“Shooting The Generals” – Nomura Says RIPieces To ‘Tactical Long’ In Stocks

“Shooting The Generals” – Nomura Says RIPieces To ‘Tactical Long’ In Stocks

The Put Spread Collar that Nomura’s Charlie McElligott mentioned this morning was re-struck around 3pm – so the today-expiring 4270 Puts are deep in the money now, and Dealers have since had to sell ~$3B of futures since yesterday’s highs, as we’ve slipped and then accelerated lower, in order to stay hedged.

VIX lurched higher…

Well, as the Nomura strategist explains in a note shortly after the bell, the new trade is SPX 29Jul 3320 / 3940 / 4385 PS Collar 12,700 x’s (Put Spread over), so the customer bot 4k SPX today 4000 Calls to offset this immediate “negative Delta” impact of the June hedge.  BUT…the Call settles into Cash on today’s close, so the Dealer needs to short ~$3B in futures on the bell to replace it (h/t J Pierce and H Homes).

When you add that to the projected ~$10.8B of Leveraged ETF flows for SALE we are currently estimated on their rebalancing into the close, we are talking pound-town.

The flows were ugly everywhere: Major + Sector ETF for sale: -$10,806.4

  • Major -$8,641.4

    • SPX -$2,228.7

    • NDX -$5,637.2

    • RTY -$449.9

    • INDU -$294.4

  • Sector -$2,165.0

    • Financial (incl. Bank) -$495.0

    • Tech (incl. Semicon, FANG+) -$1,486.8

    • Health Care (incl. Biotech) -$12.5

Not surprisingly then, the current netted-out MoC as of 350pm EST is ~$7.5B for sale.

And look, these mechancial flows matter…but as far as helping to get the macro ball rolling, there is no doubt in my mind too that:

1) US Equities market “shooting the Generals” of mega-cap FANG+ lore (AMZN shocker -15%, and mind-you, a top 5 “placeholder Long” position for the entire Global Equities manager universe)…and the

2) “hawkish re-escalation” globally due to data in both US (Employment Cost Index signaling “wage / price spiral” concerns, plus the Personal Spending upside surprise = OVERHEAT) and EU (where Core Inflation jumped +3.5% and forces the ECB’s hand for July, fully priced-in now)

…is also partially behind this latest wave of deleveraging and “Tightening Tantrum” – where this data is so dicey with both CB’s being viewed as “even further behind the curve” that we now see Fed Funds Futs ascribing ~40% odds of a Fed 75bps June (was actually 44% earlier before the Equities total meltdown)…all of this is part of this story today.

Seriously – Nasdaq 5 day rVol is 60 right now, as the mega-cap Tech “generals” are being executed 1-by-1:

And hilariously, after yet another massive “high to low” reversal in US Equities today, the CTA Trend potential “buy / cover” triggers that were in reach, which we spoke about this morning? 

Well, we are now a non-zero chance of seeing the S&P 500 position go from the current “+25% Long” signal to FLIPPING “-100% Short” on a close under 4083 in ES today, which would ~$16B estimated for sale.

RIPieces to my “Tactical Long” in Equities.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/29/2022 – 16:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/LiCdeNQ Tyler Durden

Audio books on British history


Queen Victoria statue

If you enjoy audio books and you’re interested in history, here is the first in a series of recommended books, based on what I have listened to in the past several years. All of these books are, in my opinion, well-narrated and informative. All are available from Audible.com.

Favorites

Bonnie Prince Charlie. By Carolly Erickson. Narrated by Steven Crossley. In the United Kingdom’s Glorious Revolution of 1688, the despotic Catholic King James II was forced to flee to France. From the continent, he and his descendants schemed about how to reclaim their throne. Eventually, James’s son, who styled himself James III, ended up living in Italy and married to a Polish princess. Their son, “Bonnie Prince Charlie,” snuck away from home to launch an audacious invasion of Scotland in 1745. Although much of the invasion fleet sank, the dashing and vigorous young prince rallied the Scottish Highlanders to his cause. Soon, he had conquered most of Scotland, and was within 100 miles of London. Although he was eventually defeated (a happy result, in my view), his biography is a wonderful tale of bravery and daring.

