Court Blocks Florida Law Limiting “Puberty Blockers” and Cross-Sex Hormones for Minors

From Doe v. Ladapo, decided today by Judge Robert Hinkle (N.D. Fla.):

This action presents a constitutional challenge to a Florida statute and rules that (1) prohibit transgender minors from receiving specific kinds of widely accepted medical care and (2) prohibit doctors from providing it. The treatments at issue are GnRH agonists, colloquially known as “puberty blockers,” and cross-sex hormones. This order grants a preliminary injunction….

[II.] Gender identity is real

With extraordinarily rare exceptions not at issue here, every person is born with external sex characteristics, male or female, and chromosomes that match. As the person goes through life, the person also has a gender identity—a deeply felt internal sense of being male or female. For more than 99% of people, the external sex characteristics and chromosomes—the determinants of what this order calls the person’s natal sex—match the person’s gender identity.For less than 1%, the natal sex and gender identity are opposites: a natal male’s gender identity is female, or vice versa. This order refers to such a person who identifies as female as a transgender female and to such a person who identifies as male as a transgender male. This order refers to individuals whose gender identity matches their natal sex as cisgender.

The elephant in the room should be noted at the outset. Gender identity is real. The record makes this clear. The medical defendants, speaking through their attorneys, have admitted it. At least one defense expert also has admitted it. That expert is Dr. Stephen B. Levine, the only defense expert who has actually treated a significant number of transgender patients. He addressed the issues conscientiously, on the merits, rather than as a biased advocate.

Despite the defense admissions, there are those who believe that cisgender individuals properly adhere to their natal sex and that transgender individuals have inappropriately chosen a contrary gender identity, male or female, just as one might choose whether to read Shakespeare or Grisham. Many people with this view tend to disapprove all things transgender and so oppose medical care that supports a person’s transgender existence. In this litigation, the medical efendants have explicitly acknowledged that this view is wrong and that pushing individuals away from their transgender identity is not a legitimate state interest.

Still, an unspoken suggestion running just below the surface in some of the proceedings that led to adoption of the statute and rules at issue—and just below the surface in the testimony of some of the defense experts—is that transgender identity is not real, that it is made up. And so, for example, one of the defendants’ experts, Dr. Paul Hruz, joined an amicus brief in another proceeding asserting transgender individuals have only a “false belief” in their gender identity—that they are maintaining a “charade” or “delusion.” Another defense expert, Dr.

Patrick Lappert—a surgeon who has never performed gender-affirming surgery— said in a radio interview that gender-affirming care is a “lie,” a “moral violation,” a “huge evil,” and “diabolical.” State employees or consultants suggested treatment of transgender individuals is either a “woke idea” or profiteering by the pharmaceutical industry or doctors.

Any proponent of the challenged statute and rules should put up or shut up: do you acknowledge that there are individuals with actual gender identities opposite their natal sex, or do you not? Dog whistles ought not be tolerated.

[III.] The challenged statute and rules

The challenged parts of the statute and rules apply to patients under age 18. The statute prohibits the use of “puberty blockers” to “stop or delay normal puberty in order to affirm a person’s perception of his or her sex if that perception is inconsistent with the person’s [natal] sex.” And the statute prohibits the use of “hormones or hormone antagonists to affirm a person’s perception of his or her sex if that perception is inconsistent with the person’s [natal] sex.” The statute makes violation of these provisions a crime and grounds for terminating a healthcare practitioner’s license.

The statute has exceptions, including, for example, for use of these products during a transition away from them, but the exceptions are not relevant here. And the statute has other provisions, including a prohibition on transgender surgeries, but those provisions, too, are not at issue here.

The challenged rules were adopted by the Florida Board of Medicine and the Florida Board of Osteopathic Medicine. In identical language, the rules prohibit the Boards’ licensed practitioners from treating “gender dysphoria in minors” with “[p]uberty blocking, hormone, or hormone antagonist therapies.” …

[IV.] The standards of care

Transgender individuals suffer higher rates of anxiety, depression, suicidal ideation, and suicide than the population at large. Some suffer gender dysphoria, a mental-health condition recognized in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition (“DSM-5”). The diagnosis applies when specific criteria are met. Among other things, there must be a marked incongruence between one’s experienced gender identity and natal sex for at least six months, manifested in specified ways, and clinically significant distress or impairment.

There are well-established standards of care for treatment of gender dysphoria. These are set out in two publications: first, the Endocrine Society Clinical Practice Guidelines for the Treatment of Gender Dysphoria; and second, the World Professional Association for Transgender Health (“WPATH”) Standards of Care, version 8. I credit the abundant testimony in this record that these standards are widely followed by well-trained clinicians. The standards are used by insurers and have been endorsed by the United States Department of Health and Human Services.

Under the standards, gender-dysphoria treatment begins with a comprehensive biopsychosocial assessment. In addition to any appropriate mental-health therapy, there are three types of possible medical intervention, all available only to adolescents or adults, never younger children.

First, for patients at or near the onset of puberty, medications known as GnRH agonists can delay the onset or continuation of puberty and thus can reduce the development of secondary sex characteristics inconsistent with the patient’s gender identity—breasts for transgender males, whiskers for transgender females, changes in body shape, and other physical effects.

Second, cross-sex hormones—testosterone for transgender males, estrogen for transgender females—can promote the development and maintenance of characteristics consistent with the patient’s gender identity and can limit the development and maintenance of characteristics consistent with the patient’s natal sex. For patients treated with GnRH agonists, use of cross-sex hormones typically begins when use of GnRH agonists ends. Cross-sex hormones also can be used later in life, regardless of whether a patient was treated with GnRH agonists.

Third, for some patients, surgery can align physical characteristics with gender identity, to some extent. The most common example: mastectomy can remove a transgender male’s breasts. Perhaps 98% of all such surgeries are performed on adults, not minors.

The motions now before the court deal directly only with GnRH agonists.

The motions deal indirectly with cross-sex hormones, because to achieve their intended result, GnRH agonists are ordinarily followed by cross-sex hormones. The motions do not present any issue related to surgeries.

