you two,” but she repeated that she was “not into it,” and did not “want to take away from [the] kids[‘] exper[ie]nce.”

Thus, even when Brandi attempted a normal degree of persuasion by suggesting she might eventually have some involvement with Arbogast, she did not offer a sexual relationship with her on the condition that Arbogast first sexually assault her children. Instead, Brandi made it clear that all of Arbogast’s sexual relations with her family would involve at least one of her children. And when it appeared to Arbogast that he would “need to groom the boy alone,” Arbogast immediately asked, “What about your princess,” meaning Brandi’s 11-year-old daughter. Brandi assured Arbogast that her daughter “is very curious and is in the prime time to learn.”

Brandi and Arbogast discussed the “rules” that would apply to Arbogast’s sexual assault of the children, which Arbogast readily agreed to, and then Brandi sent Arbogast a photograph of her fictional family. Arbogast said, “I’m in if you want an old guy,” and Brandi again reiterated, “[I] have to be clear [I] am not involved … [I] don[‘]t want you to be disappointed and especially don[‘]t want my kids disappo[i]nted.” Arbogast agreed.

This is not a case in which the jury must make a credibility determination based on conflicting evidence. The recorded text message exchange unequivocally shows that Brandi never conditioned Arbogast’s sexual relationship with her on whether Arbogast would sexually assault her children. Even after Arbogast agreed to assault the children, Brandi did not give any assurance that she would become involved with Arbogast. At the most, Brandi did not say no to Arbogast when he repeatedly initiated the possibility of a future relationship. This is not evidence of inducement. Rather, the police used permissible deception and artifice to present Arbogast with an opportunity to commit the crime of attempted child rape, which he took….

This case is not like Poehlman. Here, Brandi mentioned only once that she had experience with a sexual mentor, and she did not offer any “special incentive[s]” or “important symbol[s] of acceptance and friendship” to Arbogast. Moreover, the text message exchange between Brandi and Arbogast lasted “less than five hours,” unlike the “protracted,” “intimate,” months-long exchange at issue in Poehlman. Arbogast, like Poehlman, may have sought an adult relationship with an undercover police officer, but unlike the officer in Poehlman, Brandi did not “encourage[ ]” Arbogast’s “fantasies” about this adult relationship. The actions of the police in relation to Arbogast were far from the “aggressive intervention” the police used in relation to Poehlman.

The police offered Arbogast the opportunity to participate in the crime of attempted child rape, and he took it. This is not inducement….

The post Washington S. Ct. Reverses Attempted Child Rape Conviction, Remands for Retrial with Entrapment Instruction appeared first on Reason.com.

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Natgas Soars As “Big Shot Of Cold Air” Expected By Weekend 

Natgas Soars As “Big Shot Of Cold Air” Expected By Weekend 

U.S. natural gas prices jumped Tuesday after weather forecasters pointed to colder weather expected to drive up heating demand through mid-April. 

Meteorologists at private weather forecaster BAMWX said a “big shot of cold air” is expected to arrive in the eastern half of the U.S. “later this week into this weekend, leading to well below normal temperatures.” 

Natgas futures for May delivery were up 7.5% to $6.14/MMBtu on the news. 

There are freeze risks for farmers who just planted across the Midwest between Friday and Sunday. BAMWX also believes “freeze risks remain at play from the northern Plains, Midwest to Ohio Valley over the next 10-20 days.” 

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

BAMWX expects “conditions start to warm up early next week.” However, they expect by the end of week two, “a period of colder air to have the potential to be more potent due to a snapback of the Pacific Jet and the colder MJO risks. Data has generally been trending colder over the past few runs with this signal.” 

Hopefully, this will be the last shot of cooler air as Midwest plantings begin. 

Tyler Durden
Tue, 04/05/2022 – 14:05

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The Best Offense Is A Good Defense Company

The Best Offense Is A Good Defense Company

By Alex of Macro Ops Substack

“Seek facts diligently, advice never.” ~ Philip Carret

In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK]  we look at mean reversion and record hedging driving the indices higher, we pair this bullishness with some concerning cyclical action and a downright bearish indicator, before then taking a look at global defense spend, a defense contractor, and big whales getting out of big tech, plus more… 

1. Sometimes breadth gets so bad it’s good. This is due to the power of mean reversion. One of the three driving factors of market technicals, the other two being trend, and momentum. This is the case for the Qs right now where the percent of members trading above their 50 and 200 day moving averages fell to the 20% level two weeks ago. The market bottomed soon after. Short-term this is bullish. Longer-term these weak breadth trends are bearish… 

2. Sentiment and positioning have also been a tailwind to the bulls as of late. Here’s a chart of the aggregate commercial hedger positioning amongst the major indices, showing near record longs (implying very short specs).