Empire: How Britain Made the Modern World. By Niall Ferguson. Narrated by Jonathan Keeble. The British Empire started out as an effort to molest Spanish holdings in the New World. After the British lost their empire in America, they built a new one based in India. Ferguson describes the complete story, both the bad and the good. On the whole, the British Empire treated its subjects better than did the competing empires. Often but not always, it brought many improvements, including in human freedom, to the places it ruled.

Nineteenth and early twentieth centuries

Bertie: A Life of Edward VII. By Jane Ridley. Narrated by Carole Boyd. The oldest son of Queen Victoria, Edward VII was King from 1911-21. In his 59 years before becoming king, he had an uneasy relationship with his parents and was often trying to extricate himself from problems caused by his gambling and womanizing. Yet he served the nation well as monarch, especially in building a close relationship with France.

Victoria: The Queen: An Intimate Biography of the Woman Who Ruled an Empire. By Julia Baird. Narrated by Lucy Rayner.  Not all princesses have an easy life. The young Victoria was caged and controlled by her mother, until the 18-year-old young woman maneuvered herself onto the throne. She was active monarch, often involved in political affairs. When she fell in love with Prince Albert of Saxe-Coburg and Gotha, protocol required that she be the one to propose. Thereafter, Prince Albert and Queen Victoria jostled for control, although eventually having nine children led her to cede political affairs to her hardworking and conscientious consort. Given her own dysfunctional family background, being a good mother did not come easily to her. Prince Albert’s death devastated Queen Victoria, and mental stability had never been one of her strengths. For years her residences were draped in black mourning crepe, and she refused to present herself to the public. Finally, she recovered, reigned well at the height of the Empire, and struck up a romantic relationship with a royal gardener, John Brown.

Prince of Pleasure: The Prince of Wales and the Making of the Regency. By Saul David. Narrated by Sam Devereaux. During two long periods when King George III suffered from debilitating mental illness, his son, the Prince of Wales, served as regent. Finally, he became king in his own right, reigning 1820-30 as George IV. Like his grandson Edward VII, George IV was often busy trying to extricate himself troubles caused by his liaisons, including a secret marriage to a Catholic woman.

London in the Nineteenth Century. By Jerry White. Narrated by Neil Gardner. The greatest city the world had ever known was only partly governable by the authorities, who struggled for decades to repress crime in the city’s many narrow and unlit streets. The city of opulence, squalor, creativity, stubbornness, and upward mobility would change the world, even as the city itself was continuing its tradition of never-ending change, not the least from the development of railroads and the resulting increase in personal mobility.

American Revolution

The Men Who Lost America: British Leadership, the American Revolution and the Fate of the Empire. By Andrew Jackson O’Shaughnessy. Narrated by Gildart Jackson.  One chapter on each of eight British leaders in the failed effort to suppress the American Revolution, including King George III, Lord North,  General “Gentleman John” Burgoyne, and Lord Cornwallis. Although sometimes portrayed as incompetents, they usually made good strategic and tactical decisions, based on the situation as they understood it at the time.

An Empire on the Edge: How Britain Came to Fight America. By Nick Bunker. Narrated by Robert Ian Mackenzie. The British perspective on the growing crisis in the American colonies, especially 1773-76. A vivid explanation of how most of the British political class reluctantly came to see military repression as the only solution to American demands to preserve what had already become the norm in America—formal allegiance to the Empire, but almost complete self-government, including on matters of trade. The tea tax that precipitated the Boston Tea Party and the violent resistance to unloading tea at other American ports had been, from the British point of view, a win-win that would provide better quality and less expensive tea than the Americans were buying from West Indies smugglers, and would bail the quasi-governmental British East India Company out of financial ruin. But Americans, who were obsessed with precedents and slippery slopes, disagreed. The rhetoric of Britain’s Glorious Revolution of 1688 had by the 1770s become mere platitudes in England, whereas Americans were imbued with that glorious spirit from the cradle.

