CDC: The Movie


cdc_16x9

In a world gripped by a global pandemic, the brilliant scientists at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) are the only hope left for humanity—or so you’d think, if you’ve seen Outbreak and Contagion.

But what if everything you thought you knew about the pandemic…movies…was wrong?

What if the real CDC has always done things such as telling a nurse with ebola she can board a commercial flight from Cleveland to Dallas, or botching the rollout of the Zika virus test?

From the producers who brought you contradictory mask guidance and told you to cook your prosciutto comes the true story of an agency that was—once again—completely unprepared for the one thing it was meant to do: fight disease.

Featuring guidelines that suggested you wipe down your groceries for more than a year after scientists knew the coronavirus was mostly airborne, a disastrous monopoly for wildly inaccurate COVID tests, red tape delays and math-illiterate pauses on vaccine administration, data sourced from an inaccurate New York Times infographic, data that’s not statistically significant, an $8 billion budget that expands an infectious disease agency’s purview to everything from sports injuries to gun violence, the crushing of all dissent, and an endless supply of contradictory narratives.

Coming this spring—over two years into the pandemic—don’t miss CDC: The Movie. This time, it’s more of the same.

Produced and written by Justin Monticello, Austin Bragg, and Meredith Bragg; performed by Austin Bragg and Justin Monticello; shot by Tim Harbour and Meredith Bragg; edited by Austin Bragg and Meredith Bragg.

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District Of Columbia Lacks Standing To Sue Oath Keepers And Proud Boys For Jan. 6, Defense Attorney Says

District Of Columbia Lacks Standing To Sue Oath Keepers And Proud Boys For Jan. 6, Defense Attorney Says

Authored by Joseph Hanneman via The Epoch Times,

The District of Columbia’s civil lawsuit against the Oath Keepers, Proud Boys, and 37 individual defendants fails for lack of standing, a defense attorney said Monday.

“We don’t think that they have jurisdiction to sue,” attorney Jonathon Moseley, who represents Oath Keepers leader Kelly Meggs, told The Epoch Times.

“They don’t have standing to sue on behalf of the individual police officers. They don’t have jurisdiction to sue for what happened on federal land.”

On April 1, District of Columbia Attorney General Karl Racine announced an expansion (pdf) of the district’s December 2021 lawsuit to include Oath Keepers founder Elmer Stewart Rhodes III, four individual Oath Keepers, and one member of the Proud Boys.

The suit seeks to lay the blame for Jan. 6 violence at the U.S. Capitol on an alleged conspiracy between the Oath Keepers and the Proud Boys and aims to hold the defendants financially responsible for the unrest.

In March, Moseley and attorney Juli Z. Haller filed a motion (pdf) before U.S. District Judge Amit P. Mehta to dismiss the lawsuit for lack of foundation. Haller represents defendant Connie Meggs, wife of Kelly Meggs.

The District of Columbia’s legal filings “implausibly seek to make all defendants in this case responsible for the intervening, independent, criminal acts of others who allegedly committed treacherous acts whether intentionally or negligently,” the motion reads, “whereas plaintiff fails to plead that these individual defendants caused any of these acts or committed any injuries.”

Members of the Oath Keepers are seen during a protest against the certification of the 2020 U.S. presidential election results by the U.S. Congress, at the U.S. Capitol in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021. (Jim Bourg/Reuters)

The 119-page amended suit borrows heavily from dozens of criminal complaints filed in U.S. District Court against members of the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys.

“We filed this lawsuit to hold groups and individuals that conspired to attack the Capitol, assault our law enforcement officers, and terrorize our community accountable for their brutal and dangerous actions on January 6,” Racine said in a statement.

“Over the last few months, we have learned more about the horrors of January 6—including more about how the leaders of the two groups behind the attack urged members to use violence to overturn the outcome of a lawful presidential election,” Racine said.

“We are seeking justice for the District, our democracy, and the brave law enforcement officers who risked their lives that day.”

Some two dozen members of the Oath Keepers—an association of current and former military, law enforcement, and first responders—have been criminally charged for an alleged plot to attack the Capitol. Oath Keepers founder Rhodes was indicted in January on charges of seditious conspiracy and numerous other counts.

‘Coordinated Attack of Domestic Terrorism’

The DC lawsuit describes the Oath Keepers as “a militia movement group united by baseless conspiracy theories arising from the idea that the federal government has been co-opted by a nefarious group that is trying to strip United States citizens of their rights.”

The suit’s other target is the Proud Boys, a group formerly headed by Enrique Tarrio of Miami, who is also under federal indictment.

Based in part on a series of encrypted online chats and other communications that were collected by the FBI, the lawsuit alleges the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers worked together to plan “a coordinated attack of domestic terrorism.”

“Defendants and others rioted, broke through police barricades, and physically forced their way into the Capitol,” the suit reads.

“In doing so, they threatened, assaulted, and injured those who tried to stop them, including officers of the District’s Metropolitan Police Department (‘MPD’), and incited terror among those inside and around the building, including members of Congress who were discharging the official duties of their offices.”

In addition to conspiracy, the lawsuit alleges the defendants are guilty of assault, battery, and intentional infliction of emotional distress.

Moseley said a major issue with the lawsuit is that the Jan. 6 events and unrest occurred on federal land, not on District of Columbia property.

The federal government owns and operates the Capitol, the National Mall, and the Ellipse where then-President Donald J. Trump spoke on Jan. 6, 2021.

