Month: September 2023

Jared Polis: Democrats Are ‘More Pro-Freedom Than Republicans’


Colorado Gov. Jared Polis and John Stossel | Stossel TV

Colorado has a popular Democratic governor, Jared Polis.

He’s a rare Democrat who says, “I’m for more freedom and lower taxes.”

But is he really?

At least he’s willing to come to Stossel TV to debate.

Refreshingly, Polis supports charter schools. He even founded two. Unfortunately, his state’s school choice program only applies to government schools. Florida, Arizona, Utah, Indiana, West Virginia, Iowa, and Arkansas now help parents send their kids to any school.

When I tell Polis that Colorado lags, he responds, “I’m not a fan of these voucher programs with no accountability where it can be Joe’s Taco Shop and K-8 academy and they’re getting taxpayer money.”

But it’s not true that independent schools have “no accountability.” They are accountable to parents, which is better than being “accountable” to sleepy government bureaucrats.

His state also launched universal preschool. But why? Even the much-praised Head Start program doesn’t help kids. A federal study found that by third grade, there was no difference between those who attend Head Start and those who don’t.

“Why fund something that makes no difference?” I ask.

Polis responds: “High-quality early childhood education leads to better outcomes.”

It probably would. But rarely does government offer “high quality.”

Another Polis mistake: He supported a higher tax on vape products.

“Vaping saves lives,” I point out. “It’s better than smoking.”

“Even though vaping has been effective in helping people get off of smoking,” Polis responds, “it’s also led to more nicotine addiction, especially among young people.”

But nicotine isn’t what kills.

At least, when it comes to legalizing marijuana and psychedelics, Colorado leads the country.

“It’s ultimately a matter of personal responsibility,” says Polis. “If you want to use marijuana, if you want to drink, if you want to smoke, that’s your prerogative. The government shouldn’t be deciding that for you.”

That’s good to hear.

Colorado produces lots of oil and gas. Polis is requiring 30 percent reductions for nitrous oxide emissions.

“Sounds like it will cripple the business,” I tell him.

“The oil and gas companies are going to be able to reach that,” Polis responds. “It simply means rather than moving oil and gas on trucks, they use pipelines.”

We’ll see how that works out.

Another area where we disagree: Polis opposed the recent Supreme Court decision that ruled a website designer should not be forced to create a wedding site for a gay couple.

“It’s OK to force me to make a website or cake for your marriage?” I ask.

“If you’re a public accommodation or storefront, you can’t say no Blacks, no Jews, no gays,” Polis responds. “Obviously, you don’t accept a commission to paint something or do something that you don’t agree with. There’s a gray area…what’s creative and what’s public accommodation.”

I don’t think it’s a gray area. Business owners should be free to make their own rules. They created the business. Consumers have choices. There’s more than one bakery or website designer.

Polis also criticized the court for declaring President Joe Biden’s student loan forgiveness unconstitutional.

I ask, “Why should someone who doesn’t go to college…have to pay for people like you and me who went to the same overpriced college [Princeton]?”

“There is a problem with costs in higher education,” replies Polis, dodging my question but admitting that government handouts raise prices. “Federal policy…helps fuel the increase in costs.”

Polis then claimed that Democrats are “more pro-freedom than Republicans.”

But most Democrats don’t want people left free to own guns, choose their kids’ schools, hire whom they want, or not bake cakes for people with whom they disagree. Sometimes I think abortion is the only choice Democrats support.

I complain to Polis, “Democrats got me pretty much banned from Facebook because I say climate change is not an emergency.”

“Why do you say it’s Democrats?” Polis replies, arguing that Republicans are more eager to ban social media. He points to Montana’s ban of TikTok. But of course, that’s not about censoring content; it’s about China’s ownership.

Polis and I talked for almost an hour about crime, equity versus equality, entrepreneurship, and more. We disagree but also find common ground. I’m glad he’s willing to debate. You can watch the whole interview at JohnStossel.com.

COPYRIGHT 2023 BY JFS PRODUCTIONS INC.