The court moves on to conclude that the standards of care are supported by “[t]he overwhelming weight of medical authority,” and cites the testimony of doctors in the case, concluding:

The clinical evidence would support, though certainly not mandate, a decision by a reasonable patient and parent, in consultation with properly trained practitioners, to use GnRH agonists at or near the onset of puberty and to use cross-sex hormones later, even when fully apprised of the current state of medical knowledge and all attendant risks. There is no rational basis for a state to categorically ban these treatments.

The record includes no evidence that these treatments have caused substantial adverse clinical results in properly screened and treated patients….

I find, based on the record now before the court, that the plaintiffs are likely to succeed on their claim that they have obtained appropriate medical care for their children to this point, that qualified professionals have properly evaluated the children’s medical conditions and needs in accordance with the well-established standards of care, and that the plaintiffs and their children, in consultation with their treating professionals, have determined that the benefits of treatment with GnRH agonists, and eventually with cross-sex hormones, will outweigh the risks. I find that the plaintiffs’ ability to evaluate the benefits and risks of treating their individual children this way far exceeds the ability of the State of Florida to do so. I find that the plaintiffs’ motivation is love for their children and the desire to achieve the best possible treatment for them. This is not the State’s motivation.

The court concludes that banning treatment with GnRH agonists and cross-sex hormones” likely “violates the Fourteenth Amendment’s Equal Protection Clause” because it discriminates based on sex and gender nonconformity, citing and elaborating on Brandt ex rel. Brandt v. Rutledge (8th Cir. 2022), which held likewise:

Consider an adolescent, perhaps age 16, that a physician wishes to treat with testosterone. Under the challenged statute, is the treatment legal or illegal? To know the answer, one must know the adolescent’s sex. If the adolescent is a natal male, the treatment is legal. If the adolescent is a natal female, the treatment is illegal. This is a line drawn on the basis of sex, plain and simple.

In asserting the contrary, the defendants note that the reason for the treatment—the diagnosis—is different for the natal male and natal female. Indeed it is. But this does not change the fact that this is differential treatment based on sex. The reason for sex-based differential treatment is the purported justification for treating the natal male and natal female differently—the justification that must survive intermediate scrutiny. One can survive—but cannot avoid—intermediate scrutiny by saying there is a good reason for treating a male and female differently….

Drawing a line based on gender nonconformity—this includes transgender status—also triggers intermediate scrutiny….

The court concludes that Florida’s arguments for why intermediate scrutiny are “largely pretextual” and don’t justify the law. (The analysis is too long for me to quote here; see the opinion for the details.) And it also concludes that plaintiffs are likely to prevail on their parental rights claims:

The defendants say a parent’s right to control a child’s medical treatment does not give the parent a right to insist on treatment that is properly prohibited on other grounds. Quite so. If the state could properly prohibit the treatments at issue as unsafe, parents would have no right to override the state’s decision. But as set out above, there is no rational basis, let alone a basis that would survive heightened scrutiny, for prohibiting these treatments in appropriate circumstances.

The court closes with this:

Gender identity is real. Those whose gender identity does not match their natal sex often suffer gender dysphoria. The widely accepted standard of care calls for evaluation and treatment by a multidisciplinary team. Proper treatment begins with mental-health therapy and is followed in appropriate cases by GnRH agonists and cross-sex hormones. Florida has adopted a statute and rules that prohibit these treatments even when medically appropriate. The plaintiffs are likely to prevail on their claim that the prohibition is unconstitutional. And they have met the other prerequisites to a preliminary injunction.

The post Court Blocks Florida Law Limiting "Puberty Blockers" and Cross-Sex Hormones for Minors appeared first on Reason.com.

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France Objects To NATO Opening Liaison Office In Japan

France Objects To NATO Opening Liaison Office In Japan

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

French President Emmanuel Macron objects to NATO’s plans to open a liaison office in Japan and thinks the alliance should stay in the North AtlanticFinancial Times reported on Monday.

NATO’s push to open its first office in the Asia Pacific is part of the US’s plans to get its Western allies more involved in its strategy against China in the region. NATO’s plans to open a Japan office were first reported by Nikkei Asia in early May, drawing a rebuke from Beijing.

V-22 Osprey aircraft at Japan base, Getty Images

People familiar with the matter told Financial Times that France’s position has complicated NATO talks on the Japan office, which have been ongoing for months. A French official said that Paris believes the NATO charter limits the alliance’s geographic range to the North Atlantic.

Macron has said publicly that he doesn’t think NATO should expand beyond the North Atlantic.

“If … we push Nato to enlarge the spectrum and the geography, we will make a big mistake,” the French leader said last week.

All 31 NATO members need to agree to open a new liaison office, meaning France could potentially block the move. News of France’s position comes nearly two months after Macron said Europe should not follow the US into a conflict with China over Taiwan.

NATO has had its eyes on China for a few years now, and Beijing has repeatedly warned the alliance to stay out of the region. “NATO’s continued eastward foray into the Asia Pacific and interference in regional affairs will inevitably undermine regional peace and stability and stoke camp confrontation,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said last month.

“This calls for high vigilance among regional countries,” the Foreign Ministry statement emphasized further. 

Tyler Durden
Tue, 06/06/2023 – 11:25

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“Worst I’ve Ever Seen It”: New Yorkers Wake Up To Massive Smoke Plume

“Worst I’ve Ever Seen It”: New Yorkers Wake Up To Massive Smoke Plume

In early May, wildfires in Western Canada, located thousands of miles away, blanketed the Northeast with smoke. Now the smoke has made its way back to New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Washington, DC, and Virginia, this time originating from wildfires burning across Ontario and Quebec.

Here’s the progression of the smoke plume from Canada pouring into the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast. 

New Yorkers woke up Tuesday morning to hazy skies. 

Accuweather warned, “The air quality in New York City is currently at an unhealthy level as smoke from wildfires in Canada continues to spread into the Northeast.” 

Air quality tracking website AirNow said air quality alerts have also been posted across New York, New England, throughout the Great Lakes, and as far south as Maryland. 