“I don’t know what they’re talking about. I mean, they could say on federal property, maybe,” Moseley said.

“There wasn’t anything like that on the property of the District of Columbia. I mean, where was there anything on District of Columbia property?”

Claims of assault made in the lawsuit lack specific evidence and attempt to assign guilt to an entire group based on association, according to the motion to dismiss the case.

“The complaint does not come close to properly alleging that Connie, much less Kelly Meggs, intentionally aided and abetted assault and battery on the MPD’s employees. It does not even allege who injured them, much less any ‘affirmative act’ the Meggs allegedly took ‘in furtherance’ of the assault or battery,” the motion said.

One of the other “broad legal issues” with the suit, Moseley said, is it conflicts with the ongoing criminal cases, and potentially involves calling witnesses who risk incriminating themselves in civil court.

“I think it would be a pretty strong argument to say these lawsuits have to be put on hold while the criminal cases go forward,” Moseley said.

The DC Office of Attorney General is receiving pro-bono legal help from the States United Democracy Center; the Anti-Defamation League; Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison LLP; and Dechert LLP, according to a statement from Racine.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 04/05/2022 – 09:50

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/IWuNPbl Tyler Durden

New York Jet Fuel Soars To Record High As Inventories Plunge

New York Jet Fuel Soars To Record High As Inventories Plunge

Wholesale jet fuel prices in New York have risen more than 162% since mid-March, as buyers at some of the world’s busiest airports, located on the US East Coast, anticipate dwindling supplies as Western sanctions shun Russian energy exports.  

On Monday, jet fuel prices jumped 93 cents to $7.61 a gallon, a new record high, according to Bloomberg data going back to 1988.

According to Reuters, there are two major issues. The first is East Coast depends on fuel shipments via the Texas-to-New Jersey Colonial Pipeline for refined products and imports from Europe. But there’s been a snag as distillate shortages in Europe and shunning of Russian energy exports have helped accelerate the decline in distillate stockpiles in PADD 1. 

Distillate stockpiles at PADD 1 are at 2015 levels. 

For this time of year, ahead of the summer flying season, distillate levels are at some of their lowest levels in two decades (besides 2003 & 2015). 

“It is ridiculous what’s going on in PADD I with jet, and it’s not sustainable,” Patrick DeHaan, lead petroleum analyst at GasBuddy, told Reuters. 

DeHaan tweeted a video of airline ticket prices soaring, likely because airlines are price sensitive to jet fuel and may already pass higher costs to consumers.  

S&P Global Commodity Insights said industry insiders “do not attribute this exponential leap in jet fuel’s value to a single, consequential event confined within the parameters of the Atlantic Coast jet fuel market. Rather, it is regarded as only the most recent development in a sequence of events beginning with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. “

The best and easiest cure for soaring jet fuel prices is demand destruction, which will be costly for airlines that will see a collapse in ticket sales.  

Tyler Durden
Tue, 04/05/2022 – 09:38

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/FpPbCAz Tyler Durden

CDC: The Movie


cdc_16x9

In a world gripped by a global pandemic, the brilliant scientists at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) are the only hope left for humanity—or so you’d think, if you’ve seen Outbreak and Contagion.

But what if everything you thought you knew about the pandemic…movies…was wrong?

What if the real CDC has always done things such as telling a nurse with ebola she can board a commercial flight from Cleveland to Dallas, or botching the rollout of the Zika virus test?

From the producers who brought you contradictory mask guidance and told you to cook your prosciutto comes the true story of an agency that was—once again—completely unprepared for the one thing it was meant to do: fight disease.

Featuring guidelines that suggested you wipe down your groceries for more than a year after scientists knew the coronavirus was mostly airborne, a disastrous monopoly for wildly inaccurate COVID tests, red tape delays and math-illiterate pauses on vaccine administration, data sourced from an inaccurate New York Times infographic, data that’s not statistically significant, an $8 billion budget that expands an infectious disease agency’s purview to everything from sports injuries to gun violence, the crushing of all dissent, and an endless supply of contradictory narratives.

Coming this spring—over two years into the pandemic—don’t miss CDC: The Movie. This time, it’s more of the same.

Produced and written by Justin Monticello, Austin Bragg, and Meredith Bragg; performed by Austin Bragg and Justin Monticello; shot by Tim Harbour and Meredith Bragg; edited by Austin Bragg and Meredith Bragg.

The post CDC: The Movie appeared first on Reason.com.

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California Can’t Mandate Diversity on Corporate Boards


dreamstime_l_108103112

Law “violates the Equal Protection Clause of the California Constitution on its face,” says judge. A measure meant to bring more diversity to the boards of companies headquartered in California is unconstitutional, says the Los Angeles County Superior Court.

The diversity requirement—signed into law in September 2020—said that publicly held companies with headquarters in California must have at least one director from an “underrepresented community,” meaning someone who “self-identifies as Black, African American, Hispanic, Latino, Asian, Pacific Islander, Native American, Native Hawaiian, or Alaska Native, or who self-identifies as gay, lesbian, bisexual, or transgender.” Depending on board size, the number of board members from these communities would have to increase by the end of 2022.

The law (AB 979) followed on the heels of a 2018 California mandate (SB 826) that corporate boards feature at least one woman. Companies in violation of either law were eligible for six-figure fines.