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WeWork To Renegotiate All Leases; Plans To Cut ‘Underperforming’ Offices

WeWork To Renegotiate All Leases; Plans To Cut ‘Underperforming’ Offices

WeWork CEO David Tolley published a letter on Wednesday morning, indicating the struggling co-working start-up “will seek to negotiate terms with our landlords” and “part of these negotiations, we expect to exit unfit and underperforming locations and to reinvest in our strongest assets as we continuously improve our product.” 

“As when we’ve closed locations in the past, we will promptly inform members and offer alternative arrangements and additional support to minimize any disruption or inconvenience,” Tolley wrote. 

Last month, WeWork stated in a 10-Q filing that “substantial doubt exists about the company’s ability to continue as a going concern.” Since WeWork continues to hemorrhage cash and liquidity is running thin, the money-losing business appears to be on its last leg. 

WeWork has shuttered locations in the past, and in those cases, it relocated members to other buildings and or towers that it leases. However, with the latest developments, cutting unprofitable office space might be an ominous sign that CRE markets are due for more turmoil.  

We asked this question several weeks ago: Could WeWork’s Potential Bankruptcy Be A Ticking Timebomb For CRE Markets?

*    *    *  

Here’s WeWork CEO David Tolley’s full letter:

WeWork is and has always been an industry leader. Through world-class workspaces and services delivered by a team committed to a first-rate member experience, we defined a category of our own and started a new era in how work gets done. This progress, however, has not come without its challenges. Following a period of unsustainable hypergrowth, WeWork has been on a years-long transformation to resize our cost structure, grow sustainable revenue and strengthen our balance sheet. All this while navigating a global pandemic.

As I shared a few weeks ago, despite the important actions we’ve taken over time to improve our company and real estate footprint, our current lease liabilities – which were over two-thirds of total operating expenses in the second quarter – still remain too high and are dramatically out of step with current market conditions. We are taking immediate action to permanently fix our inflexible and high-cost lease portfolio to achieve the sustainable operating model that we need to serve our members for many years to come. By addressing this reality now, we will be able to continue investing in and innovating our business on behalf of our members.

Today, we are kicking off a process of global engagement with our landlords to renegotiate nearly all our leases. We will seek to negotiate terms with our landlords that allow WeWork to maintain our unmatched quality of service and global network, in a financially sustainable manner. As part of these negotiations, we expect to exit unfit and underperforming locations and to reinvest in our strongest assets as we continuously improve our product. 

This process has no impact on our commitment to delivering for our members and, for the most part, we expect no changes to our day-to-day operations. We intend to remain in the majority of our buildings and markets. As when we’ve closed locations in the past, we will promptly inform members and offer alternative arrangements and additional support to minimize any disruption or inconvenience. 

Let me finish by making one thing clear: WeWork is here to stay. We will remain a global flex space leader and trusted real estate partner to our members. As companies of all sizes seek flexibility in where and how their employees come to work, this initiative best enables us to continue to invest in our products, services, and member experiences to meet evolving workplace needs far into the future. 

David Tolley 

Chief Executive Officer, WeWork 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/06/2023 – 11:30

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Maryland School Implements N-95 Mask Mandate After 3 COVID Cases

Maryland School Implements N-95 Mask Mandate After 3 COVID Cases

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

An elementary school in Maryland has reinstated mandatory mask requirements, as Joe Biden appeared in front of the press wearing a face covering Tuesday.

Rosemary Hills Elementary School in Silver Spring, a wealthy DC suburb, has brought back the mask mandate for students and staff, and added that the coverings should be N95 masks.

The school sent out a letter informing parents they have taken the decision after just THREE students tested positive for COVID.

“Additional KN95 masks have been distributed and students and staff in identified classes or activities will be required to mask while in school for the next 10 days, except while eating or drinking. Masks will become options again following the 10-day period,” the letter states.

We’ve heard that one before.

“At-home rapid test kids will be sent home and made available for students,” Principal Irwin Kennedy further notes, adding that CDC guidance decrees that testing should be done “5 days after an exposure (starting day 6)” or at such time as symptoms occur.

“We will continue to reinforce good hand washing and follow cleaning and disinfection procedures,” the letter further states.

The move comes as Joe Biden donned a face diaper as he arrived at a White House gathering, before removing it altogether.