The Stuarts

Rebellion: The History of England from James I to the Glorious Revolution. By Peter Ackroyd. Narrated by Clive Chafer. To the American founding generation, the lessons of seventeenth century England were omnipresent. In short, James I rejected his childhood education on the merits of constitutional monarchy, and attempted to rule as a despot. His son Charles I was even worse and was overthrown by Parliament and eventually executed. But England’s brief period as a commonwealth failed, and  degenerated into Oliver Cromwell’s military dictatorship. So Charles II, son of Charles I, was invited back from exile for the “restoration” of the monarchy. He reigned badly, and then his brother, James II, fast-tracked the nation to French-style absolutism. James II was overthrown in the 1688 Glorious Revolution, led by the Dutchman William of Orange (who became England’s King William III) and his wife Mary, daughter of James II by James’s first wife. Therefore, Britain became a constitutional monarchy, with Parliament in charge. This book concentrates on the political story, and is an excellent survey of Great Britain’s crucial century, which made the American colonists determined to keep their executives and standing armies under strict control.

Killers of the King: The Men Who Dared to Execute Charles I. By Charles Spencer. Narrated by Tim Bruce. Charles I eminently deserved his trial and execution in 1649. But his son, who became king in 1660, didn’t think so, and he tried to capture and execute everyone who had been involved. Some fled to Ireland, Massachusetts, or wherever else they could hide out under assumed identities.

The Tudors

God’s Traitors: Terror & Faith in Elizabethan England. By Jessie Childs. Narrated by James Adams. Although Queen Elizabeth I (reigned 1558-1603) had initially been somewhat religiously tolerant by the standards of her time, Spanish and Papal attempts to dethrone her radicalized her, and the oppression of Great Britain’s dwindling Catholic population became more severe than ever. The book tells the story through the aristocratic Vaux family, wealthy Catholics who attempted to follow their faith despite increasing persecution. When James I succeeded Elizabeth I in 1603, Catholics hoped that he would ease up, but he did not. And so the Vaux family found itself enmeshed in the 1605 Gunpowder Plot, which almost succeeded in its initial step, namely blowing up Parliament.

How to Be a Tudor: A Dawn-to-Dusk Guide to Tudor Life. By Ruth Goodman. Narrated by Heather Wilds. The Tudors, a Welsh family, ruled England and Wales from 1485-1603. Ruth Goodman’s wonderful book takes the reader into the daily material life of the period. What did people wear? How did they stay clean despite their aversion to bathing? What was the mandatory archery practice on Sunday afternoons like? To the maximum extent possible, the author has immersed herself in the Tudor material world—such as learning to bake the bread that could be made from the common grain of the time, or how to tailor fancy clothing. A great survey of daily life at all levels of society.

Before the Tudors

Lancaster and York: The Wars of the Roses. By Alison Weir. Narrated by Maggie Mash. From 1455 to 1485, England was consumed by the War of the Roses, a dynastic struggle between the House of York and the House of Lancaster. While the most of the fighting took place between Henry VI and his rival Edward IV, the book begins at the turn of the century with Henry IV, and shows how the events of the first quarter of the century, under Henry IV and V, created conditions that would lead to the war. Henry VI ascended the throne in 1421, and although he was personally very pious, he wasn’t up to the job of monarch. But his French Queen, Margaret of Anjou, did all she could to keep him in power, and was usually successful, including putting him back on the throne after nine years out of power in 1461-70. But he was deposed for good in 1471.

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Audio books on British history


Queen Victoria statue

If you enjoy audio books and you’re interested in history, here is the first in a series of recommended books, based on what I have listened to in the past several years. All of these books are, in my opinion, well-narrated and informative. All are available from Audible.com.

Favorites

Bonnie Prince Charlie. By Carolly Erickson. Narrated by Steven Crossley. In the United Kingdom’s Glorious Revolution of 1688, the despotic Catholic King James II was forced to flee to France. From the continent, he and his descendants schemed about how to reclaim their throne. Eventually, James’s son, who styled himself James III, ended up living in Italy and married to a Polish princess. Their son, “Bonnie Prince Charlie,” snuck away from home to launch an audacious invasion of Scotland in 1745. Although much of the invasion fleet sank, the dashing and vigorous young prince rallied the Scottish Highlanders to his cause. Soon, he had conquered most of Scotland, and was within 100 miles of London. Although he was eventually defeated (a happy result, in my view), his biography is a wonderful tale of bravery and daring.