The conservative group Judicial Watch challenged AB 979 on behalf of three California taxpayers, saying it violated California’s constitution. “Gender quotas and now new quotas for numerous other groups for corporate boards are slaps in the face to the core American value of equal protection under the law,” said Judicial Watch President Tom Fitton in an October 2020 statement.

Now, L.A. Superior Court Judge Terry Green has sided with Judicial Watch in the case (Crest v. Padilla), granting the group summary judgement.

The law “violates the Equal Protection Clause of the California Constitution on its face,” wrote Green in his order. “The statute treats similarly situated individuals—qualified potential corporate board members—differently based on their membership (or lack thereof) in certain listed racial, sexual orientation, and gender identity groups. It requires that a certain specific number of board seats be reserved for members of the groups on the list—and necessarily excludes members of other groups from those seats.”

The state “has not identified a compelling interest to justify this classification,” noted Green. “The broader public benefits produced by well-run businesses do not fit that bill. On the other hand, while remediation of discrimination can be a compelling interest, the state must define a specific arena in which the discrimination has occurred, such as a school district or a specific industry within a particular local jurisdiction.”

“A member of the public … might wonder at this result,” he added. “If the Legislature has identified a social problem, how can the court stand in the way of the obvious and direct approach to solving it?”

His answer: Courts are charged with “maintaining the continuity of rules even against the will of the majority.” And “fundamental values, whether personal or social, must be guarded. Equal treatment and opportunity, of and for all individuals regardless of how they look or identify, is one of this state’s basic commitments. … Only in very particular cases should discrimination be remedied by more discrimination. And that should only happen after obvious alternative measures have been tried.”

A Judicial Watch lawsuit challenging California’s board gender quota is still in progress, as are two federal lawsuits challenging AB 979 and SB 826. The federal cases—both pending in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of California—allege that California’s board diversity statutes violate the Equal Protection Clause of the U.S. Constitution.

Corporate board diversity quotas have been controversial for a number of reasons. Diversity in boardrooms might be a good goal—whether for cultural or economic reasons—but from a libertarian perspective, it’s not one the government should be allowed to force on private companies. There are also feminist objections to quotas, with some worrying that they reinforce stereotypes about women (or members of “underrepresented communities”) by implying they’re not good enough to be board members without government-enforced quotas.

Besides, there’s little to support the idea that quotas have a “trickle down” effect on leadership positions within companies or workplace diversity and policies more broadly. And research is mixed on whether they improve corporate performance.


FREE MINDS

Can a public school football coach pray on the field? “Lower courts have mostly forbidden public school teachers from openly praying in the workplace, even if students are not involved. Yet the Supreme Court has not directly addressed such a case—until now,” notes Charles Russo in the Ohio Capital Journal. Oral arguments in the case—Kennedy v. Bremerton School District—are scheduled for April 25.

“At issue is whether a school board violated the rights of Joseph Kennedy, a football coach it suspended, and whose contract it did not renew, because he ignored its directive to stop kneeling in silent prayer on the field after games,” explains Russo:

Kennedy claims that the board violated his First Amendment rights to freedom of speech and freedom of religion, along with his rights under the Civil Rights Act, which prohibits employment discrimination.

The Supreme Court faces two key questions: whether prayers public school employees say in front of students are protected by their First Amendments rights; and, if they are, whether educational officials must still prohibit them in order to avoid promoting particular religions and violating the Establishment Clause.

From my perspective as a specialist in education law, the case is noteworthy because the court should resolve sticky questions surrounding whether public school employees can pray when supervising students, or if doing so crosses the line and becomes impermissible government speech.

Kennedy v. Bremerton also reflects the inherent tension between the First Amendment’s two clauses on religious freedom: The Free Exercise clause protects individuals’ right to practice their faiths as they wish, while the Establishment Clause forbids the government from “establishing” a religion.

You can find more on the case here.


FREE MARKETS

Coloradans can’t get high off Mike Tyson’s ear-shaped edibles. Former boxing champion Mike Tyson has been capitalizing off his notorious 1997 ear-biting incident, in which he chomped down on opponent Evander Holyfield’s ear, by selling THC-infused edibles shaped like ears with a bite chomped out of them. His company, Tyson 2.0, “confirmed that the infused gummy ears are real, and are currently sold in California,” according to Westword. And Tyson 2.0 plans to expand these “Mike Bites” to more states this year. But that won’t include Colorado:

A 2016 state law prohibits marijuana edibles from being shaped like humans, animals, fruit or other objects that could attract children, and according to the Colorado Marijuana Enforcement Division, Holyfield’s chomped ear is just too damn attractive. The vegan, ear-shaped edibles are “directly applicable” to the law banning human body part shapes, according to MED communications director Shannon Gray.


QUICK HITS

• Tesla CEO Elon Musk now owns 9.2 percent of Twitter. “It’s not clear at present what type of involvement Musk will have in Twitter’s decision making processes, or whether he will be asked to join the company’s board,” notes Reason‘s Liz Wolfe.

• Republicans and Democrats in the Senate have reached a deal on a COVID-19 spending package that includes at least $5 billion for therapies and $750 million for research on coronavirus variants.

• A property rights win in Wisconsin:

• Matthew Yglesias tackles “the bizarre myth that Ancient Greeks couldn’t see blue” and what that has to do with modern language policing.

• Did Ketanji Brown Jackson flout the law when she reduced a drug dealer’s sentence?