The White House says Biden will wear the mask after his multiple time vaxxed and boosted wife contracted COVID again.

Related:

*  * *

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Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/06/2023 – 11:10

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Tropical Storm Lee To Become Major Hurricane, Threatens US East Coast

Tropical Storm Lee To Become Major Hurricane, Threatens US East Coast

Tropical Storm Lee was located approximately 1,265 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands early on Wednesday morning. Lee had maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and was moving west-northwest at 14 mph. 

“Continued steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Lee is expected to become a hurricane later today and a major hurricane in a couple of days,” NHC wrote in an advisory note. 

The advisory continued, “While it is too soon to determine the location and magnitude of these possible impacts, interests in this area should monitor the progress of Lee.” 

“Lee has already been strengthening fairly quickly despite some east-northeasterly vertical wind shear over the system,” NHC said. 

Long-range computer models have Lee swirling to the north and not impacting the US East Coast. However, extended forecasts are not concrete. 

WSVN meteorologist Phil Ferro said Lee will stay east of Florida while intensifying into a Category 4 storm. 

Meteorologists are uncertain about US impacts, though a more precise trajectory forecast will be seen in the next 24-48 hours. 

Even though the trajectory is uncertain, there is an agreeance among meteorologists Lee will rapidly intensify into a major hurricane in the coming days. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/06/2023 – 10:55

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Comedian Shane Mauss: Shrooms, DMT, Joe Rogan, and the ‘Psychedelic Renaissance’


changed-my-life | Illustration: Lex Villena

“I never pictured a world where marijuana would be anywhere close to legal, and it’s mind-blowing to me that mushrooms are being decriminalized everywhere,” says Shane Mauss, a comedian who tours the country discussing his psychedelic experiences.

Reason caught up with him at the Psychedelic Science 2023 conference, held in Denver this June, where he participated in a “roast” of the psychedelic scene. The conference was sponsored by the Multidisciplinary Association for Psychedelic Studies, or MAPS, and a reported 13,000 people gathered in The Mile-High City to discuss every aspect of drug policy, research, and culture.

Mauss, who also hosts a science podcast called Here We Are, shared his thoughts about the mainstreaming of psychedelic drugs, the surprising pace of legalization efforts, and the role that Joe Rogan and other public figures play in normalizing psychedelics.

Watch the full interview above.

Music Credits: “Cool on the Moon” by Alchemorph via Artlist

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A Consumer Credit Cycle Has Begun

A Consumer Credit Cycle Has Begun

Authored by Steven Vanelli via Knowledge Leaders Capital blog,

With government stimulus over, accumulated savings starting to become depleted, rents soaring, and student loans about to switch back on, it appears a credit cycle has begun where borrowers struggle to fulfill their financial commitments.

In the charts below, we identify the overall delinquency rate and then break it out by age cohort. We are focusing on the data series provided by the New York Federal Reserve about loans that are 90+ days late.

Starting with mortgage loans, the overall delinquency rate is 63bps, near record lows, likely due to the huge home appreciation of the last few years which padded the equity cushion for most homeowners. Even the youngest cohort (18-29 years old) has a delinquency rate only 30bps higher than the aggregate. Unlike the 2007-2011 period, the credit cycle is not playing out in the real estate market.

Let’s move on to some forms of consumer loans, where the story is a little more daunting.

Auto loans are definitely the epicenter of the credit cycle. While the overall average is a still somewhat tame 2.41%, younger borrowers are not keeping up. Younger borrowers have delinquency rates that are 1-2% higher than the average while the inverse is true for older borrowers. Eighteen-to-thirty-nine year-old borrowers have the highest delinquency rate in 13 years.

Somehow, I sense that used car lots are going to start filling up again as these vehicles get repossessed. This should put downward pressure on used car prices, bringing that element of inflation down. This is one of the channels through which monetary policy works.

Lastly, I’ll take a look at credit card delinquencies.

Here is where we can really see the stresses building.

  • First, the overall delinquency rate has about doubled from 2.5% to 5% over the last couple years.

  • Second, older borrowers have seen a tick up in delinquency rates, a feature we don’t really see in other credit products.