Over 100 wildfires are active in Northwestern Quebec and dozens of others in Ontario. Winds are carrying the smoke down into the Northeast. The dry conditions in Canada, potentially due to an emerging El Nino, may be why the region is experiencing an increase in wildfires this spring.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 06/06/2023 – 11:05

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Why The Equity Market Need Not Fear A Recession

Why The Equity Market Need Not Fear A Recession

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

The stock market may show greater resilience than usual through the next recession.

“The test of a first-rate intelligence,” said F. Scott Fitzgerald, “is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time.”

Where investors should employ this more than anywhere else is in the possibility that even in the event of a recession, stocks do not face as severe a selloff as they have in the past.

The recession obsession stems from the damage it can do to portfolios. The S&P sells off an average of 5% before a slump starts, and can go on to fall another 30% during the downturn itself. But price action suggests that this time stocks may not fare so badly.

First, though, recession risk is definitively rising, even if it isn’t a dyed-in-the-wool certainty.

One of the most comprehensive and reliable leading indicators of a recession is the Recession Gauge. It is made up of 14 recession sub-indicators that capture a wide array of market and economic-based conditions. The gauge triggers when at least six of them activate, signaling a recession in the next 3-9 months.

As the chart below shows, the gauge triggered in September, with the number of sub-indicators continuing to rise. The latest activated last week after Friday’s employment data showed a further decline in temporary help services, one of the most leading parts of the job market. This took the number of sub-indicators consistent with a recession to nine out of 14, the highest since 2008.

Last Friday’s employment data should not be taken taken as a sign a recession is likely to be avoided. Payrolls may have come in significantly stronger than expected, but data from the household survey showed the largest one-month rise in the unemployment rate since April 2020 (at the peak of lockdown).

Further, payrolls continued their deviation from household-survey employment, implying that almost two million more jobs than employees have been created since March last year. This is not a convincing sign of a robust employment market, while also leaving payrolls exposed to sharp declines as gig workers quit multiple jobs to take on one full-time position.

The two-million divergence is similar to the number of jobs the birth-death model has added to payrolls over the same period. The model is supposed to capture the net number of new jobs not picked up in the sampling period from newly formed and dying companies, and has been adding considerably more jobs since the pandemic.

The model may be right, but it becomes increasingly salutary to question it when payrolls starts to become an outlier. Notably, payrolls data has been diverging from the weakening ISM services (with Monday’s release confirming this trend). But subtracting the birth-death model’s adjustment from payrolls shows a much smaller discrepancy between the two series. (Strictly speaking we should use non seasonally-adjusted payrolls for the adjustment but this introduces other unwanted seasonal effects).

So if recessions are bad news for stocks and the risk of one occurring soon is heightened, why should this time be different?

Firstly, extremely narrow breadth can often be a sign of further strength.

Whenever the “Top 5” index (the top five S&P stocks by market cap) is outperforming the broad index by as much as it is today, it typically leads to marked outperformance in the S&P over the following three, six and 12 months.

That may be even more so today as the Top 5 index is still in the process of bouncing from very oversold conditions. The Top 5 shows overshooting/undershooting tendencies and looks to be in the process of overshooting to the upside, while the index of the residual, lowest market-cap stocks remains oversold and therefore has the potential to rally.

Secondly, broad price action is very constructive. I noted in April that a very reliable signal of long-term returns, the Coppock, triggered in March. It is usual for this signal to flash after a recession, or on occasion in the middle of the cycle (following the 1987 crash). It has never gone off immediately before a recession (assuming we get one very soon, which as above the Recession Gauge anticipates).

The greatest long-term risk for stocks is likely not a recession, but a resurgence in inflation (increased Treasury issuance after the debt-ceiling détente has the potential to create short-term weakness).

High-duration sectors such as tech are leading the advance, and are the most inflation-sensitive. But given China’s stall, the general disinflationary trend shouldn’t be disrupted over the next 3-6 months.

Cognitive dissonance is therefore advised, as equities have the potential to remain supported in the medium term, even if the lurking bogeyman of a recession strikes.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 06/06/2023 – 10:45

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In “Stunning Move”, PGA Tour And Saudi-Backed LIV Golf Agree To Merge

In “Stunning Move”, PGA Tour And Saudi-Backed LIV Golf Agree To Merge

In what the WSJ has dubbed a “stunning move”, the PGA Tour and LIV Golf, the Saudi-backed upstart that sent the industry into chaos when it teed off last year, have agreed to a merger that ends the divide that has dominated the sport for the last year. The agreement includes DP World Tour, also known as the European PGA Tour.

“After two years of disruption and distraction, this is a historic day for the game we all know and love,” PGA TOUR Commissioner Jay Monahan said in a statement.

The merger will end all pending litigation, and the two leagues will combine their commercial businesses into a new, yet-to-be-named company, according to CNBC, which adds the following:

LIV Golf is backed by the Saudi Arabia Public Investment Fund, an entity controlled by the Saudi crown prince and has been embroiled in antitrust lawsuits with the PGA Tour in the last year. The deal announced Tuesday would end all pending litigation.

PIF is prepared to invest billions of new capital into the new entity, CNBC’S David Faber reported on Tuesday. Terms of the deal weren’t disclosed.

As part of the agreement, the three groups will establish “a fair and objective process for any players who want to re-apply for membership with the PGA Tour or DP World Tour” following the end of the 2023 season, according to a release.

The parties said that the agreement combines the golf-related business from Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund with the commercial and business rights of the PGA Tour and European Tour into a new, collectively owned for-profit entity.

The deal comes soon after LIV golfer Brooks Koepka won the PGA Championship, one of four major titles in men’s golf.

LIV Golf, which has been spending top dollar to lure golfers, has also been the subject of controversy and criticism. Family members of those that perished in the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks have protested the league, including outside of events. Fifteen of the 19 hijackers on Sept. 11 from Saudi Arabia, and Osama Bin Laden, the mastermind behind the attacks, was born in the country. It has been concluded by U.S. officials that Saudi nationals helped fund the terrorist group al-Qaida, although investigations didn’t find that the Saudi officials were complicit in the attacks.

Former President Donald Trump has hosted a number of LIV Golf events at his golf courses. He has defended being the host of events, falsely claiming that “nobody’s gotten to the bottom of 9/11.” Last year, Trump also said on Truth Social that a merger between LIV and The PGA Tour was inevitable.