The Atlantic explores the “covert network of activists” making preparations for the overturning of Roe v. Wade—a cadre of “vaginal preppers” aiming to help women learn old-school techniques for self-managed abortion. “Just knowing the people who came before you had other ways of managing these things, not necessarily through a doctor or condoned by a government—there’s something really powerful in that,” a woman identified as “Ellie” tells The Atlantic.

• Man arrested over daughter’s diaper rash wins at Supreme Court:

• Three states—Arizona, Louisiana, and Missouri—are suing to stop the Biden administration from ending an order that lets the U.S. turn away many refugees without processing their asylum requests.

• Why does U.S. border patrol need the ability to delete messages?

• “Chinese authorities extended a lockdown in Shanghai to cover all of the financial centre’s 26 million people on Tuesday after city-wide testing saw new COVID-19 cases surge to more than 13,000 amid growing public anger over quarantine rules,” reports Reuters.

• A new book looks at a centurylong battle for the soul of American conservatism. “Trump was no alien invader of American conservatism,” writes author Matthew Continetti. “In his marriage of the policy views of Coolidge with the rabble-rousing of McCarthy, Donald Trump was the return of a repressed memory.”

• France’s ban on short flights starts this month.

The post California Can't Mandate Diversity on Corporate Boards appeared first on Reason.com.

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California Can’t Mandate Diversity on Corporate Boards


dreamstime_l_108103112

Law “violates the Equal Protection Clause of the California Constitution on its face,” says judge. A measure meant to bring more diversity to the boards of companies headquartered in California is unconstitutional, says the Los Angeles County Superior Court.

The diversity requirement—signed into law in September 2020—said that publicly held companies with headquarters in California must have at least one director from an “underrepresented community,” meaning someone who “self-identifies as Black, African American, Hispanic, Latino, Asian, Pacific Islander, Native American, Native Hawaiian, or Alaska Native, or who self-identifies as gay, lesbian, bisexual, or transgender.” Depending on board size, the number of board members from these communities would have to increase by the end of 2022.

The law (AB 979) followed on the heels of a 2018 California mandate (SB 826) that corporate boards feature at least one woman. Companies in violation of either law were eligible for six-figure fines.

The conservative group Judicial Watch challenged AB 979 on behalf of three California taxpayers, saying it violated California’s constitution. “Gender quotas and now new quotas for numerous other groups for corporate boards are slaps in the face to the core American value of equal protection under the law,” said Judicial Watch President Tom Fitton in an October 2020 statement.

Now, L.A. Superior Court Judge Terry Green has sided with Judicial Watch in the case (Crest v. Padilla), granting the group summary judgement.

The law “violates the Equal Protection Clause of the California Constitution on its face,” wrote Green in his order. “The statute treats similarly situated individuals—qualified potential corporate board members—differently based on their membership (or lack thereof) in certain listed racial, sexual orientation, and gender identity groups. It requires that a certain specific number of board seats be reserved for members of the groups on the list—and necessarily excludes members of other groups from those seats.”

The state “has not identified a compelling interest to justify this classification,” noted Green. “The broader public benefits produced by well-run businesses do not fit that bill. On the other hand, while remediation of discrimination can be a compelling interest, the state must define a specific arena in which the discrimination has occurred, such as a school district or a specific industry within a particular local jurisdiction.”

“A member of the public … might wonder at this result,” he added. “If the Legislature has identified a social problem, how can the court stand in the way of the obvious and direct approach to solving it?”

His answer: Courts are charged with “maintaining the continuity of rules even against the will of the majority.” And “fundamental values, whether personal or social, must be guarded. Equal treatment and opportunity, of and for all individuals regardless of how they look or identify, is one of this state’s basic commitments. … Only in very particular cases should discrimination be remedied by more discrimination. And that should only happen after obvious alternative measures have been tried.”

A Judicial Watch lawsuit challenging California’s board gender quota is still in progress, as are two federal lawsuits challenging AB 979 and SB 826. The federal cases—both pending in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of California—allege that California’s board diversity statutes violate the Equal Protection Clause of the U.S. Constitution.

Corporate board diversity quotas have been controversial for a number of reasons. Diversity in boardrooms might be a good goal—whether for cultural or economic reasons—but from a libertarian perspective, it’s not one the government should be allowed to force on private companies. There are also feminist objections to quotas, with some worrying that they reinforce stereotypes about women (or members of “underrepresented communities”) by implying they’re not good enough to be board members without government-enforced quotas.

Besides, there’s little to support the idea that quotas have a “trickle down” effect on leadership positions within companies or workplace diversity and policies more broadly. And research is mixed on whether they improve corporate performance.


FREE MINDS

Can a public school football coach pray on the field? “Lower courts have mostly forbidden public school teachers from openly praying in the workplace, even if students are not involved. Yet the Supreme Court has not directly addressed such a case—until now,” notes Charles Russo in the Ohio Capital Journal. Oral arguments in the case—Kennedy v. Bremerton School District—are scheduled for April 25.

“At issue is whether a school board violated the rights of Joseph Kennedy, a football coach it suspended, and whose contract it did not renew, because he ignored its directive to stop kneeling in silent prayer on the field after games,” explains Russo:

Kennedy claims that the board violated his First Amendment rights to freedom of speech and freedom of religion, along with his rights under the Civil Rights Act, which prohibits employment discrimination.

The Supreme Court faces two key questions: whether prayers public school employees say in front of students are protected by their First Amendments rights; and, if they are, whether educational officials must still prohibit them in order to avoid promoting particular religions and violating the Establishment Clause.