  • Third, one in 12 younger 18-29 year-old borrowers are 90+ days late making their credit card payments.

In conclusion, we are in the early days of a consumer credit cycle. Younger borrowers are the weakest link in this analysis, and this makes me wonder where rates go when student debt payments turn back on at the end of the month.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/06/2023 – 10:40

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Bank of Canada Holds Rate At 5%, As Expected, Sees Excess Demand Easing But Prepared To Hike More If Needed

Bank of Canada Holds Rate At 5%, As Expected, Sees Excess Demand Easing But Prepared To Hike More If Needed

In a day when we have seen some unexpected monetary policy decisions, including a surprise outburst from Erdogan who flip-flopped on Erdoganomics and said that Turkey may “reduce inflation with tight monetary policy” something he refuse toa accept for much of the past decade, as well as a surprise rate cut from Poland, which slashed rates by 75bps to 6.00%, much more than the 25bps expected, which was odd considering Poland still has 10% inflation, moments ago the Bank of Canada did not surprise markets when it kept policy rate unchanged at 5%, the highest level in 22 years (and up 475bps since March 2022) as expected.

“With recent evidence that excess demand in the economy is easing, and given the lagged effects of monetary policy, governing council decided to hold,” the bank said. Officials, however, remain “concerned about the persistence of underlying inflationary pressures” and are “prepared to increase the policy rate further if needed.”

While the rate pause and the accompanying statement suggested policymakers are comfortable waiting to assess whether the deteriorating economy will restore price stability, officials remainedd worried about persistent momentum in inflation and the statement sounded hawkish enough by keeping the language saying the Governing Council remains concerned about the persistence of underlying inflationary pressures, and is “prepared to increase the policy interest rate further if needed.”

Keeping that hawkish bias may allow Macklem to avoid a repeat of January’s explicit pause signal, which led markets to quickly price in future rate cuts and rekindled Canada’s housing market.

Regarding inflation, the central bank said there has been little recent downward momentum in underlying inflation. The longer high inflation persists, the greater the risk that elevated inflation becomes entrenched, making it more difficult to restore price stability. Canada 2y yield is higher by 2bp after the decision.

Some other commentary from the BOC decision, first on the economy:

  • Remains concerned about the persistence of underlying inflationary pressures.
  • There has been little recent downward momentum in underlying inflation.
  • The Canadian economy has entered a period of weaker growth, which is needed to relieve price pressures.
  • The tightness in the labour market has continued to ease gradually.

And on policy:

  • Decided to stand pat on rates due to recent evidence that excess demand in the economy is easing, and given the lagged effects of monetary policy
  • The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.
  • Prepared to increase the policy interest rate further if needed.

According to Bloomberg, with many central banks globally nearing or at their terminal point for rates, Wednesday’s decision suggests Canada’s six-member panel may soon transition the debate to how long they need to hold, instead of how restrictive policy should be.

Earlier on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia also kept its key interest rate unchanged and maintained a tightening bias. Consecutive pauses in that country imply a higher hurdle for any further hikes and suggest a surprise shift in economic data will be needed to prompt additional tightening.

After its January declaration, the Bank of Canada moved to the sidelines for five months, but resumed hiking in June and July after surprisingly strong economic growth. Still, there’s ample evidence the central bank has now done enough to cool excess demand.

Canada’s economy contracted in the second quarter, far below the bank’s estimate for a 1.5% annualized expansion. The labor market is loosening — job vacancies are falling and the unemployment rate continues to tick up — and the housing market has slowed.

“The Canadian economy has entered a period of weaker growth, which is needed to relieve price pressures,” the bank said. “This reflected a marked weakening in consumption growth and a decline in housing activity, as well as the impact of wildfires in many regions of the country.”

That said, with wage growth stuck around 4% or 5%, and inflationary pressures remaining broad-based, policymakers are seeing difficulty in the “last mile” of returning inflation to the 2% target. “The longer high inflation persists, the greater the risk that elevated inflation becomes entrenched, making it more difficult to restore price stability.”

The bank also kept the last three sentences of the rate statement the same, laying out key metrics policymakers will be monitoring, including the evolution of excess demand, inflation expectations, wage growth and corporate pricing behavior.