On Tuesday, Trump weighed in on the merger on his Truth Social platform: “Great news from LIV Golf. A big, beautiful, and glamorous deal for the wonderful world of golf. Congrats to all!!!”

And in markets, shares of Topgolf Callaway Brands and Acushnet jumped to session highs on the news. 

Read the full news release announcing the deal:

PGA TOUR, DP World Tour and PIF announce newly formed commercial entity to unify golf

PGA TOUR, DP World Tour, LIV Golf merge commercial operations under common ownership

Agreement establishes common goal to promote and grow the game globally for the benefit of all stakeholders, ends litigation

NEW YORK; RIYADH; PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Florida, June 6, 2023 – The PGA TOUR, DP World Tour and the Public Investment Fund (PIF) today announced a landmark agreement to unify the game of golf, on a global basis. The parties have signed an agreement that combines PIF’s golf-related commercial businesses and rights (including LIV Golf) with the commercial businesses and rights of the PGA TOUR and DP World Tour into a new, collectively owned, for-profit entity to ensure that all stakeholders benefit from a model that delivers maximum excitement and competition among the game’s best players.

In addition, PIF will make a capital investment into the new entity to facilitate its growth and success.  The new entity (name TBD) will implement a plan to grow these combined commercial businesses, drive greater fan engagement and accelerate growth initiatives already underway.  With LIV Golf in the midst of its second, groundbreaking season, the PGA TOUR, DP World Tour and PIF will work together to best feature and grow team golf going forward.

Notably, today’s announcement will be followed by a mutually agreed end to all pending litigation between the participating parties.  Further, the three organizations will work cooperatively and in good faith to establish a fair and objective process for any players who desire to re-apply for membership with the PGA TOUR or the DP World Tour following the completion of the 2023 season and for determining fair criteria and terms of re-admission, consistent with each Tour’s policies.  

“After two years of disruption and distraction, this is a historic day for the game we all know and love,” said PGA TOUR Commissioner Jay Monahan.  “This transformational partnership recognizes the immeasurable strength of the PGA TOUR’s history, legacy and pro-competitive model and combines with it the DP World Tour and LIV – including the team golf concept – to create an organization that will benefit golf’s players, commercial and charitable partners and fans.  Going forward, fans can be confident that we will, collectively, deliver on the promise we’ve always made – to promote competition of the best in professional golf and that we are committed to securing and driving the game’s future.

“We are pleased to move forward, in step with LIV and PIF’s world-class investing experience, and I applaud PIF Governor Yasir Al-Rumayyan for his vision and collaborative and forward-thinking approach that is not just a solution to the rift in our game, but also a commitment to taking it to new heights. This will engender a new era in global golf, for the better.”

“Today is a very exciting day for this special game and the people it touches around the world,” said PIF Governor Yasir Al-Rumayyan. “We are proud to partner with the PGA TOUR to leverage PIF’s unparalleled success and track record of unlocking value and bringing innovation and global best practices to business and sectors worldwide.  We are committed to unifying, promoting and growing the game of golf around the world and offering the highest-quality product to the many millions of long-time fans globally, while cultivating new fans.

“There is no question that the LIV model has been positively transformative for golf. We believe there are opportunities for the game to evolve while also maintaining its storied history and tradition. This partnership represents the best opportunity to extend and increase the impact of golf for all.  We look forward to collaborating with Jay and Keith to bring the best version of the game to communities around the world.”

Under the terms of the agreement, the Board of Directors of the new entity will oversee and direct all the new entity’s golf-related commercial operations, businesses and investments. The new entity will work to ensure a cohesive schedule of events that will be exciting for fans, sponsors and all stakeholders.  PIF will initially be the exclusive investor in the new entity, alongside the PGA TOUR, LIV Golf and the DP World Tour. Going forward, PIF will have the exclusive right to further invest in the new entity, including a right of first refusal on any capital that may be invested in the new entity, including into the PGA TOUR, LIV Golf and DP World Tour. The PGA TOUR will appoint a majority of the Board and hold a majority voting interest in the combined entity.

Separately, PGA TOUR Inc. will remain in place as a 501(c)(6) tax exempt organization and retains administrative oversight of events for those assets contributed by the PGA TOUR, including the sanctioning of events, the administration of the competition and rules, as well as all other “inside the ropes” responsibilities, with Jay Monahan as Commissioner and Ed Herlihy as PGA TOUR Policy Board Chairman.  PIF’s Governor Yasir Al-Rumayyan will join the PGA TOUR Policy Board. The DP World Tour and LIV Golf will retain similar administrative oversight of events on their respective Tours.

The Board of Directors of the new commercial entity will include Al-Rumayyan as Chairman and Monahan as Chief Executive Officer; the new entity’s Board will also include an Executive Committee comprising Al-Rumayyan, Monahan, Herlihy and PGA TOUR Policy Board member Jimmy Dunne.  The full Board will be announced at a later date, and it is anticipated that all three founding members will have representation.

Keith Pelley, Chief Executive of the DP World Tour, said “This is a momentous day. We are delighted to be able to not only reignite our relationship with PIF, but also to have the opportunity to build on our current Strategic Alliance partnership with the PGA TOUR.  Together we will be stronger than ever and well positioned to continue to bring the game to all corners of the globe. To partner in this new entity and influence the growth of the game for all our DP World Tour members is energizing and exciting.”

All parties will work in the months to come to finalize terms of the agreement, with details to be announced in due course.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 06/06/2023 – 10:30

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Kiev’s Long-Term “Last Resort” Plan To Blow-Up The Kakhova Dam Exposed

Kiev’s Long-Term “Last Resort” Plan To Blow-Up The Kakhova Dam Exposed

A day after Ukraine’s much-heralded counter-offensive appears to have failed, almost before it had even begun, a major dam in the Russian-occupied region of Kherson is suddenly bombed, prompting mass evacuations as floods spread across the region.

As we detailed earlier, both sides accuse each other of the attack that puts tens of thousands of homes at risk and might even threaten the safety of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant.