From my perspective as a specialist in education law, the case is noteworthy because the court should resolve sticky questions surrounding whether public school employees can pray when supervising students, or if doing so crosses the line and becomes impermissible government speech.

Kennedy v. Bremerton also reflects the inherent tension between the First Amendment’s two clauses on religious freedom: The Free Exercise clause protects individuals’ right to practice their faiths as they wish, while the Establishment Clause forbids the government from “establishing” a religion.

You can find more on the case here.


FREE MARKETS

Coloradans can’t get high off Mike Tyson’s ear-shaped edibles. Former boxing champion Mike Tyson has been capitalizing off his notorious 1997 ear-biting incident, in which he chomped down on opponent Evander Holyfield’s ear, by selling THC-infused edibles shaped like ears with a bite chomped out of them. His company, Tyson 2.0, “confirmed that the infused gummy ears are real, and are currently sold in California,” according to Westword. And Tyson 2.0 plans to expand these “Mike Bites” to more states this year. But that won’t include Colorado:

A 2016 state law prohibits marijuana edibles from being shaped like humans, animals, fruit or other objects that could attract children, and according to the Colorado Marijuana Enforcement Division, Holyfield’s chomped ear is just too damn attractive. The vegan, ear-shaped edibles are “directly applicable” to the law banning human body part shapes, according to MED communications director Shannon Gray.


QUICK HITS

• Tesla CEO Elon Musk now owns 9.2 percent of Twitter. “It’s not clear at present what type of involvement Musk will have in Twitter’s decision making processes, or whether he will be asked to join the company’s board,” notes Reason‘s Liz Wolfe.

• Republicans and Democrats in the Senate have reached a deal on a COVID-19 spending package that includes at least $5 billion for therapies and $750 million for research on coronavirus variants.

• A property rights win in Wisconsin:

• Matthew Yglesias tackles “the bizarre myth that Ancient Greeks couldn’t see blue” and what that has to do with modern language policing.

• Did Ketanji Brown Jackson flout the law when she reduced a drug dealer’s sentence?

The Atlantic explores the “covert network of activists” making preparations for the overturning of Roe v. Wade—a cadre of “vaginal preppers” aiming to help women learn old-school techniques for self-managed abortion. “Just knowing the people who came before you had other ways of managing these things, not necessarily through a doctor or condoned by a government—there’s something really powerful in that,” a woman identified as “Ellie” tells The Atlantic.

• Man arrested over daughter’s diaper rash wins at Supreme Court:

• Three states—Arizona, Louisiana, and Missouri—are suing to stop the Biden administration from ending an order that lets the U.S. turn away many refugees without processing their asylum requests.

• Why does U.S. border patrol need the ability to delete messages?

• “Chinese authorities extended a lockdown in Shanghai to cover all of the financial centre’s 26 million people on Tuesday after city-wide testing saw new COVID-19 cases surge to more than 13,000 amid growing public anger over quarantine rules,” reports Reuters.

• A new book looks at a centurylong battle for the soul of American conservatism. “Trump was no alien invader of American conservatism,” writes author Matthew Continetti. “In his marriage of the policy views of Coolidge with the rabble-rousing of McCarthy, Donald Trump was the return of a repressed memory.”

• France’s ban on short flights starts this month.

The post California Can't Mandate Diversity on Corporate Boards appeared first on Reason.com.

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Bullish Or Bearish: Where Are We Now?

Bullish Or Bearish: Where Are We Now?

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Bullish or bearish? What is the case for the market now?

As we noted previously, having a proper market perspective is essential in avoiding investing mistakes over time. However, another trap we potentially fall into is “confirmation bias,”

“Experts in the field of behavioral finance find that confirmation bias applies to investors in notable ways. Because investors seek out information that confirms their existing opinions and ignore facts or data that refutes them, they may skew the value of their decisions based on their own cognitive biases. This psychological phenomenon occurs when investors filter out potentially useful facts and opinions that don’t coincide with their preconceived notions.” – Investopedia

With the Russia/Ukraine conflict raging, energy prices soaring, inflation spiking, the Fed hiking rates, and pressure on asset prices, it is reasonable to have a more “bearish” view. The problem is getting trapped into that view to the point we miss the eventual turn to a more “bullish” outlook.

One of the biggest challenges investors always face is allocating capital to markets once a correction occurs. The concern is purely emotional as investors worry the market may continue to decline. While specific reasons suggest a deeper correction is possible, other factors support a more positive outcome.

The emotional biases of being either bullish or bearish, primarily driven by the media, keep you from truly focusing on long-term outcomes. Instead, you either worry about the next downturn or are concerned you are missing the rally. Therefore, you wind up making short-term decisions that negate long-term views.

Understanding this is the case, let’s look at the markets from a bullish and bearish perspective. We can balance our views on potential outcomes and investment allocations.

The Bullish Case

Sentiment

Even after a 10% rally from the March lows, BofA’s sentiment indicator is still pushing more extreme bearish conditions. Which, ironically, is bullish as it tends to be a contrarian indicator.

However, when it comes to that sentiment, it tends to change quickly. Such was summed up well by my colleague Channing Smith, CFA of Jackson Hole Capital Partners. To wit:

“For years when we have had these bouts of volatility or scares, however, we inevitably see these frantic bullish reversals with a new bullish narrative quickly rising from the ashes. The negatives somehow get spun into positives each time the markets rally.