Empire: How Britain Made the Modern World. By Niall Ferguson. Narrated by Jonathan Keeble. The British Empire started out as an effort to molest Spanish holdings in the New World. After the British lost their empire in America, they built a new one based in India. Ferguson describes the complete story, both the bad and the good. On the whole, the British Empire treated its subjects better than did the competing empires. Often but not always, it brought many improvements, including in human freedom, to the places it ruled.

Nineteenth and early twentieth centuries

Bertie: A Life of Edward VII. By Jane Ridley. Narrated by Carole Boyd. The oldest son of Queen Victoria, Edward VII was King from 1911-21. In his 59 years before becoming king, he had an uneasy relationship with his parents and was often trying to extricate himself from problems caused by his gambling and womanizing. Yet he served the nation well as monarch, especially in building a close relationship with France.

Victoria: The Queen: An Intimate Biography of the Woman Who Ruled an Empire. By Julia Baird. Narrated by Lucy Rayner.  Not all princesses have an easy life. The young Victoria was caged and controlled by her mother, until the 18-year-old young woman maneuvered herself onto the throne. She was active monarch, often involved in political affairs. When she fell in love with Prince Albert of Saxe-Coburg and Gotha, protocol required that she be the one to propose. Thereafter, Prince Albert and Queen Victoria jostled for control, although eventually having nine children led her to cede political affairs to her hardworking and conscientious consort. Given her own dysfunctional family background, being a good mother did not come easily to her. Prince Albert’s death devastated Queen Victoria, and mental stability had never been one of her strengths. For years her residences were draped in black mourning crepe, and she refused to present herself to the public. Finally, she recovered, reigned well at the height of the Empire, and struck up a romantic relationship with a royal gardener, John Brown.

Prince of Pleasure: The Prince of Wales and the Making of the Regency. By Saul David. Narrated by Sam Devereaux. During two long periods when King George III suffered from debilitating mental illness, his son, the Prince of Wales, served as regent. Finally, he became king in his own right, reigning 1820-30 as George IV. Like his grandson Edward VII, George IV was often busy trying to extricate himself troubles caused by his liaisons, including a secret marriage to a Catholic woman.

London in the Nineteenth Century. By Jerry White. Narrated by Neil Gardner. The greatest city the world had ever known was only partly governable by the authorities, who struggled for decades to repress crime in the city’s many narrow and unlit streets. The city of opulence, squalor, creativity, stubbornness, and upward mobility would change the world, even as the city itself was continuing its tradition of never-ending change, not the least from the development of railroads and the resulting increase in personal mobility.

American Revolution

The Men Who Lost America: British Leadership, the American Revolution and the Fate of the Empire. By Andrew Jackson O’Shaughnessy. Narrated by Gildart Jackson.  One chapter on each of eight British leaders in the failed effort to suppress the American Revolution, including King George III, Lord North,  General “Gentleman John” Burgoyne, and Lord Cornwallis. Although sometimes portrayed as incompetents, they usually made good strategic and tactical decisions, based on the situation as they understood it at the time.

An Empire on the Edge: How Britain Came to Fight America. By Nick Bunker. Narrated by Robert Ian Mackenzie. The British perspective on the growing crisis in the American colonies, especially 1773-76. A vivid explanation of how most of the British political class reluctantly came to see military repression as the only solution to American demands to preserve what had already become the norm in America—formal allegiance to the Empire, but almost complete self-government, including on matters of trade. The tea tax that precipitated the Boston Tea Party and the violent resistance to unloading tea at other American ports had been, from the British point of view, a win-win that would provide better quality and less expensive tea than the Americans were buying from West Indies smugglers, and would bail the quasi-governmental British East India Company out of financial ruin. But Americans, who were obsessed with precedents and slippery slopes, disagreed. The rhetoric of Britain’s Glorious Revolution of 1688 had by the 1770s become mere platitudes in England, whereas Americans were imbued with that glorious spirit from the cradle.