However, as Raul Ilargi Meijer writes, twice last year (here and here), Ukrainian officials discussed Kiev’s plans to blow up the dam.

Andrew Korybko lays out the real narrative here:

The partial destruction of the Kakhovka Dam on early Tuesday morning saw Kiev and Moscow exchange accusations about who’s to blame, but report from the Washington Post (WaPo) in late December extends credence to the Kremlin’s version of events.

Titled “Inside the Ukrainian counteroffensive that shocked Putin and reshaped the war”, its journalists quoted former commander of November’s Kherson Counteroffensive Major General Andrey Kovalchuk who shockingly admitted to planning this war crime:

“Kovalchuk considered flooding the river. The Ukrainians, he said, even conducted a test strike with a HIMARS launcher on one of the floodgates at the Nova Kakhovka dam, making three holes in the metal to see if the Dnieper’s water could be raised enough to stymie Russian crossings but not flood nearby villages. The test was a success, Kovalchuk said, but the step remained a last resort. He held off.”

His remark about how “the step remained a last resort” is pertinent to recall at present considering that the first phase of Kiev’s NATObacked counteroffensive completely failed on Monday according to the Russian Ministry of Defense. Just like Ukraine launched its proxy invasion of Russia in late May to distract from its loss in the Battle of Artyomovsk, so too might does it seem to have gone through with Kovalchuk’s planned war crime to distract from this most recent embarrassment as well.

The abovementioned explanation isn’t as far-fetched as some might initially think either. After all, one of complexity theory’s precepts is that initial conditions at the onset of non-linear processes can disproportionately shape the outcome. In this context, the first failed phase of Kiev’s counteroffensive risked ruining the entire campaign, which could have prompted its planners to employ Kovalchuk’s “last resort” in order to introduce an unexpected variable into the equation that might improve their odds.

Russia had over 15 months to entrench itself in Ukraine’s former eastern and southern regions that Kiev still claims as its own through the construction of various defensive structures and associated contingency planning so as to maintain its control over those territories. It therefore follows that even the most properly supplied and thought-out counteroffensive wasn’t going to be a walk in the park contrary to the Western public’s expectations, thus explaining why the first phase just failed.

This reality check shattered whatever wishful thinking expectations Kiev might have had since it showed that the original plan of swarming the Line of Contact (LOC) entails considerable costs that reduce the chances of it succeeding unless serious happens behind the front lines to distract the Russian defenders. Therein lies the strategic reason behind partially destroying the Kakhovka Dam on Tuesday morning exactly as Kovalchuk proved late last year is possible to pull off per his own admission to WaPo.

  • The first of Kiev’s goals that this terrorist attack served was to prompt global concern about the safety of the Russian-controlled Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant, which relies on water from the now-rapidly-depleting Kakhovka Reservoir for cooling. The International Atomic Energy Agency said that there’s “no immediate nuclear safety risk”, but a latent one can’t be ruled out. Should a crisis transpire, then it could throw Russia’s defenses in northern Zaporozhye Region into chaos.

  • The second goal is that the downstream areas of Kherson Region, which are divided between Kiev and Moscow, have now been flooded. Although the water might eventually recede after some time, this could complicate Russia’s defensive plans along the left bank of the Dnieper River. Taken together with the consequences connected to the first scenario, this means that a significant part of the riparian front behind the LOC could soon soften up to facilitate the next phase of Kiev’s counteroffensive.

  • In fact, the geographic scope of Kiev’s “unconventional softening operation” might even expand to Crimea due to the threat that Tuesday morning’s terrorist attack could pose to the peninsula’s water supply via its eponymous canal. The regional governor said that sufficient supplies remain for now but that the coming days will reveal the level of risk. While Crimea still managed to survive Kiev’s blockade of the canal for eight years, there’s no doubt that this development is disadvantageous for Russia.

  • The fourth strategic goal builds upon the three that were already discussed and concerns the psychological warfare component of this attack. On the foreign front, Kiev’s gaslighting that Moscow is guilty of “ecocide” was amplified by the Mainstream Media in spite of Kovalchuk’s damning admission to WaPo last December in order to maximize global pressure on Russia, while the domestic front is aimed at sowing panic in Ukraine’s former regions with the intent of further softening Russia’s defenses there.

  • And finally, the last strategic goal that was served by partially destroying the Kakhovka Dam is that Russia might soon be thrown into a dilemma. Kiev’s “unconventional softening operation” along the Kherson-Zaporozhye LOC could divide the Kremlin’s focus from the Belgorod-Kharkov and Donbass fronts, which could weaken one of those three and thus risk a breakthrough. The defensive situation could become even more difficult for Russia if Kiev expands the conflict by attacking Belarus and/or Moldova too.

To be absolutely clear, the military-strategic dynamics of the NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine still favor Russia for the time being, though that’s precisely why Kiev carried out Tuesday morning’s terrorist attack in a desperate attempt to reshape them in its favor. This assessment is based on the observation that Russia’s victory in the Battle of Artyomovsk shows that it’s able to hold its own against NATO in the “race of logistics”/“war of attrition” that the bloc’s chief declared in mid-February.

Furthermore, even the New York Times admitted that the West’s sanctions failed to collapse Russia’s economy and isolate it, while some of its top influencers also admitted that it’s impossible to deny the proliferation of multipolar processes in the 15 months since the special operation began. These include German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, former US National Security Council member Fiona Hill, and Goldman Sachs’ President of Global Affairs Jared Cohen.

The military-strategic dynamics described in the preceding two paragraphs will inevitably doom the West to defeat in the New Cold War’s largest proxy conflict thus far unless something major unexpectedly happens to change them, which is exactly what Kiev was trying to achieve via its latest terrorist attack.

The reason why few foresaw this is because Kovalchuk admitted to WaPo last December that his side had previously planned to blow up part of the Kakhovka Dam as part of its Kherson Counteroffensive.