3.  Not all is rosy though and one thing you should be tracking is Cyclical vs. Defensives, which led the market weakness at the turn of the year. 

4. We are witnessing the great convergence between services and durable goods. Expect a continued pickup in consumer demand for services and experiences… 

5. And a slowdown in goods which should ease up pressure on supply chains as well as inflation.

6. US equities are a bit rich… @hussmanjp tweeted the following last week: 

So this is fun. The share of household financial assets invested in stocks ended 2021 at the highest extreme in history (and our most reliable measures are even worse). The last two times we got close, the S&P 500 lagged T-bills for the next 13-18 years.

This is the perfect long-term backdrop for precious metals though (link here)… 

7. Russia/Ukraine Commodity exports as a % of world total via KKR. 

8. Sadly, it’s probably a pretty good bet that we’re starting a new secular bull in defense spending (chart via KKR). 

9. Leonardo (LDO:MIL), an Italian-based defense contractor, will be a big beneficiary of this trend. LDO sells into markets across the EU, UK, and the United States. The stock is cheap, has broken out from a major triangle bottom, and has a few fundamental catalysts coming down the pipe to drive improved growth and margins. We’ll be putting out a report to Collective members on the company soon.

10. Net-block order flows don’t paint a pretty picture for FB. Note that this gave a solid lead on the selloff.

11. Same with AMZN… The whales are dumping their holdings of big tech, passing the shares to future bag holders. 

12. Here’s another Argentinian stock (last week I shared TGS). This one is TEO, a TelCo play. The chart below is a monthly. I know nothing about the fundamentals. They’re probably garbage. And, again, this is an Argentinian stock so full caveats apply. But… there are some great long-term technical setups in that market and they’re a large exporter of Ags, so *shrugs*…

Stay frosty and keep your head on a swivel.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 04/05/2022 – 13:46

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48 Hours After Orban’s Landslide Victory, EU Launches Punitive Rule Of Law Mechanism

48 Hours After Orban’s Landslide Victory, EU Launches Punitive Rule Of Law Mechanism

The EU Commission has announced Tuesday it will launch the so-called rule of law mechanism against Hungary, which links EU funds to whether or not democracy is being upheld. Newly re-elected Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban hailed the “great victory” in Sunday’s general election for he and his Fidesz party. Orban had said: “We have won a great victory – a victory so great you can perhaps see it from the moon and certainly from Brussels”.

Indeed they most certainly “see it” from Brussels, given that now a mere 48 hours after the landslide win which ensures Orban’s fourth consecutive term in office, their sour grapes are being made known swiftly in the following

The EU Commission will launch the so-called conditionality mechanism against Hungary which links EU funds to the respect of rule of law, commission president Ursula von der Leyen announced on Tuesday in the European Parliament. The commission has been under pressure to trigger the mechanism over concerns of fraud and corruption of EU funds and worries over democratic backsliding. The commission will now send a letter to the Hungarian authorities.

Via Reuters

“We’ve carefully assessed the result of these questions,” von der Leyen told European Parliament. “Our conclusion is we have to move on [to] the next step.”

The timing makes obvious that what she asserts as… “we’ve carefully assessed” – is really more about we reject the man the Hungarian people voted for in their democratic elections.

Also, commissioner for Budget and Administration, Johannes Hahn, announced that he will “take action with Hungary and set the mechanism in motion – because of suspicions of corruption and problems with public procurement.”

People did “go vote” and now elites in Brussels and Washington are raging at the outcome.

As Rod Dreher at The American Conservative points out:

It’s always the same with these people: it’s only “democracy” when people vote the way they want them to. People did “go vote” — and they returned Orban and his Fidesz party to power by margins that even Fidesz did not expect (trust me on this — I was there last night at Fidesz HQ, talking to people as the numbers came in).

Hungary will become the first country to endure proceedings under the relatively new ‘rule of law’ power, and could see millions in EU funds cut. 

In light of this, Politico notes that there will be a long haul process ahead: “Still, while von der Leyen is now prepared to move ahead after months of deliberation, significant bureaucracy and political debate must unfold before it’s known whether Hungary will ultimately lose out on critical EU funds.” 

“Once the Commission formally begins the process, a lengthy back-and-forth with Budapest is expected,” Politico continues. “Then it will be up to the Council of the EU, composed of representatives from each country, to ultimately determine whether to slash the money. Any funding reduction needs a ‘qualified majority’ to pass — meaning at least 55 percent of EU countries representing at least 65 percent of the bloc’s population.”