The Stuarts

Rebellion: The History of England from James I to the Glorious Revolution. By Peter Ackroyd. Narrated by Clive Chafer. To the American founding generation, the lessons of seventeenth century England were omnipresent. In short, James I rejected his childhood education on the merits of constitutional monarchy, and attempted to rule as a despot. His son Charles I was even worse and was overthrown by Parliament and eventually executed. But England’s brief period as a commonwealth failed, and  degenerated into Oliver Cromwell’s military dictatorship. So Charles II, son of Charles I, was invited back from exile for the “restoration” of the monarchy. He reigned badly, and then his brother, James II, fast-tracked the nation to French-style absolutism. James II was overthrown in the 1688 Glorious Revolution, led by the Dutchman William of Orange (who became England’s King William III) and his wife Mary, daughter of James II by James’s first wife. Therefore, Britain became a constitutional monarchy, with Parliament in charge. This book concentrates on the political story, and is an excellent survey of Great Britain’s crucial century, which made the American colonists determined to keep their executives and standing armies under strict control.

Killers of the King: The Men Who Dared to Execute Charles I. By Charles Spencer. Narrated by Tim Bruce. Charles I eminently deserved his trial and execution in 1649. But his son, who became king in 1660, didn’t think so, and he tried to capture and execute everyone who had been involved. Some fled to Ireland, Massachusetts, or wherever else they could hide out under assumed identities.

The Tudors

God’s Traitors: Terror & Faith in Elizabethan England. By Jessie Childs. Narrated by James Adams. Although Queen Elizabeth I (reigned 1558-1603) had initially been somewhat religiously tolerant by the standards of her time, Spanish and Papal attempts to dethrone her radicalized her, and the oppression of Great Britain’s dwindling Catholic population became more severe than ever. The book tells the story through the aristocratic Vaux family, wealthy Catholics who attempted to follow their faith despite increasing persecution. When James I succeeded Elizabeth I in 1603, Catholics hoped that he would ease up, but he did not. And so the Vaux family found itself enmeshed in the 1605 Gunpowder Plot, which almost succeeded in its initial step, namely blowing up Parliament.

How to Be a Tudor: A Dawn-to-Dusk Guide to Tudor Life. By Ruth Goodman. Narrated by Heather Wilds. The Tudors, a Welsh family, ruled England and Wales from 1485-1603. Ruth Goodman’s wonderful book takes the reader into the daily material life of the period. What did people wear? How did they stay clean despite their aversion to bathing? What was the mandatory archery practice on Sunday afternoons like? To the maximum extent possible, the author has immersed herself in the Tudor material world—such as learning to bake the bread that could be made from the common grain of the time, or how to tailor fancy clothing. A great survey of daily life at all levels of society.

Before the Tudors

Lancaster and York: The Wars of the Roses. By Alison Weir. Narrated by Maggie Mash. From 1455 to 1485, England was consumed by the War of the Roses, a dynastic struggle between the House of York and the House of Lancaster. While the most of the fighting took place between Henry VI and his rival Edward IV, the book begins at the turn of the century with Henry IV, and shows how the events of the first quarter of the century, under Henry IV and V, created conditions that would lead to the war. Henry VI ascended the throne in 1421, and although he was personally very pious, he wasn’t up to the job of monarch. But his French Queen, Margaret of Anjou, did all she could to keep him in power, and was usually successful, including putting him back on the throne after nine years out of power in 1461-70. But he was deposed for good in 1471.

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Jimmy Wales: What Wikipedia Got Right About Social Media


Comp 1 (0-00-00-00)_1

Wikipedia, “the free encyclopedia that anyone can edit,” went from being a weird online experiment 21 years ago to one of the mainstays of the modern internet with astonishing speed. Even more astonishing, it has maintained its reputation and functionality since its founding, even as the rest of the social internet seems hellbent on tearing itself apart.

As Twitter, Facebook, and others are consumed with controversy over moderation, governance, and the definition of free speech, Wikipedia continues to quietly grow in utility, trustworthiness, and comprehensiveness. There are now nearly 6.5 million articles on the English version alone, and it has held its place in the top 15 most-visited sites on the internet for well over a decade.

Reason Editor in Chief Katherine Mangu-Ward spoke with Wikipedia’s Jimmy Wales, about what he got right—and what he’s worried about as politicians all around the globe are pushing for more control of online content.