Macklem will shed more light on his team’s thinking and its outlook for the Canadian economy in a speech to the Calgary Chamber of Commerce on Thursday. The governor is scheduled to speak to reporters afterward.

The central bank’s next decision is due Oct. 25, after double releases of jobs, inflation and retail data, as well as gross domestic product numbers for July and an August estimate.

In response to the BOC hood, the Canadian dollar fell, reversing gains seen earlier in the session (which however may have also been driven by the stronger than expected Services ISM which sparked a surge in the Dollar index). USDCAD gained as much as 0.3% to 1.3676 before paring the advance, leaving the loonie near its March lows. Swaps market prices in roughly 29% chance of a rate increase at BOC’s October meeting, compared to 25% Tuesday prior to the decision.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/06/2023 – 10:23

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Services Surveys Signal Soaring Stagflation Risks

Services Surveys Signal Soaring Stagflation Risks

With manufacturing surveys still in contraction, and underlying components screaming stagflation as orders drop and prices pop, all eyes are on the ‘bigger’ Services sector surveys this morning which are expected to slip lower in August (but remain in expansion – above 50).

The S&P Global US Services PMI disappointed, declining from 52.3 (July) to 50.5 (final August), and below the 51.0 preliminary August print – weakest since January

BUT

The US ISM Services soared from 52.7 to 54.5 (well above the 52.5 exp) – strongest since February

Source: Bloomberg

In case you wonder why these surveys can be so completely opposed, it is survey responses like this…

A Real Estate worker said that:

“Overall conditions seem quite good, although there is definite slowdown in residential construction driven by rapidly increasing interest rates.”

A Government worker said that:

“Prices have settled. Warnings of a possible recession in 2024 are not being taken very seriously by top management. The same experts warned that the country would be in a recession by now. Our general feeling is that the (Federal Reserve’s) strategy for taming inflation and building a soft landing for the economy is working better than expected. The city has proposed reducing its municipal tax for the fiscal year beginning October 1.”

So a total joke with surveys pointing in completely different directions, but the message was similar under the hood with prices soaring…

Source: Bloomberg

The final S&P Global US Composite PMI Output Index posted 50.2 in August, down from 52.0 in July, to signal only a fractional increase in business activity at US private sector firms. The slowdown in growth stemmed from a weaker service sector expansion and a renewed decrease in manufacturing output.

“The survey data send a hint of rising stagflation risks, as stubborn price pressures are accompanied by a near-stalling of business activity.

“The PMI numbers for the third quarter so far point to a faltering of economic growth after a robust second quarter, as a renewed manufacturing downturn is accompanied by a deteriorating picture in the service sector. “

Not a pretty picture:

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

“While a post-pandemic revival of travel, recreation and hospitality spend contributed to an improved economic performance in the spring and early summer, this tailwind is losing momentum. Companies increasingly report customers to have become reticent to spend amid gloomier prospects as higher interest rates and the increased cost of living take their toll. However, financial services and business services providers are also increasingly feeling the pinch from weakening demand.

“Persistent wage growth is meanwhile being accompanied by renewed upward pressure on energy, fuel and transport costs, as well as some broader firming of materials prices, driving cost growth higher. Competitive forces have kept a lid on selling price inflation, but the rate of increase of service sector charges remains elevated to the extent that consumer price inflation is likely to remain stubbornly above the Fed’s target in the coming months.

“The key data to watch in the coming months will be the degree to which any further waning of demand for services translates into lower pricing power and reduced inflation.“

It looks like we’re gonna need more ‘Bidenomics’.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/06/2023 – 10:06

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With 22-Year Sentence, Ex-Proud Boys Leader Enrique Tarrio Pays Hefty ‘Trial Penalty’


reason-tarrio | Carol Guzy/ZUMAPRESS/Newscom

Yet another Proud Boy is paying a hefty “trial penalty” for January 6. On Tuesday, a federal judge in Washington, D.C., sentenced former Proud Boys leader Enrique Tarrio to 22 years in prison for his part in organizing the 2021 protest-turned-riot that obstructed Congress’ ratification of Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 presidential election.