Tyler Durden
Tue, 04/05/2022 – 13:25

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Iran Says Nuclear Negotiations Effectively Over, Blames US for Impasse

Iran Says Nuclear Negotiations Effectively Over, Blames US for Impasse

Authored by Jason Ditz via AntiWar.com,

Officials with Iran’s Foreign Ministry are giving indications that the Vienna negotiations are not just “stalled” but effectively over. They say they are prepared to return to Vienna to sign the final deal, but not if it’s just for more negotiations.

Its not always clear how the Vienna talks are going since the US and Iran have been the only really negotiating parties for weeks, and they don’t meet face to face. Indirect talks through EU negotiators look similar no matter how active they are.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh, IRNA/AFP via Getty Images

All the reports of things being “close” seem to be accurate, with Iran interpreting things as finished, and just waiting for the US to settle any internal issues on accepting the final pact.

The big question remains the removal of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards from the US terror blacklist, something that is politically difficult for the US. Iran is also keen to get a US assurance that the next president won’t unilaterally withdraw from the deal, but that may not be achievable.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh accused the United States during a Monday press conference:

Khatibzadeh accused the United States of bringing the talks to a “suspension point.” He said, “What has become clear for us in the last two weeks is that [US President Joe] Biden and the White House have not made a decision.” He continued that the United States has made the nuclear talks a “hostage” in domestic partisan issues.

…He added, “The US is responsible for the suspension of the negotiations.” If talks are resumed, the United States must provide a “logical answer” to Iran’s demands, Khatibzadeh said.

State Dept officials offered an unusually upbeat assessment, saying they believe differences can still be overcome. This is a stark difference to their usual predictions that the deal will fall apart. It’s not clear if they picture more negotiations either, or if they, who also believe the deal is near, might resolve the last little bit on their own.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry also indicated openness to resume other talks in the region to resolve key issues outside of the nuclear deal, including getting back to bilateral talks with Saudi Arabia.

Efforts to keep regional issues separate from the nuclear one is probably a good idea, because some regional powers, like Israel and Saudi Arabia, are so generally hostile to Iran that they’re liable to use anything and everything as an excuse to pressure the US away from a nuclear pact.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 04/05/2022 – 13:05

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Biden Calls for ‘War Crimes Trial’ Against Putin


sfphotosfive379395

Russian President Vladimir Putin began his invasion of Ukraine on February 24, and the U.S. started collecting evidence of possible Russian war crimes in the first week of March. This past weekend, when Ukrainian soldiers recaptured the town of Bucha, just 36 miles from Kyiv, they found themselves in the midst of what Ukrainian authorities called a  “scene from a horror movie.”

Horrifying photos and videos were released of victims’ corpses lining the streets with their hands tied behind their back. More than 300 bodies were found shot dead in a mass grave. 

Officials in Moscow repeatedly denied that Russian troops slaughtered innocent Ukrainians. Some even suggested that the images and videos circulating around the world are hoaxes or actors pretending to be dead in a “coordinated media campaign.” 

Time-lapse satellite imagery and reporting from the New York Times indicate that bodies had been laying in the streets of Bucha for a few weeks, rebuking the Kremlin’s claim that the bodies were added to the streets after Russian soldiers “withdrew completely from Bucha around March 30.” Dark objects similar in size to human bodies appeared on the street between March 9 and March 11. Footage from April 1 shows that these presumed bodies remained untouched until Ukrainian soldiers recaptured the contested area.  

The Ukrainian city of Bucha was in the hands of [Russian] animals for several weeks. Local civilians were being executed arbitrarily, some with hands tied behind their backs, their bodies scattered in the streets of the city,” Ukraine’s defense ministry told reporters on Sunday. Also on CBS’s Face the Nation on Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Russian forces are committing genocide by “destroying and exterminating” the Ukrainian people. These atrocities committed by Russian soldiers have enraged the international community—with many countries now calling for tougher sanctions.

“I will do everything in my power to starve Putin’s war machine. We are stepping up our sanctions and military support, as well as bolstering our humanitarian support package to help those in need on the ground,” said England’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Sunday. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stressed that “Putin and his supporters will feel the consequences.” President Joe Biden said Monday that “what’s happening in Bucha is outrageous.” No leader has gone so far as Zelenskyy to define Russia’s actions as genocide.

In a more symbolic move, the U.S. and the U.K. have called to remove Russia from the U.N. Human Rights Council, with Biden calling for Putin to be put on trial for war crimes committed during the Bucha massacre.

The post Biden Calls for 'War Crimes Trial' Against Putin appeared first on Reason.com.