A key ingredient to Wikipedia’s success, says Wales, is its high degree of decentralization. After this interview was conducted, Elon Musk made a bid to buy Twitter, bringing new salience to the battle over who controls the flow of information (and disinformation) online.

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“A Request for an Extension the Day of a Deadline Is Poor Professional Practice”

A reminder from Judge Paul Byron (M.D. Fla.) in Edgar County Watchdogs, Inc. v. Kurowski. My sense is that a judge’s willingness to expressly say this in an order shows that he’s more than a little annoyed with the offending behavior.

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Not The 1970s Or The 1920s: We’re In Uncharted Territory

Not The 1970s Or The 1920s: We’re In Uncharted Territory

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

All of these similarities and differences are setting up a sea-change revaluation of capital, resources and labor that will be on the same scale as the extraordinary transitions of the 1920s and 1970s.

The awakening of inflation after decades of slumber has triggered a flurry of comparisons to the 1970s accompanied by a chorus of projections for 1970s-type stagflation, defined as inflation plus economic stagnation– limited or negative growth and high unemployment.

A less popular comparison is with the 1920s: a massive expansion of debt, an equally massive speculative bubble in assets and extreme wealth-income inequality, all against a backdrop of slowing growth and debt saturation.

Each of these eras shares certain characteristics with the present, but beneath the surface there are consequential systemic differences. Let’s start with the 1970s.

The oil shock that fueled inflation had two sources: 1) the oil-exporting nations took control of their hydrocarbon resources and repriced them in the context of 2) declining reserves and production in the West, particularly the U.S., which had been the Saudi Arabia of the world through the 1930s, 40s and 50s.

A second, much less understood dynamic was the immense investment required to clean up the U.S. industrial base. Pollution in the U.S. was out of control by the early 1970s, with toxic rivers catching fire and high levels of air pollution. The oil shock prompted federal regulations on pollution and improvements in the basic efficiency of appliances, vehicles, etc.

This was a major sea change for the entire industrial sector, and it required immense investments of capital and a painful learning curve. This diversion of capital depressed profits and acted as an economy-wide tax on the system. In today’s money, the overall cost of this transition was in the trillions of dollars.

The debt levels in the 1970s were by today’s standards absurdly modest. The cultural values of frugality and avoidance of debt still held, and there was resistance to heavy public-private borrowing that has completely vanished.

The demographics of the 1970s was also completely different from today. The 65-million strong Baby Boom generation was entering the workforce and starting families and enterprises. The demographic double-whammy was the mass entry of women into the workforce as opportunities and ambitions expanded.

Meanwhile, the energy picture was brightening under the radar as the development of newly discovered super-giant oil fields in Alaska, the North Sea and Africa began. It took many years to bring these new hydrocarbon sources online, but by the mid 1980s, the price of oil had fallen to lows that slashed the income of oil exporting nations, including the Soviet Union.

None of these conditions are present today. Much of America’s domestic production was offshored in the past 20 years, the demographics are no longer as favorable (soaring population of elderly and flatlined workforce) and the production from the super-giant fields brought online in the 1970s is declining. There are no new super-giant fields in the global pipeline to replace those in the depletion phase of declining production.

As for the 1920s: the parallels are debt saturation and speculative excess against a backdrop of an economy that feasted on debt-fueled spending and speculation while absorbing new technologies.

The differences are the U.S. still had immense natural resources and relatively limited infrastructure in the 1920a. While private debt was through the roof–$100 in a stock market account leveraged $900 in stock purchases due to the 10% cash margin requirement–federal debt was still modest compared to modern levels.

This set the stage for massive expansions of federal debt in World War II that funded sustained investments in infrastructure through the 1940s, 50s and 60s.

In the present, we have all the fragilities of the 1920s and few of the strengths. We have all the debt saturation and speculative bubble excesses but our resources have been heavily tapped and every sector of the economy is heavily indebted.

All of these similarities and differences are setting up a sea-change revaluation of capital, resources and labor that will be on the same scale as the tumultuous transformations of the 1920s and 1970s.

 

We’re in uncharted territory. More on these revaluations next week.