  • Yield Curve Inversion – This is bullish. Stocks are up an average of 11.5% one year after an inversion

  • Inflation is now good for stocks because equities are the best hedge against inflation

  • Higher interest rates are good for stocks because asset flows into equities will increase

  • The Fed balance sheet is now over $9 trillion and despite talking about a reduction, they haven’t done so yet.

  • The war in Ukraine resulted in international flows coming into US markets which is a positive

  • The economic slowdown isn’t evident as both consumer and corporate balance sheets are flush with cash.

  • Selling of equities is not an option given no alternative to low yields.

Channing is correct. The bullish narrative is back and could support higher asset prices as that overall negative sentiment gets reversed.

Markets Are Back Above Resistance

That negative sentiment and positioning provided the “fuel” for a robust counter-trend rally. That market rally pushed prices above respective 50- and 200-dma’s, again frustrating the bearsIf the market can work off the overbought condition without violating support, the bulls will regain control of the narrative. At least for now.

As noted in “Inverted Yield Curve History:”

“As we head into the end of the month, a further push to the upside is not out of the question as mutual funds, pensions, and investment firms rebalance portfolios for the end of the quarter. The recent surge in interest rates has decreased the bond side of allocation funds. Also, the decline in the markets since the beginning of the year has fund managers at reduced equity levels, overweight cash, and negatively biased.”

Historical Performance

“This time is always different” in terms of the economy, inflation, politics, and many other variables that potentially affect market outcomes. However, as shown in the chart below via Plante Moran, stock performance tends to be positive during periods of Fed rate hikes.

Furthermore, given the weakness since the start of the year, as noted by Goldman Sachs, returns following weak starts are biased to the upside.

Other issues that feed into the bullish case are:

  • High investor cash levels

  • Corporate stock buybacks are pushing a record

  • Global equity fund flows remain strong.

  • Earnings expectations remain very positive.

While there is no guarantee that stocks will continue to rise, the bulls currently carry solid arguments for being long equities.

However, the bears have an equally compelling case for remaining cautious.

The Bearish Case

Liquidity Reversal

The massive surge of liquidity poured into the economy from $5 trillion in government spending has now ended. That enormous surge in M2 (money supply) created the inflationary surge we are seeing now and supported rampant market speculation.

The problem is that liquidity, which pulled forward roughly 3-years of consumption, is reversing. As such, consumption will slow as savings are depleted, slowing economic growth and deflationary pressures.

Earnings Recession

As economic growth and inflationary pressures slow, earnings will fall. Given that valuations are still elevated by historical measures, stock prices will have to adjust for slowing expectations. Already, forward estimates are on the decline as current economic data weakens. Given the high level of inflation that companies are finding more challenging to pass on, bottom-line earnings will erode.

The Fed Is Tightening Monetary Policy

One of the bullish points was that markets tend to do well in the early stages of the rate hiking cycle. That is true, but there is a caveat. Each time the Fed started rate hikes previously, economic growth was strong, and inflation was nascent. This time, inflation is rampant and economic growth is weak. While historically, Fed rate hikes coincided with rising markets, such as the case until those rate hikes “broke” something economically. As noted recently, there is no historical precedent to the contrary.

Other issues that feed into the bearish case are:

  • Inflation is surging

  • There are many “trapped longs” in the market.

  • Geopolitical risk remains high.

  • High probability of a Fed “policy mistake.

  • Interest rates are rising, which will slow economic growth.

  • Market liquidity remains low

  • The Fed has ended Q.E., and they will reduce their balance sheet.

  • Consumer confidence (specifically the spread between current and future expectations).

While there is no guarantee that stocks will continue to fall, the bears have a solid foundation for being cautious about the markets.

You Don’t Have To Pick A Side.

So what do you do?

We believe there is enough to the bullish case to warrant a short-term rally, as discussed previously. However, the longer-term dynamics are bearish. 

But here is the crucial point – you don’t have to “choose.”

While many think you have to be either “bullish” or “bearish,” the reality is you don’t. In the short term, we can be “bullish” with our equity positioning. However, we can also be “bearish” in our longer-term views.

Regardless of whether you are bullish or bearish, there are some guidelines you can follow.

  1. Tighten up stop-loss levels to current support levels for each position. (Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)

  2. Hedge portfolios against significant market declines. (Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options, bonds.)

  3. Take profits in positions that have been big winners (Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue participating in the advance.)

  4. Sell laggards and losers. (If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)

  5. Raise cash and rebalance portfolios to target weightings. (Rebalancing risk regularly keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)

Notice, nothing in there says, “sell everything and go to cash.”

We remain more optimistic about the markets due to negative sentiment, seasonality, and high cash levels by fund managers. However, we remain cautious due to the broader macro risks.

There is little value in trying to predict market outcomes. The best we can do is recognize the environment for what it is, understand the associated risks, and navigate cautiously.

Leave being “bullish or bearish” to the media.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 04/05/2022 – 09:23

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Putin, Xi Open To ‘Direct Talks’ With Zelensky As Pentagon Fails To Confirm Russian Involvement In Bucha Killings

Putin, Xi Open To ‘Direct Talks’ With Zelensky As Pentagon Fails To Confirm Russian Involvement In Bucha Killings

Following months of badgering by the Europeans to take a more active role in stopping the conflict in Ukraine, President Xi is reportedly considering one-on-one talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (what would be the first round of direct talks between the two since the invasion began) following a round of lower-level talks.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin telegraphed on Tuesday that it would also be open to direct talks between Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin, but only if the two sides could first agree on a formal document outlining terms.