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Biden Calls for ‘War Crimes Trial’ Against Putin


sfphotosfive379395

Russian President Vladimir Putin began his invasion of Ukraine on February 24, and the U.S. started collecting evidence of possible Russian war crimes in the first week of March. This past weekend, when Ukrainian soldiers recaptured the town of Bucha, just 36 miles from Kyiv, they found themselves in the midst of what Ukrainian authorities called a  “scene from a horror movie.”

Horrifying photos and videos were released of victims’ corpses lining the streets with their hands tied behind their back. More than 300 bodies were found shot dead in a mass grave. 

Officials in Moscow repeatedly denied that Russian troops slaughtered innocent Ukrainians. Some even suggested that the images and videos circulating around the world are hoaxes or actors pretending to be dead in a “coordinated media campaign.” 

Time-lapse satellite imagery and reporting from the New York Times indicate that bodies had been laying in the streets of Bucha for a few weeks, rebuking the Kremlin’s claim that the bodies were added to the streets after Russian soldiers “withdrew completely from Bucha around March 30.” Dark objects similar in size to human bodies appeared on the street between March 9 and March 11. Footage from April 1 shows that these presumed bodies remained untouched until Ukrainian soldiers recaptured the contested area.  

The Ukrainian city of Bucha was in the hands of [Russian] animals for several weeks. Local civilians were being executed arbitrarily, some with hands tied behind their backs, their bodies scattered in the streets of the city,” Ukraine’s defense ministry told reporters on Sunday. Also on CBS’s Face the Nation on Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Russian forces are committing genocide by “destroying and exterminating” the Ukrainian people. These atrocities committed by Russian soldiers have enraged the international community—with many countries now calling for tougher sanctions.

“I will do everything in my power to starve Putin’s war machine. We are stepping up our sanctions and military support, as well as bolstering our humanitarian support package to help those in need on the ground,” said England’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Sunday. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stressed that “Putin and his supporters will feel the consequences.” President Joe Biden said Monday that “what’s happening in Bucha is outrageous.” No leader has gone so far as Zelenskyy to define Russia’s actions as genocide.

In a more symbolic move, the U.S. and the U.K. have called to remove Russia from the U.N. Human Rights Council, with Biden calling for Putin to be put on trial for war crimes committed during the Bucha massacre.

The post Biden Calls for 'War Crimes Trial' Against Putin appeared first on Reason.com.

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Liberals “Terrified”… Musk’s Big Stake In Twitter “Is Not At All Funny”

Liberals “Terrified”… Musk’s Big Stake In Twitter “Is Not At All Funny”

Elon Musk’s 9.2% stake in Twitter and his newly announced board seat has sent the left into an anti-free-speech tailspin.

Musk has been an outspoken proponent of free speech – which he says that failing to adhere to “fundamentally undermines democracy.”

On Monday, CNN host Brian Stelter said there’s a ‘fear’ over Musk’s move.

“There’s interest in billionaires, there’s celebration of the Musk. There’s also fear, I think, sometimes or wariness of- okay, so here’s the richest man on the planet who just bought a big chunk of one of our most important communications tools,” said Stelter. “”He’s also one of the biggest owners of satellites in the world. So he’s incredibly powerful, incredibly, I don’t know, am I allowed to use the word strange when talking about Elon Musk?”

Except, billionaires have been controlling information for decades and nobody had a problem.

 Coping is not going well for the anti-free-speech crowd.

And it’s no wonder why the left is rattled – according to Statista, their biggest problem with Twitter is ‘inaccurate or misleading information,’ while they’re least concerned about ‘Twitter banning users.’

More:

It appears the wokerati are more than happy to allow ‘free speech’ when it’s their speech but when ‘free speech’ is contemplated for all speech (even the evil ‘others’), tolerance goes out the window and tantrums dominate (until they get their way). Perhaps the real driver of this ‘fear’ of Elon goes back to his comments (paraphrased) that “wokeness… basically gives mean people a shield to be mean and cruel, armored in false virtue.”

Imagine the cognitive dissonance sweeping the nation as that reality soaks in (like there’s no need to wear a mask in a car when you’re alone).

Tyler Durden
Tue, 04/05/2022 – 12:46

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Watch: Biden Babbles And Lies About Being An 18-Wheeler Truck-Driver… Again

Watch: Biden Babbles And Lies About Being An 18-Wheeler Truck-Driver… Again

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

During a speech Monday regarding trucking supply chains, Joe Biden bizarrely claimed that he used to be a truck driver, had an 18 wheeler that he drove around, as well as a colleague called ‘Big Mama’.

In one of the most flagrant examples of Biden just making up stuff, he said “I used to drive a truck. It’s a long story – anyway… and I thought I was gonna get to drive one of these suckers today,” while motioning to one of the prop Mack trucks behind him.