*  *  *

My new book is now available at a 10% discount this month: Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $8.95, print $20). If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/29/2022 – 16:21

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/JaYIDrN Tyler Durden

Jimmy Wales: What Wikipedia Got Right About Social Media


Comp 1 (0-00-00-00)_1

Wikipedia, “the free encyclopedia that anyone can edit,” went from being a weird online experiment 21 years ago to one of the mainstays of the modern internet with astonishing speed. Even more astonishing, it has maintained its reputation and functionality since its founding, even as the rest of the social internet seems hellbent on tearing itself apart.

As Twitter, Facebook, and others are consumed with controversy over moderation, governance, and the definition of free speech, Wikipedia continues to quietly grow in utility, trustworthiness, and comprehensiveness. There are now nearly 6.5 million articles on the English version alone, and it has held its place in the top 15 most-visited sites on the internet for well over a decade.

Reason Editor in Chief Katherine Mangu-Ward spoke with Wikipedia’s Jimmy Wales, about what he got right—and what he’s worried about as politicians all around the globe are pushing for more control of online content.

A key ingredient to Wikipedia’s success, says Wales, is its high degree of decentralization. After this interview was conducted, Elon Musk made a bid to buy Twitter, bringing new salience to the battle over who controls the flow of information (and disinformation) online.

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“A Request for an Extension the Day of a Deadline Is Poor Professional Practice”

A reminder from Judge Paul Byron (M.D. Fla.) in Edgar County Watchdogs, Inc. v. Kurowski. My sense is that a judge’s willingness to expressly say this in an order shows that he’s more than a little annoyed with the offending behavior.

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Nasdaq Collapses To Worst Month Since Lehman As Market Starts Pricing 75bps Hike In June

Nasdaq Collapses To Worst Month Since Lehman As Market Starts Pricing 75bps Hike In June

Remember how great the second half of march was!? Well that de-escalated quickly…

A 50bps hike is now a done-deal for next week’s FOMC meeting and STIRs are now pricing a near 50% chance of a 75bps hike in June (not helped by a record surge in the Employment Cost Index this morning)!!

Source: Bloomberg

That would be The Fed’s first 75bps hike since 1994!

And no, US equity markets are not “pricing in” that level of hawkishness… yet…

Source: Bloomberg

After starting the month with a panic-bid, Nasdaq ended April down almost 13%, its worst month since Oct 2008…

Source: Bloomberg

On the week, Small Caps were the worst (closely followed by Nasdaq) and that followed the puke last Friday…

And there was no signs of any rebalancing today as stocks were monkeyhammered lowered from just after the cash open (no thanks to AAPl and AMZN)and were utterly destroyed into the close… These were massive single-day moves

The S&P’s 3.6% puke is the worst day since June 2020 (as AMZN plunged 14% – its worst day since July 2006)

The Dow fell 1000 points today – erasing all of the second-half of March melt-up gains…

Overall, Nasdaq and Small Caps are now down over 22% from their highs, S&P down almost 13% and The Dow down just less than 10% from its record highs…

Source: Bloomberg

It appears ARKK is following the path of the rise and fall of 2000’s DotCom bust to the tick…

Source: Bloomberg

FANG stocks have lost over $1.6 trillion in market capitalization since their peak over $5 trillion in Nov 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Staples were the only sector to end the month green with Tech and Discretionary puking over 10% and Financials almost as bad…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX reversed all the late-March compression, spiking up to 33

It wasn’t just stocks that were clubbed like a baby seal in April, Bonds were a bloodbath with 10Y Yields soaring a stunning 54bps…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve steepened on the month but we note that 3s10s dipped back into inversion today…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar index (DXY) exploded higher in April – up almost 5% against its fiat peers (its biggest monthly jump since Jan 2015) – trading at its highest in 20 years…

Source: Bloomberg

The Yuan saw its biggest monthly drop against the dollar since Jan 1994…

Source: Bloomberg

April was the Ruble’s best month on record (going back to 1993)… so not “rubble” then?

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos had a very rough month with Bitcoin & Ethereum down around 15% in April…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Gold was pretty much flat on the month while copper collapsed (along with silver). Oil was higher on the month, albeit amid a headline-driven roller-coaster of swings…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold ended April back above $1900… barely…

Retail gas prices were down on the month but have been rising for the last two weeks or so and look set to extend their gains, erasing any benefits from Biden’s SPR plan…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, it is worth noting that global bond and stock markets are down almost $25 trillion since the peak in Nov 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

And April was the worst month for a Bond/Stock portfolio since Feb 2009…

Source: Bloomberg

How much more pain will Powell allow the market to take?