Tarrio was not at the riot on January 6. He was in Baltimore, after having been arrested two days prior in a separate criminal case. He did however post messages encouraging the riot on social media and claimed credit for helping carry it out after the fact.

That was enough to convince a jury three months ago to find him guilty of “seditious conspiracy” for his involvement.

Prosecutors had sought a 33-year sentence for Tarrio. U.S. District Judge Timothy J. Kelly declined to go that far. But he did slap Tarrio with a sentencing enhancement for committing an act of terrorism.

His 22-year sentence is the longest any January 6 defendant has received to date. Fellow Proud Boy Ethan Nordean and Oath Keepers leader Stewart Rhodes have each previously been sentenced to 18 years in prison on seditious conspiracy charges as well.

Most other defendants, including many who directly participated in the riot, have received much more modest sentences of a few months to a few years.

“[Prosecutors] got a really long sentence by asking for something really absurd,” said C.J. Ciaramella on yesterday’s Reason Roundtable.  “In cases where January 6 defendants did plead guilty, expressed remorse, the judges were much more likely to go easy on them.”

Those like Tarrio who chose to take it to trial instead of pleading guilty are receiving sentences one might get for murder.

This is an example of what’s called the “trial penalty” whereby prosecutors, who would otherwise accept a much lighter sentence as part of a plea bargain, seek much harsher sentences for defendants who insist on a jury trial.

This practice has been harshly criticized by liberal and libertarian groups for effectively punishing people just for exercising their constitutional right to a trial by jury.

The American Bar Association found that average sentences for federal felony convictions are seven years longer for defendants who went to trial. Prosecutors’ preference for plea bargains also sees them layer on as many charges or stretch the applicability of vague statutes to coerce defendants into forfeiting their right to a trial.

The end result is that those convicted at trial go to prison for longer than even prosecutors think is necessary.

“Today’s sentencing demonstrates that those who attempted to undermine the workings of American democracy will be held criminally accountable,” said FBI Director Christopher Wray yesterday. And U.S. Attorney Matthew M. Graves said that those who used “force against their own government to prevent the peaceful transfer of power have now been held accountable.”

In other words, both Wray and Graves are satisfied that Tarrio had been held adequately accountable despite the fact that he ended up with a sentence that was a decade less than what the DOJ had advocated for. Their goal was securing a maximum sentence for Tarrio and others, not a sentence just long enough to hold them accountable for his crimes.

Tarrio and others receiving sentences of over a decade for their role in January 6 are hardly sympathetic figures. Yet the amount of time they’ll spend in prison is nevertheless a product of a trial penalty that is widely considered to be unjust. If one opposes these enhanced penalties in the routine administration of criminal justice, we should oppose them in the case of the January 6 defendants as well.

FREE MARKETS

Travelers to New York City can expect their next stay to be much more expensive, thanks to the city’s latest crackdown on Airbnb. On Tuesday, the city implemented new rules that make thousands of existing short-term rentals illegal.

Under the new regulations, those renting out their properties on Airbnb, VRBO, and the like must register with the city, be physically present during their guests’ entire stay, and limit themselves to no more than two guests at a time.

The Associated Press reports that only 300 short-term rental properties have successfully registered with the city, out of 3,800 pending applications. Airbnb has said that they won’t process reservations for unregistered properties.

Meanwhile, zoning restrictions adopted in 2018 and 2021 make it nearly impossible to build new hotels in the city, by requiring individual hotel projects to get special discretionary permits, which themselves require through potentially years of review.

The city’s hotel workers union pushed these restrictions to crack down on the construction of new, non-unionized hotels.

The upshot of all of these restrictions on supply is that it’ll be more difficult and more expensive for travelers to find a place to sleep when they visit New York City.

FREE MINDS

At least one government is telling the truth about UFOs. The Washington Post reports that the Brazilian government is far more transparent about its investigations into unidentified aerial phenomena. A snippet:

Early one August evening in 1954, a Brazilian plane was tracked by an unidentified object of “strong luminosity” that didn’t appear on radar. Two decades later, a river community in the northern Amazon jungle was repeatedly visited by glowing orbs that beamed lights down onto the inhabitants. In 1986, more than 20 unidentified aerial phenomena lit up the skies over Brazil’s most populous states, sending the Brazilian air force out in pursuit.