It therefore seemed unthinkable that Kiev would ultimately do just that over half a year later and then gaslight that Moscow was to blame when the Mainstream Media itself earlier reported the existence of Ukraine’s terrorist plans after quoting the same Major General who bragged about them at the time. Awareness of this fact doesn’t change what happened, but it can have a powerful impact on the Western public’s perceptions of this conflict, which is why WaPo’s report should be brought to their attention.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 06/06/2023 – 10:20

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Mixed Reality

Mixed Reality

By Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank

A string of US economic data releases yesterday emboldened the view that the US economy is perhaps a little less resilient than previously thought. The final composite PMI number for May was revised lower as activity in the services sector showed less expansion than in the preliminary figure.  The ISM services index barely displayed any growth at all as new orders slowed and employment dropped below the critical 50 level.  Although ISM data indicated that prices paid remained robust, it dropped to a three year low.  This will likely come as a relief to the Fed and is certainly supportive of the view that the Fed can afford to pause its tightening cycle this month.  In the same vein, US factory orders for April registered softer than expected numbers.  The tone of the data brought to a halt the better tone of equity markets, took the steam out of yesterday morning’s oil price rally and initiated some downside pressure on treasury yields which weighed on the USD. 

Ahead of the June 13-14 FOMC meeting, most of the month’s key US data releases are now out of the way.  The obvious exception is the US CPI inflation report which is due on June 13. Since Fed officials will be adhering to the pre-FOMC meeting blackout period, there is a strong possibility that trading in US assets could be subdued for a few days. That said, T-bill issuance may draw more market attention that is often the case in the coming weeks as the Treasury plays catch up after restricting the issuance of paper in the run up to the debt ceiling deal. Yesterday’s 3- and 6-month t-bill auctions were both well received.

The AUD lurched into life last night on the back of a second consecutive surprise tightening from the RBA overnight. That said, the 25-bps rate hike was hardly a bolt out of the blue. The RBA has maintained a tightening bias and last week the risks of a move today had increased.  The April CPI print registered a quicker than expected 6.8% y/y, up from a previous reading of 6.3% y/y.  On Friday, Australia’s Fair Work Commission announced a 5.75% minimal wage increase and made a technical change to the classification for the national minimum wage which the union says will result in a hike of 8.6% for the lowest paid workers. This sparked market concerns that aggregate wage growth could top the 4% level, from 3.7% in the last quarter and supported the concerns of RBA Governor Lowe that a combination of weak productivity growth and higher wages deals in Australia could make it more difficult to push CPI inflation back to the Bank’s 2% to 3% target range. 

The RBA has been accused of being one of the most dovish G10 central banks. Following this morning’s rate hike its policy rate stands at 4.1%, which is below the levels of many of its peers.  Even so, the move has triggered the debate about whether the market could be underestimated the hawkishness of other central banks. Market forecasts of peak ECB interest rates have edged up since the start of the week, mostly on the back of yesterday’s hawkish commentary from ECB President Lagarde.  She underscored her full commitment to fighting inflation, describing price pressures as ‘strong’ and reiterating that there is no clear evidence that underlying inflation has peaked. Her comments are despite the recent round of softer CPI inflation readings in parts of the Eurozone. The headline rate for the region eased to 6.1% y/y in May from 7.0% in April, while the core measures edged down to 5.3% from 5.6%. This had resulted in some softening in market pricing for future ECB rate hikes and had strengthened the view that policy-makers were honing in on peak rates. 

Tyler Durden
Tue, 06/06/2023 – 10:00

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Tingo Group Annihilated After Hindenburg Calls It “Brazen Fraud” And “Humiliating Embarrassment For All Involved”

Tingo Group Annihilated After Hindenburg Calls It “Brazen Fraud” And “Humiliating Embarrassment For All Involved”

Perhaps shares of Tingo Group (TIO) should change their ticker symbol to “NGMI” because that seems to be the prevailing sentiment this morning after short seller Hindenburg Research released a report calling the company “a worthless and brazen fraud that should serve as a humiliating embarrassment for all involved.”

Shares were down nearly 50% heading into the cash open:

The claims in the report are astonishing, with Hindenburg taking shots at the company’s founder, Dozy” Mmobuosi, and calling its financials fabricated. 

“We’ve identified major red flags with Dozy’s background. For starters, he appears to have fabricated his biographical claim to have developed the first mobile payment app in Nigeria. We contacted the app’s actual creator, who called Dozy’s claims ‘a pure lie”,” Hindenburg writes

“We strongly suspect Tingo’s cash balance, which it conveniently claims is held in Nigeria, is fake. The company collected only ~12% of the interest income one would expect from its claimed cash balances,” they continue. 

The report takes exception with Tingo’s financials, indicating that it believes the numbers are fake:

  • Tingo’s financial statements are riddled with errors and typos, including a note to itself that it apparently forgot to delete, saying “please update for the tingle (sic) transaction including the tingle (sic) foods transaction”.
  • Its financials include other basic errors like incorrect math and leaving zeroes off key metrics.
  • More troublingly, Tingo’s cash flow and balance sheet statements do not reconcile and show major errors indicating a complete lack of financial controls. Its cash flow statements regularly subtract items from cash that should be added and vice versa.

The company took shots at a recent “groundbreaking” the company supposedly held:

  • In February 2023, the company held a groundbreaking ceremony for a planned $1.6 billion Nigerian food processing facility of its own, attended by the country’s agriculture minister and other political luminaries.
  • We found that the rendering of the planned facility, featured in Tingo’s investor materials and on a billboard at the ceremony, is actually a rendering of an oil refinery from a stock photo website.
  • Following its groundbreaking, Tingo reported in a May 2023 SEC filing that it made “significant progress” on the facility, including laying “the foundations of its numerous buildings”.
  • We visited the site a week later and found zero signs of progress; it was empty except for the plaque and billboard commemorating the groundbreaking ceremony, surrounded by weeds.

Hindenburg also takes shots at each of Tingo’s business segments.

“Tingo claimed in its reverse merger press release that members of 2 unnamed farming cooperatives supply the majority of its then-9.3 million userbase, consisting of local Nigerian farmers. These farmers supposedly form the core of the company’s phone customers and provide the agricultural products used in Tingo’s food processing and trading businesses. A local media outlet identified and contacted the cooperatives. Both said they had never heard of Tingo and had fewer than 100 farmers in each cooperative. Our checks with the Nigerian Communications Commission showed it has no record of Tingo being a mobile licensee at all, despite company claims of having 12 million mobile customers,” the short seller writes.