According to Bloomberg, Foreign Minster Wang Yi expressed a desire for China to take a more active role in cease-fire talks (as the Europeans have been begging Beijing to do) during a meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba (the meeting marked their first exchange since March 1).

However, Wang made no new commitments about mediating the conflict.

Wang noted that Xi had “comprehensively expounded” on the need for dialogue and peace talks, but the Chinese diplomat made no new commitments toward mediating the conflict. “China does not seek geopolitical interests, nor will it watch the event from a safe distance while sitting idle, or add fuel to the fire,” Wang said.

In a tweet about the meeting, Kuleba said he was “grateful” for his Chinese counterpart, and insisted that they both “share the conviction that ending the war against Ukraine serves common interests of peace.”

Following Xi’s video summit on Friday with European Union leaders, a senior Chinese Foreign Ministry official said a call between the Chinese and Ukrainian leaders has “always been on the agenda.”

Meanwhile, as the Europeans bandy about a proposal for more sanctions on Moscow (including a ban on coal imports) in response to (again, alleged) brutality in Bucha, the Kremlin denounced the allegations about “atrocities” in Bucha as an attempt to smear the Russian Army. Although the Kremlin declined to comment on the progress of peace talks, it didn’t outright reject the possibility of a meeting.

  • KREMLIN SAYS WE DON’T REJECT POSSIBILITY OF A PUTIN-ZELENSKIY MEETING BUT IT’S ONLY POSSIBLE ONCE A DOCUMENT HAS BEEN AGREED
  • KREMLIN DECLINES TO COMMENT ON PROGRESS OF TALKS WITH UKRAINE KREMLIN SAYS ACCUSATIONS AGAINST RUSSIA OVER EVENTS IN BUCHA ARE WITHOUT FOUNDATION
  • KREMLIN SAYS THIS WAS CLEAR ATTEMPT TO SMEAR RUSSIAN ARMY
  • KREMLIN SAYS THIS WAS A MONSTROUS FORGERY
  • KREMLIN SAYS RUSSIAN INITIATIVES BEING BLOCKED IN UNITED NATIONS BUT WE WON’T REMAIN IDLE
  • KREMLIN SAYS WE KNOW NEW SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA ARE POSSIBLE, AMERICANS NOT LIKELY TO STOP ‘FAVOURITE PRACTICE’
  • KREMLIN, ASKED ABOUT BIDEN SAYING PUTIN SHOULD BE TRIED FOR WAR CRIMES, SAYS THIS IS UNACCEPTABLE AND UNWORTHY OF A U.S. PRESIDENT
  • KREMLIN SAYS EXPULSIONS OF RUSSIAN DIPLOMATS ARE REGRETTABLE, SHORT-SIGHTED, WILL INEVITABLY LEAD TO RECIPROCAL RESPONSE BY MOSCOW
  • KREMLIN SAYS RUSSIA IS NOT IN A RUSH TO SWITCH PAYMENTS IN ROUBLES FOR ALL EXPORTS
  • KREMLIN SAYS SUCH PROCESS SHOULD BE GRADUAL AND WELL-PREPARED

Finally, as the Europeans and Washington try to stoke international outrage over what President Biden described as “war crimes” in Bucha, Reuters pointed out Tuesday that even the Pentagon couldn’t confirm Moscow’s involvement.

Per the report, the US military “is not in a position to independently confirm Ukrainian accounts of atrocities by Russian forces against civilians in the town of Bucha” – although it has no obvious reason to dispute the account, either. One official who spoke anonymously called the images of the alleged atrocities “deeply troubling.”

The Kremlin, meanwhile, has vociferously denied allegations of Russian involvement in the atrocities, denouncing them as a “monstrous” forgery.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 04/05/2022 – 09:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/xdJi4bX Tyler Durden

Art Curator Accuses Princeton University of ‘Anti-Intellectual Surrender to Cancel Culture’


Princeton_I

Last December, Princeton University was slated to host an exhibition of 19th-century Jewish American artwork provided by Leonard Milberg, a Princeton alum and patron of the arts. Milberg pulled out, however, due to disagreements with the university.

In statements to The Daily Princetonian, a university spokesperson made it sound like Milberg was ultimately responsible for the exhibition not taking place. But both Milberg and the curator, art historian Samantha Baskind of Cleveland State University, tell a very different story: Princeton officials had objected to the inclusion of artwork by two 19th-century Jewish Americans who had served as soldiers in the Confederate army during the Civil War.

“Princeton forced the cancelation by canceling the two most important artists,” Baskind tells Reason. “It would be impossible to have an accurate show about nineteenth-century Jewish American art without its most outstanding figure: Moses Jacob Ezekiel.”

Indeed, a well-known piece by Ezekiel was intended to serve as the centerpiece. That work is “Faith,” a 64-inch marble statue completed by Ezekiel in 1876. It was commissioned by a Jewish fraternal organization to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence; a replica currently stands outside Philadelphia’s National Museum of American Jewish History.

Ezekiel is a complicated historical figure who fought for the Confederacy and supported the Lost Cause, the idea that the Civil War was about the southern states defending themselves from northern aggression. A second artist whose work would have been part of the exhibition, Theodore Moise, also served in the Confederate Army. But of course, history is filled with flawed people who nevertheless made important contributions to literature, art, science, and philosophy. Besides, the works in question had nothing to do with the Confederacy, and would have been displayed alongside labels that contextualized the artists and acknowledged their unsavory ties.