The stories are not the ravings of aUFO buff. They are official assessments by Brazilian pilots and military officers — who often struggled to put into words what they’d seen — and can be found in Brazil’s remarkable historical archive of reported UFO visitations.

Even more extraordinary? It’s all public record.

There are no security clearances. No heavily redacted documents. Anyone can access the files — the military reports, the videos and audio recordings, the grainy unverified photographs — and thousands of people have.

Read the whole thing here.

QUICK LINKS

  • Chris “Fronz” Fronzak, vocalist of metalcore band Attila has announced that he’ll seek the Libertarian Party’s nomination for president, reports LambGoat.
  • The family of a woman who died in the Maui wildfires last month is suing the state and a local landowner for allegedly neglecting their fire-prone properties, says NBC News.
  • At Astral Codex Ten, Scott Alexander unveils his presidential platform in which he proposes giving billionaires naming rights over new aircraft carriers (for a price) and appointing Donald Trump as a constitutional monarch.
  • The Endangered Species Act could force the Sioux Falls Zoo to destroy some decadesold, arsenic-containing taxidermied lions, tigers, and gorillas. Oh my!
  • The British government is for the moment backing off its plans to use new powers under an online safety bill to “scan messaging apps for harmful content” reports the Financial Times.

The post With 22-Year Sentence, Ex-Proud Boys Leader Enrique Tarrio Pays Hefty 'Trial Penalty' appeared first on Reason.com.

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Prolonged US Manufacturing Slowdown Barely Dents Energy Use

Prolonged US Manufacturing Slowdown Barely Dents Energy Use

By John Kemp, senior market analyst

U.S. manufacturers reported that business activity declined for the 10th month running in August, though declines are becoming less widespread implying the trough in the cycle may be approaching.

The Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing managers index increased slightly to 47.6 (16th percentile for all months since 1980) in August up from 46.4 (13th percentile) in July and 46.0 (11th percentile) in June.

Despite the improvement, the manufacturing index has been below the 50-point threshold dividing expanding activity from a contraction for ten months since November 2022.

The length of the downturn has more in common with a cycle-ending recession (which have generally lasted 11 months or more) than a mid-cycle slowdown (generally lasting eight months or fewer).

If the slowdown proves to be a “soft landing”, it will be the longest since the Second World War, matched in duration only by the slowdown in 1995/96, which also lasted 10 months.

The forward-looking new orders component remained weak which indicates the downturn is likely to persist for at least several more months, which would make it the longest mid-cycle slowdown on record.

The new orders index was just 46.8 (12th percentile) in August down from 47.3 (14th percentile) in July and down from 51.3 (26th percentile) a year ago.

Industrial electricity use and distillate fuel oil consumption are both correlated with the manufacturing and freight cycle and therefore with the purchasing managers index.

Both have fallen a bit less than expected given the length and apparent depth of the downturn in industrial activity, especially in the case of diesel and other distillate fuel oils.

Based on the most recent data available, industrial electricity consumption was down by 1.7% in the three months from March to May compared with the same period a year earlier.

The change in electricity use was in the 16th percentile for all overlapping three-month periods since 1980, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“Monthly energy review”, EIA August 31, 2023).

Distillate fuel oil consumption fell by 1.0% in the three months from April through June compared with the same period a year earlier.

The change in distillate consumption was in the 31st percentile for all three-month periods since 1980, which suggests that any downturn in industrial activity has been long but shallow.

Confirming the unexpected resilience in distillate consumption, the EIA has revised its estimate for distillate supplied up by a total of 23 million barrels (+1.6%) or roughly 63,000 barrels per day over the course of 2022.

The strength of domestic distillate consumption helps explain why fuel oil inventories have remained well below the prior ten-year seasonal average.

Resilient electricity and diesel consumption, and the correspondingly low levels of spare generating capacity and distillate inventories, imply the energy system is operating close to its maximum capacity.

In the event of a soft landing followed by a re-acceleration of the business cycle, capacity constraints will re-emerge quickly and likely lead to an early resurgence of inflation.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/06/2023 – 09:45

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/xcw2SFz Tyler Durden