They also took aim at the company’s “TingoPay” product:

  • TingoPay (part of Tingo Mobile) claimed in 2021 to have launched a partnership with a major local bank.
  • Two days after Tingo’s blockbuster announcement, the bank put out a statement calling Tingo’s claim false and that it had “NOT concluded any agreement with Tingo International in respect of any payment system whatsoever”.
  • Tingo now claims its payment group has a point of sale (PoS) system and other merchant products. We found that pictures of Tingo’s claimed PoS system were taken from a different PoS operator’s website, with a Tingo logo photoshopped over them.
  • Tingo claims its “seed to sale” online marketplace called NWASSA generated $125.3 million in revenue last quarter or ~15% of its total revenue, yet the website has been “under maintenance” and inoperable for months.
  • Tingo claims it has launched its NWASSA platform in Ghana. The Ghana website also doesn’t work and just says “Updating…” without ever going anywhere.

Hindenburg concludes: “Overall, we think Tingo is a worthless and brazen fraud that should serve as a humiliating embarrassment for all involved. We do not expect the company will be long for this world.”

Tyler Durden
Tue, 06/06/2023 – 09:40

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What is the Significance of an Attorney General’s Confession of Error in a State Capital Case?

Currently pending before the Supreme Court is a certiorari petition filed by Richard Glossip, who was convicted eighteen years ago of commissioning the murder of Barry Van Treese in 1997. Glossip was sentenced to death for his crime. Glossip’s petition seeks review of an issue related to his purported discovery of “new” evidence, which he alleges was “concealed” by the prosecution.

The newly-elected Oklahoma Attorney General supports Glossip’s petition, as indicated by his support of Glossip’s earlier-filed motion for a stay of execution.

Yesterday, along with Kent Scheidegger of the Criminal Justice Legal Foundation, I filed an amicus brief for the Van Treese family and the Oklahoma District Attorneys Association. The brief urges the Court to deny further review. Here is the introduction from the brief:

This case involves Glossip’s effort to overturn an aggravated murder conviction that is nearly two decades old. The Oklahoma state courts have carefully reviewed that conviction and resulting death sentence. They have concluded that Glossip is guilty and his sentence is proper.

But in the last few months, a new Oklahoma Attorney General has arrived on the scene. For reasons that are unclear, he personally believes that a new trial is warranted—an opinion unanimously rejected by the Oklahoma Court of Criminal Appeals (OCCA) below as “not based in law or fact.”

The Attorney General’s opinion does not provide a basis for reviewing the decision below, which is fully supported by multiple independent and adequate state grounds. Any further delay would inflict enormous suffering on the Van Treese family. The Court should deny certiorari.

Our amicus brief goes on to argue:

The “new” evidence issue Glossip asks this Court to review was carefully considered by Oklahoma’s highest court for criminal cases. The OCCA reached the fact-bound conclusion that there was no “new” evidence—and thus no reason to doubt the integrity of Glossip’s convictions and sentence. No federal legal issue exists warranting further review. Such review is barred by adequate and independent state grounds for the OCCA’s decision.

In addition, the OCCA’s factual conclusions below were entirely correct. The purported concealment of evidence never occurred. And the dispute pertains to evidence that was not material to Glossip’s aggravated murder conviction.

At bottom, Glossip asks this Court to adopt the novel theory that, when a state Attorney General personally disagrees with a decision below, that unhappiness trumps all other procedural requirements. But “the proper administration of the criminal law cannot be left merely to the stipulation of parties.” Young v. United States, 315 U. S. 257, 259 (1942). This Court has no authority to give decisive weight to the Attorney General’s views over the OCCA’s—and there is no reason to do so given the trauma that any further delay would inflict on the victim’s family.

Two other amicus briefs were filed yesterday, both supporting Glossip’s petition. A brief filed by law professors Nora Freeman Engstrom et al. argues that the Court should review the issue of a prosecutor’s obligations in connection with correcting false testimony at trial. A brief filed by the Innocence Project argues that the OCCA failed to properly defer to the opinion of the Oklahoma Attorney General about this case.

Next month, response briefs will be filed by the Oklahoma Attorney General on July 5 and shortly thereafter by Glossip. The Court will decide whether to review the case in the fall.

My pro bono clients, the Van Treese family, released the following statement as we filed the brief yesterday:

While the Office of Attorney General is the highest law enforcement position in the state, this isn’t the wild west, and the Attorney General does not have the power of judge, jury, and executioner. My family hopes and prays that the U.S. Supreme Court will deny the petition and bring this case to a conclusion after 26 long years.

The post What is the Significance of an Attorney General's Confession of Error in a State Capital Case? appeared first on Reason.com.

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Stop Piling Charges on Mom of 6-Year-Old Shooter


Deja Taylor

Virginia shooter’s mom charged with being an unlawful user of a controlled substance in possession of a firearm. It’s inevitable that people want to legally blame Deja Taylor for the actions of her 6-year-old son, who brought a gun to school back in January and shot his teacher, Abby Zwerner. Perhaps Taylor does deserve legal culpability, though that certainly depends on the circumstances by which her son got his hands on the gun. In any event, state charges for child neglect and failing to properly secure a handgun should be sufficient to sort that out.

But law enforcement isn’t stopping there. Because those running our criminal justice system can’t seem to resist ruining lives to the maximum extent possible, Taylor also faces a federal felony gun charge.

Taylor legally purchased the gun that her son later used to shoot his teacher. But federal prosecutors say that Taylor is a marijuana user, and thus the purchase violated a federal prohibition on illegal drug users buying or owning firearms.

Keep in mind that recreational marijuana is legal in Virginia, where Taylor lives. But because marijuana is still illegal under federal law, prosecutors are still able to go after Taylor for violating the prohibition against illegal drug users owning guns.

The federal charges against Taylor highlight several related injustices. First and foremost, they showcase one of the ways in which continued federal criminalization of marijuana can still be used to target people in states where marijuana is legal.