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/29/2022 – 16:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/AuQn5Jz Tyler Durden

New DHS Board Seeks To Counter What It Thinks Is Disinformation


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The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced Wednesday that it had formed a new board meant to counter disinformation. According to the Associated Press, the so-called Disinformation Governance Board will focus, in part, on Russian disinformation campaigns.

The board will be headed by Nina Jankowicz, a Wilson Center fellow who studies disinformation and technology. In the past, Jankowicz has advocated for an anti-disinformation agency in testimony before the House’s Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. Regarding social media companies, she said that she “would like to empower a new oversight body to make sure that there is transparency and that the platforms are doing their due diligence by their users.”

But a government entity tasked with policing incorrect information online is both unlikely to succeed and also a potential threat to free speech.

To be sure, Russian-affiliated entities did engage in influence campaigns targeting the 2016 presidential election. (The actual effectiveness of these efforts is far from certain.) But many politicians and pundits in the years since have painted their ideological opponents as Russian agents spreading Kremlin propaganda. Some, including sitting senators, have referred to contrarian takes on Russian actions as “treasonous.” Even without a dedicated government entity, some politicians still tend to overprescribe the “Russian disinformation” label.

And there is reason to question Jankowicz’s appointment. After being announced as the head of the new board, some of her past tweets resurfaced regarding her promotion of the idea that the story of Hunter Biden’s laptop in October 2020 was a product of a Russian disinformation campaign. Indeed, at the time, Jankowicz referred to the official story—that then-candidate Joe Biden’s son abandoned his laptop at a Delaware repair shop—as a “fairly [sic] tale.”

In fairness, there was plenty in that story to be suspicious about: Before delivering the laptop to the FBI, a computer repair shop owner made a copy of the hard drive, which found its way to Rudy Giuliani and Steve Bannon, each close associates of former President Donald Trump. But despite the far-fetched details, The New York Times reported last month that the laptop’s contents had been authenticated. And that is exactly why the idea of a “disinformation” agency is so alarming: Multiple times, social media companies have responded to both public and political pressure to constrain users from sharing false stories that, with time, turned out to be either completely or partially true.

So far, there is very little information regarding the board’s methods or mission: DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas has given no specific details, and there is so far no mention of the board on the DHS website. On Thursday, Sen. Rob Portman (R–Ohio) issued a statement that he was “deeply concerned” about the board: “I do not believe that the United States government should turn the tools that we have used to assist our allies counter foreign adversaries onto the American people. Our focus should be on bad actors like Russia and China, not our own citizens.

On Wednesday, in announcing herself as the board’s executive director, Jankowicz tweeted that she will seek “to maintain the Dept’s committment [sic] to protecting free speech, privacy, civil rights, & civil liberties.” But earlier this month, in an interview with NPR promoting her recent book on online harassment, Jankowicz told host Michel Martin, “I shudder to think about if free speech absolutists were taking over more platforms, what that would look like for the marginalized communities all around the world… We need the platforms to do more, and we frankly need law enforcement and our legislatures to do more as well. And in other countries that are looking at this, you know, the U.K. has an online safety bill that’s being considered right now where they’re trying to make illegal this currently, quote, ‘awful but lawful content’ that exists online where people are being harassed.”

While a free and open internet may certainly facilitate abuse, it also represents one of the best ways for marginalized communities to offer and receive support. And it is not clear what she means by “free speech absolutists,” but it is chilling that she then advocates for legislation to constrict speech that, while distasteful, is protected by the First Amendment. If Democrats lose the White House in 2024, it is not difficult to imagine a President Trump, President DeSantis, or President Haley getting to appoint his or her own Disinformation Governance Board, tasked with pressuring social media platforms to disallow information embarrassing to the administration.

No government body should have the ability to determine what is and is not the truth, much less one headed by someone so hostile to free and unfettered speech.

The post New DHS Board Seeks To Counter What It Thinks Is Disinformation appeared first on Reason.com.

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