Watch:

Biden also claimed “there was a guy who ran steel from Deemer Steel out to Ohio, and so I decided to ride out with him and see what it was like on the strike, and I was driving, going through Shiloh, Ohio.”

He continued, “Anyway, that’s another story too. Look, it’s getting harder and harder to recruit new drivers, particularly women and people of color, to an industry that this nation and our economy desperately needs at full strength.”

What the fuck is he talking about?

He’s been a politician practically all his life. He’s never been a truck driver.

Biden has made this claim before, but it turned out all he actually did was get in a truck for a publicity stunt in 1973.

After he finished claiming he was a truck driver, Biden asked his handlers “What do we do now?” before stumbling off and sniffing a little girl in the crowd:

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden
Tue, 04/05/2022 – 12:25

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It’s Official: Deutsche Is The First Bank To Forecast A US Recession In Late 2023

It’s Official: Deutsche Is The First Bank To Forecast A US Recession In Late 2023

Up until now, with the exception of various bearish splinter voices within Wall Street banks – such as those of Michael Hartnett or Albert Edwards who pitched recessionary scenarios explicitly different from the banks’ bullish “base cases”, not one bank dared to make the coming recession its official prediction narrative. That changed this morning when Deutsche Bank’s chief economists and heads of research, David Folkerts-Landau and Peter Hooper, became the first to make a recession in the US and a growth recession in the euro area within the next two years, their official forecast.

The “shocks” behind DB’s dramatic reassessment – the same ones we have been pounding the table on for the past 2 months:  the war in Ukraine and the build-up of momentum in elevated US and European inflation. Some more details from the DB duo:

  • The war, which has transitioned into a stalemate that is unlikely to be resolved any time soon, has disrupted activity on a number of fronts. These include upheavals in markets for energy, food grains, and key materials, that have in turn further disrupted global supply chains. That said, the economists assume that the critical flow of gas from Russia to Europe will not be cut off, keeping the crisis from substantially deepening costs to the European and global economies, but that remains a downside risk.
  • Inflation in the US and Europe is now pushing 8%, well in excess of what was expected as recently as December. More troubling, especially in the US, are signs that the underlying drivers of inflation have broadened, emanating from very tight labor market conditions and spreading from goods to services. Inflation psychology has shifted significantly, and while longer-term inflation expectations have not yet become unanchored, they are increasingly at risk of doing so.

Meanwhile, as confirmed by today’s uberhawkish comments from Lael Brainard, the Fed has found itself greatly behind the curve, and has given clear signals that it is shifting to a more aggressive tightening mode, so DB now expects the Fed funds rate to peak above 3-1/2% next summer, with balance sheet rundown adding at least another 75bp-equivalent in rate hikes. With EA inflation likely to be sustained at 2% or more, the German bank also sees the ECB raising rates 250 bps between this September and next December.

Here, DB echoes what we have repeatedly said in the past 6 months, and warns that the Fed’s tightening is expected to yield negative growth in the US for two quarters during the fall-winter of 2023-24 and to reduce EA growth to modestly above zero that winter.  In other words, the Fed hopes to start a “soft landing” recession…

… but since it will fail miserably, all it is doing is bringing forward the next massive monetary stimulus (read QE and ETF purchases).

And sure enough, DB agrees with that too, with the bank writing that “growth is seen recovering thereafter as inflation recedes and the Fed reverses some of its rate hikes”, translation rate cuts begin as soon as 2023.

In more specific terms, DB writes that the war in Ukraine and the more aggressive monetary policy tightening “have caused us to mark down our forecast for global growth—by more than 1pp this year and 3/4pp next year”…

… With the EA and especially Germany hit hardest this year by the war and surges in energy and other prices that have depressed household and corporate real incomes. China’s growth has been marked down significantly as well, this year and next, primarily because of the disruptive effects of official measures including lockdowns to deal with the spread of the highly infectious Omicron BA.2 variant of Covid-19.

The US economy is expected to take an especially hard hit from the extra Fed tightening by late next year and early 2024, and as a result Deutsche sees two negative quarters of growth and a more than 1.5% pt rise in the US unemployment rate, developments that clearly qualify as a recession. 

This US slowdown – and recession – spills over to some extent to much of the rest of the world, with EA growth dipping briefly to about zero in early 2024, a number which will only be pulled lower in coming weeks as the European recession gets “worse”.

The good news is that by late 2024, US growth picks up after the Fed eases rates and/or resumes QE.

There is more in the full 62-page report available to pro subs in the usual place.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 04/05/2022 – 12:16

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