The charges are also a reminder of how ridiculous federal gun control laws can be. Under the law in question, no one needs to prove that a gun was used in a drug-related crime, nor that drug use somehow contributed to a gun owner doing something reckless or violent. The mere fact that one has used marijuana (or any other criminalized drug) in the past 12 months renders one’s Second Amendment rights invalid, according to this statute. Consume marijuana even once during this period and your legally purchased and maintained gun suddenly becomes illegal.

Of course, plenty of gun owners also use marijuana and the vast majority will not face criminal charges. Enforcing this rule in a widespread way would be prohibitively difficult and invasive. But if one happens to get caught with marijuana and one owns a gun, it’s a different story.

The rule doesn’t stop drug users from owning guns so much as it adds an extra level of punishment to a prosecutor’s arsenal when they do bust someone for drugs. In this way, the law lends itself to being used in a discriminatory manner and as a bargaining chip to coerce people into pleading guilty to drug crimes.

It’s unclear how the feds came to suspect Taylor of using marijuana. But if she did, it means she lied on the federal background check required of gun users, which asks “Are you an unlawful user of, or addicted to, marijuana or any depressant, stimulant, narcotic drug, or any other controlled substance?” Taylor is now accused of saying no to that question “when in fact, as she knew then, she was an unlawful user of marijuana,” per charging documents.

Taylor stands accused in federal court of being an unlawful user of a controlled substance in possession of a firearm and making a false statement during a firearm purchase.

“The maximum sentence for the two federal charges is 25 years combined,” notes The Virginian-Pilot. “Taylor is expected to plead guilty to both charges by way of a plea agreement in the coming weeks.”

“The federal law that says marijuana users can’t simultaneously possess a firearm has come under increased scrutiny by federal judges in recent years as more states have moved toward weed legalization,” notes the paper:

In February, a federal judge in Oklahoma ruled the prohibition to be an unconstitutional infringement on the Second Amendment’s right to bear arms. That judge cited a U.S. Supreme Court decision from last year that said restrictions on gun rights can’t go beyond those that were in place at the time of the nation’s founding.

But in the Fourth Circuit, which includes Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, North Carolina and South Carolina, the restriction is still in place.

The drugs/gun law in this case also factors into potential charges against President Joe Biden’s son Hunter. If he is charged, Hunter Biden will reportedly challenge the law as unconstitutional.


FREE MINDS

Michigan’s Supreme Court will hear a case concerning whether police can use drones to warrantlessly spy on citizens. Last year, a state appeals court said it was OK for a town to use drone surveillance without obtaining a warrant. Reason‘s Joe Lancaster writes:

Todd and Heather Maxon live on a five-acre property in rural Long Lake Township on the northwest corner of Michigan’s Lower Peninsula. Todd likes to work on cars, so they keep vehicles on the property but hidden from the road. In 2007, the township sued the Maxons for storing “junk” on their property, a zoning violation. The couple fought back and won: The township agreed to drop the case and reimburse attorney fees, and in exchange the Maxons would not expand their collection.

According to the township, neighbors complained that the Maxons were still acquiring cars. But the cars weren’t visible from the road, making enforcement difficult. So the township hired a company to fly drones over the property and take pictures, which it did multiple times in the period from 2010 to 2018. The pictures allegedly showed that the number of vehicles had indeed expanded, so the township sued the Maxons for violating the previous agreement.

The Maxons moved to suppress the drone evidence as a Fourth Amendment violation, since the township never got a warrant. The trial court ruled against them, so they appealed to the Michigan Court of Appeals, which agreed with the Maxons. But on appeal from the township, the state Supreme Court remanded the decision back to the appeals court to determine “whether the exclusionary rule applies to this dispute.” (The exclusionary rule prevents evidence from being used at trial if the government violated the Constitution to collect it.)

On its second bite at the apple, the township was successful: In a decision written by Chief Judge Elizabeth Gleicher, the appeals court determined that the “exclusionary rule does not apply in this civil matter.” The inclusion of the word civil is important, because the decision hinged on the fact that this was not a criminal case. “The exclusionary rule is an essential tool for enforcing the meaning of the Fourth Amendment and discouraging law enforcement officers from trampling on constitutional rights,” Gleicher wrote. But since the township intended “not to penalize the Maxons, but to abate a nuisance,” she concluded, the exclusionary rule “serves no valuable function” in this case.

Now the state Supreme Court will weigh in once again.


FREE MARKETS

Obamacare legal battles continue, with “free” preventative services under scrutiny. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit will hear arguments today concerning the Affordable Care Act (ACA) mandate that health insurance plans must cover certain preventative services with no upfront cost to customers. The ACA says insurers must provide this “free” coverage for whatever services the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force deems appropriate.

Last September, a federal judge in Texas struck down the preventive care mandates issued by the task force and, in March, issued a nationwide injunction. In May, the 5th Circuit temporarily froze that ruling.

The appeals court must now decide whether to lift that freeze. If it does, “there would no longer be federal legal obligation for them to cover those services without cost-sharing,” as Andrew Twinamatsiko of Georgetown’s O’Neill Institute told Axios.

Either way, the ruling will likely be appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court.


QUICK HITS

• The Food and Drug Administration has revoked emergency authorization of Johnson & Johnson’s single-dose COVID-19 vaccine at the request of the company.

• Former Vice President Mike Pence has filed paperwork declaring he intends to run for president on the Republican ticket.

• “A state school board in Oklahoma voted Monday to approve what would be the first publicly funded religious school in the nation, despite a warning from the state’s attorney general that the decision was unconstitutional,” reports Yahoo News.

• “Hookup culture” is a myth, writes Cathy Reisenwitz.

• The death of self-driving cars is greatly exaggerated, suggests Timothy B. Lee.

• Texas is the latest state to ban gender transition treatments such as puberty blockers and synthetic hormones for minors.

• Vermont Gov. Phil Scott, a Republican, won’t approve a bill that makes it illegal for police to use deception and coercion in interrogations of minors and adults under 22 years old.

• Grammarly is supposed to flag things like grammar and spelling mistakes. But it’s also started flagging sentences for not being sufficiently progressive.

• Dan Drezner on the trouble with efforts to revamp CNN.

The post Stop Piling Charges on Mom of 6-Year-Old Shooter appeared first on Reason.com.

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