“History doesn’t come with neat, sanitized figures,” says Baskind. “Princeton canceled exactly the type of a show that a university should tackle.”

Problems arose last October, during the planning stages of the exhibition. That’s when the university’s vice provost for institutional equity and diversity became involved, according to Religion News Service. The administrator wanted Ezekiel and Moise dropped.

Milberg, who has previously contributed more than 13,000 pieces to Princeton’s collections, balked at the idea of modifying the showcase in order to satisfy administrators’ sensitivities.

“Once you start canceling things, it never ends,” he told The Daily Princetonian.

Baskind describes Princeton’s behavior as “an unfortunate anti-intellectual surrender to cancel culture.” She commends Milberg for refusing to sponsor historical revisionism.

“He took a very principled stand by choosing not to fund the exhibition after the library took curatorial matters in their own hands,” she says. “He disagreed with Princeton’s decision to censor the show and erase history.”

Jonathan Sarna, a professor of Jewish American History at Brandeis University whose work had informed the exhibition, also objected to Princeton’s capitulation. The fact that two of the most important Jewish American artists of the 19th century were Confederate soldiers is something that merits conversation, not censorship, says Sarna.

“One approach is that we have faith in the audience; we display in full complexity the material and talk about it,” Sarna told Religion News. “The other approach is that we cancel it. I’m very reluctant to be part of the woke, [part of] cancel[ing] everything that doesn’t conform to present-day moral standards.”

An institution of higher education might have expressed curiosity about the intersection of these subjects—the Jewish American experience, the Civil War, and 19th-century art—and invited its students to contemplate them. Princeton’s impulse was exactly the opposite: to bury the truth. (Princeton did not provide comment in time for this article’s publication.)

Of course, the issue here isn’t really the Princeton as a whole, but rather the fact that the relevant decision maker is a risk-averse diversity coordinator. As long as the office of institutional equity holds sway, liberal values like freedom of expression and diversity of thought will be threatened on campuses.

“Princeton’s effort to avoid any potential controversy was at the expense of a tremendous opportunity to show intriguing and exceptional art to their students, and to open up crucial conversations,” says Baskind. “A vital learning moment was lost.”

The post Art Curator Accuses Princeton University of 'Anti-Intellectual Surrender to Cancel Culture' appeared first on Reason.com.

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Twitter Appoints Elon Musk To Board Of Directors, Stock Jumps On Hopes Of More “Unwokeness”

Twitter Appoints Elon Musk To Board Of Directors, Stock Jumps On Hopes Of More “Unwokeness”

There was uncharacteristic radiosilence out of Twitter all day Monday following the news that Elon Musk has accumulated a 9.9% “passive” stake in the stock, with the clear intention of making substantive content changes in what has become a platform rules by snowflakes for snowflakes. Well, moments ago that silence was broken when TWTR dropped an 8K, in which it announced that the company will appoint Musk to the Company’s Board of Directors. 

The 8K also revealed that key provision that “for so long as Mr. Musk is serving on the Board and for 90 days thereafter, Mr. Musk will not, either alone or as a member of a group, become the beneficial owner of more than 14.9% of the Company’s common stock outstanding at such time, including for these purposes economic exposure through derivative securities, swaps, or hedging transactions.”

In other words, Twitter is seeking not so much to add Musk to the board as hoping to prevent him from buying even more of the company, or the full thing. To be sure, Musk may not have to even want to buy the entire company: as BofA wrote in its response to the Musk-TWTR news, all the billionaire may be after is learning what makes TWTR tick:

Stake opens up new possibilities

Based on early investor feedback, we think Street doesn’t expect an outright acquisition, but does see an increased potential for positive change at Twitter. The type of form used (13G) often indicates the investor isn’t seeking to acquire control, or to influence who controls it. Twitter is more vulnerable than some of its Internet peers to outside pressure because its founders don’t have special voting control. We see the news as positive for the stock as it opens up potential for Mr. Musk taking up a board seat and influencing vision and execution. We are also hearing feedback that stock is of greater risk to short sellers due to potentially higher retail interest/activity.

Musk could want changes to Twitter content policies

In January, Mr. Musk criticized Twitter’s feature of profile pictures linked to non-fungible  tokens, saying that Twitter has the wrong priorities. Posting a screenshot of Twitter’s new feature, Musk said “this is annoying” and followed up with criticism of crypto-related spam. On March 25, Mr. Musk conducted a Twitter poll asking his followers whether Twitter adheres to the principles of free speech. After more than 70% of the poll takers said no, he asked whether a new platform was needed and said he was giving serious thought to starting his own. We think Mr. Musk likely has some agenda for change at Twitter, which is both an opportunity, but also a risk as material changes (such as fewer restrictions on content) could drive more regulatory scrutiny and drive advertisers away. Other risk is that Mr. Musk is in a learning period, and could build competitive platform if Twitter does not agree to modify its content policies.

And while we await Musk’s response to Twitter, one thing is clear: the current management team at Twitter headed by woke CEO Parag Agrawal is as good as gone…

… while a look at the stock shows what happens when “get woke, go broke” flips into reverse: the mere possibility that Twitter will once again become a free speech platform instead of an echo chamber for rabidly self-fellating liberal “bluechecks”, has pushed TWTR stock higher by another 5% after yesterday’s record post-IPO surge.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 04/05/2022 – 08:41

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